2026 NCHSAA Football Playoff Projections

Week 7. The bracket is the most likely path: the field is the teams most likely to make it, the same teams above the line in each RPI bubble, seeded on their projected final RPI, and every game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts. The title odds beside it come from playing the rest of the season and the playoffs 120 times, upsets included — a 60% favorite wins this bracket every time and the title 60% of the time. Field sizes and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 48 teams in 1A-7A and 24 in 8A, split east and west by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final and the final at a neutral site.

8A

Projected champion: Hough · wins the title in 48% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
19	Leesville Road	3-2-0	99%	In	0.51629	18	0.5446
20	Providence	2-4-0	93%	In	0.44161	24	0.4981
21	Hoke County	2-3-0	89%	In	0.51000	19	0.4980
On the bubble
22	South Mecklenburg	2-4-0	82%	Bubble	0.45294	22	0.4555
23	Apex	2-4-0	57%	Bubble	0.39915	27	0.4390
24	Corinth Holders	1-4-0	52%	Bubble	0.43200	26	0.4377
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25	Wakefield	2-3-0	49%	Bubble	0.44387	23	0.4327
26	Enloe	3-2-0	30%	Bubble	0.50573	20	0.4105
27	Athens Drive	1-4-0	18%	Bubble	0.37842	29	0.3869
28	East Mecklenburg	3-3-0	16%	Bubble	0.43644	25	0.4122
29	Willow Spring	1-4-0	15%	Bubble	0.38093	28	0.3915
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
30	Green Level	1-4-0	1%	Out	0.33040	31	0.3564
31	Northwest Guilford	0-5-0	0%	Out	0.23180	32	0.3530
32	Garinger	2-3-0	0%	Out	0.36640	30	0.3513

24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Leesville Road309Laney19Leesville Road 78% · at Leesville Road

5Green Hope3112Corinth Holders19Green Hope 80% · at Green Hope

7Broughton2810Panther Creek20Broughton 71% · at Broughton

6Jordan3411Apex17Jordan 87% · at Jordan

Second Round

1Millbrook418Leesville Road14Millbrook 95% · at Millbrook

4Rolesville395Green Hope15Rolesville 94% · at Rolesville

2Apex Friendship317Broughton18Apex Friendship 80% · at Apex Friendship

3Hoggard376Jordan16Hoggard 92% · at Hoggard

Third Round

1Millbrook304Rolesville19Millbrook 77% · at Millbrook

2Apex Friendship183Hoggard32Hoggard 83% · at Apex Friendship

Regional Final

1Millbrook293Hoggard19Millbrook 74% · at Millbrook

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8West Charlotte259Ardrey Kell21West Charlotte 63% · at West Charlotte

5Palisades4412South Mecklenburg13Palisades 97% · at Palisades

7Pinecrest3010Providence19Pinecrest 78% · at Pinecrest

6Myers Park4011Hoke County15Myers Park 94% · at Myers Park

Second Round

1Hough478West Charlotte12Hough 98% · at Hough

4West Forsyth305Palisades19West Forsyth 77% · at West Forsyth

2Chambers387Pinecrest16Chambers 93% · at Chambers

3Mallard Creek306Myers Park19Mallard Creek 77% · at Mallard Creek

Third Round

1Hough384West Forsyth16Hough 92% · at Hough

2Chambers263Mallard Creek20Chambers 67% · at Chambers

Regional Final

1Hough352Chambers17Hough 89% · at Hough

State Championship

Hough33Millbrook18Hough 84% · neutral site

Every 8A team's projection — 32 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Hough	9.9-0.1	100%	1.1	48.3%
Chambers	9.5-0.5	100%	2.0	9.2%
Millbrook	8.9-0.1	100%	1.2	28.3%
Apex Friendship	9.8-0.2	100%	2.3	0.0%
Mallard Creek	7.2-2.8	100%	4.1	1.7%
West Forsyth	8.2-1.8	100%	4.2	2.5%
Hoggard	8.7-1.3	100%	3.1	5.8%
Palisades	8.6-1.4	100%	4.8	0.0%
Myers Park	6.8-3.2	100%	5.9	0.0%
Rolesville	7.4-2.6	100%	4.5	4.2%
Green Hope	8.2-1.8	100%	5.2	0.0%
Jordan	7.2-2.8	100%	6.3	0.0%
Pinecrest	6.0-4.0	100%	7.4	0.0%
West Charlotte	5.2-4.8	100%	8.3	0.0%
Broughton	6.1-3.9	100%	7.7	0.0%
Laney	4.3-5.7	100%	8.7	0.0%
Panther Creek	5.1-4.9	100%	8.9	0.0%
Ardrey Kell	6.5-3.5	99%	8.7	0.0%
Leesville Road	5.6-4.4	99%	7.5	0.0%
Providence	4.4-5.6	93%	10.5	0.0%
Hoke County	4.1-5.9	89%	10.3	0.0%
South Mecklenburg	3.6-6.4	82%	11.5	0.0%
Apex	4.0-6.0	57%	10.7	0.0%
Corinth Holders	3.0-7.0	52%	10.6	0.0%
Wakefield	3.2-6.8	49%	11.0	0.0%
Enloe	3.2-6.8	30%	11.4	0.0%
Athens Drive	2.4-7.6	18%	11.2	0.0%
East Mecklenburg	4.2-5.8	16%	11.7	0.0%
Willow Spring	1.9-8.1	15%	11.7	0.0%
Green Level	1.8-8.2	1%	11.0	0.0%
Northwest Guilford	0.7-9.3	0%	—	0.0%
Garinger	2.2-7.8	0%	—	0.0%

7A

Projected champion: Weddington · wins the title in 29% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44	Parkland	3-2-0	89%	In	0.50933	32	0.4387
45	Jack Britt	2-3-0	88%	In	0.47400	39	0.4697
46	Independence	1-4-0	88%	In	0.47240	40	0.4539
On the bubble
47	Riverside	1-4-0	73%	Bubble	0.37676	51	0.4295
48	South Iredell	1-4-0	58%	Bubble	0.41580	47	0.4181
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Southwest Guilford	1-4-0	43%	Bubble	0.40580	48	0.3967
50	North Mecklenburg	2-3-0	35%	Bubble	0.37693	50	0.3977
51	Cary	2-3-0	30%	Bubble	0.33233	54	0.3808
52	Lumberton	1-4-0	23%	Bubble	0.36080	52	0.3844
53	McDowell	1-4-0	19%	Bubble	0.45413	42	0.3769
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
54	Chapel Hill	1-4-0	9%	Out	0.31520	55	0.3488
55	Cox Mill	1-4-0	8%	Out	0.30533	57	0.3570
56	Cuthbertson	1-5-0	4%	Out	0.34456	53	0.3687

48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Topsail2017Fuquay-Varina28Fuquay-Varina 72% · at Topsail

9Cape Fear4724Riverside12Cape Fear 98% · at Cape Fear

13North Brunswick2620Pine Forest21North Brunswick 64% · at North Brunswick

12South Central3121Sanderson18South Central 80% · at South Central

15New Hanover2318Holly Springs22New Hanover 52% · at New Hanover

10D H Conley3223Heritage18D H Conley 83% · at D H Conley

14Ashley1819South Garner31South Garner 81% · at Ashley

11Hillside2822East Wake20Hillside 73% · at Hillside

Second Round

1Cleveland4617Fuquay-Varina12Cleveland 98% · at Cleveland

8Garner369Cape Fear16Garner 91% · at Garner

4Cardinal Gibbons4413North Brunswick13Cardinal Gibbons 97% · at Cardinal Gibbons

5Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi3212South Central18Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi 83% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi

2Clayton4715New Hanover12Clayton 98% · at Clayton

7Wake Forest3410D H Conley17Wake Forest 87% · at Wake Forest

3New Bern3319South Garner18New Bern 85% · at New Bern

6Southeast Raleigh4611Hillside12Southeast Raleigh 98% · at Southeast Raleigh

Third Round

1Cleveland328Garner18Cleveland 83% · at Cleveland

4Cardinal Gibbons315Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi18Cardinal Gibbons 81% · at Cardinal Gibbons

2Clayton337Wake Forest18Clayton 85% · at Clayton

3New Bern196Southeast Raleigh29Southeast Raleigh 74% · at New Bern

Fourth Round

1Cleveland314Cardinal Gibbons18Cleveland 81% · at Cleveland

2Clayton266Southeast Raleigh20Clayton 67% · at Clayton

Regional Final

1Cleveland262Clayton20Cleveland 66% · at Cleveland

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Purnell Swett1817Jack Britt32Jack Britt 84% · at Purnell Swett

9Davie County4224South Iredell14Davie County 96% · at Davie County

13Richmond3720Porter Ridge16Richmond 92% · at Richmond

12Mooresville4221Ballantyne Ridge14Mooresville 96% · at Mooresville

15Overhills2618West Cabarrus20Overhills 67% · at Overhills

10East Forsyth4923Parkland11East Forsyth 99% · at East Forsyth

14Hopewell2319R J Reynolds21Hopewell 56% · at Hopewell

11Butler2922Independence19Butler 74% · at Butler

Second Round

1Weddington4817Jack Britt12Weddington 98% · at Weddington

8Hickory Ridge259Davie County21Hickory Ridge 62% · at Hickory Ridge

4Reagan3713Richmond16Reagan 91% · at Reagan

5Marvin Ridge3212Mooresville18Marvin Ridge 83% · at Marvin Ridge

2Grimsley4915Overhills11Grimsley 99% · at Grimsley

7Page2410East Forsyth21Page 58% · at Page

3Lake Norman4814Hopewell12Lake Norman 98% · at Lake Norman

6A L Brown3111Butler18A L Brown 81% · at A L Brown

Third Round

1Weddington418Hickory Ridge14Weddington 96% · at Weddington

4Reagan275Marvin Ridge20Reagan 70% · at Reagan

2Grimsley337Page18Grimsley 86% · at Grimsley

3Lake Norman376A L Brown16Lake Norman 91% · at Lake Norman

Fourth Round

1Weddington304Reagan19Weddington 77% · at Weddington

2Grimsley243Lake Norman21Grimsley 57% · at Grimsley

Regional Final

1Weddington252Grimsley21Weddington 62% · at Weddington

State Championship

Weddington26Cleveland21Weddington 64% · neutral site

Every 7A team's projection — 60 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Weddington	9.8-0.2	100%	1.5	29.2%
Grimsley	9.5-0.5	100%	2.2	12.5%
Cleveland	9.2-0.8	100%	1.8	20.8%
Lake Norman	9.7-0.3	100%	4.1	10.8%
Reagan	8.3-1.7	100%	4.4	7.5%
Clayton	8.4-1.6	100%	3.4	3.3%
Marvin Ridge	9.1-0.9	100%	4.6	1.7%
New Bern	7.3-2.7	100%	4.0	0.0%
Cardinal Gibbons	7.5-2.5	100%	3.4	1.7%
A L Brown	9.3-0.7	100%	6.3	0.8%
Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi	7.0-2.0	100%	5.8	0.8%
Southeast Raleigh	7.5-2.5	100%	6.1	3.3%
Wake Forest	7.7-2.3	100%	6.7	0.8%
Page	9.3-0.7	100%	7.6	0.8%
Hickory Ridge	8.5-1.5	100%	7.6	0.0%
Davie County	6.7-3.3	100%	7.8	0.8%
Garner	6.4-3.6	100%	7.3	5.0%
Cape Fear	8.4-2.6	100%	9.2	0.0%
D H Conley	6.0-4.0	100%	9.2	0.0%
East Forsyth	6.5-3.5	100%	9.8	0.0%
Butler	5.1-4.9	100%	11.9	0.0%
Hillside	6.7-3.3	100%	11.5	0.0%
South Central	4.9-5.1	100%	12.1	0.0%
Mooresville	4.4-5.6	100%	12.7	0.0%
Richmond	5.2-5.8	100%	13.5	0.0%
Hopewell	5.9-4.1	100%	14.2	0.0%
North Brunswick	5.4-4.6	100%	14.9	0.0%
Ashley	4.8-5.2	100%	15.4	0.0%
New Hanover	3.7-6.3	100%	17.3	0.0%
Porter Ridge	3.0-7.0	100%	18.9	0.0%
South Garner	3.9-6.1	99%	19.0	0.0%
Ballantyne Ridge	4.3-5.7	99%	19.4	0.0%
Fuquay-Varina	3.6-6.4	98%	18.4	0.0%
Overhills	4.9-5.1	97%	17.6	0.0%
R J Reynolds	4.6-5.4	96%	18.5	0.0%
Topsail	3.5-6.5	95%	17.5	0.0%
Purnell Swett	5.0-5.0	94%	17.3	0.0%
Holly Springs	3.9-6.1	93%	18.7	0.0%
West Cabarrus	3.2-6.8	92%	17.9	0.0%
Sanderson	4.3-4.7	92%	19.0	0.0%
Pine Forest	4.4-6.6	91%	19.2	0.0%
East Wake	4.1-5.9	89%	19.6	0.0%
Heritage	3.6-6.4	89%	19.9	0.0%
Parkland	3.8-6.2	89%	20.5	0.0%
Jack Britt	3.8-6.2	88%	17.6	0.0%
Independence	2.0-8.0	88%	19.0	0.0%
Riverside	3.6-6.4	73%	20.9	0.0%
South Iredell	2.5-7.5	58%	21.2	0.0%
Southwest Guilford	2.4-7.6	43%	21.1	0.0%
North Mecklenburg	2.9-7.1	35%	21.4	0.0%
Cary	3.0-7.0	30%	22.5	0.0%
Lumberton	1.9-8.1	23%	22.0	0.0%
McDowell	1.6-8.4	19%	21.6	0.0%
Chapel Hill	2.1-7.9	9%	22.9	0.0%
Cox Mill	2.1-7.8	8%	23.1	0.0%
Cuthbertson	1.1-8.9	4%	22.2	0.0%
West Mecklenburg	1.5-8.5	4%	23.2	0.0%
Knightdale	0.7-9.3	1%	24.0	0.0%
Smithfield-Selma	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%
Rocky River	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%

6A

Projected champion: Roberson · wins the title in 20% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
38	South Caldwell	2-3-0	95%	In	0.48593	28	0.4618
39	Gray's Creek	3-2-0	92%	In	0.40920	42	0.4514
40	Southeast Guilford	1-4-0	85%	In	0.38960	45	0.4255
On the bubble
41	Central Cabarrus	1-4-0	83%	Bubble	0.43880	35	0.4495
42	West Brunswick	1-5-0	82%	Bubble	0.43022	40	0.4411
43	Reynolds	1-4-0	81%	Bubble	0.37853	48	0.4240
44	Harding University	2-3-0	76%	Bubble	0.45513	31	0.4297
45	Saint Stephens	1-4-0	72%	Bubble	0.37460	49	0.4250
46	Northern	2-3-0	71%	Bubble	0.43069	39	0.4124
47	Lee County	0-5-0	66%	Bubble	0.38500	46	0.4064
48	Western Harnett	3-2-0	64%	Bubble	0.43467	38	0.4093
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	South View	1-4-0	57%	Bubble	0.34000	53	0.4029
50	Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	2-3-0	52%	Bubble	0.37987	47	0.3985
51	Terry Sanford	1-4-0	48%	Bubble	0.31920	54	0.3958
52	Western Guilford	2-4-0	40%	Bubble	0.39900	44	0.3898
53	Vance County	0-5-0	33%	Bubble	0.36262	51	0.3756
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
54	E E Smith	0-5-0	12%	Out	0.23093	58	0.3403
55	East Chapel Hill	1-3-0	5%	Out	0.29206	55	0.3265
56	Ben L. Smith	1-5-0	1%	Out	0.27072	57	0.3298

48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Westover3417West Johnston17Westover 86% · at Westover

9Seventy-First4724Lee County12Seventy-First 98% · at Seventy-First

13Triton2520West Brunswick21Triton 61% · at Triton

12Swansboro3021White Oak19Swansboro 79% · at Swansboro

15Felton Grove2418Gray's Creek21Felton Grove 59% · at Felton Grove

10Middle Creek5223Western Harnett10Middle Creek 99% · at Middle Creek

14South Johnston3019Eastern Guilford19South Johnston 77% · at South Johnston

11Harnett Central4722Northern12Harnett Central 98% · at Harnett Central

Second Round

1Junius H Rose4216Westover14Junius H Rose 96% · at Junius H Rose

8Franklinton189Seventy-First31Seventy-First 81% · at Franklinton

4Jacksonville4313Triton13Jacksonville 97% · at Jacksonville

5Union Pines3812Swansboro16Union Pines 92% · at Union Pines

2Scotland4315Felton Grove13Scotland 97% · at Scotland

7Northern Nash2110Middle Creek25Middle Creek 61% · at Northern Nash

3Southern Alamance4014South Johnston15Southern Alamance 95% · at Southern Alamance

6Williams3011Harnett Central19Williams 78% · at Williams

Third Round

1Junius H Rose259Seventy-First21Junius H Rose 62% · at Junius H Rose

4Jacksonville295Union Pines19Jacksonville 77% · at Jacksonville

2Scotland2110Middle Creek24Middle Creek 58% · at Scotland

3Southern Alamance266Williams20Southern Alamance 65% · at Southern Alamance

Fourth Round

1Junius H Rose234Jacksonville22Junius H Rose 55% · at Junius H Rose

3Southern Alamance1910Middle Creek29Middle Creek 77% · at Southern Alamance

Regional Final

1Junius H Rose2310Middle Creek22Junius H Rose 53% · at Junius H Rose

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16South Caldwell1717Statesville34Statesville 87% · at South Caldwell

9Glenn2824Reynolds19Glenn 73% · at Glenn

13Watauga3120Piedmont18Watauga 81% · at Watauga

12Mount Tabor4121Harding University14Mount Tabor 95% · at Mount Tabor

15Ragsdale2218Northern Guilford23Northern Guilford 52% · at Ragsdale

10Freedom2623Saint Stephens20Freedom 65% · at Freedom

14Olympic2719Central Cabarrus20Olympic 70% · at Olympic

11Charlotte Catholic4022Southeast Guilford15Charlotte Catholic 94% · at Charlotte Catholic

Second Round

1Roberson4417Statesville13Roberson 97% · at Roberson

8Sun Valley319Glenn18Sun Valley 82% · at Sun Valley

4Asheville2813Watauga20Asheville 72% · at Asheville

5Alexander Central2012Mount Tabor27Mount Tabor 68% · at Alexander Central

2Asheboro3518Northern Guilford17Asheboro 89% · at Asheboro

7Ashbrook4110Freedom14Ashbrook 95% · at Ashbrook

3Kings Mountain4314Olympic14Kings Mountain 97% · at Kings Mountain

6Dudley2311Charlotte Catholic22Dudley 53% · at Dudley

Third Round

1Roberson358Sun Valley17Roberson 89% · at Roberson

4Asheville2212Mount Tabor22Asheville 52% · at Asheville

2Asheboro217Ashbrook24Ashbrook 59% · at Asheboro

3Kings Mountain356Dudley17Kings Mountain 89% · at Kings Mountain

Fourth Round

1Roberson374Asheville16Roberson 91% · at Roberson

3Kings Mountain317Ashbrook19Kings Mountain 80% · at Kings Mountain

Regional Final

1Roberson233Kings Mountain22Roberson 53% · at Roberson

State Championship

Junius H Rose21Roberson24Roberson 56% · neutral site

Every 6A team's projection — 58 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Junius H Rose	9.0-1.0	100%	2.3	15.0%
Roberson	8.7-1.3	100%	1.9	20.0%
Asheboro	9.4-0.6	100%	1.8	6.7%
Scotland	8.9-1.1	100%	3.7	15.0%
Southern Alamance	8.6-1.4	100%	3.8	3.3%
Jacksonville	6.5-2.5	100%	5.5	10.0%
Union Pines	8.7-1.3	100%	6.0	0.8%
Williams	6.0-1.9	100%	5.8	0.0%
Northern Nash	7.3-2.7	100%	5.6	2.5%
Kings Mountain	7.9-2.1	100%	3.5	18.3%
Asheville	7.2-2.8	100%	4.0	0.0%
Franklinton	9.0-1.0	100%	7.2	0.0%
Seventy-First	8.7-1.3	100%	9.2	1.7%
Middle Creek	7.3-2.7	100%	9.7	4.2%
Harnett Central	8.7-2.3	100%	10.4	0.0%
Alexander Central	8.0-2.0	100%	6.3	0.8%
Swansboro	7.3-2.7	100%	11.1	0.0%
Dudley	6.0-4.0	100%	6.2	0.0%
Triton	7.7-2.3	100%	11.6	0.0%
Ashbrook	5.6-4.4	100%	8.2	0.8%
Sun Valley	5.1-4.9	100%	9.0	0.8%
Glenn	6.4-3.6	100%	10.3	0.0%
South Johnston	5.8-5.2	100%	14.5	0.0%
Freedom	6.7-3.3	100%	11.3	0.0%
Charlotte Catholic	5.3-4.7	100%	10.9	0.0%
Mount Tabor	4.5-5.5	100%	11.4	0.0%
Felton Grove	5.1-3.9	100%	14.7	0.0%
Statesville	3.7-6.3	100%	18.6	0.0%
Piedmont	3.7-6.3	100%	19.3	0.0%
White Oak	2.2-6.8	100%	20.1	0.0%
Olympic	5.2-4.8	99%	13.9	0.0%
Westover	4.8-5.2	99%	17.4	0.0%
Watauga	4.7-5.3	98%	13.2	0.0%
Ragsdale	4.5-5.5	98%	16.5	0.0%
Eastern Guilford	2.8-6.2	98%	19.3	0.0%
Northern Guilford	3.4-6.7	97%	18.3	0.0%
West Johnston	4.2-5.8	96%	18.5	0.0%
South Caldwell	3.9-6.2	95%	17.2	0.0%
Gray's Creek	5.0-5.0	92%	18.9	0.0%
Southeast Guilford	3.2-6.8	85%	20.6	0.0%
Central Cabarrus	3.5-6.5	83%	17.6	0.0%
West Brunswick	2.6-7.4	82%	19.2	0.0%
Reynolds	2.1-7.9	81%	20.4	0.0%
Harding University	3.6-6.4	76%	19.1	0.0%
Saint Stephens	3.1-6.9	72%	19.3	0.0%
Northern	3.8-6.2	71%	20.8	0.0%
Lee County	1.9-8.1	66%	21.3	0.0%
Western Harnett	3.9-6.1	64%	20.9	0.0%
South View	3.2-6.8	57%	20.8	0.0%
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	3.5-6.5	52%	20.7	0.0%
Terry Sanford	2.6-7.4	48%	20.7	0.0%
Western Guilford	2.6-7.4	40%	22.3	0.0%
Vance County	0.9-9.1	33%	22.0	0.0%
E E Smith	1.8-8.2	12%	22.7	0.0%
East Chapel Hill	1.9-7.1	5%	22.8	0.0%
Ben L. Smith	1.1-8.9	1%	24.0	0.0%
Southern Lee	0.2-9.8	0%	—	0.0%
North Iredell	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%

5A

Projected champion: Hickory · wins the title in 13% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
44	South Brunswick	2-3-0	94%	In	0.37422	49	0.4512
45	West Carteret	2-3-0	93%	In	0.48004	42	0.4572
46	East Rowan	2-3-0	86%	In	0.49440	40	0.4422
On the bubble
47	North Lincoln	1-5-0	77%	Bubble	0.45117	43	0.4285
48	Concord	1-4-0	72%	Bubble	0.44453	45	0.4254
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Richlands	1-5-0	42%	Bubble	0.35581	51	0.3933
50	Dixon	2-3-0	37%	Bubble	0.32198	53	0.3874
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51	Forestview	0-6-0	12%	Out	0.36106	50	0.3747
52	Atkins	1-4-0	1%	Out	0.38640	48	0.3564
53	North Forsyth Magnet	1-4-0	1%	Out	0.33060	52	0.3451

48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Southern Nash3617J. F. Webb17Southern Nash 90% · at Southern Nash

9Eastern Alamance4324Person13Eastern Alamance 97% · at Eastern Alamance

13Western Alamance3320West Carteret18Western Alamance 84% · at Western Alamance

12South Granville2721South Brunswick20South Granville 68% · at South Granville

15Montgomery Central2818Currituck County19Montgomery Central 73% · at Montgomery Central

10Rocky Mount4423Southern Wayne13Rocky Mount 97% · at Rocky Mount

14Rockingham County2919Orange19Rockingham County 74% · at Rockingham County

11Havelock3722Charles B Aycock16Havelock 92% · at Havelock

Second Round

1Northside4516Southern Nash13Northside 97% · at Northside

8Saint Pauls229Eastern Alamance23Eastern Alamance 55% · at Saint Pauls

4Fike4213Western Alamance14Fike 96% · at Fike

5Croatan4312South Granville14Croatan 97% · at Croatan

2Southeast Alamance4015Montgomery Central15Southeast Alamance 94% · at Southeast Alamance

7Seaforth1810Rocky Mount32Rocky Mount 83% · at Seaforth

3Hunt4114Rockingham County14Hunt 95% · at Hunt

6Northeast Guilford2611Havelock20Northeast Guilford 66% · at Northeast Guilford

Third Round

1Northside349Eastern Alamance17Northside 88% · at Northside

4Fike295Croatan19Fike 76% · at Fike

2Southeast Alamance2710Rocky Mount20Southeast Alamance 68% · at Southeast Alamance

3Hunt246Northeast Guilford21Hunt 57% · at Hunt

Fourth Round

1Northside254Fike21Northside 61% · at Northside

2Southeast Alamance233Hunt22Southeast Alamance 52% · at Southeast Alamance

Regional Final

1Northside312Southeast Alamance18Northside 82% · at Northside

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16West Henderson2117Erwin26Erwin 64% · at West Henderson

9Monroe4724Concord12Monroe 98% · at Monroe

13Smoky Mountain2820Huss19Smoky Mountain 73% · at Smoky Mountain

12North Davidson4221North Henderson14North Davidson 96% · at North Davidson

15Parkwood3018Carson19Parkwood 78% · at Parkwood

10Enka3723North Lincoln16Enka 92% · at Enka

14Northwest Cabarrus3219North Buncombe18Northwest Cabarrus 84% · at Northwest Cabarrus

11Forest Hills4222East Rowan14Forest Hills 96% · at Forest Hills

Second Round

1South Point4317Erwin14South Point 97% · at South Point

8Oak Grove329Monroe18Oak Grove 82% · at Oak Grove

4West Rowan2813Smoky Mountain20West Rowan 73% · at West Rowan

5Franklin2712North Davidson20Franklin 68% · at Franklin

2Hickory4315Parkwood13Hickory 97% · at Hickory

7Crest3910Enka15Crest 94% · at Crest

3Jay M Robinson4214Northwest Cabarrus14Jay M Robinson 96% · at Jay M Robinson

6East Lincoln3711Forest Hills16East Lincoln 92% · at East Lincoln

Third Round

1South Point228Oak Grove22South Point 50% · at South Point

4West Rowan215Franklin24Franklin 58% · at West Rowan

2Hickory277Crest20Hickory 67% · at Hickory

3Jay M Robinson256East Lincoln21Jay M Robinson 62% · at Jay M Robinson

Fourth Round

1South Point325Franklin18South Point 84% · at South Point

2Hickory263Jay M Robinson20Hickory 66% · at Hickory

Regional Final

1South Point222Hickory22Hickory 52% · at South Point

State Championship

Northside20Hickory26Hickory 66% · neutral site

Every 5A team's projection — 57 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
South Point	9.2-0.8	100%	2.4	10.0%
Northside	9.6-0.4	100%	1.9	26.7%
Hickory	8.6-1.4	100%	3.6	13.3%
Southeast Alamance	10.1-0.9	100%	2.9	4.2%
Jay M Robinson	9.5-0.5	100%	4.6	1.7%
West Rowan	8.0-2.0	100%	4.8	2.5%
Hunt	8.0-2.0	100%	4.4	2.5%
Franklin	8.7-1.3	100%	5.9	0.0%
Fike	8.8-1.2	100%	4.2	17.5%
Croatan	9.2-0.8	100%	4.2	0.0%
East Lincoln	8.8-1.2	100%	6.5	1.7%
Northeast Guilford	8.2-1.8	100%	5.1	0.8%
Crest	7.0-3.0	100%	7.4	1.7%
Oak Grove	8.6-1.4	100%	7.3	16.7%
Monroe	7.4-2.6	100%	8.0	0.0%
Enka	7.9-2.1	100%	10.3	0.0%
Seaforth	8.3-1.7	100%	8.0	0.0%
Forest Hills	7.8-2.2	100%	11.5	0.0%
Saint Pauls	8.5-1.5	100%	8.5	0.0%
North Davidson	7.5-2.5	100%	12.3	0.0%
Smoky Mountain	8.0-2.0	100%	12.5	0.0%
Eastern Alamance	6.6-3.4	100%	9.7	0.8%
Rocky Mount	6.5-3.5	100%	9.7	0.0%
Northwest Cabarrus	6.7-3.3	100%	13.4	0.0%
Parkwood	5.9-4.1	100%	14.4	0.0%
West Henderson	5.7-4.3	100%	14.7	0.0%
Havelock	4.6-5.4	100%	11.3	0.0%
South Granville	6.7-3.4	100%	11.8	0.0%
Erwin	5.1-4.9	100%	16.1	0.0%
Western Alamance	6.4-4.6	100%	13.2	0.0%
Carson	5.3-4.7	100%	17.2	0.0%
Rockingham County	4.9-5.1	100%	15.4	0.0%
Southern Nash	4.3-5.7	100%	15.7	0.0%
J. F. Webb	4.9-5.1	100%	16.7	0.0%
Currituck County	4.7-5.3	100%	16.9	0.0%
North Buncombe	5.0-5.0	100%	19.9	0.0%
Orange	5.0-5.0	100%	17.8	0.0%
Huss	4.1-5.9	100%	20.8	0.0%
Charles B Aycock	2.8-7.2	99%	20.7	0.0%
Montgomery Central	4.7-5.3	98%	17.3	0.0%
Southern Wayne	3.5-6.5	98%	21.1	0.0%
North Henderson	2.2-7.8	95%	22.0	0.0%
Person	2.7-8.3	95%	22.0	0.0%
South Brunswick	5.0-5.0	94%	19.9	0.0%
West Carteret	3.2-6.8	93%	19.4	0.0%
East Rowan	3.6-6.4	86%	21.5	0.0%
North Lincoln	2.6-7.4	77%	22.0	0.0%
Concord	2.6-7.4	72%	21.9	0.0%
Richlands	2.0-8.0	42%	22.4	0.0%
Dixon	2.7-7.3	37%	22.9	0.0%
Forestview	1.1-8.9	12%	22.7	0.0%
Atkins	1.6-8.4	1%	23.0	0.0%
North Forsyth Magnet	1.5-8.5	1%	24.0	0.0%
North Gaston	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%
Douglas Byrd	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Southern Guilford	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Cedar Ridge	0.5-7.5	0%	—	0.0%

4A

Projected champion: Tuscola · wins the title in 32% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
43	Lexington	1-4-0	92%	In	0.38680	46	0.4168
44	Foard	1-4-0	91%	In	0.44253	37	0.4034
45	Central Davidson	2-4-0	85%	In	0.39350	44	0.4017
On the bubble
46	Salisbury	0-5-0	77%	Bubble	0.39960	43	0.3837
47	East Henderson	1-5-0	68%	Bubble	0.41883	41	0.3819
48	Red Springs	1-4-0	55%	Bubble	0.36200	47	0.3619
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	North Johnston	1-5-0	44%	Bubble	0.33402	51	0.3565
50	Lincoln Charter	0-5-0	36%	Bubble	0.33140	52	0.3533
51	Carver	1-5-0	24%	Bubble	0.27255	57	0.3328
52	Ashe County	1-4-0	20%	Bubble	0.34393	49	0.3548
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53	Graham	0-1-0	14%	Out	0.46400	34	0.3474
54	North Lenoir	0-6-0	7%	Out	0.27533	56	0.2979
55	Brevard	0-5-0	5%	Out	0.27547	55	0.3258

48 of 57 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Nash Central2217North Pitt23North Pitt 53% · at Nash Central

9Roanoke Rapids4224Red Springs14Roanoke Rapids 96% · at Roanoke Rapids

13Morehead2220Southwest22Morehead 50% · at Morehead

12Fairmont2121Lexington25Lexington 62% · at Fairmont

15Randleman2918Washington19Randleman 74% · at Randleman

10Anson2923Central Davidson19Anson 75% · at Anson

14Ledford3119Cummings18Ledford 80% · at Ledford

11Bunn4522Jordan-Matthews13Bunn 97% · at Bunn

Second Round

1East Duplin3917North Pitt15East Duplin 94% · at East Duplin

8Southwestern Randolph299Roanoke Rapids19Southwestern Randolph 75% · at Southwestern Randolph

4West Craven4613Morehead12West Craven 98% · at West Craven

5Eastern Wayne4121Lexington15Eastern Wayne 95% · at Eastern Wayne

2T Wingate Andrews3915Randleman15T Wingate Andrews 94% · at T Wingate Andrews

7SouthWest Edgecombe2710Anson20SouthWest Edgecombe 70% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

3Clinton2714Ledford20Clinton 68% · at Clinton

6Reidsville4411Bunn13Reidsville 97% · at Reidsville

Third Round

1East Duplin348Southwestern Randolph17East Duplin 86% · at East Duplin

4West Craven275Eastern Wayne20West Craven 69% · at West Craven

2T Wingate Andrews307SouthWest Edgecombe19T Wingate Andrews 78% · at T Wingate Andrews

3Clinton166Reidsville37Reidsville 92% · at Clinton

Fourth Round

1East Duplin194West Craven29West Craven 74% · at East Duplin

2T Wingate Andrews216Reidsville24Reidsville 57% · at T Wingate Andrews

Regional Final

4West Craven236Reidsville22West Craven 52% · at West Craven

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Maiden2917Bunker Hill19Maiden 74% · at Maiden

9Wilkes Central4424East Henderson13Wilkes Central 97% · at Wilkes Central

13Bandys3920East Gaston15Bandys 93% · at Bandys

12West Stokes4121Forbush14West Stokes 96% · at West Stokes

15East Burke2318West Stanly22East Burke 54% · at East Burke

10Lake Norman Charter3223Salisbury18Lake Norman Charter 82% · at Lake Norman Charter

14North Surry2119Newton-Conover24Newton-Conover 59% · at North Surry

11Pisgah3522Foard17Pisgah 88% · at Pisgah

Second Round

1Tuscola3716Maiden16Tuscola 92% · at Tuscola

8Stuart W Cramer339Wilkes Central18Stuart W Cramer 85% · at Stuart W Cramer

4R-S Central2413Bandys21R-S Central 59% · at R-S Central

5Mount Pleasant3012West Stokes19Mount Pleasant 77% · at Mount Pleasant

2Hibriten4415East Burke13Hibriten 97% · at Hibriten

7South Rowan3310Lake Norman Charter18South Rowan 84% · at South Rowan

3West Iredell4119Newton-Conover15West Iredell 95% · at West Iredell

6Burns3411Pisgah17Burns 88% · at Burns

Third Round

1Tuscola308Stuart W Cramer19Tuscola 78% · at Tuscola

4R-S Central215Mount Pleasant23Mount Pleasant 55% · at R-S Central

2Hibriten377South Rowan16Hibriten 92% · at Hibriten

3West Iredell246Burns21West Iredell 59% · at West Iredell

Fourth Round

1Tuscola355Mount Pleasant17Tuscola 89% · at Tuscola

2Hibriten233West Iredell22Hibriten 55% · at Hibriten

Regional Final

1Tuscola252Hibriten21Tuscola 62% · at Tuscola

State Championship

Tuscola26West Craven20Tuscola 65% · neutral site

Every 4A team's projection — 57 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Tuscola	9.6-0.4	100%	1.2	32.5%
Hibriten	9.8-0.2	100%	2.2	10.8%
East Duplin	8.5-1.5	100%	1.8	1.7%
T Wingate Andrews	8.7-1.3	100%	2.6	10.8%
West Iredell	8.1-1.9	100%	4.8	5.8%
Clinton	6.7-3.3	100%	3.9	0.0%
R-S Central	7.8-2.1	100%	5.6	0.0%
Mount Pleasant	6.6-3.4	100%	5.8	0.0%
Burns	6.9-3.1	100%	6.2	4.2%
West Craven	7.4-2.6	100%	5.2	14.2%
Eastern Wayne	7.8-1.1	100%	5.4	8.3%
South Rowan	6.7-3.3	100%	8.1	0.0%
Reidsville	6.8-3.2	100%	6.7	10.0%
SouthWest Edgecombe	6.2-2.8	100%	7.3	0.0%
Stuart W Cramer	7.7-2.4	100%	8.2	0.8%
Southwestern Randolph	7.7-2.3	100%	7.7	0.0%
Wilkes Central	7.5-2.5	100%	9.9	0.0%
Lake Norman Charter	6.1-3.9	100%	10.9	0.0%
Pisgah	5.5-4.5	100%	11.6	0.0%
West Stokes	5.7-4.3	100%	11.5	0.8%
Roanoke Rapids	6.1-3.9	100%	9.8	0.0%
Bandys	5.2-4.8	100%	12.3	0.0%
North Surry	6.0-4.0	100%	12.6	0.0%
Anson	5.5-4.5	100%	11.7	0.0%
Fairmont	4.8-5.2	100%	12.2	0.0%
East Burke	5.2-4.8	100%	14.5	0.0%
Morehead	5.3-4.7	100%	12.2	0.0%
Ledford	4.5-5.5	100%	12.9	0.0%
Maiden	4.3-5.7	100%	16.0	0.0%
Randleman	3.8-6.2	100%	13.5	0.0%
Bunker Hill	5.0-5.0	100%	16.0	0.0%
West Stanly	2.8-7.2	100%	17.6	0.0%
East Gaston	4.8-5.2	100%	18.8	0.0%
Forbush	4.3-5.7	100%	20.2	0.0%
North Pitt	3.6-6.4	100%	18.2	0.0%
Bunn	5.6-4.4	99%	12.1	0.0%
Nash Central	2.8-7.2	99%	16.8	0.0%
Cummings	2.4-8.6	98%	19.2	0.0%
Southwest	3.3-6.7	98%	19.5	0.0%
Jordan-Matthews	3.6-6.4	98%	20.7	0.0%
Newton-Conover	3.5-6.5	97%	17.9	0.0%
Washington	2.4-7.6	94%	18.0	0.0%
Lexington	2.9-7.1	92%	19.4	0.0%
Foard	2.0-8.0	91%	21.6	0.0%
Central Davidson	3.2-6.8	85%	20.2	0.0%
Salisbury	0.7-9.3	77%	22.5	0.0%
East Henderson	1.8-8.2	68%	22.5	0.0%
Red Springs	2.1-7.9	55%	23.2	0.0%
North Johnston	2.0-8.0	44%	22.6	0.0%
Lincoln Charter	1.1-8.9	36%	22.6	0.0%
Carver	2.2-7.8	24%	23.4	0.0%
Ashe County	1.1-8.8	20%	23.1	0.0%
Graham	0.2-6.8	14%	21.2	0.0%
North Lenoir	0.6-9.4	7%	22.9	0.0%
Brevard	0.5-9.5	5%	23.5	0.0%
Carrboro	1.6-8.4	2%	24.0	0.0%
First Flight	0.0-9.0	0%	—	0.0%

3A

Projected champion: Shelby · wins the title in 32% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

	School	Record	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
41	North Moore	0-6-0	100%	In	0.36800	41	0.3753
42	Wheatmore	1-4-0	99%	In	0.37056	40	0.4013
43	Polk County	1-5-0	95%	In	0.32978	45	0.3716
On the bubble
44	Trinity	1-4-0	72%	Bubble	0.33340	43	0.3360
45	Bartlett Yancey	1-4-0	69%	Bubble	0.29673	49	0.3355
46	Bessemer City	0-6-0	62%	Bubble	0.27150	51	0.3199
47	McMichael	1-4-0	58%	Bubble	0.33133	44	0.3406
48	Patton	1-5-0	58%	Bubble	0.30283	48	0.3245
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Heide Trask	1-4-0	48%	Bubble	0.25920	52	0.3250
50	Madison	1-5-0	43%	Bubble	0.30678	47	0.3285
51	Goldsboro	0-6-0	42%	Bubble	0.28644	50	0.3136
52	Spring Creek		39%	Bubble	—	—	0.2824
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
53	Draughn	0-6-0	12%	Out	0.31756	46	0.3138
54	Beddingfield	0-5-0	0%	Out	0.20778	53	0.2669
55	West Bladen	0-5-0	0%	Out	0.17773	55	0.2633

48 of 56 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Greene Central3317Wake Preparatory Academy17Greene Central 86% · at Greene Central

9Wallace-Rose Hill5224Bartlett Yancey10Wallace-Rose Hill 99% · at Wallace-Rose Hill

13Kinston4820South Lenoir12Kinston 98% · at Kinston

12Northwood2521Ayden-Grifton21Northwood 61% · at Northwood

15Louisburg Magnet1918Pender31Pender 79% · at Louisburg Magnet

10South Columbus4923McMichael11South Columbus 99% · at South Columbus

14Pasquotank County2219Farmville Central22Pasquotank County 50% · at Pasquotank County

11Princeton5222North Moore10Princeton 99% · at Princeton

Second Round

1Midway2716Greene Central20Midway 68% · at Midway

8Providence Grove199Wallace-Rose Hill30Wallace-Rose Hill 78% · at Providence Grove

4Martin County2413Kinston21Martin County 57% · at Martin County

5James Kenan4412Northwood13James Kenan 97% · at James Kenan

2Whiteville2918Pender19Whiteville 77% · at Whiteville

7Hertford County3310South Columbus17Hertford County 86% · at Hertford County

3Northeastern4214Pasquotank County14Northeastern 96% · at Northeastern

6Eastern Randolph2511Princeton21Eastern Randolph 61% · at Eastern Randolph

Third Round

1Midway229Wallace-Rose Hill23Wallace-Rose Hill 52% · at Midway

4Martin County205James Kenan28James Kenan 72% · at Martin County

2Whiteville227Hertford County23Hertford County 53% · at Whiteville

3Northeastern256Eastern Randolph21Northeastern 60% · at Northeastern

Fourth Round

5James Kenan309Wallace-Rose Hill19James Kenan 78% · at James Kenan

3Northeastern287Hertford County20Northeastern 73% · at Northeastern

Regional Final

3Northeastern215James Kenan24James Kenan 57% · at Northeastern

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16West Lincoln2417East Rutherford21West Lincoln 58% · at West Lincoln

9Union Academy4424Bessemer City13Union Academy 97% · at Union Academy

13Owen2720Wheatmore20Owen 69% · at Owen

12West Davidson3621Polk County16West Davidson 91% · at West Davidson

15East Surry3618Pine Lake Preparatory16East Surry 91% · at East Surry

10Mountain Heritage4823Patton11Mountain Heritage 99% · at Mountain Heritage

14North Wilkes3619East Davidson16North Wilkes 90% · at North Wilkes

11West Wilkes4722Trinity12West Wilkes 98% · at West Wilkes

Second Round

1North Stanly4016West Lincoln15North Stanly 94% · at North Stanly

8Chase289Union Academy20Chase 71% · at Chase

4Walkertown4213Owen14Walkertown 96% · at Walkertown

5Mount Airy3812West Davidson16Mount Airy 92% · at Mount Airy

2Hendersonville3815East Surry16Hendersonville 92% · at Hendersonville

7Lincolnton3710Mountain Heritage16Lincolnton 92% · at Lincolnton

3Shelby4914North Wilkes11Shelby 99% · at Shelby

6Thomasville3911West Wilkes15Thomasville 93% · at Thomasville

Third Round

1North Stanly348Chase17North Stanly 87% · at North Stanly

4Walkertown215Mount Airy25Mount Airy 61% · at Walkertown

2Hendersonville217Lincolnton24Lincolnton 60% · at Hendersonville

3Shelby376Thomasville16Shelby 91% · at Shelby

Fourth Round

1North Stanly225Mount Airy22North Stanly 50% · at North Stanly

3Shelby317Lincolnton18Shelby 81% · at Shelby

Regional Final

1North Stanly173Shelby35Shelby 89% · at North Stanly

State Championship

Shelby30James Kenan19Shelby 79% · neutral site

Every 3A team's projection — 56 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
North Stanly	8.4-0.6	100%	1.8	2.5%
Hendersonville	9.8-0.2	100%	2.1	3.3%
Midway	8.6-1.4	100%	2.3	4.2%
Shelby	8.4-1.6	100%	2.8	31.7%
Whiteville	9.4-0.6	100%	2.7	1.7%
Northeastern	8.0-2.0	100%	4.6	7.5%
Walkertown	8.9-1.1	100%	4.6	0.8%
Martin County	8.7-2.3	100%	4.8	5.0%
James Kenan	7.0-2.0	100%	5.2	16.7%
Eastern Randolph	6.8-3.2	100%	5.6	3.3%
Mount Airy	7.3-2.7	100%	5.5	4.2%
Thomasville	8.7-1.3	100%	5.9	7.5%
Lincolnton	7.8-2.2	100%	6.3	3.3%
Hertford County	6.7-3.3	100%	7.5	2.5%
Providence Grove	6.9-3.1	100%	8.8	0.0%
Wallace-Rose Hill	5.0-4.0	100%	9.2	0.8%
South Columbus	6.7-3.3	100%	9.9	0.0%
Princeton	6.9-4.1	100%	10.3	5.0%
Chase	7.3-2.7	100%	9.2	0.0%
Union Academy	6.6-3.4	100%	10.2	0.0%
Mountain Heritage	6.0-4.0	100%	10.3	0.0%
Northwood	5.0-5.0	100%	13.2	0.0%
Kinston	6.5-3.5	100%	13.4	0.0%
West Wilkes	5.8-4.2	100%	11.8	0.0%
Pasquotank County	4.8-5.2	100%	13.8	0.0%
West Davidson	6.0-4.0	100%	12.0	0.0%
Louisburg Magnet	6.5-3.5	100%	14.1	0.0%
Greene Central	6.1-3.9	100%	14.6	0.0%
Wake Preparatory Academy	5.8-4.2	100%	14.4	0.0%
Owen	5.4-4.6	100%	13.0	0.0%
North Wilkes	4.8-5.2	100%	13.9	0.0%
Pender	5.0-5.0	100%	16.8	0.0%
Farmville Central	4.0-6.0	100%	17.7	0.0%
East Surry	3.7-6.3	100%	16.0	0.0%
West Lincoln	4.4-5.6	100%	16.3	0.0%
East Rutherford	2.7-7.3	100%	17.0	0.0%
Pine Lake Preparatory	4.5-5.5	100%	17.1	0.0%
South Lenoir	4.8-6.2	100%	19.6	0.0%
East Davidson	3.2-6.8	100%	18.3	0.0%
Ayden-Grifton	2.6-7.4	100%	20.9	0.0%
North Moore	0.5-9.5	100%	21.8	0.0%
Wheatmore	2.9-7.1	99%	19.4	0.0%
Polk County	2.3-7.7	95%	21.0	0.0%
Trinity	1.3-8.7	72%	22.6	0.0%
Bartlett Yancey	2.1-7.9	69%	22.9	0.0%
Bessemer City	0.7-9.3	62%	23.0	0.0%
McMichael	1.6-8.4	58%	22.2	0.0%
Patton	1.1-8.9	58%	23.3	0.0%
Heide Trask	1.6-8.4	48%	22.6	0.0%
Madison	1.4-8.6	43%	22.2	0.0%
Goldsboro	0.5-9.5	42%	23.7	0.0%
Spring Creek	0.6-3.4	39%	23.2	0.0%
Draughn	0.0-10.0	12%	23.7	0.0%
Beddingfield	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
West Bladen	0.0-10.0	0%	—	0.0%
Surry Central	0.1-9.9	0%	—	0.0%

2A

Projected champion: Tarboro · wins the title in 38% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

All 46 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.

Projected bracket

46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-9

16Bertie2117Union25Union 63% · at Bertie

13Rosewood4320Lejeune13Rosewood 97% · at Rosewood

12East Carteret3621Pamlico County16East Carteret 91% · at East Carteret

15Perquimans County2518West Columbus21Perquimans County 61% · at Perquimans County

10Hobbton4123American Leadership Academy - Johnston14Hobbton 95% · at Hobbton

14Camden County3019Northampton County19Camden County 79% · at Camden County

11Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic4422Triangle Math and Science Academy13Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic 97% · at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic

Second Round

1Warren County5117Union10Warren County 99% · at Warren County

8Gates County299North Duplin Jr Sr19Gates County 75% · at Gates County

4Manteo2413Rosewood21Manteo 57% · at Manteo

5East Bladen3712East Carteret16East Bladen 91% · at East Bladen

2Tarboro5115Perquimans County10Tarboro 99% · at Tarboro

7Southside1810Hobbton33Hobbton 85% · at Southside

3Holmes4714Camden County12Holmes 98% · at Holmes

6Lakewood3811Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic15Lakewood 93% · at Lakewood

Third Round

1Warren County458Gates County13Warren County 97% · at Warren County

4Manteo215East Bladen25East Bladen 62% · at Manteo

2Tarboro4710Hobbton12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro

3Holmes446Lakewood13Holmes 97% · at Holmes

Fourth Round

1Warren County435East Bladen13Warren County 97% · at Warren County

2Tarboro303Holmes19Tarboro 79% · at Tarboro

Regional Final

1Warren County212Tarboro24Tarboro 58% · at Warren County

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-9

16Langtree Charter Academy2217Albemarle22Albemarle 51% · at Langtree Charter Academy

13South Stokes2220Bradford Preparatory22South Stokes 50% · at South Stokes

12Cherryville4421Elkin13Cherryville 97% · at Cherryville

15Swain County3218Avery County18Swain County 83% · at Swain County

10Cherokee4723Highland Tech12Cherokee 98% · at Cherokee

14Bishop McGuinness2019South Stanly27South Stanly 68% · at Bishop McGuinness

11Mountain Island Charter4522Hayesville13Mountain Island Charter 97% · at Mountain Island Charter

Second Round

1Starmount4817Albemarle12Starmount 98% · at Starmount

8Mitchell209East Wilkes28East Wilkes 71% · at Mitchell

4Christ the King4713South Stokes12Christ the King 98% · at Christ the King

5Community School of Davidson3812Cherryville15Community School of Davidson 93% · at Community School of Davidson

2Corvian Community4415Swain County13Corvian Community 97% · at Corvian Community

7Murphy3710Cherokee16Murphy 91% · at Murphy

3North Rowan4219South Stanly14North Rowan 96% · at North Rowan

6Alleghany3011Mountain Island Charter19Alleghany 77% · at Alleghany

Third Round

1Starmount289East Wilkes19Starmount 73% · at Starmount

4Christ the King215Community School of Davidson23Community School of Davidson 56% · at Christ the King

2Corvian Community317Murphy19Corvian Community 80% · at Corvian Community

3North Rowan266Alleghany20North Rowan 66% · at North Rowan

Fourth Round

1Starmount315Community School of Davidson19Starmount 80% · at Starmount

2Corvian Community303North Rowan19Corvian Community 78% · at Corvian Community

Regional Final

1Starmount252Corvian Community21Starmount 61% · at Starmount

State Championship

Starmount20Tarboro28Tarboro 71% · neutral site

Every 2A team's projection — 46 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Starmount	9.2-0.8	100%	1.7	1.7%
Warren County	10.0-0.0	100%	1.9	40.0%
Tarboro	8.7-1.3	100%	1.8	37.5%
Corvian Community	8.3-1.7	100%	2.6	5.8%
Holmes	7.8-1.2	100%	2.6	10.0%
North Rowan	8.1-1.9	100%	3.9	0.8%
Christ the King	8.1-1.9	100%	4.2	1.7%
Community School of Davidson	7.1-2.9	100%	5.2	2.5%
Alleghany	7.0-3.0	100%	5.4	0.0%
Manteo	7.1-2.9	100%	4.7	0.0%
East Bladen	7.1-2.9	100%	5.6	0.0%
Murphy	7.1-2.9	100%	8.0	0.0%
Mitchell	7.4-2.6	100%	8.1	0.0%
East Wilkes	5.5-4.5	100%	9.2	0.0%
Cherokee	5.9-4.1	100%	9.4	0.0%
Mountain Island Charter	7.4-2.6	100%	9.4	0.0%
Lakewood	5.6-4.4	100%	7.1	0.0%
Southside	6.1-3.9	100%	7.8	0.0%
Gates County	5.1-4.9	100%	8.2	0.0%
North Duplin Jr Sr	5.6-4.4	100%	9.0	0.0%
Cherryville	5.1-4.9	100%	12.5	0.0%
Hobbton	3.7-6.3	100%	12.7	0.0%
Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technic	4.9-5.1	100%	13.2	0.0%
South Stokes	5.2-4.8	100%	14.5	0.0%
East Carteret	4.2-5.8	100%	13.3	0.0%
Rosewood	4.3-6.7	100%	13.4	0.0%
Bishop McGuinness	4.8-5.2	100%	14.5	0.0%
Camden County	3.7-6.3	100%	13.9	0.0%
Swain County	3.3-6.7	100%	15.3	0.0%
Langtree Charter Academy	4.0-6.0	100%	15.5	0.0%
Perquimans County	3.4-6.6	100%	14.5	0.0%
Albemarle	3.6-6.4	100%	16.2	0.0%
Bertie	1.9-8.1	100%	15.9	0.0%
Union	4.4-5.6	100%	15.8	0.0%
West Columbus	2.6-6.4	100%	16.3	0.0%
Avery County	3.6-6.4	100%	17.3	0.0%
South Stanly	2.8-7.2	100%	17.6	0.0%
Northampton County	2.5-7.5	100%	18.0	0.0%
Lejeune	3.0-6.0	100%	18.6	0.0%
Pamlico County	2.8-7.2	100%	18.9	0.0%
Triangle Math and Science Academy	2.0-6.0	100%	20.5	0.0%
Bradford Preparatory	1.9-8.1	100%	20.5	0.0%
Elkin	2.0-8.0	100%	21.0	0.0%
Hayesville	1.7-7.3	100%	21.2	0.0%
American Leadership Academy - Johnston	1.2-7.8	100%	22.4	0.0%
Highland Tech	0.4-9.6	100%	22.8	0.0%

1A

Projected champion: Northside · wins the title in 53% of simulated seasons

RPI bubble

All 25 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.

Projected bracket

25 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-3

8Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy279KIPP Pride20Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 69% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy

4Columbia3913Jones15Columbia 94% · at Columbia

5North East Carolina Prep4112Weldon STEM14North East Carolina Prep 95% · at North East Carolina Prep

7Sallie B Howard4410Mattamuskeet13Sallie B Howard 97% · at Sallie B Howard

6Washington County3811Bear Grass Charter16Washington County 92% · at Washington County

Second Round

1Northside478Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy12Northside 98% · at Northside

4Columbia185North East Carolina Prep33North East Carolina Prep 85% · at Columbia

2Hobgood Charter237Sallie B Howard21Hobgood Charter 55% · at Hobgood Charter

3North Edgecombe226Washington County22North Edgecombe 52% · at North Edgecombe

Third Round

1Northside475North East Carolina Prep12Northside 98% · at Northside

2Hobgood Charter213North Edgecombe24North Edgecombe 57% · at Hobgood Charter

Regional Final

1Northside463North Edgecombe12Northside 98% · at Northside

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy209College Prep and Leadership Academy27College Prep and Leadership Academy 69% · at Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy

5Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad4312North Stokes14Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 96% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad

7Rosman3510Andrews17Rosman 89% · at Rosman

6East Columbus Junior-Senior2111Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy25Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 61% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior

Second Round

1Chatham Central359College Prep and Leadership Academy17Chatham Central 89% · at Chatham Central

4South Davidson Middle and255Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad21South Davidson Middle and 62% · at South Davidson Middle and

2Wilson Preparatory Academy437Rosman14Wilson Preparatory Academy 97% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

3Robbinsville4411Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy13Robbinsville 97% · at Robbinsville

Third Round

1Chatham Central224South Davidson Middle and22South Davidson Middle and 51% · at Chatham Central

2Wilson Preparatory Academy223Robbinsville22Robbinsville 51% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

Regional Final

3Robbinsville434South Davidson Middle and14Robbinsville 96% · at Robbinsville

State Championship

Northside22Robbinsville22Northside 52% · neutral site

Every 1A team's projection — 25 teams

School	Proj. record	Playoffs	Avg seed	Title
Northside	9.9-0.1	100%	1.0	53.3%
Chatham Central	9.0-1.0	100%	1.5	0.0%
Wilson Preparatory Academy	5.8-4.2	100%	1.8	28.3%
Hobgood Charter	7.5-2.5	100%	2.2	0.0%
Robbinsville	5.0-5.0	100%	3.4	18.3%
South Davidson Middle and	6.4-3.6	100%	4.6	0.0%
Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad	5.2-4.8	100%	5.1	0.0%
North Edgecombe	4.9-5.1	100%	4.5	0.0%
East Columbus Junior-Senior	4.0-6.0	100%	5.5	0.0%
Columbia	5.0-5.0	100%	5.2	0.0%
North East Carolina Prep	4.8-5.2	100%	5.3	0.0%
Washington County	3.2-6.8	100%	6.1	0.0%
Rosman	4.5-5.5	100%	6.8	0.0%
Sallie B Howard	4.4-5.6	100%	6.9	0.0%
Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy	3.5-6.5	100%	6.9	0.0%
KIPP Pride	2.7-7.3	100%	7.8	0.0%
Mattamuskeet	1.4-7.6	100%	8.6	0.0%
Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy	1.1-8.9	100%	8.7	0.0%
Bear Grass Charter	1.3-8.7	100%	10.0	0.0%
College Prep and Leadership Academy	1.1-7.9	100%	10.3	0.0%
Andrews	0.6-8.4	100%	10.6	0.0%
Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy	1.0-8.0	100%	10.8	0.0%
Weldon STEM	0.6-8.4	100%	11.1	0.0%
Jones	0.1-10.9	100%	12.1	0.0%
North Stokes	0.4-9.6	100%	12.1	0.0%