Work in progress. This report is in active development.
Ratings and projections will change as the system is refined, and some
sections are not yet complete.
Ratings basis: 2995 2026 results, seeded with 2025Home field: +1.0 ptsGenerated October 10, 2026
Programs That Ended Their Season
First Flight (Kill Devil Hills) stopped on September 18 at 0-4: not enough players to continue the varsity season safely. The Outer Banks Voice
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy (Mooresboro) stopped on September 23 at 1-3: a large number of serious injuries and too few players remaining. WBTV
West Bladen (Bladenboro) stopped on September 24 at 0-5: not enough healthy players to take the field safely. WITN
Under NCHSAA rules, a school that stops mid-season forfeits each conference game it has left, and those count as wins for the opponents. Its other remaining games are no contest and count for no one.
Week 9 Projections
199 games. Sorted with the closest matchups first.
Thursday, October 15 — 2 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
Jack Britt at Overhillsconf
Jack Britt26–20
65%
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad at College Prep and Leadership Academyconf
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad38–15
93%
Friday, October 16 — 194 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
SouthLake Christian Academy at Hickory Grove Christianconf
Hickory Grove Christian22–22
50%
Bear Grass Charter at Columbiaconf
Columbia22–22
50%
Mount Pleasant at Parkwoodconf
Mount Pleasant22–22
51%
Hickory Ridge at A L Brownconf
Hickory Ridge22–22
51%
Davie County at Mooresvilleconf
Mooresville22–22
52%
Saint Pauls at Westoverconf
Westover23–22
53%
Lincoln Charter at Bradford Preparatoryconf
Bradford Preparatory23–22
54%
Sallie B Howard at North Edgecombeconf
North Edgecombe23–22
54%
Topsail at West Brunswickconf
Topsail23–22
54%
Roanoke Rapids at Louisburg Magnetconf
Louisburg Magnet23–22
54%
Faith Christian at Cary Christianconf
Faith Christian23–21
55%
Swain County at Cherokeeconf
Cherokee23–21
55%
Mountain Island Charter at Union Academy
Mountain Island Charter23–21
56%
Mountain Heritage at Mitchellconf
Mitchell24–21
56%
Chase at East Burkeconf
East Burke24–21
57%
Community Christian at Father Capodannoconf
Community Christian24–21
58%
Sanderson at Holly Springsconf
Holly Springs24–21
59%
East Bladen at Lakewoodconf
East Bladen24–21
59%
Perquimans County at Camden Countyconf
Camden County24–21
60%
South Point at Kings Mountainconf
Kings Mountain25–21
60%
Alexander Central at Wataugaconf
Alexander Central25–21
60%
Williams at Eastern Alamanceconf
Eastern Alamance25–21
61%
St. David's at Arendell Parrott Academyconf
St. David's25–21
61%
Stuart W Cramer at Lincolntonconf
Lincolnton25–21
61%
South Columbus at South Brunswickconf
South Columbus25–21
63%
Charlotte Country Day School at Charlotte Christianconf
Charlotte Country Day School25–21
63%
Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (GA) at Christ Schoolconf
Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (GA)25–21
63%
West Carteret at Richlandsconf
West Carteret25–21
63%
Nash Central at Bunnconf
Bunn26–21
64%
North East Carolina Prep at Washington Countyconf
Washington County26–20
65%
Bunker Hill at Foardconf
Bunker Hill26–20
65%
New Hanover at Ashleyconf
Ashley26–20
66%
Northeastern at Hertford Countyconf
Northeastern26–20
67%
Bishop McGuinness at Chatham Centralconf
Chatham Central27–20
68%
Gates County at Manteoconf
Gates County27–20
68%
Community School of Davidson at Corvian Communityconf
Corvian Community27–20
69%
Statesville at South Iredellconf
Statesville27–20
70%
Butler at West Charlotteconf
West Charlotte27–20
70%
South Stokes at South Davidson Middle andconf
South Davidson Middle and27–20
70%
Alleghany at Wilkes Centralconf
Wilkes Central27–20
70%
Middle Creek at Cardinal Gibbonsconf
Cardinal Gibbons27–20
71%
East Lincoln at Hickoryconf
Hickory28–20
71%
KIPP Pride at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academyconf
Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy28–19
73%
Ravenscroft at Wayne Christianconf
Wayne Christian29–19
74%
West Stokes at East Surryconf
West Stokes29–19
74%
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology at Central Cabarrusconf
Central Cabarrus29–19
74%
Montgomery Central at Lexingtonconf
Montgomery Central29–19
74%
North Raleigh Christian Academy at Trinity Christianconf
Trinity Christian29–19
74%
Southeast Raleigh at Clevelandconf
Cleveland29–19
75%
Broughton at Wakefieldconf
Broughton29–19
75%
West Cabarrus at Cox Millconf
West Cabarrus29–19
76%
Cary at Felton Groveconf
Felton Grove29–19
77%
Carson at East Rowanconf
Carson29–19
77%
Sandhills Classical Christian at Liberty Christian Academyconf
Liberty Christian Academy30–19
77%
Panther Creek at Jordanconf
Jordan30–19
78%
Bandys at Maidenconf
Maiden30–19
78%
GRACE Christian at Asheville Christian Academy
GRACE Christian30–19
78%
D H Conley at New Bernconf
New Bern30–19
78%
North Stanly at North Rowanconf
North Stanly30–19
79%
Terry Sanford at Lumbertonconf
Terry Sanford30–19
79%
North Buncombe at Reynoldsconf
Reynolds31–18
81%
Olympic at Harding Universityconf
Olympic31–18
81%
Charlotte Catholic at Marvin Ridgeconf
Marvin Ridge31–18
82%
Hobbton at West Columbusconf
Hobbton32–18
82%
Seaforth at South Granvilleconf
Seaforth32–18
83%
Northern Nash at Huntconf
Northern Nash32–18
83%
Farmville Central at Kinstonconf
Kinston32–18
83%
Clinton at East Duplinconf
East Duplin32–18
84%
Asheboro at Eastern Guilfordconf
Asheboro32–18
84%
Swansboro at Havelockconf
Havelock33–18
85%
East Chapel Hill at Northernconf
Northern33–17
86%
Page at Grimsleyconf
Grimsley34–17
86%
Asheville at Erwinconf
Asheville34–17
86%
Palisades at Providenceconf
Palisades34–17
86%
McDowell at Saint Stephensconf
Saint Stephens34–17
87%
Eastern Wayne at North Pittconf
Eastern Wayne34–17
87%
Southside at Pamlico Countyconf
Southside34–17
87%
Union at North Duplin Jr Srconf
North Duplin Jr Sr34–17
88%
Union Pines at Tritonconf
Union Pines34–17
88%
Rocky Mount at Southern Nashconf
Rocky Mount34–17
88%
Mount Tabor at Oak Groveconf
Oak Grove34–17
88%
Jay M Robinson at West Rowanconf
Jay M Robinson35–17
88%
Harrells Christian Academy at High Point Christian Academy
High Point Christian Academy35–17
88%
Salisbury at South Rowanconf
South Rowan35–17
89%
Corinth Holders at Leesville Roadconf
Leesville Road35–17
89%
SouthWest Edgecombe at Washingtonconf
SouthWest Edgecombe36–17
90%
Martin County at Currituck Countyconf
Martin County36–16
90%
Owen at Madisonconf
Owen36–16
90%
Hibriten at R-S Centralconf
Hibriten36–16
91%
Green Level at Apexconf
Apex36–16
91%
Lee County at Harnett Centralconf
Harnett Central36–16
91%
Sun Valley at Piedmontconf
Sun Valley37–16
91%
Hoke County at Richmondconf
Richmond37–16
91%
West Henderson at Brevardconf
West Henderson37–16
91%
Greene Central at Ayden-Griftonconf
Greene Central37–16
91%
Wheatmore at West Davidsonconf
West Davidson37–16
91%
Heide Trask at Southwestconf
Southwest37–16
92%
Northwest Cabarrus at Concordconf
Northwest Cabarrus37–16
92%
Hargrave Military Academy (VA) at John Paul II Catholic
John Paul II Catholic38–16
92%
Gray's Creek at Cape Fearconf
Cape Fear38–16
92%
Green Hope at Willow Springconf
Green Hope38–16
92%
Fairmont at Whitevilleconf
Whiteville38–16
92%
Franklinton at East Wakeconf
Franklinton38–16
93%
South Caldwell at Freedomconf
Freedom38–15
93%
Pungo Christian Academy at Halifax Academy
Pungo Christian Academy39–15
94%
Western Alamance at Cummingsconf
Western Alamance39–15
94%
Hoggard at Laneyconf
Hoggard39–15
94%
Enka at Robersonconf
Roberson39–15
94%
James Kenan at Charles B Aycock
James Kenan40–15
94%
Southern Lee at West Johnstonconf
West Johnston40–15
94%
Ballantyne Ridge at Ardrey Kellconf
Ardrey Kell40–15
94%
Wayne Preparatory Academy at Northeast Academy
Wayne Preparatory Academy40–15
95%
Forest Hills at West Stanlyconf
Forest Hills40–15
95%
Starmount at North Wilkesconf
Starmount40–15
95%
Christ the King at Pine Lake Preparatoryconf
Christ the King40–15
95%
Rocky River at East Mecklenburgconf
East Mecklenburg40–15
95%
Metrolina Christian Academy at Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy]conf
Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy]41–15
95%
Langtree Charter Academy at Lake Norman Charterconf
Lake Norman Charter41–14
95%
Burns at Cherryvilleconf
Burns41–14
95%
South Central at Jacksonvilleconf
Jacksonville41–14
95%
Vance County at Heritageconf
Heritage41–14
96%
Providence Grove at East Davidsonconf
Providence Grove41–14
96%
South Garner at Garnerconf
Garner41–14
96%
West Iredell at Newton-Conoverconf
West Iredell42–14
96%
Ragsdale at Ben L. Smithconf
Ragsdale42–14
96%
Pine Forest at Pinecrestconf
Pinecrest42–14
96%
Central Davidson at T Wingate Andrewsconf
T Wingate Andrews42–14
96%
Northeast Guilford at Southeast Guilfordconf
Northeast Guilford42–14
96%
Rosewood at Midwayconf
Midway42–14
96%
South Lenoir at Penderconf
Pender43–14
96%
LCA (GA) at Lakeviewconf
no rating for one side
—
Western Harnett at South Johnstonconf
South Johnston43–14
96%
Lejeune at Jonesconf
Lejeune43–14
97%
Fuquay-Varina at Smithfield-Selmaconf
Fuquay-Varina43–13
97%
Rosman at Robbinsvilleconf
Robbinsville44–13
97%
Hobgood Charter at Triangle Math and Science Academy
Hobgood Charter44–13
97%
Independence at Mallard Creekconf
Mallard Creek44–13
97%
Monroe at Ansonconf
Monroe45–13
97%
Walkertown at McMichaelconf
Walkertown54–9
97%
Douglas Byrd at South Viewconf
South View48–12
97%
West Forsyth at R J Reynoldsconf
West Forsyth46–12
97%
Hopewell at Garingerconf
Hopewell44–13
97%
Carver at Rockingham Countyconf
Rockingham County46–13
97%
Bartlett Yancey at Reidsvilleconf
Reidsville56–8
97%
Jordan-Matthews at Southwestern Randolphconf
Southwestern Randolph45–13
97%
Crest at North Gastonconf
Crest58–8
97%
Wake Forest at Knightdaleconf
Wake Forest51–10
97%
Warren County at Weldon STEMconf
Warren County59–7
97%
North Moore at Northwoodconf
Northwood45–13
97%
Purnell Swett at Scotlandconf
Scotland47–12
97%
Dudley at Southwest Guilfordconf
Dudley45–13
97%
Hillside at Chapel Hillconf
Hillside44–13
97%
Weddington at Porter Ridgeconf
Weddington48–11
97%
North Mecklenburg at Chambersconf
Chambers46–12
97%
Hough at South Mecklenburgconf
Hough52–10
97%
Person at Southern Alamanceconf
Southern Alamance44–13
97%
Wilson Preparatory Academy at Rocky Mount Preparatoryconf
Wilson Preparatory Academy45–13
97%
Graham at Southeast Alamanceconf
Southeast Alamance57–8
97%
Providence Day at Charlotte Latinconf
Providence Day47–12
97%
E E Smith at Seventy-Firstconf
Seventy-First44–13
97%
Junius H Rose at White Oakconf
Junius H Rose48–11
97%
Glenn at North Forsyth Magnetconf
Glenn44–13
97%
Holmes at Bertieconf
Holmes49–11
97%
Carrboro at Orangeconf
Orange46–12
97%
Southern Wayne at Fikeconf
Fike49–11
97%
Cedar Ridge at J. F. Webbconf
J. F. Webb47–12
97%
Trinity at Thomasvilleconf
Thomasville55–9
97%
Surry Central at North Surryconf
North Surry48–11
97%
North Iredell at Lake Normanconf
Lake Norman61–6
97%
Tarboro at Beddingfieldconf
Tarboro57–8
97%
Millbrook at Enloeconf
Millbrook48–11
97%
Atkins at North Davidsonconf
North Davidson49–11
97%
Rolesville at Athens Driveconf
Rolesville50–11
97%
Parkland at Reaganconf
Reagan53–10
97%
East Forsyth at Northwest Guilfordconf
East Forsyth46–12
97%
Northside at Dixonconf
Northside49–11
97%
North Lenoir at West Cravenconf
West Craven52–10
97%
West Mecklenburg at Myers Parkconf
Myers Park46–12
97%
Covenant Day at Asheville School (Independent)conf
Asheville School (Independent)47–12
97%
Goldsboro at Princetonconf
Princeton55–9
97%
Northside at East Carteretconf
Northside45–13
97%
Forestview at Ashbrookconf
Ashbrook45–13
97%
Lawrence Academy at Mattamuskeet
Lawrence Academy50–11
97%
Riverside at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabiconf
Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi50–11
97%
East Gaston at Shelbyconf
Shelby50–11
97%
Avery County at Hendersonvilleconf
Hendersonville48–12
97%
Patton at East Rutherfordconf
East Rutherford44–13
97%
Andrews at Murphyconf
Murphy51–10
97%
Northern Guilford at Southern Guilfordconf
Northern Guilford52–10
97%
Ashe County at East Wilkesconf
East Wilkes48–12
97%
West Wilkes at Elkinconf
West Wilkes47–12
97%
Forbush at Mount Airyconf
Mount Airy44–13
97%
West Lincoln at Highland Techconf
West Lincoln46–12
97%
Northview Academy at Clarkston (GA)conf
no rating for one side
—
Saturday, October 17 — 3 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
Northampton County at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic
Northampton County24–21
57%
Albemarle at Bonnie Cone Leadership Academyconf
Albemarle39–15
94%
Cabarrus Stallions at Greenville Hurricanes (SC)conf
Scoring tables are as played. Adjusted tables account for the opponent, so ten points conceded to a strong offense outranks a shutout of a weak one — the two disagree on purpose.
The official NCHSAA RPI standings, as published by the association on October 10, 2026 (nchsaa.org, powered by MaxPreps): 0.4 win percentage, 0.4 opponents' win percentage, 0.2 opponents' opponents'. Records are NCHSAA's, which can differ from ours where the association has ruled on a forfeit.
Projected champions: 8A Hough · 7A Weddington · 6A Junius H Rose · 5A Jay M Robinson · 4A West Iredell · 3A Shelby · 2A Tarboro · 1A Northside
The RPI bubble: the teams whose chance of making the playoffs is between 15% and 85%, with the last teams safely in and the first teams out on either edge, listed by that chance. In is 85% or better, Out below 15%.
8A bubble — 24 of 32 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
21
South Mecklenburg
3-4-0
98%
In
0.45129
24
0.4761
22
Providence
3-4-0
98%
In
0.48851
21
0.4994
23
Wakefield
3-4-0
88%
In
0.47383
22
0.4776
On the bubble
24
Willow Spring
3-4-0
56%
Bubble
0.45544
23
0.4412
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Corinth Holders
2-5-0
25%
Bubble
0.41593
25
0.4242
26
Apex
2-6-0
23%
Bubble
0.38197
30
0.4094
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
27
East Mecklenburg
3-4-0
8%
Out
0.38931
27
0.4064
28
Athens Drive
2-5-0
2%
Out
0.38724
29
0.3776
29
Northwest Guilford
0-7-0
1%
Out
0.34833
31
0.3776
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
7A bubble — 48 of 60 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43
Independence
1-6-0
97%
In
0.45850
42
0.4351
44
Ballantyne Ridge
3-4-0
96%
In
0.48700
33
0.4440
45
East Wake
2-5-0
93%
In
0.40396
46
0.4296
On the bubble
46
Purnell Swett
3-4-0
84%
Bubble
0.40593
45
0.4248
47
South Iredell
1-6-0
84%
Bubble
0.40162
47
0.4144
48
Riverside
1-6-0
47%
Bubble
0.33633
55
0.3807
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
North Mecklenburg
2-5-0
31%
Bubble
0.35147
53
0.3842
50
Chapel Hill
2-5-0
28%
Bubble
0.36352
51
0.3814
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51
Cox Mill
2-5-0
13%
Out
0.34027
54
0.3766
52
Lumberton
1-6-0
12%
Out
0.36492
50
0.3726
53
Southwest Guilford
1-6-0
7%
Out
0.36777
49
0.3631
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
6A bubble — 48 of 58 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
42
Northern
3-4-0
90%
In
0.42523
42
0.4399
43
Terry Sanford
2-5-0
88%
In
0.40272
45
0.4343
44
Lee County
1-6-0
87%
In
0.39354
47
0.4084
On the bubble
45
Western Guilford
3-5-0
82%
Bubble
0.41195
44
0.4047
46
South View
2-5-0
73%
Bubble
0.37755
51
0.4137
47
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
3-4-0
68%
Bubble
0.42906
41
0.4156
48
Central Cabarrus
1-6-0
62%
Bubble
0.39252
48
0.4113
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Saint Stephens
1-6-0
46%
Bubble
0.36171
53
0.3872
50
Vance County
1-6-0
32%
Bubble
0.40153
46
0.3878
51
Harding University
2-5-0
29%
Bubble
0.38836
50
0.3823
52
Western Harnett
3-4-0
23%
Bubble
0.38995
49
0.3801
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53
Southeast Guilford
1-6-0
14%
Out
0.36706
52
0.3801
54
E E Smith
1-6-0
14%
Out
0.32793
54
0.3673
55
Ben L. Smith
1-6-0
0%
Out
0.29156
57
0.3304
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
5A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
North Lincoln
2-6-0
89%
In
0.44187
42
0.4465
45
Forestview
1-6-0
88%
In
0.41649
48
0.4112
46
South Brunswick
3-4-0
87%
In
0.41927
46
0.4387
On the bubble
47
Huss
3-5-0
82%
Bubble
0.42361
45
0.4148
48
East Rowan
2-5-0
78%
Bubble
0.43990
44
0.4267
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Concord
1-6-0
49%
Bubble
0.41788
47
0.4101
50
Richlands
1-6-0
28%
Bubble
0.38529
50
0.3946
51
Dixon
2-5-0
18%
Bubble
0.33918
53
0.3851
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52
North Forsyth Magnet
1-6-0
2%
Out
0.34767
52
0.3507
53
Atkins
1-6-0
1%
Out
0.37491
51
0.3546
54
North Gaston
0-8-0
0%
Out
0.28864
54
0.2960
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
4A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
Central Davidson
3-5-0
100%
In
0.40162
45
0.4078
45
Lexington
2-5-0
99%
In
0.43426
41
0.4365
46
Cummings
1-6-0
96%
In
0.39332
46
0.4074
On the bubble
47
Lincoln Charter
1-6-0
74%
Bubble
0.38484
47
0.3828
48
Carver
2-5-0
39%
Bubble
0.33189
52
0.3440
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
North Johnston
1-7-0
35%
Bubble
0.30850
53
0.3470
50
Graham
0-1-0
21%
Bubble
0.45238
37
0.3525
51
Brevard
1-6-0
16%
Bubble
0.33931
49
0.3471
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52
Ashe County
1-6-0
10%
Out
0.33443
51
0.3470
53
East Henderson
1-7-0
8%
Out
0.33794
50
0.3485
54
Carrboro
1-6-0
2%
Out
0.29920
54
0.3205
48 of 57 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
3A bubble — 48 of 56 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
Heide Trask
2-5-0
99%
In
0.35612
44
0.3443
45
Patton
1-6-0
90%
In
0.32032
45
0.3315
46
Bessemer City
1-7-0
90%
In
0.31143
46
0.3296
On the bubble
47
Bartlett Yancey
1-6-0
83%
Bubble
0.29995
49
0.3411
48
Goldsboro
0-7-0
48%
Bubble
0.28691
52
0.3137
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
McMichael
1-6-0
26%
Bubble
0.30947
47
0.3230
50
Draughn
0-8-0
26%
Bubble
0.30790
48
0.3187
51
Trinity
1-6-0
16%
Bubble
0.29902
51
0.3171
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52
Madison
1-7-0
12%
Out
0.29927
50
0.3107
53
Spring Creek
11%
Out
—
—
0.2636
54
Beddingfield
0-7-0
0%
Out
0.22622
54
0.2727
48 of 56 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
2A bubble — 48 of 46 make the field
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
1A bubble — 48 of 25 make the field
All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Winningest Coaches
North Carolina head-coaching records: every game in our archive for the seasons a coach is credited with, from HSFHA, the NCHSAA, NCHSFootball and MaxPreps, with a published stint filling a season no source names. Records outside North Carolina are HSFHA's. Still being completed: for 1980-1999 many seasons have no coach on record anywhere yet.
All-time, by NC wins
Coach
Schools
NC record
Pct
Seasons
State titles
Other states
Career
1
Jack Holley
Tabor City 1964-69, 1972-81; Hallsboro 1970-71; Wallace-Rose Hill 1982-92, 1997-2008; South Columbus 1993-96; Harrells Christian Academy 2009-10
417-126-8
.764
47
417-126-8
2
David Gentry
Edneyville 1974-83; Murphy 1984-2020
406-173-2
.701
47
9
406-173-2
3
Burton Cates
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
391-132
.748
42
1
391-132
2
Jeff Craddock
Tarboro 2004-26
261-48
.845
23
9
261-48
3
Steve Davis
Dudley 2004-26
251-60
.807
23
5
251-60
4
Richard Bailey
Jack Britt 2000-02, 2004, 2006-10; Scotland 2012-26
238-76
.758
24
238-76
5
Antonio Moore
Northeastern 2005-26
235-58
.802
22
235-58
6
Donnie Kiefer
Saint Pauls 1986-87; Southwest Guilford 1988-90; Gates County 1991-93; Andrews 1994-95; Hibriten 1996-98; Roanoke 1999-2003; East Carteret 2004-06; Tuscola 2007-11; Central Cabarrus 2012-16, 2022, 2025-26
120 simulated seasons. Results through week 8 are taken as they stand; every week after that is played out in full, with ratings refit after each one. Outcomes are sampled rather than awarded to the favorite, so upsets happen at the rate the model believes they happen. The mean rating comes back close to where the season has already put each team — a simulation learns nothing new about games nobody has played — so the 10th–90th band, not the mean, is the forecast, and it widens the further out the projection runs.