NC girls flag football · 2026 · week 6 · as of October 13
Title races and the RPI bubble
Which remaining games decide a conference title, and which teams are fighting for the last playoff berths. Built from the games in our database as of Tuesday, October 13.
Talking points
- West Charlotte at Butler (Wed 10/14) is the biggest decider on the board this week (Meck Power Six). Butler is 96% to share the title, 100% with a win and 79% with a loss; West Charlotte is 15% to share the title, 75% with a win and 2% with a loss. We favor Butler, 82%.
- 3 conference title deciders in Week 6 (Tue 10/13 to Wed 10/14); the full list is below, biggest swings first.
- Green Hope, No. 2 in our power ratings, has a decider on Mon 10/19 (Green Hope at Apex, Quad City Seven): >99% to share the title now, 100% with a win over Apex and 99% with a loss.
- Week 7 (Mon 10/19 to Tue 10/20) has 5 deciders. Biggest: R J Reynolds at Reagan (Central Piedmont, power 64 and 59); Cardinal Gibbons at Holly Springs (Triangle Six, power 79 and 91); Jordan-Matthews at Northwood (Four Rivers, power 48 and 69); Hoke County at Pinecrest (Mid South, power 71 and 65).
- Clinched outright: Ashley (Carolina Coast), Cox Mill (Greater Metro GMAC), Mount Pleasant (Rocky River); clinched at least a share: Southern Nash (Big East); 1 more conference has a team above 99% to at least share it (not proven, so not called clinched). This week a win clinches at least a share for Butler (West Charlotte at Butler, Wed 10/14).
- No bubble in 7A (46 teams for 48 spots): everyone is in on these numbers, so what is left to play for is seeding. The bubble is 8A, 1A-6A.
- 8A: 24 of 32 teams get in. 20 are above 99% and 4 below 1%; the 5 closest calls: East Mecklenburg 62%, Athens Drive 50%, Ardrey Kell 47%, Enloe 24%, Northwest Guilford 24%.
- 1A-6A: 48 of 110 teams get in. 25 are above 99% and 30 below 1%; the 22 closest calls: Maiden 90%, Smoky Mountain 83%, Northeast Guilford 83%, South Johnston 76%, Piedmont 74%, Hertford County 69%.
- Best bubble-versus-bubble game: Vance Charter at Louisburg Magnet in 1A-6A (Mon 10/19). Louisburg Magnet goes from 2% to 19% to make the field with a win; Vance Charter goes from 5% to 86%.
- Need help even if they win out: Bertie (1A-6A), Southeast Guilford (1A-6A), Ascend Leadership Academy: Lee County (1A-6A).
- Already safe (above 99% to make the field): 8A 20 of 32, 1A-6A 25 of 110.
How to read this
Share of the title means finishing level with or ahead of everyone else in the conference on conference winning percentage (a tie counts as half a win). We do not call tiebreakers, so we never say who wins one. “Alive” means a path to a share exists. “Clinched” and “eliminated” appear only where we counted every outcome of every remaining conference game and it is proven. Percentages are whole numbers, and “<1%” and “>99%” mean not proven impossible or certain.
Win chances for girls flag football come from the weekly flag report's power model (the 18-point spread, capped at 97%). The bubble tables give, for each team, the chance to make the playoff field and the chance if it wins out or loses a given number of its remaining games. Team strength is our own power ratings first.
Conference title deciders
9 deciders across 8 conferences, grouped by week. A game is a decider when both teams are alive with at least a 5% chance at a share of the title, and either side's chance moves 25 points or more between a win and a loss (or the two sides' moves add to 30 or more), or a win clinches a share, or a loss eliminates a team. Within a week, games are in date order and then by how much they move the race.
Week 6Tue 10/13 to Wed 10/14 · 3 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 10/13 | Northwood 0-0 / 11-1 at Jordan-Matthews 0-0 / 5-4 Our power ratings: Northwood 69 (No. 34); Jordan-Matthews 48 (No. 114) | Four Rivers | Northwood 89% | Northwood 98% now → >99% with a win, 87% with a loss Jordan-Matthews 16% now → 83% with a win, 7% with a loss |
| Tue 10/13 | West Johnston 4-2 / 8-4 at Southern Lee 3-0 / 7-2 (two games) Our power ratings: West Johnston 49 (No. 108); Southern Lee 58 (No. 83) | Carolina Pines † | Southern Lee 75% | West Johnston 6% now → 25% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Southern Lee 93% now → 99% with a win, 73% with a loss |
| Wed 10/14 | West Charlotte 5-1 / 7-1 at Butler 6-0 / 11-1 Our power ratings: West Charlotte 70 (No. 28); Butler 83 (No. 13) | Meck Power Six | Butler 82% | West Charlotte 15% now → 75% with a win, 2% with a loss Butler 96% now → 100% with a win, 79% with a lossa win clinches at least a share |
Week 7Mon 10/19 to Tue 10/20 · 5 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 10/19 | Green Hope 9-0 / 13-1 at Apex 7-2 / 10-2 (two games) Our power ratings: Green Hope 94 (No. 2); Apex 84 (No. 12) | Quad City Seven | Green Hope 72% | Green Hope >99% now → 100% with a win, 99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Apex 7% now → 25% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Tue 10/20 | R J Reynolds 3-0 / 7-3 at Reagan 2-1 / 6-4 Our power ratings: R J Reynolds 64 (No. 53); Reagan 59 (No. 80) | Central Piedmont | R J Reynolds 61% | R J Reynolds 64% now → 100% with a win, 9% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Reagan 36% now → 91% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Tue 10/20 | Cardinal Gibbons 5-1 / 9-1 at Holly Springs 7-0 / 10-0 Our power ratings: Cardinal Gibbons 79 (No. 17); Holly Springs 91 (No. 3) | Triangle Six | Holly Springs 79% | Cardinal Gibbons 14% now → 67% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it Holly Springs 86% now → 100% with a win, 33% with a lossa win clinches the title outright |
| Tue 10/20 | Jordan-Matthews 0-0 / 5-4 at Northwood 0-0 / 11-1 Our power ratings: Jordan-Matthews 48 (No. 114); Northwood 69 (No. 34) | Four Rivers | Northwood 91% | Jordan-Matthews 16% now → 83% with a win, 9% with a loss Northwood 98% now → 99% with a win, 85% with a loss |
| Tue 10/20 | Hoke County 1-0 / 8-3 at Pinecrest 1-0 / 4-5 (two games) Our power ratings: Hoke County 71 (No. 24); Pinecrest 65 (No. 50) | Mid South | Hoke County 64% | Hoke County 82% now → 96% with a win, 57% with a loss Pinecrest 18% now → 43% with a win, 4% with a loss |
Week 8Tue 10/27 · 1 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 10/27 | Hopewell 3-1 / 6-2 at Hough 2-0 / 6-1 Our power ratings: Hopewell 68 (No. 38); Hough 75 (No. 19) | Greater Charlotte † | Hough 70% | Hopewell 31% now → 87% with a win, 8% with a loss Hough 77% now → 99% with a win, 24% with a loss |
† This conference's schedule is not complete in our data (a team has fewer conference games on the books than a full round robin), so its records and chances rest on the games we hold.
25 conferences have too few marked conference games in our data to judge a title race and are left out: Big Seven, Central Tar Heel, Coastal, Coastal Plains, Diamond Nine, Eastern Carolina, Greater Neuse River, Metro, Mid Carolina, Mid State, Mountain, Mountain Eight, North Piedmont, Northern Six, Northwestern, PAC Seven, Piedmont Triad, Quad County, Southern Carolina, Southwestern, TAAC Six, Three Rivers, Tobacco Road, Western Foothills, Yadkin Valley.
The RPI bubble
NCHSAA fills each field by final RPI alone, with no automatic bids. We play out every remaining regular-season game 20,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, turn each finish into RPI with the association's formula, and count how often a team is in the field (24 in 8A, 48 in 7A, 48 in 1A-6A). Teams listed are those with a real chance either way, plus the nearest teams on each side.
8A24 of 32 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 24th team's RPI is 0.4147 (next team 0.3990). In our simulation 20 teams are above 99% to make it, 4 are below 1%, and 8 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 or more losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Level | 4-9 | 60 (No. 79) | 0.4554 (22) | 4 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Mallard Creek | 3-6 | 69 (No. 33) | 0.4646 (20) | 4 | 99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 94% | Safe even with a slip |
| Myers Park | 3-6 | 58 (No. 84) | 0.4433 (23) | 5 | 93% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 83% | Safe even with a slip |
| East Mecklenburg ‡ | 3-5 | 54 (No. 95) | 0.4582 (21) | 5 | 62% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 61% | Win and in |
| Athens Drive | 2-8 | 57 (No. 90) | 0.3979 (26) | 4 | 50% | >99% | >99% | 79% | 4% | Win and in |
| Ardrey Kell | 1-8 | 57 (No. 89) | 0.4147 (24) | 5 | 47% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 46% | Win and in |
| Enloe | 3-8 | 51 (No. 102) | 0.3990 (25) | 4 | 24% | >99% | >99% | 97% | 13% | Win and in |
| Northwest Guilford | 2-5 | 37 (No. 153) | 0.3832 (27) | 3 | 24% | >99% | 77% | 1% | <1% | Win and in |
| South Mecklenburg | 1-10 | 48 (No. 115) | 0.3294 (28) | 5 | 1% | 98% | 45% | 1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| West Forsyth | 0-6 | 38 (No. 150) | 0.3160 (30) | 4 | <1% | >99% | 83% | 3% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 13, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
7A46 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
7A has 46 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
1A-6A48 of 110 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.4747 (next team 0.4687). In our simulation 25 teams are above 99% to make it, 30 are below 1%, and 55 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 or more losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | 2-1 | 63 (No. 63) | — | 3 | 99% | >99% | 99% | <1% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Olympic | 6-4 | 57 (No. 88) | 0.5456 (27) | 4 | 99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 97% | Safe even with a slip |
| Northside (Pinetown) | 4-0 | 48 (No. 112) | 0.5419 (28) | 3 | 98% | >99% | >99% | 90% | 14% | Safe even with a slip |
| West Johnston | 8-4 | 49 (No. 108) | 0.5022 (40) | 2 | 98% | >99% | >99% | 96% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Ragsdale ‡ | 5-5 | 61 (No. 73) | 0.5024 (39) | 5 | 95% | >99% | 99% | 83% | 17% | Safe even with a slip |
| Jay M Robinson ‡ | 7-5 | 47 (No. 118) | 0.5252 (31) | 3 | 94% | >99% | >99% | 75% | 19% | Safe even with a slip |
| Reidsville | 3-3 | 50 (No. 104) | 0.5626 (22) | 3 | 94% | >99% | >99% | 34% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Sun Valley | 3-2 | 62 (No. 68) | 0.5225 (32) | 4 | 94% | >99% | >99% | 73% | 2% | Safe even with a slip |
| Asheboro ‡ | 6-5 | 51 (No. 101) | 0.4996 (41) | 4 | 93% | >99% | >99% | 95% | 59% | Safe even with a slip |
| Franklinton | 6-6 | 64 (No. 57) | 0.5181 (36) | 3 | 92% | >99% | >99% | 53% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Phillip O. Berry † | 5-6 | 60 (No. 76) | 0.5205 (34) | 5 | 91% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 74% | Safe even with a slip |
| Maiden | 2-3 | 43 (No. 139) | 0.5168 (37) | 0 | 90% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Smoky Mountain | 6-5 | 45 (No. 129) | 0.5205 (35) | 4 | 83% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 11% | Safe even with a slip |
| Northeast Guilford ‡ | 1-3 | 55 (No. 91) | 0.4759 (47) | 5 | 83% | >99% | 96% | 64% | 4% | Safe even with a slip |
| South Johnston | 6-5 | 54 (No. 93) | 0.4597 (51) | 2 | 76% | 93% | 4% | <1% | — | Win out, likely in |
| Piedmont | 3-4 | 55 (No. 92) | 0.4834 (46) | 4 | 74% | >99% | >99% | 94% | 1% | Win and in |
| Hertford County | 5-5 | 53 (No. 97) | 0.5513 (26) | 5 | 69% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 67% | Win and in |
| Salisbury | 5-4 | 46 (No. 124) | 0.4747 (48) | 5 | 66% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 13% | Win and in |
| Jordan-Matthews | 5-4 | 48 (No. 114) | 0.4887 (45) | 8 | 64% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 63% | Win and in |
| Northside (Jacksonville) ‡ | 3-4 | 60 (No. 78) | 0.4964 (43) | 5 | 53% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 37% | Win and in |
| Vance Charter | 1-1 | 41 (No. 143) | 0.4532 (52) | 4 | 50% | >99% | 98% | 2% | <1% | Win and in |
| Felton Grove ‡ | 5-10 | 60 (No. 75) | 0.4988 (42) | 0 | 44% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Bertie | 4-4 | 41 (No. 145) | 0.4962 (44) | 2 | 37% | 53% | 1% | <1% | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| North Rowan | 4-3 | 37 (No. 151) | 0.5656 (21) | 6 | 32% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 32% | Win and in |
| Hunt | 3-4 | 46 (No. 121) | 0.4633 (50) | 4 | 26% | >99% | >99% | 17% | <1% | Win and in |
| Dudley | 1-4-1 | 51 (No. 99) | 0.4116 (68) | 5 | 24% | >99% | 98% | 1% | <1% | Win and in |
| West Brunswick | 5-8 | 65 (No. 49) | 0.4508 (53) | 3 | 21% | 99% | 31% | <1% | <1% | Win and in |
| Charlotte Catholic | 1-2 | 49 (No. 111) | 0.3969 (74) | 3 | 19% | >99% | >99% | <1% | <1% | Win and in |
| West Craven | 2-2 | 28 (No. 173) | 0.4283 (60) | 3 | 14% | >99% | 94% | 14% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Eastern Alamance | 1-1 | 42 (No. 140) | 0.4167 (67) | 4 | 14% | >99% | >99% | >99% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 2 of 4) |
| Concord | 3-6 | 45 (No. 128) | 0.4224 (63) | 7 | 13% | >99% | >99% | 51% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 6 of 7) |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 1-3 | 50 (No. 105) | 0.3626 (83) | 4 | 12% | >99% | 14% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| High Point Central ‡ | 1-4 | 45 (No. 131) | 0.4331 (57) | 5 | 11% | >99% | 90% | 50% | 4% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Central Cabarrus | 5-8 | 48 (No. 113) | 0.4687 (49) | 4 | 10% | >99% | 56% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Louisburg Magnet | 4-4 | 37 (No. 152) | 0.4294 (59) | 10 | 10% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 7% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 8 of 10) |
| Harding University | 3-6 | 49 (No. 106) | 0.4464 (55) | 5 | 9% | >99% | >99% | 71% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 4 of 5) |
| Atkins | 1-4 | 44 (No. 133) | 0.3855 (78) | 6 | 8% | >99% | 86% | 4% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Northern Guilford | 3-4 | 40 (No. 146) | 0.4437 (56) | 6 | 6% | >99% | >99% | 80% | 1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 5 of 6) |
| Morehead | 1-2 | 31 (No. 166) | 0.4048 (72) | 4 | 5% | >99% | >99% | 68% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 3 of 4) |
| Western Alamance | 0-1 | 30 (No. 168) | — | 2 | 5% | >99% | 22% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| North Henderson | 6-6 | 44 (No. 137) | 0.4319 (58) | 5 | 5% | >99% | >99% | 38% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 4 of 5) |
| Harnett Central | 2-6 | 44 (No. 134) | 0.4074 (70) | 5 | 4% | >99% | 40% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| McMichael | 2-7 | 37 (No. 154) | 0.4493 (54) | 4 | 4% | 99% | 22% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Southeast Guilford ‡ | 2-6 | 41 (No. 144) | 0.3992 (73) | 3 | 3% | 42% | 6% | <1% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Ascend Leadership Academy: Lee County | 1-3 | 36 (No. 157) | 0.3710 (80) | 3 | 2% | 53% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Monroe | 3-4 | 44 (No. 132) | 0.4217 (65) | 3 | 1% | 89% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 13, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
The simulation does not model forfeits, opt-outs, cancellations or games not yet on a schedule. Games dated after October 27 come after seeding and are left out of the RPI field. Flag football is a first-season sport, so a 60% pick is a lean, not a lock.
Chances are good to a few points, not exact: 20,000 simulated finishes, and rarer scenarios re-run with the team's own results fixed.
Data check: records match NCHSAA for 179 of 184 teams (table dated October 13); 54 past-dated games are still unscored, 54 of them with an NCHSAA team.