2026 NCHSAA Football Playoff Projections

Week 9. The bracket is the most likely path: the field is the teams most likely to make it, the same teams above the line in each RPI bubble, seeded on their projected final RPI, and every game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts. The title odds beside it come from playing the rest of the season and the playoffs 120 times, upsets included — a 60% favorite wins this bracket every time and the title 60% of the time. Field sizes and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 48 teams in 1A-7A and 24 in 8A, split east and west by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final and the final at a neutral site.

8A

Projected champion: Hough · wins the title in 44% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
21	South Mecklenburg	3-4-0	98%	In	0.45129	24	0.4761
22	Providence	3-4-0	98%	In	0.48851	21	0.4994
23	Wakefield	3-4-0	88%	In	0.47383	22	0.4776
On the bubble
24	Willow Spring	3-4-0	56%	Bubble	0.45544	23	0.4412
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25	Corinth Holders	2-5-0	25%	Bubble	0.41593	25	0.4242
26	Apex	2-6-0	23%	Bubble	0.38197	30	0.4094
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
27	East Mecklenburg	3-4-0	8%	Out	0.38931	27	0.4064
28	Athens Drive	2-5-0	2%	Out	0.38724	29	0.3776
29	Northwest Guilford	0-7-0	1%	Out	0.34833	31	0.3776

24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Panther Creek209Laney27Laney 68% · at Panther Creek

5Green Hope3912Willow Spring15Green Hope 94% · at Green Hope

7Leesville Road3110Broughton18Leesville Road 82% · at Leesville Road

6Jordan3611Wakefield17Jordan 90% · at Jordan

Second Round

1Millbrook459Laney13Millbrook 97% · at Millbrook

4Rolesville425Green Hope14Rolesville 96% · at Rolesville

2Apex Friendship247Leesville Road21Apex Friendship 58% · at Apex Friendship

3Hoggard396Jordan15Hoggard 94% · at Hoggard

Third Round

1Millbrook274Rolesville20Millbrook 70% · at Millbrook

2Apex Friendship183Hoggard32Hoggard 84% · at Apex Friendship

Regional Final

1Millbrook303Hoggard19Millbrook 77% · at Millbrook

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8West Charlotte269Ardrey Kell20West Charlotte 66% · at West Charlotte

5Palisades4312South Mecklenburg13Palisades 97% · at Palisades

7Pinecrest3410Hoke County17Pinecrest 87% · at Pinecrest

6Myers Park3411Providence17Myers Park 87% · at Myers Park

Second Round

1Hough458West Charlotte13Hough 98% · at Hough

4Mallard Creek285Palisades19Mallard Creek 74% · at Mallard Creek

2Chambers387Pinecrest16Chambers 92% · at Chambers

3West Forsyth326Myers Park18West Forsyth 83% · at West Forsyth

Third Round

1Hough384Mallard Creek16Hough 92% · at Hough

2Chambers253West Forsyth21Chambers 62% · at Chambers

Regional Final

1Hough332Chambers18Hough 85% · at Hough

State Championship

Hough30Millbrook19Hough 77% · neutral site

Every 8A team's projection — 32 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Hough	9.9-0.1	100%	1.1	44.2%
Chambers	9.6-0.4	100%	2.0	11.7%
Millbrook	9.0-0.0	100%	1.0	28.3%
West Forsyth	8.4-1.6	100%	3.5	2.5%
Apex Friendship	9.8-0.2	100%	2.5	0.0%
Hoggard	8.8-1.2	100%	2.8	0.8%
Mallard Creek	7.2-2.8	100%	4.4	3.3%
Palisades	8.8-1.2	100%	4.6	0.8%
Rolesville	7.8-2.2	100%	3.8	8.3%
Myers Park	7.0-3.0	100%	5.8	0.0%
Pinecrest	6.3-3.7	100%	7.3	0.0%
Green Hope	7.9-2.1	100%	5.2	0.0%
West Charlotte	5.4-4.6	100%	8.1	0.0%
Jordan	6.7-3.3	100%	7.0	0.0%
Ardrey Kell	6.5-3.5	100%	8.9	0.0%
Leesville Road	5.7-4.3	100%	7.6	0.0%
Panther Creek	6.0-4.0	100%	8.1	0.0%
Laney	4.8-5.2	100%	8.3	0.0%
Broughton	5.8-4.2	100%	9.1	0.0%
Hoke County	4.8-5.2	100%	9.8	0.0%
South Mecklenburg	4.0-6.0	98%	11.7	0.0%
Providence	4.3-5.7	98%	10.7	0.0%
Wakefield	4.1-5.9	88%	10.8	0.0%
Willow Spring	3.1-6.9	56%	11.8	0.0%
Corinth Holders	2.8-7.2	25%	11.7	0.0%
Apex	3.2-6.8	23%	11.7	0.0%
East Mecklenburg	4.1-5.9	8%	12.0	0.0%
Athens Drive	2.3-7.7	2%	11.0	0.0%
Northwest Guilford	1.0-9.0	1%	12.0	0.0%
Enloe	2.4-7.6	1%	12.0	0.0%
Garinger	2.1-7.9	1%	12.0	0.0%
Green Level	1.2-8.8	0%	—	0.0%

7A

Projected champion: Weddington · wins the title in 32% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43	Independence	1-6-0	97%	In	0.45850	42	0.4351
44	Ballantyne Ridge	3-4-0	96%	In	0.48700	33	0.4440
45	East Wake	2-5-0	93%	In	0.40396	46	0.4296
On the bubble
46	Purnell Swett	3-4-0	84%	Bubble	0.40593	45	0.4248
47	South Iredell	1-6-0	84%	Bubble	0.40162	47	0.4144
48	Riverside	1-6-0	47%	Bubble	0.33633	55	0.3807
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	North Mecklenburg	2-5-0	31%	Bubble	0.35147	53	0.3842
50	Chapel Hill	2-5-0	28%	Bubble	0.36352	51	0.3814
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51	Cox Mill	2-5-0	13%	Out	0.34027	54	0.3766
52	Lumberton	1-6-0	12%	Out	0.36492	50	0.3726
53	Southwest Guilford	1-6-0	7%	Out	0.36777	49	0.3631

48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Holly Springs2117Fuquay-Varina25Fuquay-Varina 60% · at Holly Springs

9D H Conley4624Riverside12D H Conley 98% · at D H Conley

13South Central2220South Garner23South Garner 54% · at South Central

12Ashley2721Pine Forest20Ashley 68% · at Ashley

15North Brunswick2218Sanderson22North Brunswick 51% · at North Brunswick

10Cape Fear4123East Wake15Cape Fear 95% · at Cape Fear

14Heritage2519Topsail21Heritage 63% · at Heritage

11Hillside2422New Hanover21Hillside 59% · at Hillside

Second Round

1Clayton4417Fuquay-Varina13Clayton 97% · at Clayton

8Southeast Raleigh399D H Conley15Southeast Raleigh 94% · at Southeast Raleigh

4Garner4120South Garner14Garner 96% · at Garner

5Wake Forest4212Ashley14Wake Forest 96% · at Wake Forest

2Cleveland4815North Brunswick12Cleveland 98% · at Cleveland

7Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi3010Cape Fear19Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi 78% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi

3Cardinal Gibbons4514Heritage13Cardinal Gibbons 98% · at Cardinal Gibbons

6New Bern3911Hillside15New Bern 94% · at New Bern

Third Round

1Clayton278Southeast Raleigh20Clayton 68% · at Clayton

4Garner285Wake Forest20Garner 72% · at Garner

2Cleveland377Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi16Cleveland 91% · at Cleveland

3Cardinal Gibbons346New Bern17Cardinal Gibbons 87% · at Cardinal Gibbons

Fourth Round

1Clayton264Garner21Clayton 64% · at Clayton

2Cleveland273Cardinal Gibbons20Cleveland 68% · at Cleveland

Regional Final

1Clayton212Cleveland24Cleveland 56% · at Clayton

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Porter Ridge2217Jack Britt22Jack Britt 51% · at Porter Ridge

9Hickory Ridge4524South Iredell13Hickory Ridge 97% · at Hickory Ridge

13Mooresville4220Ballantyne Ridge14Mooresville 96% · at Mooresville

12Richmond3821Independence15Richmond 93% · at Richmond

15Hopewell2418R J Reynolds21Hopewell 59% · at Hopewell

10East Forsyth4723Purnell Swett12East Forsyth 98% · at East Forsyth

14West Cabarrus2219Overhills22Overhills 50% · at West Cabarrus

11Butler4422Parkland13Butler 97% · at Butler

Second Round

1Weddington4917Jack Britt11Weddington 99% · at Weddington

8Davie County209Hickory Ridge26Hickory Ridge 65% · at Davie County

4Lake Norman4013Mooresville15Lake Norman 95% · at Lake Norman

5A L Brown2312Richmond22A L Brown 54% · at A L Brown

2Grimsley4815Hopewell12Grimsley 98% · at Grimsley

7Page2210East Forsyth22Page 51% · at Page

3Reagan4819Overhills12Reagan 98% · at Reagan

6Marvin Ridge3211Butler18Marvin Ridge 83% · at Marvin Ridge

Third Round

1Weddington409Hickory Ridge15Weddington 95% · at Weddington

4Lake Norman365A L Brown16Lake Norman 91% · at Lake Norman

2Grimsley347Page17Grimsley 86% · at Grimsley

3Reagan346Marvin Ridge17Reagan 86% · at Reagan

Fourth Round

1Weddington274Lake Norman20Weddington 70% · at Weddington

2Grimsley243Reagan21Grimsley 60% · at Grimsley

Regional Final

1Weddington272Grimsley20Weddington 70% · at Weddington

State Championship

Weddington28Cleveland20Weddington 73% · neutral site

Every 7A team's projection — 60 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Weddington	10.0-0.0	100%	1.0	31.7%
Grimsley	9.7-0.3	100%	2.3	10.0%
Reagan	8.4-1.6	100%	3.4	14.2%
Clayton	8.9-1.1	100%	2.1	8.3%
Lake Norman	9.7-0.3	100%	3.9	7.5%
Cleveland	8.4-1.6	100%	2.5	10.0%
Cardinal Gibbons	7.6-2.4	100%	3.7	7.5%
Garner	7.3-2.7	100%	4.0	3.3%
A L Brown	9.3-0.7	100%	6.2	0.0%
Marvin Ridge	8.5-1.5	100%	6.2	0.0%
Wake Forest	7.8-2.2	100%	5.8	2.5%
New Bern	6.6-3.4	100%	6.0	0.0%
Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi	6.9-2.1	100%	6.9	0.8%
Page	9.2-0.8	100%	7.7	0.0%
Davie County	6.8-3.2	100%	7.5	0.0%
Hickory Ridge	8.5-1.5	100%	7.4	0.0%
Southeast Raleigh	7.2-2.8	100%	7.8	3.3%
D H Conley	6.5-3.5	100%	8.1	0.0%
Cape Fear	8.8-2.2	100%	8.7	0.0%
East Forsyth	6.1-3.9	100%	10.1	0.8%
Hillside	7.0-3.0	100%	10.7	0.0%
Butler	5.4-4.6	100%	11.6	0.0%
Richmond	5.5-5.5	100%	12.5	0.0%
Mooresville	4.3-5.7	100%	13.1	0.0%
Ashley	5.3-4.7	100%	13.4	0.0%
West Cabarrus	4.6-5.4	100%	13.7	0.0%
South Central	4.2-5.8	100%	14.2	0.0%
Heritage	5.0-5.0	100%	13.9	0.0%
Hopewell	5.7-4.3	100%	14.8	0.0%
North Brunswick	5.2-4.8	100%	16.1	0.0%
Holly Springs	4.3-5.7	100%	16.2	0.0%
Porter Ridge	3.4-6.6	100%	16.8	0.0%
Fuquay-Varina	3.5-6.5	100%	18.3	0.0%
Sanderson	4.5-4.5	100%	18.7	0.0%
Topsail	3.2-6.8	100%	18.6	0.0%
R J Reynolds	4.7-5.3	100%	18.6	0.0%
South Garner	3.7-6.3	100%	19.8	0.0%
Pine Forest	3.8-7.2	100%	20.5	0.0%
Parkland	3.4-6.6	100%	21.4	0.0%
Jack Britt	3.7-6.3	98%	17.3	0.0%
New Hanover	2.8-7.2	98%	20.7	0.0%
Overhills	4.2-5.8	98%	19.6	0.0%
Independence	1.7-8.3	97%	20.5	0.0%
Ballantyne Ridge	4.2-5.8	96%	19.6	0.0%
East Wake	3.8-6.2	93%	21.9	0.0%
Purnell Swett	4.1-5.9	84%	20.8	0.0%
South Iredell	2.4-7.6	84%	22.1	0.0%
Riverside	2.5-7.5	47%	23.8	0.0%
North Mecklenburg	2.8-7.2	31%	22.5	0.0%
Chapel Hill	2.8-7.2	28%	21.9	0.0%
Cox Mill	2.7-7.3	13%	21.6	0.0%
Lumberton	1.6-8.4	12%	22.7	0.0%
Southwest Guilford	1.6-8.4	7%	22.0	0.0%
McDowell	1.3-8.7	7%	21.9	0.0%
Cuthbertson	1.0-9.0	4%	23.2	0.0%
West Mecklenburg	1.2-8.8	2%	23.0	0.0%
Cary	2.3-7.7	0%	—	0.0%
Smithfield-Selma	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Knightdale	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%
Rocky River	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%

6A

Projected champion: Junius H Rose · wins the title in 29% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
42	Northern	3-4-0	90%	In	0.42523	42	0.4399
43	Terry Sanford	2-5-0	88%	In	0.40272	45	0.4343
44	Lee County	1-6-0	87%	In	0.39354	47	0.4084
On the bubble
45	Western Guilford	3-5-0	82%	Bubble	0.41195	44	0.4047
46	South View	2-5-0	73%	Bubble	0.37755	51	0.4137
47	Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	3-4-0	68%	Bubble	0.42906	41	0.4156
48	Central Cabarrus	1-6-0	62%	Bubble	0.39252	48	0.4113
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Saint Stephens	1-6-0	46%	Bubble	0.36171	53	0.3872
50	Vance County	1-6-0	32%	Bubble	0.40153	46	0.3878
51	Harding University	2-5-0	29%	Bubble	0.38836	50	0.3823
52	Western Harnett	3-4-0	23%	Bubble	0.38995	49	0.3801
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53	Southeast Guilford	1-6-0	14%	Out	0.36706	52	0.3801
54	E E Smith	1-6-0	14%	Out	0.32793	54	0.3673
55	Ben L. Smith	1-6-0	0%	Out	0.29156	57	0.3304

48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Westover3217Gray's Creek18Westover 83% · at Westover

9Seventy-First4624Lee County12Seventy-First 98% · at Seventy-First

13Swansboro4420Northern13Swansboro 97% · at Swansboro

12Harnett Central3121Terry Sanford19Harnett Central 80% · at Harnett Central

15Felton Grove2818West Johnston20Felton Grove 72% · at Felton Grove

10Triton2823South View20Triton 72% · at Triton

14South Johnston2519West Brunswick21South Johnston 61% · at South Johnston

11Franklinton4122White Oak14Franklinton 95% · at Franklinton

Second Round

1Junius H Rose4216Westover14Junius H Rose 96% · at Junius H Rose

8Middle Creek279Seventy-First20Middle Creek 68% · at Middle Creek

4Williams3413Swansboro17Williams 86% · at Williams

5Union Pines3412Harnett Central17Union Pines 87% · at Union Pines

2Jacksonville4715Felton Grove12Jacksonville 98% · at Jacksonville

7Southern Alamance3410Triton17Southern Alamance 87% · at Southern Alamance

3Scotland4414South Johnston13Scotland 97% · at Scotland

6Northern Nash3511Franklinton17Northern Nash 89% · at Northern Nash

Third Round

1Junius H Rose258Middle Creek21Junius H Rose 62% · at Junius H Rose

4Williams205Union Pines26Union Pines 67% · at Williams

2Jacksonville347Southern Alamance17Jacksonville 87% · at Jacksonville

3Scotland246Northern Nash21Scotland 57% · at Scotland

Fourth Round

1Junius H Rose335Union Pines18Junius H Rose 85% · at Junius H Rose

2Jacksonville243Scotland21Jacksonville 59% · at Jacksonville

Regional Final

1Junius H Rose242Jacksonville21Junius H Rose 56% · at Junius H Rose

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Ragsdale2517Reynolds21Ragsdale 63% · at Ragsdale

9Northern Guilford4424Western Guilford13Northern Guilford 97% · at Northern Guilford

13Glenn3720South Caldwell16Glenn 92% · at Glenn

12Sun Valley3821Piedmont16Sun Valley 93% · at Sun Valley

15Olympic2218Watauga23Watauga 53% · at Olympic

10Mount Tabor4023Central Cabarrus15Mount Tabor 94% · at Mount Tabor

14Eastern Guilford2019Statesville26Statesville 65% · at Eastern Guilford

11Ashbrook4522Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology13Ashbrook 97% · at Ashbrook

Second Round

1Asheville3416Ragsdale17Asheville 87% · at Asheville

8Charlotte Catholic299Northern Guilford19Charlotte Catholic 75% · at Charlotte Catholic

4Asheboro3013Glenn19Asheboro 78% · at Asheboro

5Alexander Central2012Sun Valley28Sun Valley 71% · at Alexander Central

2Kings Mountain4318Watauga14Kings Mountain 97% · at Kings Mountain

7Dudley2310Mount Tabor21Dudley 55% · at Dudley

3Roberson4219Statesville14Roberson 96% · at Roberson

6Freedom1811Ashbrook32Ashbrook 84% · at Freedom

Third Round

1Asheville238Charlotte Catholic22Asheville 52% · at Asheville

4Asheboro2112Sun Valley24Sun Valley 59% · at Asheboro

2Kings Mountain347Dudley17Kings Mountain 87% · at Kings Mountain

3Roberson3111Ashbrook18Roberson 81% · at Roberson

Fourth Round

1Asheville2312Sun Valley22Asheville 55% · at Asheville

2Kings Mountain243Roberson21Kings Mountain 60% · at Kings Mountain

Regional Final

1Asheville182Kings Mountain33Kings Mountain 85% · at Asheville

State Championship

Junius H Rose24Kings Mountain21Junius H Rose 57% · neutral site

Every 6A team's projection — 58 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Junius H Rose	9.8-0.2	100%	1.0	29.2%
Asheville	8.5-1.5	100%	1.4	0.0%
Jacksonville	6.9-2.1	100%	3.5	13.3%
Scotland	8.9-1.1	100%	3.6	15.8%
Williams	6.2-1.8	100%	4.6	0.0%
Union Pines	8.8-1.2	100%	4.9	0.0%
Northern Nash	7.6-2.4	100%	4.8	9.2%
Kings Mountain	8.1-1.9	100%	3.0	9.2%
Roberson	7.8-2.2	100%	3.1	10.0%
Southern Alamance	7.8-2.2	100%	6.8	0.8%
Asheboro	8.1-1.9	100%	3.8	0.8%
Middle Creek	7.4-2.6	100%	7.9	7.5%
Seventy-First	8.7-1.3	100%	8.5	1.7%
Triton	8.2-1.8	100%	9.8	0.0%
Franklinton	8.0-2.0	100%	10.5	0.0%
Alexander Central	8.3-1.7	100%	6.5	0.0%
Freedom	8.2-1.8	100%	7.0	0.0%
Dudley	6.1-3.9	100%	6.9	0.8%
Harnett Central	8.5-2.5	100%	11.1	0.0%
Swansboro	7.0-3.0	100%	12.0	0.0%
Charlotte Catholic	6.2-3.8	100%	8.6	0.8%
Northern Guilford	5.7-4.3	100%	10.1	0.0%
Mount Tabor	4.9-5.1	100%	10.3	0.0%
Ashbrook	5.1-4.9	100%	10.8	0.8%
South Johnston	6.2-4.8	100%	13.6	0.0%
Sun Valley	4.7-5.3	100%	11.6	0.0%
Glenn	6.3-3.7	100%	12.9	0.0%
Felton Grove	5.0-4.0	100%	15.1	0.0%
Westover	5.5-4.5	100%	15.7	0.0%
Eastern Guilford	3.6-5.4	100%	15.6	0.0%
Olympic	4.6-5.4	100%	17.0	0.0%
Reynolds	3.0-7.0	100%	16.8	0.0%
Statesville	3.8-6.2	100%	17.5	0.0%
Gray's Creek	5.2-4.8	100%	18.6	0.0%
South Caldwell	3.6-6.4	100%	19.8	0.0%
White Oak	2.1-6.9	100%	20.5	0.0%
Piedmont	3.3-6.7	100%	21.4	0.0%
West Brunswick	2.8-7.2	99%	19.7	0.0%
Ragsdale	4.7-5.3	98%	16.7	0.0%
Watauga	4.0-6.0	98%	17.4	0.0%
West Johnston	3.9-6.1	98%	19.7	0.0%
Northern	4.4-5.6	90%	19.1	0.0%
Terry Sanford	3.5-6.5	88%	19.7	0.0%
Lee County	2.0-8.0	87%	22.7	0.0%
Western Guilford	3.0-7.0	82%	23.4	0.0%
South View	3.4-6.6	73%	21.8	0.0%
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	4.0-6.0	68%	20.7	0.0%
Central Cabarrus	2.6-7.4	62%	20.6	0.0%
Saint Stephens	2.6-7.4	46%	22.2	0.0%
Vance County	1.3-8.7	32%	21.9	0.0%
Harding University	2.6-7.4	29%	22.1	0.0%
Western Harnett	3.2-6.8	23%	21.8	0.0%
Southeast Guilford	2.1-7.8	14%	22.1	0.0%
E E Smith	2.2-7.8	14%	23.5	0.0%
Ben L. Smith	1.1-8.9	0%	—	0.0%
Southern Lee	0.2-9.8	0%	—	0.0%
North Iredell	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
East Chapel Hill	1.4-7.6	0%	—	0.0%

5A

Projected champion: Jay M Robinson · wins the title in 12% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44	North Lincoln	2-6-0	89%	In	0.44187	42	0.4465
45	Forestview	1-6-0	88%	In	0.41649	48	0.4112
46	South Brunswick	3-4-0	87%	In	0.41927	46	0.4387
On the bubble
47	Huss	3-5-0	82%	Bubble	0.42361	45	0.4148
48	East Rowan	2-5-0	78%	Bubble	0.43990	44	0.4267
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Concord	1-6-0	49%	Bubble	0.41788	47	0.4101
50	Richlands	1-6-0	28%	Bubble	0.38529	50	0.3946
51	Dixon	2-5-0	18%	Bubble	0.33918	53	0.3851
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52	North Forsyth Magnet	1-6-0	2%	Out	0.34767	52	0.3507
53	Atkins	1-6-0	1%	Out	0.37491	51	0.3546
54	North Gaston	0-8-0	0%	Out	0.28864	54	0.2960

48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Rockingham County2117Montgomery Central25Montgomery Central 60% · at Rockingham County

9Rocky Mount4624Southern Wayne12Rocky Mount 98% · at Rocky Mount

13Western Alamance3320West Carteret18Western Alamance 85% · at Western Alamance

12South Granville2721South Brunswick20South Granville 69% · at South Granville

15Southern Nash3218Currituck County18Southern Nash 83% · at Southern Nash

10Havelock4223Person14Havelock 96% · at Havelock

14Orange2619J. F. Webb20Orange 66% · at Orange

11Saint Pauls3722Charles B Aycock16Saint Pauls 92% · at Saint Pauls

Second Round

1Northside4617Montgomery Central13Northside 98% · at Northside

8Eastern Alamance249Rocky Mount21Eastern Alamance 59% · at Eastern Alamance

4Fike4213Western Alamance14Fike 96% · at Fike

5Croatan4212South Granville14Croatan 96% · at Croatan

2Southeast Alamance4015Southern Nash15Southeast Alamance 95% · at Southeast Alamance

7Northeast Guilford2410Havelock21Northeast Guilford 59% · at Northeast Guilford

3Hunt4414Orange13Hunt 97% · at Hunt

6Seaforth2111Saint Pauls24Saint Pauls 57% · at Seaforth

Third Round

1Northside338Eastern Alamance18Northside 85% · at Northside

4Fike305Croatan19Fike 78% · at Fike

2Southeast Alamance267Northeast Guilford20Southeast Alamance 66% · at Southeast Alamance

3Hunt2911Saint Pauls19Hunt 76% · at Hunt

Fourth Round

1Northside274Fike20Northside 69% · at Northside

2Southeast Alamance263Hunt20Southeast Alamance 66% · at Southeast Alamance

Regional Final

1Northside302Southeast Alamance19Northside 79% · at Northside

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Carson2217West Henderson22Carson 51% · at Carson

9Hickory4924Forestview11Hickory 99% · at Hickory

13Northwest Cabarrus3520North Henderson17Northwest Cabarrus 88% · at Northwest Cabarrus

12Smoky Mountain4121North Lincoln14Smoky Mountain 95% · at Smoky Mountain

15Parkwood2418Erwin21Parkwood 59% · at Parkwood

10East Lincoln4223Huss14East Lincoln 96% · at East Lincoln

14North Davidson4219North Buncombe14North Davidson 96% · at North Davidson

11Enka4122East Rowan14Enka 95% · at Enka

Second Round

1Jay M Robinson4616Carson12Jay M Robinson 98% · at Jay M Robinson

8Forest Hills159Hickory38Hickory 93% · at Forest Hills

4South Point4213Northwest Cabarrus14South Point 96% · at South Point

5West Rowan2212Smoky Mountain22West Rowan 51% · at West Rowan

2Crest4215Parkwood14Crest 96% · at Crest

7Monroe2510East Lincoln21Monroe 61% · at Monroe

3Franklin2914North Davidson19Franklin 74% · at Franklin

6Oak Grove4111Enka15Oak Grove 95% · at Oak Grove

Third Round

1Jay M Robinson239Hickory21Jay M Robinson 55% · at Jay M Robinson

4South Point345West Rowan17South Point 87% · at South Point

2Crest247Monroe21Crest 59% · at Crest

3Franklin196Oak Grove29Oak Grove 76% · at Franklin

Fourth Round

1Jay M Robinson254South Point21Jay M Robinson 60% · at Jay M Robinson

2Crest226Oak Grove23Oak Grove 53% · at Crest

Regional Final

1Jay M Robinson236Oak Grove22Jay M Robinson 54% · at Jay M Robinson

State Championship

Northside21Jay M Robinson23Jay M Robinson 55% · neutral site

Every 5A team's projection — 57 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Northside	9.9-0.1	100%	1.6	32.5%
Southeast Alamance	10.6-0.4	100%	1.6	9.2%
Jay M Robinson	9.7-0.3	100%	2.7	11.7%
Crest	8.2-1.9	100%	3.3	5.8%
Franklin	9.6-0.4	100%	2.7	1.7%
South Point	8.4-1.6	100%	5.7	6.7%
West Rowan	7.9-2.1	100%	5.4	0.0%
Hunt	8.0-2.0	100%	4.4	0.0%
Oak Grove	8.6-1.4	100%	6.1	10.8%
Fike	8.7-1.3	100%	4.2	6.7%
Monroe	7.8-2.2	100%	7.0	2.5%
Forest Hills	8.9-1.1	100%	8.0	0.0%
Croatan	8.9-1.1	100%	4.8	1.7%
Hickory	7.6-2.4	100%	7.8	4.2%
East Lincoln	8.3-1.7	100%	9.2	2.5%
Enka	8.2-1.8	100%	9.6	0.0%
Seaforth	8.8-1.2	100%	6.6	0.0%
Northeast Guilford	7.5-2.5	100%	6.3	0.8%
Smoky Mountain	8.3-1.7	100%	11.6	0.0%
Northwest Cabarrus	7.2-2.8	100%	11.8	0.0%
Eastern Alamance	7.0-3.0	100%	8.3	0.8%
North Davidson	7.2-2.8	100%	13.2	0.8%
Rocky Mount	6.5-3.5	100%	9.3	0.8%
Havelock	4.9-5.1	100%	9.5	0.8%
Parkwood	5.2-4.8	100%	15.9	0.0%
Saint Pauls	7.1-2.9	100%	12.7	0.0%
South Granville	6.3-3.7	100%	12.9	0.0%
Carson	5.3-4.7	100%	16.2	0.0%
Western Alamance	6.2-4.8	100%	13.2	0.0%
West Henderson	4.6-5.4	100%	16.7	0.0%
Orange	5.4-4.6	100%	14.4	0.0%
Southern Nash	4.2-5.8	100%	15.3	0.0%
Rockingham County	4.7-5.3	100%	16.2	0.0%
Erwin	3.9-6.1	100%	18.0	0.0%
Montgomery Central	4.5-5.5	100%	17.3	0.0%
Currituck County	4.5-5.5	100%	16.9	0.0%
North Buncombe	4.7-5.3	100%	19.5	0.0%
J. F. Webb	4.4-5.6	100%	19.1	0.0%
North Henderson	2.4-7.6	100%	20.7	0.0%
Southern Wayne	3.4-6.6	100%	22.0	0.0%
Person	3.0-8.0	97%	22.1	0.0%
Charles B Aycock	2.7-7.3	92%	21.1	0.0%
West Carteret	3.1-6.9	91%	19.9	0.0%
North Lincoln	3.1-6.9	89%	20.4	0.0%
Forestview	2.0-8.0	88%	23.2	0.0%
South Brunswick	4.8-5.2	87%	20.9	0.0%
Huss	3.2-6.8	82%	23.0	0.0%
East Rowan	3.2-6.8	78%	21.2	0.0%
Concord	2.2-7.8	49%	21.3	0.0%
Richlands	2.0-8.0	28%	21.2	0.0%
Dixon	2.6-7.4	18%	23.7	0.0%
North Forsyth Magnet	1.5-8.5	2%	23.7	0.0%
Atkins	1.6-8.4	1%	24.0	0.0%
North Gaston	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Southern Guilford	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Douglas Byrd	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Cedar Ridge	0.3-7.7	0%	—	0.0%

4A

Projected champion: West Iredell · wins the title in 26% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44	Central Davidson	3-5-0	100%	In	0.40162	45	0.4078
45	Lexington	2-5-0	99%	In	0.43426	41	0.4365
46	Cummings	1-6-0	96%	In	0.39332	46	0.4074
On the bubble
47	Lincoln Charter	1-6-0	74%	Bubble	0.38484	47	0.3828
48	Carver	2-5-0	39%	Bubble	0.33189	52	0.3440
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	North Johnston	1-7-0	35%	Bubble	0.30850	53	0.3470
50	Graham	0-1-0	21%	Bubble	0.45238	37	0.3525
51	Brevard	1-6-0	16%	Bubble	0.33931	49	0.3471
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52	Ashe County	1-6-0	10%	Out	0.33443	51	0.3470
53	East Henderson	1-7-0	8%	Out	0.33794	50	0.3485
54	Carrboro	1-6-0	2%	Out	0.29920	54	0.3205

48 of 57 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Nash Central2217Washington23Washington 54% · at Nash Central

9Bunn4424Carver13Bunn 97% · at Bunn

13Ledford2220North Pitt22Ledford 51% · at Ledford

12Roanoke Rapids4221Jordan-Matthews14Roanoke Rapids 96% · at Roanoke Rapids

15Anson3218Southwest18Anson 83% · at Anson

10Fairmont2823Cummings19Fairmont 73% · at Fairmont

14Randleman2719Lexington20Randleman 68% · at Randleman

11Morehead2022Central Davidson27Central Davidson 68% · at Morehead

Second Round

1East Duplin4017Washington15East Duplin 95% · at East Duplin

8Southwestern Randolph249Bunn21Southwestern Randolph 59% · at Southwestern Randolph

4SouthWest Edgecombe3613Ledford16SouthWest Edgecombe 91% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

5Reidsville4712Roanoke Rapids12Reidsville 98% · at Reidsville

2T Wingate Andrews3915Anson15T Wingate Andrews 94% · at T Wingate Andrews

7Eastern Wayne3910Fairmont15Eastern Wayne 94% · at Eastern Wayne

3Clinton2714Randleman20Clinton 69% · at Clinton

6West Craven4222Central Davidson14West Craven 96% · at West Craven

Third Round

1East Duplin388Southwestern Randolph16East Duplin 92% · at East Duplin

4SouthWest Edgecombe185Reidsville32Reidsville 84% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

2T Wingate Andrews307Eastern Wayne19T Wingate Andrews 79% · at T Wingate Andrews

3Clinton176West Craven35West Craven 89% · at Clinton

Fourth Round

1East Duplin195Reidsville29Reidsville 75% · at East Duplin

2T Wingate Andrews226West Craven22T Wingate Andrews 51% · at T Wingate Andrews

Regional Final

2T Wingate Andrews215Reidsville25Reidsville 63% · at T Wingate Andrews

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16North Surry2017Newton-Conover27Newton-Conover 69% · at North Surry

9R-S Central4724Lincoln Charter12R-S Central 98% · at R-S Central

13South Rowan2220Bunker Hill22South Rowan 51% · at South Rowan

12Wilkes Central4121East Gaston15Wilkes Central 95% · at Wilkes Central

15West Stanly2218Foard23Foard 54% · at West Stanly

10Pisgah4123Salisbury14Pisgah 95% · at Pisgah

14Maiden3019Bandys19Maiden 78% · at Maiden

11Stuart W Cramer4822Forbush12Stuart W Cramer 98% · at Stuart W Cramer

Second Round

1West Iredell4217Newton-Conover14West Iredell 96% · at West Iredell

8East Burke199R-S Central29R-S Central 74% · at East Burke

4Burns4013South Rowan15Burns 95% · at Burns

5Mount Pleasant2512Wilkes Central21Mount Pleasant 63% · at Mount Pleasant

2Tuscola4518Foard13Tuscola 98% · at Tuscola

7Lake Norman Charter1810Pisgah31Pisgah 81% · at Lake Norman Charter

3Hibriten3514Maiden17Hibriten 88% · at Hibriten

6West Stokes1911Stuart W Cramer30Stuart W Cramer 78% · at West Stokes

Third Round

1West Iredell409R-S Central15West Iredell 94% · at West Iredell

4Burns315Mount Pleasant18Burns 80% · at Burns

2Tuscola3810Pisgah16Tuscola 93% · at Tuscola

3Hibriten2711Stuart W Cramer20Hibriten 69% · at Hibriten

Fourth Round

1West Iredell284Burns20West Iredell 72% · at West Iredell

2Tuscola243Hibriten21Tuscola 56% · at Tuscola

Regional Final

1West Iredell242Tuscola21West Iredell 56% · at West Iredell

State Championship

West Iredell23Reidsville21West Iredell 55% · neutral site

Every 4A team's projection — 57 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
West Iredell	9.9-0.1	100%	1.1	25.8%
Tuscola	9.0-1.0	100%	2.4	15.0%
East Duplin	8.8-1.2	100%	1.4	5.0%
Hibriten	9.8-0.1	100%	2.6	10.0%
T Wingate Andrews	8.8-1.2	100%	2.7	19.2%
Clinton	7.0-3.0	100%	3.0	0.0%
Burns	7.3-2.7	100%	4.5	1.7%
SouthWest Edgecombe	7.2-1.8	100%	3.9	3.3%
Reidsville	7.0-3.0	100%	5.2	11.7%
West Craven	7.4-2.6	100%	5.3	7.5%
Mount Pleasant	6.4-3.6	100%	7.1	0.0%
West Stokes	6.6-3.4	100%	7.7	0.0%
Lake Norman Charter	6.8-3.2	100%	7.8	0.0%
East Burke	6.2-3.8	100%	8.8	0.0%
R-S Central	6.9-3.1	100%	9.0	0.0%
Pisgah	6.0-4.0	100%	10.0	0.0%
Stuart W Cramer	7.3-2.7	100%	9.7	0.8%
Wilkes Central	7.4-2.6	100%	10.6	0.0%
Eastern Wayne	7.0-2.0	100%	8.0	0.0%
Southwestern Randolph	7.5-2.5	100%	7.7	0.0%
South Rowan	6.0-4.0	100%	11.6	0.0%
Bunn	5.9-4.1	100%	10.7	0.0%
Maiden	4.7-5.3	100%	14.6	0.0%
Fairmont	4.7-5.3	100%	11.2	0.0%
Morehead	5.4-4.6	100%	11.4	0.0%
Roanoke Rapids	4.8-5.2	100%	12.0	0.0%
West Stanly	3.4-6.6	100%	15.3	0.0%
North Surry	5.0-5.0	100%	15.8	0.0%
Ledford	3.9-6.1	100%	13.8	0.0%
Randleman	3.6-6.4	100%	13.9	0.0%
Newton-Conover	3.8-6.2	100%	17.6	0.0%
Foard	3.3-6.7	100%	18.0	0.0%
Anson	4.3-5.7	100%	16.2	0.0%
Nash Central	2.9-7.1	100%	15.9	0.0%
Bandys	3.2-6.8	100%	19.3	0.0%
Bunker Hill	4.0-6.0	100%	19.2	0.0%
East Gaston	4.4-5.6	100%	20.0	0.0%
Washington	2.7-7.3	100%	17.3	0.0%
Southwest	3.9-6.1	100%	18.3	0.0%
Forbush	4.3-5.7	100%	20.9	0.0%
North Pitt	3.7-6.3	100%	18.9	0.0%
Salisbury	1.5-8.5	100%	21.6	0.0%
Jordan-Matthews	4.0-6.0	100%	20.7	0.0%
Central Davidson	3.4-6.6	100%	21.5	0.0%
Lexington	3.5-6.5	99%	17.9	0.0%
Cummings	2.0-9.0	96%	21.2	0.0%
Lincoln Charter	1.9-8.1	74%	23.2	0.0%
Carver	2.5-7.5	39%	23.7	0.0%
North Johnston	1.8-8.2	35%	23.8	0.0%
Graham	0.2-6.8	21%	21.2	0.0%
Brevard	1.1-8.8	16%	23.9	0.0%
Ashe County	1.1-8.9	10%	23.9	0.0%
East Henderson	1.0-9.0	8%	23.9	0.0%
Carrboro	1.7-8.3	2%	23.7	0.0%
Red Springs	2.0-8.0	0%	—	0.0%
First Flight	0.0-9.0	0%	—	0.0%
North Lenoir	0.2-9.8	0%	—	0.0%

3A

Projected champion: Shelby · wins the title in 40% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44	Heide Trask	2-5-0	99%	In	0.35612	44	0.3443
45	Patton	1-6-0	90%	In	0.32032	45	0.3315
46	Bessemer City	1-7-0	90%	In	0.31143	46	0.3296
On the bubble
47	Bartlett Yancey	1-6-0	83%	Bubble	0.29995	49	0.3411
48	Goldsboro	0-7-0	48%	Bubble	0.28691	52	0.3137
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	McMichael	1-6-0	26%	Bubble	0.30947	47	0.3230
50	Draughn	0-8-0	26%	Bubble	0.30790	48	0.3187
51	Trinity	1-6-0	16%	Bubble	0.29902	51	0.3171
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52	Madison	1-7-0	12%	Out	0.29927	50	0.3107
53	Spring Creek		11%	Out	—	—	0.2636
54	Beddingfield	0-7-0	0%	Out	0.22622	54	0.2727

48 of 56 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Kinston3217Farmville Central18Kinston 83% · at Kinston

9South Columbus5124Goldsboro10South Columbus 99% · at South Columbus

13Greene Central3820Ayden-Grifton15Greene Central 93% · at Greene Central

12Princeton5121North Moore10Princeton 99% · at Princeton

15Northwood2118Pender25Pender 63% · at Northwood

10Pasquotank County4723Bartlett Yancey12Pasquotank County 98% · at Pasquotank County

14Wake Preparatory Academy4119South Lenoir14Wake Preparatory Academy 95% · at Wake Preparatory Academy

11Louisburg Magnet3922Heide Trask15Louisburg Magnet 93% · at Louisburg Magnet

Second Round

1Midway2716Kinston20Midway 70% · at Midway

8Wallace-Rose Hill359South Columbus17Wallace-Rose Hill 89% · at Wallace-Rose Hill

4James Kenan3113Greene Central18James Kenan 80% · at James Kenan

5Eastern Randolph2812Princeton20Eastern Randolph 72% · at Eastern Randolph

2Whiteville3418Pender17Whiteville 86% · at Whiteville

7Martin County3310Pasquotank County18Martin County 85% · at Martin County

3Northeastern4214Wake Preparatory Academy14Northeastern 96% · at Northeastern

6Hertford County4011Louisburg Magnet15Hertford County 94% · at Hertford County

Third Round

1Midway218Wallace-Rose Hill23Wallace-Rose Hill 56% · at Midway

4James Kenan245Eastern Randolph21James Kenan 60% · at James Kenan

2Whiteville227Martin County23Martin County 55% · at Whiteville

3Northeastern286Hertford County20Northeastern 72% · at Northeastern

Fourth Round

4James Kenan278Wallace-Rose Hill20James Kenan 67% · at James Kenan

3Northeastern287Martin County20Northeastern 71% · at Northeastern

Regional Final

3Northeastern224James Kenan22Northeastern 52% · at Northeastern

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16North Wilkes2217East Rutherford23East Rutherford 54% · at North Wilkes

9West Wilkes4624Bessemer City13West Wilkes 98% · at West Wilkes

13Union Academy3020Wheatmore19Union Academy 79% · at Union Academy

12Mountain Heritage4421East Davidson13Mountain Heritage 97% · at Mountain Heritage

15East Surry3818Pine Lake Preparatory16East Surry 93% · at East Surry

10Providence Grove4623Patton12Providence Grove 98% · at Providence Grove

14Owen2119West Lincoln24West Lincoln 59% · at Owen

11West Davidson3722Polk County16West Davidson 92% · at West Davidson

Second Round

1North Stanly4217East Rutherford14North Stanly 96% · at North Stanly

8Chase239West Wilkes22Chase 53% · at Chase

4Walkertown3913Union Academy15Walkertown 94% · at Walkertown

5Thomasville3212Mountain Heritage18Thomasville 84% · at Thomasville

2Shelby4415East Surry13Shelby 97% · at Shelby

7Mount Airy3210Providence Grove18Mount Airy 83% · at Mount Airy

3Hendersonville4219West Lincoln14Hendersonville 96% · at Hendersonville

6Lincolnton4211West Davidson14Lincolnton 96% · at Lincolnton

Third Round

1North Stanly418Chase14North Stanly 95% · at North Stanly

4Walkertown215Thomasville24Thomasville 59% · at Walkertown

2Shelby397Mount Airy15Shelby 93% · at Shelby

3Hendersonville206Lincolnton28Lincolnton 72% · at Hendersonville

Fourth Round

1North Stanly275Thomasville20North Stanly 69% · at North Stanly

2Shelby296Lincolnton19Shelby 75% · at Shelby

Regional Final

1North Stanly192Shelby30Shelby 79% · at North Stanly

State Championship

Shelby32Northeastern18Shelby 83% · neutral site

Every 3A team's projection — 56 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
North Stanly	8.7-0.3	100%	1.2	6.7%
Midway	8.9-1.1	100%	1.3	3.3%
Shelby	8.6-1.4	100%	2.1	40.0%
Whiteville	9.7-0.3	100%	2.3	1.7%
Hendersonville	9.8-0.2	100%	2.9	0.0%
Northeastern	8.1-1.9	100%	4.0	8.3%
James Kenan	7.2-1.8	100%	4.4	10.8%
Walkertown	8.9-1.1	100%	4.1	1.7%
Thomasville	8.8-1.2	100%	5.2	3.3%
Eastern Randolph	7.0-3.0	100%	5.3	2.5%
Hertford County	7.0-3.0	100%	6.0	3.3%
Lincolnton	7.7-2.3	100%	6.2	12.5%
Martin County	7.7-3.3	100%	6.7	1.7%
Wallace-Rose Hill	5.3-3.7	100%	8.1	0.8%
Mount Airy	6.7-3.3	100%	7.4	0.0%
South Columbus	6.8-3.2	100%	9.8	0.0%
Chase	7.4-2.6	100%	9.1	0.0%
Pasquotank County	5.8-4.2	100%	11.0	0.0%
West Wilkes	6.6-3.4	100%	9.8	0.0%
Louisburg Magnet	7.3-2.7	100%	11.6	0.0%
Providence Grove	6.0-4.0	100%	11.2	0.0%
West Davidson	6.8-3.2	100%	10.4	0.0%
Mountain Heritage	6.1-3.9	100%	11.0	0.0%
Princeton	6.3-4.7	100%	12.1	2.5%
Union Academy	6.4-3.6	100%	11.3	0.0%
Greene Central	6.7-3.3	100%	13.2	0.8%
Wake Preparatory Academy	6.0-4.0	100%	14.0	0.0%
Northwood	4.9-5.1	100%	14.0	0.0%
Kinston	5.9-4.1	100%	15.9	0.0%
Owen	5.2-4.8	100%	14.0	0.0%
East Surry	4.4-5.6	100%	14.3	0.0%
North Wilkes	4.7-5.3	100%	14.9	0.0%
Farmville Central	4.0-6.0	100%	16.9	0.0%
East Rutherford	2.5-7.5	100%	16.8	0.0%
Pine Lake Preparatory	4.7-5.3	100%	16.9	0.0%
West Lincoln	3.6-6.4	100%	18.5	0.0%
Pender	3.8-6.2	100%	18.7	0.0%
Wheatmore	3.2-6.8	100%	19.6	0.0%
East Davidson	3.1-6.9	100%	19.5	0.0%
South Lenoir	4.2-6.8	100%	20.0	0.0%
Ayden-Grifton	2.5-7.5	100%	20.5	0.0%
Polk County	2.6-7.4	100%	21.3	0.0%
North Moore	0.0-10.0	100%	21.8	0.0%
Heide Trask	2.1-7.8	99%	22.8	0.0%
Patton	1.1-8.9	90%	23.1	0.0%
Bessemer City	1.0-9.0	90%	23.1	0.0%
Bartlett Yancey	2.3-7.7	83%	22.6	0.0%
Goldsboro	0.6-9.4	48%	23.6	0.0%
McMichael	1.2-8.8	26%	22.6	0.0%
Draughn	0.0-10.0	26%	23.8	0.0%
Trinity	1.1-8.9	16%	23.2	0.0%
Madison	1.1-8.9	12%	22.6	0.0%
Spring Creek	0.5-3.5	11%	19.9	0.0%
Beddingfield	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Surry Central	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
West Bladen	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%

2A

Projected champion: Tarboro · wins the title in 58% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.

Projected bracket

46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-9

16East Carteret2717Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic20East Carteret 69% · at East Carteret

13Rosewood4220Pamlico County14Rosewood 96% · at Rosewood

12Bertie3221Lejeune18Bertie 83% · at Bertie

15West Columbus2718Northampton County20West Columbus 70% · at West Columbus

10Hobbton4223American Leadership Academy - Johnston14Hobbton 96% · at Hobbton

14Perquimans County2719Union20Perquimans County 70% · at Perquimans County

11Camden County4922Triangle Math and Science Academy11Camden County 99% · at Camden County

Second Round

1Tarboro5316East Carteret10Tarboro 99% · at Tarboro

8Gates County299North Duplin Jr Sr19Gates County 75% · at Gates County

4East Bladen2713Rosewood20East Bladen 70% · at East Bladen

5Lakewood3512Bertie17Lakewood 89% · at Lakewood

2Holmes4815West Columbus12Holmes 98% · at Holmes

7Southside1810Hobbton32Hobbton 83% · at Southside

3Warren County4914Perquimans County11Warren County 99% · at Warren County

6Manteo2911Camden County19Manteo 74% · at Manteo

Third Round

1Tarboro468Gates County12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro

4East Bladen265Lakewood20East Bladen 65% · at East Bladen

2Holmes4310Hobbton13Holmes 97% · at Holmes

3Warren County466Manteo13Warren County 98% · at Warren County

Fourth Round

1Tarboro464East Bladen12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro

2Holmes213Warren County24Warren County 58% · at Holmes

Regional Final

1Tarboro293Warren County19Tarboro 74% · at Tarboro

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-9

16Bishop McGuinness2217Avery County23Avery County 54% · at Bishop McGuinness

13South Stokes3420Elkin17South Stokes 88% · at South Stokes

12Cherryville4221Bradford Preparatory14Cherryville 96% · at Cherryville

15Albemarle2618Langtree Charter Academy20Albemarle 64% · at Albemarle

10East Wilkes5423Highland Tech9East Wilkes 99% · at East Wilkes

14Swain County3319South Stanly18Swain County 84% · at Swain County

11Cherokee4322Hayesville13Cherokee 97% · at Cherokee

Second Round

1Corvian Community4817Avery County11Corvian Community 99% · at Corvian Community

8Mitchell319Mountain Island Charter18Mitchell 81% · at Mitchell

4Community School of Davidson4813South Stokes12Community School of Davidson 98% · at Community School of Davidson

5Murphy3212Cherryville18Murphy 84% · at Murphy

2Starmount4715Albemarle12Starmount 98% · at Starmount

7Christ the King2010East Wilkes26East Wilkes 66% · at Christ the King

3North Rowan3814Swain County16North Rowan 93% · at North Rowan

6Alleghany3211Cherokee18Alleghany 84% · at Alleghany

Third Round

1Corvian Community338Mitchell17Corvian Community 86% · at Corvian Community

4Community School of Davidson255Murphy21Community School of Davidson 62% · at Community School of Davidson

2Starmount2610East Wilkes20Starmount 66% · at Starmount

3North Rowan286Alleghany20North Rowan 72% · at North Rowan

Fourth Round

1Corvian Community274Community School of Davidson20Corvian Community 69% · at Corvian Community

2Starmount283North Rowan19Starmount 73% · at Starmount

Regional Final

1Corvian Community242Starmount21Corvian Community 57% · at Corvian Community

State Championship

Tarboro30Corvian Community19Tarboro 79% · neutral site

Every 2A team's projection — 46 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Tarboro	8.9-1.1	100%	1.2	58.3%
Corvian Community	8.3-1.7	100%	2.1	7.5%
Starmount	8.6-1.4	100%	2.0	4.2%
Holmes	7.9-1.1	100%	2.1	7.5%
Warren County	10.0-0.0	100%	2.7	18.3%
North Rowan	8.1-1.9	100%	3.6	0.8%
Community School of Davidson	7.4-2.6	100%	4.0	0.8%
Murphy	8.0-2.0	100%	4.8	1.7%
Alleghany	7.1-2.9	100%	5.5	0.0%
East Bladen	7.4-2.6	100%	4.8	0.0%
Christ the King	7.2-2.8	100%	7.7	0.0%
Mitchell	7.6-2.4	100%	8.2	0.0%
Mountain Island Charter	7.7-2.3	100%	9.0	0.0%
Lakewood	6.0-4.0	100%	6.4	0.0%
Manteo	6.1-3.9	100%	6.7	0.0%
Southside	6.7-3.3	100%	6.9	0.0%
East Wilkes	5.5-4.5	100%	10.2	0.8%
Cherokee	5.9-4.1	100%	10.3	0.0%
Gates County	5.4-4.6	100%	7.1	0.0%
North Duplin Jr Sr	6.1-3.9	100%	7.5	0.0%
Cherryville	6.1-3.9	100%	11.2	0.0%
South Stokes	5.9-4.1	100%	12.9	0.0%
Hobbton	3.8-6.2	100%	12.0	0.0%
Camden County	4.0-6.0	100%	12.2	0.0%
Bertie	2.5-7.5	100%	13.3	0.0%
Rosewood	4.1-6.9	100%	13.5	0.0%
Swain County	3.0-7.0	100%	15.2	0.0%
Albemarle	3.6-6.4	100%	15.3	0.0%
Perquimans County	3.0-7.0	100%	14.9	0.0%
West Columbus	2.8-6.2	100%	15.2	0.0%
East Carteret	3.7-6.3	100%	15.2	0.0%
Bishop McGuinness	4.0-6.0	100%	16.0	0.0%
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic	3.9-6.1	100%	16.4	0.0%
Avery County	3.5-6.5	100%	16.9	0.0%
Langtree Charter Academy	3.1-6.9	100%	17.4	0.0%
Northampton County	2.5-7.5	100%	17.8	0.0%
Union	3.8-6.2	100%	17.8	0.0%
Pamlico County	2.9-7.2	100%	18.1	0.0%
South Stanly	2.5-7.5	100%	18.0	0.0%
Lejeune	2.7-6.3	100%	19.5	0.0%
Elkin	2.0-8.0	100%	20.8	0.0%
Triangle Math and Science Academy	2.0-6.0	100%	21.5	0.0%
Bradford Preparatory	1.6-8.4	100%	20.9	0.0%
Hayesville	1.4-7.6	100%	21.2	0.0%
American Leadership Academy - Johnston	1.1-7.9	100%	22.8	0.0%
Highland Tech	0.0-10.0	100%	23.0	0.0%

1A

Projected champion: Northside · wins the title in 60% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.

Projected bracket

25 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-3

8North East Carolina Prep219Washington County24Washington County 60% · at North East Carolina Prep

4Sallie B Howard4313Weldon STEM13Sallie B Howard 97% · at Sallie B Howard

5Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy4712Jones12Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 98% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy

7KIPP Pride2910Bear Grass Charter19KIPP Pride 76% · at KIPP Pride

6Columbia3911Mattamuskeet15Columbia 94% · at Columbia

Second Round

1Northside479Washington County12Northside 98% · at Northside

4Sallie B Howard255Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy21Sallie B Howard 61% · at Sallie B Howard

2Hobgood Charter277KIPP Pride20Hobgood Charter 70% · at Hobgood Charter

3North Edgecombe386Columbia16North Edgecombe 92% · at North Edgecombe

Third Round

1Northside464Sallie B Howard13Northside 98% · at Northside

2Hobgood Charter213North Edgecombe25North Edgecombe 60% · at Hobgood Charter

Regional Final

1Northside453North Edgecombe13Northside 98% · at Northside

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy229College Prep and Leadership Academy23College Prep and Leadership Academy 53% · at Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy

5South Davidson Middle and4312North Stokes13South Davidson Middle and 97% · at South Davidson Middle and

7Rosman3510Andrews17Rosman 89% · at Rosman

6East Columbus Junior-Senior2111Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy25Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 62% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior

Second Round

1Chatham Central409College Prep and Leadership Academy15Chatham Central 95% · at Chatham Central

4Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad235South Davidson Middle and22Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 54% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad

2Wilson Preparatory Academy437Rosman13Wilson Preparatory Academy 97% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

3Robbinsville4411Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy13Robbinsville 97% · at Robbinsville

Third Round

1Chatham Central234Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad22Chatham Central 54% · at Chatham Central

2Wilson Preparatory Academy223Robbinsville22Wilson Preparatory Academy 51% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

Regional Final

1Chatham Central142Wilson Preparatory Academy41Wilson Preparatory Academy 96% · at Chatham Central

State Championship

Northside23Wilson Preparatory Academy22Northside 55% · neutral site

Every 1A team's projection — 25 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Northside	10.0-0.0	100%	1.0	60.0%
Chatham Central	9.3-0.7	100%	1.2	1.7%
Wilson Preparatory Academy	5.9-4.1	100%	1.8	26.7%
Hobgood Charter	7.8-2.2	100%	2.2	0.0%
Robbinsville	4.7-5.3	100%	3.5	11.7%
North Edgecombe	5.6-4.4	100%	3.7	0.0%
Sallie B Howard	6.2-3.8	100%	4.1	0.0%
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad	5.6-4.4	100%	4.5	0.0%
South Davidson Middle and	5.9-4.1	100%	5.5	0.0%
East Columbus Junior-Senior	3.3-6.7	100%	6.3	0.0%
Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy	4.2-5.8	100%	5.8	0.0%
Columbia	5.1-4.9	100%	5.9	0.0%
KIPP Pride	3.5-6.5	100%	6.5	0.0%
North East Carolina Prep	4.3-5.7	100%	6.4	0.0%
Rosman	4.5-5.5	100%	7.0	0.0%
Washington County	2.8-7.2	100%	7.5	0.0%
Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy	1.1-8.9	100%	8.7	0.0%
Bear Grass Charter	1.9-8.1	100%	9.6	0.0%
Mattamuskeet	0.2-8.8	100%	10.2	0.0%
College Prep and Leadership Academy	0.9-8.1	100%	10.6	0.0%
Andrews	0.6-8.4	100%	10.5	0.0%
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy	1.0-8.0	100%	10.8	0.0%
North Stokes	0.4-9.6	100%	11.8	0.0%
Jones	0.1-10.9	100%	11.8	0.0%
Weldon STEM	0.2-8.8	100%	12.0	0.0%