← Week 12 report · Title races and the RPI bubble →
2026 NCHSAA Football Playoff Projections
Week 12. The bracket is the most likely path: the field is the teams most likely to make it, the same teams above the line in each RPI bubble, seeded on their projected final RPI, and every game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts. The title odds beside it come from playing the rest of the season and the playoffs 120 times, upsets included — a 60% favorite wins this bracket every time and the title 60% of the time. Field sizes and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 48 teams in 1A-7A and 24 in 8A, split east and west by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final and the final at a neutral site.
8A
Projected champion: Hough · wins the title in 44% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 22 | Wakefield | 4-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.47898 | 22 | 0.4790 |
| 23 | South Mecklenburg | 4-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.47319 | 23 | 0.4730 |
| 24 | Willow Spring | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.44869 | 24 | 0.4487 |
| Projected cut · top 24 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 25 | Enloe | 4-6-0 | 0% | Out | 0.43711 | 25 | 0.4371 |
| 26 | Northwest Guilford | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.41876 | 26 | 0.4188 |
| 27 | Apex | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.41050 | 27 | 0.4105 |
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Panther Creek219Laney25Laney 63% · at Panther Creek
5Green Hope3412Willow Spring17Green Hope 87% · at Green Hope
7Leesville Road3410Broughton17Leesville Road 88% · at Leesville Road
6Jordan3511Wakefield17Jordan 89% · at Jordan
Second Round
1Millbrook459Laney13Millbrook 98% · at Millbrook
4Rolesville445Green Hope13Rolesville 97% · at Rolesville
2Apex Friendship227Leesville Road22Leesville Road 51% · at Apex Friendship
3Hoggard396Jordan15Hoggard 94% · at Hoggard
Third Round
1Millbrook264Rolesville20Millbrook 67% · at Millbrook
3Hoggard357Leesville Road17Hoggard 89% · at Hoggard
Regional Final
1Millbrook303Hoggard19Millbrook 78% · at Millbrook
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Palisades299Ardrey Kell19Palisades 76% · at Palisades
5Myers Park4212South Mecklenburg14Myers Park 96% · at Myers Park
7West Charlotte3010Hoke County19West Charlotte 78% · at West Charlotte
6Pinecrest3011Providence19Pinecrest 79% · at Pinecrest
Second Round
1Hough438Palisades13Hough 97% · at Hough
4West Forsyth315Myers Park18West Forsyth 81% · at West Forsyth
2Chambers387West Charlotte16Chambers 93% · at Chambers
3Mallard Creek346Pinecrest17Mallard Creek 88% · at Mallard Creek
Third Round
1Hough354West Forsyth17Hough 89% · at Hough
2Chambers243Mallard Creek21Chambers 60% · at Chambers
Regional Final
1Hough332Chambers17Hough 86% · at Hough
State Championship
Hough28Millbrook20Hough 72% · neutral site
Every 8A team's projection — 32 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hough | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 44.2% |
| Chambers | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 8.3% |
| Millbrook | 9.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.8% |
| Mallard Creek | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 5.0% |
| Apex Friendship | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0.8% |
| Hoggard | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 8.3% |
| West Forsyth | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 2.5% |
| Rolesville | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 10.0% |
| Myers Park | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Pinecrest | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| West Charlotte | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Palisades | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Green Hope | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Jordan | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Ardrey Kell | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Leesville Road | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Panther Creek | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Laney | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Hoke County | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Providence | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Broughton | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Wakefield | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| South Mecklenburg | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Willow Spring | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Enloe | 4.0-6.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Northwest Guilford | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Apex | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Mecklenburg | 4.0-6.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Corinth Holders | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Athens Drive | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Garinger | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Green Level | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
7A
Projected champion: Weddington · wins the title in 29% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Lumberton | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.39422 | 46 | 0.3942 |
| 47 | Chapel Hill | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.39384 | 47 | 0.3938 |
| 48 | East Wake | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.39215 | 48 | 0.3922 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | North Mecklenburg | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.38697 | 49 | 0.3869 |
| 50 | Purnell Swett | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.37833 | 50 | 0.3781 |
| 51 | Cary | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.37394 | 51 | 0.3740 |
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Fuquay-Varina3017Topsail19Fuquay-Varina 78% · at Fuquay-Varina
9D H Conley3724East Wake16D H Conley 91% · at D H Conley
13Holly Springs2520Overhills21Holly Springs 63% · at Holly Springs
12Ashley3121Pine Forest18Ashley 81% · at Ashley
15Heritage2518North Brunswick21Heritage 61% · at Heritage
10Southeast Raleigh4823New Hanover12Southeast Raleigh 98% · at Southeast Raleigh
14South Central2719Sanderson20South Central 70% · at South Central
11Hillside2122South Garner25South Garner 62% · at Hillside
Second Round
1Cleveland4416Fuquay-Varina13Cleveland 97% · at Cleveland
8Cape Fear299D H Conley19Cape Fear 77% · at Cape Fear
4Southern School of Energy and Sustainability3913Holly Springs15Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 94% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
5New Bern3412Ashley17New Bern 88% · at New Bern
2Garner4515Heritage13Garner 98% · at Garner
7Cardinal Gibbons2210Southeast Raleigh22Cardinal Gibbons 51% · at Cardinal Gibbons
3Clayton4314South Central14Clayton 97% · at Clayton
6Wake Forest4222South Garner14Wake Forest 96% · at Wake Forest
Third Round
1Cleveland418Cape Fear15Cleveland 95% · at Cleveland
4Southern School of Energy and Sustainability275New Bern20Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 70% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
2Garner247Cardinal Gibbons21Garner 57% · at Garner
3Clayton276Wake Forest20Clayton 70% · at Clayton
Fourth Round
1Cleveland334Southern School of Energy and Sustainability18Cleveland 84% · at Cleveland
2Garner223Clayton22Clayton 52% · at Garner
Regional Final
1Cleveland253Clayton21Cleveland 62% · at Cleveland
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Hopewell2117Porter Ridge24Porter Ridge 57% · at Hopewell
9Hickory Ridge5524Chapel Hill9Hickory Ridge 99% · at Hickory Ridge
13Jack Britt3020R J Reynolds19Jack Britt 78% · at Jack Britt
12West Cabarrus3521Parkland17West Cabarrus 89% · at West Cabarrus
15Butler2818Independence20Butler 71% · at Butler
10Davie County4623Lumberton13Davie County 98% · at Davie County
14Richmond4219Ballantyne Ridge14Richmond 96% · at Richmond
11Mooresville4422South Iredell13Mooresville 97% · at Mooresville
Second Round
1Weddington4917Porter Ridge11Weddington 99% · at Weddington
8East Forsyth259Hickory Ridge21East Forsyth 62% · at East Forsyth
4Reagan4413Jack Britt13Reagan 97% · at Reagan
5A L Brown4112West Cabarrus15A L Brown 95% · at A L Brown
2Grimsley4515Butler13Grimsley 97% · at Grimsley
7Page3110Davie County19Page 80% · at Page
3Lake Norman3814Richmond16Lake Norman 93% · at Lake Norman
6Marvin Ridge2711Mooresville20Marvin Ridge 67% · at Marvin Ridge
Third Round
1Weddington368East Forsyth16Weddington 90% · at Weddington
4Reagan325A L Brown18Reagan 84% · at Reagan
2Grimsley367Page16Grimsley 90% · at Grimsley
3Lake Norman346Marvin Ridge17Lake Norman 87% · at Lake Norman
Fourth Round
1Weddington314Reagan18Weddington 81% · at Weddington
2Grimsley253Lake Norman21Grimsley 63% · at Grimsley
Regional Final
1Weddington252Grimsley21Weddington 62% · at Weddington
State Championship
Weddington29Cleveland19Weddington 75% · neutral site
Every 7A team's projection — 60 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weddington | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 29.2% |
| Grimsley | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 24.2% |
| Lake Norman | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 5.0% |
| Cleveland | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.5% |
| Garner | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 4.2% |
| Reagan | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 5.8% |
| A L Brown | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.8% |
| Marvin Ridge | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Clayton | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 7.5% |
| Southern School of Energy and Sustainability | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.8% |
| New Bern | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Wake Forest | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Cardinal Gibbons | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 1.7% |
| Page | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| East Forsyth | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.8% |
| Cape Fear | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| D H Conley | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Raleigh | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 1.7% |
| Hickory Ridge | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.8% |
| Davie County | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Hillside | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Mooresville | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Ashley | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| West Cabarrus | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Jack Britt | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Holly Springs | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| South Central | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Heritage | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Richmond | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Butler | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Fuquay-Varina | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Topsail | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| North Brunswick | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Hopewell | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Sanderson | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Porter Ridge | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Independence | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Overhills | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Ballantyne Ridge | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| R J Reynolds | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Pine Forest | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| South Garner | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Parkland | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| New Hanover | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| South Iredell | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Lumberton | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Chapel Hill | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| East Wake | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| North Mecklenburg | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Purnell Swett | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cary | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southwest Guilford | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| West Mecklenburg | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cuthbertson | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Riverside | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cox Mill | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| McDowell | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Smithfield-Selma | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Knightdale | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Rocky River | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
6A
Projected champion: Junius H Rose · wins the title in 38% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | South View | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.41222 | 46 | 0.4122 |
| 47 | Saint Stephens | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.41200 | 47 | 0.4120 |
| 48 | Lee County | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.41137 | 48 | 0.4114 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Western Guilford | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.40596 | 49 | 0.4058 |
| 50 | West Brunswick | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.40512 | 50 | 0.4049 |
| 51 | Southeast Guilford | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.39314 | 51 | 0.3932 |
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16South Johnston2717Felton Grove20South Johnston 67% · at South Johnston
9Seventy-First4724Lee County12Seventy-First 98% · at Seventy-First
13Swansboro3220White Oak18Swansboro 82% · at Swansboro
12Franklinton3521Terry Sanford17Franklinton 88% · at Franklinton
15Gray's Creek3818Northern15Gray's Creek 93% · at Gray's Creek
10Triton2823South View20Triton 72% · at Triton
14Westover3619West Johnston16Westover 90% · at Westover
11Harnett Central4622Western Harnett12Harnett Central 98% · at Harnett Central
Second Round
1Junius H Rose5016South Johnston11Junius H Rose 99% · at Junius H Rose
8Middle Creek289Seventy-First19Middle Creek 73% · at Middle Creek
4Scotland4413Swansboro13Scotland 97% · at Scotland
5Union Pines3112Franklinton18Union Pines 80% · at Union Pines
2Jacksonville4715Gray's Creek12Jacksonville 98% · at Jacksonville
7Williams2810Triton20Williams 72% · at Williams
3Northern Nash4314Westover13Northern Nash 97% · at Northern Nash
6Southern Alamance3011Harnett Central19Southern Alamance 78% · at Southern Alamance
Third Round
1Junius H Rose278Middle Creek20Junius H Rose 69% · at Junius H Rose
4Scotland295Union Pines19Scotland 76% · at Scotland
2Jacksonville407Williams15Jacksonville 95% · at Jacksonville
3Northern Nash356Southern Alamance17Northern Nash 88% · at Northern Nash
Fourth Round
1Junius H Rose304Scotland19Junius H Rose 78% · at Junius H Rose
2Jacksonville233Northern Nash22Jacksonville 54% · at Jacksonville
Regional Final
1Junius H Rose252Jacksonville21Junius H Rose 62% · at Junius H Rose
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Reynolds2017Statesville27Statesville 67% · at Reynolds
9Sun Valley3624Saint Stephens16Sun Valley 90% · at Sun Valley
13Watauga2820Olympic20Watauga 72% · at Watauga
12Ashbrook3821Central Cabarrus16Ashbrook 93% · at Ashbrook
15Ragsdale3618Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology16Ragsdale 90% · at Ragsdale
10Charlotte Catholic3823Piedmont16Charlotte Catholic 93% · at Charlotte Catholic
14Glenn2719Eastern Guilford20Glenn 67% · at Glenn
11Northern Guilford4522South Caldwell13Northern Guilford 97% · at Northern Guilford
Second Round
1Asheville3617Statesville17Asheville 90% · at Asheville
8Dudley239Sun Valley21Dudley 56% · at Dudley
4Kings Mountain4113Watauga15Kings Mountain 95% · at Kings Mountain
5Mount Tabor2512Ashbrook21Mount Tabor 62% · at Mount Tabor
2Roberson4115Ragsdale14Roberson 96% · at Roberson
7Freedom1910Charlotte Catholic29Charlotte Catholic 76% · at Freedom
3Asheboro3014Glenn19Asheboro 79% · at Asheboro
6Alexander Central2211Northern Guilford22Northern Guilford 52% · at Alexander Central
Third Round
1Asheville288Dudley20Asheville 72% · at Asheville
4Kings Mountain295Mount Tabor19Kings Mountain 76% · at Kings Mountain
2Roberson3410Charlotte Catholic17Roberson 88% · at Roberson
3Asheboro2311Northern Guilford21Asheboro 55% · at Asheboro
Fourth Round
1Asheville214Kings Mountain26Kings Mountain 64% · at Asheville
2Roberson373Asheboro16Roberson 92% · at Roberson
Regional Final
2Roberson254Kings Mountain21Roberson 63% · at Roberson
State Championship
Junius H Rose28Roberson20Junius H Rose 72% · neutral site
Every 6A team's projection — 58 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junius H Rose | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 38.3% |
| Asheville | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.8% |
| Jacksonville | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 17.5% |
| Northern Nash | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 20.0% |
| Scotland | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 1.7% |
| Union Pines | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Southern Alamance | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Roberson | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 11.7% |
| Williams | 6.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Middle Creek | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 5.0% |
| Asheboro | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Seventy-First | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.8% |
| Triton | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Kings Mountain | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 2.5% |
| Mount Tabor | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.8% |
| Harnett Central | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Franklinton | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Alexander Central | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Freedom | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Swansboro | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Dudley | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Sun Valley | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Catholic | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Northern Guilford | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Ashbrook | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.8% |
| Westover | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Watauga | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Glenn | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Ragsdale | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Gray's Creek | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Reynolds | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Statesville | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| South Johnston | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Felton Grove | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.7 | 0.0% |
| Northern | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 17.3 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Guilford | 3.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Olympic | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| West Johnston | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Central Cabarrus | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| White Oak | 2.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Terry Sanford | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| South Caldwell | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Piedmont | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Western Harnett | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| South View | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Saint Stephens | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Lee County | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Western Guilford | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| West Brunswick | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southeast Guilford | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Vance County | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| E E Smith | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Harding University | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Ben L. Smith | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Iredell | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Lee | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Chapel Hill | 1.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
5A
Projected champion: Crest · wins the title in 7% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Huss | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.40898 | 46 | 0.4090 |
| 47 | Richlands | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.40205 | 47 | 0.4019 |
| 48 | Charles B Aycock | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.39617 | 48 | 0.3962 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Concord | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.36578 | 49 | 0.3658 |
| 50 | Atkins | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.36572 | 50 | 0.3657 |
| 51 | Dixon | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.36431 | 51 | 0.3643 |
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16West Carteret2217Currituck County22West Carteret 50% · at West Carteret
9Rocky Mount4124Charles B Aycock14Rocky Mount 95% · at Rocky Mount
13Western Alamance3620Southern Wayne17Western Alamance 90% · at Western Alamance
12South Granville2721South Brunswick20South Granville 69% · at South Granville
15Southern Nash2718Rockingham County20Southern Nash 69% · at Southern Nash
10Orange2823Richlands20Orange 72% · at Orange
14Montgomery Central3519J. F. Webb17Montgomery Central 88% · at Montgomery Central
11Saint Pauls3822Person16Saint Pauls 92% · at Saint Pauls
Second Round
1Southeast Alamance4516West Carteret13Southeast Alamance 98% · at Southeast Alamance
8Havelock289Rocky Mount20Havelock 73% · at Havelock
4Croatan3613Western Alamance16Croatan 90% · at Croatan
5Seaforth3412South Granville17Seaforth 87% · at Seaforth
2Northside4515Southern Nash13Northside 97% · at Northside
7Eastern Alamance4510Orange13Eastern Alamance 97% · at Eastern Alamance
3Hunt3914Montgomery Central15Hunt 93% · at Hunt
6Fike3511Saint Pauls17Fike 89% · at Fike
Third Round
1Southeast Alamance268Havelock20Southeast Alamance 66% · at Southeast Alamance
4Croatan325Seaforth18Croatan 83% · at Croatan
2Northside297Eastern Alamance19Northside 75% · at Northside
3Hunt206Fike27Fike 67% · at Hunt
Fourth Round
1Southeast Alamance264Croatan20Southeast Alamance 66% · at Southeast Alamance
2Northside276Fike20Northside 69% · at Northside
Regional Final
1Southeast Alamance202Northside28Northside 71% · at Southeast Alamance
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Parkwood2617Erwin20Parkwood 66% · at Parkwood
9Hickory4424Huss13Hickory 97% · at Hickory
13Smoky Mountain4420North Buncombe13Smoky Mountain 97% · at Smoky Mountain
12Northwest Cabarrus3321North Lincoln18Northwest Cabarrus 85% · at Northwest Cabarrus
15West Henderson2418Carson21West Henderson 59% · at West Henderson
10Forest Hills3923Forestview15Forest Hills 94% · at Forest Hills
14North Davidson4119East Rowan14North Davidson 96% · at North Davidson
11Enka3622North Henderson17Enka 90% · at Enka
Second Round
1Crest4416Parkwood13Crest 97% · at Crest
8Oak Grove249Hickory21Oak Grove 57% · at Oak Grove
4South Point3413Smoky Mountain17South Point 87% · at South Point
5Monroe4112Northwest Cabarrus14Monroe 95% · at Monroe
2Franklin4215West Henderson14Franklin 96% · at Franklin
7East Lincoln3710Forest Hills16East Lincoln 92% · at East Lincoln
3Jay M Robinson4014North Davidson15Jay M Robinson 95% · at Jay M Robinson
6West Rowan3011Enka19West Rowan 78% · at West Rowan
Third Round
1Crest248Oak Grove21Crest 58% · at Crest
4South Point235Monroe22South Point 54% · at South Point
2Franklin217East Lincoln25East Lincoln 63% · at Franklin
3Jay M Robinson386West Rowan16Jay M Robinson 92% · at Jay M Robinson
Fourth Round
1Crest254South Point21Crest 62% · at Crest
3Jay M Robinson287East Lincoln20Jay M Robinson 73% · at Jay M Robinson
Regional Final
1Crest223Jay M Robinson22Crest 50% · at Crest
State Championship
Crest25Northside21Crest 61% · neutral site
Every 5A team's projection — 57 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Alamance | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 10.8% |
| Crest | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 6.7% |
| Northside | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 17.5% |
| Franklin | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| Jay M Robinson | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 26.7% |
| South Point | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 5.0% |
| Hunt | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Monroe | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 4.2% |
| West Rowan | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.8% |
| East Lincoln | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 7.5% |
| Croatan | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 1.7% |
| Seaforth | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Oak Grove | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 5.8% |
| Hickory | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 4.2% |
| Forest Hills | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Fike | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 3.3% |
| Eastern Alamance | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 3.3% |
| Enka | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Cabarrus | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Smoky Mountain | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Havelock | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 1.7% |
| North Davidson | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Rocky Mount | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Orange | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| West Henderson | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Saint Pauls | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.8% |
| Parkwood | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| South Granville | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Western Alamance | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Erwin | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Montgomery Central | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Southern Nash | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| West Carteret | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Carson | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Currituck County | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Rockingham County | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| J. F. Webb | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Southern Wayne | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| East Rowan | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| South Brunswick | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| North Buncombe | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| North Lincoln | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| North Henderson | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Person | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Forestview | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Huss | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Richlands | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Charles B Aycock | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Concord | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Atkins | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Dixon | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Northeast Guilford | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Gaston | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Guilford | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cedar Ridge | 1.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Douglas Byrd | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
4A
Projected champion: Hibriten · wins the title in 23% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Lincoln Charter | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.39008 | 46 | 0.3901 |
| 47 | Lexington | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.37337 | 47 | 0.3734 |
| 48 | Carver | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.37006 | 48 | 0.3699 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | East Henderson | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.35089 | 49 | 0.3507 |
| 50 | Ashe County | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34647 | 50 | 0.3464 |
| 51 | North Johnston | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34154 | 51 | 0.3415 |
48 of 55 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Washington2117Eastern Wayne25Eastern Wayne 63% · at Washington
9Fairmont4324Carver14Fairmont 97% · at Fairmont
13Ledford4520Jordan-Matthews13Ledford 97% · at Ledford
12Randleman3321Cummings18Randleman 85% · at Randleman
15Bunn2118Anson25Anson 61% · at Bunn
10Nash Central2523Lexington21Nash Central 62% · at Nash Central
14North Pitt2819Southwest20North Pitt 71% · at North Pitt
11Roanoke Rapids2122Central Davidson23Central Davidson 55% · at Roanoke Rapids
Second Round
1East Duplin3417Eastern Wayne17East Duplin 87% · at East Duplin
8Southwestern Randolph239Fairmont22Southwestern Randolph 54% · at Southwestern Randolph
4West Craven4213Ledford14West Craven 96% · at West Craven
5Reidsville4112Randleman14Reidsville 95% · at Reidsville
2T Wingate Andrews4018Anson15T Wingate Andrews 95% · at T Wingate Andrews
7Morehead2110Nash Central24Nash Central 57% · at Morehead
3Clinton2714North Pitt20Clinton 71% · at Clinton
6SouthWest Edgecombe3622Central Davidson16SouthWest Edgecombe 90% · at SouthWest Edgecombe
Third Round
1East Duplin398Southwestern Randolph15East Duplin 94% · at East Duplin
4West Craven235Reidsville21West Craven 56% · at West Craven
2T Wingate Andrews4210Nash Central14T Wingate Andrews 96% · at T Wingate Andrews
3Clinton216SouthWest Edgecombe25SouthWest Edgecombe 63% · at Clinton
Fourth Round
1East Duplin204West Craven26West Craven 65% · at East Duplin
2T Wingate Andrews316SouthWest Edgecombe18T Wingate Andrews 80% · at T Wingate Andrews
Regional Final
2T Wingate Andrews214West Craven23West Craven 55% · at T Wingate Andrews
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16East Burke2417North Surry21East Burke 57% · at East Burke
9R-S Central4624Lincoln Charter12R-S Central 98% · at R-S Central
13Bunker Hill3820East Gaston16Bunker Hill 93% · at Bunker Hill
12Wilkes Central2421Bandys21Wilkes Central 59% · at Wilkes Central
15West Stanly1918Newton-Conover29Newton-Conover 74% · at West Stanly
10Pisgah3523Foard17Pisgah 88% · at Pisgah
14Maiden4119Salisbury14Maiden 95% · at Maiden
11South Rowan3822Forbush16South Rowan 93% · at South Rowan
Second Round
1Hibriten4416East Burke13Hibriten 97% · at Hibriten
8Lake Norman Charter209R-S Central28R-S Central 72% · at Lake Norman Charter
4Burns3513Bunker Hill17Burns 89% · at Burns
5Mount Pleasant2512Wilkes Central21Mount Pleasant 63% · at Mount Pleasant
2Tuscola3918Newton-Conover15Tuscola 94% · at Tuscola
7Stuart W Cramer3510Pisgah17Stuart W Cramer 89% · at Stuart W Cramer
3West Iredell3414Maiden17West Iredell 86% · at West Iredell
6West Stokes3411South Rowan17West Stokes 87% · at West Stokes
Third Round
1Hibriten399R-S Central15Hibriten 94% · at Hibriten
4Burns315Mount Pleasant18Burns 81% · at Burns
2Tuscola247Stuart W Cramer21Tuscola 60% · at Tuscola
3West Iredell306West Stokes19West Iredell 78% · at West Iredell
Fourth Round
1Hibriten274Burns20Hibriten 69% · at Hibriten
2Tuscola243West Iredell21Tuscola 57% · at Tuscola
Regional Final
1Hibriten242Tuscola21Hibriten 56% · at Hibriten
State Championship
Hibriten24West Craven21Hibriten 58% · neutral site
Every 4A team's projection — 55 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Duplin | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 4.2% |
| Hibriten | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.3% |
| Tuscola | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 8.3% |
| West Iredell | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 9.2% |
| T Wingate Andrews | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 22.5% |
| Clinton | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.8% |
| West Craven | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 16.7% |
| Burns | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 5.0% |
| Mount Pleasant | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| West Stokes | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.8% |
| Reidsville | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.1 | 5.8% |
| SouthWest Edgecombe | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.9 | 0.8% |
| Stuart W Cramer | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 2.5% |
| Lake Norman Charter | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| R-S Central | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Pisgah | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| South Rowan | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Wilkes Central | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Morehead | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Bunker Hill | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Southwestern Randolph | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Maiden | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| West Stanly | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Fairmont | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| East Burke | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| North Surry | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Nash Central | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Roanoke Rapids | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Randleman | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Newton-Conover | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Ledford | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| North Pitt | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Salisbury | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| East Gaston | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Bunn | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Washington | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Wayne | 5.0-4.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Anson | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Southwest | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Bandys | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Forbush | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Jordan-Matthews | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Foard | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Cummings | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Central Davidson | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Lincoln Charter | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Lexington | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Carver | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| East Henderson | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Ashe County | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Johnston | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Brevard | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Red Springs | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Carrboro | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Lenoir | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
3A
Projected champion: Shelby · wins the title in 43% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Patton | 1-9-0 | 100% | In | 0.32667 | 46 | 0.3264 |
| 47 | Draughn | 0-10-0 | 100% | In | 0.32614 | 47 | 0.3262 |
| 48 | Bessemer City | 1-9-0 | 100% | In | 0.32533 | 48 | 0.3253 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Madison | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.30851 | 49 | 0.3082 |
| 50 | Trinity | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.30719 | 50 | 0.3072 |
| 51 | Bartlett Yancey | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.29315 | 51 | 0.2927 |
48 of 54 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Wake Preparatory Academy1717Greene Central34Greene Central 87% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
9Wallace-Rose Hill5024Heide Trask11Wallace-Rose Hill 99% · at Wallace-Rose Hill
13Louisburg Magnet4420North Moore13Louisburg Magnet 97% · at Louisburg Magnet
12South Columbus3021Ayden-Grifton19South Columbus 79% · at South Columbus
15Northwood1918Kinston29Kinston 76% · at Northwood
10Farmville Central4523South Lenoir13Farmville Central 98% · at Farmville Central
14Princeton3119Pender18Princeton 81% · at Princeton
11Providence Grove4922McMichael11Providence Grove 99% · at Providence Grove
Second Round
1Northeastern3317Greene Central18Northeastern 85% · at Northeastern
8Pasquotank County189Wallace-Rose Hill32Wallace-Rose Hill 82% · at Pasquotank County
4James Kenan4313Louisburg Magnet13James Kenan 97% · at James Kenan
5Martin County3512South Columbus17Martin County 89% · at Martin County
2Whiteville2918Kinston19Whiteville 75% · at Whiteville
7Hertford County3010Farmville Central19Hertford County 79% · at Hertford County
3Midway2314Princeton21Midway 56% · at Midway
6Eastern Randolph3811Providence Grove16Eastern Randolph 93% · at Eastern Randolph
Third Round
1Northeastern289Wallace-Rose Hill19Northeastern 73% · at Northeastern
4James Kenan295Martin County19James Kenan 74% · at James Kenan
2Whiteville247Hertford County21Whiteville 58% · at Whiteville
3Midway206Eastern Randolph26Eastern Randolph 65% · at Midway
Fourth Round
1Northeastern244James Kenan21Northeastern 58% · at Northeastern
2Whiteville216Eastern Randolph25Eastern Randolph 63% · at Whiteville
Regional Final
1Northeastern276Eastern Randolph20Northeastern 67% · at Northeastern
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16North Wilkes3217Pine Lake Preparatory18North Wilkes 83% · at North Wilkes
9Mountain Heritage4724Bessemer City12Mountain Heritage 98% · at Mountain Heritage
13Owen2820Polk County20Owen 71% · at Owen
12West Davidson4321East Davidson14West Davidson 96% · at West Davidson
15East Rutherford2718West Lincoln20East Rutherford 68% · at East Rutherford
10West Wilkes4723Draughn12West Wilkes 98% · at West Wilkes
14East Surry3319Wheatmore18East Surry 84% · at East Surry
11Union Academy4222Patton14Union Academy 96% · at Union Academy
Second Round
1North Stanly4416North Wilkes13North Stanly 97% · at North Stanly
8Lincolnton389Mountain Heritage16Lincolnton 92% · at Lincolnton
4Walkertown4113Owen14Walkertown 95% · at Walkertown
5Thomasville3612West Davidson17Thomasville 90% · at Thomasville
2Shelby4615East Rutherford12Shelby 98% · at Shelby
7Chase2210West Wilkes22West Wilkes 52% · at Chase
3Hendersonville3614East Surry16Hendersonville 90% · at Hendersonville
6Mount Airy4011Union Academy15Mount Airy 94% · at Mount Airy
Third Round
1North Stanly228Lincolnton22Lincolnton 50% · at North Stanly
4Walkertown215Thomasville24Thomasville 59% · at Walkertown
2Shelby4410West Wilkes13Shelby 97% · at Shelby
3Hendersonville246Mount Airy21Hendersonville 56% · at Hendersonville
Fourth Round
5Thomasville208Lincolnton26Lincolnton 67% · at Thomasville
2Shelby363Hendersonville17Shelby 90% · at Shelby
Regional Final
2Shelby298Lincolnton19Shelby 75% · at Shelby
State Championship
Northeastern19Shelby29Shelby 75% · neutral site
Every 3A team's projection — 54 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeastern | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.0% |
| Whiteville | 9.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 2.5% |
| North Stanly | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 8.3% |
| Shelby | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 43.3% |
| Midway | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.8% |
| Hendersonville | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 1.7% |
| James Kenan | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 6.7% |
| Walkertown | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Martin County | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 1.7% |
| Eastern Randolph | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 4.2% |
| Thomasville | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 1.7% |
| Mount Airy | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Chase | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Lincolnton | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 4.2% |
| Mountain Heritage | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Hertford County | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 1.7% |
| West Wilkes | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Union Academy | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Pasquotank County | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Wallace-Rose Hill | 5.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 2.5% |
| Farmville Central | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Providence Grove | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| West Davidson | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| South Columbus | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Louisburg Magnet | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Princeton | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.8% |
| Northwood | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Wake Preparatory Academy | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Greene Central | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Owen | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| East Surry | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| East Rutherford | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| North Wilkes | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Kinston | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Pine Lake Preparatory | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Pender | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| West Lincoln | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.1 | 0.0% |
| Wheatmore | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.1 | 0.0% |
| Polk County | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.9 | 0.0% |
| East Davidson | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| North Moore | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Ayden-Grifton | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| McMichael | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| South Lenoir | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Heide Trask | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Patton | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Draughn | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Bessemer City | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Madison | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Trinity | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Bartlett Yancey | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Goldsboro | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Beddingfield | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Surry Central | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
2A
Projected champion: Tarboro · wins the title in 49% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Rosewood4217Pamlico County14Rosewood 96% · at Rosewood
13Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy2220Union23Union 54% · at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy
12Camden County3921Lejeune15Camden County 94% · at Camden County
15Hobbton3318Perquimans County18Hobbton 85% · at Hobbton
10West Columbus4923Triangle Math and Science Academy11West Columbus 99% · at West Columbus
14East Carteret2419Northampton County21East Carteret 59% · at East Carteret
11Bertie3622American Leadership Academy - Johnston16Bertie 90% · at Bertie
Second Round
1Tarboro4916Rosewood11Tarboro 99% · at Tarboro
8Gates County309North Duplin Jr Sr19Gates County 79% · at Gates County
4Lakewood3820Union16Lakewood 93% · at Lakewood
5Manteo2712Camden County20Manteo 70% · at Manteo
2Holmes4415Hobbton13Holmes 97% · at Holmes
7Southside2110West Columbus26West Columbus 64% · at Southside
3Warren County4914East Carteret11Warren County 99% · at Warren County
6East Bladen3311Bertie17East Bladen 86% · at East Bladen
Third Round
1Tarboro468Gates County12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
4Lakewood245Manteo21Lakewood 60% · at Lakewood
2Holmes4610West Columbus12Holmes 98% · at Holmes
3Warren County436East Bladen14Warren County 96% · at Warren County
Fourth Round
1Tarboro474Lakewood12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
2Holmes223Warren County22Holmes 51% · at Holmes
Regional Final
1Tarboro312Holmes18Tarboro 80% · at Tarboro
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Langtree Charter Academy2317Avery County22Langtree Charter Academy 52% · at Langtree Charter Academy
13Albemarle2720Bradford Preparatory20Albemarle 70% · at Albemarle
12Cherryville4721Elkin12Cherryville 98% · at Cherryville
15Swain County3218Bishop McGuinness18Swain County 83% · at Swain County
10Mitchell5123Highland Tech10Mitchell 99% · at Mitchell
14South Stokes2019South Stanly26South Stanly 66% · at South Stokes
11Cherokee4322Hayesville14Cherokee 96% · at Cherokee
Second Round
1Corvian Community4916Langtree Charter Academy11Corvian Community 99% · at Corvian Community
8East Wilkes299Christ the King19East Wilkes 75% · at East Wilkes
4Community School of Davidson4513Albemarle13Community School of Davidson 98% · at Community School of Davidson
5Alleghany2812Cherryville20Alleghany 72% · at Alleghany
2Starmount4515Swain County13Starmount 98% · at Starmount
7Mountain Island Charter1910Mitchell28Mitchell 73% · at Mountain Island Charter
3Murphy4419South Stanly13Murphy 97% · at Murphy
6North Rowan3611Cherokee16North Rowan 91% · at North Rowan
Third Round
1Corvian Community308East Wilkes19Corvian Community 77% · at Corvian Community
4Community School of Davidson295Alleghany19Community School of Davidson 75% · at Community School of Davidson
2Starmount3310Mitchell18Starmount 85% · at Starmount
3Murphy236North Rowan21Murphy 56% · at Murphy
Fourth Round
1Corvian Community304Community School of Davidson19Corvian Community 77% · at Corvian Community
2Starmount293Murphy19Starmount 76% · at Starmount
Regional Final
1Corvian Community262Starmount20Corvian Community 66% · at Corvian Community
State Championship
Corvian Community20Tarboro28Tarboro 72% · neutral site
Every 2A team's projection — 46 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corvian Community | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.8% |
| Starmount | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 7.5% |
| Tarboro | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 49.2% |
| Holmes | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 10.8% |
| Warren County | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 7.5% |
| Murphy | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Community School of Davidson | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 2.5% |
| Alleghany | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| North Rowan | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Lakewood | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Manteo | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Mountain Island Charter | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| East Bladen | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| East Wilkes | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.1 | 1.7% |
| Christ the King | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.9 | 0.0% |
| Mitchell | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Southside | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Cherokee | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Cherryville | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Gates County | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| North Duplin Jr Sr | 5.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| West Columbus | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Bertie | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Albemarle | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Camden County | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| South Stokes | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| East Carteret | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Hobbton | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Rosewood | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Swain County | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Langtree Charter Academy | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Pamlico County | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Perquimans County | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Avery County | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Bishop McGuinness | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| South Stanly | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Northampton County | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Union | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Bradford Preparatory | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Elkin | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Lejeune | 2.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Hayesville | 1.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| American Leadership Academy - Johnston | 1.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Triangle Math and Science Academy | 1.0-6.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Highland Tech | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
1A
Projected champion: Northside · wins the title in 60% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Projected bracket
25 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-3
8Mattamuskeet209Columbia28Columbia 72% · at Mattamuskeet
4North East Carolina Prep4513Jones13North East Carolina Prep 97% · at North East Carolina Prep
5Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy4312Weldon STEM13Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 97% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy
7KIPP Pride1910Washington County29Washington County 74% · at KIPP Pride
6Rocky Mount Preparatory3511Bear Grass Charter17Rocky Mount Preparatory 89% · at Rocky Mount Preparatory
Second Round
1Northside529Columbia10Northside 99% · at Northside
4North East Carolina Prep205Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy28Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 73% · at North East Carolina Prep
2Hobgood Charter2310Washington County22Hobgood Charter 53% · at Hobgood Charter
3North Edgecombe276Rocky Mount Preparatory20North Edgecombe 70% · at North Edgecombe
Third Round
1Northside445Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy13Northside 97% · at Northside
2Hobgood Charter213North Edgecombe25North Edgecombe 62% · at Hobgood Charter
Regional Final
1Northside443North Edgecombe13Northside 97% · at Northside
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Rosman369College Prep and Leadership Academy16Rosman 90% · at Rosman
5Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad4412North Stokes13Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 97% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad
7South Davidson Middle and3810Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy15South Davidson Middle and 93% · at South Davidson Middle and
6East Columbus Junior-Senior3011Andrews19East Columbus Junior-Senior 77% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior
Second Round
1Chatham Central268Rosman20Chatham Central 67% · at Chatham Central
4Robbinsville415Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad14Robbinsville 95% · at Robbinsville
2Wilson Preparatory Academy437South Davidson Middle and14Wilson Preparatory Academy 96% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
3Sallie B Howard256East Columbus Junior-Senior21Sallie B Howard 60% · at Sallie B Howard
Third Round
1Chatham Central164Robbinsville38Robbinsville 92% · at Chatham Central
2Wilson Preparatory Academy433Sallie B Howard13Wilson Preparatory Academy 97% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
Regional Final
2Wilson Preparatory Academy224Robbinsville22Wilson Preparatory Academy 52% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
State Championship
Northside22Wilson Preparatory Academy22Northside 51% · neutral site
Every 1A team's projection — 25 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 60.0% |
| Chatham Central | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.8% |
| Wilson Preparatory Academy | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 27.5% |
| Hobgood Charter | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| Sallie B Howard | 6.0-3.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Robbinsville | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 11.7% |
| North Edgecombe | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| East Columbus Junior-Senior | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| South Davidson Middle and | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| North East Carolina Prep | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Rosman | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Rocky Mount Preparatory | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 7.3 | 0.0% |
| KIPP Pride | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 6.5 | 0.0% |
| Mattamuskeet | 0.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.6 | 0.0% |
| Columbia | 2.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.6 | 0.0% |
| College Prep and Leadership Academy | 2.0-7.0 | 100% | 9.4 | 0.0% |
| Washington County | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 9.6 | 0.0% |
| Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 10.4 | 0.0% |
| Andrews | 1.0-8.0 | 100% | 11.4 | 0.0% |
| Bear Grass Charter | 1.0-8.0 | 100% | 10.6 | 0.0% |
| North Stokes | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Weldon STEM | 0.0-9.0 | 100% | 11.6 | 0.0% |
| Jones | 0.0-10.0 | 100% | 12.6 | 0.0% |