Work in progress. This report is in active development.
Ratings and projections will change as the system is refined, and some
sections are not yet complete.
Ratings basis: 4843 2026 results, seeded with 2025Home field: +1.1 ptsGenerated October 31, 2026
Our preliminary, unofficial final regular-season edition. A few of Friday's games had not been reported when it was built; the simulation plays those out, and this edition is updated as their results come in. The NCHSAA announces the official brackets on Saturday, Oct. 31.
Programs That Ended Their Season
First Flight (Kill Devil Hills) stopped on September 18 at 0-4: not enough players to continue the varsity season safely. The Outer Banks Voice
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy (Mooresboro) stopped on September 23 at 1-3: a large number of serious injuries and too few players remaining. WBTV
West Bladen (Bladenboro) stopped on September 24 at 0-5: not enough healthy players to take the field safely. WITN
Under NCHSAA rules, a school that stops mid-season forfeits each conference game it has left, and those count as wins for the opponents. Its other remaining games are no contest and count for no one.
Title races and the RPI bubble → the conference title games still to play and the teams fighting for the last playoff spots, updated each week until the regular season ends.
Scoring tables are as played. Adjusted tables account for the opponent, so ten points conceded to a strong offense outranks a shutout of a weak one — the two disagree on purpose.
The official NCHSAA RPI standings, as published by the association on October 31, 2026 (nchsaa.org, powered by MaxPreps): 0.4 win percentage, 0.4 opponents' win percentage, 0.2 opponents' opponents'. Records are NCHSAA's, which can differ from ours where the association has ruled on a forfeit.
8A — 32 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Hough
10-0-0
0.77696
132.1
25.4
2
Chambers
9-1-0
0.71551
118.6
24.3
3
Millbrook
9-0-1
0.71332
124.5
23.2
4
Mallard Creek
8-2-0
0.69461
116.4
33.7
5
Apex Friendship
10-0-0
0.68203
98.4
7.3
6
Hoggard
9-1-0
0.67583
115.3
17.5
7
West Forsyth
8-2-0
0.66243
116.6
25.4
8
Rolesville
7-2-1
0.63639
120.0
26.3
9
Myers Park
7-3-0
0.63611
106.1
26.7
10
Pinecrest
7-3-0
0.63033
101.8
23.9
11
West Charlotte
6-4-0
0.61574
99.4
32.9
12
Palisades
8-2-0
0.60987
104.0
15.5
13
Green Hope
8-2-0
0.59489
91.3
2.4
14
Jordan
7-3-0
0.58619
94.6
11.8
15
Ardrey Kell
7-3-0
0.57644
95.8
15.4
16
Leesville Road
6-4-0
0.56654
99.7
22.5
17
Panther Creek
6-4-0
0.56117
86.4
14.6
18
Laney
5-5-0
0.55650
91.4
23.3
19
Hoke County
5-5-0
0.54611
90.1
23.7
20
Providence
5-5-0
0.52528
92.4
19.9
21
Broughton
5-5-0
0.50422
85.1
20.9
22
Wakefield
4-6-0
0.47898
78.9
23.7
23
South Mecklenburg
4-6-0
0.47319
80.1
16.5
24
Willow Spring
3-7-0
0.44869
77.3
16.8
25
Enloe
4-6-0
0.43711
80.6
20.0
26
Northwest Guilford
2-8-0
0.41876
74.3
26.4
27
Apex
3-7-0
0.41050
80.4
10.0
28
East Mecklenburg
4-6-0
0.40356
73.6
8.9
29
Corinth Holders
2-8-0
0.39222
81.1
20.7
30
Athens Drive
2-8-0
0.36625
69.4
19.2
31
Garinger
2-8-0
0.33672
51.8
9.1
32
Green Level
1-9-0
0.32269
63.6
13.0
7A — 60 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Weddington
10-0-0
0.76408
127.4
24.8
2
Grimsley
10-0-0
0.75387
124.5
19.4
3
Lake Norman
10-0-0
0.71111
121.4
17.5
4
Cleveland
9-1-0
0.71100
118.6
27.2
5
Garner
8-2-0
0.68978
114.2
29.4
6
Reagan
8-2-0
0.68906
116.7
25.9
7
A L Brown
10-0-0
0.67267
104.8
8.8
8
Marvin Ridge
9-1-0
0.66653
107.5
17.3
9
Clayton
8-2-0
0.66246
115.7
21.4
10
Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
9-1-0
0.65865
106.2
2.9
11
New Bern
7-3-0
0.65352
100.3
23.5
12
Wake Forest
8-2-0
0.65081
110.0
14.8
13
Cardinal Gibbons
7-3-0
0.63824
112.9
24.5
14
Page
9-1-0
0.63506
107.8
6.3
15
East Forsyth
7-3-0
0.62840
111.0
23.6
16
Cape Fear
8-2-0
0.61333
96.1
7.9
17
D H Conley
6-4-0
0.60976
87.6
19.7
18
Southeast Raleigh
7-3-0
0.60683
113.4
23.8
19
Hickory Ridge
8-2-0
0.60200
108.2
8.7
20
Davie County
6-4-0
0.59378
97.8
23.3
21
Hillside
7-3-0
0.57786
80.2
2.8
22
Mooresville
5-5-0
0.57333
102.6
28.6
23
Ashley
6-4-0
0.55328
85.6
17.8
24
West Cabarrus
5-5-0
0.54200
82.4
18.2
25
Jack Britt
5-5-0
0.52633
87.9
22.0
26
Holly Springs
5-5-0
0.52393
85.7
16.6
27
South Central
4-6-0
0.52258
88.2
20.6
28
Heritage
5-5-0
0.51961
81.3
16.7
29
Richmond
4-6-0
0.50778
102.0
27.1
30
Butler
4-6-0
0.50482
92.9
28.9
31
Fuquay-Varina
4-6-0
0.50033
90.0
25.8
32
Topsail
4-6-0
0.49715
80.9
19.7
33
North Brunswick
5-5-0
0.48644
78.8
11.5
34
Hopewell
5-5-0
0.47711
81.7
15.3
35
Sanderson
5-5-0
0.47489
82.5
7.6
36
Porter Ridge
3-7-0
0.46519
84.8
25.5
37
Independence
2-8-0
0.44853
86.7
30.1
38
Overhills
4-6-0
0.44700
82.5
14.1
39
Ballantyne Ridge
4-6-0
0.43321
76.4
9.8
40
R J Reynolds
4-6-0
0.43206
78.8
10.9
41
Pine Forest
3-7-0
0.42656
74.8
18.8
42
South Garner
3-7-0
0.42656
84.9
19.6
43
Parkland
3-7-0
0.41206
67.0
10.1
44
New Hanover
2-8-0
0.41125
74.5
18.6
45
South Iredell
2-8-0
0.39578
74.2
21.8
46
Lumberton
2-8-0
0.39422
64.4
10.6
47
Chapel Hill
3-7-0
0.39384
46.2
-2.5
48
East Wake
3-7-0
0.39215
70.0
8.9
49
North Mecklenburg
3-7-0
0.38697
85.5
17.1
50
Purnell Swett
3-7-0
0.37833
67.1
1.1
51
Cary
3-7-0
0.37394
66.8
12.0
52
Southwest Guilford
2-8-0
0.37133
60.4
11.2
53
West Mecklenburg
2-8-0
0.37032
71.0
13.4
54
Cuthbertson
1-9-0
0.36275
66.7
21.1
55
Riverside
2-8-0
0.36014
56.7
2.3
56
Cox Mill
2-8-0
0.34933
65.5
10.6
57
McDowell
1-9-0
0.33919
53.5
3.7
58
Smithfield-Selma
0-10-0
0.32383
57.3
22.8
59
Knightdale
1-9-0
0.32302
59.6
10.2
60
Rocky River
0-10-0
0.24422
49.9
9.5
6A — 58 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Junius H Rose
10-0-0
0.77494
116.7
23.6
2
Asheville
9-1-0
0.72742
100.1
15.6
3
Jacksonville
7-2-0
0.69647
113.7
19.0
4
Northern Nash
8-2-0
0.69008
113.5
17.5
5
Scotland
9-1-0
0.68619
107.6
14.0
6
Union Pines
9-1-0
0.68315
99.3
5.2
7
Southern Alamance
8-2-0
0.67483
98.5
12.3
8
Roberson
8-2-0
0.66492
108.9
11.4
9
Williams
6-2-0
0.66395
91.5
14.1
10
Middle Creek
8-2-0
0.66186
111.1
20.3
11
Asheboro
9-1-0
0.65316
90.4
5.2
12
Seventy-First
9-1-0
0.64111
104.2
8.4
13
Triton
9-1-0
0.64081
85.1
1.7
14
Kings Mountain
7-3-0
0.61297
105.5
15.6
15
Mount Tabor
6-4-0
0.59519
97.2
21.5
16
Harnett Central
8-2-0
0.59359
89.2
-0.8
17
Franklinton
8-2-0
0.58725
89.2
-0.0
18
Alexander Central
8-2-0
0.58333
88.1
3.8
19
Freedom
8-2-0
0.58156
84.5
-1.6
20
Swansboro
7-3-0
0.58096
77.1
-0.4
21
Dudley
6-4-0
0.55785
93.5
17.8
22
Sun Valley
5-5-0
0.55475
92.5
26.9
23
Charlotte Catholic
6-4-0
0.54874
94.4
21.3
24
Northern Guilford
6-4-0
0.54813
89.6
15.7
25
Ashbrook
5-5-0
0.54378
94.2
16.9
26
Westover
6-4-0
0.53444
85.8
8.9
27
Watauga
5-5-0
0.51378
83.2
7.0
28
Glenn
6-4-0
0.51339
80.9
7.9
29
Ragsdale
5-5-0
0.50172
85.0
10.0
30
Gray's Creek
6-4-0
0.49422
75.7
6.0
31
Reynolds
3-7-0
0.48031
77.5
14.5
32
Statesville
4-6-0
0.46889
84.1
15.4
33
South Johnston
4-6-0
0.46711
71.5
4.5
34
Felton Grove
4-6-0
0.46191
66.7
7.3
35
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
5-5-0
0.45733
68.4
9.4
36
Northern
5-5-0
0.45683
56.1
-8.9
37
Eastern Guilford
3-6-0
0.45412
76.2
10.6
38
Olympic
4-6-0
0.44800
76.8
13.8
39
West Johnston
4-6-0
0.44359
69.1
6.6
40
Central Cabarrus
3-7-0
0.43022
75.0
11.3
41
White Oak
2-7-0
0.42683
65.9
17.1
42
Terry Sanford
3-7-0
0.42222
74.2
13.7
43
South Caldwell
3-7-0
0.42000
58.1
7.8
44
Piedmont
3-7-0
0.41831
75.3
14.4
45
Western Harnett
4-6-0
0.41408
53.8
-6.0
46
South View
3-7-0
0.41222
78.8
12.4
47
Saint Stephens
3-7-0
0.41200
75.7
4.3
48
Lee County
2-8-0
0.41137
66.5
8.6
49
Western Guilford
3-7-0
0.40596
56.5
7.9
50
West Brunswick
2-8-0
0.40512
71.8
11.8
51
Southeast Guilford
3-7-0
0.39314
67.8
6.6
52
Vance County
1-9-0
0.37821
58.1
14.2
53
E E Smith
2-8-0
0.36069
73.7
8.2
54
Harding University
2-8-0
0.36032
66.4
12.3
55
Ben L. Smith
1-9-0
0.32594
52.8
10.0
56
North Iredell
0-10-0
0.30644
41.3
16.3
57
Southern Lee
0-10-0
0.30426
42.3
10.0
58
East Chapel Hill
1-8-0
0.29128
31.5
-11.6
5A — 57 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Southeast Alamance
10-0-0
0.74416
98.6
8.5
2
Crest
9-1-0
0.73978
110.4
20.8
3
Northside
10-0-0
0.72592
106.6
11.8
4
Franklin
10-0-0
0.71464
99.4
4.3
5
Jay M Robinson
10-0-0
0.70850
111.3
5.2
6
South Point
9-1-0
0.70528
107.6
17.6
7
Hunt
9-1-0
0.70053
94.6
13.7
8
Monroe
8-2-0
0.67422
107.4
16.1
9
West Rowan
8-2-0
0.66978
92.4
8.1
10
East Lincoln
9-1-0
0.66689
104.5
11.6
11
Croatan
9-1-0
0.66289
94.2
3.1
12
Seaforth
9-1-0
0.64117
82.4
-12.9
13
Oak Grove
8-2-0
0.63764
108.9
9.8
14
Hickory
7-3-0
0.62667
107.7
14.2
15
Forest Hills
8-2-0
0.62614
86.4
5.9
16
Fike
8-2-0
0.62222
101.1
4.6
17
Enka
8-2-0
0.61791
83.1
2.4
18
Eastern Alamance
7-2-0
0.61778
98.8
9.2
19
Northwest Cabarrus
7-3-0
0.59511
84.5
8.2
20
Smoky Mountain
8-2-0
0.59217
93.5
-2.3
21
Havelock
5-5-0
0.58689
94.3
18.0
22
North Davidson
7-3-0
0.57306
89.6
6.8
23
Rocky Mount
6-4-0
0.56233
87.5
10.4
24
Orange
6-4-0
0.53706
67.8
-8.1
25
West Henderson
5-5-0
0.52936
74.0
6.1
26
Saint Pauls
7-3-0
0.52578
85.2
-0.8
27
Parkwood
5-5-0
0.52523
81.4
13.9
28
South Granville
6-4-0
0.51907
68.6
-7.7
29
Western Alamance
5-5-0
0.51632
77.8
10.5
30
Erwin
4-6-0
0.50514
77.3
10.5
31
Montgomery Central
5-5-0
0.50423
74.6
7.4
32
Southern Nash
4-6-0
0.50245
75.8
15.5
33
West Carteret
4-6-0
0.49178
65.8
10.0
34
Carson
4-6-0
0.47836
71.9
5.6
35
Currituck County
4-6-0
0.47280
66.6
1.6
36
Rockingham County
4-6-0
0.46800
70.2
-2.8
37
J. F. Webb
4-6-0
0.45833
59.8
-11.8
38
Southern Wayne
4-6-0
0.45545
61.6
4.7
39
South Brunswick
5-5-0
0.45534
63.1
-9.3
40
East Rowan
4-6-0
0.45467
65.9
3.2
41
North Buncombe
4-6-0
0.44217
64.9
0.4
42
North Lincoln
3-7-0
0.43644
71.5
13.6
43
North Henderson
2-8-0
0.43156
67.0
9.1
44
Person
2-8-0
0.42256
66.6
12.4
45
Forestview
2-8-0
0.41714
66.2
14.7
46
Huss
3-7-0
0.40898
77.9
11.5
47
Richlands
2-8-0
0.40205
61.2
8.6
48
Charles B Aycock
2-8-0
0.39617
64.5
7.6
49
Concord
1-9-0
0.36578
58.3
8.0
50
Atkins
2-8-0
0.36572
49.6
7.3
51
Dixon
2-8-0
0.36431
65.0
3.3
52
Northeast Guilford
1-9-0
0.36144
84.5
17.4
53
North Forsyth Magnet
1-9-0
0.32771
48.8
7.4
54
North Gaston
0-10-0
0.29378
36.6
13.0
55
Southern Guilford
1-9-0
0.28910
33.6
6.9
56
Cedar Ridge
1-7-0
0.28555
20.0
-17.3
57
Douglas Byrd
0-10-0
0.26517
37.4
5.3
4A — 55 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
East Duplin
9-1-0
0.67714
89.3
1.9
2
Hibriten
10-0-0
0.67035
97.7
-7.4
3
Tuscola
9-1-0
0.66958
96.8
1.2
4
West Iredell
9-1-0
0.65756
95.5
6.9
5
T Wingate Andrews
9-1-0
0.63989
92.5
0.9
6
Clinton
7-3-0
0.63179
77.2
-2.8
7
West Craven
8-2-0
0.62240
95.0
3.5
8
Burns
7-3-0
0.61067
92.2
5.3
9
Mount Pleasant
7-3-0
0.60844
81.5
9.7
10
West Stokes
8-2-0
0.60631
86.6
1.4
11
Reidsville
7-3-0
0.59914
94.2
-0.9
12
SouthWest Edgecombe
7-3-0
0.59523
82.3
4.4
13
Stuart W Cramer
8-2-0
0.58822
94.6
-6.2
14
Lake Norman Charter
7-3-0
0.58022
68.9
-5.8
15
R-S Central
7-3-0
0.56670
77.4
-3.4
16
Pisgah
6-4-0
0.56078
78.9
4.6
17
South Rowan
6-4-0
0.53800
72.2
-2.1
18
Wilkes Central
7-3-0
0.53781
78.2
-15.0
19
Morehead
7-3-0
0.53747
63.4
-10.6
20
Bunker Hill
6-4-0
0.52956
76.7
8.5
21
Southwestern Randolph
7-3-0
0.52565
69.1
-18.4
22
West Stanly
4-6-0
0.52117
67.3
9.3
23
Maiden
5-5-0
0.52022
81.8
14.3
24
Fairmont
5-5-0
0.51728
68.7
-1.6
25
East Burke
5-5-0
0.51414
69.2
-2.3
26
Roanoke Rapids
5-5-0
0.50538
63.2
-9.3
27
North Surry
5-5-0
0.49896
67.8
-5.0
28
Nash Central
4-6-0
0.49405
66.4
3.5
29
Randleman
4-6-0
0.48023
71.1
4.7
30
Newton-Conover
4-6-0
0.47917
76.5
11.9
31
Ledford
4-6-0
0.47725
69.0
6.9
32
North Pitt
5-5-0
0.47403
71.2
2.6
33
Salisbury
3-7-0
0.47289
58.8
13.0
34
East Gaston
5-5-0
0.46822
57.6
-2.5
35
Bunn
5-5-0
0.46735
66.4
-9.5
36
Washington
3-7-0
0.46011
70.0
7.7
37
Eastern Wayne
5-4-0
0.44599
75.1
-10.4
38
Anson
4-6-0
0.44456
70.9
0.2
39
Southwest
4-6-0
0.44010
65.0
-2.6
40
Bandys
3-7-0
0.43844
76.2
15.9
41
Forbush
4-6-0
0.42069
53.1
-10.1
42
Jordan-Matthews
4-6-0
0.40783
37.4
-18.0
43
Foard
2-8-0
0.40578
63.8
13.0
44
Cummings
1-9-0
0.39790
58.4
11.3
45
Central Davidson
3-7-0
0.39047
65.8
1.4
46
Lincoln Charter
2-8-0
0.39008
42.5
-5.2
47
Lexington
2-8-0
0.37337
63.4
2.4
48
Carver
3-7-0
0.37006
41.1
-12.7
49
East Henderson
1-9-0
0.35089
49.2
3.7
50
Ashe County
1-9-0
0.34647
40.7
-0.7
51
North Johnston
2-8-0
0.34154
53.6
-1.0
52
Brevard
1-9-0
0.33936
54.2
7.9
53
Red Springs
2-8-0
0.32895
32.8
-2.0
54
Carrboro
1-9-0
0.29178
31.1
-16.7
55
North Lenoir
0-10-0
0.25050
41.4
-0.3
3A — 53 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Northeastern
9-1-0
0.71405
92.1
4.3
2
Whiteville
9-0-0
0.71352
82.2
-9.8
3
North Stanly
10-0-0
0.70497
92.0
-8.0
4
Shelby
9-1-0
0.69067
100.6
4.5
5
Midway
8-1-0
0.67172
81.4
-3.3
6
Hendersonville
10-0-0
0.66975
84.6
-8.6
7
James Kenan
8-1-0
0.66121
90.3
-1.7
8
Walkertown
9-1-0
0.63512
82.7
-9.5
9
Martin County
7-3-0
0.62617
83.1
0.9
10
Eastern Randolph
7-3-0
0.62240
87.3
0.0
11
Thomasville
9-1-0
0.61280
86.6
-13.0
12
Mount Airy
7-3-0
0.60547
83.4
10.3
13
Chase
8-2-0
0.58331
68.9
-13.3
14
Lincolnton
7-3-0
0.57378
93.0
-1.0
15
Mountain Heritage
7-3-0
0.56942
74.5
-5.6
16
Hertford County
6-4-0
0.56843
80.4
4.7
17
West Wilkes
7-3-0
0.55664
70.3
-8.4
18
Union Academy
7-3-0
0.55408
62.3
-12.1
19
Pasquotank County
6-4-0
0.55372
72.1
0.6
20
Wallace-Rose Hill
5-4-0
0.55216
85.1
1.0
21
Farmville Central
6-4-0
0.54398
70.8
5.6
22
Providence Grove
6-4-0
0.54203
68.3
-8.8
23
West Davidson
7-3-0
0.53581
70.3
-10.2
24
South Columbus
6-4-0
0.52926
67.4
-1.7
25
Louisburg Magnet
7-3-0
0.52088
62.6
-16.9
26
Princeton
5-5-0
0.51577
80.5
-2.0
27
Northwood
5-5-0
0.51415
64.5
-4.3
28
Wake Preparatory Academy
6-4-0
0.51361
63.3
-14.4
29
Greene Central
6-4-0
0.49746
79.3
-7.7
30
Owen
5-5-0
0.48103
59.9
-9.8
31
East Surry
4-6-0
0.47406
68.0
-0.1
32
East Rutherford
3-7-0
0.46540
65.9
4.5
33
North Wilkes
4-6-0
0.44625
63.0
-9.8
34
Kinston
5-5-0
0.44273
74.4
-4.5
35
Pine Lake Preparatory
4-6-0
0.41892
51.3
-10.6
36
Pender
4-6-0
0.41582
69.8
-10.4
37
West Lincoln
3-7-0
0.40133
60.8
-1.7
38
Wheatmore
3-7-0
0.39897
55.7
-13.0
39
Polk County
3-7-0
0.39843
53.6
-9.0
40
East Davidson
3-7-0
0.39008
44.0
-9.9
41
North Moore
0-10-0
0.36292
34.1
1.9
42
Ayden-Grifton
2-8-0
0.36142
57.8
3.5
43
McMichael
2-8-0
0.35694
26.5
-10.5
44
South Lenoir
3-7-0
0.34713
37.9
-13.2
45
Heide Trask
2-8-0
0.33944
38.3
-9.4
46
Patton
1-9-0
0.32667
37.4
-4.3
47
Draughn
0-10-0
0.32614
32.4
2.1
48
Bessemer City
1-9-0
0.32533
36.4
2.2
49
Madison
1-9-0
0.30851
37.3
-8.6
50
Trinity
1-9-0
0.30719
26.9
-11.5
51
Bartlett Yancey
1-9-0
0.29315
33.1
-11.1
52
Goldsboro
0-10-0
0.29021
20.4
4.9
53
Beddingfield
0-10-0
0.26539
29.8
-2.6
2A — 45 teams
School
Record
RPI
Power
SOS
1
Corvian Community
9-1-0
0.68200
91.2
1.2
2
Starmount
9-1-0
0.67153
87.1
-5.5
3
Tarboro
9-1-0
0.66991
98.5
1.4
4
Holmes
8-1-0
0.66188
88.3
-8.5
5
Warren County
10-0-0
0.65026
88.8
-20.5
6
Murphy
8-2-0
0.61719
79.0
-4.9
7
Community School of Davidson
7-3-0
0.61158
82.5
-2.2
8
Alleghany
7-3-0
0.60765
74.9
-5.2
9
North Rowan
7-3-0
0.59319
78.1
-7.0
10
Lakewood
7-3-0
0.59074
60.8
-12.6
11
Manteo
7-3-0
0.58220
58.7
-13.1
12
Mountain Island Charter
8-2-0
0.57252
65.5
-17.9
13
East Bladen
7-3-0
0.56987
62.3
-15.7
14
East Wilkes
6-4-0
0.55931
82.6
-3.2
15
Christ the King
7-3-0
0.55810
74.7
-9.9
16
Mitchell
7-3-0
0.54628
74.4
-9.0
17
Southside
7-3-0
0.54371
47.5
-24.1
18
Cherokee
6-4-0
0.52911
61.2
-5.1
19
Cherryville
6-4-0
0.51781
68.5
-5.6
20
Gates County
5-5-0
0.50966
63.7
-10.2
21
North Duplin Jr Sr
5-4-0
0.48778
54.1
-22.1
22
West Columbus
5-5-0
0.47518
53.2
-14.0
23
Bertie
3-7-0
0.46334
48.8
-2.8
24
Albemarle
4-6-0
0.45319
49.2
-10.7
25
Camden County
4-6-0
0.45063
52.8
-10.6
26
South Stokes
5-5-0
0.44686
42.8
-23.9
27
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy
West and East for every classification: seeded on projected final RPI, every game to the team our model favors with the score it predicts. All the brackets on one page.
The RPI bubble: the teams whose chance of making the playoffs is between 15% and 85%, with the last teams safely in and the first teams out on either edge, listed by that chance. In is 85% or better, Out below 15%.
8A bubble — 24 of 32 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
22
Wakefield
4-6-0
100%
In
0.47898
22
0.4790
23
South Mecklenburg
4-6-0
100%
In
0.47319
23
0.4730
24
Willow Spring
3-7-0
100%
In
0.44869
24
0.4487
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
25
Enloe
4-6-0
0%
Out
0.43711
25
0.4371
26
Northwest Guilford
2-8-0
0%
Out
0.41876
26
0.4188
27
Apex
3-7-0
0%
Out
0.41050
27
0.4105
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
7A bubble — 48 of 60 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
46
Lumberton
2-8-0
100%
In
0.39422
46
0.3942
47
Chapel Hill
3-7-0
100%
In
0.39384
47
0.3938
48
East Wake
3-7-0
100%
In
0.39215
48
0.3922
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
49
North Mecklenburg
3-7-0
0%
Out
0.38697
49
0.3869
50
Purnell Swett
3-7-0
0%
Out
0.37833
50
0.3781
51
Cary
3-7-0
0%
Out
0.37394
51
0.3740
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
6A bubble — 48 of 58 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
46
South View
3-7-0
100%
In
0.41222
46
0.4122
47
Saint Stephens
3-7-0
100%
In
0.41200
47
0.4120
48
Lee County
2-8-0
100%
In
0.41137
48
0.4114
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
49
Western Guilford
3-7-0
0%
Out
0.40596
49
0.4058
50
West Brunswick
2-8-0
0%
Out
0.40512
50
0.4049
51
Southeast Guilford
3-7-0
0%
Out
0.39314
51
0.3932
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
5A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
46
Huss
3-7-0
100%
In
0.40898
46
0.4090
47
Richlands
2-8-0
100%
In
0.40205
47
0.4019
48
Charles B Aycock
2-8-0
100%
In
0.39617
48
0.3962
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
49
Concord
1-9-0
0%
Out
0.36578
49
0.3658
50
Atkins
2-8-0
0%
Out
0.36572
50
0.3657
51
Dixon
2-8-0
0%
Out
0.36431
51
0.3643
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
4A bubble — 48 of 55 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
46
Lincoln Charter
2-8-0
100%
In
0.39008
46
0.3901
47
Lexington
2-8-0
100%
In
0.37337
47
0.3734
48
Carver
3-7-0
100%
In
0.37006
48
0.3699
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
49
East Henderson
1-9-0
0%
Out
0.35089
49
0.3507
50
Ashe County
1-9-0
0%
Out
0.34647
50
0.3464
51
North Johnston
2-8-0
0%
Out
0.34154
51
0.3415
48 of 55 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
3A bubble — 48 of 54 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
46
Patton
1-9-0
100%
In
0.32667
46
0.3264
47
Draughn
0-10-0
100%
In
0.32614
47
0.3262
48
Bessemer City
1-9-0
100%
In
0.32533
48
0.3253
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
49
Madison
1-9-0
0%
Out
0.30851
49
0.3082
50
Trinity
1-9-0
0%
Out
0.30719
50
0.3072
51
Bartlett Yancey
1-9-0
0%
Out
0.29315
51
0.2927
48 of 54 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
2A bubble — 48 of 46 make the field
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
1A bubble — 48 of 25 make the field
All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Winningest Coaches
North Carolina head-coaching records: every game in our archive for the seasons a coach is credited with, from HSFHA, the NCHSAA, NCHSFootball and MaxPreps, with a published stint filling a season no source names. Records outside North Carolina are HSFHA's. Still being completed: for 1980-1999 many seasons have no coach on record anywhere yet.
All-time, by NC wins
Coach
Schools
NC record
Pct
Seasons
State titles
Other states
Career
1
Jack Holley
Tabor City 1964-69, 1972-81; Hallsboro 1970-71; Wallace-Rose Hill 1982-92, 1997-2008; South Columbus 1993-96; Harrells Christian Academy 2009-10
417-126-8
.764
47
417-126-8
2
David Gentry
Edneyville 1974-83; Murphy 1984-2020
406-173-2
.701
47
9
406-173-2
3
Burton Cates
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
393-132
.749
42
1
393-132
2
Jeff Craddock
Tarboro 2004-26
265-48
.847
23
9
265-48
3
Steve Davis
Dudley 2004-26
252-61
.805
23
5
252-61
4
Richard Bailey
Jack Britt 2000-02, 2004, 2006-10; Scotland 2012-26
241-76
.760
24
241-76
5
Antonio Moore
Northeastern 2005-26
238-58
.804
22
238-58
6
Donnie Kiefer
Saint Pauls 1986-87; Southwest Guilford 1988-90; Gates County 1991-93; Andrews 1994-95; Hibriten 1996-98; Roanoke 1999-2003; East Carteret 2004-06; Tuscola 2007-11; Central Cabarrus 2012-16, 2022, 2025-26
120 simulated seasons. Results through week 11 are taken as they stand; every week after that is played out in full, with ratings refit after each one. Outcomes are sampled rather than awarded to the favorite, so upsets happen at the rate the model believes they happen. The mean rating comes back close to where the season has already put each team — a simulation learns nothing new about games nobody has played — so the 10th–90th band, not the mean, is the forecast, and it widens the further out the projection runs.
