Work in progress. This report is in active development.
Ratings and projections will change as the system is refined, and some
sections are not yet complete.
Ratings basis: 4454 2026 results, seeded with 2025Home field: +1.2 ptsGenerated October 25, 2026
Programs That Ended Their Season
First Flight (Kill Devil Hills) stopped on September 18 at 0-4: not enough players to continue the varsity season safely. The Outer Banks Voice
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy (Mooresboro) stopped on September 23 at 1-3: a large number of serious injuries and too few players remaining. WBTV
West Bladen (Bladenboro) stopped on September 24 at 0-5: not enough healthy players to take the field safely. WITN
Under NCHSAA rules, a school that stops mid-season forfeits each conference game it has left, and those count as wins for the opponents. Its other remaining games are no contest and count for no one.
Week 11 Projections
200 games. Sorted with the closest matchups first.
Thursday, October 29 — 4 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
Christ School at Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy]conf
Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy]24–21
59%
Northeast Guilford at Eastern Guilfordconf
Northeast Guilford37–16
91%
Randleman at T Wingate Andrewsconf
T Wingate Andrews41–14
96%
Page at Western Guilfordconf
Page51–10
97%
Friday, October 30 — 196 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
Perquimans County at Bertieconf
Perquimans County22–22
50%
Charlotte Latin at Charlotte Christianconf
Charlotte Latin22–22
51%
Richmond at Pinecrestconf
Pinecrest22–22
51%
Kings Mountain at Crestconf
Crest22–22
51%
Ledford at Lexingtonconf
Ledford23–22
53%
Gray's Creek at Terry Sanfordconf
Terry Sanford23–22
53%
Hertford County at Martin Countyconf
Hertford County23–22
53%
Cox Mill at Phillip O Berry Academy of Technologyconf
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology23–22
53%
Rocky Mount Preparatory at North East Carolina Prep
Rocky Mount Preparatory23–22
54%
North Forsyth Magnet at Atkinsconf
Atkins23–22
54%
Southeast Alamance at Eastern Alamanceconf
Southeast Alamance23–22
54%
South Rowan at Carsonconf
Carson23–22
54%
Hayesville at Andrewsconf
Andrews23–22
54%
South Wake Christian Athletics at GRACE Christian
South Wake Christian Athletics23–22
55%
Albemarle at South Stanlyconf
South Stanly23–22
55%
Northwood at West Carteret
West Carteret23–22
55%
North Pitt at Washingtonconf
Washington23–21
56%
Mount Zion Christian Academy at Greenville Hurricanes (SC)
Mount Zion Christian Academy24–21
56%
Columbia at Bear Grass Charterconf
Bear Grass Charter24–21
56%
East Wilkes at Wilkes Centralconf
East Wilkes24–21
57%
Louisburg Magnet at Wake Preparatory Academyconf
Wake Preparatory Academy24–21
57%
Trinity Christian at Harrells Christian Academyconf
Trinity Christian24–21
59%
Wake Christian Academy at Arendell Parrott Academyconf
Wake Christian Academy24–21
59%
Bunn at Roanoke Rapidsconf
Bunn25–21
60%
Hobbton at North Duplin Jr Srconf
Hobbton25–21
60%
Chambers at Mallard Creekconf
Chambers25–21
61%
Jack Britt at Hoke Countyconf
Hoke County25–21
63%
Chatham Central at South Davidson Middle andconf
Chatham Central25–21
63%
Clayton at Clevelandconf
Cleveland25–21
63%
James Kenan at Wallace-Rose Hillconf
James Kenan26–21
64%
Newton-Conover at Maidenconf
Maiden26–21
64%
West Wilkes at North Wilkesconf
West Wilkes26–21
64%
Bartlett Yancey at Carverconf
Carver26–21
64%
West Columbus at Unionconf
West Columbus26–21
64%
East Rowan at Concordconf
East Rowan26–20
64%
Lumberton at Purnell Swettconf
Purnell Swett26–20
65%
Sallie B Howard at Washington Countyconf
Sallie B Howard26–20
65%
College Prep and Leadership Academy at North Stokesconf
College Prep and Leadership Academy26–20
66%
R J Reynolds at Northwest Guilfordconf
R J Reynolds26–20
66%
Providence at Ardrey Kellconf
Ardrey Kell26–20
67%
Charles B Aycock at Southern Wayneconf
Charles B Aycock26–20
67%
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad at South Stokesconf
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad26–20
67%
Overhills at Pine Forestconf
Overhills26–20
67%
South Johnston at West Johnstonconf
South Johnston27–20
69%
Thomson (GA) at Cross Creek Early Collegeconf
no rating for one side
—
King's Academy (TN) at SouthLake Christian Academy
SouthLake Christian Academy27–20
70%
North Lincoln at Foardconf
North Lincoln27–20
70%
John Paul II Catholic at Cary Christianconf
John Paul II Catholic28–20
71%
Butler at Independenceconf
Butler28–20
72%
East Forsyth at Reaganconf
Reagan28–20
72%
Wakefield at Athens Driveconf
Wakefield28–20
72%
Triton at Harnett Centralconf
Harnett Central28–20
72%
Harding University at Central Cabarrusconf
Central Cabarrus28–20
73%
Fike at Huntconf
Fike28–20
73%
Montgomery Central at Central Davidsonconf
Montgomery Central28–19
74%
New Hanover at Topsailconf
Topsail28–19
74%
Saint Stephens at Wataugaconf
Watauga29–19
74%
Shelby at Burnsconf
Shelby29–19
74%
Porter Ridge at Sun Valleyconf
Sun Valley29–19
75%
South Granville at J. F. Webbconf
South Granville29–19
75%
Farmville Central at Ayden-Griftonconf
Farmville Central29–19
75%
East Carteret at Pamlico Countyconf
East Carteret30–19
77%
R-S Central at East Rutherfordconf
R-S Central30–19
78%
Anson at Parkwoodconf
Parkwood31–19
80%
Scotland at Cape Fearconf
Scotland31–18
80%
KIPP Pride at Northampton County
Northampton County31–18
80%
Ambassador Christian School at Asheville School (Independent)
Asheville School (Independent)31–18
81%
Riverside at Chapel Hillconf
Riverside31–18
81%
South Central at New Bernconf
New Bern32–18
82%
Mount Tabor at Glennconf
Mount Tabor32–18
82%
E E Smith at Westoverconf
Westover32–18
82%
South Columbus at Whitevilleconf
Whiteville32–18
82%
Camden County at Gates Countyconf
Gates County32–18
83%
Panther Creek at Apex Friendshipconf
Apex Friendship32–18
83%
Forbush at North Surryconf
North Surry32–18
83%
West Charlotte at North Mecklenburgconf
West Charlotte32–18
84%
Southwest at Clintonconf
Clinton32–18
84%
Lake Norman at Mooresvilleconf
Lake Norman33–18
85%
Broughton at Leesville Roadconf
Leesville Road33–18
85%
Oak Grove at North Davidsonconf
Oak Grove33–17
86%
Knightdale at East Wakeconf
East Wake33–17
86%
Hickory Grove Christian at Metrolina Christian Academy
Metrolina Christian Academy33–17
86%
Mountain Heritage at Owenconf
Mountain Heritage33–17
86%
Lejeune at Southsideconf
Southside34–17
86%
North Buncombe at Erwinconf
Erwin34–17
87%
Havelock at Northsideconf
Northside34–17
87%
Providence Grove at Thomasvilleconf
Thomasville34–17
87%
Cherokee at Robbinsvilleconf
Robbinsville34–17
87%
West Stanly at Mount Pleasantconf
Mount Pleasant34–17
88%
North Brunswick at Laneyconf
Laney35–17
88%
Richlands at Swansboroconf
Swansboro35–17
89%
East Surry at Mount Airyconf
Mount Airy35–17
89%
Mountain Island Charter at North Rowan
North Rowan35–17
89%
Enka at Ashevilleconf
Asheville36–17
90%
Monroe at Forest Hillsconf
Monroe36–16
90%
East Columbus Junior-Senior at Lakewoodconf
Lakewood36–16
91%
Piedmont at Charlotte Catholicconf
Charlotte Catholic37–16
92%
Eastern Wayne at West Cravenconf
West Craven37–16
92%
Ravenscroft at North Raleigh Christian Academyconf
North Raleigh Christian Academy37–16
92%
Huss at Ashbrookconf
Ashbrook38–16
92%
Morehead at Walkertownconf
Walkertown38–16
93%
Northern Nash at Rocky Mountconf
Northern Nash39–15
93%
Willow Spring at Jordanconf
Jordan39–15
94%
West Iredell at Bunker Hillconf
West Iredell39–15
94%
Southern Alamance at Western Alamanceconf
Southern Alamance39–15
94%
Swain County at Murphyconf
Murphy40–15
95%
Garinger at West Mecklenburgconf
West Mecklenburg40–15
95%
Kinston at Tarboroconf
Tarboro41–15
95%
Pasquotank County at Northeasternconf
Northeastern41–14
95%
Ballantyne Ridge at Rocky Riverconf
Ballantyne Ridge41–14
95%
Ragsdale at Southwest Guilfordconf
Ragsdale41–14
95%
Southeast Guilford at Northern Guilfordconf
Northern Guilford41–14
95%
Smoky Mountain at North Hendersonconf
Smoky Mountain41–14
95%
Wake Forest at Heritageconf
Wake Forest41–14
95%
Princeton at Rosewoodconf
Princeton41–14
95%
Hickory Ridge at Olympicconf
Hickory Ridge41–14
95%
Brevard at Pisgahconf
Pisgah41–14
96%
Jay M Robinson at Northwest Cabarrusconf
Jay M Robinson41–14
96%
South Iredell at Davie Countyconf
Davie County41–14
96%
Southern Lee at Lee Countyconf
Lee County41–14
96%
West Henderson at Franklinconf
Franklin41–14
96%
Wayne Preparatory Academy at North Wake Saints
North Wake Saints41–14
96%
Southeast Raleigh at South Garnerconf
Southeast Raleigh41–14
96%
Seventy-First at South Viewconf
Seventy-First42–14
96%
Person at Williamsconf
Williams42–14
96%
South Mecklenburg at Myers Parkconf
Myers Park42–14
96%
D H Conley at Junius H Roseconf
Junius H Rose42–14
96%
Mitchell at Avery Countyconf
Mitchell42–14
96%
West Cabarrus at A L Brownconf
A L Brown42–14
96%
Alexander Central at South Caldwellconf
Alexander Central42–14
96%
North Stanly at Union Academyconf
North Stanly42–14
96%
Fuquay-Varina at Garnerconf
Garner42–14
96%
Holly Springs at Middle Creekconf
Middle Creek42–14
96%
Christ the King at Langtree Charter Academyconf
Christ the King42–14
96%
Lincoln Charter at Lake Norman Charterconf
Lake Norman Charter42–14
96%
Green Level at Green Hopeconf
Green Hope42–14
96%
Trinity at Wheatmoreconf
Wheatmore43–14
96%
Northern at Hillsideconf
Hillside43–14
96%
East Davidson at West Davidsonconf
West Davidson43–14
96%
SouthWest Edgecombe at North Johnstonconf
SouthWest Edgecombe43–14
97%
Forestview at North Gastonconf
Forestview43–14
97%
Weldon STEM at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academyconf
Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy43–13
97%
Pender at Heide Traskconf
Pender43–13
97%
Dixon at Croatanconf
Croatan44–13
97%
Freedom at McDowellconf
Freedom44–13
97%
Roberson at Reynoldsconf
Roberson44–13
97%
North Edgecombe at Wilson Preparatory Academyconf
Wilson Preparatory Academy44–13
97%
Manteo at Holmesconf
Holmes44–13
97%
Chase at Pattonconf
Chase44–13
97%
Cary at Cardinal Gibbonsconf
Cardinal Gibbons51–10
97%
Saint Pauls at Douglas Byrdconf
Saint Pauls50–11
97%
Surry Central at West Stokesconf
West Stokes55–9
97%
Hough at Hopewellconf
Hough51–10
97%
Southwestern Randolph at North Mooreconf
Southwestern Randolph46–12
97%
West Rowan at Salisburyconf
West Rowan44–13
97%
Reidsville at McMichaelconf
Reidsville57–8
97%
Seaforth at Carrboroconf
Seaforth52–10
97%
East Mecklenburg at Palisadesconf
Palisades45–13
97%
Triangle Math and Science Academy at Wayne Christian
Wayne Christian52–10
97%
Statesville at North Iredellconf
Statesville49–11
97%
Jordan-Matthews at Eastern Randolphconf
Eastern Randolph51–10
97%
Nash Central at American Leadership Academy - Johnstonconf
Nash Central44–13
97%
Corinth Holders at Millbrookconf
Millbrook49–11
97%
Providence Day at Charlotte Country Day Schoolconf
Providence Day46–12
97%
Covenant Day at High Point Christian Academyconf
High Point Christian Academy47–12
97%
Bradford Preparatory at Corvian Communityconf
Corvian Community51–10
97%
Cedar Ridge at Orangeconf
Orange50–11
97%
Hibriten at Cummings
Hibriten47–12
97%
Hobgood Charter at Mattamuskeetconf
Hobgood Charter46–12
97%
Pine Lake Preparatory at Community School of Davidsonconf
Community School of Davidson45–13
97%
Marvin Ridge at Cuthbertsonconf
Marvin Ridge47–12
97%
Ashley at Hoggardconf
Hoggard45–13
97%
Red Springs at Fairmontconf
Fairmont45–13
97%
Rolesville at Enloeconf
Rolesville46–12
97%
Ben L. Smith at Grimsleyconf
Grimsley58–7
97%
Goldsboro at Midwayconf
Midway56–9
97%
Beddingfield at Greene Centralconf
Greene Central51–10
97%
Union Pines at Western Harnettconf
Union Pines49–11
97%
Vance County at Franklintonconf
Franklinton45–13
97%
West Forsyth at Parklandconf
West Forsyth51–10
97%
Southern School of Energy and Sustainability at East Chapel Hillconf
Southern School of Energy and Sustainability58–8
97%
Warren County at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academyconf
Title races and the RPI bubble → the conference title games still to play and the teams fighting for the last playoff spots, updated each week until the regular season ends.
Scoring tables are as played. Adjusted tables account for the opponent, so ten points conceded to a strong offense outranks a shutout of a weak one — the two disagree on purpose.
The official NCHSAA RPI standings, as published by the association on October 24, 2026 (nchsaa.org, powered by MaxPreps): 0.4 win percentage, 0.4 opponents' win percentage, 0.2 opponents' opponents'. Records are NCHSAA's, which can differ from ours where the association has ruled on a forfeit.
8A — 32 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Hough
9-0-0
0.78685
132.6
27.6
2
Chambers
9-0-0
0.74869
119.6
22.0
3
Millbrook
8-0-1
0.72841
124.5
23.2
4
Apex Friendship
9-0-0
0.67728
98.1
6.2
5
Hoggard
8-1-0
0.67092
116.3
17.6
6
West Forsyth
7-2-0
0.66922
117.0
28.4
7
Mallard Creek
7-2-0
0.66814
115.3
31.4
8
Rolesville
6-2-1
0.63429
118.8
27.9
9
Myers Park
6-3-0
0.63256
105.2
28.3
10
Pinecrest
6-3-0
0.62006
101.5
22.9
11
West Charlotte
5-4-0
0.61228
99.2
34.7
12
Green Hope
7-2-0
0.60972
90.3
3.4
13
Palisades
7-2-0
0.60725
104.7
17.3
14
Hoke County
5-4-0
0.57639
90.5
24.3
15
Jordan
6-3-0
0.57577
95.7
11.9
16
Ardrey Kell
6-3-0
0.56591
96.2
14.9
17
Panther Creek
6-3-0
0.56579
86.6
13.0
18
Leesville Road
5-4-0
0.54797
98.7
23.4
19
Providence
5-4-0
0.54251
91.8
18.8
20
Laney
4-5-0
0.54184
92.3
24.7
21
Broughton
5-4-0
0.52082
86.0
19.4
22
South Mecklenburg
4-5-0
0.47760
80.7
14.3
23
Wakefield
3-6-0
0.47028
78.3
26.3
24
Willow Spring
3-6-0
0.46002
75.6
15.5
25
Enloe
4-5-0
0.43558
81.7
15.9
26
Apex
3-7-0
0.41298
80.0
9.6
27
East Mecklenburg
4-5-0
0.40466
73.4
6.1
28
Northwest Guilford
1-8-0
0.39176
73.2
28.1
29
Athens Drive
2-7-0
0.38190
69.8
20.1
30
Corinth Holders
2-7-0
0.38188
81.1
20.7
31
Garinger
2-7-0
0.35735
50.4
9.8
32
Green Level
1-8-0
0.32060
64.5
12.1
7A — 60 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Grimsley
9-0-0
0.77425
125.4
23.5
2
Weddington
10-0-0
0.76401
127.2
24.5
3
Reagan
8-1-0
0.71803
117.1
23.6
4
Lake Norman
9-0-0
0.70497
119.1
15.4
5
Cleveland
8-1-0
0.69480
118.6
24.8
6
Garner
7-2-0
0.69453
114.6
30.8
7
Clayton
8-1-0
0.68172
115.4
18.2
8
Marvin Ridge
8-1-0
0.67640
107.4
19.8
9
A L Brown
9-0-0
0.66790
106.0
8.8
10
New Bern
6-3-0
0.65765
99.7
24.1
11
Cardinal Gibbons
6-3-0
0.64106
113.7
27.3
12
Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
6-2-0
0.63910
104.1
11.2
13
Wake Forest
7-2-0
0.63073
107.9
14.8
14
Page
8-1-0
0.62785
107.9
8.2
15
Cape Fear
8-1-0
0.62685
95.8
4.5
16
D H Conley
6-3-0
0.62326
89.9
16.8
17
Southeast Raleigh
6-3-0
0.61306
112.0
25.1
18
East Forsyth
6-3-0
0.60205
110.7
21.5
19
Hickory Ridge
7-2-0
0.59451
105.2
8.8
20
Davie County
5-4-0
0.59321
97.4
25.3
21
Mooresville
5-4-0
0.57719
104.8
26.2
22
Ashley
6-3-0
0.56438
84.4
14.6
23
Hillside
6-3-0
0.55652
80.7
4.0
24
West Cabarrus
5-4-0
0.54753
81.4
16.1
25
Butler
4-5-0
0.54521
93.8
30.4
26
Holly Springs
5-4-0
0.53636
85.5
13.9
27
South Central
4-5-0
0.53528
88.8
19.1
28
Heritage
5-4-0
0.52697
83.1
13.9
29
Richmond
4-5-0
0.51413
102.2
26.5
30
Fuquay-Varina
4-5-0
0.50934
89.6
23.4
31
Jack Britt
4-5-0
0.50595
87.5
22.3
32
North Brunswick
5-4-0
0.50181
77.6
10.2
33
Topsail
3-6-0
0.48571
81.1
21.3
34
Porter Ridge
3-6-0
0.48165
84.8
26.1
35
Hopewell
5-4-0
0.47517
81.8
10.3
36
R J Reynolds
4-5-0
0.46058
79.5
11.5
37
Pine Forest
3-6-0
0.45324
75.4
19.6
38
Sanderson
4-5-0
0.45049
80.5
8.5
39
Ballantyne Ridge
3-6-0
0.43667
75.5
13.2
40
South Garner
3-6-0
0.43191
86.5
16.6
41
East Wake
3-6-0
0.43139
71.2
11.1
42
New Hanover
2-7-0
0.43120
74.0
19.3
43
Overhills
3-6-0
0.42577
81.9
15.2
44
Independence
1-8-0
0.42121
85.5
30.6
45
Parkland
3-6-0
0.40629
66.2
5.7
46
Purnell Swett
3-6-0
0.40218
67.5
1.7
47
South Iredell
2-7-0
0.40213
74.1
20.6
48
North Mecklenburg
3-6-0
0.39690
85.4
15.7
49
Southwest Guilford
2-7-0
0.38766
60.4
11.1
50
Cary
3-6-0
0.37925
65.8
8.5
51
Riverside
2-7-0
0.37147
57.2
5.0
52
Lumberton
1-8-0
0.36355
63.7
11.8
53
Chapel Hill
2-7-0
0.36056
44.6
-2.2
54
Cox Mill
2-7-0
0.35802
67.1
12.2
55
Cuthbertson
1-8-0
0.35106
67.2
19.6
56
West Mecklenburg
1-8-0
0.34868
72.4
17.2
57
McDowell
1-8-0
0.33526
53.7
2.3
58
Smithfield-Selma
0-10-0
0.32623
57.2
22.8
59
Knightdale
0-9-0
0.28510
58.2
11.3
60
Rocky River
0-9-0
0.24787
50.8
9.8
6A — 58 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Junius H Rose
9-0-0
0.77805
114.5
24.1
2
Asheville
8-1-0
0.71756
99.5
15.5
3
Jacksonville
6-2-0
0.70682
113.3
22.0
4
Asheboro
8-1-0
0.69987
92.2
10.8
5
Union Pines
8-1-0
0.68391
98.9
7.5
6
Northern Nash
7-2-0
0.68355
111.1
17.1
7
Williams
5-2-0
0.67406
91.0
16.3
8
Roberson
7-2-0
0.66916
108.3
11.8
9
Scotland
8-1-0
0.66891
107.8
12.6
10
Southern Alamance
7-2-0
0.66856
99.1
12.4
11
Middle Creek
7-2-0
0.66250
111.0
20.4
12
Seventy-First
8-1-0
0.65000
104.6
8.4
13
Kings Mountain
7-2-0
0.62854
108.2
12.8
14
Triton
8-1-0
0.61759
83.9
-0.5
15
Harnett Central
8-1-0
0.61043
90.4
-2.6
16
Franklinton
7-2-0
0.59419
90.2
1.4
17
Freedom
7-2-0
0.58460
84.1
-0.1
18
Dudley
6-4-0
0.57943
94.2
18.8
19
Swansboro
6-3-0
0.57763
76.8
0.6
20
Alexander Central
7-2-0
0.57699
86.4
5.6
21
Mount Tabor
5-4-0
0.57616
95.4
22.3
22
Northern Guilford
5-4-0
0.56371
89.6
18.7
23
Charlotte Catholic
5-4-0
0.54700
94.0
23.5
24
Sun Valley
4-5-0
0.53995
92.5
28.1
25
Ashbrook
4-5-0
0.53390
95.3
17.8
26
Glenn
6-3-0
0.53099
82.4
5.6
27
Westover
5-4-0
0.52654
85.2
9.3
28
South Johnston
4-5-0
0.49851
74.0
5.3
29
Watauga
4-5-0
0.49355
82.8
7.1
30
Felton Grove
4-5-0
0.49111
68.8
6.5
31
Reynolds
3-6-0
0.48493
77.7
11.4
32
Eastern Guilford
3-5-0
0.48468
75.6
9.6
33
Ragsdale
4-5-0
0.48167
85.1
12.1
34
Gray's Creek
5-4-0
0.47963
75.0
6.1
35
Statesville
3-6-0
0.46670
84.4
20.3
36
Northern
5-4-0
0.45997
54.7
-11.6
37
Olympic
4-5-0
0.45000
80.1
11.5
38
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
4-5-0
0.43831
67.1
11.4
39
Terry Sanford
3-6-0
0.43426
74.9
14.6
40
White Oak
2-6-0
0.43309
66.2
14.0
41
Saint Stephens
3-6-0
0.42260
75.6
3.0
42
Piedmont
3-6-0
0.42222
75.9
13.2
43
South Caldwell
3-6-0
0.42212
59.8
6.5
44
West Johnston
3-6-0
0.42083
66.9
7.2
45
Central Cabarrus
2-7-0
0.41145
74.0
13.1
46
Western Harnett
4-5-0
0.40901
54.1
-9.9
47
West Brunswick
2-8-0
0.40501
71.9
11.9
48
South View
3-6-0
0.40000
78.3
9.8
49
Lee County
1-8-0
0.39673
66.0
12.4
50
Western Guilford
3-6-0
0.39482
56.1
4.4
51
Southeast Guilford
2-7-0
0.37992
66.8
7.5
52
Harding University
2-7-0
0.37522
67.3
12.8
53
Vance County
1-8-0
0.36979
57.5
13.9
54
E E Smith
2-7-0
0.36453
74.2
7.3
55
North Iredell
0-9-0
0.32102
40.9
16.7
56
Southern Lee
0-9-0
0.31755
42.6
11.6
57
Ben L. Smith
1-8-0
0.29659
52.0
5.3
58
East Chapel Hill
1-7-0
0.26638
30.9
-18.1
5A — 57 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Southeast Alamance
9-0-0
0.73967
98.0
5.9
2
Crest
8-1-0
0.73177
107.6
19.1
3
Northside
9-0-0
0.71734
107.2
10.4
4
Franklin
9-0-0
0.71090
98.2
4.1
5
Jay M Robinson
9-0-0
0.70410
110.3
4.0
6
South Point
9-1-0
0.70356
107.5
17.5
7
Hunt
8-1-0
0.68242
93.6
11.4
8
West Rowan
7-2-0
0.67517
91.2
10.2
9
East Lincoln
9-1-0
0.67198
104.4
11.5
10
Croatan
8-1-0
0.66990
93.5
3.9
11
Forest Hills
8-1-0
0.65444
87.8
2.4
12
Monroe
7-2-0
0.65250
106.0
16.0
13
Seaforth
8-1-0
0.65171
84.4
-10.3
14
Fike
8-1-0
0.64831
102.2
2.6
15
Enka
8-1-0
0.64153
83.5
-0.6
16
Hickory
6-3-0
0.62529
107.6
14.8
17
Oak Grove
7-2-0
0.62081
106.7
8.5
18
Eastern Alamance
6-2-0
0.61411
95.8
8.4
19
Northeast Guilford
6-3-0
0.61005
94.8
10.6
20
Northwest Cabarrus
7-2-0
0.60497
85.0
4.4
21
Havelock
5-4-0
0.59017
93.5
15.4
22
North Davidson
7-2-0
0.58602
91.7
3.2
23
Smoky Mountain
7-2-0
0.58411
92.6
-2.3
24
Rocky Mount
6-3-0
0.57892
89.3
6.5
25
Orange
5-4-0
0.53538
65.9
-3.9
26
West Henderson
5-4-0
0.53261
74.8
3.5
27
Saint Pauls
6-3-0
0.52899
85.5
2.4
28
Western Alamance
5-4-0
0.52389
76.6
8.1
29
Parkwood
4-5-0
0.50678
80.8
14.9
30
Southern Nash
4-6-0
0.50181
75.5
15.1
31
Carson
4-5-0
0.50070
72.2
6.0
32
South Granville
5-4-0
0.49634
69.0
-7.6
33
Montgomery Central
4-5-0
0.48912
74.6
8.5
34
Erwin
3-6-0
0.48828
77.8
12.3
35
Currituck County
3-6-0
0.47483
66.2
1.1
36
J. F. Webb
4-5-0
0.47402
59.3
-12.8
37
North Buncombe
4-5-0
0.46986
64.2
-0.3
38
Rockingham County
4-6-0
0.46834
70.1
-2.9
39
West Carteret
3-6-0
0.46383
65.5
11.3
40
East Rowan
3-6-0
0.44660
64.7
4.6
41
Southern Wayne
3-6-0
0.44274
59.7
5.9
42
North Henderson
2-7-0
0.43934
67.8
7.5
43
South Brunswick
4-5-0
0.43749
61.8
-7.0
44
Huss
3-6-0
0.42459
76.9
10.1
45
Person
2-7-0
0.42241
66.5
11.1
46
Charles B Aycock
2-7-0
0.41974
66.1
9.2
47
North Lincoln
2-7-0
0.41869
71.4
15.8
48
Forestview
1-8-0
0.40736
66.0
19.9
49
Richlands
2-7-0
0.40272
61.5
8.6
50
Concord
1-8-0
0.38340
59.1
9.4
51
Atkins
1-8-0
0.34998
49.1
10.5
52
North Forsyth Magnet
1-8-0
0.34788
49.0
10.2
53
Dixon
2-7-0
0.34563
65.4
1.0
54
North Gaston
0-9-0
0.30952
36.8
15.2
55
Cedar Ridge
1-6-0
0.27780
21.3
-19.8
56
Douglas Byrd
0-9-0
0.25861
36.9
4.3
57
Southern Guilford
0-9-0
0.24325
32.5
7.1
4A — 55 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
West Iredell
9-0-0
0.69681
97.2
6.8
2
Tuscola
8-1-0
0.68696
96.9
3.7
3
East Duplin
8-1-0
0.68635
89.1
5.7
4
Hibriten
9-0-0
0.68150
98.0
-6.9
5
T Wingate Andrews
8-1-0
0.63076
93.7
0.4
6
Burns
7-2-0
0.62976
91.7
2.4
7
Clinton
6-3-0
0.62827
77.1
-2.7
8
West Craven
7-2-0
0.61006
94.2
3.0
9
Reidsville
6-3-0
0.60139
95.8
3.4
10
SouthWest Edgecombe
6-3-0
0.59939
82.6
6.9
11
West Stokes
6-3-0
0.59927
87.5
4.4
12
Mount Pleasant
6-3-0
0.59882
81.6
10.9
13
Lake Norman Charter
6-3-0
0.58138
68.6
-3.0
14
Stuart W Cramer
7-2-0
0.57640
93.8
-5.6
15
Pisgah
5-4-0
0.56703
78.2
7.1
16
Wilkes Central
7-2-0
0.56323
78.8
-18.4
17
R-S Central
6-3-0
0.56104
77.2
-3.1
18
West Stanly
4-5-0
0.54126
67.2
9.2
19
Southwestern Randolph
6-3-0
0.53228
69.5
-16.5
20
South Rowan
5-4-0
0.52864
71.9
-2.3
21
Morehead
6-3-0
0.52821
63.0
-9.3
22
East Burke
4-5-0
0.51727
69.0
1.5
23
Fairmont
4-5-0
0.50332
67.0
2.7
24
Maiden
4-5-0
0.50203
80.7
15.0
25
Newton-Conover
4-5-0
0.50076
77.3
11.7
26
Bunker Hill
5-4-0
0.49002
74.9
6.5
27
Bunn
5-4-0
0.48952
67.2
-9.4
28
Nash Central
3-6-0
0.48927
65.3
8.1
29
Roanoke Rapids
4-5-0
0.48824
62.9
-9.7
30
Randleman
4-5-0
0.48805
70.2
3.4
31
Salisbury
3-6-0
0.48395
59.7
11.9
32
Washington
3-6-0
0.48206
71.0
8.3
33
East Gaston
5-4-0
0.47640
58.2
-5.6
34
North Surry
4-5-0
0.47491
66.1
-3.7
35
Anson
4-5-0
0.46281
71.0
-1.0
36
Ledford
3-6-0
0.46188
66.9
8.2
37
North Pitt
4-5-0
0.45260
70.2
2.9
38
Eastern Wayne
5-3-0
0.45081
76.0
-14.7
39
Bandys
3-6-0
0.44771
76.1
13.7
40
Southwest
4-5-0
0.44395
65.1
-3.6
41
Foard
2-7-0
0.42703
63.7
14.1
42
Forbush
4-5-0
0.42583
54.6
-11.1
43
Jordan-Matthews
4-5-0
0.41081
37.4
-22.1
44
Central Davidson
3-6-0
0.39678
65.6
0.8
45
Lincoln Charter
2-7-0
0.39206
43.0
-5.7
46
Lexington
2-7-0
0.38811
65.1
2.7
47
Cummings
1-8-0
0.38540
57.8
8.8
48
Carver
2-7-0
0.34350
38.5
-10.8
49
Brevard
1-8-0
0.34129
54.9
7.7
50
East Henderson
1-8-0
0.33852
49.2
1.0
51
North Johnston
2-7-0
0.33441
53.5
-2.5
52
Ashe County
1-8-0
0.32844
41.1
-3.0
53
Red Springs
2-7-0
0.32731
33.9
-2.5
54
Carrboro
1-8-0
0.27205
28.9
-20.5
55
North Lenoir
0-10-0
0.24880
41.6
-0.0
3A — 53 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Northeastern
8-1-0
0.70440
93.2
4.4
2
Whiteville
8-0-0
0.70024
79.8
-11.5
3
North Stanly
9-0-0
0.69361
90.6
-8.1
4
Midway
7-1-0
0.69185
82.8
2.8
5
Shelby
8-1-0
0.67976
101.1
2.4
6
Hendersonville
9-0-0
0.67560
84.5
-7.5
7
James Kenan
7-1-0
0.64866
90.4
-3.9
8
Eastern Randolph
6-3-0
0.62968
87.3
4.0
9
Walkertown
8-1-0
0.61491
82.0
-10.2
10
Hertford County
6-3-0
0.60703
82.6
3.3
11
Martin County
6-3-0
0.60381
80.7
-0.8
12
Thomasville
8-1-0
0.59442
84.2
-14.1
13
Pasquotank County
6-3-0
0.58794
70.8
-1.9
14
Mount Airy
6-3-0
0.58677
83.3
11.3
15
Chase
7-2-0
0.58634
68.5
-11.2
16
Lincolnton
6-3-0
0.56621
92.3
-0.3
17
Wallace-Rose Hill
5-3-0
0.56269
85.0
-1.4
18
Union Academy
7-2-0
0.55842
63.8
-16.4
19
Providence Grove
6-3-0
0.55303
70.3
-11.8
20
Northwood
5-4-0
0.54823
64.9
-3.8
21
Mountain Heritage
6-3-0
0.54671
74.7
-5.0
22
West Wilkes
6-3-0
0.54289
69.3
-8.8
23
Farmville Central
5-4-0
0.54242
69.2
7.9
24
Louisburg Magnet
7-2-0
0.53739
62.4
-18.1
25
South Columbus
5-3-0
0.52508
68.7
-4.2
26
West Davidson
6-3-0
0.52364
70.1
-8.3
27
Princeton
4-5-0
0.50269
80.8
-0.3
28
Owen
5-4-0
0.49459
59.6
-11.3
29
Greene Central
5-4-0
0.49082
79.1
-4.6
30
Wake Preparatory Academy
5-4-0
0.48340
63.7
-14.6
31
East Rutherford
3-6-0
0.48179
66.2
4.3
32
East Surry
4-5-0
0.47618
67.7
-1.7
33
North Wilkes
4-5-0
0.45484
63.9
-10.9
34
Kinston
5-4-0
0.44481
75.5
-8.0
35
Pine Lake Preparatory
4-5-0
0.42134
51.1
-13.3
36
West Lincoln
3-6-0
0.40507
61.3
-4.5
37
Pender
3-6-0
0.40233
68.8
-7.8
38
East Davidson
3-6-0
0.39333
44.1
-11.0
39
Polk County
3-6-0
0.38948
53.9
-11.5
40
Wheatmore
2-7-0
0.38428
54.2
-9.5
41
Ayden-Grifton
2-7-0
0.36570
59.5
4.1
42
North Moore
0-9-0
0.36524
33.6
2.3
43
McMichael
2-7-0
0.35329
24.7
-14.1
44
Heide Trask
2-7-0
0.34625
39.1
-10.8
45
South Lenoir
3-6-0
0.33488
38.3
-16.6
46
Bessemer City
1-8-0
0.33037
36.8
2.5
47
Draughn
0-9-0
0.32602
32.1
2.1
48
Patton
1-8-0
0.32093
37.7
-4.7
49
Trinity
1-8-0
0.31758
28.2
-11.2
50
Bartlett Yancey
1-8-0
0.30692
35.0
-9.2
51
Madison
1-9-0
0.30421
37.2
-8.8
52
Goldsboro
0-8-0
0.27096
19.2
4.1
53
Beddingfield
0-9-0
0.26728
29.8
-3.7
2A — 45 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Corvian Community
8-1-0
0.70022
91.4
4.4
2
Starmount
8-1-0
0.68843
86.5
-2.7
3
Tarboro
8-1-0
0.66501
97.6
1.0
4
Holmes
7-1-0
0.64724
88.0
-8.1
5
Warren County
9-0-0
0.63707
88.0
-19.7
6
Manteo
7-2-0
0.62406
59.1
-16.3
7
Murphy
7-2-0
0.61802
77.2
-4.1
8
North Rowan
7-2-0
0.61733
79.6
-7.3
9
Alleghany
6-3-0
0.60646
74.5
-2.1
10
Community School of Davidson
6-3-0
0.60437
82.5
-0.4
11
Lakewood
6-3-0
0.57520
61.1
-11.2
12
East Bladen
7-3-0
0.56582
62.0
-16.0
13
Cherokee
6-3-0
0.56255
61.5
-6.3
14
Christ the King
6-3-0
0.54689
74.6
-8.6
15
Southside
6-3-0
0.54593
47.0
-22.4
16
Mountain Island Charter
7-2-0
0.54212
64.0
-21.5
17
East Wilkes
5-4-0
0.53422
82.0
-4.6
18
Mitchell
6-3-0
0.52968
74.2
-7.7
19
Cherryville
5-4-0
0.52142
67.9
-2.4
20
North Duplin Jr Sr
5-3-0
0.52089
53.9
-23.8
21
Camden County
4-5-0
0.50166
52.9
-10.7
22
Gates County
4-5-0
0.49990
64.2
-9.0
23
South Stokes
5-4-0
0.45625
44.7
-24.9
24
West Columbus
3-5-0
0.45244
50.2
-12.6
25
Bertie
2-7-0
0.45039
46.6
-0.1
26
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy
Projected champions: 8A Hough · 7A Weddington · 6A Junius H Rose · 5A Jay M Robinson · 4A West Iredell · 3A Shelby · 2A Tarboro · 1A Northside
The RPI bubble: the teams whose chance of making the playoffs is between 15% and 85%, with the last teams safely in and the first teams out on either edge, listed by that chance. In is 85% or better, Out below 15%.
8A bubble — 24 of 32 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
22
South Mecklenburg
4-5-0
100%
In
0.47760
22
0.4738
23
Wakefield
3-6-0
98%
In
0.47028
23
0.4661
24
Willow Spring
3-6-0
98%
In
0.46002
24
0.4497
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
25
East Mecklenburg
4-5-0
2%
Out
0.40466
27
0.4068
26
Enloe
4-5-0
2%
Out
0.43558
25
0.4334
27
Apex
3-7-0
0%
Out
0.41298
26
0.4066
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
7A bubble — 48 of 60 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
Parkland
3-6-0
100%
In
0.40629
45
0.4101
45
Ballantyne Ridge
3-6-0
99%
In
0.43667
39
0.4356
46
South Iredell
2-7-0
98%
In
0.40213
47
0.4000
On the bubble
47
Riverside
2-7-0
73%
Bubble
0.37147
51
0.3902
48
Purnell Swett
3-6-0
57%
Bubble
0.40218
46
0.4020
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
North Mecklenburg
3-6-0
34%
Bubble
0.39690
48
0.3976
50
Lumberton
1-8-0
28%
Bubble
0.36355
52
0.3692
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51
Cox Mill
2-7-0
8%
Out
0.35802
54
0.3693
52
Southwest Guilford
2-7-0
2%
Out
0.38766
49
0.3746
53
Cary
3-6-0
0%
Out
0.37925
50
0.3789
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
6A bubble — 48 of 58 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
42
Piedmont
3-6-0
100%
In
0.42222
42
0.4212
43
Western Harnett
4-5-0
100%
In
0.40901
46
0.4152
44
Saint Stephens
3-6-0
92%
In
0.42260
41
0.4215
On the bubble
45
South View
3-6-0
84%
Bubble
0.40000
48
0.4098
46
West Brunswick
2-8-0
83%
Bubble
0.40501
47
0.4064
47
West Johnston
3-6-0
78%
Bubble
0.42083
44
0.4161
48
Central Cabarrus
2-7-0
72%
Bubble
0.41145
45
0.4171
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Lee County
1-8-0
72%
Bubble
0.39673
49
0.4036
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
50
E E Smith
2-7-0
8%
Out
0.36453
54
0.3704
51
Western Guilford
3-6-0
7%
Out
0.39482
50
0.4006
52
Southeast Guilford
2-7-0
3%
Out
0.37992
51
0.3772
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
5A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
Person
2-7-0
100%
In
0.42241
45
0.4217
45
Huss
3-6-0
98%
In
0.42459
44
0.4157
46
Forestview
1-8-0
98%
In
0.40736
48
0.4159
On the bubble
47
North Lincoln
2-7-0
76%
Bubble
0.41869
47
0.4214
48
Charles B Aycock
2-7-0
72%
Bubble
0.41974
46
0.4209
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Richlands
2-7-0
38%
Bubble
0.40272
49
0.4051
50
Concord
1-8-0
18%
Bubble
0.38340
50
0.3817
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51
Dixon
2-7-0
0%
Out
0.34563
53
0.3600
52
Atkins
1-8-0
0%
Out
0.34998
51
0.3540
53
North Forsyth Magnet
1-8-0
0%
Out
0.34788
52
0.3423
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
4A bubble — 48 of 56 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
45
Cummings
1-8-0
100%
In
0.38540
47
0.3921
46
Lincoln Charter
2-7-0
100%
In
0.39206
45
0.3873
47
Lexington
2-7-0
98%
In
0.38811
46
0.3935
On the bubble
48
Carver
2-7-0
1%
Bubble
0.34350
48
0.3461
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
49
North Johnston
2-7-0
1%
Out
0.33441
51
0.3431
50
East Henderson
1-8-0
0%
Out
0.33852
50
0.3504
51
Ashe County
1-8-0
0%
Out
0.32844
52
0.3450
48 of 56 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
3A bubble — 48 of 55 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
45
Heide Trask
2-7-0
100%
In
0.34625
44
0.3387
46
Patton
1-8-0
98%
In
0.32093
48
0.3285
47
Bessemer City
1-8-0
98%
In
0.33037
46
0.3265
On the bubble
48
Draughn
0-9-0
59%
Bubble
0.32602
47
0.3210
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Bartlett Yancey
1-8-0
42%
Bubble
0.30692
50
0.3077
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
50
Trinity
1-8-0
2%
Out
0.31758
49
0.3072
51
Madison
1-9-0
0%
Out
0.30421
51
0.3066
52
Goldsboro
0-8-0
0%
Out
0.27096
52
0.2932
48 of 55 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
2A bubble — 48 of 46 make the field
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
1A bubble — 48 of 26 make the field
All 26 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Winningest Coaches
North Carolina head-coaching records: every game in our archive for the seasons a coach is credited with, from HSFHA, the NCHSAA, NCHSFootball and MaxPreps, with a published stint filling a season no source names. Records outside North Carolina are HSFHA's. Still being completed: for 1980-1999 many seasons have no coach on record anywhere yet.
All-time, by NC wins
Coach
Schools
NC record
Pct
Seasons
State titles
Other states
Career
1
Jack Holley
Tabor City 1964-69, 1972-81; Hallsboro 1970-71; Wallace-Rose Hill 1982-92, 1997-2008; South Columbus 1993-96; Harrells Christian Academy 2009-10
417-126-8
.764
47
417-126-8
2
David Gentry
Edneyville 1974-83; Murphy 1984-2020
406-173-2
.701
47
9
406-173-2
3
Burton Cates
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
392-132
.748
42
1
392-132
2
Jeff Craddock
Tarboro 2004-26
264-48
.846
23
9
264-48
3
Steve Davis
Dudley 2004-26
252-61
.805
23
5
252-61
4
Richard Bailey
Jack Britt 2000-02, 2004, 2006-10; Scotland 2012-26
240-76
.759
24
240-76
5
Antonio Moore
Northeastern 2005-26
238-58
.804
22
238-58
6
Donnie Kiefer
Saint Pauls 1986-87; Southwest Guilford 1988-90; Gates County 1991-93; Andrews 1994-95; Hibriten 1996-98; Roanoke 1999-2003; East Carteret 2004-06; Tuscola 2007-11; Central Cabarrus 2012-16, 2022, 2025-26
120 simulated seasons. Results through week 10 are taken as they stand; every week after that is played out in full, with ratings refit after each one. Outcomes are sampled rather than awarded to the favorite, so upsets happen at the rate the model believes they happen. The mean rating comes back close to where the season has already put each team — a simulation learns nothing new about games nobody has played — so the 10th–90th band, not the mean, is the forecast, and it widens the further out the projection runs.