NC high school football · 2026 · week 9 · as of October 12
Title races and the RPI bubble
Which remaining games decide a conference title, and which teams are fighting for the last playoff berths. Built from the games in our database as of Monday, October 12.
Talking points
- Community School of Davidson at Corvian Community (Fri 10/16) is the biggest decider on the board this week (Catawba Shores). Corvian Community is 61% to share the title, 99% with a win and 4% with a loss; Community School of Davidson is 56% to share the title, >99% with a win and 26% with a loss. We favor Corvian Community, 60%.
- 28 conference title deciders in Week 9 (Fri 10/16). The unbeaten-versus-unbeaten ones: North Stanly at North Rowan (Yadkin Valley, 3-0 vs 4-0 in the league); Hickory Ridge at A L Brown (Greater Metro GMAC, 4-0 vs 4-0 in the league); Page at Grimsley (Metro, 3-0 vs 3-0 in the league); Middle Creek at Cardinal Gibbons (Triangle Six, 2-0 vs 2-0 in the league); Clinton at East Duplin (East Central, 2-0 vs 2-0 in the league). In each, the winner is at or near a sure share and the loser's title chance collapses.
- Hough, No. 1 in our power ratings, has a decider on Fri 10/23 (Myers Park at Hough, Greater Charlotte): 94% to share the title now, >99% with a win over Myers Park and 8% with a loss.
- Week 10 (Fri 10/23) has 29 deciders. Biggest: Reagan at West Forsyth (Central Piedmont, power 119 and 116); West Craven at SouthWest Edgecombe (Three Rivers, power 93 and 84); Garner at Clayton (Greater Neuse River, power 113 and 116); Freedom at Alexander Central (Northwestern, power 83 and 87).
- Nothing is clinched yet on the games we hold, but 7 conferences have a team above 99% to at least share it (not proven, so not called clinched). This week a win clinches at least a share for Hertford County (Northeastern at Hertford County, Fri 10/16); East Bladen (East Bladen at Lakewood, Fri 10/16); Hibriten (Hibriten at R-S Central, Fri 10/16).
- Final week's de facto title games (Week 11): Shelby at Burns (Southern Piedmont, Fri 10/30); Trinity Christian at Harrells Christian Academy (NCISAA Big East, Fri 10/30); Kings Mountain at Crest (Big South, Fri 10/30); Christ School at Cannon (NCISAA Western, Thu 10/29). The winner is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive. The decider list for that week has 33 games in all.
- No bubble in 1A (26 teams for 48 spots), 2A (46 teams for 48 spots): everyone is in on these numbers, so what is left to play for is seeding. The bubble is 8A, 7A, 6A, 5A, 4A, 3A.
- 8A: 24 of 32 teams get in. 19 are above 99% and 2 below 1%; the 6 closest calls: Wakefield 85%, Willow Spring 50%, Corinth Holders 23%, Apex 16%, Enloe 15%, East Mecklenburg 13%.
- 6A: 48 of 58 teams get in. 37 are above 99% and 4 below 1%; the 10 closest calls: Lee County 85%, Western Guilford 78%, Phillip O. Berry 70%, South View 69%, Central Cabarrus 62%, Saint Stephens 45%.
- Best bubble-versus-bubble game: West Johnston at Western Harnett in 6A (Fri 10/23). Western Harnett goes from 11% to 98% to make the field with a win; West Johnston goes from 89% to >99%.
- Can't get in by winning out (under 5% even with a sweep, in our simulations): North Lenoir (4A), Douglas Byrd (5A), North Gaston (5A); Need help even if they win out: Apex (8A), North Johnston (4A).
- Already safe (above 99% to make the field): 8A 19 of 32, 7A 38 of 60, 6A 37 of 58, 5A 39 of 57, 4A 42 of 57, 3A 43 of 56.
How to read this
Share of the title means finishing level with or ahead of everyone else in the conference on conference winning percentage (a tie counts as half a win). We do not call tiebreakers, so we never say who wins one. “Alive” means a path to a share exists. “Clinched” and “eliminated” appear only where we counted every outcome of every remaining conference game and it is proven. Percentages are whole numbers, and “<1%” and “>99%” mean not proven impossible or certain.
Win chances for tackle football come from season projection run 27 (120 simulated seasons, 3002 results, through week 8; through the week just played). The bubble tables give, for each team, the chance to make the playoff field and the chance if it wins out or loses a given number of its remaining games. Team strength is our own power ratings first.
Conference title deciders
90 deciders across 52 conferences, grouped by week. A game is a decider when both teams are alive with at least a 5% chance at a share of the title, and either side's chance moves 25 points or more between a win and a loss (or the two sides' moves add to 30 or more), or a win clinches a share, or a loss eliminates a team. Within a week, games are in date order and then by how much they move the race.
Week 9Fri 10/16 · 28 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/16 | North Stanly 3-0 / 6-0 at North Rowan 4-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: North Stanly 91 (No. 97); North Rowan 80 (No. 169) | Yadkin Valley | North Stanly 77% | North Stanly 72% now → 93% with a win, <1% with a loss North Rowan 28% now → >99% with a win, 6% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Hickory Ridge 4-0 / 6-1 at A L Brown 4-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Hickory Ridge 106 (No. 35); A L Brown 105 (No. 39) | Greater Metro GMAC | Hickory Ridge 60% | Hickory Ridge 63% now → >99% with a win, 8% with a loss A L Brown 43% now → >99% with a win, 6% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Page 3-0 / 7-0 at Grimsley 3-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Page 108 (No. 27); Grimsley 121 (No. 6) | Metro | Grimsley 73% | Page 33% now → >99% with a win, 9% with a loss Grimsley 75% now → >99% with a win, 5% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Middle Creek 2-0 / 5-2 at Cardinal Gibbons 2-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Middle Creek 108 (No. 25); Cardinal Gibbons 114 (No. 13) | Triangle Six | Cardinal Gibbons 66% | Middle Creek 38% now → >99% with a win, 5% with a loss Cardinal Gibbons 69% now → >99% with a win, 10% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Clinton 2-0 / 5-2 at East Duplin 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Clinton 76 (No. 195); East Duplin 88 (No. 105) | East Central | East Duplin 72% | Clinton 35% now → >99% with a win, 10% with a loss East Duplin 75% now → >99% with a win, 11% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Community School of Davidson 4-0 / 5-2 at Corvian Community 4-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Community School of Davidson 83 (No. 138); Corvian Community 88 (No. 104) | Catawba Shores | Corvian Community 60% | Community School of Davidson 56% now → >99% with a win, 26% with a loss Corvian Community 61% now → 99% with a win, 4% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Mount Tabor 2-0 / 3-4 at Oak Grove 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Mount Tabor 94 (No. 72); Oak Grove 108 (No. 22) | Piedmont Triad | Oak Grove 78% | Mount Tabor 34% now → 99% with a win, 15% with a loss Oak Grove 82% now → 99% with a win, 20% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Jay M Robinson 4-0 / 7-0 at West Rowan 4-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Jay M Robinson 109 (No. 20); West Rowan 93 (No. 82) | South Piedmont | Jay M Robinson 74% | Jay M Robinson 78% now → 97% with a win, 23% with a loss West Rowan 33% now → 97% with a win, 10% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Southeast Raleigh 3-1 / 6-2 at Cleveland 2-1 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Southeast Raleigh 111 (No. 17); Cleveland 119 (No. 8) | Greater Neuse River | Cleveland 70% | Southeast Raleigh 23% now → 78% with a win, <1% with a loss Cleveland 48% now → 69% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Northeastern 2-0 / 7-1 at Hertford County 3-0 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Northeastern 90 (No. 101); Hertford County 83 (No. 133) | Northeastern Coastal | Northeastern 58% | Northeastern 64% now → 94% with a win, 22% with a loss Hertford County 58% now → 100% with a win, 28% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/16 | East Bladen 4-0 / 6-2 at Lakewood 3-0 / 4-3 Our power ratings: East Bladen 64 (No. 287); Lakewood 60 (No. 303) | Carolina | East Bladen 52% | East Bladen 76% now → 100% with a win, 51% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Lakewood 48% now → 96% with a win, 4% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Seaforth 2-0 / 6-1 at South Granville 2-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Seaforth 83 (No. 143); South Granville 70 (No. 234) | Big Seven | Seaforth 80% | Seaforth 90% now → >99% with a win, 49% with a loss South Granville 21% now → 91% with a win, 4% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | West Stokes 2-0 / 4-3 at East Surry 2-0 / 3-4 Our power ratings: West Stokes 81 (No. 158); East Surry 72 (No. 217) | Northwest | West Stokes 78% | West Stokes 93% now → >99% with a win, 69% with a loss East Surry 23% now → 94% with a win, 3% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Palisades 2-0 / 6-1 at Providence 2-0 / 3-4 Our power ratings: Palisades 106 (No. 34); Providence 91 (No. 94) | Southwestern | Palisades 87% | Palisades 95% now → >99% with a win, 62% with a loss Providence 13% now → 87% with a win, 2% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 0-0 / 3-4 at Christ School 0-0 / 5-1 | NCISAA Western | Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 59% | Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 36% now → 60% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Christ School 36% now → 70% with a win, 13% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Union Pines 4-0 / 6-1 at Triton 4-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Union Pines 98 (No. 55); Triton 83 (No. 145) | Carolina Pines | Union Pines 86% | Union Pines 96% now → >99% with a win, 70% with a loss Triton 13% now → 80% with a win, 2% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Hibriten 4-0 / 7-0 at R-S Central 3-1 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Hibriten 97 (No. 61); R-S Central 79 (No. 179) | Western Piedmont | Hibriten 87% | Hibriten >99% now → 100% with a win, 97% with a lossa win clinches at least a share R-S Central 11% now → 86% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/16 | South Point 3-1 / 7-1 at Kings Mountain 3-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: South Point 107 (No. 32); Kings Mountain 109 (No. 21) | Big South | Kings Mountain 52% | South Point 34% now → 71% with a win, <1% with a loss Kings Mountain 65% now → 72% with a win, 57% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Nash Central 1-1 / 1-6 at Bunn 2-0 / 4-3 Our power ratings: Nash Central 64 (No. 281); Bunn 68 (No. 249) | Quad County | Bunn 68% | Nash Central 15% now → 44% with a win, 1% with a loss Bunn 70% now → 83% with a win, 44% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Hoggard 3-0 / 6-1 at Laney 2-1 / 3-4 Our power ratings: Hoggard 114 (No. 14); Laney 92 (No. 88) | Carolina Coast | Hoggard 88% | Hoggard 99% now → >99% with a win, 95% with a loss Laney 9% now → 77% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Northern Nash 3-0 / 5-2 at Hunt 3-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Northern Nash 107 (No. 30); Hunt 94 (No. 78) | Big East | Northern Nash 82% | Northern Nash 94% now → 99% with a win, 70% with a loss Hunt 11% now → 52% with a win, 2% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Hoke County 2-0 / 4-3 at Richmond 2-0 / 3-4 Our power ratings: Hoke County 87 (No. 112); Richmond 104 (No. 40) | Mid South | Richmond 88% | Hoke County 14% now → 56% with a win, 8% with a loss Richmond 68% now → 71% with a win, 45% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Enka 2-0 / 7-0 at Roberson 1-1 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Enka 87 (No. 116); Roberson 107 (No. 31) | Mountain | Roberson 91% | Enka 28% now → 42% with a win, 26% with a loss Roberson 38% now → 41% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | North Raleigh Christian Academy 0-1 / 4-3 at Trinity Christian 1-0 / 5-3 Our power ratings: North Raleigh Christian Academy 75 (No. 204); Trinity Christian 82 (No. 149) | NCISAA Big East | Trinity Christian 67% | North Raleigh Christian Academy 17% now → 51% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Trinity Christian 63% now → 64% with a win, 60% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Fairmont 1-1 / 3-4 at Whiteville 2-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Fairmont 63 (No. 290); Whiteville 81 (No. 159) | Southeastern | Whiteville 82% | Fairmont 8% now → 46% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Whiteville 86% now → 88% with a win, 78% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Alexander Central 2-0 / 6-1 at Watauga 1-1 / 2-5 Our power ratings: Alexander Central 87 (No. 117); Watauga 82 (No. 147) | Northwestern | Alexander Central 68% | Alexander Central 50% now → 55% with a win, 40% with a loss Watauga 12% now → 38% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | Mountain Heritage 3-0 / 5-2 at Mitchell 2-1 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Mountain Heritage 74 (No. 208); Mitchell 75 (No. 201) | Western Highlands | Mitchell 63% | Mountain Heritage 20% now → 26% with a win, 17% with a loss Mitchell 15% now → 24% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/16 | South Columbus 3-0 / 6-2 at South Brunswick 2-1 / 4-4 Our power ratings: South Columbus 70 (No. 238); South Brunswick 65 (No. 274) | Southeastern | South Columbus 62% | South Columbus 29% now → 35% with a win, 19% with a loss South Brunswick 6% now → 16% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
Week 10Fri 10/23 · 29 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | Myers Park 2-0 / 5-2 at Hough 2-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Myers Park 105 (No. 37); Hough 132 (No. 1) | Greater Charlotte | Hough 93% | Myers Park 12% now → >99% with a win, 5% with a loss Hough 94% now → >99% with a win, 8% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Southern School of Energy 2-0 / 4-2 at Hillside 2-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Southern School of Energy 102 (No. 44); Hillside 80 (No. 171) | Tobacco Road | Southern School of Energy 95% | Southern School of Energy 95% now → >99% with a win, 8% with a loss Hillside 10% now → >99% with a win, 5% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Reagan 2-0 / 6-1 at West Forsyth 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Reagan 119 (No. 9); West Forsyth 116 (No. 11) | Central Piedmont | Reagan 62% | Reagan 64% now → 99% with a win, 5% with a loss West Forsyth 51% now → >99% with a win, 22% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | West Craven 3-0 / 5-2 at SouthWest Edgecombe 3-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: West Craven 93 (No. 81); SouthWest Edgecombe 84 (No. 130) | Three Rivers | West Craven 71% | West Craven 74% now → 99% with a win, 11% with a loss SouthWest Edgecombe 44% now → >99% with a win, 22% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Garner 2-1 / 5-2 at Clayton 4-0 / 8-0 Our power ratings: Garner 113 (No. 16); Clayton 116 (No. 12) | Greater Neuse River | Clayton 54% | Garner 43% now → 94% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Clayton 68% now → 100% with a win, 29% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/23 | Lake Norman 2-0 / 7-0 at Davie County 2-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Lake Norman 121 (No. 5); Davie County 100 (No. 47) | North Piedmont | Lake Norman 91% | Lake Norman 91% now → 97% with a win, 38% with a loss Davie County 15% now → 96% with a win, 7% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Southside 2-0 / 5-2 at Northside (Pinetown) 2-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Southside 48 (No. 351); Northside (Pinetown) 77 (No. 186) | Coastal Plains | Northside (Pinetown) 97% | Southside 6% now → 94% with a win, 3% with a loss Northside (Pinetown) 98% now → >99% with a win, 42% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Freedom 2-0 / 6-1 at Alexander Central 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Freedom 83 (No. 136); Alexander Central 87 (No. 117) | Northwestern | Freedom 51% | Freedom 70% now → >99% with a win, 39% with a loss Alexander Central 50% now → 94% with a win, 8% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Westover 2-0 / 4-3 at Seventy-First 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Westover 86 (No. 119); Seventy-First 103 (No. 41) | Eastern Sandhills | Seventy-First 88% | Westover 15% now → 94% with a win, 3% with a loss Seventy-First 93% now → >99% with a win, 44% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Cannon 0-0 / 5-2 at Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 0-0 / 3-4 | NCISAA Western | Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 60% | Cannon 47% now → 84% with a win, 23% with a loss Rabun Gap-Nacoochee 36% now → 59% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | Wilkes Central 3-1 / 6-1 at Starmount 3-1 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Wilkes Central 79 (No. 172); Starmount 87 (No. 113) | Mountain Valley | Starmount 61% | Wilkes Central 21% now → 51% with a win, 1% with a loss Starmount 67% now → 94% with a win, 25% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Bunn 2-0 / 4-3 at Louisburg Magnet 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Bunn 68 (No. 249); Louisburg Magnet 63 (No. 291) | Quad County | Bunn 63% | Bunn 70% now → 90% with a win, 36% with a loss Louisburg Magnet 38% now → 78% with a win, 15% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Hendersonville 3-0 / 7-0 at Mountain Heritage 3-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Hendersonville 86 (No. 118); Mountain Heritage 74 (No. 208) | Western Highlands | Hendersonville 78% | Hendersonville 93% now → >99% with a win, 69% with a loss Mountain Heritage 20% now → 83% with a win, 2% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Wilson Preparatory Academy 2-0 / 3-4 at Sallie B Howard 2-0 / 4-2 Our power ratings: Wilson Preparatory Academy 76 (No. 197); Sallie B Howard 44 (No. 363) | Eastern Carolina | Wilson Preparatory Academy 96% | Wilson Preparatory Academy 98% now → 99% with a win, 67% with a loss Sallie B Howard 5% now → 78% with a win, 2% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Franklin 5-0 / 8-0 at Smoky Mountain 4-1 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Franklin 99 (No. 53); Smoky Mountain 93 (No. 79) | Mountain Eight | Franklin 62% | Franklin 98% now → 100% with a win, 94% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Smoky Mountain 36% now → 97% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | South Stokes 3-0 / 5-2 at Chatham Central 3-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: South Stokes 44 (No. 364); Chatham Central 51 (No. 337) | Greater Triad | Chatham Central 76% | South Stokes 20% now → 64% with a win, 6% with a loss Chatham Central 88% now → 98% with a win, 56% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Franklinton 1-1 / 6-1 at Wake Forest 2-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Franklinton 92 (No. 93); Wake Forest 106 (No. 33) | Northern Six | Wake Forest 82% | Franklinton 14% now → 81% with a win, <1% with a loss Wake Forest 93% now → 94% with a win, 91% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Wake Preparatory Academy 2-1 / 5-3 at Nash Central 1-1 / 1-6 Our power ratings: Wake Preparatory Academy 64 (No. 279); Nash Central 64 (No. 281) | Quad County | Wake Preparatory Academy 52% | Wake Preparatory Academy 23% now → 41% with a win, 2% with a loss Nash Central 15% now → 30% with a win, 1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | New Bern 1-1 / 5-2 at Junius H Rose 2-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: New Bern 100 (No. 49); Junius H Rose 111 (No. 18) | Big Carolina | Junius H Rose 88% | New Bern 7% now → 58% with a win, <1% with a loss Junius H Rose 99% now → >99% with a win, 91% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Martin County 1-1 / 6-2 at Northeastern 2-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Martin County 83 (No. 132); Northeastern 90 (No. 101) | Northeastern Coastal | Northeastern 65% | Martin County 12% now → 35% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Northeastern 64% now → 72% with a win, 48% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | T Wingate Andrews 2-0 / 6-1 at Montgomery Central 1-1 / 3-4 Our power ratings: T Wingate Andrews 93 (No. 86); Montgomery Central 75 (No. 203) | PAC Seven | T Wingate Andrews 87% | T Wingate Andrews 98% now → >99% with a win, 87% with a loss Montgomery Central 6% now → 46% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Eastern Guilford 2-0 / 3-3 at Northern Guilford 2-0 / 3-4 Our power ratings: Eastern Guilford 77 (No. 188); Northern Guilford 87 (No. 109) | TAAC Six | Northern Guilford 80% | Eastern Guilford 8% now → 39% with a win, 1% with a loss Northern Guilford 97% now → >99% with a win, 86% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Pinecrest 2-0 / 4-3 at Hoke County 2-0 / 4-3 Our power ratings: Pinecrest 101 (No. 46); Hoke County 87 (No. 112) | Mid South | Pinecrest 70% | Pinecrest 47% now → 51% with a win, 37% with a loss Hoke County 14% now → 37% with a win, 5% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Asheboro 1-1 / 6-1 at Northeast Guilford 1-1 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Asheboro 90 (No. 98); Northeast Guilford 94 (No. 77) | TAAC Six | Northeast Guilford 60% | Asheboro 8% now → 21% with a win, <1% with a loss Northeast Guilford 13% now → 22% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | West Rowan 4-0 / 6-1 at Northwest Cabarrus 4-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: West Rowan 93 (No. 82); Northwest Cabarrus 83 (No. 141) | South Piedmont | West Rowan 76% | West Rowan 33% now → 36% with a win, 23% with a loss Northwest Cabarrus 14% now → 34% with a win, 7% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Hunt 3-0 / 7-0 at Rocky Mount 2-1 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Hunt 94 (No. 78); Rocky Mount 93 (No. 83) | Big East | Rocky Mount 59% | Hunt 11% now → 21% with a win, 3% with a loss Rocky Mount 11% now → 19% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Orange 1-1 / 3-4 at South Granville 2-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Orange 64 (No. 284); South Granville 70 (No. 234) | Big Seven | South Granville 62% | Orange 10% now → 25% with a win, <1% with a loss South Granville 21% now → 25% with a win, 15% with a loss |
| Fri 10/23 | Lakewood 3-0 / 4-3 at Hobbton 2-1 / 2-5 Our power ratings: Lakewood 60 (No. 303); Hobbton 61 (No. 301) | Carolina | Hobbton 52% | Lakewood 48% now → 53% with a win, 44% with a loss Hobbton 14% now → 26% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/23 | South Brunswick 2-1 / 4-4 at Fairmont 1-1 / 3-4 Our power ratings: South Brunswick 65 (No. 274); Fairmont 63 (No. 290) | Southeastern | Fairmont 53% | South Brunswick 6% now → 13% with a win, <1% with a loss Fairmont 8% now → 15% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
Week 11Thu 10/29 to Fri 10/30 · 33 deciders, 4 marked as de facto title games
A de facto title game in the last week is one where whoever wins is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive.
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/29 | Randleman 2-1 / 3-5 at T Wingate Andrews 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Randleman 71 (No. 227); T Wingate Andrews 93 (No. 86) | PAC Seven | T Wingate Andrews 86% | Randleman 10% now → 69% with a win, <1% with a loss T Wingate Andrews 98% now → >99% with a win, 87% with a loss |
| Thu 10/29 | Christ School 0-0 / 5-1 at Cannon 0-0 / 5-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Christ School 96 (No. 64); Cannon 99 (No. 54) | NCISAA Western | Cannon 60% | Christ School 36% now → 60% with a win, 21% with a loss Cannon 47% now → 62% with a win, 25% with a loss |
| Thu 10/29 | Northeast Guilford 1-1 / 5-2 at Eastern Guilford 2-0 / 3-3 Our power ratings: Northeast Guilford 94 (No. 77); Eastern Guilford 77 (No. 188) | TAAC Six | Northeast Guilford 82% | Northeast Guilford 13% now → 16% with a win, <1% with a loss Eastern Guilford 8% now → 22% with a win, 5% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Shelby 5-0 / 6-1 at Burns 5-0 / 5-2DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Shelby 102 (No. 45); Burns 93 (No. 85) | Southern Piedmont | Shelby 74% | Shelby 78% now → >99% with a win, 13% with a loss Burns 30% now → >99% with a win, 5% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Chambers 2-0 / 7-0 at Mallard Creek 2-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Chambers 119 (No. 7); Mallard Creek 113 (No. 15) | Meck Power Six | Chambers 68% | Chambers 72% now → >99% with a win, 12% with a loss Mallard Creek 38% now → >99% with a win, 9% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Monroe 2-0 / 5-2 at Forest Hills 2-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Monroe 105 (No. 38); Forest Hills 87 (No. 110) | Rocky River | Monroe 83% | Monroe 86% now → >99% with a win, 16% with a loss Forest Hills 21% now → 99% with a win, 6% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Wake Forest 2-0 / 5-2 at Heritage 2-0 / 3-4 Our power ratings: Wake Forest 106 (No. 33); Heritage 82 (No. 154) | Northern Six | Wake Forest 93% | Wake Forest 93% now → 99% with a win, 10% with a loss Heritage 23% now → >99% with a win, 18% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Scotland 2-0 / 6-1 at Cape Fear 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Scotland 108 (No. 26); Cape Fear 93 (No. 84) | Tri County | Scotland 86% | Scotland 89% now → >99% with a win, 24% with a loss Cape Fear 18% now → 98% with a win, 4% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Trinity Christian 1-0 / 5-3 at Harrells Christian Academy 1-0 / 4-3DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Trinity Christian 82 (No. 149); Harrells Christian Academy 79 (No. 175) | NCISAA Big East | Trinity Christian 60% | Trinity Christian 63% now → 100% with a win, 7% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Harrells Christian Academy 58% now → 100% with a win, 30% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | South Columbus 3-0 / 6-2 at Whiteville 2-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: South Columbus 70 (No. 238); Whiteville 81 (No. 159) | Southeastern | Whiteville 81% | South Columbus 29% now → 100% with a win, 12% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Whiteville 86% now → 99% with a win, 30% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Richmond 2-0 / 3-4 at Pinecrest 2-0 / 4-3 Our power ratings: Richmond 104 (No. 40); Pinecrest 101 (No. 46) | Mid South | Richmond 59% | Richmond 68% now → 97% with a win, 26% with a loss Pinecrest 47% now → 97% with a win, 12% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Kings Mountain 3-0 / 6-1 at Crest 3-0 / 6-1DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Kings Mountain 109 (No. 21); Crest 107 (No. 29) | Big South | Kings Mountain 59% | Kings Mountain 65% now → 98% with a win, 17% with a loss Crest 60% now → 99% with a win, 33% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | James Kenan 3-0 / 5-1 at Wallace-Rose Hill 2-1 / 4-3 Our power ratings: James Kenan 90 (No. 100); Wallace-Rose Hill 85 (No. 125) | Swine Valley | James Kenan 57% | James Kenan 83% now → 100% with a win, 61% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Wallace-Rose Hill 42% now → 97% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Providence Day 0-0 / 6-1 at Charlotte Country Day 0-0 / 3-4 Our power ratings: Providence Day 124 (No. 3); Charlotte Country Day 90 (No. 99) | NCISAA Big South | Providence Day 97% | Providence Day 98% now → 99% with a win, 52% with a loss Charlotte Country Day 5% now → 88% with a win, 3% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Clayton 4-0 / 8-0 at Cleveland 2-1 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Clayton 116 (No. 12); Cleveland 119 (No. 8) | Greater Neuse River | Cleveland 71% | Clayton 68% now → 100% with a win, 54% with a lossa win clinches at least a share Cleveland 48% now → 68% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Lake Norman 2-0 / 7-0 at Mooresville 2-0 / 3-4 Our power ratings: Lake Norman 121 (No. 5); Mooresville 100 (No. 50) | North Piedmont | Lake Norman 91% | Lake Norman 91% now → 95% with a win, 60% with a loss Mooresville 11% now → 83% with a win, 4% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Enka 2-0 / 7-0 at Asheville 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Enka 87 (No. 116); Asheville 95 (No. 70) | Mountain | Asheville 67% | Enka 28% now → 80% with a win, 1% with a loss Asheville 92% now → >99% with a win, 78% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Jay M Robinson 4-0 / 7-0 at Northwest Cabarrus 4-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Jay M Robinson 109 (No. 20); Northwest Cabarrus 83 (No. 141) | South Piedmont | Jay M Robinson 89% | Jay M Robinson 78% now → 81% with a win, 56% with a loss Northwest Cabarrus 14% now → 75% with a win, 6% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Panther Creek 3-0 / 5-2 at Apex Friendship 4-0 / 8-0 Our power ratings: Panther Creek 85 (No. 124); Apex Friendship 100 (No. 48) | Quad City Seven | Apex Friendship 86% | Panther Creek 11% now → 74% with a win, 1% with a loss Apex Friendship 98% now → 100% with a win, 83% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
| Fri 10/30 | Providence Grove 1-1 / 4-3 at Thomasville 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Providence Grove 71 (No. 229); Thomasville 86 (No. 121) | Central Carolina | Thomasville 88% | Providence Grove 10% now → 83% with a win, <1% with a loss Thomasville 99% now → >99% with a win, 94% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Pasquotank County 2-1 / 5-3 at Northeastern 2-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Pasquotank County 71 (No. 230); Northeastern 90 (No. 101) | Northeastern Coastal | Northeastern 82% | Pasquotank County 10% now → 56% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Northeastern 64% now → 69% with a win, 38% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Oak Grove 2-0 / 6-1 at North Davidson 1-1 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Oak Grove 108 (No. 22); North Davidson 92 (No. 91) | Piedmont Triad | Oak Grove 82% | Oak Grove 82% now → 83% with a win, 75% with a loss North Davidson 14% now → 78% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Havelock 3-1 / 4-4 at Northside (Jacksonville) 3-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Havelock 92 (No. 90); Northside (Jacksonville) 108 (No. 28) | Coastal | Northside (Jacksonville) 92% | Havelock 6% now → 75% with a win, <1% with a loss Northside (Jacksonville) 99% now → >99% with a win, 94% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Kinston 1-1 / 4-3 at Tarboro 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Kinston 77 (No. 187); Tarboro 98 (No. 56) | Eastern Plains | Tarboro 90% | Kinston 7% now → 72% with a win, <1% with a loss Tarboro 99% now → >99% with a win, 94% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Louisburg Magnet 2-0 / 6-1 at Wake Preparatory Academy 2-1 / 5-3 Our power ratings: Louisburg Magnet 63 (No. 291); Wake Preparatory Academy 64 (No. 279) | Quad County | Wake Preparatory Academy 55% | Louisburg Magnet 38% now → 58% with a win, 22% with a loss Wake Preparatory Academy 23% now → 40% with a win, 2% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 3-1 / 4-4 at South Stokes 3-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 50 (No. 338); South Stokes 44 (No. 364) | Greater Triad | Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 58% | Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 28% now → 48% with a win, 1% with a loss South Stokes 20% now → 35% with a win, 9% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Northern Nash 3-0 / 5-2 at Rocky Mount 2-1 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Northern Nash 107 (No. 30); Rocky Mount 93 (No. 83) | Big East | Northern Nash 78% | Northern Nash 94% now → 98% with a win, 80% with a loss Rocky Mount 11% now → 52% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | East Forsyth 1-1 / 4-3 at Reagan 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: East Forsyth 108 (No. 24); Reagan 119 (No. 9) | Central Piedmont | Reagan 79% | East Forsyth 12% now → 60% with a win, <1% with a loss Reagan 64% now → 65% with a win, 61% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Eastern Wayne 2-1 / 5-1 at West Craven 3-0 / 5-2 Our power ratings: Eastern Wayne 83 (No. 134); West Craven 93 (No. 81) | Three Rivers | West Craven 77% | Eastern Wayne 12% now → 51% with a win, <1% with a loss West Craven 74% now → 75% with a win, 69% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | Hertford County 3-0 / 6-2 at Martin County 1-1 / 6-2 Our power ratings: Hertford County 83 (No. 133); Martin County 83 (No. 132) | Northeastern Coastal | Hertford County 59% | Hertford County 58% now → 69% with a win, 42% with a loss Martin County 12% now → 30% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Fri 10/30 | Fike 2-1 / 6-1 at Hunt 3-0 / 7-0 Our power ratings: Fike 102 (No. 43); Hunt 94 (No. 78) | Big East | Fike 81% | Fike 28% now → 35% with a win, <1% with a loss Hunt 11% now → 26% with a win, 7% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | East Surry 2-0 / 3-4 at Mount Airy 1-1 / 4-3 Our power ratings: East Surry 72 (No. 217); Mount Airy 82 (No. 150) | Northwest | Mount Airy 78% | East Surry 23% now → 32% with a win, 21% with a loss Mount Airy 24% now → 30% with a win, <1% with a loss |
| Fri 10/30 | East Wilkes 2-2 / 3-4 at Wilkes Central 3-1 / 6-1 Our power ratings: East Wilkes 83 (No. 144); Wilkes Central 79 (No. 172) | Mountain Valley | East Wilkes 55% | East Wilkes 9% now → 17% with a win, <1% with a loss Wilkes Central 21% now → 33% with a win, 11% with a loss |
The RPI bubble
NCHSAA fills each field by final RPI alone, with no automatic bids. We play out every remaining regular-season game 20,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, turn each finish into RPI with the association's formula, and count how often a team is in the field (24 in 8A, 48 in 7A, 48 in 6A, 48 in 5A, 48 in 4A, 48 in 3A, 48 in 2A, 48 in 1A). Teams listed are those with a real chance either way, plus the nearest teams on each side.
8A24 of 32 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 24th team's RPI is 0.4513 (next team 0.4159). In our simulation 19 teams are above 99% to make it, 2 are below 1%, and 11 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | 3-4 | 91 (No. 94) | 0.4885 (21) | 3 | 98% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 86% | Safe even with a slip |
| South Mecklenburg | 3-4 | 79 (No. 173) | 0.4513 (24) | 3 | 98% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 41% | Safe even with a slip |
| Broughton | 3-4 | 88 (No. 107) | 0.4930 (20) | 3 | 95% | >99% | >99% | 98% | 3% | Safe even with a slip |
| Wakefield | 3-4 | 78 (No. 181) | 0.4738 (22) | 3 | 85% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 32% | Safe even with a slip |
| Willow Spring | 3-4 | 72 (No. 222) | 0.4554 (23) | 3 | 50% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 40% | Win and in |
| Corinth Holders | 2-5 | 83 (No. 135) | 0.4159 (25) | 3 | 23% | >99% | 97% | 21% | <1% | Win and in |
| Apex | 2-6 | 81 (No. 157) | 0.3820 (30) | 2 | 16% | 53% | <1% | <1% | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Enloe | 3-4 | 81 (No. 161) | 0.4091 (26) | 3 | 15% | >99% | 98% | 29% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| East Mecklenburg | 3-4 | 73 (No. 216) | 0.3893 (27) | 3 | 13% | >99% | 70% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Athens Drive | 2-5 | 71 (No. 228) | 0.3872 (29) | 3 | 6% | >99% | 87% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Northwest Guilford | 0-7 | 72 (No. 218) | 0.3483 (31) | 3 | 1% | 81% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Garinger | 2-5 | 51 (No. 333) | 0.3876 (28) | 3 | <1% | 97% | 1% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 12, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
7A48 of 60 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3974 (next team 0.3678). In our simulation 38 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 18 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballantyne Ridge | 3-4 | 75 (No. 205) | 0.4870 (33) | 3 | 99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 67% | Safe even with a slip |
| Parkland | 3-4 | 66 (No. 265) | 0.4463 (43) | 3 | 99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 98% | Safe even with a slip |
| Independence | 1-6 | 85 (No. 126) | 0.4585 (42) | 3 | 97% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 94% | Safe even with a slip |
| East Wake | 2-5 | 71 (No. 225) | 0.4040 (46) | 3 | 94% | >99% | >99% | 82% | 1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Purnell Swett | 3-4 | 71 (No. 232) | 0.4059 (45) | 3 | 79% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 4% | Win and in |
| South Iredell | 1-6 | 75 (No. 198) | 0.4016 (47) | 3 | 72% | >99% | >99% | 60% | <1% | Win and in |
| Riverside | 1-6 | 56 (No. 318) | 0.3363 (55) | 3 | 39% | >99% | 67% | <1% | <1% | Win and in |
| North Mecklenburg | 2-5 | 85 (No. 129) | 0.3515 (53) | 3 | 38% | >99% | >99% | 40% | <1% | Win and in |
| Chapel Hill | 2-5 | 48 (No. 350) | 0.3635 (51) | 3 | 21% | >99% | >99% | 17% | <1% | Win and in |
| Cox Mill | 2-5 | 70 (No. 237) | 0.3403 (54) | 3 | 21% | >99% | >99% | 12% | <1% | Win and in |
| Lumberton | 1-6 | 64 (No. 283) | 0.3649 (50) | 3 | 21% | >99% | >99% | 29% | <1% | Win and in |
| McDowell | 1-6 | 56 (No. 322) | 0.3974 (48) | 3 | 7% | >99% | >99% | 14% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| Cuthbertson | 1-7 | 67 (No. 256) | 0.3584 (52) | 2 | 7% | >99% | 88% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Southwest Guilford | 1-6 | 62 (No. 295) | 0.3678 (49) | 3 | 6% | >99% | 99% | 1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| Cary | 2-5 | 65 (No. 276) | 0.3184 (57) | 3 | 2% | >99% | 99% | 2% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| West Mecklenburg | 0-7 | 71 (No. 223) | 0.2826 (59) | 3 | <1% | 89% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 12, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
6A48 of 58 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3925 (next team 0.3904). In our simulation 37 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 17 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watauga | 2-5 | 82 (No. 147) | 0.4360 (40) | 3 | 99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 17% | Safe even with a slip |
| West Johnston | 2-5 | 66 (No. 261) | 0.4507 (37) | 3 | 98% | >99% | >99% | 92% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Northern | 3-4 | 50 (No. 340) | 0.4252 (42) | 3 | 96% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 20% | Safe even with a slip |
| Terry Sanford | 2-5 | 75 (No. 200) | 0.4027 (45) | 3 | 90% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 6% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lee County | 1-6 | 68 (No. 247) | 0.3935 (47) | 3 | 85% | >99% | >99% | 86% | 1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Western Guilford | 3-5 | 59 (No. 307) | 0.4119 (44) | 2 | 78% | >99% | >99% | 76% | — | Win and in |
| Phillip O. Berry | 3-4 | 66 (No. 262) | 0.4291 (41) | 3 | 70% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 2% | Win and in |
| South View | 2-5 | 76 (No. 194) | 0.3775 (51) | 3 | 69% | >99% | >99% | 58% | <1% | Win and in |
| Central Cabarrus | 1-6 | 73 (No. 213) | 0.3925 (48) | 3 | 62% | >99% | >99% | 15% | <1% | Win and in |
| Saint Stephens | 1-6 | 69 (No. 239) | 0.3617 (53) | 3 | 45% | >99% | 73% | <1% | <1% | Win and in |
| Vance County | 1-6 | 59 (No. 309) | 0.4014 (46) | 3 | 32% | >99% | >99% | 98% | 5% | Win and in |
| Harding University | 2-5 | 69 (No. 241) | 0.3884 (50) | 3 | 31% | >99% | >99% | 56% | <1% | Win and in |
| Western Harnett | 3-4 | 53 (No. 331) | 0.3904 (49) | 3 | 25% | >99% | >99% | 98% | 1% | Win and in |
| Southeast Guilford | 1-6 | 67 (No. 255) | 0.3671 (52) | 3 | 12% | >99% | 99% | 2% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| E E Smith | 1-6 | 74 (No. 210) | 0.3279 (54) | 3 | 10% | >99% | 46% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Ben L. Smith | 1-6 | 56 (No. 324) | 0.2916 (57) | 3 | <1% | >99% | 86% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| East Chapel Hill | 1-5 | 37 (No. 392) | 0.2806 (58) | 3 | <1% | >99% | 2% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 12, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
5A48 of 57 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.4166 (next team 0.4097). In our simulation 39 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 14 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. F. Webb | 3-4 | 60 (No. 304) | 0.4575 (39) | 3 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 83% | Safe even with a slip |
| Person | 2-5 | 66 (No. 260) | 0.4097 (49) | 3 | 99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Southern Wayne | 3-5 | 60 (No. 306) | 0.4526 (40) | 2 | 98% | >99% | >99% | 96% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| West Carteret | 2-5 | 65 (No. 272) | 0.4469 (41) | 3 | 92% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 61% | Safe even with a slip |
| Forestview | 1-6 | 65 (No. 269) | 0.4166 (48) | 3 | 90% | >99% | >99% | 93% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| North Lincoln | 2-6 | 71 (No. 224) | 0.4419 (42) | 2 | 89% | >99% | >99% | 49% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| South Brunswick | 4-4 | 65 (No. 274) | 0.4193 (46) | 2 | 87% | >99% | >99% | 60% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Huss | 3-5 | 78 (No. 182) | 0.4236 (45) | 2 | 85% | >99% | >99% | 83% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Charles B Aycock | 2-5 | 68 (No. 251) | 0.4411 (43) | 3 | 81% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 51% | Safe even with a slip |
| East Rowan | 2-5 | 64 (No. 280) | 0.4400 (44) | 3 | 78% | >99% | >99% | >99% | <1% | Win and in |
| Concord | 1-6 | 63 (No. 288) | 0.4179 (47) | 3 | 52% | >99% | >99% | 37% | <1% | Win and in |
| Dixon | 2-5 | 65 (No. 270) | 0.3392 (53) | 3 | 25% | >99% | >99% | 33% | <1% | Win and in |
| Richlands | 1-6 | 60 (No. 302) | 0.3853 (50) | 3 | 19% | >99% | >99% | 7% | <1% | Win and in |
| Atkins | 1-6 | 49 (No. 346) | 0.3749 (51) | 3 | 3% | >99% | 87% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 1-6 | 51 (No. 335) | 0.3477 (52) | 3 | 3% | >99% | 77% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Douglas Byrd | 0-7 | 38 (No. 391) | 0.2687 (55) | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Can't get there by winning out |
| North Gaston | 0-8 | 35 (No. 396) | 0.2886 (54) | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 12, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
4A48 of 57 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3824 (next team 0.3393). In our simulation 42 teams are above 99% to make it, 2 are below 1%, and 13 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Davidson | 3-5 | 68 (No. 246) | 0.4016 (45) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 98% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Graham | 0-1 | 33 (No. 409) | 0.4524 (37) | 0 | 98% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Cummings | 1-6 | 56 (No. 321) | 0.3933 (46) | 3 | 98% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 98% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lexington | 2-5 | 66 (No. 263) | 0.4343 (41) | 3 | 97% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 77% | Safe even with a slip |
| Lincoln Charter | 1-6 | 43 (No. 375) | 0.3848 (47) | 3 | 64% | >99% | >99% | 95% | 13% | Win and in |
| Carver | 2-5 | 39 (No. 387) | 0.3319 (52) | 3 | 17% | >99% | >99% | 26% | <1% | Win and in |
| East Henderson | 1-7 | 49 (No. 341) | 0.3379 (50) | 2 | 9% | >99% | 76% | 4% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Brevard | 1-6 | 56 (No. 319) | 0.3393 (49) | 3 | 6% | >99% | >99% | 45% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| Ashe County | 1-6 | 43 (No. 373) | 0.3344 (51) | 3 | 5% | >99% | >99% | 53% | 1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| North Johnston | 1-7 | 54 (No. 326) | 0.3085 (53) | 2 | 3% | 62% | 2% | <1% | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Red Springs | 2-6 | 34 (No. 402) | 0.2893 (55) | 2 | 2% | >99% | 34% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Carrboro | 1-6 | 31 (No. 413) | 0.2995 (54) | 3 | 1% | >99% | 28% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| North Lenoir | 0-8 | 42 (No. 378) | 0.2550 (57) | 2 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 12, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
3A48 of 56 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.3078 (next team 0.2999). In our simulation 43 teams are above 99% to make it, 3 are below 1%, and 10 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Heritage | 5-2 | 74 (No. 208) | 0.5250 (21) | 3 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Heide Trask | 2-5 | 43 (No. 371) | 0.3561 (44) | 3 | 99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Patton | 1-6 | 36 (No. 394) | 0.3203 (45) | 3 | 96% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 96% | Safe even with a slip |
| Bessemer City | 1-7 | 36 (No. 395) | 0.3114 (46) | 2 | 95% | >99% | >99% | 95% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Bartlett Yancey | 1-6 | 34 (No. 403) | 0.2999 (49) | 3 | 85% | >99% | >99% | 86% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Draughn | 0-8 | 32 (No. 412) | 0.3078 (48) | 2 | 48% | >99% | >99% | 45% | — | Win and in |
| McMichael | 1-6 | 24 (No. 424) | 0.3095 (47) | 3 | 37% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 21% | Win and in |
| Trinity | 1-6 | 27 (No. 421) | 0.2990 (51) | 3 | 22% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 14% | Win and in |
| Madison | 1-7 | 39 (No. 386) | 0.2993 (50) | 2 | 9% | >99% | >99% | 1% | — | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 1 of 2) |
| Goldsboro | 0-7 | 21 (No. 432) | 0.2869 (52) | 2 | 7% | >99% | >99% | 1% | — | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 1 of 2) |
| Beddingfield | 0-7 | 29 (No. 417) | 0.2264 (54) | 3 | 1% | >99% | >99% | 9% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
| Surry Central | 0-7 | 27 (No. 419) | 0.2305 (53) | 3 | <1% | >99% | >99% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 3) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 12, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
2A46 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
2A has 46 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
1A26 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
1A has 26 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
NCISAA
NCISAA seeds eight teams per classification by MaxPreps rating. The numbers below are the latest MaxPreps release; our own power ratings and win chances are alongside.
NCISAA I10 teams, 8 berths
The cut is between Metrolina Christian Academy (8th, 38.3) and North Raleigh Christian Academy (9th, 36.0), a gap of 2.3 points. They played on Fri 9/25: Metrolina Christian Academy won 17-7.
| MaxPreps order | Team | Record | Our power | MaxPreps rating | Games left (our win chance) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Charlotte Christian | 2-4 | 85 (No. 123) | 50.6 | Fri 10/16 vs Charlotte Country Day (31%); Fri 10/23 at Providence Day (3%); Fri 10/30 vs Charlotte Latin (38%) |
| 7 | Charlotte Latin | 3-4 | 87 (No. 115) | 45.0 | Fri 10/16 vs Providence Day (3%); Fri 10/23 vs Charlotte Country Day (36%); Fri 10/30 at Charlotte Christian (62%) |
| 8 (last in) | Metrolina Christian Academy | 3-4 | 77 (No. 191) | 38.3 | Fri 10/16 at Cannon (7%); Fri 10/23 vs Christ School (18%); Fri 10/30 vs Hickory Grove Christian (68%) |
| 9 | North Raleigh Christian Academy | 4-3 | 75 (No. 204) | 36.0 | Fri 10/16 at Trinity Christian (33%); Fri 10/23 vs Wayne Christian (65%); Fri 10/30 vs Ravenscroft (80%) |
| 10 | Ravenscroft | 2-5 | 59 (No. 308) | 27.0 | Fri 10/16 at Wayne Christian (18%); Fri 10/23 vs Harrells Christian Academy (10%); Fri 10/30 at North Raleigh Christian Academy (20%) |
Ordered by MaxPreps rating, the measure NCISAA seeds on; our power ratings are reference only. Shown: the teams around the cut.
NCISAA II7 teams, 8 berths
7 NCISAA teams for 8 berths: every team is in on the numbers.
The simulation samples each game from a fixed win chance, so it does not re-rate a team after a simulated upset, and it does not model opt-outs, forfeit rulings not yet made, or the real RPI of out-of-state opponents whose full schedules we do not hold.
1 team with almost no reported games and no computable RPI today (Spring Creek) is held out of the simulated field.
Chances are good to a few points, not exact: 20,000 simulated finishes, and rarer scenarios re-run with the team's own results fixed.
Data check: records match NCHSAA for 380 of 389 teams (table dated October 12); 92 past-dated games are still unscored, 0 of them with an NCHSAA team.