← Week 11 report · Title races and the RPI bubble →
2026 NCHSAA Football Playoff Projections
Week 11. The bracket is the most likely path: the field is the teams most likely to make it, the same teams above the line in each RPI bubble, seeded on their projected final RPI, and every game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts. The title odds beside it come from playing the rest of the season and the playoffs 120 times, upsets included — a 60% favorite wins this bracket every time and the title 60% of the time. Field sizes and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 48 teams in 1A-7A and 24 in 8A, split east and west by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final and the final at a neutral site.
8A
Projected champion: Hough · wins the title in 48% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 22 | South Mecklenburg | 4-5-0 | 100% | In | 0.47760 | 22 | 0.4738 |
| 23 | Wakefield | 3-6-0 | 98% | In | 0.47028 | 23 | 0.4661 |
| 24 | Willow Spring | 3-6-0 | 98% | In | 0.46002 | 24 | 0.4497 |
| Projected cut · top 24 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 25 | East Mecklenburg | 4-5-0 | 2% | Out | 0.40466 | 27 | 0.4068 |
| 26 | Enloe | 4-5-0 | 2% | Out | 0.43558 | 25 | 0.4334 |
| 27 | Apex | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.41298 | 26 | 0.4066 |
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Leesville Road289Laney20Leesville Road 72% · at Leesville Road
5Green Hope3512Willow Spring17Green Hope 88% · at Green Hope
7Panther Creek2310Broughton21Panther Creek 55% · at Panther Creek
6Jordan3711Wakefield16Jordan 91% · at Jordan
Second Round
1Millbrook428Leesville Road14Millbrook 96% · at Millbrook
4Rolesville445Green Hope13Rolesville 97% · at Rolesville
2Hoggard447Panther Creek13Hoggard 97% · at Hoggard
3Apex Friendship256Jordan21Apex Friendship 61% · at Apex Friendship
Third Round
1Millbrook274Rolesville20Millbrook 70% · at Millbrook
2Hoggard373Apex Friendship16Hoggard 92% · at Hoggard
Regional Final
1Millbrook292Hoggard19Millbrook 76% · at Millbrook
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8West Charlotte309Hoke County19West Charlotte 77% · at West Charlotte
5Myers Park4212South Mecklenburg14Myers Park 96% · at Myers Park
7Pinecrest2710Ardrey Kell20Pinecrest 69% · at Pinecrest
6Palisades3311Providence18Palisades 85% · at Palisades
Second Round
1Hough468West Charlotte13Hough 98% · at Hough
4West Forsyth325Myers Park18West Forsyth 84% · at West Forsyth
2Chambers377Pinecrest16Chambers 92% · at Chambers
3Mallard Creek316Palisades18Mallard Creek 81% · at Mallard Creek
Third Round
1Hough354West Forsyth17Hough 89% · at Hough
2Chambers263Mallard Creek20Chambers 66% · at Chambers
Regional Final
1Hough332Chambers18Hough 86% · at Hough
State Championship
Hough28Millbrook19Hough 73% · neutral site
Every 8A team's projection — 32 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hough | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 48.3% |
| Chambers | 9.6-0.4 | 100% | 2.0 | 8.3% |
| Millbrook | 9.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 27.5% |
| Hoggard | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.7 | 5.0% |
| Apex Friendship | 9.8-0.2 | 100% | 2.3 | 0.0% |
| Mallard Creek | 7.4-2.6 | 100% | 3.6 | 3.3% |
| West Forsyth | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 3.3% |
| Rolesville | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 4.2% |
| Myers Park | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 5.1 | 0.0% |
| Palisades | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.1 | 0.0% |
| Pinecrest | 6.5-3.5 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| West Charlotte | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| Green Hope | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.2 | 0.0% |
| Jordan | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 6.5 | 0.0% |
| Hoke County | 5.7-4.3 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Panther Creek | 6.2-3.8 | 100% | 7.5 | 0.0% |
| Ardrey Kell | 6.6-3.4 | 100% | 9.9 | 0.0% |
| Leesville Road | 5.7-4.3 | 100% | 7.9 | 0.0% |
| Laney | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 8.2 | 0.0% |
| Providence | 5.4-4.6 | 100% | 10.5 | 0.0% |
| Broughton | 5.3-4.7 | 100% | 9.7 | 0.0% |
| South Mecklenburg | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Wakefield | 3.7-6.3 | 98% | 11.3 | 0.0% |
| Willow Spring | 3.1-6.9 | 98% | 11.7 | 0.0% |
| East Mecklenburg | 4.0-6.0 | 2% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Enloe | 4.0-6.0 | 2% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Apex | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Northwest Guilford | 1.4-8.6 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Corinth Holders | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Athens Drive | 2.3-7.7 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Garinger | 2.1-7.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Green Level | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
7A
Projected champion: Weddington · wins the title in 26% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 44 | Parkland | 3-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.40629 | 45 | 0.4101 |
| 45 | Ballantyne Ridge | 3-6-0 | 99% | In | 0.43667 | 39 | 0.4356 |
| 46 | South Iredell | 2-7-0 | 98% | In | 0.40213 | 47 | 0.4000 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 47 | Riverside | 2-7-0 | 73% | Bubble | 0.37147 | 51 | 0.3902 |
| 48 | Purnell Swett | 3-6-0 | 57% | Bubble | 0.40218 | 46 | 0.4020 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | North Mecklenburg | 3-6-0 | 34% | Bubble | 0.39690 | 48 | 0.3976 |
| 50 | Lumberton | 1-8-0 | 28% | Bubble | 0.36355 | 52 | 0.3692 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 51 | Cox Mill | 2-7-0 | 8% | Out | 0.35802 | 54 | 0.3693 |
| 52 | Southwest Guilford | 2-7-0 | 2% | Out | 0.38766 | 49 | 0.3746 |
| 53 | Cary | 3-6-0 | 0% | Out | 0.37925 | 50 | 0.3789 |
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Fuquay-Varina3217North Brunswick18Fuquay-Varina 84% · at Fuquay-Varina
9Southeast Raleigh5324Riverside10Southeast Raleigh 99% · at Southeast Raleigh
13South Central3420Pine Forest17South Central 86% · at South Central
12Ashley3321East Wake17Ashley 86% · at Ashley
15Heritage2418Topsail21Heritage 59% · at Heritage
10D H Conley2523South Garner21D H Conley 63% · at D H Conley
14Holly Springs2719Sanderson20Holly Springs 68% · at Holly Springs
11Hillside2822New Hanover20Hillside 73% · at Hillside
Second Round
1Cleveland4416Fuquay-Varina13Cleveland 97% · at Cleveland
8Cape Fear179Southeast Raleigh34Southeast Raleigh 87% · at Cape Fear
4New Bern3213South Central18New Bern 82% · at New Bern
5Wake Forest4112Ashley14Wake Forest 96% · at Wake Forest
2Garner4515Heritage13Garner 97% · at Garner
7Southern School of Energy and Sustainability3410D H Conley17Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 87% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
3Clayton4414Holly Springs13Clayton 97% · at Clayton
6Cardinal Gibbons4511Hillside13Cardinal Gibbons 98% · at Cardinal Gibbons
Third Round
1Cleveland289Southeast Raleigh20Cleveland 72% · at Cleveland
4New Bern205Wake Forest28Wake Forest 71% · at New Bern
2Garner317Southern School of Energy and Sustainability18Garner 81% · at Garner
3Clayton246Cardinal Gibbons21Clayton 58% · at Clayton
Fourth Round
1Cleveland315Wake Forest18Cleveland 82% · at Cleveland
2Garner223Clayton22Garner 51% · at Garner
Regional Final
1Cleveland262Garner20Cleveland 65% · at Cleveland
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Hopewell2117Porter Ridge24Porter Ridge 57% · at Hopewell
9Hickory Ridge4524South Iredell13Hickory Ridge 97% · at Hickory Ridge
13Butler3220Overhills18Butler 84% · at Butler
12West Cabarrus2121Independence25Independence 60% · at West Cabarrus
15Jack Britt2918R J Reynolds19Jack Britt 76% · at Jack Britt
10Davie County4423Purnell Swett13Davie County 97% · at Davie County
14Richmond4319Ballantyne Ridge14Richmond 97% · at Richmond
11Mooresville4822Parkland12Mooresville 98% · at Mooresville
Second Round
1Weddington4917Porter Ridge11Weddington 99% · at Weddington
8East Forsyth279Hickory Ridge20East Forsyth 69% · at East Forsyth
4Lake Norman4213Butler14Lake Norman 96% · at Lake Norman
5A L Brown3921Independence15A L Brown 94% · at A L Brown
2Grimsley4715Jack Britt12Grimsley 98% · at Grimsley
7Page3110Davie County18Page 81% · at Page
3Reagan3514Richmond17Reagan 88% · at Reagan
6Marvin Ridge2511Mooresville21Marvin Ridge 61% · at Marvin Ridge
Third Round
1Weddington368East Forsyth16Weddington 90% · at Weddington
4Lake Norman335A L Brown17Lake Norman 86% · at Lake Norman
2Grimsley377Page16Grimsley 91% · at Grimsley
3Reagan316Marvin Ridge19Reagan 79% · at Reagan
Fourth Round
1Weddington294Lake Norman19Weddington 76% · at Weddington
2Grimsley293Reagan19Grimsley 77% · at Grimsley
Regional Final
1Weddington242Grimsley21Weddington 59% · at Weddington
State Championship
Weddington29Cleveland19Weddington 75% · neutral site
Every 7A team's projection — 60 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weddington | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 25.8% |
| Grimsley | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 32.5% |
| Reagan | 8.6-1.4 | 100% | 3.3 | 1.7% |
| Lake Norman | 9.8-0.2 | 100% | 4.0 | 7.5% |
| Cleveland | 8.6-1.4 | 100% | 1.8 | 10.8% |
| Garner | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 2.1 | 6.7% |
| A L Brown | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 4.8 | 0.0% |
| Clayton | 8.4-1.6 | 100% | 2.4 | 8.3% |
| Marvin Ridge | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 5.9 | 0.0% |
| New Bern | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 4.6 | 0.0% |
| Wake Forest | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 5.4 | 0.0% |
| Cardinal Gibbons | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.9 | 3.3% |
| Southern School of Energy and Sustainability | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Page | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 7.2 | 0.8% |
| Cape Fear | 8.2-1.8 | 100% | 7.7 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Raleigh | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.8 | 1.7% |
| D H Conley | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.4 | 0.0% |
| East Forsyth | 6.4-3.6 | 100% | 9.1 | 0.8% |
| Hickory Ridge | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 8.7 | 0.0% |
| Davie County | 5.9-4.1 | 100% | 9.7 | 0.0% |
| Mooresville | 5.2-4.8 | 100% | 10.4 | 0.0% |
| Hillside | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.1 | 0.0% |
| Ashley | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.1 | 0.0% |
| West Cabarrus | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.1 | 0.0% |
| Butler | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 12.6 | 0.0% |
| South Central | 4.2-5.8 | 100% | 14.1 | 0.0% |
| Holly Springs | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.4 | 0.0% |
| Richmond | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 13.6 | 0.0% |
| Heritage | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 14.7 | 0.0% |
| Jack Britt | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Fuquay-Varina | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 16.2 | 0.0% |
| North Brunswick | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 17.3 | 0.0% |
| Topsail | 3.7-6.3 | 100% | 17.4 | 0.0% |
| Hopewell | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 16.3 | 0.0% |
| Porter Ridge | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| R J Reynolds | 4.6-5.4 | 100% | 18.3 | 0.0% |
| Sanderson | 4.0-5.0 | 100% | 19.8 | 0.0% |
| Pine Forest | 3.4-6.6 | 100% | 20.3 | 0.0% |
| Overhills | 3.6-6.4 | 100% | 20.2 | 0.0% |
| East Wake | 3.8-6.2 | 100% | 21.4 | 0.0% |
| New Hanover | 2.3-7.7 | 100% | 21.9 | 0.0% |
| South Garner | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.2 | 0.0% |
| Independence | 1.2-8.8 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| Parkland | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.9 | 0.0% |
| Ballantyne Ridge | 4.0-6.0 | 99% | 19.5 | 0.0% |
| South Iredell | 2.1-7.9 | 98% | 23.3 | 0.0% |
| Riverside | 2.9-7.1 | 73% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Purnell Swett | 3.6-6.4 | 57% | 20.9 | 0.0% |
| North Mecklenburg | 3.2-6.8 | 34% | 21.5 | 0.0% |
| Lumberton | 1.4-8.6 | 28% | 23.7 | 0.0% |
| Cox Mill | 2.5-7.5 | 8% | 23.9 | 0.0% |
| Southwest Guilford | 2.0-8.0 | 2% | 22.7 | 0.0% |
| Cary | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| West Mecklenburg | 1.9-8.1 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cuthbertson | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Chapel Hill | 2.1-7.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| McDowell | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Smithfield-Selma | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Knightdale | 0.2-9.8 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Rocky River | 0.1-9.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
6A
Projected champion: Junius H Rose · wins the title in 24% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 42 | Piedmont | 3-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.42222 | 42 | 0.4212 |
| 43 | Western Harnett | 4-5-0 | 100% | In | 0.40901 | 46 | 0.4152 |
| 44 | Saint Stephens | 3-6-0 | 92% | In | 0.42260 | 41 | 0.4215 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 45 | South View | 3-6-0 | 84% | Bubble | 0.40000 | 48 | 0.4098 |
| 46 | West Brunswick | 2-8-0 | 83% | Bubble | 0.40501 | 47 | 0.4064 |
| 47 | West Johnston | 3-6-0 | 78% | Bubble | 0.42083 | 44 | 0.4161 |
| 48 | Central Cabarrus | 2-7-0 | 72% | Bubble | 0.41145 | 45 | 0.4171 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | Lee County | 1-8-0 | 72% | Bubble | 0.39673 | 49 | 0.4036 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 50 | E E Smith | 2-7-0 | 8% | Out | 0.36453 | 54 | 0.3704 |
| 51 | Western Guilford | 3-6-0 | 7% | Out | 0.39482 | 50 | 0.4006 |
| 52 | Southeast Guilford | 2-7-0 | 3% | Out | 0.37992 | 51 | 0.3772 |
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Felton Grove2017Gray's Creek26Gray's Creek 66% · at Felton Grove
9Seventy-First4524West Brunswick13Seventy-First 98% · at Seventy-First
13Swansboro3120White Oak18Swansboro 81% · at Swansboro
12Franklinton4121West Johnston14Franklinton 96% · at Franklinton
15South Johnston3818Northern15South Johnston 93% · at South Johnston
10Harnett Central3323South View18Harnett Central 84% · at Harnett Central
14Westover3119Terry Sanford18Westover 81% · at Westover
11Triton4422Western Harnett13Triton 97% · at Triton
Second Round
1Junius H Rose4817Gray's Creek12Junius H Rose 98% · at Junius H Rose
8Williams189Seventy-First32Seventy-First 83% · at Williams
4Union Pines4113Swansboro15Union Pines 95% · at Union Pines
5Scotland3712Franklinton16Scotland 91% · at Scotland
2Jacksonville4815South Johnston12Jacksonville 98% · at Jacksonville
7Middle Creek3910Harnett Central15Middle Creek 94% · at Middle Creek
3Northern Nash4314Westover14Northern Nash 96% · at Northern Nash
6Southern Alamance3511Triton17Southern Alamance 89% · at Southern Alamance
Third Round
1Junius H Rose319Seventy-First19Junius H Rose 80% · at Junius H Rose
4Union Pines195Scotland28Scotland 73% · at Union Pines
2Jacksonville257Middle Creek21Jacksonville 60% · at Jacksonville
3Northern Nash326Southern Alamance18Northern Nash 84% · at Northern Nash
Fourth Round
1Junius H Rose285Scotland20Junius H Rose 73% · at Junius H Rose
2Jacksonville253Northern Nash21Jacksonville 60% · at Jacksonville
Regional Final
1Junius H Rose242Jacksonville21Junius H Rose 57% · at Junius H Rose
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Reynolds2517Eastern Guilford21Reynolds 60% · at Reynolds
9Northern Guilford3524Central Cabarrus17Northern Guilford 89% · at Northern Guilford
13Glenn3520Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology17Glenn 89% · at Glenn
12Ashbrook4621South Caldwell12Ashbrook 98% · at Ashbrook
15Ragsdale2318Statesville21Ragsdale 55% · at Ragsdale
10Charlotte Catholic3723Piedmont16Charlotte Catholic 92% · at Charlotte Catholic
14Watauga2519Olympic21Watauga 62% · at Watauga
11Sun Valley3622Saint Stephens16Sun Valley 91% · at Sun Valley
Second Round
1Asheville4016Reynolds15Asheville 95% · at Asheville
8Freedom219Northern Guilford26Northern Guilford 64% · at Freedom
4Kings Mountain4213Glenn14Kings Mountain 96% · at Kings Mountain
5Mount Tabor2312Ashbrook22Mount Tabor 53% · at Mount Tabor
2Asheboro2815Ragsdale19Asheboro 74% · at Asheboro
7Dudley2310Charlotte Catholic22Dudley 54% · at Dudley
3Roberson4214Watauga14Roberson 96% · at Roberson
6Alexander Central2011Sun Valley26Sun Valley 66% · at Alexander Central
Third Round
1Asheville319Northern Guilford18Asheville 80% · at Asheville
4Kings Mountain335Mount Tabor18Kings Mountain 85% · at Kings Mountain
2Asheboro227Dudley23Dudley 53% · at Asheboro
3Roberson3611Sun Valley17Roberson 90% · at Roberson
Fourth Round
1Asheville204Kings Mountain28Kings Mountain 73% · at Asheville
3Roberson347Dudley17Roberson 87% · at Roberson
Regional Final
3Roberson234Kings Mountain22Roberson 53% · at Roberson
State Championship
Junius H Rose27Roberson20Junius H Rose 68% · neutral site
Every 6A team's projection — 58 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junius H Rose | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 24.2% |
| Asheville | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 1.0 | 1.7% |
| Jacksonville | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.4 | 24.2% |
| Northern Nash | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 3.3 | 10.0% |
| Union Pines | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.5 | 0.8% |
| Scotland | 8.8-1.2 | 100% | 4.0 | 5.8% |
| Asheboro | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.2 | 0.8% |
| Southern Alamance | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 5.9 | 0.0% |
| Middle Creek | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 5.8% |
| Roberson | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.2 | 14.2% |
| Williams | 6.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.5 | 0.0% |
| Seventy-First | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 8.5 | 0.8% |
| Kings Mountain | 7.5-2.5 | 100% | 4.2 | 10.0% |
| Harnett Central | 8.7-1.3 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Triton | 8.3-1.7 | 100% | 10.4 | 0.0% |
| Franklinton | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 11.4 | 0.0% |
| Mount Tabor | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 6.3 | 0.8% |
| Alexander Central | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.6 | 0.0% |
| Dudley | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Freedom | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Swansboro | 6.8-3.1 | 100% | 12.7 | 0.0% |
| Northern Guilford | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.1 | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Catholic | 5.9-4.1 | 100% | 10.9 | 0.8% |
| Sun Valley | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 11.1 | 0.0% |
| Ashbrook | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 12.3 | 0.0% |
| Westover | 5.8-4.2 | 100% | 13.9 | 0.0% |
| Glenn | 6.2-3.8 | 100% | 13.1 | 0.0% |
| South Johnston | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Watauga | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 15.1 | 0.0% |
| Ragsdale | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.2 | 0.0% |
| Felton Grove | 4.0-5.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Reynolds | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Guilford | 3.1-5.9 | 100% | 16.6 | 0.0% |
| Gray's Creek | 5.5-4.5 | 100% | 16.6 | 0.0% |
| Statesville | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.1 | 0.0% |
| Northern | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Olympic | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 19.8 | 0.0% |
| Terry Sanford | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 18.5 | 0.0% |
| Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| White Oak | 2.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.6 | 0.0% |
| South Caldwell | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Piedmont | 3.1-6.9 | 100% | 22.6 | 0.0% |
| Western Harnett | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Saint Stephens | 3.4-6.7 | 92% | 22.7 | 0.0% |
| South View | 3.1-6.9 | 84% | 22.3 | 0.0% |
| West Brunswick | 2.0-8.0 | 83% | 22.9 | 0.0% |
| West Johnston | 3.3-6.7 | 78% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Central Cabarrus | 2.7-7.3 | 72% | 21.1 | 0.0% |
| Lee County | 1.9-8.1 | 72% | 23.1 | 0.0% |
| E E Smith | 2.2-7.8 | 8% | 23.2 | 0.0% |
| Western Guilford | 3.0-7.0 | 7% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Guilford | 2.0-8.0 | 3% | 21.8 | 0.0% |
| Vance County | 1.0-9.0 | 1% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Harding University | 2.3-7.7 | 1% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Ben L. Smith | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Iredell | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Lee | 0.1-9.9 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Chapel Hill | 1.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
5A
Projected champion: Jay M Robinson · wins the title in 18% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 44 | Person | 2-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.42241 | 45 | 0.4217 |
| 45 | Huss | 3-6-0 | 98% | In | 0.42459 | 44 | 0.4157 |
| 46 | Forestview | 1-8-0 | 98% | In | 0.40736 | 48 | 0.4159 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 47 | North Lincoln | 2-7-0 | 76% | Bubble | 0.41869 | 47 | 0.4214 |
| 48 | Charles B Aycock | 2-7-0 | 72% | Bubble | 0.41974 | 46 | 0.4209 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | Richlands | 2-7-0 | 38% | Bubble | 0.40272 | 49 | 0.4051 |
| 50 | Concord | 1-8-0 | 18% | Bubble | 0.38340 | 50 | 0.3817 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 51 | Dixon | 2-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34563 | 53 | 0.3600 |
| 52 | Atkins | 1-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34998 | 51 | 0.3540 |
| 53 | North Forsyth Magnet | 1-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34788 | 52 | 0.3423 |
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Montgomery Central2917Currituck County19Montgomery Central 77% · at Montgomery Central
9Havelock4324Charles B Aycock14Havelock 97% · at Havelock
13Western Alamance2820Rockingham County20Western Alamance 72% · at Western Alamance
12Saint Pauls4121South Brunswick14Saint Pauls 96% · at Saint Pauls
15Southern Nash3618J. F. Webb16Southern Nash 90% · at Southern Nash
10Rocky Mount4123Person14Rocky Mount 95% · at Rocky Mount
14South Granville2619West Carteret21South Granville 64% · at South Granville
11Orange2822Southern Wayne20Orange 71% · at Orange
Second Round
1Southeast Alamance4116Montgomery Central14Southeast Alamance 96% · at Southeast Alamance
8Northeast Guilford249Havelock21Northeast Guilford 57% · at Northeast Guilford
4Croatan3613Western Alamance16Croatan 91% · at Croatan
5Fike3612Saint Pauls16Fike 91% · at Fike
2Northside4515Southern Nash13Northside 97% · at Northside
7Eastern Alamance2810Rocky Mount20Eastern Alamance 72% · at Eastern Alamance
3Hunt4214South Granville14Hunt 96% · at Hunt
6Seaforth3811Orange16Seaforth 92% · at Seaforth
Third Round
1Southeast Alamance258Northeast Guilford21Southeast Alamance 63% · at Southeast Alamance
4Croatan205Fike28Fike 73% · at Croatan
2Northside327Eastern Alamance18Northside 83% · at Northside
3Hunt306Seaforth19Hunt 79% · at Hunt
Fourth Round
1Southeast Alamance215Fike25Fike 60% · at Southeast Alamance
2Northside343Hunt17Northside 87% · at Northside
Regional Final
2Northside275Fike20Northside 68% · at Northside
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Parkwood3017Carson19Parkwood 77% · at Parkwood
9Oak Grove4424Huss13Oak Grove 97% · at Oak Grove
13Smoky Mountain4320East Rowan13Smoky Mountain 97% · at Smoky Mountain
12Northwest Cabarrus3721North Henderson16Northwest Cabarrus 91% · at Northwest Cabarrus
15West Henderson2118Erwin24Erwin 57% · at West Henderson
10Hickory4923Forestview11Hickory 99% · at Hickory
14North Davidson4319North Buncombe13North Davidson 97% · at North Davidson
11Enka3322North Lincoln18Enka 84% · at Enka
Second Round
1Crest4316Parkwood14Crest 97% · at Crest
8Forest Hills169Oak Grove36Oak Grove 91% · at Forest Hills
4South Point3513Smoky Mountain17South Point 88% · at South Point
5West Rowan2812Northwest Cabarrus20West Rowan 71% · at West Rowan
2Franklin3918Erwin15Franklin 94% · at Franklin
7Monroe2210Hickory23Hickory 52% · at Monroe
3Jay M Robinson3814North Davidson16Jay M Robinson 92% · at Jay M Robinson
6East Lincoln4011Enka15East Lincoln 94% · at East Lincoln
Third Round
1Crest249Oak Grove21Crest 56% · at Crest
4South Point365West Rowan16South Point 90% · at South Point
2Franklin1910Hickory29Hickory 75% · at Franklin
3Jay M Robinson286East Lincoln20Jay M Robinson 71% · at Jay M Robinson
Fourth Round
1Crest234South Point22Crest 53% · at Crest
3Jay M Robinson2510Hickory21Jay M Robinson 61% · at Jay M Robinson
Regional Final
1Crest213Jay M Robinson23Jay M Robinson 55% · at Crest
State Championship
Northside21Jay M Robinson25Jay M Robinson 60% · neutral site
Every 5A team's projection — 57 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Alamance | 9.5-0.5 | 100% | 1.4 | 8.3% |
| Crest | 8.5-1.5 | 100% | 2.4 | 10.0% |
| Northside | 9.8-0.2 | 100% | 1.7 | 21.7% |
| Franklin | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 1.8 | 0.8% |
| Jay M Robinson | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 2.6 | 17.5% |
| South Point | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 5.0% |
| West Rowan | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.6 | 0.0% |
| East Lincoln | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 4.2% |
| Hunt | 8.3-1.7 | 100% | 4.2 | 1.7% |
| Monroe | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 6.2 | 5.8% |
| Croatan | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.1 | 1.7% |
| Fike | 8.7-1.3 | 100% | 4.1 | 5.0% |
| Seaforth | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 6.3 | 0.0% |
| Forest Hills | 8.1-1.9 | 100% | 8.7 | 0.0% |
| Oak Grove | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 8.6 | 9.2% |
| Hickory | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.9 | 5.0% |
| Enka | 8.1-1.9 | 100% | 10.4 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Alamance | 6.5-2.5 | 100% | 6.9 | 2.5% |
| Northeast Guilford | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 7.8 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Cabarrus | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 12.1 | 0.0% |
| Havelock | 5.2-4.8 | 100% | 8.8 | 1.7% |
| Smoky Mountain | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 12.9 | 0.0% |
| North Davidson | 7.1-2.9 | 100% | 13.5 | 0.0% |
| Rocky Mount | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 9.9 | 0.0% |
| West Henderson | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 14.9 | 0.0% |
| Orange | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.2 | 0.0% |
| Saint Pauls | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 12.1 | 0.0% |
| Parkwood | 4.8-5.2 | 100% | 16.5 | 0.0% |
| Western Alamance | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 13.5 | 0.0% |
| South Granville | 5.7-4.3 | 100% | 14.6 | 0.0% |
| Carson | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 17.1 | 0.0% |
| Southern Nash | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.4 | 0.0% |
| Erwin | 3.8-6.2 | 100% | 17.7 | 0.0% |
| Montgomery Central | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 16.2 | 0.0% |
| Currituck County | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.7 | 0.0% |
| J. F. Webb | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 18.1 | 0.0% |
| West Carteret | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 18.5 | 0.0% |
| Rockingham County | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.3 | 0.0% |
| North Buncombe | 4.2-5.8 | 100% | 19.4 | 0.0% |
| South Brunswick | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 21.5 | 0.0% |
| East Rowan | 3.6-6.4 | 100% | 20.7 | 0.0% |
| North Henderson | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| Southern Wayne | 3.4-6.6 | 100% | 22.5 | 0.0% |
| Person | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Huss | 3.1-6.9 | 98% | 23.1 | 0.0% |
| Forestview | 2.0-8.0 | 98% | 22.5 | 0.0% |
| North Lincoln | 2.6-7.4 | 76% | 21.4 | 0.0% |
| Charles B Aycock | 2.6-7.4 | 72% | 21.9 | 0.0% |
| Richlands | 2.1-7.8 | 38% | 23.1 | 0.0% |
| Concord | 1.4-8.6 | 18% | 23.9 | 0.0% |
| Dixon | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Atkins | 1.6-8.4 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 1.4-8.6 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Gaston | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cedar Ridge | 1.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Guilford | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Douglas Byrd | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
4A
Projected champion: West Iredell · wins the title in 22% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 45 | Cummings | 1-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.38540 | 47 | 0.3921 |
| 46 | Lincoln Charter | 2-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.39206 | 45 | 0.3873 |
| 47 | Lexington | 2-7-0 | 98% | In | 0.38811 | 46 | 0.3935 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 48 | Carver | 2-7-0 | 1% | Bubble | 0.34350 | 48 | 0.3461 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | North Johnston | 2-7-0 | 1% | Out | 0.33441 | 51 | 0.3431 |
| 50 | East Henderson | 1-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.33852 | 50 | 0.3504 |
| 51 | Ashe County | 1-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.32844 | 52 | 0.3450 |
48 of 56 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Eastern Wayne3017Ledford19Eastern Wayne 78% · at Eastern Wayne
9Fairmont4424Carver13Fairmont 97% · at Fairmont
13Randleman4520Jordan-Matthews13Randleman 98% · at Randleman
12Washington2721Central Davidson20Washington 69% · at Washington
15Anson2818Southwest20Anson 71% · at Anson
10Bunn3023Cummings19Bunn 79% · at Bunn
14Roanoke Rapids2019North Pitt27North Pitt 69% · at Roanoke Rapids
11Nash Central2322Lexington22Nash Central 54% · at Nash Central
Second Round
1East Duplin3316Eastern Wayne17East Duplin 86% · at East Duplin
8Morehead219Fairmont24Fairmont 60% · at Morehead
4West Craven4213Randleman14West Craven 96% · at West Craven
5SouthWest Edgecombe3212Washington18SouthWest Edgecombe 83% · at SouthWest Edgecombe
2T Wingate Andrews4115Anson14T Wingate Andrews 95% · at T Wingate Andrews
7Southwestern Randolph2510Bunn21Southwestern Randolph 60% · at Southwestern Randolph
3Clinton2819North Pitt19Clinton 73% · at Clinton
6Reidsville4511Nash Central13Reidsville 97% · at Reidsville
Third Round
1East Duplin419Fairmont15East Duplin 95% · at East Duplin
4West Craven325SouthWest Edgecombe18West Craven 83% · at West Craven
2T Wingate Andrews427Southwestern Randolph14T Wingate Andrews 96% · at T Wingate Andrews
3Clinton166Reidsville36Reidsville 91% · at Clinton
Fourth Round
1East Duplin214West Craven25West Craven 63% · at East Duplin
2T Wingate Andrews226Reidsville23Reidsville 54% · at T Wingate Andrews
Regional Final
4West Craven226Reidsville23Reidsville 52% · at West Craven
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Newton-Conover2517Bunker Hill21Newton-Conover 61% · at Newton-Conover
9Pisgah4624Lincoln Charter12Pisgah 98% · at Pisgah
13East Burke3120East Gaston18East Burke 82% · at East Burke
12West Stanly1921Bandys28Bandys 73% · at West Stanly
15Maiden3418North Surry17Maiden 88% · at Maiden
10R-S Central3423Foard17R-S Central 86% · at R-S Central
14South Rowan3319Salisbury18South Rowan 84% · at South Rowan
11Wilkes Central4222Forbush14Wilkes Central 96% · at Wilkes Central
Second Round
1West Iredell3916Newton-Conover15West Iredell 93% · at West Iredell
8Lake Norman Charter199Pisgah29Pisgah 75% · at Lake Norman Charter
4Burns4113East Burke14Burns 95% · at Burns
5Mount Pleasant2721Bandys20Mount Pleasant 69% · at Mount Pleasant
2Tuscola3615Maiden16Tuscola 90% · at Tuscola
7Stuart W Cramer3610R-S Central16Stuart W Cramer 90% · at Stuart W Cramer
3Hibriten4314South Rowan14Hibriten 96% · at Hibriten
6West Stokes3011Wilkes Central19West Stokes 77% · at West Stokes
Third Round
1West Iredell389Pisgah16West Iredell 93% · at West Iredell
4Burns315Mount Pleasant18Burns 80% · at Burns
2Tuscola257Stuart W Cramer21Tuscola 63% · at Tuscola
3Hibriten316West Stokes18Hibriten 81% · at Hibriten
Fourth Round
1West Iredell274Burns20West Iredell 70% · at West Iredell
2Tuscola223Hibriten22Hibriten 50% · at Tuscola
Regional Final
1West Iredell223Hibriten22West Iredell 51% · at West Iredell
State Championship
West Iredell23Reidsville22West Iredell 54% · neutral site
Every 4A team's projection — 56 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Iredell | 9.9-0.1 | 100% | 1.2 | 22.5% |
| East Duplin | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 4.2% |
| Tuscola | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.4 | 14.2% |
| Hibriten | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.4 | 15.0% |
| T Wingate Andrews | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.1 | 12.5% |
| Burns | 7.3-2.7 | 100% | 4.3 | 4.2% |
| Clinton | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 3.5 | 0.0% |
| West Craven | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 3.9 | 9.2% |
| Mount Pleasant | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 5.6 | 0.0% |
| SouthWest Edgecombe | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.2 | 0.0% |
| Reidsville | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.3 | 12.5% |
| West Stokes | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.6 | 2.5% |
| Stuart W Cramer | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 3.3% |
| Lake Norman Charter | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| Pisgah | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.3 | 0.0% |
| R-S Central | 6.7-3.3 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Wilkes Central | 7.5-2.5 | 100% | 10.2 | 0.0% |
| West Stanly | 4.2-5.8 | 100% | 12.2 | 0.0% |
| Southwestern Randolph | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.1 | 0.0% |
| Morehead | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| East Burke | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.4 | 0.0% |
| South Rowan | 5.5-4.5 | 100% | 13.5 | 0.0% |
| Fairmont | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 9.3 | 0.0% |
| Maiden | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 15.7 | 0.0% |
| Newton-Conover | 4.5-5.5 | 100% | 15.9 | 0.0% |
| Bunker Hill | 5.1-4.9 | 100% | 16.4 | 0.0% |
| Bunn | 5.6-4.4 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Nash Central | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 11.8 | 0.0% |
| North Surry | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| Washington | 3.7-6.3 | 100% | 12.6 | 0.0% |
| Randleman | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 12.8 | 0.0% |
| Salisbury | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.6 | 0.0% |
| Roanoke Rapids | 4.4-5.6 | 100% | 13.7 | 0.0% |
| East Gaston | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 19.8 | 0.0% |
| Anson | 4.2-5.8 | 100% | 16.6 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Wayne | 5.1-3.9 | 100% | 16.6 | 0.0% |
| Ledford | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 17.4 | 0.0% |
| Southwest | 4.2-5.8 | 100% | 17.6 | 0.0% |
| North Pitt | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 17.6 | 0.0% |
| Bandys | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| Forbush | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 22.1 | 0.0% |
| Foard | 2.4-7.6 | 100% | 22.5 | 0.0% |
| Jordan-Matthews | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 21.7 | 0.0% |
| Central Davidson | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 22.6 | 0.0% |
| Cummings | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.9 | 0.0% |
| Lincoln Charter | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.9 | 0.0% |
| Lexington | 2.5-7.5 | 98% | 22.7 | 0.0% |
| Carver | 2.6-7.4 | 1% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| North Johnston | 2.0-8.0 | 1% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| East Henderson | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Ashe County | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Brevard | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Red Springs | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| First Flight | 0.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Carrboro | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Lenoir | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
3A
Projected champion: Shelby · wins the title in 40% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 45 | Heide Trask | 2-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.34625 | 44 | 0.3387 |
| 46 | Patton | 1-8-0 | 98% | In | 0.32093 | 48 | 0.3285 |
| 47 | Bessemer City | 1-8-0 | 98% | In | 0.33037 | 46 | 0.3265 |
| On the bubble | |||||||
| 48 | Draughn | 0-9-0 | 59% | Bubble | 0.32602 | 47 | 0.3210 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| 49 | Bartlett Yancey | 1-8-0 | 42% | Bubble | 0.30692 | 50 | 0.3077 |
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 50 | Trinity | 1-8-0 | 2% | Out | 0.31758 | 49 | 0.3072 |
| 51 | Madison | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.30421 | 51 | 0.3066 |
| 52 | Goldsboro | 0-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.27096 | 52 | 0.2932 |
48 of 55 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Wake Preparatory Academy1717Greene Central34Greene Central 86% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
9Pasquotank County4524Heide Trask13Pasquotank County 97% · at Pasquotank County
13Farmville Central3120Ayden-Grifton19Farmville Central 80% · at Farmville Central
12Louisburg Magnet4421North Moore13Louisburg Magnet 97% · at Louisburg Magnet
15Princeton2718Kinston20Princeton 69% · at Princeton
10Providence Grove4523South Lenoir13Providence Grove 98% · at Providence Grove
14South Columbus2319Pender22South Columbus 53% · at South Columbus
11Northwood4822McMichael12Northwood 98% · at Northwood
Second Round
1Northeastern3417Greene Central17Northeastern 87% · at Northeastern
8Wallace-Rose Hill349Pasquotank County17Wallace-Rose Hill 87% · at Wallace-Rose Hill
4James Kenan4013Farmville Central15James Kenan 94% · at James Kenan
5Eastern Randolph4212Louisburg Magnet14Eastern Randolph 96% · at Eastern Randolph
2Whiteville2215Princeton22Whiteville 50% · at Whiteville
7Hertford County3310Providence Grove18Hertford County 84% · at Hertford County
3Midway3414South Columbus17Midway 87% · at Midway
6Martin County3511Northwood17Martin County 89% · at Martin County
Third Round
1Northeastern298Wallace-Rose Hill19Northeastern 76% · at Northeastern
4James Kenan255Eastern Randolph21James Kenan 62% · at James Kenan
2Whiteville217Hertford County23Hertford County 56% · at Whiteville
3Midway246Martin County21Midway 60% · at Midway
Fourth Round
1Northeastern254James Kenan21Northeastern 62% · at Northeastern
3Midway237Hertford County22Midway 54% · at Midway
Regional Final
1Northeastern313Midway18Northeastern 81% · at Northeastern
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16North Wilkes3317Pine Lake Preparatory18North Wilkes 85% · at North Wilkes
9Mountain Heritage4924Draughn11Mountain Heritage 99% · at Mountain Heritage
13Owen2720Wheatmore20Owen 69% · at Owen
12West Davidson4321East Davidson14West Davidson 96% · at West Davidson
15East Surry2818West Lincoln20East Surry 72% · at East Surry
10Union Academy4323Bessemer City14Union Academy 97% · at Union Academy
14East Rutherford3319Polk County18East Rutherford 85% · at East Rutherford
11West Wilkes4522Patton13West Wilkes 97% · at West Wilkes
Second Round
1North Stanly4316North Wilkes14North Stanly 97% · at North Stanly
8Lincolnton379Mountain Heritage16Lincolnton 91% · at Lincolnton
4Walkertown4113Owen14Walkertown 95% · at Walkertown
5Thomasville3412West Davidson17Thomasville 87% · at Thomasville
2Shelby4615East Surry13Shelby 98% · at Shelby
7Chase2710Union Academy20Chase 67% · at Chase
3Hendersonville3714East Rutherford16Hendersonville 92% · at Hendersonville
6Mount Airy3411West Wilkes17Mount Airy 87% · at Mount Airy
Third Round
1North Stanly228Lincolnton23Lincolnton 52% · at North Stanly
4Walkertown225Thomasville23Thomasville 54% · at Walkertown
2Shelby457Chase13Shelby 98% · at Shelby
3Hendersonville246Mount Airy21Hendersonville 57% · at Hendersonville
Fourth Round
5Thomasville208Lincolnton28Lincolnton 71% · at Thomasville
2Shelby363Hendersonville16Shelby 90% · at Shelby
Regional Final
2Shelby308Lincolnton19Shelby 78% · at Shelby
State Championship
Northeastern19Shelby28Shelby 74% · neutral site
Every 3A team's projection — 55 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Stanly | 9.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 10.8% |
| Northeastern | 9.9-1.1 | 100% | 1.2 | 16.7% |
| Whiteville | 9.8-0.2 | 100% | 2.2 | 0.0% |
| Shelby | 8.7-1.3 | 100% | 2.3 | 40.0% |
| Midway | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.8 | 1.7% |
| Hendersonville | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.7 | 1.7% |
| James Kenan | 7.6-1.4 | 100% | 4.2 | 6.7% |
| Eastern Randolph | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.6 | 3.3% |
| Walkertown | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 4.1 | 1.7% |
| Thomasville | 8.8-1.2 | 100% | 5.2 | 5.0% |
| Mount Airy | 6.9-3.1 | 100% | 6.2 | 0.8% |
| Martin County | 7.5-3.5 | 100% | 6.9 | 0.8% |
| Hertford County | 6.5-3.5 | 100% | 7.1 | 4.2% |
| Chase | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.8 | 0.0% |
| Wallace-Rose Hill | 5.4-3.6 | 100% | 8.8 | 2.5% |
| Lincolnton | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.1 | 2.5% |
| Mountain Heritage | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 9.3 | 0.0% |
| Pasquotank County | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 9.7 | 0.0% |
| Union Academy | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.2 | 0.0% |
| Providence Grove | 6.2-3.8 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| West Wilkes | 6.6-3.4 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.0% |
| Northwood | 5.5-4.5 | 100% | 11.2 | 0.0% |
| Louisburg Magnet | 7.5-2.5 | 100% | 11.6 | 0.0% |
| West Davidson | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.4 | 0.0% |
| Farmville Central | 5.6-4.4 | 100% | 12.8 | 0.0% |
| South Columbus | 6.2-3.8 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Princeton | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.3 | 1.7% |
| Wake Preparatory Academy | 5.5-4.5 | 100% | 16.1 | 0.0% |
| Greene Central | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 16.5 | 0.0% |
| Owen | 5.2-4.8 | 100% | 13.5 | 0.0% |
| East Rutherford | 3.3-6.7 | 100% | 14.5 | 0.0% |
| East Surry | 4.1-5.9 | 100% | 14.8 | 0.0% |
| North Wilkes | 4.4-5.6 | 100% | 15.1 | 0.0% |
| Kinston | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Pender | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Pine Lake Preparatory | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| West Lincoln | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.1 | 0.0% |
| Polk County | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.8 | 0.0% |
| Wheatmore | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.2 | 0.0% |
| East Davidson | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.9 | 0.0% |
| Ayden-Grifton | 2.4-7.6 | 100% | 20.5 | 0.0% |
| North Moore | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 20.6 | 0.0% |
| McMichael | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| South Lenoir | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.6 | 0.0% |
| Heide Trask | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.5 | 0.0% |
| Patton | 1.0-9.0 | 98% | 22.6 | 0.0% |
| Bessemer City | 1.0-9.0 | 98% | 23.3 | 0.0% |
| Draughn | 0.0-10.0 | 59% | 23.9 | 0.0% |
| Bartlett Yancey | 1.4-8.6 | 42% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Trinity | 1.0-9.0 | 2% | 22.7 | 0.0% |
| Madison | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Goldsboro | 0.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Beddingfield | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| West Bladen | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Surry Central | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
2A
Projected champion: Tarboro · wins the title in 42% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Rosewood4117Pamlico County14Rosewood 96% · at Rosewood
13Bertie2620Northampton County20Bertie 65% · at Bertie
12Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy3021Lejeune19Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy 77% · at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy
15Hobbton3118Perquimans County18Hobbton 81% · at Hobbton
10Camden County3823American Leadership Academy - Johnston16Camden County 93% · at Camden County
14East Carteret2219Union23Union 52% · at East Carteret
11West Columbus4822Triangle Math and Science Academy12West Columbus 98% · at West Columbus
Second Round
1Tarboro4916Rosewood11Tarboro 99% · at Tarboro
8Gates County319North Duplin Jr Sr18Gates County 81% · at Gates County
4Manteo3313Bertie18Manteo 85% · at Manteo
5Lakewood3812Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy16Lakewood 93% · at Lakewood
2Holmes4415Hobbton13Holmes 97% · at Holmes
7Southside2010Camden County26Camden County 65% · at Southside
3Warren County4919Union11Warren County 99% · at Warren County
6East Bladen3211West Columbus18East Bladen 84% · at East Bladen
Third Round
1Tarboro468Gates County13Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
4Manteo225Lakewood23Lakewood 53% · at Manteo
2Holmes4610Camden County12Holmes 98% · at Holmes
3Warren County436East Bladen14Warren County 96% · at Warren County
Fourth Round
1Tarboro475Lakewood12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
2Holmes233Warren County22Holmes 53% · at Holmes
Regional Final
1Tarboro312Holmes19Tarboro 79% · at Tarboro
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Langtree Charter Academy2217South Stanly23South Stanly 54% · at Langtree Charter Academy
13South Stokes2420Bradford Preparatory21South Stokes 58% · at South Stokes
12Cherryville4721Elkin12Cherryville 98% · at Cherryville
15Swain County2918Avery County19Swain County 76% · at Swain County
10Cherokee4623Highland Tech12Cherokee 98% · at Cherokee
14Albemarle2719Bishop McGuinness20Albemarle 70% · at Albemarle
11Mountain Island Charter4422Hayesville13Mountain Island Charter 97% · at Mountain Island Charter
Second Round
1Corvian Community4917South Stanly11Corvian Community 99% · at Corvian Community
8Mitchell209East Wilkes27East Wilkes 71% · at Mitchell
4Murphy4513South Stokes13Murphy 98% · at Murphy
5Community School of Davidson3512Cherryville17Community School of Davidson 88% · at Community School of Davidson
2Starmount4515Swain County13Starmount 97% · at Starmount
7Christ the King3310Cherokee17Christ the King 86% · at Christ the King
3North Rowan4514Albemarle13North Rowan 97% · at North Rowan
6Alleghany3111Mountain Island Charter18Alleghany 81% · at Alleghany
Third Round
1Corvian Community309East Wilkes19Corvian Community 79% · at Corvian Community
4Murphy215Community School of Davidson25Community School of Davidson 63% · at Murphy
2Starmount327Christ the King18Starmount 84% · at Starmount
3North Rowan276Alleghany20North Rowan 68% · at North Rowan
Fourth Round
1Corvian Community305Community School of Davidson19Corvian Community 78% · at Corvian Community
2Starmount283North Rowan19Starmount 73% · at Starmount
Regional Final
1Corvian Community272Starmount20Corvian Community 68% · at Corvian Community
State Championship
Corvian Community20Tarboro27Tarboro 70% · neutral site
Every 2A team's projection — 46 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corvian Community | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 28.3% |
| Starmount | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 9.2% |
| Tarboro | 8.9-1.1 | 100% | 1.2 | 41.7% |
| Holmes | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.9 | 8.3% |
| Warren County | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.9 | 7.5% |
| North Rowan | 7.8-2.2 | 100% | 3.5 | 0.8% |
| Murphy | 7.9-2.1 | 100% | 4.2 | 0.0% |
| Community School of Davidson | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.6 | 2.5% |
| Alleghany | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.7 | 0.0% |
| Manteo | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.7 | 0.0% |
| Lakewood | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 4.5 | 0.0% |
| East Bladen | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.8 | 0.0% |
| Christ the King | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.9 | 0.8% |
| Mitchell | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| East Wilkes | 5.5-4.5 | 100% | 9.4 | 0.8% |
| Cherokee | 6.1-3.9 | 100% | 9.4 | 0.0% |
| Mountain Island Charter | 7.2-2.8 | 100% | 9.7 | 0.0% |
| Southside | 6.8-3.2 | 100% | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| Cherryville | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.7 | 0.0% |
| Gates County | 4.7-5.3 | 100% | 8.7 | 0.0% |
| North Duplin Jr Sr | 5.3-3.7 | 100% | 8.6 | 0.0% |
| Camden County | 4.3-5.7 | 100% | 10.7 | 0.0% |
| South Stokes | 5.4-4.6 | 100% | 13.3 | 0.0% |
| West Columbus | 3.6-5.4 | 100% | 11.3 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Bertie | 2.5-7.5 | 100% | 12.6 | 0.0% |
| Albemarle | 3.5-6.5 | 100% | 13.8 | 0.0% |
| East Carteret | 3.6-6.4 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Hobbton | 2.7-7.3 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Rosewood | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.2 | 0.0% |
| Pamlico County | 3.4-6.6 | 100% | 16.1 | 0.0% |
| Perquimans County | 2.5-7.5 | 100% | 16.7 | 0.0% |
| Swain County | 2.1-7.9 | 100% | 15.6 | 0.0% |
| Langtree Charter Academy | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.4 | 0.0% |
| South Stanly | 2.5-7.5 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Avery County | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.4 | 0.0% |
| Union | 3.4-6.6 | 100% | 18.6 | 0.0% |
| Bishop McGuinness | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.5 | 0.0% |
| Northampton County | 1.8-8.2 | 100% | 20.4 | 0.0% |
| Bradford Preparatory | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 20.1 | 0.0% |
| Lejeune | 2.2-6.8 | 100% | 20.5 | 0.0% |
| Elkin | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.3 | 0.0% |
| Triangle Math and Science Academy | 2.0-6.0 | 100% | 21.6 | 0.0% |
| Hayesville | 1.4-7.6 | 100% | 21.5 | 0.0% |
| American Leadership Academy - Johnston | 1.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.9 | 0.0% |
| Highland Tech | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
1A
Projected champion: Northside · wins the title in 72% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 26 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Projected bracket
26 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-3
8KIPP Pride209Washington County28Washington County 73% · at KIPP Pride
4Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy4913Jones11Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 99% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy
5Rocky Mount Preparatory4112Weldon STEM15Rocky Mount Preparatory 95% · at Rocky Mount Preparatory
7Columbia2210Bear Grass Charter22Bear Grass Charter 50% · at Columbia
6North East Carolina Prep4611Mattamuskeet13North East Carolina Prep 98% · at North East Carolina Prep
Second Round
1Northside479Washington County12Northside 98% · at Northside
4Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy275Rocky Mount Preparatory20Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 69% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy
2Hobgood Charter3410Bear Grass Charter17Hobgood Charter 87% · at Hobgood Charter
3North Edgecombe306North East Carolina Prep19North Edgecombe 77% · at North Edgecombe
Third Round
1Northside464Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy12Northside 98% · at Northside
2Hobgood Charter213North Edgecombe25North Edgecombe 60% · at Hobgood Charter
Regional Final
1Northside453North Edgecombe13Northside 98% · at Northside
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-3
8Rosman409Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy15Rosman 94% · at Rosman
4Sallie B Howard4113North Stokes15Sallie B Howard 95% · at Sallie B Howard
5Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad3512Andrews17Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 89% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad
7South Davidson Middle and3810College Prep and Leadership Academy16South Davidson Middle and 92% · at South Davidson Middle and
6East Columbus Junior-Senior2211Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy23Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 53% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior
Second Round
1Chatham Central268Rosman20Chatham Central 65% · at Chatham Central
4Sallie B Howard215Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad24Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 60% · at Sallie B Howard
2Wilson Preparatory Academy437South Davidson Middle and14Wilson Preparatory Academy 96% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
3Robbinsville4411Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy13Robbinsville 97% · at Robbinsville
Third Round
1Chatham Central255Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad21Chatham Central 63% · at Chatham Central
2Wilson Preparatory Academy233Robbinsville22Wilson Preparatory Academy 52% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
Regional Final
1Chatham Central162Wilson Preparatory Academy38Wilson Preparatory Academy 93% · at Chatham Central
State Championship
Northside25Wilson Preparatory Academy21Northside 62% · neutral site
Every 1A team's projection — 26 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 72.5% |
| Chatham Central | 9.7-0.3 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| Wilson Preparatory Academy | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 20.0% |
| Hobgood Charter | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| North Edgecombe | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Robbinsville | 4.9-5.1 | 100% | 3.8 | 6.7% |
| Sallie B Howard | 5.8-3.2 | 100% | 3.6 | 0.8% |
| Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad | 5.6-4.4 | 100% | 5.8 | 0.0% |
| East Columbus Junior-Senior | 4.2-5.8 | 100% | 5.7 | 0.0% |
| South Davidson Middle and | 6.3-3.7 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Rosman | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 5.7 | 0.0% |
| Rocky Mount Preparatory | 4.6-5.4 | 100% | 5.2 | 0.0% |
| North East Carolina Prep | 4.4-5.6 | 100% | 5.5 | 0.0% |
| Columbia | 4.6-5.4 | 100% | 6.5 | 0.0% |
| KIPP Pride | 3.2-6.8 | 100% | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| Washington County | 2.2-7.8 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Bear Grass Charter | 2.4-7.6 | 100% | 9.7 | 0.0% |
| Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 9.6 | 0.0% |
| College Prep and Leadership Academy | 1.6-7.4 | 100% | 9.8 | 0.0% |
| Mattamuskeet | 0.0-8.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy | 1.0-8.0 | 100% | 11.5 | 0.0% |
| Andrews | 0.6-8.4 | 100% | 11.4 | 0.0% |
| North Stokes | 0.4-9.6 | 100% | 12.8 | 0.0% |
| Weldon STEM | 0.1-8.9 | 100% | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Jones | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 12.6 | 0.0% |