Work in progress. This report is in active development.
Ratings and projections will change as the system is refined, and some
sections are not yet complete.
Ratings basis: 3994 2026 results, seeded with 2025Home field: +1.2 ptsGenerated October 18, 2026
Programs That Ended Their Season
First Flight (Kill Devil Hills) stopped on September 18 at 0-4: not enough players to continue the varsity season safely. The Outer Banks Voice
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy (Mooresboro) stopped on September 23 at 1-3: a large number of serious injuries and too few players remaining. WBTV
West Bladen (Bladenboro) stopped on September 24 at 0-5: not enough healthy players to take the field safely. WITN
Under NCHSAA rules, a school that stops mid-season forfeits each conference game it has left, and those count as wins for the opponents. Its other remaining games are no contest and count for no one.
Week 10 Projections
200 games. Sorted with the closest matchups first.
Thursday, October 22 — 1 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
North Edgecombe at North East Carolina Prepconf
North Edgecombe27–20
68%
Friday, October 23 — 197 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
South Brunswick at Fairmontconf
Fairmont22–22
50%
South Garner at Fuquay-Varinaconf
Fuquay-Varina23–22
52%
North Mecklenburg at Independenceconf
Independence23–22
53%
Reagan at West Forsythconf
West Forsyth23–22
54%
Wake Preparatory Academy at Nash Centralconf
Nash Central23–22
54%
Lakewood at Hobbtonconf
Lakewood23–22
55%
Enloe at Corinth Holdersconf
Corinth Holders23–21
55%
Washington County at Rocky Mount Preparatory
Rocky Mount Preparatory23–21
55%
Concord at Salisburyconf
Concord23–21
55%
Freedom at Alexander Centralconf
Alexander Central24–21
56%
Northampton County at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy
Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy24–21
56%
Bunker Hill at North Lincolnconf
Bunker Hill24–21
57%
Polk County at Avery Countyconf
Polk County24–21
57%
Charlotte Country Day School at Charlotte Latinconf
Charlotte Country Day School24–21
58%
Randleman at Ledfordconf
Randleman24–21
58%
Northwest Guilford at Parklandconf
Northwest Guilford24–21
59%
Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy] at Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (GA)conf
Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (GA)25–21
60%
Purnell Swett at Gray's Creekconf
Gray's Creek25–21
60%
Hunt at Rocky Mountconf
Rocky Mount25–21
61%
East Burke at East Rutherfordconf
East Burke25–21
61%
Bunn at Louisburg Magnetconf
Bunn25–21
61%
Garner at Claytonconf
Clayton25–21
62%
Franklin at Smoky Mountainconf
Franklin26–21
64%
Pamlico County at Lejeuneconf
Lejeune26–21
64%
Dixon at Richlandsconf
Dixon26–21
64%
Currituck County at Pasquotank Countyconf
Pasquotank County26–20
65%
Orange at South Granvilleconf
South Granville26–20
65%
North Wake Saints at GRACE Christian
GRACE Christian26–20
66%
East Rowan at South Rowanconf
South Rowan26–20
66%
Southwestern Randolph at Northwoodconf
Southwestern Randolph26–20
67%
West Rowan at Northwest Cabarrusconf
West Rowan26–20
67%
Lexington at Southwest Guilford
Lexington27–20
68%
East Gaston at West Lincolnconf
West Lincoln27–20
68%
Apex at Panther Creekconf
Panther Creek27–20
69%
Wilkes Central at Starmountconf
Starmount27–20
70%
Asheboro at Northeast Guilfordconf
Northeast Guilford27–20
70%
Pungo Christian Academy at Lawrence Academy
Pungo Christian Academy28–20
71%
South Johnston at Tritonconf
Triton28–20
72%
Central Cabarrus at West Cabarrusconf
West Cabarrus28–20
72%
Camden County at Manteoconf
Manteo28–20
73%
Reynolds at Enkaconf
Enka28–19
73%
Community Christian at Sandhills Classical Christianconf
Sandhills Classical Christian28–19
74%
Chapel Hill at Northernconf
Northern29–19
75%
South View at Saint Paulsconf
Saint Pauls29–19
75%
Carrboro at Cedar Ridgeconf
Carrboro29–19
75%
Ashbrook at Crestconf
Crest29–19
76%
The First Academy (FL) at Ambassador Christian School
Ambassador Christian School29–19
76%
North Henderson at West Hendersonconf
West Henderson29–19
76%
Princeton at James Kenanconf
James Kenan29–19
76%
Pine Lake Preparatory at Lincoln Charterconf
Pine Lake Preparatory29–19
76%
Wake Christian Academy at St. David'sconf
St. David's29–19
77%
Corvian Community at Christ the Kingconf
Corvian Community30–19
77%
Hendersonville at Mountain Heritageconf
Hendersonville30–19
77%
North Wilkes at Alleghanyconf
Alleghany30–19
77%
Martin County at Northeasternconf
Northeastern30–19
77%
Morehead at Rockingham Countyconf
Rockingham County30–19
78%
South Caldwell at Saint Stephensconf
Saint Stephens30–19
78%
Foard at Newton-Conoverconf
Newton-Conover31–19
80%
Pine Forest at Jack Brittconf
Jack Britt31–18
80%
Rosman at Swain Countyconf
Swain County31–18
80%
West Craven at SouthWest Edgecombeconf
West Craven31–18
80%
West Brunswick at Ashleyconf
Ashley31–18
81%
East Wake at Vance Countyconf
East Wake31–18
82%
North Johnston at North Lenoirconf
North Johnston31–18
82%
South Stokes at Chatham Centralconf
Chatham Central32–18
82%
Wayne Christian at North Raleigh Christian Academyconf
North Raleigh Christian Academy32–18
82%
Pinecrest at Hoke Countyconf
Pinecrest32–18
82%
Bear Grass Charter at Hobgood Charterconf
Hobgood Charter32–18
82%
Washington at Eastern Wayneconf
Eastern Wayne32–18
83%
Eastern Guilford at Northern Guilfordconf
Northern Guilford32–18
83%
Sun Valley at Marvin Ridgeconf
Marvin Ridge33–18
84%
Covenant Day at Carolina Bearcats
no rating for one side
—
West Mecklenburg at Hopewellconf
Hopewell33–18
85%
McMichael at Bartlett Yanceyconf
Bartlett Yancey33–18
85%
Parkwood at West Stanlyconf
Parkwood33–18
85%
North Duplin Jr Sr at East Columbus Junior-Seniorconf
North Duplin Jr Sr33–18
85%
East Surry at Forbushconf
East Surry33–18
85%
Felton Grove at Holly Springsconf
Holly Springs33–17
86%
Anson at Forest Hillsconf
Forest Hills33–17
86%
Farmville Central at Greene Centralconf
Greene Central34–17
86%
Franklinton at Wake Forestconf
Wake Forest34–17
87%
Laney at New Hanoverconf
Laney34–17
87%
Columbia at Mattamuskeetconf
Columbia34–17
87%
South Stanly at Mountain Island Charter
Mountain Island Charter34–17
87%
New Bern at Junius H Roseconf
Junius H Rose34–17
88%
West Johnston at Western Harnettconf
West Johnston34–17
88%
Harrells Christian Academy at Ravenscroftconf
Harrells Christian Academy35–17
88%
Asheville Christian Academy at Greenville Hurricanes (SC)
Greenville Hurricanes (SC)35–17
89%
Athens Drive at Broughtonconf
Broughton36–17
90%
Cape Fear at Terry Sanfordconf
Cape Fear36–17
90%
Mooresville at Statesvilleconf
Mooresville36–16
90%
College Prep and Leadership Academy at Bishop McGuinnessconf
Bishop McGuinness36–16
90%
Providence at Ballantyne Ridgeconf
Providence36–16
90%
Christ School at Metrolina Christian Academyconf
Christ School36–16
90%
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology at Olympicconf
Olympic36–16
90%
Western Alamance at Williamsconf
Williams36–16
90%
Mallard Creek at Butlerconf
Mallard Creek37–16
91%
Westover at Seventy-Firstconf
Seventy-First37–16
91%
Chambers at West Charlotteconf
Chambers37–16
91%
Wheatmore at Providence Groveconf
Providence Grove37–16
92%
Leesville Road at Rolesvilleconf
Rolesville37–16
92%
T Wingate Andrews at Montgomery Centralconf
T Wingate Andrews37–16
92%
Bertie at Gates Countyconf
Gates County37–16
92%
Union at East Bladenconf
East Bladen37–16
92%
Jacksonville at D H Conleyconf
Jacksonville37–16
92%
Pender at East Duplinconf
East Duplin38–16
92%
North Surry at West Stokesconf
West Stokes38–15
93%
Ardrey Kell at East Mecklenburgconf
Ardrey Kell39–15
93%
Lake Norman at Davie Countyconf
Lake Norman39–15
93%
Southern School of Energy and Sustainability at Hillsideconf
Southern School of Energy and Sustainability39–15
94%
White Oak at South Centralconf
South Central39–15
94%
Oak Grove at Glennconf
Oak Grove39–15
94%
Maiden at East Lincolnconf
East Lincoln40–15
95%
Overhills at Richmondconf
Richmond40–15
95%
J. F. Webb at Seaforthconf
Seaforth40–15
95%
Lake Norman Charter at Bradford Preparatoryconf
Lake Norman Charter40–15
95%
Riverside at East Chapel Hillconf
Riverside41–14
95%
Mount Pleasant at Monroeconf
Monroe41–14
95%
Heritage at Knightdaleconf
Heritage41–14
95%
South Lenoir at Southwestconf
Southwest41–14
96%
Grimsley at Dudleyconf
Grimsley42–14
96%
Western Guilford at Ragsdaleconf
Ragsdale42–14
96%
Bandys at West Iredellconf
West Iredell42–14
96%
Apex Friendship at Willow Springconf
Apex Friendship42–14
96%
American Leadership Academy - Johnston at Roanoke Rapidsconf
Roanoke Rapids42–14
96%
Myers Park at Houghconf
Hough42–14
96%
Ashe County at West Wilkesconf
West Wilkes43–14
96%
South Davidson Middle and at North Stokesconf
South Davidson Middle and43–14
96%
Cherryville at Stuart W Cramerconf
Stuart W Cramer43–14
96%
Jordan at Green Levelconf
Jordan43–14
96%
Wallace-Rose Hill at Rosewoodconf
Wallace-Rose Hill43–14
97%
Kings Mountain at Hussconf
Kings Mountain43–14
97%
Croatan at West Carteretconf
Croatan43–14
97%
Asheville School (Independent) at SouthLake Christian Academyconf
Asheville School (Independent)43–14
97%
Cuthbertson at Charlotte Catholicconf
Charlotte Catholic43–13
97%
Asheville at North Buncombeconf
Asheville43–13
97%
Pisgah at East Hendersonconf
Pisgah44–13
97%
Northside at Swansboroconf
Northside44–13
97%
Wilson Preparatory Academy at Sallie B Howardconf
Wilson Preparatory Academy44–13
97%
Watauga at McDowellconf
Watauga44–13
97%
East Carteret at Jonesconf
East Carteret47–12
97%
Cardinal Gibbons at Sandersonconf
Cardinal Gibbons45–13
97%
Douglas Byrd at E E Smithconf
E E Smith47–12
97%
Carver at Walkertownconf
Walkertown49–11
97%
Southern Nash at Northern Nashconf
Northern Nash45–13
97%
North Rowan at Albemarleconf
North Rowan44–13
97%
Millbrook at Wakefieldconf
Millbrook49–11
97%
South Point at Forestviewconf
South Point49–11
97%
R J Reynolds at East Forsythconf
East Forsyth44–13
97%
KIPP Pride at Warren Countyconf
Warren County54–9
97%
Rocky River at Palisadesconf
Palisades53–10
97%
Community School of Davidson at Langtree Charter Academyconf
Community School of Davidson47–12
97%
Fike at Charles B Aycockconf
Fike46–13
97%
Ayden-Grifton at Tarboroconf
Tarboro47–12
97%
Eastern Randolph at North Mooreconf
Eastern Randolph53–10
97%
Cummings at Southern Alamanceconf
Southern Alamance49–11
97%
Weddington at Piedmontconf
Weddington51–10
97%
Thomasville at East Davidsonconf
Thomasville46–12
97%
Holmes at Perquimans Countyconf
Holmes47–12
97%
Garinger at South Mecklenburgconf
South Mecklenburg44–13
97%
Arendell Parrott Academy at John Paul II Catholicconf
John Paul II Catholic49–11
97%
Cary at Middle Creekconf
Middle Creek49–11
97%
Southeast Alamance at Personconf
Southeast Alamance44–13
97%
Hoggard at North Brunswickconf
Hoggard45–13
97%
Whiteville at Red Springsconf
Whiteville49–11
97%
Mount Airy at Surry Centralconf
Mount Airy53–10
97%
A L Brown at Cox Millconf
A L Brown46–12
97%
Ben L. Smith at Pageconf
Page52–10
97%
North Davidson at North Forsyth Magnetconf
North Davidson48–11
97%
Kinston at Beddingfieldconf
Kinston49–11
97%
Scotland at Lumbertonconf
Scotland49–11
97%
Erwin at Robersonconf
Roberson45–13
97%
Lee County at Union Pinesconf
Union Pines46–12
97%
West Davidson at Trinityconf
West Davidson48–12
97%
Hickory Grove Christian at High Point Christian Academyconf
High Point Christian Academy46–13
97%
Wayne Preparatory Academy at Liberty Christian Academy
Liberty Christian Academy46–12
97%
Harnett Central at Southern Leeconf
Harnett Central50–11
97%
Cary Christian at Rocky Mount Academyconf
Cary Christian46–12
97%
Charlotte Christian at Providence Dayconf
Providence Day48–12
97%
Clinton at Heide Traskconf
Clinton46–12
97%
Southside at Northsideconf
Northside45–13
97%
Carson at Jay M Robinsonconf
Jay M Robinson47–12
97%
Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy at North Stanlyconf
North Stanly55–9
97%
Atkins at Mount Taborconf
Mount Tabor50–11
97%
Cleveland at Smithfield-Selmaconf
Cleveland55–9
97%
North Iredell at South Iredellconf
South Iredell45–13
97%
Harding University at Hickory Ridgeconf
Hickory Ridge47–12
97%
Mitchell at Madisonconf
Mitchell46–12
97%
Tuscola at Brevardconf
Tuscola49–11
97%
Southern Guilford at Southeast Guilfordconf
Southeast Guilford45–13
97%
Elkin at East Wilkesconf
East Wilkes53–10
97%
Andrews at Cherokeeconf
Cherokee44–13
97%
Draughn at Chaseconf
Chase47–12
97%
Patton at Hibritenconf
Hibriten55–9
97%
Highland Tech at Burnsconf
Burns57–8
97%
Shelby at Bessemer Cityconf
Shelby56–8
97%
Murphy at Hayesvilleconf
Murphy49–11
97%
Saturday, October 24 — 2 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy at Weldon STEMconf
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy41–14
95%
Mount Zion Christian Academy at Cabarrus Stallions
Title races and the RPI bubble → the conference title games still to play and the teams fighting for the last playoff spots, updated each week until the regular season ends.
Scoring tables are as played. Adjusted tables account for the opponent, so ten points conceded to a strong offense outranks a shutout of a weak one — the two disagree on purpose.
The official NCHSAA RPI standings, as published by the association on October 17, 2026 (nchsaa.org, powered by MaxPreps): 0.4 win percentage, 0.4 opponents' win percentage, 0.2 opponents' opponents'. Records are NCHSAA's, which can differ from ours where the association has ruled on a forfeit.
8A — 32 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Hough
8-0-0
0.77431
131.5
25.9
2
Chambers
8-0-0
0.75266
118.7
21.1
3
Millbrook
7-0-1
0.73052
123.1
24.6
4
West Forsyth
7-1-0
0.68781
116.7
25.3
5
Apex Friendship
8-0-0
0.67503
99.5
6.1
6
Mallard Creek
6-2-0
0.66735
113.9
32.1
7
Hoggard
7-1-0
0.66230
114.5
18.9
8
Myers Park
6-2-0
0.65074
105.9
24.2
9
Palisades
6-2-0
0.63300
105.2
22.0
10
West Charlotte
5-3-0
0.61940
99.3
31.9
11
Rolesville
5-2-1
0.61856
117.6
27.7
12
Green Hope
7-2-0
0.61283
90.2
3.3
13
Pinecrest
5-3-0
0.60993
102.1
23.1
14
Hoke County
5-3-0
0.60201
89.3
22.6
15
Jordan
5-3-0
0.57844
94.0
14.1
16
Leesville Road
5-3-0
0.56452
99.7
19.8
17
Panther Creek
5-3-0
0.55691
85.7
12.7
18
Ardrey Kell
5-3-0
0.55208
95.3
15.7
19
Providence
4-4-0
0.52927
92.6
20.5
20
Laney
3-5-0
0.52236
91.1
26.7
21
Broughton
4-4-0
0.51044
86.0
22.5
22
South Mecklenburg
3-5-0
0.45926
79.9
18.3
23
Wakefield
3-5-0
0.45731
79.3
22.4
24
Willow Spring
3-5-0
0.45302
73.5
13.5
25
Enloe
3-5-0
0.41734
81.3
16.9
26
Apex
3-6-0
0.41628
80.3
8.6
27
Corinth Holders
2-6-0
0.40753
81.9
22.4
28
East Mecklenburg
4-4-0
0.40335
73.9
3.5
29
Athens Drive
2-6-0
0.39220
70.1
20.8
30
Garinger
2-6-0
0.37897
51.0
9.8
31
Northwest Guilford
0-8-0
0.35313
71.1
31.3
32
Green Level
1-7-0
0.31144
65.9
10.4
7A — 60 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Weddington
9-0-0
0.78186
126.9
26.0
2
Grimsley
8-0-0
0.77491
122.4
22.8
3
Cleveland
7-1-0
0.72080
118.7
29.3
4
Clayton
8-0-0
0.71523
116.4
15.1
5
Lake Norman
8-0-0
0.69604
119.1
14.0
6
Reagan
7-1-0
0.69471
116.5
20.2
7
New Bern
6-2-0
0.68050
99.4
21.6
8
A L Brown
8-0-0
0.67981
105.1
10.3
9
Garner
6-2-0
0.67483
113.6
28.8
10
Marvin Ridge
7-1-0
0.67429
105.9
19.5
11
D H Conley
6-2-0
0.64956
91.2
12.7
12
Cardinal Gibbons
5-3-0
0.63497
112.7
28.9
13
Page
7-1-0
0.63236
106.4
10.9
14
Cape Fear
7-1-0
0.62589
94.4
4.2
15
Southeast Raleigh
6-3-0
0.61000
111.9
25.0
16
Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
5-2-0
0.60935
103.4
10.6
17
Wake Forest
6-2-0
0.60762
106.0
14.2
18
Davie County
5-3-0
0.60636
97.5
22.3
19
East Forsyth
5-3-0
0.58875
109.7
21.9
20
Hickory Ridge
6-2-0
0.58214
104.9
10.0
21
Hillside
6-2-0
0.56714
81.2
0.3
22
Mooresville
4-4-0
0.56674
103.4
27.4
23
Butler
4-4-0
0.56391
94.9
28.9
24
Ashley
5-3-0
0.56201
83.5
16.5
25
West Cabarrus
4-4-0
0.54063
80.9
17.6
26
Heritage
4-4-0
0.53179
82.9
17.4
27
Hopewell
5-3-0
0.52360
83.4
11.3
28
North Brunswick
5-3-0
0.51522
80.0
6.3
29
Holly Springs
4-4-0
0.51469
83.9
15.9
30
South Central
3-5-0
0.51456
87.3
21.2
31
Fuquay-Varina
3-5-0
0.49890
87.8
23.7
32
Richmond
3-5-0
0.49554
102.4
27.4
33
Jack Britt
3-5-0
0.48298
86.0
24.0
34
R J Reynolds
4-4-0
0.48257
79.6
7.8
35
Topsail
3-6-0
0.48244
81.0
21.2
36
Porter Ridge
3-6-0
0.47976
84.3
25.5
37
Pine Forest
3-5-0
0.46719
76.1
19.4
38
South Garner
3-5-0
0.45980
88.1
16.2
39
Ballantyne Ridge
3-5-0
0.45593
74.5
12.1
40
New Hanover
2-6-0
0.45541
75.5
19.6
41
Sanderson
4-4-0
0.45000
80.3
3.8
42
Independence
1-7-0
0.44948
85.1
31.8
43
Overhills
3-5-0
0.44509
81.0
12.8
44
Parkland
3-5-0
0.44386
67.5
5.9
45
Purnell Swett
3-5-0
0.42221
70.4
1.9
46
East Wake
2-6-0
0.41018
70.5
14.5
47
South Iredell
1-7-0
0.37586
72.6
26.4
48
North Mecklenburg
2-6-0
0.37537
85.0
15.7
49
Cary
3-5-0
0.37394
66.7
4.4
50
Chapel Hill
2-6-0
0.37283
46.0
-0.6
51
Southwest Guilford
1-7-0
0.37042
59.6
13.5
52
Cuthbertson
1-7-0
0.35113
66.8
18.9
53
Riverside
1-7-0
0.34869
56.1
10.2
54
Lumberton
1-7-0
0.34353
63.0
8.0
55
McDowell
1-7-0
0.34184
53.3
1.7
56
Cox Mill
2-6-0
0.34124
67.9
9.1
57
Smithfield-Selma
0-9-0
0.31690
57.0
20.2
58
West Mecklenburg
0-8-0
0.30208
71.0
17.9
59
Knightdale
0-8-0
0.28686
58.5
11.2
60
Rocky River
0-8-0
0.22148
50.3
6.8
6A — 58 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Junius H Rose
8-0-0
0.76162
113.8
22.1
2
Asheville
7-1-0
0.71730
96.7
17.9
3
Union Pines
7-1-0
0.70357
99.1
9.5
4
Jacksonville
5-2-0
0.69142
111.1
21.6
5
Scotland
7-1-0
0.67913
108.2
14.9
6
Roberson
6-2-0
0.67882
108.8
13.4
7
Asheboro
7-1-0
0.67858
90.6
9.1
8
Northern Nash
6-2-0
0.67799
109.2
17.8
9
Southern Alamance
6-2-0
0.67434
99.4
15.6
10
Middle Creek
6-2-0
0.67104
109.6
22.7
11
Williams
4-2-0
0.66354
92.1
18.1
12
Seventy-First
7-1-0
0.63705
103.3
7.3
13
Kings Mountain
6-2-0
0.63139
106.9
13.8
14
Harnett Central
7-1-0
0.62408
90.2
0.5
15
Franklinton
7-1-0
0.61467
92.4
-3.2
16
Freedom
7-1-0
0.61339
84.7
-1.9
17
Triton
7-1-0
0.60547
81.9
-1.4
18
Swansboro
6-2-0
0.58861
76.9
-3.9
19
Dudley
6-3-0
0.58410
96.6
14.8
20
Mount Tabor
4-4-0
0.57199
95.5
27.0
21
Charlotte Catholic
4-4-0
0.55041
94.0
26.6
22
Glenn
6-2-0
0.54764
83.2
1.5
23
Sun Valley
4-4-0
0.54420
93.7
26.6
24
Ashbrook
4-4-0
0.54116
97.2
14.9
25
Northern Guilford
4-4-0
0.53854
87.9
19.8
26
Westover
5-3-0
0.53527
86.0
5.7
27
Alexander Central
6-2-0
0.53461
85.6
4.1
28
Felton Grove
4-4-0
0.50552
70.9
5.2
29
South Johnston
4-4-0
0.50405
75.6
4.0
30
Eastern Guilford
3-4-0
0.50324
76.6
8.0
31
Reynolds
3-5-0
0.49961
77.7
11.4
32
Watauga
3-5-0
0.48996
83.8
10.4
33
Statesville
3-5-0
0.48092
85.4
18.5
34
Olympic
4-4-0
0.47573
81.8
13.4
35
Gray's Creek
4-4-0
0.46161
72.8
7.0
36
Ragsdale
3-5-0
0.45774
82.7
15.4
37
White Oak
2-5-0
0.45497
67.0
13.0
38
West Johnston
3-5-0
0.45321
68.7
10.2
39
South Caldwell
3-5-0
0.45276
63.4
7.3
40
Northern
4-4-0
0.44033
53.5
-9.5
41
Terry Sanford
3-5-0
0.43125
76.5
13.4
42
Central Cabarrus
2-6-0
0.43114
74.6
13.4
43
West Brunswick
2-7-0
0.41859
73.4
12.0
44
Piedmont
3-5-0
0.41407
75.9
7.8
45
Western Guilford
3-5-0
0.40871
58.8
3.3
46
South View
3-5-0
0.40446
78.0
8.5
47
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
3-5-0
0.40033
65.3
11.4
48
Saint Stephens
2-6-0
0.39314
72.4
4.5
49
Vance County
1-7-0
0.39032
58.0
15.4
50
Lee County
1-7-0
0.38878
65.7
9.9
51
Southeast Guilford
1-7-0
0.37401
66.1
13.4
52
Harding University
2-6-0
0.37189
67.6
10.0
53
Western Harnett
3-5-0
0.37188
52.4
-10.7
54
E E Smith
1-7-0
0.34701
74.4
12.1
55
North Iredell
0-8-0
0.34074
42.0
18.3
56
Southern Lee
0-8-0
0.30703
43.0
10.8
57
Ben L. Smith
1-7-0
0.27971
53.9
2.3
58
East Chapel Hill
1-6-0
0.27748
31.9
-18.8
5A — 57 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Southeast Alamance
8-0-0
0.75541
98.4
6.9
2
Crest
7-1-0
0.73887
105.2
18.3
3
South Point
8-1-0
0.72252
108.4
20.0
4
Jay M Robinson
8-0-0
0.70863
109.5
4.4
5
Northside
8-0-0
0.70470
107.0
10.5
6
Franklin
8-0-0
0.70183
98.4
1.7
7
Hunt
7-1-0
0.68055
90.0
10.8
8
East Lincoln
8-1-0
0.66291
103.1
11.3
9
West Rowan
6-2-0
0.66267
91.5
10.0
10
Fike
7-1-0
0.65933
101.7
3.6
11
Croatan
7-1-0
0.65808
93.7
4.3
12
Forest Hills
7-1-0
0.65002
85.6
1.7
13
Monroe
6-2-0
0.64615
105.1
16.6
14
Enka
7-1-0
0.64399
84.6
-1.0
15
Seaforth
7-1-0
0.64047
82.4
-10.3
16
Northwest Cabarrus
7-1-0
0.63382
85.1
2.7
17
Hickory
6-3-0
0.62477
107.6
14.8
18
Eastern Alamance
6-2-0
0.62237
96.0
8.7
19
Northeast Guilford
6-2-0
0.61993
96.2
9.0
20
North Davidson
6-2-0
0.60050
91.7
6.3
21
Oak Grove
6-2-0
0.59955
105.6
7.6
22
Smoky Mountain
7-1-0
0.59574
93.1
-5.7
23
Rocky Mount
6-2-0
0.59417
92.5
4.4
24
Havelock
5-4-0
0.59301
93.3
15.2
25
Western Alamance
5-3-0
0.53801
75.6
6.3
26
West Henderson
4-4-0
0.52610
75.6
4.5
27
Orange
4-4-0
0.51729
65.6
-3.9
28
South Granville
5-3-0
0.51551
69.6
-7.8
29
Southern Nash
4-5-0
0.51474
76.6
12.2
30
Saint Pauls
5-3-0
0.51451
85.5
1.9
31
Carson
4-4-0
0.51439
73.3
2.3
32
Montgomery Central
4-4-0
0.51217
74.6
7.5
33
Currituck County
3-5-0
0.49496
66.5
0.9
34
Erwin
3-5-0
0.49472
78.1
9.1
35
Parkwood
3-5-0
0.48201
81.4
17.0
36
Rockingham County
4-5-0
0.47811
70.7
-3.0
37
East Rowan
3-5-0
0.47316
66.3
4.9
38
North Buncombe
4-4-0
0.46892
67.3
-3.8
39
West Carteret
3-5-0
0.46375
64.8
9.8
40
South Brunswick
4-4-0
0.46139
64.6
-6.5
41
J. F. Webb
4-4-0
0.45722
61.0
-16.5
42
North Henderson
2-6-0
0.45512
67.5
8.3
43
Southern Wayne
3-6-0
0.44613
59.6
5.7
44
North Lincoln
2-6-0
0.43689
71.2
16.8
45
Charles B Aycock
2-6-0
0.42709
66.9
6.8
46
Huss
3-5-0
0.42483
78.1
6.4
47
Person
2-6-0
0.41439
66.2
9.1
48
Concord
1-7-0
0.40890
60.7
11.9
49
Forestview
1-7-0
0.39821
64.8
17.4
50
Richlands
1-7-0
0.38042
60.7
10.3
51
Dixon
2-6-0
0.36807
66.1
1.9
52
Atkins
1-7-0
0.36210
48.6
8.6
53
North Forsyth Magnet
1-7-0
0.34166
49.2
9.0
54
North Gaston
0-9-0
0.30948
37.2
15.7
55
Douglas Byrd
0-8-0
0.26741
36.4
3.9
56
Southern Guilford
0-8-0
0.25187
33.5
8.6
57
Cedar Ridge
0-6-0
0.22733
20.4
-16.5
4A — 57 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
West Iredell
8-0-0
0.71241
98.4
6.9
2
Tuscola
7-1-0
0.71139
98.0
7.1
3
Hibriten
8-0-0
0.69770
98.7
-3.5
4
East Duplin
7-1-0
0.68308
88.2
6.1
5
Burns
6-2-0
0.64702
92.9
7.6
6
Clinton
5-3-0
0.63404
76.1
1.2
7
Mount Pleasant
6-2-0
0.62925
82.7
8.3
8
SouthWest Edgecombe
6-2-0
0.62206
82.2
4.4
9
T Wingate Andrews
7-1-0
0.62067
94.4
0.1
10
Reidsville
6-3-0
0.60114
95.6
3.1
11
West Stokes
5-3-0
0.59111
86.4
5.7
12
Lake Norman Charter
5-3-0
0.59063
67.8
0.0
13
West Stanly
4-4-0
0.57941
66.7
8.9
14
Pisgah
4-4-0
0.57816
78.9
11.3
15
Wilkes Central
7-1-0
0.57509
79.9
-22.8
16
West Craven
6-2-0
0.57418
94.1
1.3
17
R-S Central
6-3-0
0.56911
77.3
-2.8
18
East Burke
4-4-0
0.56114
69.6
2.7
19
Stuart W Cramer
6-2-0
0.55634
93.8
-6.1
20
Southwestern Randolph
6-2-0
0.55377
70.5
-17.5
21
South Rowan
4-4-0
0.51507
70.6
-2.0
22
Maiden
4-4-0
0.51316
81.8
12.6
23
Morehead
5-3-0
0.50803
61.9
-10.1
24
Ledford
3-5-0
0.49069
67.2
9.7
25
Eastern Wayne
5-2-0
0.48929
79.6
-16.4
26
North Surry
4-4-0
0.48209
67.3
-6.4
27
Roanoke Rapids
3-5-0
0.47810
61.5
-6.5
28
Fairmont
3-5-0
0.47686
63.8
3.9
29
Newton-Conover
3-5-0
0.47681
75.0
13.4
30
Salisbury
2-6-0
0.47528
58.1
14.5
31
Randleman
3-5-0
0.47343
70.7
4.8
32
Anson
4-4-0
0.47221
72.5
-3.4
33
Bunker Hill
4-4-0
0.47000
74.3
6.4
34
Nash Central
2-6-0
0.46476
64.6
10.1
35
North Pitt
4-5-0
0.45945
70.6
3.6
36
East Gaston
4-4-0
0.45891
57.2
-5.4
37
Graham
0-1-0
0.45510
28.4
0.0
38
Bunn
4-4-0
0.45337
67.4
-8.9
39
Foard
2-6-0
0.45036
65.2
14.7
40
Forbush
4-4-0
0.44976
53.6
-12.7
41
Washington
2-6-0
0.43861
68.3
8.2
42
Bandys
3-5-0
0.43528
74.4
11.2
43
Southwest
3-5-0
0.41866
63.8
0.2
44
Lexington
2-6-0
0.41498
66.3
4.6
45
Jordan-Matthews
4-5-0
0.41138
37.4
-22.1
46
Central Davidson
3-6-0
0.40144
66.0
1.3
47
Cummings
1-7-0
0.37994
57.6
6.2
48
Lincoln Charter
1-7-0
0.35536
42.2
-3.8
49
East Henderson
1-7-0
0.33744
49.1
0.1
50
Brevard
1-7-0
0.33220
54.8
5.9
51
Ashe County
1-7-0
0.32407
42.7
-2.8
52
Carver
2-6-0
0.32399
38.2
-14.0
53
North Johnston
1-7-0
0.31390
54.1
0.9
54
Red Springs
2-6-0
0.31185
34.3
-3.1
55
Carrboro
1-7-0
0.30133
29.8
-16.5
56
First Flight
0-4-0
0.27292
43.7
-13.6
57
North Lenoir
0-9-0
0.26430
41.5
2.4
3A — 55 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
North Stanly
8-0-0
0.72202
90.9
-3.5
2
Whiteville
7-0-0
0.71353
79.9
-8.2
3
Northeastern
7-1-0
0.70255
91.2
3.6
4
Shelby
7-1-0
0.69700
101.8
6.2
5
Midway
7-1-0
0.69649
82.9
3.0
6
Hendersonville
8-0-0
0.66753
85.0
-8.7
7
James Kenan
6-1-0
0.64712
89.8
-5.6
8
Eastern Randolph
5-3-0
0.64083
88.4
9.1
9
Martin County
6-2-0
0.63072
82.6
-3.9
10
Walkertown
7-1-0
0.61924
82.0
-7.3
11
Chase
6-2-0
0.59560
68.8
-7.8
12
Mount Airy
5-3-0
0.59539
83.0
10.9
13
Thomasville
7-1-0
0.59532
83.1
-12.3
14
Hertford County
5-3-0
0.59514
82.1
2.7
15
Louisburg Magnet
7-1-0
0.56947
62.8
-19.7
16
Lincolnton
6-3-0
0.56913
92.3
-0.4
17
Mountain Heritage
6-2-0
0.55487
74.7
-6.9
18
Pasquotank County
4-3-0
0.55329
70.2
-1.7
19
Wallace-Rose Hill
4-3-0
0.55170
85.1
0.5
20
Union Academy
6-2-0
0.55000
63.7
-16.5
21
West Wilkes
5-3-0
0.54630
68.4
-6.0
22
Providence Grove
5-3-0
0.54524
71.4
-10.7
23
West Davidson
5-3-0
0.53358
69.8
-3.0
24
South Columbus
5-3-0
0.52953
68.9
-3.9
25
Northwood
4-4-0
0.51897
64.1
-4.5
26
Greene Central
5-3-0
0.51611
80.8
-4.6
27
Princeton
4-4-0
0.50730
81.6
-2.9
28
Farmville Central
4-4-0
0.50560
67.5
7.4
29
Wake Preparatory Academy
5-3-0
0.50325
64.3
-16.1
30
Owen
5-4-0
0.48938
59.3
-11.4
31
North Wilkes
4-4-0
0.46903
65.1
-12.5
32
Pine Lake Preparatory
4-4-0
0.46044
52.3
-11.4
33
East Surry
3-5-0
0.44989
68.4
0.1
34
East Rutherford
2-6-0
0.44234
65.1
3.8
35
Kinston
4-4-0
0.43829
75.3
-3.8
36
West Lincoln
3-5-0
0.41745
62.1
-3.8
37
East Davidson
3-5-0
0.39999
46.2
-13.3
38
Wheatmore
2-6-0
0.39568
53.5
-10.3
39
Pender
3-5-0
0.39112
69.7
-10.9
40
Ayden-Grifton
2-6-0
0.36248
60.1
1.6
41
North Moore
0-8-0
0.35873
32.0
-0.3
42
Polk County
2-6-0
0.35636
52.5
-10.3
43
South Lenoir
3-5-0
0.35190
40.2
-17.3
44
Heide Trask
2-6-0
0.33374
40.3
-13.0
45
McMichael
1-7-0
0.32791
23.4
-11.6
46
Bartlett Yancey
1-7-0
0.31913
36.1
-4.8
47
Trinity
1-7-0
0.31567
29.3
-12.0
48
Draughn
0-8-0
0.31466
31.9
2.6
49
Bessemer City
1-7-0
0.31329
35.9
-0.9
50
Madison
1-8-0
0.30055
37.8
-10.0
51
Patton
1-7-0
0.30053
37.3
-8.8
52
Goldsboro
0-8-0
0.27963
19.9
5.0
53
Beddingfield
0-8-0
0.25843
29.9
-5.0
54
Surry Central
0-8-0
0.22768
27.1
-16.8
55
West Bladen
0-7-0
0.20265
32.0
-16.5
2A — 45 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Corvian Community
7-1-0
0.68955
88.4
4.0
2
Tarboro
7-1-0
0.68377
97.3
2.5
3
Starmount
7-1-0
0.67180
85.5
-4.3
4
Holmes
6-1-0
0.64539
86.6
-6.5
5
Warren County
8-0-0
0.63638
88.3
-17.4
6
Murphy
6-2-0
0.62003
78.2
-0.4
7
North Rowan
6-2-0
0.60908
80.0
-5.6
8
Alleghany
5-3-0
0.59693
73.7
-1.2
9
Community School of Davidson
5-3-0
0.59688
83.1
2.3
10
Cherokee
5-3-0
0.57735
63.8
-1.4
11
Lakewood
5-3-0
0.57620
60.8
-11.0
12
Manteo
6-2-0
0.57602
59.1
-16.4
13
North Duplin Jr Sr
5-2-0
0.56341
56.6
-23.3
14
East Bladen
6-3-0
0.56133
62.6
-14.8
15
Christ the King
6-2-0
0.56000
78.2
-11.7
16
Southside
6-2-0
0.54985
47.9
-25.9
17
Cherryville
5-3-0
0.53873
67.8
-5.9
18
East Wilkes
4-4-0
0.52878
83.6
-0.1
19
Mountain Island Charter
6-2-0
0.52366
63.6
-22.2
20
Mitchell
5-3-0
0.52304
73.8
-4.9
21
Camden County
4-4-0
0.47755
52.5
-11.0
22
Bertie
2-6-0
0.47227
46.2
0.2
23
Gates County
3-5-0
0.47051
64.1
-7.5
24
West Columbus
3-5-0
0.45255
50.4
-12.4
25
South Stokes
5-3-0
0.44654
43.8
-26.4
26
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy
Projected champions: 8A Hough · 7A Weddington · 6A Junius H Rose · 5A Jay M Robinson · 4A West Iredell · 3A Shelby · 2A Tarboro · 1A Northside
The RPI bubble: the teams whose chance of making the playoffs is between 15% and 85%, with the last teams safely in and the first teams out on either edge, listed by that chance. In is 85% or better, Out below 15%.
8A bubble — 24 of 32 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
21
Broughton
4-4-0
100%
In
0.51044
21
0.5042
22
South Mecklenburg
3-5-0
93%
In
0.45926
22
0.4716
23
Wakefield
3-5-0
85%
In
0.45731
23
0.4666
On the bubble
24
Willow Spring
3-5-0
72%
Bubble
0.45302
24
0.4471
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Apex
3-6-0
18%
Bubble
0.41628
26
0.4159
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
26
East Mecklenburg
4-4-0
11%
Out
0.40335
28
0.4104
27
Corinth Holders
2-6-0
9%
Out
0.40753
27
0.4153
28
Enloe
3-5-0
8%
Out
0.41734
25
0.4115
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
7A bubble — 48 of 60 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43
New Hanover
2-6-0
100%
In
0.45541
40
0.4306
44
Independence
1-7-0
100%
In
0.44948
42
0.4302
45
East Wake
2-6-0
97%
In
0.41018
46
0.4261
On the bubble
46
Purnell Swett
3-5-0
80%
Bubble
0.42221
45
0.4238
47
South Iredell
1-7-0
78%
Bubble
0.37586
47
0.3958
48
Riverside
1-7-0
52%
Bubble
0.34869
53
0.3803
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
North Mecklenburg
2-6-0
48%
Bubble
0.37537
48
0.3866
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
50
Chapel Hill
2-6-0
12%
Out
0.37283
50
0.3646
51
Lumberton
1-7-0
11%
Out
0.34353
54
0.3597
52
Cox Mill
2-6-0
10%
Out
0.34124
56
0.3695
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
6A bubble — 48 of 58 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
42
West Johnston
3-5-0
99%
In
0.45321
38
0.4561
43
West Brunswick
2-7-0
94%
In
0.41859
43
0.4140
44
South View
3-5-0
92%
In
0.40446
46
0.4220
On the bubble
45
Central Cabarrus
2-6-0
82%
Bubble
0.43114
42
0.4353
46
Lee County
1-7-0
76%
Bubble
0.38878
50
0.4026
47
Saint Stephens
2-6-0
75%
Bubble
0.39314
48
0.4035
48
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
3-5-0
56%
Bubble
0.40033
47
0.3998
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Western Guilford
3-5-0
52%
Bubble
0.40871
45
0.4006
50
Vance County
1-7-0
23%
Bubble
0.39032
49
0.3898
51
E E Smith
1-7-0
16%
Bubble
0.34701
54
0.3721
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52
Harding University
2-6-0
14%
Out
0.37189
52
0.3699
53
Western Harnett
3-5-0
13%
Out
0.37188
53
0.3749
54
Southeast Guilford
1-7-0
8%
Out
0.37401
51
0.3780
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
5A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
Southern Wayne
3-6-0
97%
In
0.44613
43
0.4336
45
Forestview
1-7-0
92%
In
0.39821
49
0.4120
46
Huss
3-5-0
88%
In
0.42483
46
0.4146
On the bubble
47
North Lincoln
2-6-0
83%
Bubble
0.43689
44
0.4431
48
Charles B Aycock
2-6-0
64%
Bubble
0.42709
45
0.4207
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Concord
1-7-0
48%
Bubble
0.40890
48
0.3991
50
Dixon
2-6-0
19%
Bubble
0.36807
51
0.3900
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51
Richlands
1-7-0
10%
Out
0.38042
50
0.3730
52
Atkins
1-7-0
0%
Out
0.36210
52
0.3515
53
North Forsyth Magnet
1-7-0
0%
Out
0.34166
53
0.3507
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
4A bubble — 48 of 56 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
Jordan-Matthews
4-5-0
100%
In
0.41138
45
0.4138
45
Central Davidson
3-6-0
100%
In
0.40144
46
0.4021
46
Cummings
1-7-0
100%
In
0.37994
47
0.3927
On the bubble
47
Lincoln Charter
1-7-0
44%
Bubble
0.35536
48
0.3618
48
Carver
2-6-0
32%
Bubble
0.32399
52
0.3417
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
East Henderson
1-7-0
16%
Bubble
0.33744
49
0.3483
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
50
Ashe County
1-7-0
2%
Out
0.32407
51
0.3442
51
North Johnston
1-7-0
2%
Out
0.31390
53
0.3361
52
Red Springs
2-6-0
2%
Out
0.31185
54
0.3334
48 of 56 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
3A bubble — 48 of 55 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
45
Bessemer City
1-7-0
100%
In
0.31329
49
0.3294
46
Heide Trask
2-6-0
99%
In
0.33374
44
0.3357
47
Bartlett Yancey
1-7-0
91%
In
0.31913
46
0.3431
On the bubble
48
Draughn
0-8-0
70%
Bubble
0.31466
48
0.3219
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
McMichael
1-7-0
25%
Bubble
0.32791
45
0.3208
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
50
Trinity
1-7-0
13%
Out
0.31567
47
0.3137
51
Madison
1-8-0
2%
Out
0.30055
50
0.3073
52
Goldsboro
0-8-0
0%
Out
0.27963
52
0.3017
48 of 55 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
2A bubble — 48 of 46 make the field
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
1A bubble — 48 of 26 make the field
All 26 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Winningest Coaches
North Carolina head-coaching records: every game in our archive for the seasons a coach is credited with, from HSFHA, the NCHSAA, NCHSFootball and MaxPreps, with a published stint filling a season no source names. Records outside North Carolina are HSFHA's. Still being completed: for 1980-1999 many seasons have no coach on record anywhere yet.
All-time, by NC wins
Coach
Schools
NC record
Pct
Seasons
State titles
Other states
Career
1
Jack Holley
Tabor City 1964-69, 1972-81; Hallsboro 1970-71; Wallace-Rose Hill 1982-92, 1997-2008; South Columbus 1993-96; Harrells Christian Academy 2009-10
417-126-8
.764
47
417-126-8
2
David Gentry
Edneyville 1974-83; Murphy 1984-2020
406-173-2
.701
47
9
406-173-2
3
Burton Cates
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
391-132
.748
42
1
391-132
2
Jeff Craddock
Tarboro 2004-26
263-48
.846
23
9
263-48
3
Steve Davis
Dudley 2004-26
252-60
.808
23
5
252-60
4
Richard Bailey
Jack Britt 2000-02, 2004, 2006-10; Scotland 2012-26
239-76
.759
24
239-76
5
Antonio Moore
Northeastern 2005-26
237-58
.803
22
237-58
6
Donnie Kiefer
Saint Pauls 1986-87; Southwest Guilford 1988-90; Gates County 1991-93; Andrews 1994-95; Hibriten 1996-98; Roanoke 1999-2003; East Carteret 2004-06; Tuscola 2007-11; Central Cabarrus 2012-16, 2022, 2025-26
120 simulated seasons. Results through week 9 are taken as they stand; every week after that is played out in full, with ratings refit after each one. Outcomes are sampled rather than awarded to the favorite, so upsets happen at the rate the model believes they happen. The mean rating comes back close to where the season has already put each team — a simulation learns nothing new about games nobody has played — so the 10th–90th band, not the mean, is the forecast, and it widens the further out the projection runs.