Work in progress. This report is in active development.
Ratings and projections will change as the system is refined, and some
sections are not yet complete.
Ratings basis: 2272 2026 results, seeded with 2025Home field: +1.1 ptsGenerated October 02, 2026
Programs That Ended Their Season
First Flight (Kill Devil Hills) stopped on September 18 at 0-4: not enough players to continue the varsity season safely. The Outer Banks Voice
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy (Mooresboro) stopped on September 23 at 1-3: a large number of serious injuries and too few players remaining. WBTV
West Bladen (Bladenboro) stopped on September 24 at 0-5: not enough healthy players to take the field safely. WITN
Under NCHSAA rules, a school that stops mid-season forfeits each conference game it has left, and those count as wins for the opponents. Its other remaining games are no contest and count for no one.
Week 7 Projections
198 games. Sorted with the closest matchups first.
Thursday, October 1 — 1 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
College Prep and Leadership Academy at South Davidson Middle andconf
South Davidson Middle and36–16
91%
Friday, October 2 — 196 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
Princeton at Wallace-Rose Hillconf
Princeton22–22
50%
Nash Central at Louisburg Magnetconf
Nash Central22–22
52%
Heide Trask at South Lenoirconf
Heide Trask22–22
52%
Terry Sanford at Purnell Swettconf
Purnell Swett22–22
52%
Wake Preparatory Academy at Roanoke Rapidsconf
Roanoke Rapids23–22
52%
Sallie B Howard at North East Carolina Prepconf
North East Carolina Prep23–22
54%
Mount Tabor at North Davidsonconf
North Davidson23–22
54%
Forest Hills at Mount Pleasantconf
Forest Hills23–22
55%
Franklin at Tuscolaconf
Tuscola24–21
56%
Willow Spring at Green Levelconf
Willow Spring24–21
57%
Jordan at Green Hopeconf
Jordan24–21
58%
West Henderson at Pisgahconf
Pisgah24–21
58%
Lexington at Central Davidsonconf
Central Davidson24–21
59%
Pender at Clintonconf
Clinton24–21
60%
Southwest Guilford at Western Guilfordconf
Southwest Guilford25–21
61%
North Moore at Jordan-Matthewsconf
Jordan-Matthews25–21
61%
Newton-Conover at North Lincolnconf
Newton-Conover25–21
62%
Westover at South Viewconf
Westover25–21
63%
West Columbus at East Columbus Junior-Seniorconf
West Columbus25–21
63%
Crest at South Pointconf
South Point25–21
63%
Stuart W Cramer at Burnsconf
Burns26–21
64%
New Bern at Jacksonvilleconf
Jacksonville26–21
64%
Cherryville at West Lincolnconf
West Lincoln26–21
64%
North Brunswick at West Brunswickconf
North Brunswick26–21
64%
Randleman at Montgomery Centralconf
Montgomery Central26–20
64%
Southside at East Carteretconf
East Carteret26–20
65%
Williams at Southern Alamanceconf
Southern Alamance26–20
65%
Corinth Holders at Wakefieldconf
Corinth Holders26–20
66%
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic at KIPP Prideconf
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic26–20
66%
Overhills at Hoke Countyconf
Hoke County26–20
66%
Southeast Raleigh at Claytonconf
Clayton26–20
67%
South Mecklenburg at West Mecklenburgconf
South Mecklenburg26–20
67%
West Davidson at Providence Groveconf
Providence Grove26–20
67%
East Rowan at Salisburyconf
East Rowan27–20
68%
North Raleigh Christian Academy at Harrells Christian Academyconf
Harrells Christian Academy27–20
68%
Starmount at East Wilkesconf
Starmount27–20
68%
Rocky Mount Preparatory at North Edgecombe
Rocky Mount Preparatory27–20
69%
Eastern Guilford at Southeast Guilfordconf
Southeast Guilford27–20
69%
West Cabarrus at Harding Universityconf
West Cabarrus27–20
69%
West Forsyth at East Forsythconf
West Forsyth27–20
69%
Covenant Day at Hickory Grove Christianconf
Hickory Grove Christian27–20
69%
Northwest Cabarrus at Carsonconf
Northwest Cabarrus27–20
70%
South Stokes at Bishop McGuinnessconf
Bishop McGuinness27–20
70%
Cox Mill at Central Cabarrusconf
Central Cabarrus27–20
70%
Langtree Charter Academy at Lincoln Charterconf
Langtree Charter Academy28–20
71%
East Lincoln at West Iredellconf
East Lincoln28–20
72%
SouthWest Edgecombe at Eastern Wayneconf
Eastern Wayne28–20
73%
Reynolds at Erwinconf
Erwin28–19
73%
Piedmont at Porter Ridgeconf
Porter Ridge29–19
74%
Fairmont at South Columbusconf
South Columbus29–19
75%
Anson at West Stanlyconf
Anson29–19
76%
West Wilkes at Alleghanyconf
Alleghany29–19
76%
Northview Academy at Volunteer (TN)conf
no rating for one side
—
McDowell at South Caldwellconf
South Caldwell30–19
77%
Northern at Riversideconf
Riverside30–19
77%
Holly Springs at Caryconf
Holly Springs30–19
77%
Enloe at Athens Driveconf
Enloe30–19
77%
Laney at Topsailconf
Laney30–19
77%
East Wake at Heritageconf
Heritage30–19
77%
James Kenan at Midwayconf
James Kenan30–19
78%
Seaforth at Orangeconf
Seaforth30–19
79%
Freedom at Wataugaconf
Watauga30–19
79%
West Charlotte at Independenceconf
West Charlotte31–18
80%
Croatan at Northsideconf
Northside31–18
81%
Western Harnett at Lee Countyconf
Lee County31–18
81%
West Johnston at Tritonconf
Triton31–18
81%
North Johnston at Washingtonconf
Washington31–18
82%
North Duplin Jr Sr at East Bladenconf
East Bladen32–18
82%
Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy] at Charlotte Country Day School
Cannon [Cannon/Concord Academy]32–18
83%
Ardrey Kell at Palisadesconf
Palisades32–18
84%
Ravenscroft at GRACE Christian
Ravenscroft32–18
84%
Union Pines at Harnett Centralconf
Union Pines33–18
84%
Jack Britt at Pinecrestconf
Pinecrest33–18
85%
Hobgood Charter at Bear Grass Charterconf
Hobgood Charter34–17
86%
Saint Stephens at Alexander Centralconf
Alexander Central34–17
86%
Asheboro at Northern Guilfordconf
Asheboro34–17
87%
Lake Norman Charter at Community School of Davidsonconf
Community School of Davidson34–17
87%
Perquimans County at Gates Countyconf
Gates County34–17
87%
Union at Hobbtonconf
Hobbton34–17
87%
Marvin Ridge at Weddingtonconf
Weddington34–17
87%
West Rowan at South Rowanconf
West Rowan34–17
88%
Grimsley at Varina (VA)
Grimsley34–17
88%
Foard at Bandysconf
Bandys34–17
88%
Mattamuskeet at Columbiaconf
Columbia34–17
88%
Monroe at Parkwoodconf
Monroe35–17
88%
Mount Airy at North Surryconf
Mount Airy35–17
88%
Enka at North Buncombeconf
Enka35–17
88%
Dixon at Swansboroconf
Swansboro35–17
88%
Parkland at R J Reynoldsconf
R J Reynolds35–17
89%
Trinity at East Davidsonconf
East Davidson35–17
89%
Saint Pauls at E E Smithconf
Saint Pauls35–17
89%
Robbinsville at Swain Countyconf
Robbinsville35–17
89%
Junius H Rose at South Centralconf
Junius H Rose36–16
90%
Wayne Christian at Trinity Christianconf
Trinity Christian36–16
90%
Ashe County at North Wilkesconf
North Wilkes36–16
91%
Apex Friendship at Apexconf
Apex Friendship36–16
91%
Cary Christian at Arendell Parrott Academyconf
Cary Christian36–16
91%
Western Alamance at Southeast Alamanceconf
Southeast Alamance36–16
91%
Asheville at Robersonconf
Roberson37–16
91%
Pasquotank County at Hertford Countyconf
Hertford County37–16
92%
Huss at Forestviewconf
Huss37–16
92%
Ledford at Ambassador Christian School
Ambassador Christian School37–16
92%
Owen at Mitchellconf
Mitchell37–16
92%
East Henderson at North Hendersonconf
North Henderson38–16
92%
Liberty Christian Academy at Community Christianconf
Liberty Christian Academy38–16
92%
D H Conley at White Oakconf
D H Conley38–16
92%
North Lenoir at North Pittconf
North Pitt38–16
93%
East Mecklenburg at Providenceconf
Providence38–16
93%
Greene Central at Tarboroconf
Tarboro39–15
93%
Rolesville at Broughtonconf
Rolesville39–15
94%
Rockingham County at Reidsvilleconf
Reidsville39–15
94%
Millbrook at Leesville Roadconf
Millbrook40–15
94%
Bertie at Manteoconf
Manteo40–15
94%
Rocky Mount Academy at Pungo Christian Academy
Pungo Christian Academy40–15
95%
Currituck County at Northeasternconf
Northeastern40–15
95%
Mountain Heritage at Polk Countyconf
Mountain Heritage40–15
95%
East Duplin at Southwestconf
East Duplin40–15
95%
Pine Forest at Richmondconf
Richmond41–15
95%
Havelock at West Carteretconf
Havelock41–15
95%
Ayden-Grifton at Kinstonconf
Kinston41–15
95%
John Paul II Catholic at Lawrence Academy
John Paul II Catholic41–14
95%
Olympic at A L Brownconf
A L Brown41–14
95%
Hibriten at Chaseconf
Hibriten41–14
95%
Northwood at Eastern Randolphconf
Eastern Randolph41–14
96%
Forbush at West Stokesconf
West Stokes41–14
96%
King's Academy (TN) at Asheville Christian Academy
King's Academy (TN)42–14
96%
Northampton County at Weldon STEM
Northampton County42–14
96%
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad at North Stokesconf
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad42–14
96%
South Brunswick at Red Springsconf
South Brunswick42–14
96%
Rosewood at Martin County
Martin County42–14
96%
South Stanly at North Rowanconf
North Rowan42–14
96%
South Iredell at Mooresvilleconf
Mooresville42–14
96%
Sun Valley at Cuthbertsonconf
Sun Valley42–14
96%
Hayesville at Cherokeeconf
Cherokee42–14
96%
Middle Creek at Sandersonconf
Middle Creek43–14
96%
Pamlico County at Jonesconf
Pamlico County43–14
96%
Rocky Mount at Southern Wayneconf
Rocky Mount43–14
96%
Cape Fear at Lumbertonconf
Cape Fear43–14
97%
Wayne Preparatory Academy at Pungo Christian Academy
Pungo Christian Academy43–13
97%
J. F. Webb at Carrboroconf
J. F. Webb44–13
97%
Hickory at Maidenconf
Hickory44–13
97%
Southern Nash at Fikeconf
Fike44–13
97%
Northeast Academy at Halifax Academy
Halifax Academy45–13
97%
Cardinal Gibbons at Felton Groveconf
Cardinal Gibbons45–13
97%
Northern Nash at Charles B Aycockconf
Northern Nash44–13
97%
Eastern Alamance at Cummingsconf
Eastern Alamance45–13
97%
Glenn at Atkinsconf
Glenn46–12
97%
Franklinton at Knightdaleconf
Franklinton45–13
97%
Wake Christian Academy at Faith Christianconf
Faith Christian47–12
97%
North Stanly at Albemarleconf
North Stanly46–12
97%
Seventy-First at Douglas Byrdconf
Seventy-First56–8
97%
Hillside at East Chapel Hillconf
Hillside47–12
97%
Bartlett Yancey at Walkertownconf
Walkertown51–10
97%
Christ the King at Bradford Preparatoryconf
Christ the King46–12
97%
Graham at Personconf
Person46–13
97%
Southern Lee at South Johnstonconf
South Johnston45–13
97%
North Forsyth Magnet at Oak Groveconf
Oak Grove55–9
97%
Pine Lake Preparatory at Corvian Communityconf
Corvian Community46–12
97%
Mallard Creek at North Mecklenburgconf
Mallard Creek44–13
97%
SouthLake Christian Academy at High Point Christian Academyconf
High Point Christian Academy46–12
97%
Spring Creek at Rosewoodconf
Rosewood48–12
97%
Brevard at Smoky Mountainconf
Smoky Mountain45–13
97%
North Iredell at Davie Countyconf
Davie County55–9
97%
Kings Mountain at North Gastonconf
Kings Mountain59–7
97%
South Granville at Cedar Ridgeconf
South Granville49–11
97%
American Leadership Academy - Johnston at Bunnconf
Bunn44–13
97%
Page at Ragsdaleconf
Page44–13
97%
Wheatmore at Thomasvilleconf
Thomasville46–12
97%
McMichael at Moreheadconf
Morehead46–12
97%
Garner at Smithfield-Selmaconf
Garner52–10
97%
Washington County at Wilson Preparatory Academyconf
Wilson Preparatory Academy45–13
97%
Beddingfield at Farmville Centralconf
Farmville Central48–12
97%
East Surry at Surry Centralconf
East Surry48–12
97%
Wake Forest at Vance Countyconf
Wake Forest50–11
97%
Statesville at Lake Normanconf
Lake Norman49–11
97%
Dudley at Ben L. Smithconf
Dudley47–12
97%
Holmes at Camden Countyconf
Holmes46–12
97%
Northside at Lejeuneconf
Northside49–11
97%
Gray's Creek at Scotlandconf
Scotland44–13
97%
Warren County at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academyconf
Warren County52–10
97%
Chapel Hill at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabiconf
Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi54–9
97%
Myers Park at Garingerconf
Myers Park53–9
97%
New Hanover at Hoggardconf
Hoggard46–12
97%
Reagan at Northwest Guilfordconf
Reagan49–11
97%
Concord at Jay M Robinsonconf
Jay M Robinson49–11
97%
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology at Hickory Ridgeconf
Hickory Ridge46–12
97%
Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy at Union Academyconf
Union Academy48–11
97%
Wilkes Central at Elkinconf
Wilkes Central50–11
97%
Cleveland at Fuquay-Varinaconf
Cleveland45–13
97%
R-S Central at Pattonconf
R-S Central50–11
97%
Lincolnton at Bessemer Cityconf
Lincolnton53–10
97%
East Rutherford at Draughnconf
East Rutherford45–13
97%
Highland Tech at East Gastonconf
East Gaston46–12
97%
Southern Guilford at Northeast Guilfordconf
Northeast Guilford54–9
97%
Hendersonville at Madisonconf
Hendersonville50–11
97%
Murphy at Rosmanconf
Murphy44–13
97%
Saturday, October 3 — 1 games
Matchup
Projected result
Confidence
South Wake Christian Athletics at Cabarrus Stallions
Scoring tables are as played. Adjusted tables account for the opponent, so ten points conceded to a strong offense outranks a shutout of a weak one — the two disagree on purpose.
The official NCHSAA RPI standings, as published by the association on September 28, 2026 (nchsaa.org, powered by MaxPreps): 0.4 win percentage, 0.4 opponents' win percentage, 0.2 opponents' opponents'. Records are NCHSAA's, which can differ from ours where the association has ruled on a forfeit.
The RPI bubble: the teams whose chance of making the playoffs is between 15% and 85%, with the last teams safely in and the first teams out on either edge, listed by that chance. In is 85% or better, Out below 15%.
8A bubble — 24 of 32 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
19
Leesville Road
3-2-0
99%
In
0.51629
18
0.5446
20
Providence
2-4-0
93%
In
0.44161
24
0.4981
21
Hoke County
2-3-0
89%
In
0.51000
19
0.4980
On the bubble
22
South Mecklenburg
2-4-0
82%
Bubble
0.45294
22
0.4555
23
Apex
2-4-0
57%
Bubble
0.39915
27
0.4390
24
Corinth Holders
1-4-0
52%
Bubble
0.43200
26
0.4377
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Wakefield
2-3-0
49%
Bubble
0.44387
23
0.4327
26
Enloe
3-2-0
30%
Bubble
0.50573
20
0.4105
27
Athens Drive
1-4-0
18%
Bubble
0.37842
29
0.3869
28
East Mecklenburg
3-3-0
16%
Bubble
0.43644
25
0.4122
29
Willow Spring
1-4-0
15%
Bubble
0.38093
28
0.3915
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
30
Green Level
1-4-0
1%
Out
0.33040
31
0.3564
31
Northwest Guilford
0-5-0
0%
Out
0.23180
32
0.3530
32
Garinger
2-3-0
0%
Out
0.36640
30
0.3513
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
7A bubble — 48 of 60 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
Parkland
3-2-0
89%
In
0.50933
32
0.4387
45
Jack Britt
2-3-0
88%
In
0.47400
39
0.4697
46
Independence
1-4-0
88%
In
0.47240
40
0.4539
On the bubble
47
Riverside
1-4-0
73%
Bubble
0.37676
51
0.4295
48
South Iredell
1-4-0
58%
Bubble
0.41580
47
0.4181
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Southwest Guilford
1-4-0
43%
Bubble
0.40580
48
0.3967
50
North Mecklenburg
2-3-0
35%
Bubble
0.37693
50
0.3977
51
Cary
2-3-0
30%
Bubble
0.33233
54
0.3808
52
Lumberton
1-4-0
23%
Bubble
0.36080
52
0.3844
53
McDowell
1-4-0
19%
Bubble
0.45413
42
0.3769
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
54
Chapel Hill
1-4-0
9%
Out
0.31520
55
0.3488
55
Cox Mill
1-4-0
8%
Out
0.30533
57
0.3570
56
Cuthbertson
1-5-0
4%
Out
0.34456
53
0.3687
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
6A bubble — 48 of 58 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
38
South Caldwell
2-3-0
95%
In
0.48593
28
0.4618
39
Gray's Creek
3-2-0
92%
In
0.40920
42
0.4514
40
Southeast Guilford
1-4-0
85%
In
0.38960
45
0.4255
On the bubble
41
Central Cabarrus
1-4-0
83%
Bubble
0.43880
35
0.4495
42
West Brunswick
1-5-0
82%
Bubble
0.43022
40
0.4411
43
Reynolds
1-4-0
81%
Bubble
0.37853
48
0.4240
44
Harding University
2-3-0
76%
Bubble
0.45513
31
0.4297
45
Saint Stephens
1-4-0
72%
Bubble
0.37460
49
0.4250
46
Northern
2-3-0
71%
Bubble
0.43069
39
0.4124
47
Lee County
0-5-0
66%
Bubble
0.38500
46
0.4064
48
Western Harnett
3-2-0
64%
Bubble
0.43467
38
0.4093
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
South View
1-4-0
57%
Bubble
0.34000
53
0.4029
50
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
2-3-0
52%
Bubble
0.37987
47
0.3985
51
Terry Sanford
1-4-0
48%
Bubble
0.31920
54
0.3958
52
Western Guilford
2-4-0
40%
Bubble
0.39900
44
0.3898
53
Vance County
0-5-0
33%
Bubble
0.36262
51
0.3756
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
54
E E Smith
0-5-0
12%
Out
0.23093
58
0.3403
55
East Chapel Hill
1-3-0
5%
Out
0.29206
55
0.3265
56
Ben L. Smith
1-5-0
1%
Out
0.27072
57
0.3298
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
5A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44
South Brunswick
2-3-0
94%
In
0.37422
49
0.4512
45
West Carteret
2-3-0
93%
In
0.48004
42
0.4572
46
East Rowan
2-3-0
86%
In
0.49440
40
0.4422
On the bubble
47
North Lincoln
1-5-0
77%
Bubble
0.45117
43
0.4285
48
Concord
1-4-0
72%
Bubble
0.44453
45
0.4254
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Richlands
1-5-0
42%
Bubble
0.35581
51
0.3933
50
Dixon
2-3-0
37%
Bubble
0.32198
53
0.3874
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51
Forestview
0-6-0
12%
Out
0.36106
50
0.3747
52
Atkins
1-4-0
1%
Out
0.38640
48
0.3564
53
North Forsyth Magnet
1-4-0
1%
Out
0.33060
52
0.3451
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
4A bubble — 48 of 57 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43
Lexington
1-4-0
92%
In
0.38680
46
0.4168
44
Foard
1-4-0
91%
In
0.44253
37
0.4034
45
Central Davidson
2-4-0
85%
In
0.39350
44
0.4017
On the bubble
46
Salisbury
0-5-0
77%
Bubble
0.39960
43
0.3837
47
East Henderson
1-5-0
68%
Bubble
0.41883
41
0.3819
48
Red Springs
1-4-0
55%
Bubble
0.36200
47
0.3619
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
North Johnston
1-5-0
44%
Bubble
0.33402
51
0.3565
50
Lincoln Charter
0-5-0
36%
Bubble
0.33140
52
0.3533
51
Carver
1-5-0
24%
Bubble
0.27255
57
0.3328
52
Ashe County
1-4-0
20%
Bubble
0.34393
49
0.3548
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53
Graham
0-1-0
14%
Out
0.46400
34
0.3474
54
North Lenoir
0-6-0
7%
Out
0.27533
56
0.2979
55
Brevard
0-5-0
5%
Out
0.27547
55
0.3258
48 of 57 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
3A bubble — 48 of 56 make the field
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
41
North Moore
0-6-0
100%
In
0.36800
41
0.3753
42
Wheatmore
1-4-0
99%
In
0.37056
40
0.4013
43
Polk County
1-5-0
95%
In
0.32978
45
0.3716
On the bubble
44
Trinity
1-4-0
72%
Bubble
0.33340
43
0.3360
45
Bartlett Yancey
1-4-0
69%
Bubble
0.29673
49
0.3355
46
Bessemer City
0-6-0
62%
Bubble
0.27150
51
0.3199
47
McMichael
1-4-0
58%
Bubble
0.33133
44
0.3406
48
Patton
1-5-0
58%
Bubble
0.30283
48
0.3245
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Heide Trask
1-4-0
48%
Bubble
0.25920
52
0.3250
50
Madison
1-5-0
43%
Bubble
0.30678
47
0.3285
51
Goldsboro
0-6-0
42%
Bubble
0.28644
50
0.3136
52
Spring Creek
39%
Bubble
—
—
0.2824
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53
Draughn
0-6-0
12%
Out
0.31756
46
0.3138
54
Beddingfield
0-5-0
0%
Out
0.20778
53
0.2669
55
West Bladen
0-5-0
0%
Out
0.17773
55
0.2633
48 of 56 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
2A bubble — 48 of 46 make the field
All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
1A bubble — 48 of 25 make the field
All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Winningest Coaches
North Carolina head-coaching records: every game in our archive for the seasons a coach is credited with, from HSFHA, the NCHSAA, NCHSFootball and MaxPreps, with a published stint filling a season no source names. Records outside North Carolina are HSFHA's. Still being completed: for 1980-1999 many seasons have no coach on record anywhere yet.
All-time, by NC wins
Coach
Schools
NC record
Pct
Seasons
State titles
Other states
Career
1
Jack Holley
Tabor City 1964-69, 1972-81; Hallsboro 1970-71; Wallace-Rose Hill 1982-92, 1997-2008; South Columbus 1993-96; Harrells Christian Academy 2009-10
418-126-8
.764
47
418-126-8
2
David Gentry
Edneyville 1974-83; Murphy 1984-2020
406-174-2
.699
47
9
406-174-2
3
Burton Cates
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
Eastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17
389-132
.747
42
1
389-132
2
Jeff Craddock
Tarboro 2004-26
259-49
.841
23
8
259-49
3
Steve Davis
Dudley 2004-26
249-60
.806
23
5
249-60
4
Richard Bailey
Jack Britt 2000-02, 2004, 2006-10; Scotland 2012-26
240-76
.759
24
240-76
5
Antonio Moore
Northeastern 2005-26
234-58
.801
22
234-58
6
Donnie Kiefer
Saint Pauls 1986-87; Southwest Guilford 1988-90; Gates County 1991-93; Andrews 1994-95; Hibriten 1996-98; Roanoke 1999-2003; East Carteret 2004-06; Tuscola 2007-11; Central Cabarrus 2012-16, 2022, 2025-26
120 simulated seasons. Results through week 6 are taken as they stand; every week after that is played out in full, with ratings refit after each one. Outcomes are sampled rather than awarded to the favorite, so upsets happen at the rate the model believes they happen. The mean rating comes back close to where the season has already put each team — a simulation learns nothing new about games nobody has played — so the 10th–90th band, not the mean, is the forecast, and it widens the further out the projection runs.