2026 NCHSAA Football Playoff Projections

Week 8. The bracket is the most likely path: the field is the teams most likely to make it, the same teams above the line in each RPI bubble, seeded on their projected final RPI, and every game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts. The title odds beside it come from playing the rest of the season and the playoffs 120 times, upsets included — a 60% favorite wins this bracket every time and the title 60% of the time. Field sizes and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 48 teams in 1A-7A and 24 in 8A, split east and west by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final and the final at a neutral site.

8A

Projected champion: Hough · wins the title in 52% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
20	Broughton	3-3-0	99%	In	0.48341	20	0.5288
21	South Mecklenburg	3-4-0	98%	In	0.45526	23	0.4736
22	Providence	3-4-0	94%	In	0.47210	22	0.4908
On the bubble
23	Wakefield	3-3-0	79%	Bubble	0.48037	21	0.4727
24	Apex	2-5-0	62%	Bubble	0.41243	27	0.4440
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25	Athens Drive	2-4-0	26%	Bubble	0.43280	25	0.4116
26	Willow Spring	2-4-0	16%	Bubble	0.41918	26	0.4124
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
27	Corinth Holders	1-5-0	13%	Out	0.40008	28	0.4027
28	East Mecklenburg	3-4-0	8%	Out	0.40000	29	0.4106
29	Enloe	3-3-0	4%	Out	0.43836	24	0.3839

24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Laney269Broughton20Laney 65% · at Laney

5Rolesville4512Apex13Rolesville 98% · at Rolesville

7Leesville Road3410Panther Creek17Leesville Road 87% · at Leesville Road

6Jordan3411Wakefield17Jordan 86% · at Jordan

Second Round

1Millbrook458Laney13Millbrook 97% · at Millbrook

4Green Hope165Rolesville38Rolesville 93% · at Green Hope

2Apex Friendship247Leesville Road21Apex Friendship 58% · at Apex Friendship

3Hoggard396Jordan15Hoggard 94% · at Hoggard

Third Round

1Millbrook295Rolesville19Millbrook 76% · at Millbrook

2Apex Friendship183Hoggard33Hoggard 85% · at Apex Friendship

Regional Final

1Millbrook293Hoggard19Millbrook 76% · at Millbrook

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8West Charlotte269Ardrey Kell20West Charlotte 65% · at West Charlotte

5Palisades4312South Mecklenburg14Palisades 97% · at Palisades

7Pinecrest3510Hoke County17Pinecrest 89% · at Pinecrest

6Myers Park3411Providence17Myers Park 87% · at Myers Park

Second Round

1Hough468West Charlotte12Hough 98% · at Hough

4Mallard Creek295Palisades19Mallard Creek 74% · at Mallard Creek

2Chambers377Pinecrest16Chambers 91% · at Chambers

3West Forsyth336Myers Park18West Forsyth 85% · at West Forsyth

Third Round

1Hough404Mallard Creek15Hough 94% · at Hough

2Chambers243West Forsyth21Chambers 57% · at Chambers

Regional Final

1Hough362Chambers17Hough 90% · at Hough

State Championship

Hough32Millbrook18Hough 82% · neutral site

Every 8A team's projection — 32 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Hough	10.0-0.0	100%	1.0	51.7%
Chambers	9.7-0.3	100%	2.0	6.7%
Millbrook	9.0-0.0	100%	1.1	31.7%
West Forsyth	8.4-1.6	100%	3.5	1.7%
Apex Friendship	9.8-0.2	100%	2.5	0.0%
Hoggard	8.8-1.2	100%	2.8	3.3%
Mallard Creek	7.1-2.9	100%	4.4	0.8%
Palisades	8.8-1.2	100%	4.5	0.8%
Green Hope	8.8-1.2	100%	4.2	0.0%
Rolesville	7.5-2.5	100%	4.5	3.3%
Myers Park	6.8-3.2	100%	6.0	0.0%
Pinecrest	6.2-3.8	100%	7.3	0.0%
West Charlotte	5.2-4.8	100%	8.2	0.0%
Jordan	6.6-3.4	100%	7.2	0.0%
Ardrey Kell	6.5-3.5	100%	8.7	0.0%
Laney	4.7-5.3	100%	8.3	0.0%
Panther Creek	5.2-4.8	100%	8.8	0.0%
Hoke County	4.5-5.5	100%	10.1	0.0%
Leesville Road	5.7-4.3	99%	7.7	0.0%
Broughton	5.7-4.3	99%	8.7	0.0%
South Mecklenburg	4.0-6.0	98%	11.5	0.0%
Providence	4.3-5.7	94%	10.7	0.0%
Wakefield	4.0-6.0	79%	10.6	0.0%
Apex	4.1-5.9	62%	11.2	0.0%
Athens Drive	3.1-6.9	26%	11.3	0.0%
Willow Spring	2.4-7.6	16%	11.6	0.0%
Corinth Holders	2.1-7.9	13%	11.5	0.0%
East Mecklenburg	4.1-5.9	8%	12.0	0.0%
Enloe	2.7-7.3	4%	11.6	0.0%
Northwest Guilford	0.8-9.2	0%	—	0.0%
Garinger	2.2-7.8	0%	—	0.0%
Green Level	1.2-8.8	0%	—	0.0%

7A

Projected champion: Weddington · wins the title in 37% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43	Independence	1-5-0	94%	In	0.44865	43	0.4331
44	Sanderson	3-3-0	91%	In	0.42000	46	0.4477
45	East Wake	2-4-0	86%	In	0.39169	47	0.4264
On the bubble
46	Purnell Swett	3-3-0	81%	Bubble	0.42519	44	0.4299
47	South Iredell	1-5-0	75%	Bubble	0.38339	48	0.4140
48	North Mecklenburg	2-4-0	54%	Bubble	0.36146	51	0.4057
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Riverside	1-5-0	35%	Bubble	0.33373	54	0.3819
50	Lumberton	1-5-0	30%	Bubble	0.37537	49	0.3879
51	Cox Mill	2-4-0	26%	Bubble	0.33463	53	0.3864
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52	Chapel Hill	1-5-0	12%	Out	0.31119	57	0.3617
53	McDowell	1-5-0	11%	Out	0.42164	45	0.3650
54	Cary	2-4-0	10%	Out	0.33167	55	0.3638

48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16New Hanover2217Heritage23Heritage 52% · at New Hanover

9Cape Fear4024East Wake15Cape Fear 95% · at Cape Fear

13North Brunswick2720Pine Forest20North Brunswick 69% · at North Brunswick

12South Central2121South Garner23South Garner 56% · at South Central

15Holly Springs2118Fuquay-Varina24Fuquay-Varina 57% · at Holly Springs

10D H Conley3223Overhills18D H Conley 83% · at D H Conley

14Ashley2419Topsail21Ashley 58% · at Ashley

11Hillside2322Sanderson22Hillside 55% · at Hillside

Second Round

1Cleveland4917Heritage11Cleveland 99% · at Cleveland

8Southeast Raleigh399Cape Fear15Southeast Raleigh 94% · at Southeast Raleigh

4New Bern3713North Brunswick16New Bern 92% · at New Bern

5Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi3221South Garner18Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi 82% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi

2Clayton4418Fuquay-Varina13Clayton 97% · at Clayton

7Garner3910D H Conley15Garner 94% · at Garner

3Cardinal Gibbons4714Ashley12Cardinal Gibbons 98% · at Cardinal Gibbons

6Wake Forest4311Hillside14Wake Forest 97% · at Wake Forest

Third Round

1Cleveland308Southeast Raleigh19Cleveland 78% · at Cleveland

4New Bern225Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi22Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi 51% · at New Bern

2Clayton277Garner20Clayton 69% · at Clayton

3Cardinal Gibbons306Wake Forest19Cardinal Gibbons 77% · at Cardinal Gibbons

Fourth Round

1Cleveland395Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi15Cleveland 94% · at Cleveland

2Clayton243Cardinal Gibbons21Clayton 58% · at Clayton

Regional Final

1Cleveland272Clayton20Cleveland 68% · at Cleveland

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16West Cabarrus2017Porter Ridge26Porter Ridge 65% · at West Cabarrus

9Hickory Ridge3924North Mecklenburg15Hickory Ridge 94% · at Hickory Ridge

13Mooresville3420Independence17Mooresville 88% · at Mooresville

12Richmond4721Parkland12Richmond 98% · at Richmond

15Jack Britt2718R J Reynolds20Jack Britt 70% · at Jack Britt

10East Forsyth4523South Iredell13East Forsyth 97% · at East Forsyth

14Hopewell2919Ballantyne Ridge19Hopewell 74% · at Hopewell

11Butler4122Purnell Swett14Butler 95% · at Butler

Second Round

1Weddington5017Porter Ridge11Weddington 99% · at Weddington

8Davie County219Hickory Ridge25Hickory Ridge 61% · at Davie County

4Lake Norman3913Mooresville15Lake Norman 93% · at Lake Norman

5Marvin Ridge2712Richmond20Marvin Ridge 70% · at Marvin Ridge

2Grimsley4715Jack Britt12Grimsley 98% · at Grimsley

7Page2210East Forsyth22East Forsyth 51% · at Page

3Reagan4714Hopewell12Reagan 98% · at Reagan

6A L Brown3011Butler19A L Brown 78% · at A L Brown

Third Round

1Weddington429Hickory Ridge14Weddington 96% · at Weddington

4Lake Norman325Marvin Ridge18Lake Norman 83% · at Lake Norman

2Grimsley3410East Forsyth17Grimsley 88% · at Grimsley

3Reagan356A L Brown17Reagan 89% · at Reagan

Fourth Round

1Weddington294Lake Norman19Weddington 76% · at Weddington

2Grimsley253Reagan21Grimsley 64% · at Grimsley

Regional Final

1Weddington282Grimsley20Weddington 71% · at Weddington

State Championship

Weddington27Cleveland20Weddington 70% · neutral site

Every 7A team's projection — 60 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Weddington	10.0-0.0	100%	1.1	36.7%
Grimsley	9.8-0.2	100%	2.2	13.3%
Cleveland	9.0-1.0	100%	2.2	19.2%
Clayton	8.9-1.1	100%	2.1	5.0%
Reagan	8.3-1.7	100%	3.8	8.3%
Lake Norman	9.7-0.3	100%	4.0	5.0%
Cardinal Gibbons	7.7-2.3	100%	3.0	8.3%
Marvin Ridge	8.7-1.3	100%	5.6	0.0%
A L Brown	9.4-0.6	100%	6.2	0.0%
New Bern	6.5-3.5	100%	5.7	0.0%
Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi	6.9-2.1	100%	6.0	0.0%
Wake Forest	7.8-2.2	100%	6.1	0.8%
Page	9.2-0.8	100%	7.8	0.0%
Garner	6.5-3.5	100%	6.8	1.7%
Davie County	6.7-3.3	100%	7.7	0.0%
Hickory Ridge	8.4-1.6	100%	7.8	0.0%
Southeast Raleigh	7.2-2.8	100%	7.1	1.7%
Cape Fear	8.5-2.5	100%	8.7	0.0%
D H Conley	6.1-3.9	100%	9.0	0.0%
East Forsyth	6.2-3.8	100%	10.0	0.0%
Hillside	7.0-3.0	100%	10.6	0.0%
Butler	5.1-4.9	100%	11.7	0.0%
Richmond	5.5-5.5	100%	12.2	0.0%
Mooresville	4.4-5.6	100%	12.4	0.0%
South Central	4.7-5.3	100%	12.7	0.0%
Hopewell	5.9-4.1	100%	14.0	0.0%
North Brunswick	5.7-4.3	100%	14.5	0.0%
Ashley	4.8-5.2	100%	15.3	0.0%
Holly Springs	4.5-5.5	100%	15.9	0.0%
New Hanover	3.7-6.3	100%	17.4	0.0%
West Cabarrus	3.6-6.4	100%	16.7	0.0%
Heritage	4.0-6.0	100%	17.7	0.0%
Fuquay-Varina	3.6-6.4	100%	18.0	0.0%
Porter Ridge	3.2-6.8	100%	17.4	0.0%
Topsail	3.2-6.8	100%	18.6	0.0%
R J Reynolds	4.8-5.2	100%	17.8	0.0%
South Garner	3.7-6.3	100%	20.3	0.0%
Parkland	3.6-6.4	100%	20.9	0.0%
Pine Forest	4.2-6.8	99%	19.0	0.0%
Ballantyne Ridge	4.3-5.7	98%	19.0	0.0%
Jack Britt	4.1-5.9	96%	16.4	0.0%
Overhills	4.0-6.0	94%	20.6	0.0%
Independence	1.6-8.4	94%	20.7	0.0%
Sanderson	4.1-4.9	91%	20.2	0.0%
East Wake	3.7-6.3	86%	21.9	0.0%
Purnell Swett	4.0-6.0	81%	20.4	0.0%
South Iredell	2.4-7.6	75%	22.1	0.0%
North Mecklenburg	3.3-6.7	54%	21.2	0.0%
Riverside	2.5-7.5	35%	23.6	0.0%
Lumberton	2.0-8.0	30%	21.9	0.0%
Cox Mill	2.9-7.1	26%	21.7	0.0%
Chapel Hill	2.4-7.6	12%	22.1	0.0%
McDowell	1.3-8.7	11%	23.5	0.0%
Cary	2.5-7.5	10%	22.4	0.0%
Southwest Guilford	1.6-8.4	7%	21.9	0.0%
Cuthbertson	1.0-9.0	1%	23.0	0.0%
West Mecklenburg	1.1-8.9	1%	23.0	0.0%
Smithfield-Selma	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Knightdale	0.8-9.2	0%	—	0.0%
Rocky River	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%

6A

Projected champion: Junius H Rose · wins the title in 22% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
40	Northern	3-3-0	93%	In	0.44854	37	0.4434
41	Watauga	1-5-0	92%	In	0.39185	46	0.4521
42	Lee County	1-5-0	88%	In	0.43156	38	0.4229
On the bubble
43	Western Guilford	3-4-0	81%	Bubble	0.42491	42	0.4064
44	Terry Sanford	2-4-0	80%	Bubble	0.40111	45	0.4306
45	Central Cabarrus	1-5-0	71%	Bubble	0.37222	50	0.4175
46	West Brunswick	1-6-0	68%	Bubble	0.42881	41	0.4139
47	Saint Stephens	1-5-0	68%	Bubble	0.37796	49	0.4113
48	Harding University	2-4-0	68%	Bubble	0.42019	43	0.4074
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	E E Smith	1-5-0	49%	Bubble	0.35380	53	0.3890
50	South View	1-5-0	42%	Bubble	0.33000	54	0.3895
51	Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	2-4-0	37%	Bubble	0.39048	47	0.3823
52	Western Harnett	3-3-0	35%	Bubble	0.37981	48	0.3895
53	Southeast Guilford	1-5-0	19%	Bubble	0.36321	52	0.3808
54	Vance County	0-6-0	17%	Bubble	0.37093	51	0.3635
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55	East Chapel Hill	1-4-0	2%	Out	0.31260	55	0.3240
56	Ben L. Smith	1-6-0	0%	Out	0.28830	58	0.3288
57	North Iredell	0-6-0	0%	Out	0.31037	56	0.3109

48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Westover3017Eastern Guilford19Westover 79% · at Westover

9Seventy-First4324West Brunswick13Seventy-First 97% · at Seventy-First

13Harnett Central4620Northern13Harnett Central 98% · at Harnett Central

12Swansboro3021White Oak19Swansboro 78% · at Swansboro

15South Johnston2518Gray's Creek21South Johnston 63% · at South Johnston

10Middle Creek4823Lee County12Middle Creek 98% · at Middle Creek

14Felton Grove2819West Johnston20Felton Grove 71% · at Felton Grove

11Triton2722Terry Sanford20Triton 70% · at Triton

Second Round

1Junius H Rose4316Westover13Junius H Rose 97% · at Junius H Rose

8Franklinton199Seventy-First29Seventy-First 75% · at Franklinton

4Scotland4213Harnett Central14Scotland 96% · at Scotland

5Union Pines3912Swansboro15Union Pines 94% · at Union Pines

2Jacksonville4615South Johnston12Jacksonville 98% · at Jacksonville

7Southern Alamance1910Middle Creek30Middle Creek 79% · at Southern Alamance

3Williams4014Felton Grove15Williams 94% · at Williams

6Northern Nash4211Triton14Northern Nash 96% · at Northern Nash

Third Round

1Junius H Rose309Seventy-First19Junius H Rose 77% · at Junius H Rose

4Scotland295Union Pines19Scotland 75% · at Scotland

2Jacksonville2510Middle Creek21Jacksonville 61% · at Jacksonville

3Williams196Northern Nash31Northern Nash 80% · at Williams

Fourth Round

1Junius H Rose264Scotland20Junius H Rose 65% · at Junius H Rose

2Jacksonville266Northern Nash20Jacksonville 67% · at Jacksonville

Regional Final

1Junius H Rose232Jacksonville21Junius H Rose 55% · at Junius H Rose

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Reynolds2117Statesville25Statesville 63% · at Reynolds

9Ashbrook4824Western Guilford12Ashbrook 98% · at Ashbrook

13Northern Guilford3120Piedmont18Northern Guilford 81% · at Northern Guilford

12Glenn2821Central Cabarrus20Glenn 73% · at Glenn

15Ragsdale3518South Caldwell17Ragsdale 89% · at Ragsdale

10Mount Tabor4223Harding University14Mount Tabor 96% · at Mount Tabor

14Olympic2419Watauga21Olympic 59% · at Olympic

11Charlotte Catholic4122Saint Stephens14Charlotte Catholic 95% · at Charlotte Catholic

Second Round

1Asheville3217Statesville18Asheville 83% · at Asheville

8Sun Valley219Ashbrook24Ashbrook 59% · at Sun Valley

4Asheboro2613Northern Guilford20Asheboro 66% · at Asheboro

5Alexander Central2712Glenn20Alexander Central 69% · at Alexander Central

2Roberson4315Ragsdale14Roberson 96% · at Roberson

7Freedom1910Mount Tabor31Mount Tabor 80% · at Freedom

3Kings Mountain4214Olympic14Kings Mountain 96% · at Kings Mountain

6Dudley2411Charlotte Catholic21Dudley 57% · at Dudley

Third Round

1Asheville219Ashbrook25Ashbrook 61% · at Asheville

4Asheboro255Alexander Central21Asheboro 61% · at Asheboro

2Roberson3310Mount Tabor17Roberson 86% · at Roberson

3Kings Mountain336Dudley17Kings Mountain 86% · at Kings Mountain

Fourth Round

4Asheboro199Ashbrook28Ashbrook 73% · at Asheboro

2Roberson223Kings Mountain23Kings Mountain 53% · at Roberson

Regional Final

3Kings Mountain319Ashbrook19Kings Mountain 80% · at Kings Mountain

State Championship

Junius H Rose24Kings Mountain21Junius H Rose 59% · neutral site

Every 6A team's projection — 58 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Junius H Rose	9.3-0.7	100%	1.7	21.7%
Jacksonville	7.3-1.7	100%	2.9	20.8%
Asheville	8.5-1.5	100%	1.5	1.7%
Williams	6.6-1.4	100%	3.7	1.7%
Scotland	8.8-1.1	100%	4.2	8.3%
Union Pines	8.8-1.2	100%	5.1	1.7%
Northern Nash	7.6-2.4	100%	5.1	7.5%
Roberson	7.8-2.2	100%	3.0	14.2%
Kings Mountain	7.8-2.2	100%	3.5	13.3%
Southern Alamance	7.8-2.1	100%	6.9	2.5%
Asheboro	8.1-1.9	100%	3.7	0.0%
Franklinton	8.9-1.1	100%	7.9	0.8%
Seventy-First	8.7-1.3	100%	9.2	0.0%
Middle Creek	7.3-2.7	100%	9.4	4.2%
Triton	8.2-1.8	100%	10.3	0.0%
Alexander Central	8.4-1.6	100%	5.8	0.0%
Dudley	6.1-3.9	100%	6.5	0.0%
Swansboro	7.1-2.9	100%	11.7	0.0%
Freedom	7.9-2.1	100%	7.8	0.0%
Harnett Central	8.3-2.7	100%	12.0	0.0%
Sun Valley	5.3-4.7	100%	9.0	0.0%
Ashbrook	5.3-4.7	100%	10.1	0.8%
Mount Tabor	5.0-5.0	100%	9.9	0.8%
Charlotte Catholic	5.5-4.5	100%	10.9	0.0%
Glenn	6.5-3.5	100%	11.9	0.0%
Felton Grove	4.9-4.1	100%	14.6	0.0%
South Johnston	5.6-5.4	100%	15.0	0.0%
Northern Guilford	4.8-5.2	100%	13.2	0.0%
Olympic	5.5-4.5	100%	13.7	0.0%
Westover	5.4-4.6	100%	16.0	0.0%
Eastern Guilford	3.7-5.3	100%	16.1	0.0%
Reynolds	2.9-7.1	100%	17.6	0.0%
Statesville	3.9-6.1	100%	17.6	0.0%
South Caldwell	3.9-6.1	100%	18.7	0.0%
White Oak	2.1-6.9	100%	20.8	0.0%
Ragsdale	4.7-5.3	99%	16.6	0.0%
West Johnston	4.2-5.8	98%	19.0	0.0%
Gray's Creek	5.2-4.8	98%	18.4	0.0%
Piedmont	3.3-6.7	96%	21.4	0.0%
Northern	4.4-5.6	93%	19.5	0.0%
Watauga	3.5-6.5	92%	18.2	0.0%
Lee County	2.5-7.5	88%	21.3	0.0%
Western Guilford	3.1-6.9	81%	23.0	0.0%
Terry Sanford	3.2-6.8	80%	20.0	0.0%
Central Cabarrus	2.9-7.1	71%	19.9	0.0%
West Brunswick	2.0-8.0	68%	21.0	0.0%
Saint Stephens	2.9-7.1	68%	20.3	0.0%
Harding University	3.1-6.9	68%	21.4	0.0%
E E Smith	2.8-7.2	49%	22.2	0.0%
South View	2.8-7.2	42%	22.1	0.0%
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	3.2-6.8	37%	21.6	0.0%
Western Harnett	3.4-6.6	35%	21.6	0.0%
Southeast Guilford	2.1-7.9	19%	22.1	0.0%
Vance County	0.7-9.3	17%	23.0	0.0%
East Chapel Hill	1.7-7.3	2%	22.7	0.0%
Ben L. Smith	1.1-8.9	0%	—	0.0%
North Iredell	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Southern Lee	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%

5A

Projected champion: Hickory · wins the title in 14% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43	West Carteret	2-4-0	92%	In	0.44435	42	0.4476
44	Huss	3-4-0	92%	In	0.41374	45	0.4135
45	Forestview	1-6-0	88%	In	0.40522	48	0.4076
On the bubble
46	Person	1-5-0	83%	Bubble	0.38366	49	0.4221
47	Concord	1-5-0	71%	Bubble	0.43566	43	0.4225
48	North Lincoln	1-6-0	62%	Bubble	0.40771	47	0.4105
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	East Rowan	2-4-0	56%	Bubble	0.42228	44	0.4083
50	Richlands	1-5-0	39%	Bubble	0.36885	51	0.3947
51	Dixon	2-4-0	27%	Bubble	0.33984	53	0.3834
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
52	North Forsyth Magnet	1-5-0	2%	Out	0.35519	52	0.3518
53	Atkins	1-5-0	1%	Out	0.37394	50	0.3472
54	North Gaston	0-7-0	0%	Out	0.26961	54	0.3018

48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Rockingham County3217J. F. Webb18Rockingham County 84% · at Rockingham County

9Rocky Mount4424Person13Rocky Mount 97% · at Rocky Mount

13Western Alamance3220South Brunswick18Western Alamance 82% · at Western Alamance

12South Granville2821West Carteret20South Granville 72% · at South Granville

15Currituck County2718Orange20Currituck County 67% · at Currituck County

10Havelock4523Southern Wayne13Havelock 97% · at Havelock

14Southern Nash2519Montgomery Central21Southern Nash 61% · at Southern Nash

11Saint Pauls3822Charles B Aycock15Saint Pauls 93% · at Saint Pauls

Second Round

1Northside4716Rockingham County12Northside 98% · at Northside

8Eastern Alamance269Rocky Mount21Eastern Alamance 64% · at Eastern Alamance

4Fike4213Western Alamance14Fike 96% · at Fike

5Hunt4212South Granville14Hunt 96% · at Hunt

2Southeast Alamance4415Currituck County13Southeast Alamance 97% · at Southeast Alamance

7Seaforth1910Havelock30Havelock 78% · at Seaforth

3Northeast Guilford3814Southern Nash16Northeast Guilford 93% · at Northeast Guilford

6Croatan2711Saint Pauls20Croatan 69% · at Croatan

Third Round

1Northside348Eastern Alamance17Northside 87% · at Northside

4Fike285Hunt20Fike 73% · at Fike

2Southeast Alamance2710Havelock20Southeast Alamance 69% · at Southeast Alamance

3Northeast Guilford256Croatan21Northeast Guilford 61% · at Northeast Guilford

Fourth Round

1Northside284Fike19Northside 74% · at Northside

2Southeast Alamance243Northeast Guilford21Southeast Alamance 59% · at Southeast Alamance

Regional Final

1Northside332Southeast Alamance18Northside 85% · at Northside

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16West Henderson2517Carson21West Henderson 63% · at West Henderson

9East Lincoln4724Forestview12East Lincoln 98% · at East Lincoln

13Northwest Cabarrus3420North Henderson17Northwest Cabarrus 86% · at Northwest Cabarrus

12Smoky Mountain4421Concord13Smoky Mountain 97% · at Smoky Mountain

15Parkwood2418Erwin21Parkwood 59% · at Parkwood

10Forest Hills3723North Lincoln16Forest Hills 92% · at Forest Hills

14North Davidson4119North Buncombe14North Davidson 95% · at North Davidson

11Enka3122Huss18Enka 81% · at Enka

Second Round

1Crest4516West Henderson13Crest 97% · at Crest

8Monroe239East Lincoln22Monroe 53% · at Monroe

4Jay M Robinson4213Northwest Cabarrus14Jay M Robinson 96% · at Jay M Robinson

5West Rowan2612Smoky Mountain20West Rowan 66% · at West Rowan

2Franklin3615Parkwood16Franklin 91% · at Franklin

7Oak Grove4110Forest Hills14Oak Grove 95% · at Oak Grove

3Hickory3814North Davidson16Hickory 93% · at Hickory

6South Point4011Enka15South Point 94% · at South Point

Third Round

1Crest288Monroe19Crest 73% · at Crest

4Jay M Robinson315West Rowan18Jay M Robinson 81% · at Jay M Robinson

2Franklin197Oak Grove30Oak Grove 78% · at Franklin

3Hickory256South Point21Hickory 62% · at Hickory

Fourth Round

1Crest254Jay M Robinson21Crest 60% · at Crest

3Hickory247Oak Grove21Hickory 56% · at Hickory

Regional Final

1Crest223Hickory23Hickory 53% · at Crest

State Championship

Northside21Hickory23Hickory 56% · neutral site

Every 5A team's projection — 57 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Northside	9.8-0.2	100%	1.4	33.3%
Crest	8.3-1.7	100%	3.0	9.2%
Franklin	9.6-0.4	100%	2.9	1.7%
Southeast Alamance	10.2-0.8	100%	2.4	2.5%
Hickory	8.5-1.5	100%	4.2	14.2%
Jay M Robinson	9.6-0.5	100%	4.3	5.0%
West Rowan	8.1-1.9	100%	4.7	0.0%
South Point	8.5-1.5	100%	5.4	9.2%
Northeast Guilford	8.3-1.7	100%	4.3	2.5%
Oak Grove	8.6-1.4	100%	6.9	10.0%
Fike	8.8-1.2	100%	4.4	8.3%
Hunt	7.7-2.3	100%	4.9	0.0%
Monroe	7.6-2.4	100%	7.5	0.8%
Croatan	8.9-1.1	100%	5.3	0.8%
East Lincoln	8.1-1.9	100%	9.4	0.8%
Forest Hills	8.3-1.6	100%	9.7	0.0%
Enka	8.0-2.0	100%	10.1	0.0%
Seaforth	8.7-1.4	100%	7.3	0.0%
Smoky Mountain	8.2-1.8	100%	11.6	0.0%
Eastern Alamance	6.9-3.1	100%	8.6	1.7%
Northwest Cabarrus	7.1-2.9	100%	12.2	0.0%
Rocky Mount	6.5-3.5	100%	9.7	0.0%
Havelock	4.9-5.1	100%	9.8	0.0%
North Davidson	6.9-3.1	100%	13.8	0.0%
Parkwood	5.5-4.5	100%	15.0	0.0%
Saint Pauls	7.3-2.7	100%	12.1	0.0%
South Granville	6.5-3.5	100%	12.3	0.0%
West Henderson	4.9-5.1	100%	16.2	0.0%
Western Alamance	6.2-4.8	100%	13.4	0.0%
Carson	5.1-4.9	100%	16.8	0.0%
Southern Nash	4.3-5.7	100%	14.7	0.0%
Currituck County	4.7-5.3	100%	15.8	0.0%
Rockingham County	4.8-5.2	100%	16.1	0.0%
Erwin	3.9-6.1	100%	18.3	0.0%
J. F. Webb	5.0-5.0	100%	16.8	0.0%
Orange	4.9-5.1	100%	17.1	0.0%
North Buncombe	4.8-5.2	100%	19.0	0.0%
North Henderson	2.4-7.6	100%	20.4	0.0%
Southern Wayne	3.4-6.6	100%	21.6	0.0%
South Brunswick	5.1-4.9	97%	19.7	0.0%
Montgomery Central	4.0-6.0	96%	18.7	0.0%
Charles B Aycock	2.7-7.3	96%	21.0	0.0%
West Carteret	3.0-7.0	92%	20.0	0.0%
Huss	3.1-6.9	92%	22.8	0.0%
Forestview	2.0-8.0	88%	23.1	0.0%
Person	2.7-8.3	83%	22.3	0.0%
Concord	2.5-7.5	71%	21.1	0.0%
North Lincoln	2.2-7.8	62%	21.4	0.0%
East Rowan	2.8-7.2	56%	21.2	0.0%
Richlands	2.0-8.0	39%	22.1	0.0%
Dixon	2.6-7.3	27%	23.3	0.0%
North Forsyth Magnet	1.6-8.4	2%	22.0	0.0%
Atkins	1.5-8.5	1%	24.0	0.0%
North Gaston	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%
Southern Guilford	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Douglas Byrd	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Cedar Ridge	0.3-7.7	0%	—	0.0%

4A

Projected champion: Hibriten · wins the title in 19% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43	Cummings	1-5-0	99%	In	0.44114	40	0.4240
44	Nash Central	0-6-0	98%	In	0.36796	47	0.4280
45	Southwest	1-5-0	93%	In	0.34224	49	0.4059
On the bubble
46	Lincoln Charter	1-5-0	70%	Bubble	0.39259	45	0.3817
47	East Henderson	1-6-0	70%	Bubble	0.37460	46	0.3767
48	Central Davidson	2-5-0	68%	Bubble	0.35168	48	0.3767
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Carver	1-5-0	31%	Bubble	0.28561	55	0.3374
50	North Johnston	1-6-0	28%	Bubble	0.29561	54	0.3395
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51	Graham	0-1-0	14%	Out	0.46667	35	0.3429
52	Red Springs	1-5-0	12%	Out	0.29926	52	0.3453
53	Ashe County	1-5-0	9%	Out	0.31144	50	0.3472

48 of 57 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Anson2717Lexington20Anson 70% · at Anson

9Roanoke Rapids2124Central Davidson25Central Davidson 63% · at Roanoke Rapids

13Bunn2720Nash Central20Bunn 69% · at Bunn

12West Stanly3121Cummings18West Stanly 80% · at West Stanly

15Fairmont2118North Pitt24North Pitt 60% · at Fairmont

10Morehead2623Southwest21Morehead 64% · at Morehead

14Ledford2719Washington20Ledford 68% · at Ledford

11Randleman4622Jordan-Matthews12Randleman 98% · at Randleman

Second Round

1East Duplin3316Anson18East Duplin 85% · at East Duplin

8Eastern Wayne3624Central Davidson16Eastern Wayne 90% · at Eastern Wayne

4SouthWest Edgecombe3713Bunn16SouthWest Edgecombe 92% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

5West Craven4312West Stanly14West Craven 96% · at West Craven

2T Wingate Andrews4218North Pitt14T Wingate Andrews 96% · at T Wingate Andrews

7Southwestern Randolph2910Morehead19Southwestern Randolph 75% · at Southwestern Randolph

3Clinton3014Ledford19Clinton 77% · at Clinton

6Reidsville4211Randleman14Reidsville 96% · at Reidsville

Third Round

1East Duplin258Eastern Wayne21East Duplin 61% · at East Duplin

4SouthWest Edgecombe205West Craven28West Craven 71% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

2T Wingate Andrews407Southwestern Randolph15T Wingate Andrews 94% · at T Wingate Andrews

3Clinton166Reidsville37Reidsville 91% · at Clinton

Fourth Round

1East Duplin205West Craven27West Craven 70% · at East Duplin

2T Wingate Andrews216Reidsville25Reidsville 63% · at T Wingate Andrews

Regional Final

5West Craven226Reidsville23Reidsville 54% · at West Craven

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Bandys2517Bunker Hill21Bandys 61% · at Bandys

9Wilkes Central4424East Henderson13Wilkes Central 97% · at Wilkes Central

13East Burke2120Newton-Conover26Newton-Conover 64% · at East Burke

12Lake Norman Charter3021Salisbury19Lake Norman Charter 79% · at Lake Norman Charter

15Maiden3518Foard17Maiden 89% · at Maiden

10South Rowan4623Lincoln Charter12South Rowan 98% · at South Rowan

14North Surry2919East Gaston19North Surry 76% · at North Surry

11West Stokes4322Forbush14West Stokes 96% · at West Stokes

Second Round

1Hibriten4116Bandys14Hibriten 95% · at Hibriten

8Stuart W Cramer329Wilkes Central18Stuart W Cramer 84% · at Stuart W Cramer

4Burns3920Newton-Conover15Burns 94% · at Burns

5R-S Central3412Lake Norman Charter17R-S Central 88% · at R-S Central

2Tuscola3615Maiden16Tuscola 90% · at Tuscola

7Pisgah2610South Rowan21Pisgah 64% · at Pisgah

3West Iredell4414North Surry13West Iredell 97% · at West Iredell

6Mount Pleasant2811West Stokes20Mount Pleasant 72% · at Mount Pleasant

Third Round

1Hibriten298Stuart W Cramer19Hibriten 75% · at Hibriten

4Burns335R-S Central17Burns 86% · at Burns

2Tuscola387Pisgah16Tuscola 93% · at Tuscola

3West Iredell346Mount Pleasant17West Iredell 88% · at West Iredell

Fourth Round

1Hibriten274Burns20Hibriten 69% · at Hibriten

2Tuscola243West Iredell21Tuscola 57% · at Tuscola

Regional Final

1Hibriten232Tuscola22Hibriten 53% · at Hibriten

State Championship

Hibriten24Reidsville21Hibriten 57% · neutral site

Every 4A team's projection — 57 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
East Duplin	8.6-1.4	100%	1.5	2.5%
Hibriten	9.8-0.2	100%	1.9	19.2%
Tuscola	8.9-1.1	100%	1.9	16.7%
West Iredell	9.0-1.0	100%	2.6	12.5%
T Wingate Andrews	8.7-1.3	100%	2.9	15.0%
Clinton	7.1-2.9	100%	2.9	0.8%
Burns	7.3-2.7	100%	4.5	2.5%
SouthWest Edgecombe	7.2-1.8	100%	4.2	5.0%
R-S Central	7.8-2.2	100%	6.1	0.0%
West Craven	7.4-2.6	100%	5.4	8.3%
Reidsville	7.0-3.0	100%	5.6	12.5%
Mount Pleasant	6.1-3.9	100%	7.5	0.8%
Pisgah	6.0-4.0	100%	8.8	0.0%
Stuart W Cramer	7.3-2.7	100%	8.9	1.7%
Southwestern Randolph	7.7-2.3	100%	7.8	0.0%
Wilkes Central	7.4-2.6	100%	10.1	0.0%
South Rowan	6.3-3.7	100%	10.1	0.0%
Eastern Wayne	7.0-2.0	100%	8.5	1.7%
West Stokes	5.8-4.2	100%	10.5	0.0%
Lake Norman Charter	5.9-4.1	100%	11.0	0.0%
East Burke	5.3-4.7	100%	12.7	0.0%
Roanoke Rapids	5.5-4.5	100%	11.1	0.8%
North Surry	5.7-4.3	100%	13.9	0.0%
Morehead	5.4-4.6	100%	11.6	0.0%
Randleman	4.3-5.7	100%	12.1	0.0%
West Stanly	3.6-6.4	100%	14.2	0.0%
Maiden	4.4-5.6	100%	15.3	0.0%
Bunn	5.4-4.6	100%	13.0	0.0%
Ledford	4.3-5.7	100%	12.8	0.0%
Fairmont	4.6-5.4	100%	13.2	0.0%
Bandys	4.1-5.9	100%	16.2	0.0%
Anson	4.9-5.1	100%	14.2	0.0%
Bunker Hill	4.8-5.2	100%	16.5	0.0%
Foard	3.4-6.6	100%	18.3	0.0%
East Gaston	4.8-5.2	100%	18.6	0.0%
Newton-Conover	3.4-6.6	100%	19.0	0.0%
Lexington	3.6-6.3	100%	17.3	0.0%
North Pitt	3.8-6.2	100%	18.1	0.0%
Washington	2.5-7.5	100%	18.7	0.0%
Salisbury	1.5-8.5	100%	21.2	0.0%
Forbush	4.1-5.9	100%	21.4	0.0%
Jordan-Matthews	4.2-5.8	100%	20.1	0.0%
Cummings	2.4-8.6	99%	19.6	0.0%
Nash Central	2.2-7.8	98%	18.6	0.0%
Southwest	3.1-6.9	93%	20.9	0.0%
Lincoln Charter	1.9-8.2	70%	22.9	0.0%
East Henderson	1.7-8.3	70%	23.2	0.0%
Central Davidson	2.7-7.3	68%	22.2	0.0%
Carver	2.4-7.6	31%	23.5	0.0%
North Johnston	1.7-8.3	28%	23.7	0.0%
Graham	0.2-6.8	14%	21.6	0.0%
Red Springs	2.1-7.9	12%	23.1	0.0%
Ashe County	1.1-8.9	9%	23.8	0.0%
Brevard	0.4-9.6	4%	23.4	0.0%
Carrboro	1.7-8.3	2%	24.0	0.0%
North Lenoir	0.5-9.5	2%	22.5	0.0%
First Flight	0.0-9.0	0%	—	0.0%

3A

Projected champion: Shelby · wins the title in 41% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
42	North Moore	0-7-0	100%	In	0.37141	40	0.3644
43	Heide Trask	2-4-0	100%	In	0.35168	43	0.3515
44	Polk County	1-6-0	92%	In	0.32308	46	0.3657
On the bubble
45	Bartlett Yancey	1-5-0	84%	Bubble	0.31725	47	0.3424
46	Patton	1-6-0	75%	Bubble	0.31338	49	0.3285
47	McMichael	1-5-0	46%	Bubble	0.34193	44	0.3315
48	Bessemer City	0-7-0	46%	Bubble	0.28433	51	0.3126
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Trinity	1-5-0	42%	Bubble	0.31638	48	0.3226
50	Madison	1-6-0	36%	Bubble	0.32385	45	0.3237
51	Draughn	0-7-0	35%	Bubble	0.29183	50	0.3206
52	Goldsboro	0-6-0	33%	Bubble	0.26619	52	0.3053
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53	Spring Creek		11%	Out	—	—	0.2757
54	Beddingfield	0-6-0	0%	Out	0.23333	53	0.2720
55	West Bladen	0-5-0	0%	Out	0.21224	55	0.2662

48 of 56 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Greene Central3617Northwood16Greene Central 91% · at Greene Central

9South Columbus4624Bartlett Yancey12South Columbus 98% · at South Columbus

13Wake Preparatory Academy4120South Lenoir14Wake Preparatory Academy 95% · at Wake Preparatory Academy

12Princeton3821Ayden-Grifton16Princeton 93% · at Princeton

15Pasquotank County2218Farmville Central22Pasquotank County 51% · at Pasquotank County

10Louisburg Magnet3623Heide Trask16Louisburg Magnet 91% · at Louisburg Magnet

14Kinston3219Pender18Kinston 83% · at Kinston

11Providence Grove4822North Moore12Providence Grove 98% · at Providence Grove

Second Round

1Whiteville2516Greene Central21Whiteville 62% · at Whiteville

8Hertford County349South Columbus17Hertford County 86% · at Hertford County

4Northeastern4213Wake Preparatory Academy14Northeastern 96% · at Northeastern

5Martin County2712Princeton20Martin County 69% · at Martin County

2Midway3515Pasquotank County17Midway 89% · at Midway

7Wallace-Rose Hill4210Louisburg Magnet14Wallace-Rose Hill 96% · at Wallace-Rose Hill

3James Kenan3114Kinston18James Kenan 82% · at James Kenan

6Eastern Randolph3711Providence Grove16Eastern Randolph 92% · at Eastern Randolph

Third Round

1Whiteville228Hertford County22Whiteville 51% · at Whiteville

4Northeastern265Martin County21Northeastern 64% · at Northeastern

2Midway217Wallace-Rose Hill25Wallace-Rose Hill 61% · at Midway

3James Kenan266Eastern Randolph20James Kenan 65% · at James Kenan

Fourth Round

1Whiteville194Northeastern29Northeastern 75% · at Whiteville

3James Kenan277Wallace-Rose Hill20James Kenan 69% · at James Kenan

Regional Final

3James Kenan244Northeastern21James Kenan 58% · at James Kenan

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16East Surry4117East Davidson14East Surry 95% · at East Surry

9West Davidson4724Bessemer City12West Davidson 98% · at West Davidson

13Owen2820Wheatmore19Owen 74% · at Owen

12Union Academy3421Polk County17Union Academy 87% · at Union Academy

15East Rutherford3318Pine Lake Preparatory18East Rutherford 85% · at East Rutherford

10Mountain Heritage4823Patton12Mountain Heritage 98% · at Mountain Heritage

14North Wilkes2419West Lincoln21North Wilkes 57% · at North Wilkes

11Chase5022McMichael11Chase 99% · at Chase

Second Round

1North Stanly3716East Surry16North Stanly 91% · at North Stanly

8West Wilkes219West Davidson24West Davidson 56% · at West Wilkes

4Walkertown4213Owen14Walkertown 96% · at Walkertown

5Thomasville4112Union Academy15Thomasville 95% · at Thomasville

2Shelby4715East Rutherford12Shelby 98% · at Shelby

7Lincolnton3810Mountain Heritage15Lincolnton 93% · at Lincolnton

3Hendersonville4214North Wilkes14Hendersonville 96% · at Hendersonville

6Mount Airy3711Chase16Mount Airy 92% · at Mount Airy

Third Round

1North Stanly379West Davidson16North Stanly 92% · at North Stanly

4Walkertown215Thomasville24Thomasville 59% · at Walkertown

2Shelby307Lincolnton19Shelby 78% · at Shelby

3Hendersonville236Mount Airy22Hendersonville 54% · at Hendersonville

Fourth Round

1North Stanly255Thomasville21North Stanly 61% · at North Stanly

2Shelby363Hendersonville17Shelby 90% · at Shelby

Regional Final

1North Stanly182Shelby33Shelby 85% · at North Stanly

State Championship

Shelby31James Kenan18Shelby 80% · neutral site

Every 3A team's projection — 56 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
North Stanly	8.6-0.4	100%	1.6	9.2%
Shelby	8.5-1.5	100%	2.4	40.8%
Whiteville	9.5-0.5	100%	2.5	0.8%
Hendersonville	9.8-0.2	100%	2.7	2.5%
Midway	8.3-1.7	100%	2.8	2.5%
James Kenan	7.3-1.7	100%	4.3	8.3%
Northeastern	8.0-2.0	100%	4.4	6.7%
Martin County	8.8-2.2	100%	4.5	3.3%
Walkertown	8.8-1.2	100%	4.8	0.8%
Eastern Randolph	6.9-3.1	100%	6.0	2.5%
Thomasville	8.7-1.3	100%	5.8	5.0%
Mount Airy	7.5-2.5	100%	5.4	1.7%
Wallace-Rose Hill	5.9-3.1	100%	6.4	3.3%
Hertford County	6.7-3.4	100%	7.0	0.0%
Lincolnton	7.7-2.3	100%	6.7	10.0%
South Columbus	6.7-3.3	100%	10.1	0.0%
West Wilkes	6.7-3.3	100%	9.6	0.0%
West Davidson	7.0-3.0	100%	10.0	0.0%
Louisburg Magnet	7.4-2.6	100%	11.2	0.0%
Providence Grove	6.0-4.0	100%	11.1	0.0%
Mountain Heritage	6.2-3.8	100%	10.4	0.0%
Chase	7.0-3.0	100%	10.5	0.0%
Union Academy	6.6-3.4	100%	10.8	0.0%
Princeton	6.2-4.8	100%	12.3	2.5%
Wake Preparatory Academy	6.4-3.6	100%	12.6	0.0%
Kinston	6.5-3.5	100%	13.6	0.0%
Pasquotank County	4.8-5.2	100%	14.1	0.0%
Greene Central	6.0-4.0	100%	14.8	0.0%
Northwood	4.7-5.3	100%	14.9	0.0%
Owen	5.1-4.9	100%	14.1	0.0%
North Wilkes	4.7-5.3	100%	14.5	0.0%
East Rutherford	3.0-7.0	100%	15.3	0.0%
East Surry	3.9-6.1	100%	15.6	0.0%
Farmville Central	4.0-6.0	100%	17.5	0.0%
Pender	4.7-5.3	100%	17.5	0.0%
East Davidson	3.6-6.4	100%	17.5	0.0%
Pine Lake Preparatory	4.5-5.5	100%	17.5	0.0%
West Lincoln	3.5-6.5	100%	18.8	0.0%
South Lenoir	4.2-6.8	100%	20.1	0.0%
Ayden-Grifton	2.6-7.4	100%	20.7	0.0%
Wheatmore	2.6-7.3	100%	20.1	0.0%
North Moore	0.0-10.0	100%	22.0	0.0%
Heide Trask	2.2-7.8	100%	22.8	0.0%
Polk County	2.3-7.7	92%	21.2	0.0%
Bartlett Yancey	2.3-7.7	84%	22.7	0.0%
Patton	1.1-8.9	75%	23.0	0.0%
McMichael	1.4-8.6	46%	22.4	0.0%
Bessemer City	0.6-9.4	46%	23.2	0.0%
Trinity	1.1-8.9	42%	23.1	0.0%
Madison	1.4-8.6	36%	22.0	0.0%
Draughn	0.0-10.0	35%	23.3	0.0%
Goldsboro	0.4-9.6	33%	23.6	0.0%
Spring Creek	0.7-3.3	11%	21.5	0.0%
Beddingfield	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
West Bladen	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Surry Central	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%

2A

Projected champion: Tarboro · wins the title in 38% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.

Projected bracket

46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-9

16Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic2017East Carteret26East Carteret 65% · at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic

13Rosewood4220Pamlico County14Rosewood 96% · at Rosewood

12Camden County3821Lejeune16Camden County 93% · at Camden County

15Perquimans County2718Union20Perquimans County 67% · at Perquimans County

10Hobbton4223American Leadership Academy - Johnston14Hobbton 96% · at Hobbton

14West Columbus2819Northampton County20West Columbus 73% · at West Columbus

11Bertie4622Triangle Math and Science Academy12Bertie 98% · at Bertie

Second Round

1Tarboro5217East Carteret10Tarboro 99% · at Tarboro

8Lakewood259North Duplin Jr Sr21Lakewood 62% · at Lakewood

4East Bladen2913Rosewood19East Bladen 77% · at East Bladen

5Southside2112Camden County24Camden County 56% · at Southside

2Warren County4915Perquimans County11Warren County 99% · at Warren County

7Manteo2110Hobbton23Hobbton 55% · at Manteo

3Holmes4814West Columbus12Holmes 98% · at Holmes

6Gates County3911Bertie15Gates County 94% · at Gates County

Third Round

1Tarboro478Lakewood12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro

4East Bladen3512Camden County17East Bladen 89% · at East Bladen

2Warren County4510Hobbton13Warren County 97% · at Warren County

3Holmes416Gates County14Holmes 95% · at Holmes

Fourth Round

1Tarboro454East Bladen13Tarboro 97% · at Tarboro

2Warren County263Holmes20Warren County 65% · at Warren County

Regional Final

1Tarboro272Warren County20Tarboro 67% · at Tarboro

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-9

16Bishop McGuinness2217Avery County23Avery County 52% · at Bishop McGuinness

13South Stokes2420Bradford Preparatory21South Stokes 59% · at South Stokes

12Cherryville4621Elkin12Cherryville 98% · at Cherryville

15Albemarle2418Langtree Charter Academy21Albemarle 58% · at Albemarle

10Mountain Island Charter4923Highland Tech11Mountain Island Charter 99% · at Mountain Island Charter

14Swain County2919South Stanly19Swain County 76% · at Swain County

11Cherokee4322Hayesville14Cherokee 97% · at Cherokee

Second Round

1Starmount4917Avery County11Starmount 99% · at Starmount

8Alleghany219Mitchell23Mitchell 55% · at Alleghany

4Community School of Davidson4813South Stokes12Community School of Davidson 98% · at Community School of Davidson

5Christ the King3412Cherryville17Christ the King 87% · at Christ the King

2Corvian Community4815Albemarle12Corvian Community 98% · at Corvian Community

7East Wilkes3810Mountain Island Charter16East Wilkes 93% · at East Wilkes

3North Rowan4014Swain County15North Rowan 95% · at North Rowan

6Murphy3711Cherokee16Murphy 92% · at Murphy

Third Round

1Starmount349Mitchell17Starmount 86% · at Starmount

4Community School of Davidson255Christ the King21Community School of Davidson 63% · at Community School of Davidson

2Corvian Community257East Wilkes21Corvian Community 61% · at Corvian Community

3North Rowan246Murphy21North Rowan 58% · at North Rowan

Fourth Round

1Starmount284Community School of Davidson20Starmount 72% · at Starmount

2Corvian Community283North Rowan20Corvian Community 72% · at Corvian Community

Regional Final

1Starmount242Corvian Community21Starmount 57% · at Starmount

State Championship

Tarboro28Starmount20Tarboro 73% · neutral site

Every 2A team's projection — 46 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Tarboro	8.8-1.2	100%	1.4	38.3%
Starmount	8.5-1.5	100%	2.3	4.2%
Warren County	10.0-0.0	100%	2.3	24.2%
Holmes	7.9-1.1	100%	2.4	19.2%
Corvian Community	8.0-2.0	100%	2.8	5.0%
North Rowan	8.1-1.9	100%	3.7	0.8%
Community School of Davidson	7.5-2.5	100%	4.0	1.7%
Christ the King	8.2-1.8	100%	4.0	3.3%
Murphy	7.5-2.5	100%	6.6	0.8%
East Bladen	7.4-2.6	100%	4.6	0.0%
East Wilkes	6.3-3.6	100%	7.6	2.5%
Alleghany	6.3-3.7	100%	7.9	0.0%
Mitchell	7.6-2.4	100%	8.4	0.0%
Southside	6.8-3.2	100%	5.9	0.0%
Mountain Island Charter	7.4-2.6	100%	9.6	0.0%
Cherokee	5.8-4.2	100%	10.2	0.0%
Gates County	5.5-4.5	100%	7.3	0.0%
Manteo	5.8-4.2	100%	7.2	0.0%
Lakewood	5.5-4.5	100%	7.3	0.0%
Cherryville	5.8-4.2	100%	11.4	0.0%
North Duplin Jr Sr	5.6-4.4	100%	8.8	0.0%
South Stokes	5.9-4.1	100%	13.0	0.0%
Hobbton	4.0-6.0	100%	11.9	0.0%
Bertie	2.9-7.2	100%	12.3	0.0%
Camden County	3.9-6.1	100%	13.5	0.0%
Rosewood	4.1-6.9	100%	13.4	0.0%
West Columbus	3.2-5.8	100%	13.8	0.0%
Swain County	3.0-7.0	100%	15.5	0.0%
Albemarle	3.6-6.4	100%	15.5	0.0%
Perquimans County	3.2-6.8	100%	14.8	0.0%
Bishop McGuinness	4.0-6.0	100%	16.2	0.0%
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic	3.8-6.2	100%	16.4	0.0%
East Carteret	3.5-6.5	100%	16.6	0.0%
Avery County	3.6-6.4	100%	16.9	0.0%
Langtree Charter Academy	3.1-6.9	100%	17.4	0.0%
Union	4.0-6.0	100%	17.2	0.0%
South Stanly	2.6-7.4	100%	17.6	0.0%
Northampton County	2.4-7.6	100%	18.0	0.0%
Pamlico County	2.8-7.2	100%	18.3	0.0%
Lejeune	3.0-6.0	100%	18.7	0.0%
Triangle Math and Science Academy	2.0-6.0	100%	21.1	0.0%
Bradford Preparatory	1.9-8.1	100%	20.3	0.0%
Elkin	2.0-8.0	100%	21.0	0.0%
Hayesville	1.5-7.5	100%	21.4	0.0%
American Leadership Academy - Johnston	1.0-8.0	100%	22.8	0.0%
Highland Tech	0.4-9.6	100%	22.6	0.0%

1A

Projected champion: Wilson Preparatory Academy · wins the title in 27% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.

Projected bracket

25 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-3

8North East Carolina Prep219Washington County25Washington County 63% · at North East Carolina Prep

4Columbia4113Jones14Columbia 95% · at Columbia

5Sallie B Howard4212Weldon STEM14Sallie B Howard 96% · at Sallie B Howard

7KIPP Pride4410Mattamuskeet13KIPP Pride 97% · at KIPP Pride

6Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy3611Bear Grass Charter16Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 91% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy

Second Round

1Northside469Washington County12Northside 98% · at Northside

4Columbia185Sallie B Howard33Sallie B Howard 85% · at Columbia

2Hobgood Charter267KIPP Pride20Hobgood Charter 66% · at Hobgood Charter

3North Edgecombe266Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy21North Edgecombe 64% · at North Edgecombe

Third Round

1Northside465Sallie B Howard12Northside 98% · at Northside

2Hobgood Charter213North Edgecombe26North Edgecombe 64% · at Hobgood Charter

Regional Final

1Northside453North Edgecombe13Northside 97% · at Northside

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy219College Prep and Leadership Academy26College Prep and Leadership Academy 64% · at Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy

5Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad4412North Stokes13Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 97% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad

7Rosman3410Andrews17Rosman 87% · at Rosman

6East Columbus Junior-Senior2011Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy27Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 67% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior

Second Round

1Chatham Central369College Prep and Leadership Academy16Chatham Central 90% · at Chatham Central

4South Davidson Middle and245Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad21South Davidson Middle and 56% · at South Davidson Middle and

2Wilson Preparatory Academy447Rosman13Wilson Preparatory Academy 97% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

3Robbinsville4511Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy13Robbinsville 97% · at Robbinsville

Third Round

1Chatham Central224South Davidson Middle and23South Davidson Middle and 54% · at Chatham Central

2Wilson Preparatory Academy223Robbinsville22Wilson Preparatory Academy 50% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

Regional Final

2Wilson Preparatory Academy434South Davidson Middle and14Wilson Preparatory Academy 96% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

State Championship

Northside22Wilson Preparatory Academy23Wilson Preparatory Academy 52% · neutral site

Every 1A team's projection — 25 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Northside	9.9-0.1	100%	1.0	55.0%
Chatham Central	9.0-1.0	100%	1.5	0.0%
Wilson Preparatory Academy	5.8-4.2	100%	1.9	26.7%
Hobgood Charter	7.5-2.5	100%	2.6	0.0%
Robbinsville	5.2-4.8	100%	3.1	17.5%
North Edgecombe	5.9-4.1	100%	3.3	0.0%
South Davidson Middle and	6.4-3.6	100%	4.6	0.0%
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad	5.2-4.8	100%	5.1	0.8%
Columbia	5.6-4.4	100%	5.0	0.0%
Sallie B Howard	5.2-4.8	100%	5.7	0.0%
East Columbus Junior-Senior	3.4-6.6	100%	5.9	0.0%
Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy	4.2-5.8	100%	5.7	0.0%
KIPP Pride	3.5-6.5	100%	6.4	0.0%
Rosman	4.4-5.6	100%	7.0	0.0%
North East Carolina Prep	3.9-6.1	100%	7.2	0.0%
Washington County	2.9-7.1	100%	7.2	0.0%
Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy	1.1-8.9	100%	8.8	0.0%
Mattamuskeet	0.6-8.4	100%	9.8	0.0%
Bear Grass Charter	1.4-8.6	100%	10.3	0.0%
College Prep and Leadership Academy	1.1-7.9	100%	10.3	0.0%
Andrews	0.7-8.3	100%	10.4	0.0%
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy	1.0-8.0	100%	10.8	0.0%
Weldon STEM	0.4-8.6	100%	11.4	0.0%
North Stokes	0.4-9.6	100%	11.9	0.0%
Jones	0.1-10.9	100%	12.1	0.0%