NC high school football · 2026 · week 10 · as of October 18
Title races and the RPI bubble
Which remaining games decide a conference title, and which teams are fighting for the last playoff berths. Built from the games in our database as of Sunday, October 18.
Talking points
- Cannon at Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (Fri 10/23) is the biggest decider on the board this week (NCISAA Western). Rabun Gap-Nacoochee is 52% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss; Cannon is 48% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss. We favor Rabun Gap-Nacoochee, 52%.
- 24 conference title deciders in Week 10 (Fri 10/23). The unbeaten-versus-unbeaten ones: Southern School of Energy at Hillside (Tobacco Road, 3-0 vs 3-0 in the league); Myers Park at Hough (Greater Charlotte, 3-0 vs 3-0 in the league); West Craven at SouthWest Edgecombe (Three Rivers, 4-0 vs 4-0 in the league); Southside at Northside (Pinetown) (Coastal Plains, 3-0 vs 3-0 in the league); Westover at Seventy-First (Eastern Sandhills, 3-0 vs 3-0 in the league). In each, the winner is at or near a sure share and the loser's title chance collapses.
- Hough, No. 1 in our power ratings, has a decider on Fri 10/23 (Myers Park at Hough, Greater Charlotte): 97% to share the title now, 100% with a win over Myers Park and 7% with a loss.
- Week 11 (Thu 10/29 to Fri 10/30) has 27 deciders. Biggest: Chambers at Mallard Creek (Meck Power Six, power 119 and 114); Clayton at Cleveland (Greater Neuse River, power 116 and 119); Shelby at Burns (Southern Piedmont, power 102 and 93); Kings Mountain at Crest (Big South, power 107 and 105).
- Clinched outright: Hibriten (Western Piedmont); clinched at least a share: Weddington (Southern Carolina); 20 more conferences have a team above 99% to at least share it (not proven, so not called clinched). This week a win clinches at least a share for Asheville School (outright) (Asheville School at SouthLake Christian Academy, Fri 10/23); Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (outright) (Cannon at Rabun Gap-Nacoochee, Fri 10/23); Cannon (Cannon at Rabun Gap-Nacoochee, Fri 10/23); Southern School of Energy (Southern School of Energy at Hillside, Fri 10/23); Hough (Myers Park at Hough, Fri 10/23).
- Final week's de facto title games (Week 11): Shelby at Burns (Southern Piedmont, Fri 10/30); Chambers at Mallard Creek (Meck Power Six, Fri 10/30); Scotland at Cape Fear (Tri County, Fri 10/30); Lake Norman at Mooresville (North Piedmont, Fri 10/30); Wake Forest at Heritage (Northern Six, Fri 10/30); Jay M Robinson at Northwest Cabarrus (South Piedmont, Fri 10/30). The winner is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive. The decider list for that week has 27 games in all.
- No bubble in 1A (26 teams for 48 spots), 2A (46 teams for 48 spots): everyone is in on these numbers, so what is left to play for is seeding. The bubble is 8A, 7A, 6A, 5A, 4A, 3A.
- 8A: 24 of 32 teams get in. 21 are above 99% and 3 below 1%; the 4 closest calls: Wakefield 88%, Willow Spring 72%, Apex 20%, East Mecklenburg 10%.
- 6A: 48 of 58 teams get in. 41 are above 99% and 4 below 1%; the 10 closest calls: South View 90%, Central Cabarrus 84%, Lee County 75%, Saint Stephens 73%, Phillip O. Berry 56%, Western Guilford 49%.
- Best bubble-versus-bubble game: McMichael at Bartlett Yancey in 3A (Fri 10/23). Bartlett Yancey goes from 43% to 98% to make the field with a win; McMichael goes from 14% to >99%.
- Can't get in by winning out (under 5% even with a sweep, in our simulations): West Mecklenburg (7A), Northwest Guilford (8A), Garinger (8A); Need help even if they win out: Apex (8A), E E Smith (6A), North Johnston (4A), Carrboro (4A), North Forsyth Magnet (5A).
- Already safe (above 99% to make the field): 8A 21 of 32, 7A 42 of 60, 6A 41 of 58, 5A 42 of 57, 4A 45 of 57, 3A 44 of 56.
How to read this
Share of the title means finishing level with or ahead of everyone else in the conference on conference winning percentage (a tie counts as half a win). We do not call tiebreakers, so we never say who wins one. “Alive” means a path to a share exists. “Clinched” and “eliminated” appear only where we counted every outcome of every remaining conference game and it is proven. Percentages are whole numbers, and “<1%” and “>99%” mean not proven impossible or certain.
Win chances for tackle football come from season projection run 28 (120 simulated seasons, 3995 results, through week 9; through the week just played). The bubble tables give, for each team, the chance to make the playoff field and the chance if it wins out or loses a given number of its remaining games. Team strength is our own power ratings first.
Conference title deciders
51 deciders across 42 conferences, grouped by week. A game is a decider when both teams are alive with at least a 5% chance at a share of the title, and either side's chance moves 25 points or more between a win and a loss (or the two sides' moves add to 30 or more), or a win clinches a share, or a loss eliminates a team. Within a week, games are in date order and then by how much they move the race.
Week 10Fri 10/23 · 24 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | Asheville School 2-0 / 6-2 at SouthLake Christian Academy 2-1 / 5-3 Our power ratings: Asheville School 97 (No. 63); SouthLake Christian Academy 68 (No. 245) | NCISAA Big 6 | Asheville School 95% | Asheville School 95% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it SouthLake Christian Academy 5% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Cannon 1-0 / 6-2 at Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 1-0 / 4-4 | NCISAA Western | Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 52% | Cannon 48% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 52% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Southern School of Energy 3-0 / 5-2 at Hillside 3-0 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Southern School of Energy 103 (No. 41); Hillside 81 (No. 160) | Tobacco Road | Southern School of Energy 95% | Southern School of Energy 95% now → 100% with a win, 6% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Hillside 8% now → 100% with a win, 3% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Myers Park 3-0 / 6-2 at Hough 3-0 / 8-0 Our power ratings: Myers Park 106 (No. 33); Hough 131 (No. 1) | Greater Charlotte | Hough 97% | Myers Park 6% now → 100% with a win, 3% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Hough 97% now → 100% with a win, 7% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | West Craven 4-0 / 6-2 at SouthWest Edgecombe 4-0 / 6-2 Our power ratings: West Craven 94 (No. 75); SouthWest Edgecombe 82 (No. 149) | Three Rivers | West Craven 75% | West Craven 76% now → 100% with a win, 3% with a lossa win clinches at least a share SouthWest Edgecombe 34% now → 100% with a win, 12% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Southside 3-0 / 6-2 at Northside (Pinetown) 3-0 / 8-0 Our power ratings: Southside 48 (No. 351); Northside (Pinetown) 79 (No. 176) | Coastal Plains | Northside (Pinetown) 97% | Southside 5% now → 100% with a win, 2% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Northside (Pinetown) 98% now → 100% with a win, 19% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Westover 3-0 / 5-3 at Seventy-First 3-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Westover 86 (No. 116); Seventy-First 103 (No. 42) | Eastern Sandhills | Seventy-First 87% | Westover 20% now → 100% with a win, 8% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Seventy-First 90% now → 100% with a win, 25% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Hendersonville 4-0 / 8-0 at Mountain Heritage 4-0 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Hendersonville 85 (No. 128); Mountain Heritage 75 (No. 202) | Western Highlands | Hendersonville 82% | Hendersonville 87% now → 100% with a win, 32% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Mountain Heritage 20% now → 100% with a win, 2% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Reagan 3-0 / 7-1 at West Forsyth 3-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Reagan 116 (No. 11); West Forsyth 117 (No. 10) | Central Piedmont | West Forsyth 56% | Reagan 45% now → 100% with a win, 2% with a lossa win clinches at least a share West Forsyth 72% now → 100% with a win, 36% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Wilson Preparatory Academy 3-0 / 4-4 at Sallie B Howard 3-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Wilson Preparatory Academy 76 (No. 191); Sallie B Howard 46 (No. 358) | Eastern Carolina | Wilson Preparatory Academy 94% | Wilson Preparatory Academy 96% now → 100% with a win, 36% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Sallie B Howard 8% now → 100% with a win, 2% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Pinecrest 3-0 / 5-3 at Hoke County 3-0 / 5-3 Our power ratings: Pinecrest 102 (No. 45); Hoke County 89 (No. 103) | Mid South | Pinecrest 70% | Pinecrest 75% now → 100% with a win, 16% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Hoke County 52% now → 100% with a win, 32% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Garner 3-1 / 6-2 at Clayton 4-0 / 8-0 Our power ratings: Garner 114 (No. 16); Clayton 116 (No. 12) | Greater Neuse River | Clayton 52% | Garner 46% now → 96% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Clayton 74% now → 100% with a win, 45% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Wilkes Central 4-1 / 7-1 at Starmount 4-1 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Wilkes Central 80 (No. 170); Starmount 86 (No. 122) | Mountain Valley | Starmount 59% | Wilkes Central 31% now → 74% with a win, 1% with a loss Starmount 68% now → 98% with a win, 24% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Wake Preparatory Academy 2-1 / 5-3 at Nash Central 2-1 / 2-6 Our power ratings: Wake Preparatory Academy 64 (No. 281); Nash Central 65 (No. 279) | Quad County | Nash Central 54% | Wake Preparatory Academy 23% now → 50% with a win, <1% with a loss Nash Central 41% now → 75% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Bunn 2-1 / 4-4 at Louisburg Magnet 3-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Bunn 67 (No. 253); Louisburg Magnet 63 (No. 291) | Quad County | Bunn 54% | Bunn 30% now → 56% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Louisburg Magnet 73% now → 100% with a win, 50% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Grimsley 4-0 / 8-0 at Dudley 4-1 / 6-3 Our power ratings: Grimsley 122 (No. 5); Dudley 97 (No. 65) | Metro | Grimsley 94% | Grimsley >99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Dudley 6% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Franklin 5-0 / 8-0 at Smoky Mountain 4-1 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Franklin 98 (No. 56); Smoky Mountain 93 (No. 83) | Mountain Eight | Franklin 62% | Franklin 98% now → 100% with a win, 93% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Smoky Mountain 35% now → 94% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Freedom 3-0 / 7-1 at Alexander Central 2-1 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Freedom 85 (No. 130); Alexander Central 86 (No. 119) | Northwestern | Alexander Central 57% | Freedom 98% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Alexander Central 55% now → 97% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Franklinton 2-1 / 7-1 at Wake Forest 3-0 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Franklinton 92 (No. 87); Wake Forest 106 (No. 31) | Northern Six | Wake Forest 71% | Franklinton 27% now → 91% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Wake Forest 95% now → 95% with a win, 95% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | New Bern 2-1 / 6-2 at Junius H Rose 3-0 / 8-0 Our power ratings: New Bern 99 (No. 51); Junius H Rose 114 (No. 15) | Big Carolina | Junius H Rose 89% | New Bern 9% now → 81% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Junius H Rose >99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Lake Norman 3-0 / 8-0 at Davie County 2-1 / 5-3 Our power ratings: Lake Norman 119 (No. 6); Davie County 97 (No. 60) | North Piedmont | Lake Norman 89% | Lake Norman 81% now → 81% with a win, 78% with a loss Davie County 8% now → 77% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Bear Grass Charter 2-1 / 2-6 at Hobgood Charter 3-0 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Bear Grass Charter 30 (No. 412); Hobgood Charter 41 (No. 381) | Atlantic | Hobgood Charter 80% | Bear Grass Charter 11% now → 57% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Hobgood Charter >99% now → 100% with a win, 98% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/23 | Martin County 2-1 / 7-2 at Northeastern 3-0 / 8-1 Our power ratings: Martin County 83 (No. 147); Northeastern 91 (No. 93) | Northeastern Coastal | Northeastern 80% | Martin County 8% now → 43% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Northeastern 98% now → 100% with a win, 91% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Asheboro 2-1 / 7-1 at Northeast Guilford 2-1 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Asheboro 91 (No. 96); Northeast Guilford 96 (No. 66) | TAAC Six | Northeast Guilford 66% | Asheboro 9% now → 25% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Northeast Guilford 15% now → 23% with a win, <1% with a loss |
Week 11Thu 10/29 to Fri 10/30 · 27 deciders, 17 marked as de facto title games
A de facto title game in the last week is one where whoever wins is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive.
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/29 | Christ School 0-1 / 5-2 at Cannon 1-0 / 6-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Christ School 94 (No. 81); Cannon 100 (No. 48) | NCISAA Western | Cannon 64% | Christ School 14% now → 40% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Cannon 48% now → 48% with a win, 48% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | North Stanly 4-0 / 7-0 at Union Academy 5-1 / 7-2 Our power ratings: North Stanly 91 (No. 95); Union Academy 64 (No. 287) | Yadkin Valley | North Stanly 94% | North Stanly 92% now → 97% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Union Academy 6% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Shelby 6-0 / 7-1 at Burns 6-0 / 6-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Shelby 102 (No. 46); Burns 93 (No. 84) | Southern Piedmont | Shelby 74% | Shelby 75% now → 100% with a win, 3% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Burns 28% now → 100% with a win, 3% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Chambers 3-0 / 8-0 at Mallard Creek 3-0 / 6-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Chambers 119 (No. 8); Mallard Creek 114 (No. 14) | Meck Power Six | Chambers 62% | Chambers 66% now → 100% with a win, 10% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Mallard Creek 42% now → 100% with a win, 7% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Scotland 3-0 / 7-1 at Cape Fear 3-0 / 7-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Scotland 108 (No. 26); Cape Fear 94 (No. 73) | Tri County | Scotland 86% | Scotland 88% now → 100% with a win, 15% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Cape Fear 16% now → 100% with a win, 3% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Lake Norman 3-0 / 8-0 at Mooresville 3-0 / 4-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Lake Norman 119 (No. 6); Mooresville 103 (No. 40) | North Piedmont | Lake Norman 78% | Lake Norman 81% now → 100% with a win, 11% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Mooresville 29% now → 100% with a win, 9% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Wake Forest 3-0 / 6-2 at Heritage 3-0 / 4-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Wake Forest 106 (No. 31); Heritage 83 (No. 143) | Northern Six | Wake Forest 95% | Wake Forest 95% now → 100% with a win, 5% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Heritage 31% now → 100% with a win, 27% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Clayton 4-0 / 8-0 at Cleveland 3-1 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Clayton 116 (No. 12); Cleveland 119 (No. 7) | Greater Neuse River | Cleveland 55% | Clayton 74% now → 100% with a win, 53% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Cleveland 53% now → 97% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Jay M Robinson 5-0 / 8-0 at Northwest Cabarrus 5-0 / 7-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Jay M Robinson 110 (No. 22); Northwest Cabarrus 85 (No. 126) | South Piedmont | Jay M Robinson 95% | Jay M Robinson 98% now → 100% with a win, 63% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Northwest Cabarrus 6% now → 100% with a win, 1% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Kings Mountain 3-1 / 6-2 at Crest 4-0 / 7-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Kings Mountain 107 (No. 29); Crest 105 (No. 36) | Big South | Kings Mountain 62% | Kings Mountain 59% now → 96% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Crest 78% now → 100% with a win, 65% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | James Kenan 3-0 / 6-1 at Wallace-Rose Hill 2-1 / 4-3 Our power ratings: James Kenan 90 (No. 100); Wallace-Rose Hill 85 (No. 127) | Swine Valley | James Kenan 64% | James Kenan 89% now → 100% with a win, 68% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Wallace-Rose Hill 34% now → 94% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Trinity Christian 1-1 / 5-4 at Harrells Christian Academy 1-0 / 4-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Trinity Christian 81 (No. 159); Harrells Christian Academy 76 (No. 188) | NCISAA Big East | Trinity Christian 52% | Trinity Christian 52% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Harrells Christian Academy 93% now → 100% with a win, 87% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Providence 3-0 / 4-4 at Ardrey Kell 2-1 / 5-3 Our power ratings: Providence 93 (No. 85); Ardrey Kell 95 (No. 70) | Southwestern | Ardrey Kell 53% | Providence 91% now → 100% with a win, 83% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Ardrey Kell 47% now → 88% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | South Columbus 3-1 / 6-3 at Whiteville 3-0 / 8-0DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: South Columbus 69 (No. 239); Whiteville 80 (No. 171) | Southeastern | Whiteville 74% | South Columbus 26% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Whiteville 99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Havelock 4-1 / 5-4 at Northside (Jacksonville) 4-0 / 8-0DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Havelock 93 (No. 82); Northside (Jacksonville) 107 (No. 28) | Coastal | Northside (Jacksonville) 84% | Havelock 16% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Northside (Jacksonville) >99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Louisburg Magnet 3-0 / 7-1 at Wake Preparatory Academy 2-1 / 5-3 Our power ratings: Louisburg Magnet 63 (No. 291); Wake Preparatory Academy 64 (No. 281) | Quad County | Wake Preparatory Academy 50% | Louisburg Magnet 73% now → 100% with a win, 46% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Wake Preparatory Academy 23% now → 46% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Pasquotank County 2-1 / 5-3 at Northeastern 3-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Pasquotank County 70 (No. 233); Northeastern 91 (No. 93) | Northeastern Coastal | Northeastern 91% | Pasquotank County 7% now → 72% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Northeastern 98% now → 100% with a win, 80% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Monroe 3-0 / 6-2 at Forest Hills 2-1 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Monroe 105 (No. 38); Forest Hills 86 (No. 120) | Rocky River | Monroe 92% | Monroe >99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Forest Hills 7% now → 88% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Providence Grove 2-1 / 5-3 at Thomasville 3-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Providence Grove 71 (No. 220); Thomasville 83 (No. 140) | Central Carolina | Thomasville 79% | Providence Grove 18% now → 87% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Thomasville 99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Ashley 3-1 / 5-3 at Hoggard 4-0 / 7-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Ashley 84 (No. 136); Hoggard 114 (No. 13) | Carolina Coast | Hoggard 97% | Ashley 3% now → 86% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Hoggard >99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Enka 2-1 / 7-1 at Asheville 3-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Enka 85 (No. 131); Asheville 97 (No. 64) | Mountain | Asheville 75% | Enka 20% now → 78% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Asheville 99% now → 100% with a win, 95% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Richmond 2-1 / 3-5 at Pinecrest 3-0 / 5-3 Our power ratings: Richmond 102 (No. 44); Pinecrest 102 (No. 45) | Mid South | Pinecrest 56% | Richmond 31% now → 71% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Pinecrest 75% now → 78% with a win, 70% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Panther Creek 3-1 / 5-3 at Apex Friendship 4-0 / 8-0DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Panther Creek 86 (No. 118); Apex Friendship 99 (No. 50) | Quad City Seven | Apex Friendship 82% | Panther Creek 14% now → 74% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Apex Friendship 99% now → 100% with a win, 96% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Ravenscroft 0-1 / 2-6 at North Raleigh Christian Academy 1-1 / 5-3DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Ravenscroft 60 (No. 305); North Raleigh Christian Academy 76 (No. 192) | NCISAA Big East | North Raleigh Christian Academy 85% | Ravenscroft 2% now → 13% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it North Raleigh Christian Academy 49% now → 58% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Northern Nash 4-0 / 6-2 at Rocky Mount 3-1 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Northern Nash 109 (No. 23); Rocky Mount 92 (No. 86) | Big East | Northern Nash 83% | Northern Nash 99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Rocky Mount 11% now → 67% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 4-1 / 5-4 at South Stokes 3-1 / 5-3DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 51 (No. 337); South Stokes 44 (No. 366) | Greater Triad | Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 75% | Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 35% now → 47% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it South Stokes 4% now → 18% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Hertford County 3-1 / 6-3 at Martin County 2-1 / 7-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Hertford County 82 (No. 150); Martin County 83 (No. 147) | Northeastern Coastal | Hertford County 57% | Hertford County 16% now → 27% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Martin County 8% now → 20% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | East Forsyth 2-1 / 5-3 at Reagan 3-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: East Forsyth 110 (No. 20); Reagan 116 (No. 11) | Central Piedmont | Reagan 62% | East Forsyth 17% now → 44% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Reagan 45% now → 46% with a win, 44% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | East Wilkes 3-2 / 4-4 at Wilkes Central 4-1 / 7-1 Our power ratings: East Wilkes 84 (No. 135); Wilkes Central 80 (No. 170) | Mountain Valley | East Wilkes 51% | East Wilkes 10% now → 20% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Wilkes Central 31% now → 42% with a win, 20% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Oak Grove 2-1 / 6-2 at North Davidson 2-1 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Oak Grove 106 (No. 34); North Davidson 92 (No. 90) | Piedmont Triad | Oak Grove 76% | Oak Grove 15% now → 20% with a win, <1% with a loss North Davidson 5% now → 21% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
The RPI bubble
NCHSAA fills each field by final RPI alone, with no automatic bids. We play out every remaining regular-season game 20,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, turn each finish into RPI with the association's formula, and count how often a team is in the field (24 in 8A, 48 in 7A, 48 in 6A, 48 in 5A, 48 in 4A, 48 in 3A, 48 in 2A, 48 in 1A). Teams listed are those with a real chance either way, plus the nearest teams on each side.
8A24 of 32 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 24th team's RPI is 0.4530 (next team 0.4173). In our simulation 21 teams are above 99% to make it, 3 are below 1%, and 8 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Friendship | 8-0 | 99 (No. 50) | 0.6750 (5) | 2 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Broughton | 4-4 | 86 (No. 117) | 0.5104 (21) | 2 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| South Mecklenburg | 3-5 | 80 (No. 169) | 0.4593 (22) | 2 | 95% | >99% | >99% | 25% | Safe even with a slip |
| Wakefield | 3-5 | 79 (No. 174) | 0.4573 (23) | 2 | 88% | >99% | >99% | 43% | Safe even with a slip |
| Willow Spring | 3-5 | 73 (No. 213) | 0.4530 (24) | 2 | 72% | >99% | >99% | 68% | Win and in |
| Apex | 3-6 | 80 (No. 165) | 0.4163 (26) | 1 | 20% | 73% | <1% | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| East Mecklenburg | 4-4 | 74 (No. 210) | 0.4033 (28) | 2 | 10% | >99% | 66% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Corinth Holders | 2-6 | 82 (No. 152) | 0.4075 (27) | 2 | 8% | 97% | 10% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Enloe | 3-5 | 81 (No. 158) | 0.4173 (25) | 2 | 5% | 96% | 8% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Athens Drive | 2-6 | 70 (No. 234) | 0.3922 (29) | 2 | 3% | 95% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Northwest Guilford | 0-8 | 71 (No. 222) | 0.3531 (31) | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
| Garinger | 2-6 | 51 (No. 338) | 0.3790 (30) | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 17, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
7A48 of 60 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3754 (next team 0.3739). In our simulation 42 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 14 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballantyne Ridge | 3-5 | 75 (No. 205) | 0.4559 (39) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 82% | Safe even with a slip |
| Independence | 1-7 | 85 (No. 125) | 0.4495 (42) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 98% | Safe even with a slip |
| East Wake | 2-6 | 71 (No. 229) | 0.4102 (46) | 2 | 96% | >99% | 94% | <1% | Win and in |
| Purnell Swett | 3-5 | 70 (No. 231) | 0.4222 (45) | 2 | 83% | >99% | >99% | 2% | Safe even with a slip |
| South Iredell | 1-7 | 73 (No. 217) | 0.3759 (47) | 2 | 72% | >99% | 73% | <1% | Win and in |
| Riverside | 1-7 | 56 (No. 320) | 0.3487 (53) | 2 | 52% | 82% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in |
| North Mecklenburg | 2-6 | 85 (No. 129) | 0.3754 (48) | 2 | 44% | >99% | 51% | <1% | Win and in |
| Cox Mill | 2-6 | 68 (No. 246) | 0.3412 (56) | 2 | 13% | >99% | 22% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Chapel Hill | 2-6 | 46 (No. 356) | 0.3728 (50) | 2 | 13% | >99% | 24% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Lumberton | 1-7 | 63 (No. 290) | 0.3435 (54) | 2 | 11% | >99% | 37% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Cary | 3-5 | 67 (No. 260) | 0.3739 (49) | 2 | 8% | >99% | >99% | 2% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 1 of 2) |
| Cuthbertson | 1-7 | 67 (No. 259) | 0.3511 (52) | 2 | 5% | >99% | 84% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Southwest Guilford | 1-7 | 60 (No. 304) | 0.3704 (51) | 2 | 4% | >99% | 1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| McDowell | 1-7 | 53 (No. 329) | 0.3418 (55) | 2 | 1% | >99% | 5% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| West Mecklenburg | 0-8 | 71 (No. 223) | 0.3021 (58) | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 17, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
6A48 of 58 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3931 (next team 0.3903). In our simulation 41 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 13 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piedmont | 3-5 | 76 (No. 193) | 0.4141 (44) | 2 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| West Johnston | 3-5 | 69 (No. 241) | 0.4532 (38) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 93% | Safe even with a slip |
| West Brunswick | 2-7 | 73 (No. 214) | 0.4186 (43) | 1 | 96% | >99% | 95% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| South View | 3-5 | 78 (No. 181) | 0.4045 (46) | 2 | 90% | >99% | >99% | 82% | Safe even with a slip |
| Central Cabarrus | 2-6 | 75 (No. 204) | 0.4311 (42) | 2 | 84% | >99% | >99% | 7% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lee County | 1-7 | 66 (No. 270) | 0.3888 (50) | 2 | 75% | >99% | 77% | <1% | Win and in |
| Saint Stephens | 2-6 | 72 (No. 219) | 0.3931 (48) | 2 | 73% | >99% | 88% | <1% | Win and in |
| Phillip O. Berry | 3-5 | 65 (No. 272) | 0.4003 (47) | 2 | 56% | >99% | >99% | 1% | Win and in |
| Western Guilford | 3-5 | 59 (No. 308) | 0.4087 (45) | 2 | 49% | >99% | >99% | 43% | Win and in |
| Vance County | 1-7 | 58 (No. 313) | 0.3903 (49) | 2 | 24% | >99% | >99% | 3% | Win and in |
| Harding University | 2-6 | 68 (No. 249) | 0.3719 (52) | 2 | 16% | >99% | 54% | <1% | Win and in |
| Western Harnett | 3-5 | 52 (No. 332) | 0.3719 (53) | 2 | 16% | >99% | 98% | <1% | Win and in |
| E E Smith | 1-7 | 74 (No. 208) | 0.3470 (54) | 2 | 14% | 54% | <1% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Southeast Guilford | 1-7 | 66 (No. 266) | 0.3740 (51) | 2 | 8% | >99% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Ben L. Smith | 1-7 | 54 (No. 325) | 0.2797 (57) | 2 | <1% | 65% | <1% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| North Iredell | 0-8 | 42 (No. 376) | 0.3407 (55) | 2 | <1% | 21% | <1% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 17, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
5A48 of 57 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.4089 (next team 0.3982). In our simulation 42 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 11 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Rowan | 3-5 | 66 (No. 264) | 0.4732 (37) | 2 | >99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Person | 2-6 | 66 (No. 265) | 0.4144 (47) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Southern Wayne | 3-6 | 60 (No. 303) | 0.4461 (43) | 1 | 97% | >99% | 95% | — | Win and in |
| Forestview | 1-7 | 65 (No. 278) | 0.3982 (49) | 2 | 92% | >99% | 98% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Huss | 3-5 | 78 (No. 180) | 0.4248 (46) | 2 | 86% | >99% | >99% | 84% | Safe even with a slip |
| North Lincoln | 2-6 | 71 (No. 221) | 0.4369 (44) | 2 | 85% | >99% | >99% | 27% | Safe even with a slip |
| Charles B Aycock | 2-6 | 67 (No. 258) | 0.4271 (45) | 2 | 66% | >99% | >99% | 22% | Win and in |
| Concord | 1-7 | 61 (No. 299) | 0.4089 (48) | 2 | 43% | >99% | 56% | <1% | Win and in |
| Dixon | 2-6 | 66 (No. 267) | 0.3681 (51) | 2 | 21% | >99% | 27% | <1% | Win and in |
| Richlands | 1-7 | 61 (No. 300) | 0.3804 (50) | 2 | 8% | >99% | 22% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Atkins | 1-7 | 49 (No. 347) | 0.3621 (52) | 2 | 1% | 83% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 1-7 | 49 (No. 344) | 0.3417 (53) | 2 | 1% | 72% | <1% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 17, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
4A48 of 57 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3554 (next team 0.3374). In our simulation 45 teams are above 99% to make it, 2 are below 1%, and 10 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cummings | 1-7 | 58 (No. 315) | 0.3799 (47) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lexington | 2-6 | 66 (No. 263) | 0.4150 (44) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 92% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lincoln Charter | 1-7 | 42 (No. 374) | 0.3554 (48) | 2 | 44% | >99% | 96% | 18% | Win and in |
| Carver | 2-6 | 38 (No. 387) | 0.3240 (52) | 2 | 26% | >99% | 50% | <1% | Win and in |
| East Henderson | 1-7 | 49 (No. 345) | 0.3374 (49) | 2 | 14% | >99% | 87% | 10% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Ashe County | 1-7 | 43 (No. 373) | 0.3241 (51) | 2 | 6% | >99% | 72% | 2% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Brevard | 1-7 | 55 (No. 322) | 0.3322 (50) | 2 | 4% | >99% | 64% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| North Johnston | 1-7 | 54 (No. 324) | 0.3139 (53) | 2 | 4% | 74% | 3% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Red Springs | 2-6 | 34 (No. 402) | 0.3119 (54) | 2 | 3% | >99% | 52% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Carrboro | 1-7 | 30 (No. 414) | 0.3013 (55) | 2 | 1% | 57% | <1% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| First Flight † | 0-9 | 44 (No. 367) | 0.2729 (56) | 0 | <1% | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 17, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
3A48 of 56 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3147 (next team 0.3133). In our simulation 44 teams are above 99% to make it, 3 are below 1%, and 9 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heide Trask | 2-6 | 40 (No. 382) | 0.3337 (44) | 2 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Patton | 1-7 | 37 (No. 391) | 0.3005 (51) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Bessemer City | 1-7 | 36 (No. 398) | 0.3133 (49) | 2 | 97% | >99% | >99% | 97% | Safe even with a slip |
| Bartlett Yancey | 1-7 | 36 (No. 396) | 0.3191 (46) | 2 | 90% | >99% | 95% | <1% | Win and in |
| Draughn | 0-8 | 32 (No. 407) | 0.3147 (48) | 2 | 65% | >99% | >99% | 63% | Win and in |
| McMichael | 1-7 | 23 (No. 424) | 0.3279 (45) | 2 | 28% | >99% | >99% | 12% | Win and in |
| Trinity | 1-7 | 29 (No. 417) | 0.3157 (47) | 2 | 14% | >99% | >99% | 8% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 1 of 2) |
| Madison | 1-8 | 38 (No. 389) | 0.3005 (50) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Goldsboro | 0-8 | 20 (No. 431) | 0.2796 (52) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Beddingfield | 0-8 | 30 (No. 413) | 0.2584 (53) | 2 | 1% | >99% | 6% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Surry Central | 0-8 | 27 (No. 421) | 0.2277 (54) | 2 | <1% | >99% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 17, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
2A46 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
2A has 46 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
1A26 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
1A has 26 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
NCISAA
NCISAA seeds eight teams per classification by MaxPreps rating. The numbers below are the latest MaxPreps release; our own power ratings and win chances are alongside.
NCISAA I10 teams, 8 berths
The cut is between Metrolina Christian Academy (8th, 37.2) and North Raleigh Christian Academy (9th, 36.3), a gap of 0.9 points. They played on Fri 9/25: Metrolina Christian Academy won 17-7.
| MaxPreps order | Team | Record | Our power | MaxPreps rating | Games left (our win chance) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Charlotte Latin | 3-5 | 86 (No. 114) | 49.9 | Fri 10/23 vs Charlotte Country Day (48%); Fri 10/30 at Charlotte Christian (52%) |
| 7 | Charlotte Christian | 3-4 | 86 (No. 121) | 49.1 | Fri 10/23 at Providence Day (3%); Fri 10/30 vs Charlotte Latin (48%) |
| 8 (last in) | Metrolina Christian Academy | 3-5 | 75 (No. 199) | 37.2 | Fri 10/23 vs Christ School (16%); Fri 10/30 vs Hickory Grove Christian (82%) |
| 9 | North Raleigh Christian Academy | 5-3 | 76 (No. 192) | 36.3 | Fri 10/23 vs Wayne Christian (72%); Fri 10/30 vs Ravenscroft (85%) |
| 10 | Ravenscroft | 2-6 | 60 (No. 305) | 23.7 | Fri 10/23 vs Harrells Christian Academy (13%); Fri 10/30 at North Raleigh Christian Academy (15%) |
Ordered by MaxPreps rating, the measure NCISAA seeds on; our power ratings are reference only. Shown: the teams around the cut.
NCISAA II7 teams, 8 berths
7 NCISAA teams for 8 berths: every team is in on the numbers.
The simulation samples each game from a fixed win chance, so it does not re-rate a team after a simulated upset, and it does not model opt-outs, forfeit rulings not yet made, or the real RPI of out-of-state opponents whose full schedules we do not hold.
1 team with almost no reported games and no computable RPI today (Spring Creek) is held out of the simulated field.
Chances are good to a few points, not exact: 20,000 simulated finishes, and rarer scenarios re-run with the team's own results fixed.
Data check: records match NCHSAA for 379 of 389 teams (table dated October 17); 110 past-dated games are still unscored, 0 of them with an NCHSAA team.