← Week 10 report · Title races and the RPI bubble →
2026 NCHSAA Football Playoff Projections
Week 10. The bracket is the most likely path: the field is the teams most likely to make it, the same teams above the line in each RPI bubble, seeded on their projected final RPI, and every game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts. The title odds beside it come from playing the rest of the season and the playoffs 120 times, upsets included — a 60% favorite wins this bracket every time and the title 60% of the time. Field sizes and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 48 teams in 1A-7A and 24 in 8A, split east and west by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final and the final at a neutral site.
8A
Projected champion: Hough · wins the title in 53% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 21 | Broughton | 4-4-0 | 100% | In | 0.51044 | 21 | 0.5042 |
| 22 | South Mecklenburg | 3-5-0 | 93% | In | 0.45926 | 22 | 0.4716 |
| 23 | Wakefield | 3-5-0 | 85% | In | 0.45731 | 23 | 0.4666 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 24 | Willow Spring | 3-5-0 | 72% | Bubble | 0.45302 | 24 | 0.4471 |
| Projected cut · top 24 make the field | |||||||
| 25 | Apex | 3-6-0 | 18% | Bubble | 0.41628 | 26 | 0.4159 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 26 | East Mecklenburg | 4-4-0 | 11% | Out | 0.40335 | 28 | 0.4104 |
| 27 | Corinth Holders | 2-6-0 | 9% | Out | 0.40753 | 27 | 0.4153 |
| 28 | Enloe | 3-5-0 | 8% | Out | 0.41734 | 25 | 0.4115 |
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Panther Creek219Laney26Laney 64% · at Panther Creek
5Green Hope3612Willow Spring16Green Hope 91% · at Green Hope
7Leesville Road3410Broughton17Leesville Road 87% · at Leesville Road
6Jordan3511Wakefield17Jordan 88% · at Jordan
Second Round
1Millbrook459Laney13Millbrook 98% · at Millbrook
4Rolesville435Green Hope13Rolesville 97% · at Rolesville
2Hoggard357Leesville Road17Hoggard 88% · at Hoggard
3Apex Friendship276Jordan20Apex Friendship 70% · at Apex Friendship
Third Round
1Millbrook274Rolesville20Millbrook 70% · at Millbrook
2Hoggard353Apex Friendship17Hoggard 89% · at Hoggard
Regional Final
1Millbrook302Hoggard19Millbrook 77% · at Millbrook
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Pinecrest339Hoke County18Pinecrest 85% · at Pinecrest
5Myers Park4312South Mecklenburg14Myers Park 96% · at Myers Park
7West Charlotte2610Ardrey Kell20West Charlotte 66% · at West Charlotte
6Palisades3311Providence18Palisades 85% · at Palisades
Second Round
1Hough448Pinecrest13Hough 97% · at Hough
4Mallard Creek295Myers Park19Mallard Creek 76% · at Mallard Creek
2Chambers387West Charlotte15Chambers 93% · at Chambers
3West Forsyth326Palisades18West Forsyth 83% · at West Forsyth
Third Round
1Hough374Mallard Creek16Hough 92% · at Hough
2Chambers243West Forsyth21Chambers 59% · at Chambers
Regional Final
1Hough332Chambers18Hough 85% · at Hough
State Championship
Hough29Millbrook19Hough 74% · neutral site
Every 8A team's projection — 32 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hough | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 53.3% |
| Chambers | 9.5-0.5 | 100% | 2.0 | 5.8% |
| Millbrook | 9.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.1 | 27.5% |
| West Forsyth | 8.6-1.4 | 100% | 3.1 | 4.2% |
| Hoggard | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.6 | 4.2% |
| Apex Friendship | 9.8-0.2 | 100% | 2.4 | 0.0% |
| Mallard Creek | 7.3-2.7 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.8% |
| Myers Park | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 5.2 | 0.0% |
| Rolesville | 6.9-2.1 | 100% | 4.1 | 4.2% |
| Palisades | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.6 | 0.0% |
| West Charlotte | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 7.6 | 0.0% |
| Pinecrest | 6.3-3.7 | 100% | 7.6 | 0.0% |
| Green Hope | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.1 | 0.0% |
| Hoke County | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.2 | 0.0% |
| Jordan | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 6.7 | 0.0% |
| Leesville Road | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| Ardrey Kell | 6.4-3.6 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Panther Creek | 5.9-4.1 | 100% | 7.8 | 0.0% |
| Laney | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 8.5 | 0.0% |
| Providence | 5.3-4.7 | 100% | 10.4 | 0.0% |
| Broughton | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 9.8 | 0.0% |
| South Mecklenburg | 4.0-6.0 | 93% | 11.9 | 0.0% |
| Wakefield | 3.8-6.2 | 85% | 11.1 | 0.0% |
| Willow Spring | 3.1-6.9 | 72% | 11.6 | 0.0% |
| Apex | 3.3-6.7 | 18% | 11.7 | 0.0% |
| East Mecklenburg | 4.2-5.8 | 11% | 11.9 | 0.0% |
| Corinth Holders | 2.6-7.4 | 9% | 11.9 | 0.0% |
| Enloe | 3.5-6.5 | 8% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Athens Drive | 2.4-7.7 | 2% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Guilford | 0.8-9.2 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Garinger | 2.2-7.8 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Green Level | 1.1-8.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
7A
Projected champion: Weddington · wins the title in 27% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 43 | New Hanover | 2-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.45541 | 40 | 0.4306 |
| 44 | Independence | 1-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.44948 | 42 | 0.4302 |
| 45 | East Wake | 2-6-0 | 97% | In | 0.41018 | 46 | 0.4261 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 46 | Purnell Swett | 3-5-0 | 80% | Bubble | 0.42221 | 45 | 0.4238 |
| 47 | South Iredell | 1-7-0 | 78% | Bubble | 0.37586 | 47 | 0.3958 |
| 48 | Riverside | 1-7-0 | 52% | Bubble | 0.34869 | 53 | 0.3803 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | North Mecklenburg | 2-6-0 | 48% | Bubble | 0.37537 | 48 | 0.3866 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 50 | Chapel Hill | 2-6-0 | 12% | Out | 0.37283 | 50 | 0.3646 |
| 51 | Lumberton | 1-7-0 | 11% | Out | 0.34353 | 54 | 0.3597 |
| 52 | Cox Mill | 2-6-0 | 10% | Out | 0.34124 | 56 | 0.3695 |
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16North Brunswick2217Topsail22Topsail 50% · at North Brunswick
9D H Conley4624Riverside12D H Conley 98% · at D H Conley
13South Central2820Sanderson19South Central 73% · at South Central
12Ashley2121South Garner25South Garner 62% · at Ashley
15Heritage2118Fuquay-Varina25Fuquay-Varina 63% · at Heritage
10Southeast Raleigh4923East Wake11Southeast Raleigh 99% · at Southeast Raleigh
14Holly Springs2919Pine Forest19Holly Springs 75% · at Holly Springs
11Hillside2722New Hanover20Hillside 70% · at Hillside
Second Round
1Clayton4617Topsail12Clayton 98% · at Clayton
8Cape Fear259D H Conley21Cape Fear 63% · at Cape Fear
4New Bern3313South Central18New Bern 84% · at New Bern
5Cardinal Gibbons4221South Garner14Cardinal Gibbons 96% · at Cardinal Gibbons
2Cleveland4518Fuquay-Varina13Cleveland 97% · at Cleveland
7Southern School of Energy and Sustainability2010Southeast Raleigh28Southeast Raleigh 73% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
3Garner4414Holly Springs13Garner 97% · at Garner
6Wake Forest4211Hillside14Wake Forest 96% · at Wake Forest
Third Round
1Clayton418Cape Fear15Clayton 95% · at Clayton
4New Bern185Cardinal Gibbons32Cardinal Gibbons 83% · at New Bern
2Cleveland2810Southeast Raleigh19Cleveland 73% · at Cleveland
3Garner296Wake Forest19Garner 75% · at Garner
Fourth Round
1Clayton265Cardinal Gibbons20Clayton 65% · at Clayton
2Cleveland273Garner20Cleveland 69% · at Cleveland
Regional Final
1Clayton222Cleveland23Cleveland 54% · at Clayton
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Jack Britt2417Porter Ridge21Jack Britt 59% · at Jack Britt
9Hickory Ridge4524South Iredell13Hickory Ridge 98% · at Hickory Ridge
13West Cabarrus2320Overhills22West Cabarrus 53% · at West Cabarrus
12Butler4321Parkland13Butler 97% · at Butler
15Hopewell2618R J Reynolds20Hopewell 65% · at Hopewell
10Davie County4323Purnell Swett14Davie County 97% · at Davie County
14Richmond4319Ballantyne Ridge13Richmond 97% · at Richmond
11Mooresville3822Independence16Mooresville 92% · at Mooresville
Second Round
1Weddington4816Jack Britt11Weddington 99% · at Weddington
8East Forsyth279Hickory Ridge20East Forsyth 67% · at East Forsyth
4Reagan4713West Cabarrus12Reagan 98% · at Reagan
5A L Brown3112Butler18A L Brown 81% · at A L Brown
2Grimsley4815Hopewell12Grimsley 98% · at Grimsley
7Page3010Davie County19Page 78% · at Page
3Lake Norman3614Richmond16Lake Norman 91% · at Lake Norman
6Marvin Ridge2511Mooresville21Marvin Ridge 61% · at Marvin Ridge
Third Round
1Weddington378East Forsyth16Weddington 91% · at Weddington
4Reagan325A L Brown18Reagan 83% · at Reagan
2Grimsley367Page16Grimsley 90% · at Grimsley
3Lake Norman336Marvin Ridge17Lake Norman 86% · at Lake Norman
Fourth Round
1Weddington314Reagan18Weddington 81% · at Weddington
2Grimsley253Lake Norman21Grimsley 63% · at Grimsley
Regional Final
1Weddington262Grimsley20Weddington 67% · at Weddington
State Championship
Weddington28Cleveland19Weddington 73% · neutral site
Every 7A team's projection — 60 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weddington | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 26.7% |
| Grimsley | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 2.0 | 20.8% |
| Clayton | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.8 | 10.8% |
| Lake Norman | 9.7-0.3 | 100% | 3.9 | 7.5% |
| Cleveland | 8.6-1.4 | 100% | 1.7 | 15.8% |
| Reagan | 8.1-1.9 | 100% | 4.1 | 5.0% |
| A L Brown | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 4.5 | 0.8% |
| Garner | 7.4-2.6 | 100% | 3.2 | 7.5% |
| Marvin Ridge | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 5.5 | 0.8% |
| New Bern | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 4.2 | 0.0% |
| Cardinal Gibbons | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.8 | 1.7% |
| Wake Forest | 7.7-2.3 | 100% | 6.2 | 0.8% |
| Southern School of Energy and Sustainability | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.7 | 0.8% |
| Page | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| Cape Fear | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| D H Conley | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Raleigh | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 8.5 | 0.8% |
| East Forsyth | 6.3-3.6 | 100% | 9.1 | 0.0% |
| Hickory Ridge | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.8 | 0.0% |
| Davie County | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 9.5 | 0.0% |
| Mooresville | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.0% |
| Hillside | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.8 | 0.0% |
| Ashley | 5.9-4.1 | 100% | 12.3 | 0.0% |
| Butler | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 12.2 | 0.0% |
| West Cabarrus | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 13.6 | 0.0% |
| Richmond | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 14.2 | 0.0% |
| South Central | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 14.5 | 0.0% |
| Holly Springs | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Heritage | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.4 | 0.0% |
| Hopewell | 5.7-4.3 | 100% | 14.7 | 0.0% |
| North Brunswick | 5.2-4.8 | 100% | 16.6 | 0.0% |
| Jack Britt | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 16.1 | 0.0% |
| Topsail | 3.8-6.2 | 100% | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| Fuquay-Varina | 3.6-6.4 | 100% | 17.8 | 0.0% |
| Porter Ridge | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 17.1 | 0.0% |
| R J Reynolds | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 18.5 | 0.0% |
| Pine Forest | 3.6-6.4 | 100% | 20.1 | 0.0% |
| Sanderson | 4.0-5.0 | 100% | 20.6 | 0.0% |
| South Garner | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 20.3 | 0.0% |
| Ballantyne Ridge | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 19.9 | 0.0% |
| Overhills | 3.7-6.3 | 100% | 20.7 | 0.0% |
| Parkland | 3.6-6.4 | 100% | 20.6 | 0.0% |
| New Hanover | 2.4-7.6 | 100% | 21.6 | 0.0% |
| Independence | 1.6-8.4 | 100% | 20.8 | 0.0% |
| East Wake | 3.7-6.3 | 97% | 22.1 | 0.0% |
| Purnell Swett | 4.1-5.9 | 80% | 20.6 | 0.0% |
| South Iredell | 2.0-8.0 | 78% | 23.4 | 0.0% |
| Riverside | 2.6-7.4 | 52% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| North Mecklenburg | 2.9-7.1 | 48% | 22.7 | 0.0% |
| Chapel Hill | 2.4-7.6 | 12% | 23.1 | 0.0% |
| Lumberton | 1.3-8.7 | 11% | 23.4 | 0.0% |
| Cox Mill | 2.5-7.5 | 10% | 23.9 | 0.0% |
| Southwest Guilford | 1.4-8.6 | 7% | 22.2 | 0.0% |
| Cary | 3.0-7.0 | 2% | 23.7 | 0.0% |
| Cuthbertson | 1.0-9.0 | 2% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| McDowell | 1.1-8.9 | 1% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| West Mecklenburg | 1.1-8.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Smithfield-Selma | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Knightdale | 0.2-9.8 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Rocky River | 0.1-9.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
6A
Projected champion: Junius H Rose · wins the title in 29% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 42 | West Johnston | 3-5-0 | 99% | In | 0.45321 | 38 | 0.4561 |
| 43 | West Brunswick | 2-7-0 | 94% | In | 0.41859 | 43 | 0.4140 |
| 44 | South View | 3-5-0 | 92% | In | 0.40446 | 46 | 0.4220 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 45 | Central Cabarrus | 2-6-0 | 82% | Bubble | 0.43114 | 42 | 0.4353 |
| 46 | Lee County | 1-7-0 | 76% | Bubble | 0.38878 | 50 | 0.4026 |
| 47 | Saint Stephens | 2-6-0 | 75% | Bubble | 0.39314 | 48 | 0.4035 |
| 48 | Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology | 3-5-0 | 56% | Bubble | 0.40033 | 47 | 0.3998 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | Western Guilford | 3-5-0 | 52% | Bubble | 0.40871 | 45 | 0.4006 |
| 50 | Vance County | 1-7-0 | 23% | Bubble | 0.39032 | 49 | 0.3898 |
| 51 | E E Smith | 1-7-0 | 16% | Bubble | 0.34701 | 54 | 0.3721 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 52 | Harding University | 2-6-0 | 14% | Out | 0.37189 | 52 | 0.3699 |
| 53 | Western Harnett | 3-5-0 | 13% | Out | 0.37188 | 53 | 0.3749 |
| 54 | Southeast Guilford | 1-7-0 | 8% | Out | 0.37401 | 51 | 0.3780 |
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Felton Grove3717Northern16Felton Grove 91% · at Felton Grove
9Seventy-First4724Lee County12Seventy-First 98% · at Seventy-First
13Swansboro2320Terry Sanford22Swansboro 54% · at Swansboro
12Triton3521White Oak17Triton 89% · at Triton
15South Johnston2518Gray's Creek21South Johnston 62% · at South Johnston
10Harnett Central3623West Brunswick16Harnett Central 91% · at Harnett Central
14Westover3719West Johnston16Westover 91% · at Westover
11Franklinton3422South View17Franklinton 88% · at Franklinton
Second Round
1Junius H Rose4916Felton Grove11Junius H Rose 99% · at Junius H Rose
8Williams199Seventy-First30Seventy-First 79% · at Williams
4Northern Nash4513Swansboro13Northern Nash 98% · at Northern Nash
5Scotland4312Triton14Scotland 96% · at Scotland
2Jacksonville4615South Johnston12Jacksonville 98% · at Jacksonville
7Middle Creek3810Harnett Central15Middle Creek 93% · at Middle Creek
3Union Pines3314Westover17Union Pines 86% · at Union Pines
6Southern Alamance2811Franklinton19Southern Alamance 74% · at Southern Alamance
Third Round
1Junius H Rose319Seventy-First18Junius H Rose 81% · at Junius H Rose
4Northern Nash245Scotland21Northern Nash 56% · at Northern Nash
2Jacksonville247Middle Creek21Jacksonville 58% · at Jacksonville
3Union Pines236Southern Alamance22Union Pines 52% · at Union Pines
Fourth Round
1Junius H Rose264Northern Nash20Junius H Rose 67% · at Junius H Rose
2Jacksonville323Union Pines18Jacksonville 84% · at Jacksonville
Regional Final
1Junius H Rose252Jacksonville21Junius H Rose 61% · at Junius H Rose
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Olympic2717Eastern Guilford20Olympic 69% · at Olympic
9Ashbrook4524Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology13Ashbrook 98% · at Ashbrook
13Glenn3020Central Cabarrus19Glenn 77% · at Glenn
12Sun Valley4421South Caldwell13Sun Valley 97% · at Sun Valley
15Reynolds2118Ragsdale25Ragsdale 63% · at Reynolds
10Charlotte Catholic4023Saint Stephens15Charlotte Catholic 95% · at Charlotte Catholic
14Watauga2219Statesville23Statesville 52% · at Watauga
11Northern Guilford3322Piedmont18Northern Guilford 84% · at Northern Guilford
Second Round
1Asheville3516Olympic17Asheville 88% · at Asheville
8Alexander Central199Ashbrook31Ashbrook 80% · at Alexander Central
4Kings Mountain4213Glenn14Kings Mountain 96% · at Kings Mountain
5Freedom1912Sun Valley29Sun Valley 74% · at Freedom
2Roberson4318Ragsdale14Roberson 96% · at Roberson
7Mount Tabor2410Charlotte Catholic21Mount Tabor 58% · at Mount Tabor
3Asheboro2719Statesville20Asheboro 69% · at Asheboro
6Dudley3011Northern Guilford19Dudley 78% · at Dudley
Third Round
1Asheville229Ashbrook22Asheville 51% · at Asheville
4Kings Mountain3312Sun Valley17Kings Mountain 86% · at Kings Mountain
2Roberson347Mount Tabor17Roberson 86% · at Roberson
3Asheboro206Dudley26Dudley 66% · at Asheboro
Fourth Round
1Asheville194Kings Mountain30Kings Mountain 77% · at Asheville
2Roberson336Dudley18Roberson 84% · at Roberson
Regional Final
2Roberson244Kings Mountain21Roberson 59% · at Roberson
State Championship
Junius H Rose26Roberson20Junius H Rose 65% · neutral site
Every 6A team's projection — 58 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junius H Rose | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 1.0 | 29.2% |
| Asheville | 8.7-1.3 | 100% | 1.2 | 0.8% |
| Jacksonville | 6.9-2.1 | 100% | 2.8 | 15.0% |
| Union Pines | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Northern Nash | 7.8-2.2 | 100% | 3.9 | 8.3% |
| Scotland | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 4.0 | 10.8% |
| Southern Alamance | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 5.6 | 0.8% |
| Roberson | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.6 | 16.7% |
| Middle Creek | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.4 | 3.3% |
| Williams | 5.9-2.1 | 100% | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| Asheboro | 8.3-1.7 | 100% | 3.3 | 0.0% |
| Seventy-First | 8.8-1.2 | 100% | 8.7 | 1.7% |
| Kings Mountain | 7.6-2.4 | 100% | 4.1 | 11.7% |
| Harnett Central | 8.8-1.2 | 100% | 9.9 | 0.0% |
| Franklinton | 8.2-1.8 | 100% | 10.6 | 0.0% |
| Freedom | 8.4-1.6 | 100% | 5.9 | 0.0% |
| Triton | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 11.2 | 0.0% |
| Dudley | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 7.4 | 0.0% |
| Mount Tabor | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.8% |
| Swansboro | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Alexander Central | 7.5-2.5 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Ashbrook | 5.3-4.7 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.8% |
| Charlotte Catholic | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 10.5 | 0.0% |
| Northern Guilford | 5.7-4.3 | 100% | 10.4 | 0.0% |
| Sun Valley | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 11.1 | 0.0% |
| Westover | 5.9-4.1 | 100% | 14.2 | 0.0% |
| Glenn | 6.3-3.7 | 100% | 12.9 | 0.0% |
| South Johnston | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.9 | 0.0% |
| Watauga | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 15.2 | 0.0% |
| Reynolds | 3.2-6.8 | 100% | 16.1 | 0.0% |
| Olympic | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 16.5 | 0.0% |
| Felton Grove | 4.2-4.8 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Guilford | 3.3-5.7 | 100% | 17.1 | 0.0% |
| Ragsdale | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| Statesville | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 18.1 | 0.0% |
| Northern | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 18.4 | 0.0% |
| Gray's Creek | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 18.6 | 0.0% |
| Terry Sanford | 3.8-6.2 | 100% | 18.4 | 0.0% |
| South Caldwell | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| White Oak | 2.1-6.9 | 100% | 20.6 | 0.0% |
| Piedmont | 3.2-6.8 | 100% | 21.7 | 0.0% |
| West Johnston | 4.2-5.8 | 99% | 18.8 | 0.0% |
| West Brunswick | 2.1-7.9 | 94% | 22.4 | 0.0% |
| South View | 3.5-6.5 | 92% | 21.6 | 0.0% |
| Central Cabarrus | 3.1-6.9 | 82% | 20.1 | 0.0% |
| Lee County | 2.0-8.0 | 76% | 23.4 | 0.0% |
| Saint Stephens | 3.0-7.0 | 75% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology | 3.6-6.4 | 56% | 22.3 | 0.0% |
| Western Guilford | 3.1-6.9 | 52% | 23.4 | 0.0% |
| Vance County | 1.2-8.8 | 23% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| E E Smith | 2.3-7.7 | 16% | 23.3 | 0.0% |
| Harding University | 2.3-7.7 | 14% | 23.5 | 0.0% |
| Western Harnett | 3.1-6.9 | 13% | 22.3 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Guilford | 2.1-7.9 | 8% | 21.8 | 0.0% |
| Ben L. Smith | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Iredell | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Lee | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Chapel Hill | 1.1-7.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
5A
Projected champion: Jay M Robinson · wins the title in 15% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 44 | Southern Wayne | 3-6-0 | 97% | In | 0.44613 | 43 | 0.4336 |
| 45 | Forestview | 1-7-0 | 92% | In | 0.39821 | 49 | 0.4120 |
| 46 | Huss | 3-5-0 | 88% | In | 0.42483 | 46 | 0.4146 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 47 | North Lincoln | 2-6-0 | 83% | Bubble | 0.43689 | 44 | 0.4431 |
| 48 | Charles B Aycock | 2-6-0 | 64% | Bubble | 0.42709 | 45 | 0.4207 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | Concord | 1-7-0 | 48% | Bubble | 0.40890 | 48 | 0.3991 |
| 50 | Dixon | 2-6-0 | 19% | Bubble | 0.36807 | 51 | 0.3900 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 51 | Richlands | 1-7-0 | 10% | Out | 0.38042 | 50 | 0.3730 |
| 52 | Atkins | 1-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.36210 | 52 | 0.3515 |
| 53 | North Forsyth Magnet | 1-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34166 | 53 | 0.3507 |
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Southern Nash2817Rockingham County20Southern Nash 71% · at Southern Nash
9Rocky Mount4224Charles B Aycock14Rocky Mount 96% · at Rocky Mount
13Western Alamance3520J. F. Webb17Western Alamance 88% · at Western Alamance
12Saint Pauls4021South Brunswick15Saint Pauls 94% · at Saint Pauls
15Montgomery Central2918Currituck County19Montgomery Central 76% · at Montgomery Central
10Havelock4323Person14Havelock 97% · at Havelock
14Orange2319West Carteret21Orange 56% · at Orange
11South Granville3122Southern Wayne18South Granville 80% · at South Granville
Second Round
1Southeast Alamance4016Southern Nash15Southeast Alamance 95% · at Southeast Alamance
8Eastern Alamance269Rocky Mount21Eastern Alamance 64% · at Eastern Alamance
4Croatan3713Western Alamance16Croatan 92% · at Croatan
5Hunt2612Saint Pauls20Hunt 67% · at Hunt
2Northside4515Montgomery Central13Northside 98% · at Northside
7Northeast Guilford2510Havelock21Northeast Guilford 62% · at Northeast Guilford
3Fike4714Orange12Fike 98% · at Fike
6Seaforth3311South Granville18Seaforth 85% · at Seaforth
Third Round
1Southeast Alamance258Eastern Alamance21Southeast Alamance 60% · at Southeast Alamance
4Croatan265Hunt20Croatan 64% · at Croatan
2Northside317Northeast Guilford18Northside 82% · at Northside
3Fike386Seaforth15Fike 93% · at Fike
Fourth Round
1Southeast Alamance274Croatan20Southeast Alamance 67% · at Southeast Alamance
2Northside273Fike20Northside 69% · at Northside
Regional Final
1Southeast Alamance202Northside28Northside 73% · at Southeast Alamance
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Carson2017Parkwood28Parkwood 71% · at Carson
9Enka3924Forestview15Enka 94% · at Enka
13Smoky Mountain4320North Buncombe14Smoky Mountain 96% · at Smoky Mountain
12Northwest Cabarrus3721North Henderson16Northwest Cabarrus 92% · at Northwest Cabarrus
15West Henderson2118Erwin23Erwin 55% · at West Henderson
10Forest Hills2923Huss19Forest Hills 75% · at Forest Hills
14North Davidson4219East Rowan14North Davidson 96% · at North Davidson
11Oak Grove4622North Lincoln12Oak Grove 98% · at Oak Grove
Second Round
1Jay M Robinson4417Parkwood13Jay M Robinson 97% · at Jay M Robinson
8Hickory419Enka14Hickory 95% · at Hickory
4Franklin2713Smoky Mountain20Franklin 69% · at Franklin
5Monroe3912Northwest Cabarrus15Monroe 94% · at Monroe
2South Point4518Erwin13South Point 97% · at South Point
7West Rowan2810Forest Hills20West Rowan 71% · at West Rowan
3Crest3414North Davidson17Crest 86% · at Crest
6East Lincoln2211Oak Grove23Oak Grove 55% · at East Lincoln
Third Round
1Jay M Robinson248Hickory21Jay M Robinson 59% · at Jay M Robinson
4Franklin205Monroe27Monroe 68% · at Franklin
2South Point367West Rowan16South Point 91% · at South Point
3Crest2211Oak Grove22Crest 52% · at Crest
Fourth Round
1Jay M Robinson265Monroe20Jay M Robinson 67% · at Jay M Robinson
2South Point253Crest21South Point 63% · at South Point
Regional Final
1Jay M Robinson242South Point21Jay M Robinson 57% · at Jay M Robinson
State Championship
Northside21Jay M Robinson24Jay M Robinson 59% · neutral site
Every 5A team's projection — 57 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Alamance | 9.6-0.4 | 100% | 1.4 | 5.8% |
| Northside | 9.8-0.2 | 100% | 1.7 | 27.5% |
| Jay M Robinson | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 2.0 | 15.0% |
| South Point | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.9 | 16.7% |
| Crest | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 5.0% |
| Franklin | 9.6-0.4 | 100% | 2.7 | 0.8% |
| Monroe | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 5.7 | 3.3% |
| East Lincoln | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 6.3 | 2.5% |
| West Rowan | 7.6-2.4 | 100% | 6.3 | 0.8% |
| Fike | 8.8-1.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 5.0% |
| Croatan | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.3 | 1.7% |
| Hunt | 7.5-2.5 | 100% | 5.7 | 0.0% |
| Seaforth | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 0.0% |
| Northeast Guilford | 7.5-2.5 | 100% | 6.3 | 0.8% |
| Hickory | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.1 | 6.7% |
| Enka | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 10.1 | 0.0% |
| Forest Hills | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 10.2 | 0.0% |
| Oak Grove | 7.7-2.3 | 100% | 9.3 | 5.8% |
| Eastern Alamance | 6.4-2.6 | 100% | 7.6 | 0.8% |
| Northwest Cabarrus | 7.4-2.6 | 100% | 10.3 | 0.0% |
| Smoky Mountain | 8.3-1.7 | 100% | 11.1 | 0.8% |
| Rocky Mount | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 8.9 | 0.8% |
| Havelock | 5.2-4.8 | 100% | 9.6 | 0.0% |
| North Davidson | 7.2-2.8 | 100% | 13.1 | 0.0% |
| South Granville | 6.3-3.7 | 100% | 12.8 | 0.0% |
| West Henderson | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 15.5 | 0.0% |
| Saint Pauls | 6.7-3.3 | 100% | 14.2 | 0.0% |
| Western Alamance | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 13.8 | 0.0% |
| Carson | 4.6-5.4 | 100% | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| Orange | 5.4-4.6 | 100% | 14.7 | 0.0% |
| Montgomery Central | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 15.3 | 0.0% |
| Parkwood | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| Southern Nash | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.4 | 0.0% |
| Erwin | 3.7-6.3 | 100% | 17.7 | 0.0% |
| Rockingham County | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 16.9 | 0.0% |
| Currituck County | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 17.2 | 0.0% |
| West Carteret | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 19.1 | 0.0% |
| East Rowan | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 19.6 | 0.0% |
| J. F. Webb | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 19.7 | 0.0% |
| South Brunswick | 5.4-4.6 | 100% | 20.4 | 0.0% |
| North Buncombe | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 19.9 | 0.0% |
| North Henderson | 2.3-7.7 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Person | 2.1-7.9 | 99% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Southern Wayne | 3.5-6.5 | 97% | 22.2 | 0.0% |
| Forestview | 1.9-8.1 | 92% | 22.9 | 0.0% |
| Huss | 3.1-6.9 | 88% | 23.1 | 0.0% |
| North Lincoln | 3.1-6.9 | 83% | 20.3 | 0.0% |
| Charles B Aycock | 2.6-7.4 | 64% | 21.9 | 0.0% |
| Concord | 1.8-8.2 | 48% | 22.6 | 0.0% |
| Dixon | 2.7-7.3 | 19% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Richlands | 1.3-8.7 | 10% | 23.5 | 0.0% |
| Atkins | 1.5-8.5 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 1.5-8.5 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Gaston | 0.1-9.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Guilford | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Douglas Byrd | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cedar Ridge | 0.2-7.8 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
4A
Projected champion: West Iredell · wins the title in 20% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 44 | Jordan-Matthews | 4-5-0 | 100% | In | 0.41138 | 45 | 0.4138 |
| 45 | Central Davidson | 3-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.40144 | 46 | 0.4021 |
| 46 | Cummings | 1-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.37994 | 47 | 0.3927 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 47 | Lincoln Charter | 1-7-0 | 44% | Bubble | 0.35536 | 48 | 0.3618 |
| 48 | Carver | 2-6-0 | 32% | Bubble | 0.32399 | 52 | 0.3417 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | East Henderson | 1-7-0 | 16% | Bubble | 0.33744 | 49 | 0.3483 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 50 | Ashe County | 1-7-0 | 2% | Out | 0.32407 | 51 | 0.3442 |
| 51 | North Johnston | 1-7-0 | 2% | Out | 0.31390 | 53 | 0.3361 |
| 52 | Red Springs | 2-6-0 | 2% | Out | 0.31185 | 54 | 0.3334 |
48 of 56 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Anson2417North Pitt21Anson 59% · at Anson
9Fairmont4224Carver14Fairmont 96% · at Fairmont
13Ledford2320Lexington21Ledford 56% · at Ledford
12Nash Central4321Jordan-Matthews13Nash Central 97% · at Nash Central
15Randleman2518Washington21Randleman 61% · at Randleman
10Eastern Wayne4123Cummings15Eastern Wayne 95% · at Eastern Wayne
14Roanoke Rapids2219Southwest23Southwest 54% · at Roanoke Rapids
11Bunn2422Central Davidson21Bunn 58% · at Bunn
Second Round
1East Duplin3516Anson17East Duplin 89% · at East Duplin
8Morehead229Fairmont23Fairmont 53% · at Morehead
4SouthWest Edgecombe3513Ledford17SouthWest Edgecombe 89% · at SouthWest Edgecombe
5West Craven4412Nash Central13West Craven 97% · at West Craven
2T Wingate Andrews4215Randleman14T Wingate Andrews 96% · at T Wingate Andrews
7Southwestern Randolph1910Eastern Wayne29Eastern Wayne 74% · at Southwestern Randolph
3Clinton3319Southwest18Clinton 85% · at Clinton
6Reidsville4411Bunn13Reidsville 97% · at Reidsville
Third Round
1East Duplin429Fairmont14East Duplin 96% · at East Duplin
4SouthWest Edgecombe185West Craven31West Craven 80% · at SouthWest Edgecombe
2T Wingate Andrews3510Eastern Wayne17T Wingate Andrews 88% · at T Wingate Andrews
3Clinton166Reidsville37Reidsville 92% · at Clinton
Fourth Round
1East Duplin205West Craven26West Craven 65% · at East Duplin
2T Wingate Andrews226Reidsville22Reidsville 51% · at T Wingate Andrews
Regional Final
5West Craven226Reidsville22Reidsville 52% · at West Craven
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16North Surry2017Newton-Conover27Newton-Conover 70% · at North Surry
9Wilkes Central4724Lincoln Charter12Wilkes Central 98% · at Wilkes Central
13West Stanly3020East Gaston19West Stanly 79% · at West Stanly
12East Burke2121Bandys25Bandys 62% · at East Burke
15South Rowan2118Bunker Hill24Bunker Hill 59% · at South Rowan
10R-S Central4223Forbush14R-S Central 96% · at R-S Central
14Maiden4219Salisbury14Maiden 96% · at Maiden
11Pisgah3422Foard17Pisgah 87% · at Pisgah
Second Round
1West Iredell4117Newton-Conover14West Iredell 96% · at West Iredell
8Lake Norman Charter189Wilkes Central31Wilkes Central 81% · at Lake Norman Charter
4Burns4313West Stanly14Burns 96% · at Burns
5Mount Pleasant2921Bandys19Mount Pleasant 76% · at Mount Pleasant
2Tuscola4218Bunker Hill14Tuscola 96% · at Tuscola
7Stuart W Cramer3610R-S Central16Stuart W Cramer 90% · at Stuart W Cramer
3Hibriten3614Maiden16Hibriten 91% · at Hibriten
6West Stokes2911Pisgah19West Stokes 75% · at West Stokes
Third Round
1West Iredell389Wilkes Central16West Iredell 92% · at West Iredell
4Burns315Mount Pleasant18Burns 81% · at Burns
2Tuscola267Stuart W Cramer20Tuscola 66% · at Tuscola
3Hibriten336West Stokes18Hibriten 85% · at Hibriten
Fourth Round
1West Iredell274Burns20West Iredell 70% · at West Iredell
2Tuscola223Hibriten22Tuscola 51% · at Tuscola
Regional Final
1West Iredell232Tuscola22West Iredell 54% · at West Iredell
State Championship
West Iredell24Reidsville21West Iredell 58% · neutral site
Every 4A team's projection — 56 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Iredell | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 1.1 | 20.0% |
| Tuscola | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.2 | 13.3% |
| East Duplin | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 1.1 | 5.0% |
| Hibriten | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.6 | 10.0% |
| T Wingate Andrews | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 2.2 | 15.8% |
| Burns | 7.3-2.7 | 100% | 4.8 | 5.0% |
| Clinton | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 3.6 | 0.0% |
| Mount Pleasant | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 5.2 | 0.0% |
| SouthWest Edgecombe | 7.2-2.8 | 100% | 4.5 | 0.0% |
| West Craven | 7.6-2.4 | 100% | 4.5 | 14.2% |
| Reidsville | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.3 | 11.7% |
| West Stokes | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 6.7 | 2.5% |
| Stuart W Cramer | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 7.5 | 2.5% |
| Lake Norman Charter | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Wilkes Central | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 9.1 | 0.0% |
| R-S Central | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 9.7 | 0.0% |
| Pisgah | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.8 | 0.0% |
| East Burke | 5.6-4.4 | 100% | 12.1 | 0.0% |
| Southwestern Randolph | 7.5-2.5 | 100% | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| West Stanly | 4.4-5.6 | 100% | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Maiden | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 14.3 | 0.0% |
| South Rowan | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.4 | 0.0% |
| Morehead | 5.4-4.6 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.0% |
| Fairmont | 4.6-5.4 | 100% | 11.5 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Wayne | 5.8-3.2 | 100% | 11.7 | 0.0% |
| North Surry | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 16.3 | 0.0% |
| Bunn | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 13.1 | 0.0% |
| Nash Central | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 12.7 | 0.0% |
| Newton-Conover | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.6 | 0.0% |
| Ledford | 3.9-6.2 | 100% | 13.9 | 0.0% |
| Roanoke Rapids | 4.4-5.6 | 100% | 13.3 | 0.0% |
| Bunker Hill | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 17.7 | 0.0% |
| Randleman | 3.6-6.4 | 100% | 13.9 | 0.0% |
| Anson | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 15.5 | 0.0% |
| North Pitt | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 15.8 | 0.0% |
| Salisbury | 2.5-7.5 | 100% | 19.5 | 0.0% |
| Washington | 2.7-7.3 | 100% | 17.1 | 0.0% |
| Southwest | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 17.8 | 0.0% |
| East Gaston | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 20.9 | 0.0% |
| Bandys | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.7 | 0.0% |
| Foard | 2.7-7.3 | 100% | 21.1 | 0.0% |
| Forbush | 4.4-5.6 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| Lexington | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 20.2 | 0.0% |
| Jordan-Matthews | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| Central Davidson | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 22.2 | 0.0% |
| Cummings | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.9 | 0.0% |
| Lincoln Charter | 1.3-8.7 | 44% | 23.9 | 0.0% |
| Carver | 2.5-7.5 | 32% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| East Henderson | 1.0-9.0 | 16% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Ashe County | 1.0-9.0 | 2% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| North Johnston | 1.8-8.2 | 2% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Red Springs | 2.0-8.0 | 2% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Brevard | 1.0-9.0 | 1% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Carrboro | 1.8-8.2 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| First Flight | 0.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Lenoir | 0.2-9.8 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
3A
Projected champion: Shelby · wins the title in 40% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 45 | Bessemer City | 1-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.31329 | 49 | 0.3294 |
| 46 | Heide Trask | 2-6-0 | 99% | In | 0.33374 | 44 | 0.3357 |
| 47 | Bartlett Yancey | 1-7-0 | 91% | In | 0.31913 | 46 | 0.3431 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 48 | Draughn | 0-8-0 | 70% | Bubble | 0.31466 | 48 | 0.3219 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | McMichael | 1-7-0 | 25% | Bubble | 0.32791 | 45 | 0.3208 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 50 | Trinity | 1-7-0 | 13% | Out | 0.31567 | 47 | 0.3137 |
| 51 | Madison | 1-8-0 | 2% | Out | 0.30055 | 50 | 0.3073 |
| 52 | Goldsboro | 0-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.27963 | 52 | 0.3017 |
48 of 55 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Wake Preparatory Academy2117Farmville Central24Farmville Central 57% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
9Louisburg Magnet4124Heide Trask14Louisburg Magnet 95% · at Louisburg Magnet
13Greene Central4020Ayden-Grifton15Greene Central 94% · at Greene Central
12South Columbus4721North Moore12South Columbus 98% · at South Columbus
15Northwood1918Kinston30Kinston 79% · at Northwood
10Pasquotank County4623Bartlett Yancey12Pasquotank County 98% · at Pasquotank County
14Princeton3219Pender18Princeton 84% · at Princeton
11Providence Grove4522South Lenoir13Providence Grove 97% · at Providence Grove
Second Round
1Northeastern4217Farmville Central14Northeastern 96% · at Northeastern
8Wallace-Rose Hill419Louisburg Magnet14Wallace-Rose Hill 95% · at Wallace-Rose Hill
4James Kenan3013Greene Central19James Kenan 78% · at James Kenan
5Eastern Randolph3912South Columbus15Eastern Randolph 93% · at Eastern Randolph
2Midway2918Kinston19Midway 75% · at Midway
7Hertford County3210Pasquotank County18Hertford County 84% · at Hertford County
3Whiteville2214Princeton23Princeton 53% · at Whiteville
6Martin County3211Providence Grove18Martin County 83% · at Martin County
Third Round
1Northeastern288Wallace-Rose Hill20Northeastern 71% · at Northeastern
4James Kenan245Eastern Randolph21James Kenan 57% · at James Kenan
2Midway237Hertford County21Midway 56% · at Midway
6Martin County2414Princeton21Martin County 56% · at Martin County
Fourth Round
1Northeastern244James Kenan21Northeastern 57% · at Northeastern
2Midway236Martin County22Midway 54% · at Midway
Regional Final
1Northeastern292Midway19Northeastern 77% · at Northeastern
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Pine Lake Preparatory1817East Rutherford32East Rutherford 82% · at Pine Lake Preparatory
9Mountain Heritage4924Draughn11Mountain Heritage 99% · at Mountain Heritage
13Owen3320East Davidson17Owen 86% · at Owen
12West Wilkes3621Polk County17West Wilkes 90% · at West Wilkes
15East Surry2818West Lincoln20East Surry 72% · at East Surry
10Union Academy4323Bessemer City13Union Academy 97% · at Union Academy
14North Wilkes3219Wheatmore18North Wilkes 83% · at North Wilkes
11West Davidson4522Patton13West Davidson 98% · at West Davidson
Second Round
1North Stanly4317East Rutherford14North Stanly 96% · at North Stanly
8Lincolnton379Mountain Heritage16Lincolnton 92% · at Lincolnton
4Walkertown4113Owen14Walkertown 95% · at Walkertown
5Thomasville3512West Wilkes17Thomasville 88% · at Thomasville
2Shelby4615East Surry12Shelby 98% · at Shelby
7Chase2710Union Academy20Chase 69% · at Chase
3Hendersonville3914North Wilkes15Hendersonville 94% · at Hendersonville
6Mount Airy3311West Davidson17Mount Airy 86% · at Mount Airy
Third Round
1North Stanly228Lincolnton22Lincolnton 51% · at North Stanly
4Walkertown225Thomasville22Thomasville 51% · at Walkertown
2Shelby467Chase13Shelby 98% · at Shelby
3Hendersonville246Mount Airy21Hendersonville 60% · at Hendersonville
Fourth Round
5Thomasville198Lincolnton29Lincolnton 74% · at Thomasville
2Shelby363Hendersonville16Shelby 91% · at Shelby
Regional Final
2Shelby308Lincolnton19Shelby 79% · at Shelby
State Championship
Northeastern18Shelby31Shelby 80% · neutral site
Every 3A team's projection — 55 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Stanly | 8.9-0.1 | 100% | 1.0 | 6.7% |
| Northeastern | 9.7-1.3 | 100% | 1.6 | 14.2% |
| Shelby | 8.7-1.3 | 100% | 2.2 | 40.0% |
| Midway | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.4 | 2.5% |
| Whiteville | 9.7-0.3 | 100% | 2.2 | 0.0% |
| Hendersonville | 9.8-0.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.8% |
| James Kenan | 7.3-1.7 | 100% | 4.7 | 10.0% |
| Walkertown | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 4.0 | 1.7% |
| Eastern Randolph | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.6 | 4.2% |
| Thomasville | 8.8-1.2 | 100% | 5.4 | 0.8% |
| Martin County | 7.6-3.4 | 100% | 6.6 | 1.7% |
| Mount Airy | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 6.3 | 0.8% |
| Hertford County | 6.6-3.4 | 100% | 7.2 | 3.3% |
| Chase | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| Lincolnton | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 9.2% |
| Wallace-Rose Hill | 5.3-3.7 | 100% | 9.4 | 2.5% |
| Mountain Heritage | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 9.1 | 0.0% |
| Louisburg Magnet | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 9.5 | 0.0% |
| Union Academy | 7.1-2.9 | 100% | 10.4 | 0.0% |
| Pasquotank County | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 11.2 | 0.0% |
| Providence Grove | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 11.5 | 0.0% |
| West Davidson | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 10.9 | 0.0% |
| West Wilkes | 6.5-3.5 | 100% | 10.9 | 0.0% |
| South Columbus | 6.3-3.7 | 100% | 12.1 | 0.0% |
| Greene Central | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 12.8 | 0.0% |
| Princeton | 5.3-4.7 | 100% | 13.3 | 1.7% |
| Northwood | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.4 | 0.0% |
| Wake Preparatory Academy | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 14.7 | 0.0% |
| Farmville Central | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 15.8 | 0.0% |
| Owen | 5.3-4.7 | 100% | 13.5 | 0.0% |
| North Wilkes | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 14.4 | 0.0% |
| East Surry | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Kinston | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Pine Lake Preparatory | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 16.2 | 0.0% |
| East Rutherford | 2.5-7.5 | 100% | 16.7 | 0.0% |
| West Lincoln | 3.7-6.3 | 100% | 17.9 | 0.0% |
| Pender | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Wheatmore | 3.1-6.9 | 100% | 18.8 | 0.0% |
| East Davidson | 3.1-6.9 | 100% | 19.3 | 0.0% |
| Polk County | 2.6-7.4 | 100% | 20.8 | 0.0% |
| Ayden-Grifton | 2.3-7.7 | 100% | 20.8 | 0.0% |
| North Moore | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 21.2 | 0.0% |
| South Lenoir | 3.1-6.9 | 100% | 22.1 | 0.0% |
| Patton | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.5 | 0.0% |
| Bessemer City | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.9 | 0.0% |
| Heide Trask | 2.0-8.0 | 99% | 23.5 | 0.0% |
| Bartlett Yancey | 2.4-7.6 | 91% | 22.4 | 0.0% |
| Draughn | 0.0-10.0 | 70% | 23.8 | 0.0% |
| McMichael | 1.2-8.8 | 25% | 22.9 | 0.0% |
| Trinity | 1.1-8.9 | 13% | 23.2 | 0.0% |
| Madison | 1.0-9.0 | 2% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Goldsboro | 0.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Beddingfield | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| West Bladen | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Surry Central | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
2A
Projected champion: Tarboro · wins the title in 44% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16East Carteret2117Perquimans County25Perquimans County 62% · at East Carteret
13Bertie3520Pamlico County17Bertie 88% · at Bertie
12Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy2221Northampton County22Northampton County 51% · at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy
15Rosewood3218Union18Rosewood 84% · at Rosewood
10Camden County3623American Leadership Academy - Johnston16Camden County 90% · at Camden County
14Hobbton4119Lejeune14Hobbton 96% · at Hobbton
11West Columbus4822Triangle Math and Science Academy11West Columbus 98% · at West Columbus
Second Round
1Tarboro5117Perquimans County10Tarboro 99% · at Tarboro
8Southside179Gates County34Gates County 88% · at Southside
4Manteo3313Bertie17Manteo 86% · at Manteo
5Lakewood3721Northampton County16Lakewood 91% · at Lakewood
2Holmes4415Rosewood13Holmes 97% · at Holmes
7North Duplin Jr Sr2610Camden County20North Duplin Jr Sr 66% · at North Duplin Jr Sr
3Warren County4414Hobbton13Warren County 97% · at Warren County
6East Bladen3311West Columbus18East Bladen 84% · at East Bladen
Third Round
1Tarboro469Gates County13Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
4Manteo225Lakewood23Lakewood 52% · at Manteo
2Holmes447North Duplin Jr Sr13Holmes 97% · at Holmes
3Warren County436East Bladen14Warren County 96% · at Warren County
Fourth Round
1Tarboro475Lakewood12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
2Holmes223Warren County23Warren County 52% · at Holmes
Regional Final
1Tarboro303Warren County19Tarboro 78% · at Tarboro
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Bishop McGuinness2117Avery County25Avery County 62% · at Bishop McGuinness
13South Stokes2220Bradford Preparatory22South Stokes 51% · at South Stokes
12Mountain Island Charter4621Elkin12Mountain Island Charter 98% · at Mountain Island Charter
15Swain County3018South Stanly19Swain County 78% · at Swain County
10Mitchell5123Highland Tech10Mitchell 99% · at Mitchell
14Albemarle2519Langtree Charter Academy21Albemarle 60% · at Albemarle
11Cherryville4622Hayesville12Cherryville 98% · at Cherryville
Second Round
1Corvian Community4817Avery County12Corvian Community 98% · at Corvian Community
8Cherokee169East Wilkes37East Wilkes 92% · at Cherokee
4Murphy4613South Stokes12Murphy 98% · at Murphy
5Community School of Davidson3912Mountain Island Charter15Community School of Davidson 93% · at Community School of Davidson
2Starmount4315Swain County14Starmount 97% · at Starmount
7Christ the King2610Mitchell20Christ the King 67% · at Christ the King
3North Rowan4514Albemarle13North Rowan 98% · at North Rowan
6Alleghany2811Cherryville20Alleghany 71% · at Alleghany
Third Round
1Corvian Community279East Wilkes20Corvian Community 68% · at Corvian Community
4Murphy215Community School of Davidson25Community School of Davidson 62% · at Murphy
2Starmount297Christ the King19Starmount 74% · at Starmount
3North Rowan286Alleghany20North Rowan 72% · at North Rowan
Fourth Round
1Corvian Community275Community School of Davidson20Corvian Community 69% · at Corvian Community
2Starmount273North Rowan20Starmount 70% · at Starmount
Regional Final
1Corvian Community252Starmount21Corvian Community 62% · at Corvian Community
State Championship
Corvian Community19Tarboro29Tarboro 76% · neutral site
Every 2A team's projection — 46 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corvian Community | 8.7-1.3 | 100% | 1.1 | 15.0% |
| Tarboro | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 1.2 | 44.2% |
| Holmes | 7.9-1.1 | 100% | 2.0 | 10.8% |
| Starmount | 8.6-1.4 | 100% | 1.9 | 2.5% |
| Warren County | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.8 | 14.2% |
| North Rowan | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 3.3 | 3.3% |
| Murphy | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 4.4 | 0.0% |
| Community School of Davidson | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.6 | 5.8% |
| Alleghany | 6.7-3.3 | 100% | 6.1 | 0.8% |
| Christ the King | 7.3-2.7 | 100% | 7.2 | 1.7% |
| Manteo | 6.7-3.3 | 100% | 5.3 | 0.0% |
| Lakewood | 6.4-3.6 | 100% | 5.3 | 0.0% |
| East Bladen | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Cherokee | 6.2-3.8 | 100% | 8.8 | 0.0% |
| North Duplin Jr Sr | 6.3-2.7 | 100% | 6.7 | 0.0% |
| Southside | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 6.9 | 0.0% |
| East Wilkes | 5.5-4.5 | 100% | 9.6 | 1.7% |
| Mitchell | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 9.4 | 0.0% |
| Cherryville | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Mountain Island Charter | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.0% |
| Gates County | 4.6-5.4 | 100% | 9.5 | 0.0% |
| Camden County | 4.6-5.4 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.0% |
| South Stokes | 5.4-4.6 | 100% | 13.2 | 0.0% |
| West Columbus | 3.6-5.4 | 100% | 11.4 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Bertie | 2.6-7.4 | 100% | 12.8 | 0.0% |
| Albemarle | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Hobbton | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 14.9 | 0.0% |
| Swain County | 2.7-7.3 | 100% | 15.4 | 0.0% |
| Rosewood | 3.1-6.9 | 100% | 15.9 | 0.0% |
| East Carteret | 3.7-6.3 | 100% | 15.4 | 0.0% |
| Bishop McGuinness | 3.9-6.1 | 100% | 16.2 | 0.0% |
| Avery County | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 16.6 | 0.0% |
| Perquimans County | 2.5-7.5 | 100% | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| South Stanly | 2.7-7.3 | 100% | 17.4 | 0.0% |
| Union | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 18.1 | 0.0% |
| Langtree Charter Academy | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.1 | 0.0% |
| Lejeune | 2.9-6.1 | 100% | 18.6 | 0.0% |
| Pamlico County | 2.6-7.4 | 100% | 19.1 | 0.0% |
| Northampton County | 2.2-7.8 | 100% | 19.4 | 0.0% |
| Bradford Preparatory | 2.1-7.9 | 100% | 20.1 | 0.0% |
| Elkin | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| Triangle Math and Science Academy | 2.0-6.0 | 100% | 21.9 | 0.0% |
| Hayesville | 1.4-7.6 | 100% | 21.4 | 0.0% |
| American Leadership Academy - Johnston | 1.1-7.9 | 100% | 22.8 | 0.0% |
| Highland Tech | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
1A
Projected champion: Northside · wins the title in 59% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 26 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Projected bracket
26 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-3
8KIPP Pride199Washington County29Washington County 74% · at KIPP Pride
4Rocky Mount Preparatory4713Jones12Rocky Mount Preparatory 98% · at Rocky Mount Preparatory
5North East Carolina Prep3912Weldon STEM15North East Carolina Prep 94% · at North East Carolina Prep
7Columbia2110Bear Grass Charter25Bear Grass Charter 63% · at Columbia
6Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy4611Mattamuskeet12Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 98% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy
Second Round
1Northside479Washington County12Northside 98% · at Northside
4Rocky Mount Preparatory265North East Carolina Prep21Rocky Mount Preparatory 64% · at Rocky Mount Preparatory
2Hobgood Charter3210Bear Grass Charter18Hobgood Charter 82% · at Hobgood Charter
3North Edgecombe236Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy22North Edgecombe 54% · at North Edgecombe
Third Round
1Northside474Rocky Mount Preparatory12Northside 98% · at Northside
2Hobgood Charter213North Edgecombe24North Edgecombe 59% · at Hobgood Charter
Regional Final
1Northside463North Edgecombe12Northside 98% · at Northside
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-3
8Rosman389Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy15Rosman 93% · at Rosman
4Sallie B Howard4113North Stokes14Sallie B Howard 95% · at Sallie B Howard
5Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad4112College Prep and Leadership Academy14Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 95% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad
7East Columbus Junior-Senior2110Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy25Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 61% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior
6South Davidson Middle and3611Andrews16South Davidson Middle and 91% · at South Davidson Middle and
Second Round
1Chatham Central288Rosman20Chatham Central 71% · at Chatham Central
4Sallie B Howard215Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad26Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 64% · at Sallie B Howard
2Wilson Preparatory Academy4410Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy13Wilson Preparatory Academy 97% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
3Robbinsville426South Davidson Middle and14Robbinsville 96% · at Robbinsville
Third Round
1Chatham Central265Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad21Chatham Central 64% · at Chatham Central
2Wilson Preparatory Academy233Robbinsville22Wilson Preparatory Academy 54% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
Regional Final
1Chatham Central152Wilson Preparatory Academy39Wilson Preparatory Academy 93% · at Chatham Central
State Championship
Northside24Wilson Preparatory Academy21Northside 57% · neutral site
Every 1A team's projection — 26 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 59.2% |
| Chatham Central | 9.5-0.5 | 100% | 1.1 | 0.0% |
| Wilson Preparatory Academy | 5.9-4.1 | 100% | 2.0 | 35.0% |
| Hobgood Charter | 7.8-2.2 | 100% | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| Robbinsville | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 3.7 | 4.2% |
| Sallie B Howard | 5.7-3.3 | 100% | 3.9 | 0.8% |
| North Edgecombe | 5.7-4.3 | 100% | 3.2 | 0.0% |
| Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 5.1 | 0.0% |
| South Davidson Middle and | 6.3-3.6 | 100% | 5.6 | 0.0% |
| Rocky Mount Preparatory | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 4.6 | 0.8% |
| East Columbus Junior-Senior | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 6.8 | 0.0% |
| North East Carolina Prep | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 6.8 | 0.0% |
| Rosman | 4.4-5.6 | 100% | 7.9 | 0.0% |
| Columbia | 4.2-5.8 | 100% | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| KIPP Pride | 3.2-6.8 | 100% | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| Washington County | 2.4-7.7 | 100% | 8.3 | 0.0% |
| Bear Grass Charter | 2.8-7.2 | 100% | 8.9 | 0.0% |
| Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 9.1 | 0.0% |
| Mattamuskeet | 0.2-7.8 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.0% |
| Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy | 1.0-8.0 | 100% | 11.2 | 0.0% |
| Andrews | 0.6-8.4 | 100% | 10.9 | 0.0% |
| College Prep and Leadership Academy | 0.7-8.3 | 100% | 11.3 | 0.0% |
| North Stokes | 0.4-9.6 | 100% | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Weldon STEM | 0.1-8.9 | 100% | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Jones | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 12.5 | 0.0% |