NC high school football · 2026 · week 11 · as of October 25
Title races and the RPI bubble
Which remaining games decide a conference title, and which teams are fighting for the last playoff berths. Built from the games in our database as of Sunday, October 25.
Talking points
- Clayton at Cleveland (Fri 10/30) is the biggest decider on the board this week (Greater Neuse River). Cleveland is 58% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss; Clayton is 42% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss. We favor Cleveland, 58%.
- 21 conference title deciders in Week 11 (Thu 10/29 to Fri 10/30). The unbeaten-versus-unbeaten ones: Chambers at Mallard Creek (Meck Power Six, 4-0 vs 4-0 in the league); Lake Norman at Mooresville (North Piedmont, 4-0 vs 4-0 in the league); Wake Forest at Heritage (Northern Six, 4-0 vs 4-0 in the league); Shelby at Burns (Southern Piedmont, 7-0 vs 7-0 in the league); Scotland at Cape Fear (Tri County, 4-0 vs 4-0 in the league). In each, the winner is at or near a sure share and the loser's title chance collapses.
- Chambers, No. 6 in our power ratings, has a decider on Fri 10/30 (Chambers at Mallard Creek, Meck Power Six): 62% to share the title now, 100% with a win over Mallard Creek and 0% with a loss.
- Clinched outright: Hobgood Charter (Atlantic), Southeast Alamance (Mid Carolina), Asheville School (NCISAA Big 6), Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (NCISAA Western), Weddington (Southern Carolina), Hibriten (Western Piedmont); clinched at least a share: Holmes (Albemarle AAC), Junius H Rose (Big Carolina), Northern Nash (Big East), Seaforth (Big Seven), Crest (Big South), Lakewood (Carolina), Hoggard (Carolina Coast), Union Pines (Carolina Pines), Corvian Community (Catawba Shores), Thomasville (Central Carolina), Reagan (Central Piedmont), Northside (Jacksonville) (Coastal), Northside (Pinetown) (Coastal Plains), East Duplin (East Central), Wilson Preparatory Academy (Eastern Carolina), Tarboro (Eastern Plains), Seventy-First (Eastern Sandhills), Eastern Randolph (Four Rivers), Hough (Greater Charlotte), A L Brown (Greater Metro GMAC), Chatham Central (Greater Triad), Grimsley (Metro), Pinecrest (Mid South), Walkertown (Mid State), Asheville (Mountain), Franklin (Mountain Eight), Harrells Christian Academy (NCISAA Big East), Providence Day (NCISAA Big South), Northeastern (Northeastern Coastal), West Stokes (Northwest), T Wingate Andrews (PAC Seven), Mount Tabor (Piedmont Triad), Apex Friendship (Quad City Seven), Warren County (Roanoke River), Monroe (Rocky River), Murphy (Smoky Mountain), Jay M Robinson (South Piedmont), Whiteville (Southeastern), Providence (Southwestern), James Kenan (Swine Valley), Northern Guilford (TAAC Six), West Craven (Three Rivers), Southern School of Energy (Tobacco Road), Middle Creek (Triangle Six), West Iredell (Western Foothills), Hendersonville (Western Highlands). This week a win clinches at least a share for T Wingate Andrews (outright) (Randleman at T Wingate Andrews, Thu 10/29); Mallard Creek (outright) (Chambers at Mallard Creek, Fri 10/30); Chambers (outright) (Chambers at Mallard Creek, Fri 10/30); Mooresville (outright) (Lake Norman at Mooresville, Fri 10/30); Lake Norman (outright) (Lake Norman at Mooresville, Fri 10/30).
- Final week's de facto title games (Week 11): Chambers at Mallard Creek (Meck Power Six, Fri 10/30); Lake Norman at Mooresville (North Piedmont, Fri 10/30); Wake Forest at Heritage (Northern Six, Fri 10/30); Shelby at Burns (Southern Piedmont, Fri 10/30); Scotland at Cape Fear (Tri County, Fri 10/30); North Stanly at Union Academy (Yadkin Valley, Fri 10/30). The winner is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive. The decider list for that week has 21 games in all.
- No bubble in 1A (26 teams for 48 spots), 2A (46 teams for 48 spots): everyone is in on these numbers, so what is left to play for is seeding. The bubble is 8A, 7A, 6A, 5A, 4A, 3A.
- 6A: 48 of 58 teams get in. 43 are above 99% and 4 below 1%; the 5 closest calls: South View 85%, West Brunswick 83%, West Johnston 75%, Central Cabarrus 72%, Lee County 69%.
- 7A: 48 of 60 teams get in. 44 are above 99% and 6 below 1%; the 4 closest calls: Riverside 70%, Purnell Swett 57%, North Mecklenburg 33%, Lumberton 29%.
- Best bubble-versus-bubble game: Lumberton at Purnell Swett in 7A (Fri 10/30). Purnell Swett goes from <1% to >99% to make the field with a win; Lumberton goes from <1% to 67%.
- Can't get in by winning out (under 5% even with a sweep, in our simulations): Harding University (6A), Chapel Hill (7A), Beddingfield (3A), Northwest Guilford (8A), Corinth Holders (8A); Need help even if they win out: Lee County (6A), Lumberton (7A), Concord (5A), Cox Mill (7A), E E Smith (6A).
- Already safe (above 99% to make the field): 8A 22 of 32, 7A 44 of 60, 6A 43 of 58, 5A 43 of 57, 4A 45 of 57, 3A 45 of 56.
- NCISAA: NCISAA I has one live cut, 8th versus 9th by MaxPreps: North Raleigh Christian Academy (38.1) over Metrolina Christian Academy (37.2); NCISAA II has 7 teams for 8 berths.
How to read this
Share of the title means finishing level with or ahead of everyone else in the conference on conference winning percentage (a tie counts as half a win). We do not call tiebreakers, so we never say who wins one. “Alive” means a path to a share exists. “Clinched” and “eliminated” appear only where we counted every outcome of every remaining conference game and it is proven. Percentages are whole numbers, and “<1%” and “>99%” mean not proven impossible or certain.
Win chances for tackle football come from season projection run 30 (120 simulated seasons, 4454 results, through week 10; through the week just played). The bubble tables give, for each team, the chance to make the playoff field and the chance if it wins out or loses a given number of its remaining games. Team strength is our own power ratings first.
Conference title deciders
21 deciders across 29 conferences, grouped by week. A game is a decider when both teams are alive with at least a 5% chance at a share of the title, and either side's chance moves 25 points or more between a win and a loss (or the two sides' moves add to 30 or more), or a win clinches a share, or a loss eliminates a team. Within a week, games are in date order and then by how much they move the race.
Week 11Thu 10/29 to Fri 10/30 · 21 deciders, 29 marked as de facto title games
A de facto title game in the last week is one where whoever wins is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive.
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/29 | Randleman 3-1 / 4-5 at T Wingate Andrews 4-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Randleman 70 (No. 229); T Wingate Andrews 94 (No. 79) | PAC Seven | T Wingate Andrews 97% | Randleman 3% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it T Wingate Andrews >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Chambers 4-0 / 9-0 at Mallard Creek 4-0 / 7-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Chambers 120 (No. 6); Mallard Creek 115 (No. 14) | Meck Power Six | Chambers 62% | Chambers 62% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Mallard Creek 38% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Lake Norman 4-0 / 9-0 at Mooresville 4-0 / 5-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Lake Norman 119 (No. 7); Mooresville 105 (No. 39) | North Piedmont | Lake Norman 82% | Lake Norman 82% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Mooresville 18% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Wake Forest 4-0 / 7-2 at Heritage 4-0 / 5-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Wake Forest 108 (No. 27); Heritage 83 (No. 140) | Northern Six | Wake Forest 93% | Wake Forest 93% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Heritage 7% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Shelby 7-0 / 8-1 at Burns 7-0 / 7-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Shelby 101 (No. 47); Burns 92 (No. 91) | Southern Piedmont | Shelby 68% | Shelby 68% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Burns 32% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Scotland 4-0 / 8-1 at Cape Fear 4-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Scotland 108 (No. 28); Cape Fear 96 (No. 66) | Tri County | Scotland 78% | Scotland 78% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Cape Fear 22% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | North Stanly 5-0 / 8-0 at Union Academy 5-1 / 7-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: North Stanly 91 (No. 95); Union Academy 64 (No. 283) | Yadkin Valley | North Stanly 97% | North Stanly 97% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Union Academy 3% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Clayton 4-1 / 8-1 at Cleveland 4-1 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Clayton 115 (No. 13); Cleveland 119 (No. 9) | Greater Neuse River | Cleveland 58% | Clayton 42% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Cleveland 58% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Jay M Robinson 6-0 / 9-0 at Northwest Cabarrus 5-1 / 7-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Jay M Robinson 110 (No. 23); Northwest Cabarrus 85 (No. 129) | South Piedmont | Jay M Robinson 95% | Jay M Robinson >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Northwest Cabarrus 5% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Manteo 3-1 / 7-2 at Holmes 4-0 / 7-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Manteo 59 (No. 306); Holmes 88 (No. 109) | Albemarle AAC | Holmes 97% | Manteo 3% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Holmes >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Kings Mountain 4-1 / 7-2 at Crest 5-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Kings Mountain 108 (No. 25); Crest 108 (No. 29) | Big South | Kings Mountain 51% | Kings Mountain 51% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Crest >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Ashley 4-1 / 6-3 at Hoggard 5-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Ashley 84 (No. 133); Hoggard 116 (No. 12) | Carolina Coast | Hoggard 97% | Ashley 3% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Hoggard >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Providence Grove 3-1 / 6-3 at Thomasville 4-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Providence Grove 70 (No. 228); Thomasville 84 (No. 135) | Central Carolina | Thomasville 83% | Providence Grove 17% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Thomasville >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | East Forsyth 3-1 / 6-3 at Reagan 4-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: East Forsyth 111 (No. 22); Reagan 117 (No. 10) | Central Piedmont | Reagan 64% | East Forsyth 36% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Reagan >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Havelock 4-1 / 5-4 at Northside (Jacksonville) 5-0 / 9-0DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Havelock 93 (No. 82); Northside (Jacksonville) 107 (No. 33) | Coastal | Northside (Jacksonville) 82% | Havelock 18% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Northside (Jacksonville) >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | North Edgecombe 3-1 / 6-3 at Wilson Preparatory Academy 4-0 / 5-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: North Edgecombe 47 (No. 355); Wilson Preparatory Academy 75 (No. 199) | Eastern Carolina | Wilson Preparatory Academy 97% | North Edgecombe 3% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Wilson Preparatory Academy >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | West Cabarrus 5-1 / 5-4 at A L Brown 6-0 / 9-0DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: West Cabarrus 81 (No. 154); A L Brown 106 (No. 35) | Greater Metro GMAC | A L Brown 97% | West Cabarrus 3% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it A L Brown >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Richmond 3-1 / 4-5 at Pinecrest 4-0 / 6-3DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Richmond 102 (No. 45); Pinecrest 102 (No. 46) | Mid South | Pinecrest 52% | Richmond 48% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Pinecrest >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Morehead 4-1 / 6-3 at Walkertown 5-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Morehead 63 (No. 288); Walkertown 82 (No. 148) | Mid State | Walkertown 92% | Morehead 8% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Walkertown >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Enka 3-1 / 8-1 at Asheville 4-0 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Enka 84 (No. 138); Asheville 100 (No. 49) | Mountain | Asheville 87% | Enka 13% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Asheville >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Trinity Christian 1-1 / 5-4 at Harrells Christian Academy 2-0 / 5-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Trinity Christian 81 (No. 157); Harrells Christian Academy 77 (No. 183) | NCISAA Big East | Harrells Christian Academy 51% | Trinity Christian 49% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Harrells Christian Academy >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Pasquotank County 3-1 / 6-3 at Northeastern 4-0 / 9-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Pasquotank County 71 (No. 226); Northeastern 93 (No. 83) | Northeastern Coastal | Northeastern 93% | Pasquotank County 7% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Northeastern >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Panther Creek 4-1 / 6-3 at Apex Friendship 5-0 / 9-0DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Panther Creek 87 (No. 115); Apex Friendship 98 (No. 55) | Quad City Seven | Apex Friendship 76% | Panther Creek 24% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Apex Friendship >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | South Columbus 3-1 / 6-3 at Whiteville 4-0 / 9-0DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: South Columbus 69 (No. 241); Whiteville 80 (No. 167) | Southeastern | Whiteville 82% | South Columbus 18% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Whiteville >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Providence 4-0 / 5-4 at Ardrey Kell 3-1 / 6-3DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Providence 92 (No. 89); Ardrey Kell 96 (No. 64) | Southwestern | Ardrey Kell 63% | Providence >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Ardrey Kell 63% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | James Kenan 4-0 / 7-1 at Wallace-Rose Hill 3-1 / 5-3DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: James Kenan 90 (No. 98); Wallace-Rose Hill 85 (No. 128) | Swine Valley | James Kenan 60% | James Kenan >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Wallace-Rose Hill 40% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Holly Springs 3-1 / 5-4 at Middle Creek 4-0 / 7-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Holly Springs 86 (No. 121); Middle Creek 111 (No. 21) | Triangle Six | Middle Creek 97% | Holly Springs 3% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it Middle Creek >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Fri 10/30 | Monroe 4-0 / 7-2 at Forest Hills 3-1 / 8-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Monroe 106 (No. 36); Forest Hills 88 (No. 110) | Rocky River | Monroe 87% | Monroe >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Forest Hills 13% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Warren County 4-0 / 9-0 at Northwest Halifax 2-1 / 4-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Warren County 88 (No. 108); Northwest Halifax 42 (No. 374) | Roanoke River | Warren County 97% | Warren County >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Northwest Halifax 3% now → 92% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
The RPI bubble
NCHSAA fills each field by final RPI alone, with no automatic bids. We play out every remaining regular-season game 20,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, turn each finish into RPI with the association's formula, and count how often a team is in the field (24 in 8A, 48 in 7A, 48 in 6A, 48 in 5A, 48 in 4A, 48 in 3A, 48 in 2A, 48 in 1A). Teams listed are those with a real chance either way, plus the nearest teams on each side.
8A24 of 32 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 24th team's RPI is 0.4600 (next team 0.4356). In our simulation 22 teams are above 99% to make it, 6 are below 1%, and 4 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Friendship | 9-0 | 98 (No. 55) | 0.6773 (4) | 1 | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| South Mecklenburg | 4-5 | 81 (No. 162) | 0.4776 (22) | 1 | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Wakefield | 3-6 | 78 (No. 174) | 0.4703 (23) | 1 | 98% | >99% | 92% | Win and in |
| Willow Spring | 3-6 | 76 (No. 193) | 0.4600 (24) | 1 | 97% | >99% | 96% | Safe even with a slip |
| Enloe | 4-5 | 82 (No. 152) | 0.4356 (25) | 1 | 3% | 97% | 1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| East Mecklenburg | 4-5 | 73 (No. 215) | 0.4047 (27) | 1 | 2% | 71% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Northwest Guilford | 1-8 | 73 (No. 217) | 0.3918 (28) | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
| Corinth Holders | 2-7 | 81 (No. 156) | 0.3819 (30) | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 24, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
7A48 of 60 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3969 (next team 0.3877). In our simulation 44 teams are above 99% to make it, 6 are below 1%, and 10 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Wake | 3-6 | 71 (No. 223) | 0.4314 (41) | 1 | >99% | >99% | 98% | Safe even with a slip |
| Ballantyne Ridge | 3-6 | 75 (No. 197) | 0.4367 (39) | 1 | 99% | >99% | 85% | Win and in |
| South Iredell | 2-7 | 74 (No. 211) | 0.4021 (47) | 1 | 96% | >99% | 96% | Safe even with a slip |
| Riverside | 2-7 | 57 (No. 316) | 0.3715 (51) | 1 | 70% | 81% | <1% | Win out, likely in |
| Purnell Swett | 3-6 | 67 (No. 247) | 0.4022 (46) | 1 | 57% | >99% | <1% | Win and in |
| North Mecklenburg | 3-6 | 85 (No. 124) | 0.3969 (48) | 1 | 33% | >99% | 14% | Win and in |
| Lumberton | 1-8 | 64 (No. 286) | 0.3635 (52) | 1 | 29% | 67% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Cox Mill | 2-7 | 67 (No. 254) | 0.3580 (54) | 1 | 7% | 15% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Cary | 3-6 | 66 (No. 269) | 0.3792 (50) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Southwest Guilford | 2-7 | 60 (No. 297) | 0.3877 (49) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Cuthbertson | 1-8 | 67 (No. 249) | 0.3511 (55) | 1 | 3% | 94% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Chapel Hill | 2-7 | 45 (No. 361) | 0.3606 (53) | 1 | <1% | 1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
| Smithfield-Selma | 0-10 | 57 (No. 315) | 0.3262 (58) | 0 | <1% | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 24, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
6A48 of 58 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.4000 (next team 0.3967). In our simulation 43 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 11 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip O. Berry | 4-5 | 67 (No. 252) | 0.4383 (38) | 1 | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Piedmont | 3-6 | 76 (No. 190) | 0.4222 (42) | 1 | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Saint Stephens | 3-6 | 76 (No. 191) | 0.4226 (41) | 1 | 94% | >99% | 91% | Win and in |
| South View | 3-6 | 78 (No. 173) | 0.4000 (48) | 1 | 85% | >99% | 83% | Win and in |
| West Brunswick | 2-8 | 72 (No. 220) | 0.4050 (47) | 0 | 83% | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| West Johnston | 3-6 | 67 (No. 257) | 0.4208 (44) | 1 | 75% | >99% | 65% | Win and in |
| Central Cabarrus | 2-7 | 74 (No. 214) | 0.4114 (45) | 1 | 72% | >99% | <1% | Win and in |
| Lee County | 1-8 | 66 (No. 267) | 0.3967 (49) | 1 | 69% | 73% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Western Guilford | 3-6 | 56 (No. 317) | 0.3948 (50) | 1 | 9% | >99% | 6% | Win and in (long shot) |
| E E Smith | 2-7 | 74 (No. 210) | 0.3645 (54) | 1 | 6% | 30% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Southeast Guilford | 2-7 | 67 (No. 258) | 0.3799 (51) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Vance County | 1-8 | 58 (No. 313) | 0.3698 (53) | 1 | 3% | 99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Harding University | 2-7 | 67 (No. 248) | 0.3752 (52) | 1 | 1% | 3% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
| East Chapel Hill | 1-7 | 31 (No. 412) | 0.2664 (58) | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 24, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
5A48 of 57 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.4074 (next team 0.4027). In our simulation 43 teams are above 99% to make it, 6 are below 1%, and 8 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person | 2-7 | 67 (No. 259) | 0.4224 (45) | 1 | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Southern Wayne | 3-6 | 60 (No. 301) | 0.4427 (41) | 1 | 99% | >99% | 98% | Safe even with a slip |
| Forestview | 1-8 | 66 (No. 266) | 0.4074 (48) | 1 | 97% | >99% | <1% | Win and in |
| Huss | 3-6 | 77 (No. 184) | 0.4246 (44) | 1 | 96% | >99% | 95% | Win and in |
| North Lincoln | 2-7 | 71 (No. 222) | 0.4187 (47) | 1 | 74% | >99% | 31% | Win and in |
| Charles B Aycock | 2-7 | 66 (No. 265) | 0.4197 (46) | 1 | 74% | >99% | 27% | Win and in |
| Richlands | 2-7 | 61 (No. 294) | 0.4027 (49) | 1 | 40% | >99% | 29% | Win and in |
| Concord | 1-8 | 59 (No. 307) | 0.3834 (50) | 1 | 21% | 53% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Dixon | 2-7 | 65 (No. 272) | 0.3456 (53) | 1 | 1% | 20% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Douglas Byrd | 0-9 | 37 (No. 393) | 0.2586 (56) | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 24, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
4A48 of 57 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3435 (next team 0.3413). In our simulation 45 teams are above 99% to make it, 3 are below 1%, and 9 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Davidson | 3-6 | 66 (No. 270) | 0.3968 (44) | 1 | 99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lincoln Charter | 2-7 | 43 (No. 370) | 0.3921 (45) | 1 | 99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lexington | 2-7 | 65 (No. 275) | 0.3881 (46) | 1 | 93% | >99% | 86% | Win and in |
| East Henderson | 1-8 | 49 (No. 345) | 0.3385 (50) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Ashe County | 1-8 | 41 (No. 379) | 0.3284 (52) | 1 | 2% | 76% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| North Johnston | 2-7 | 54 (No. 330) | 0.3344 (51) | 1 | 2% | 56% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Brevard | 1-8 | 55 (No. 321) | 0.3413 (49) | 1 | 1% | 46% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 24, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
3A48 of 56 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3209 (next team 0.3176). In our simulation 45 teams are above 99% to make it, 5 are below 1%, and 6 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Heritage | 6-3 | 75 (No. 204) | 0.5467 (21) | 1 | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Patton | 1-8 | 38 (No. 390) | 0.3209 (48) | 1 | 99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Bessemer City | 1-8 | 37 (No. 395) | 0.3304 (46) | 1 | 93% | >99% | 93% | Win and in |
| Draughn | 0-9 | 32 (No. 408) | 0.3260 (47) | 1 | 60% | >99% | 59% | Win and in |
| Bartlett Yancey | 1-8 | 35 (No. 398) | 0.3069 (50) | 1 | 42% | >99% | <1% | Win and in |
| Goldsboro | 0-8 | 19 (No. 430) | 0.2710 (52) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Trinity | 1-8 | 28 (No. 419) | 0.3176 (49) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Madison | 1-9 | 37 (No. 392) | 0.3042 (51) | 0 | <1% | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Beddingfield | 0-9 | 30 (No. 414) | 0.2673 (53) | 1 | <1% | 1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 24, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
2A46 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
2A has 46 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
1A26 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
1A has 26 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
NCISAA
NCISAA seeds eight teams per classification by MaxPreps rating. The numbers below are the latest MaxPreps release; our own power ratings and win chances are alongside.
NCISAA I10 teams, 8 berths
The cut is between North Raleigh Christian Academy (8th, 38.1) and Metrolina Christian Academy (9th, 37.2), a gap of 0.9 points. They played on Fri 9/25: Metrolina Christian Academy won 17-7.
| MaxPreps order | Team | Record | Our power | MaxPreps rating | Games left (our win chance) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Charlotte Latin | 4-5 | 86 (No. 119) | 54.1 | Fri 10/30 at Charlotte Christian (62%) |
| 7 | Charlotte Christian | 3-5 | 85 (No. 126) | 53.2 | Fri 10/30 vs Charlotte Latin (38%) |
| 8 (last in) | North Raleigh Christian Academy | 6-3 | 76 (No. 189) | 38.1 | Fri 10/30 vs Ravenscroft (83%) |
| 9 | Metrolina Christian Academy | 3-6 | 73 (No. 216) | 37.2 | Fri 10/30 vs Hickory Grove Christian (80%) |
| 10 | Ravenscroft | 2-7 | 58 (No. 312) | 25.2 | Fri 10/30 at North Raleigh Christian Academy (17%) |
Ordered by MaxPreps rating, the measure NCISAA seeds on; our power ratings are reference only. Shown: the teams around the cut.
NCISAA II7 teams, 8 berths
7 NCISAA teams for 8 berths: every team is in on the numbers.
The simulation samples each game from a fixed win chance, so it does not re-rate a team after a simulated upset, and it does not model opt-outs, forfeit rulings not yet made, or the real RPI of out-of-state opponents whose full schedules we do not hold.
1 team with almost no reported games and no computable RPI today (Spring Creek) is held out of the simulated field.
Chances are good to a few points, not exact: 20,000 simulated finishes, and rarer scenarios re-run with the team's own results fixed.
Data check: records match NCHSAA for 377 of 384 teams (table dated October 24); 122 past-dated games are still unscored, 1 of them with an NCHSAA team.