Work in progress. This report is in active development.
Ratings and projections will change as the system is refined, and some
sections are not yet complete.
Ratings basis: 2645 2026 results, seeded with 2025Home field: +1.1 ptsGenerated October 06, 2026
Programs That Ended Their Season
First Flight (Kill Devil Hills) stopped on September 18 at 0-4: not enough players to continue the varsity season safely. The Outer Banks Voice
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy (Mooresboro) stopped on September 23 at 1-3: a large number of serious injuries and too few players remaining. WBTV
West Bladen (Bladenboro) stopped on September 24 at 0-5: not enough healthy players to take the field safely. WITN
Under NCHSAA rules, a school that stops mid-season forfeits each conference game it has left, and those count as wins for the opponents. Its other remaining games are no contest and count for no one.
Week 8 Projections
198 games. Sorted with the closest matchups first.
Thursday, October 8 — 3 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
South Davidson Middle and at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acadconf
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad22–22
50%
John Paul II Catholic at Faith Christianconf
John Paul II Catholic24–21
59%
Charlotte Latin at Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy]
Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy]36–16
90%
Friday, October 9 — 194 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
South View at E E Smithconf
South View22–22
50%
Father Capodanno at Community Christianconf
Community Christian22–22
50%
Knightdale at Vance Countyconf
Knightdale23–22
52%
Roanoke Rapids at Nash Centralconf
Nash Central23–22
53%
Newton-Conover at Bunker Hillconf
Bunker Hill23–22
54%
Southeast Alamance at Williamsconf
Southeast Alamance23–22
55%
Murphy at Robbinsvilleconf
Murphy23–22
55%
Jacksonville at Junius H Roseconf
Junius H Rose23–21
55%
Charlotte Catholic at Sun Valleyconf
Sun Valley24–21
56%
North Edgecombe at Washington Countyconf
North Edgecombe24–21
56%
East Davidson at Wheatmoreconf
Wheatmore24–21
57%
Bunn at Wake Preparatory Academyconf
Bunn24–21
58%
Orange at J. F. Webbconf
Orange24–21
58%
St. David's at GRACE Christian
St. David's25–21
60%
North Wake Saints at South Wake Christian Athletics
South Wake Christian Athletics25–21
61%
Ashley at North Brunswickconf
North Brunswick25–21
61%
High Point Christian Academy at Asheville School (Independent)conf
High Point Christian Academy25–21
62%
Harding University at Phillip O Berry Academy of Technologyconf
Harding University25–21
62%
East Rutherford at Chaseconf
Chase25–21
62%
Cherryville at East Gastonconf
Cherryville25–21
63%
Greene Central at Kinstonconf
Kinston25–21
63%
North Surry at East Surryconf
East Surry25–21
63%
Montgomery Central at Ledfordconf
Montgomery Central26–21
64%
West Brunswick at New Hanoverconf
New Hanover26–21
64%
Central Davidson at Randlemanconf
Randleman26–21
64%
South Central at D H Conleyconf
D H Conley26–20
66%
Rocky Mount Preparatory at Sallie B Howardconf
Rocky Mount Preparatory26–20
66%
East Henderson at Brevardconf
Brevard26–20
67%
Midway at Wallace-Rose Hillconf
Wallace-Rose Hill26–20
67%
Camden County at Bertieconf
Camden County27–20
67%
Parkwood at Forest Hillsconf
Forest Hills27–20
68%
Athens Drive at Corinth Holdersconf
Corinth Holders27–20
69%
South Johnston at Lee Countyconf
South Johnston27–20
69%
Covenant Day at SouthLake Christian Academyconf
SouthLake Christian Academy27–20
70%
North Duplin Jr Sr at West Columbusconf
North Duplin Jr Sr27–20
70%
Cummings at Personconf
Person27–20
70%
West Cabarrus at Olympicconf
Olympic27–20
70%
Rocky Mount Academy at Wake Christian Academyconf
Wake Christian Academy28–19
73%
Erwin at Enkaconf
Enka28–19
73%
East Chapel Hill at Chapel Hillconf
Chapel Hill28–19
73%
Mount Pleasant at Ansonconf
Mount Pleasant29–19
74%
North Lincoln at Bandysconf
Bandys29–19
74%
Hoke County at Pine Forestconf
Hoke County29–19
75%
Charlotte Christian at Christ School
Christ School29–19
75%
North Davidson at Glennconf
North Davidson29–19
75%
Bessemer City at Highland Techconf
Bessemer City29–19
76%
Manteo at Perquimans Countyconf
Manteo29–19
76%
Butler at North Mecklenburgconf
Butler29–19
77%
Cleveland at Garnerconf
Cleveland30–19
77%
Madison at Polk Countyconf
Polk County30–19
78%
Asheville Christian Academy at Tri-Cities Christian (TN)
Tri-Cities Christian (TN)30–19
78%
Lumberton at Gray's Creekconf
Gray's Creek30–19
78%
Lincolnton at Shelbyconf
Shelby30–19
78%
Panther Creek at Green Hopeconf
Green Hope30–19
78%
Northern Guilford at Northeast Guilfordconf
Northeast Guilford30–19
79%
Ashbrook at Kings Mountainconf
Kings Mountain31–19
80%
East Wilkes at Alleghanyconf
East Wilkes31–18
81%
Concord at Carsonconf
Carson31–18
81%
West Stokes at Mount Airyconf
Mount Airy31–18
81%
Apex at Willow Springconf
Apex31–18
81%
Hobgood Charter at Columbiaconf
Hobgood Charter31–18
81%
Metrolina Christian Academy at Charlotte Country Day School
Charlotte Country Day School31–18
82%
Southwest at Penderconf
Pender32–18
82%
Sanderson at Caryconf
Sanderson32–18
82%
Saint Stephens at Freedomconf
Freedom32–18
82%
Hertford County at Currituck Countyconf
Hertford County32–18
83%
Bradford Preparatory at Pine Lake Preparatoryconf
Pine Lake Preparatory32–18
84%
Hickory Grove Christian at Mount Zion Christian Academy
Hickory Grove Christian33–18
84%
East Burke at R-S Centralconf
R-S Central33–18
84%
Lejeune at East Carteretconf
East Carteret33–18
85%
Smoky Mountain at West Hendersonconf
Smoky Mountain33–18
85%
Lake Norman Charter at Christ the Kingconf
Christ the King33–18
85%
Whiteville at South Brunswickconf
Whiteville33–18
85%
Heritage at Franklintonconf
Franklinton33–18
86%
Watauga at South Caldwellconf
Watauga33–17
86%
West Iredell at Hickoryconf
Hickory34–17
86%
Seventy-First at Saint Paulsconf
Seventy-First34–17
87%
Thomasville at West Davidsonconf
Thomasville34–17
87%
Lakewood at Unionconf
Lakewood34–17
87%
Andrews at Rosmanconf
Rosman34–17
87%
Union Academy at Albemarleconf
Union Academy34–17
87%
Leesville Road at Enloeconf
Leesville Road34–17
87%
Harnett Central at West Johnstonconf
Harnett Central34–17
87%
McMichael at Carverconf
Carver35–17
88%
Davie County at Statesvilleconf
Davie County35–17
89%
Richmond at Jack Brittconf
Richmond35–17
89%
Eastern Randolph at Southwestern Randolphconf
Eastern Randolph35–17
89%
Bear Grass Charter at Mattamuskeetconf
Bear Grass Charter35–17
89%
College Prep and Leadership Academy at Chatham Centralconf
Chatham Central36–16
90%
Trinity Christian at Ravenscroftconf
Trinity Christian36–16
90%
Reynolds at Ashevilleconf
Asheville36–16
90%
Eastern Alamance at Western Alamanceconf
Eastern Alamance36–16
90%
Tuscola at Pisgahconf
Tuscola36–16
91%
Hunt at Southern Nashconf
Hunt37–16
91%
Washington at North Lenoirconf
Washington37–16
91%
Weldon STEM at KIPP Prideconf
KIPP Pride38–16
93%
Pinecrest at Overhillsconf
Pinecrest38–15
93%
North Pitt at SouthWest Edgecombeconf
SouthWest Edgecombe39–15
93%
Pasquotank County at Martin Countyconf
Martin County39–15
94%
Myers Park at Hopewellconf
Myers Park39–15
94%
Wayne Preparatory Academy at Wake Christian Academy
Wake Christian Academy39–15
94%
Purnell Swett at Cape Fearconf
Cape Fear39–15
94%
West Wilkes at Starmountconf
Starmount39–15
94%
T Wingate Andrews at Lexingtonconf
T Wingate Andrews40–15
94%
Northwood at Jordan-Matthewsconf
Northwood40–15
95%
Southeast Guilford at Asheboroconf
Asheboro41–14
95%
Hillside at Riversideconf
Hillside41–14
95%
Surry Central at Forbushconf
Forbush41–14
95%
Gates County at Holmesconf
Holmes41–14
95%
Charles B Aycock at Rocky Mountconf
Rocky Mount41–14
96%
Clayton at South Garnerconf
Clayton42–14
96%
Hayesville at Swain Countyconf
Swain County42–14
96%
North Stokes at Bishop McGuinnessconf
Bishop McGuinness42–14
96%
Marvin Ridge at Porter Ridgeconf
Marvin Ridge42–14
96%
Louisburg Magnet at American Leadership Academy - Johnstonconf
Louisburg Magnet42–14
96%
Havelock at Dixonconf
Havelock42–14
96%
Triton at Western Harnettconf
Triton42–14
96%
Salisbury at Northwest Cabarrusconf
Northwest Cabarrus42–14
96%
East Columbus Junior-Senior at East Bladenconf
East Bladen43–14
97%
Tarboro at Farmville Centralconf
Tarboro43–14
97%
Avery County at Mountain Heritageconf
Mountain Heritage43–13
97%
Central Cabarrus at A L Brownconf
A L Brown44–13
97%
Cardinal Gibbons at Holly Springsconf
Cardinal Gibbons44–13
97%
R J Reynolds at Reaganconf
Reagan48–12
97%
Huss at Crestconf
Crest45–13
97%
Douglas Byrd at Westoverconf
Westover50–11
97%
Middle Creek at Felton Groveconf
Middle Creek46–13
97%
Southern Wayne at Northern Nashconf
Northern Nash50–11
97%
Oak Grove at Atkinsconf
Oak Grove55–9
97%
Cedar Ridge at Seaforthconf
Seaforth54–9
97%
Pamlico County at Northsideconf
Northside49–11
97%
Independence at Chambersconf
Chambers45–13
97%
Palisades at Ballantyne Ridgeconf
Palisades44–13
97%
Wakefield at Rolesvilleconf
Rolesville46–12
97%
Southwest Guilford at Pageconf
Page49–11
97%
Apex Friendship at Green Levelconf
Apex Friendship45–13
97%
West Stanly at Monroeconf
Monroe46–12
97%
East Wake at Wake Forestconf
Wake Forest46–12
97%
South Granville at Carrboroconf
South Granville48–12
97%
Ardrey Kell at Rocky Riverconf
Ardrey Kell49–11
97%
East Rowan at West Rowanconf
West Rowan46–12
97%
Northeast Academy at Lawrence Academy
Lawrence Academy54–9
97%
Garinger at Houghconf
Hough62–6
97%
Southern Alamance at Grahamconf
Southern Alamance56–8
97%
Corvian Community at Langtree Charter Academyconf
Corvian Community48–12
97%
West Craven at North Johnstonconf
West Craven48–12
97%
Western Guilford at Dudleyconf
Dudley46–12
97%
SMLCA (VA) at North Raleigh Christian Academy
North Raleigh Christian Academy47–12
97%
Grimsley at Ragsdaleconf
Grimsley48–12
97%
North Gaston at South Pointconf
South Point59–7
97%
Rockingham County at Bartlett Yanceyconf
Rockingham County47–12
97%
Mooresville at North Iredellconf
Mooresville55–9
97%
Broughton at Millbrookconf
Millbrook46–12
97%
North East Carolina Prep at Wilson Preparatory Academyconf
Wilson Preparatory Academy48–12
97%
Northern at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabiconf
Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi52–10
97%
Asheville Christian Academy at Harrells Christian Academy
Harrells Christian Academy51–11
97%
Ayden-Grifton at Beddingfieldconf
Ayden-Grifton46–12
97%
Providence Grove at Trinityconf
Providence Grove48–11
97%
Cox Mill at Hickory Ridgeconf
Hickory Ridge45–13
97%
Red Springs at South Columbusconf
South Columbus45–13
97%
South Iredell at Lake Normanconf
Lake Norman49–11
97%
Southern Lee at Union Pinesconf
Union Pines54–9
97%
Northwest Guilford at West Forsythconf
West Forsyth51–10
97%
Richlands at Croatanconf
Croatan45–13
97%
Goldsboro at James Kenanconf
James Kenan59–7
97%
Topsail at Hoggardconf
Hoggard47–12
97%
Roberson at North Buncombeconf
Roberson47–12
97%
Community School of Davidson at Lincoln Charterconf
Community School of Davidson47–12
97%
Smithfield-Selma at Southeast Raleighconf
Southeast Raleigh54–9
97%
Cuthbertson at Weddingtonconf
Weddington55–9
97%
Reidsville at Moreheadconf
Reidsville45–13
97%
East Forsyth at Parklandconf
East Forsyth48–12
97%
Northampton County at Warren County
Warren County51–10
97%
Clinton at South Lenoirconf
Clinton45–13
97%
Ambassador Christian School at Providence Day
Providence Day47–12
97%
East Duplin at Heide Traskconf
East Duplin48–12
97%
White Oak at New Bernconf
New Bern44–13
97%
West Carteret at Northsideconf
Northside50–11
97%
North Forsyth Magnet at Mount Taborconf
Mount Tabor49–11
97%
Jones at Southsideconf
Southside50–11
97%
Scotland at Terry Sanfordconf
Scotland44–13
97%
South Stanly at North Stanlyconf
North Stanly47–12
97%
Spring Creek at Princetonconf
Princeton55–9
97%
South Rowan at Jay M Robinsonconf
Jay M Robinson45–13
97%
Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy at Mountain Island Charterconf
Mountain Island Charter48–12
97%
Owen at Hendersonvilleconf
Hendersonville44–13
97%
Wilkes Central at Ashe Countyconf
Wilkes Central46–12
97%
North Henderson at Franklinconf
Franklin44–13
97%
Eastern Guilford at Southern Guilfordconf
Eastern Guilford48–12
97%
McDowell at Alexander Centralconf
Alexander Central45–13
97%
North Wilkes at Elkinconf
North Wilkes45–13
97%
Foard at East Lincolnconf
East Lincoln46–12
97%
West Lincoln at Stuart W Cramerconf
Stuart W Cramer44–13
97%
Draughn at Hibritenconf
Hibriten57–8
97%
Saturday, October 10 — 1 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technicconf
Scoring tables are as played. Adjusted tables account for the opponent, so ten points conceded to a strong offense outranks a shutout of a weak one — the two disagree on purpose.
The official NCHSAA RPI standings, as published by the association on October 6, 2026 (nchsaa.org, powered by MaxPreps): 0.4 win percentage, 0.4 opponents' win percentage, 0.2 opponents' opponents'. Records are NCHSAA's, which can differ from ours where the association has ruled on a forfeit.
Projected champions: 8A Hough · 7A Weddington · 6A Junius H Rose · 5A Hickory · 4A Hibriten · 3A Shelby · 2A Tarboro · 1A Wilson Preparatory Academy
The RPI bubble: the teams whose chance of making the playoffs is between 15% and 85%, with the last teams safely in and the first teams out on either edge, listed by that chance. In is 85% or better, Out below 15%.
8A bubble — 24 of 32 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
20
Broughton
3-3-0
99%
In
0.48341
20
0.5288
21
South Mecklenburg
3-4-0
98%
In
0.45526
23
0.4736
22
Providence
3-4-0
94%
In
0.47210
22
0.4908
On the bubble
23
Wakefield
3-3-0
79%
Bubble
0.48037
21
0.4727
24
Apex
2-5-0
62%
Bubble
0.41243
27
0.4440
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Athens Drive
2-4-0
26%
Bubble
0.43280
25
0.4116
26
Willow Spring
2-4-0
16%
Bubble
0.41918
26
0.4124
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
27
Corinth Holders
1-5-0
13%
Out
0.40008
28
0.4027
28
East Mecklenburg
3-4-0
8%
Out
0.40000
29
0.4106
29
Enloe
3-3-0
4%
Out
0.43836
24
0.3839
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
7A bubble — 48 of 60 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43
Independence
1-5-0
94%
In
0.44865
43
0.4331
44
Sanderson
3-3-0
91%
In
0.42000
46
0.4477
45
East Wake
2-4-0
86%
In
0.39169
47
0.4264
On the bubble
46
Purnell Swett
3-3-0
81%
Bubble
0.42519
44
0.4299
47
South Iredell
1-5-0
75%
Bubble
0.38339
48
0.4140
48
North Mecklenburg
2-4-0
54%
Bubble
0.36146
51
0.4057
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Riverside
1-5-0
35%
Bubble
0.33373
54
0.3819
50
Lumberton
1-5-0
30%
Bubble
0.37537
49
0.3879
51
Cox Mill
2-4-0
26%
Bubble
0.33463
53
0.3864
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52
Chapel Hill
1-5-0
12%
Out
0.31119
57
0.3617
53
McDowell
1-5-0
11%
Out
0.42164
45
0.3650
54
Cary
2-4-0
10%
Out
0.33167
55
0.3638
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
6A bubble — 48 of 58 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
40
Northern
3-3-0
93%
In
0.44854
37
0.4434
41
Watauga
1-5-0
92%
In
0.39185
46
0.4521
42
Lee County
1-5-0
88%
In
0.43156
38
0.4229
On the bubble
43
Western Guilford
3-4-0
81%
Bubble
0.42491
42
0.4064
44
Terry Sanford
2-4-0
80%
Bubble
0.40111
45
0.4306
45
Central Cabarrus
1-5-0
71%
Bubble
0.37222
50
0.4175
46
West Brunswick
1-6-0
68%
Bubble
0.42881
41
0.4139
47
Saint Stephens
1-5-0
68%
Bubble
0.37796
49
0.4113
48
Harding University
2-4-0
68%
Bubble
0.42019
43
0.4074
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
E E Smith
1-5-0
49%
Bubble
0.35380
53
0.3890
50
South View
1-5-0
42%
Bubble
0.33000
54
0.3895
51
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
2-4-0
37%
Bubble
0.39048
47
0.3823
52
Western Harnett
3-3-0
35%
Bubble
0.37981
48
0.3895
53
Southeast Guilford
1-5-0
19%
Bubble
0.36321
52
0.3808
54
Vance County
0-6-0
17%
Bubble
0.37093
51
0.3635
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55
East Chapel Hill
1-4-0
2%
Out
0.31260
55
0.3240
56
Ben L. Smith
1-6-0
0%
Out
0.28830
58
0.3288
57
North Iredell
0-6-0
0%
Out
0.31037
56
0.3109
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
5A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43
West Carteret
2-4-0
92%
In
0.44435
42
0.4476
44
Huss
3-4-0
92%
In
0.41374
45
0.4135
45
Forestview
1-6-0
88%
In
0.40522
48
0.4076
On the bubble
46
Person
1-5-0
83%
Bubble
0.38366
49
0.4221
47
Concord
1-5-0
71%
Bubble
0.43566
43
0.4225
48
North Lincoln
1-6-0
62%
Bubble
0.40771
47
0.4105
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
East Rowan
2-4-0
56%
Bubble
0.42228
44
0.4083
50
Richlands
1-5-0
39%
Bubble
0.36885
51
0.3947
51
Dixon
2-4-0
27%
Bubble
0.33984
53
0.3834
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52
North Forsyth Magnet
1-5-0
2%
Out
0.35519
52
0.3518
53
Atkins
1-5-0
1%
Out
0.37394
50
0.3472
54
North Gaston
0-7-0
0%
Out
0.26961
54
0.3018
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
4A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43
Cummings
1-5-0
99%
In
0.44114
40
0.4240
44
Nash Central
0-6-0
98%
In
0.36796
47
0.4280
45
Southwest
1-5-0
93%
In
0.34224
49
0.4059
On the bubble
46
Lincoln Charter
1-5-0
70%
Bubble
0.39259
45
0.3817
47
East Henderson
1-6-0
70%
Bubble
0.37460
46
0.3767
48
Central Davidson
2-5-0
68%
Bubble
0.35168
48
0.3767
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Carver
1-5-0
31%
Bubble
0.28561
55
0.3374
50
North Johnston
1-6-0
28%
Bubble
0.29561
54
0.3395
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51
Graham
0-1-0
14%
Out
0.46667
35
0.3429
52
Red Springs
1-5-0
12%
Out
0.29926
52
0.3453
53
Ashe County
1-5-0
9%
Out
0.31144
50
0.3472
48 of 57 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
3A bubble — 48 of 56 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
42
North Moore
0-7-0
100%
In
0.37141
40
0.3644
43
Heide Trask
2-4-0
100%
In
0.35168
43
0.3515
44
Polk County
1-6-0
92%
In
0.32308
46
0.3657
On the bubble
45
Bartlett Yancey
1-5-0
84%
Bubble
0.31725
47
0.3424
46
Patton
1-6-0
75%
Bubble
0.31338
49
0.3285
47
McMichael
1-5-0
46%
Bubble
0.34193
44
0.3315
48
Bessemer City
0-7-0
46%
Bubble
0.28433
51
0.3126
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Trinity
1-5-0
42%
Bubble
0.31638
48
0.3226
50
Madison
1-6-0
36%
Bubble
0.32385
45
0.3237
51
Draughn
0-7-0
35%
Bubble
0.29183
50
0.3206
52
Goldsboro
0-6-0
33%
Bubble
0.26619
52
0.3053
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53
Spring Creek
11%
Out
—
—
0.2757
54
Beddingfield
0-6-0
0%
Out
0.23333
53
0.2720
55
West Bladen
0-5-0
0%
Out
0.21224
55
0.2662
48 of 56 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
2A bubble — 48 of 46 make the field
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
1A bubble — 48 of 25 make the field
All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Winningest Coaches
North Carolina head-coaching records: every game in our archive for the seasons a coach is credited with, from HSFHA, the NCHSAA, NCHSFootball and MaxPreps, with a published stint filling a season no source names. Records outside North Carolina are HSFHA's. Still being completed: for 1980-1999 many seasons have no coach on record anywhere yet.
All-time, by NC wins
Coach
Schools
NC record
Pct
Seasons
State titles
Other states
Career
1
Jack Holley
Tabor City 1964-69, 1972-81; Hallsboro 1970-71; Wallace-Rose Hill 1982-92, 1997-2008; South Columbus 1993-96; Harrells Christian Academy 2009-10
418-126-8
.764
47
418-126-8
2
David Gentry
Edneyville 1974-83; Murphy 1984-2020
406-174-2
.699
47
9
406-174-2
3
Burton Cates
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
390-132
.747
42
1
390-132
2
Jeff Craddock
Tarboro 2004-26
260-49
.841
23
8
260-49
3
Steve Davis
Dudley 2004-26
250-60
.806
23
5
250-60
4
Richard Bailey
Jack Britt 2000-02, 2004, 2006-10; Scotland 2012-26
241-76
.760
24
241-76
5
Antonio Moore
Northeastern 2005-26
235-58
.802
22
235-58
6
Donnie Kiefer
Saint Pauls 1986-87; Southwest Guilford 1988-90; Gates County 1991-93; Andrews 1994-95; Hibriten 1996-98; Roanoke 1999-2003; East Carteret 2004-06; Tuscola 2007-11; Central Cabarrus 2012-16, 2022, 2025-26
120 simulated seasons. Results through week 7 are taken as they stand; every week after that is played out in full, with ratings refit after each one. Outcomes are sampled rather than awarded to the favorite, so upsets happen at the rate the model believes they happen. The mean rating comes back close to where the season has already put each team — a simulation learns nothing new about games nobody has played — so the 10th–90th band, not the mean, is the forecast, and it widens the further out the projection runs.