2026 NCHSAA Girls Flag Football Playoff Projections
Week 6. The 472 regular-season games left before
the October 27 reporting deadline were played out 2,000 times, each won with the
chance our ratings give it, and the field drawn by RPI every time. A team's playoff chance
is how often it made the field; its projected RPI is its average final RPI. The bracket is
the most likely path: the teams most likely to make the field, seeded on projected RPI,
every game going to the team our ratings favor, with the score they predict. Field sizes
and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 24 teams in 8A, 48 in 7A and 48 in 1A-6A, split
East and West by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final, the final
at a neutral site. RPI here is ours, computed with NCHSAA's formula; seeding on October 28
uses the association's own figures.
8A
Projected champion: Palisades
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
20
Green Level
4-9
99%
In
0.45750
21
0.4650
21
Mallard Creek
3-5
98%
In
0.46345
20
0.4798
22
Myers Park
2-6
86%
In
0.43160
23
0.4458
On the bubble
23
East Mecklenburg
3-5
59%
Bubble
0.45550
22
0.4250
24
Athens Drive
2-7
52%
Bubble
0.39303
26
0.4149
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Ardrey Kell
1-7
48%
Bubble
0.40591
24
0.4130
26
Enloe
3-7
36%
Bubble
0.39419
25
0.4086
27
Northwest Guilford
2-5
20%
Bubble
0.38252
27
0.3916
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
28
South Mecklenburg
1-9
2%
Out
0.32357
29
0.3599
29
West Forsyth
0-6
0%
Out
0.31531
30
0.3379
30
Jordan
0-9
0%
Out
0.33285
28
0.3383
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Millbrook229Panther Creek14Millbrook 69% · at Millbrook
5Willow Spring3112Athens Drive0Willow Spring 96% · at Willow Spring
7Hoggard1410Laney8Hoggard 66% · at Hoggard
6Broughton1811Corinth Holders14Broughton 59% · at Broughton
Second Round
1Green Hope318Millbrook4Green Hope 94% · at Green Hope
4Apex195Willow Spring16Apex 56% · at Apex
2Wakefield267Hoggard6Wakefield 89% · at Wakefield
3Leesville Road346Broughton10Leesville Road 91% · at Leesville Road
Third Round
1Green Hope244Apex14Green Hope 73% · at Green Hope
2Wakefield243Leesville Road22Wakefield 54% · at Wakefield
Regional Final
1Green Hope242Wakefield16Green Hope 70% · at Green Hope
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Mallard Creek149Apex Friendship8Mallard Creek 65% · at Mallard Creek
5West Charlotte2412East Mecklenburg7West Charlotte 86% · at West Charlotte
7Chambers2110Green Level8Chambers 79% · at Chambers
6Pinecrest2111Myers Park12Pinecrest 72% · at Pinecrest
Second Round
1Palisades318Mallard Creek0Palisades 96% · at Palisades
4Hoke County155West Charlotte12Hoke County 58% · at Hoke County
2Providence217Chambers2Providence 87% · at Providence
3Hough276Pinecrest16Hough 74% · at Hough
Third Round
1Palisades324Hoke County4Palisades 94% · at Palisades
2Providence233Hough7Providence 83% · at Providence
Regional Final
1Palisades212Providence11Palisades 74% · at Palisades
State Championship
Green Hope18Palisades20Palisades 55% · neutral site
7A
Projected champion: Holly Springs
RPI bubble
All 46 7A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 7A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Overhills1617Knightdale21Knightdale 62% · at Overhills
13New Bern1620Sanderson11New Bern 63% · at New Bern
12North Brunswick2121East Wake6North Brunswick 82% · at North Brunswick
15New Hanover1618Clayton1New Hanover 81% · at New Hanover
10Southeast Raleigh2723Smithfield-Selma0Southeast Raleigh 94% · at Southeast Raleigh
14Garner2119Cleveland2Garner 87% · at Garner
11Heritage3422Hillside3Heritage 96% · at Heritage
Second Round
1Ashley3717Knightdale0Ashley 97% · at Ashley
8Cary109Wake Forest6Cary 60% · at Cary
4South Garner2213New Bern9South Garner 78% · at South Garner
5Riverside1912North Brunswick9Riverside 74% · at Riverside
2Holly Springs3515New Hanover0Holly Springs 97% · at Holly Springs
7Fuquay-Varina1810Southeast Raleigh13Fuquay-Varina 61% · at Fuquay-Varina
3Cardinal Gibbons2214Garner2Cardinal Gibbons 88% · at Cardinal Gibbons
6Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi2211Heritage12Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi 73% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi
Third Round
1Ashley288Cary4Ashley 92% · at Ashley
4South Garner155Riverside10South Garner 62% · at South Garner
2Holly Springs337Fuquay-Varina3Holly Springs 95% · at Holly Springs
3Cardinal Gibbons216Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi12Cardinal Gibbons 72% · at Cardinal Gibbons
Fourth Round
1Ashley254South Garner8Ashley 85% · at Ashley
2Holly Springs253Cardinal Gibbons11Holly Springs 79% · at Holly Springs
Regional Final
1Ashley202Holly Springs23Holly Springs 56% · at Ashley
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Lake Norman617Independence14Independence 70% · at Lake Norman
13Rocky River2820West Mecklenburg2Rocky River 93% · at Rocky River
12Hickory Ridge2421Porter Ridge2Hickory Ridge 91% · at Hickory Ridge
15Reagan2418Page8Reagan 84% · at Reagan
10Davie County3923A L Brown0Davie County 97% · at Davie County
14Hopewell2019Marvin Ridge0Hopewell 88% · at Hopewell
11R J Reynolds3122North Mecklenburg10R J Reynolds 89% · at R J Reynolds
Second Round
1Cuthbertson3217Independence4Cuthbertson 94% · at Cuthbertson
8West Cabarrus119Southwest Guilford13Southwest Guilford 56% · at West Cabarrus
4Butler1913Rocky River7Butler 77% · at Butler
5Mooresville2212Hickory Ridge7Mooresville 83% · at Mooresville
2Cox Mill2415Reagan1Cox Mill 91% · at Cox Mill
7Weddington1310Davie County14Davie County 52% · at Weddington
3Grimsley1314Hopewell9Grimsley 59% · at Grimsley
6Ballantyne Ridge2811R J Reynolds6Ballantyne Ridge 90% · at Ballantyne Ridge
Third Round
1Cuthbertson329Southwest Guilford8Cuthbertson 91% · at Cuthbertson
4Butler215Mooresville13Butler 67% · at Butler
2Cox Mill1910Davie County8Cox Mill 75% · at Cox Mill
3Grimsley106Ballantyne Ridge24Ballantyne Ridge 81% · at Grimsley
Fourth Round
1Cuthbertson224Butler17Cuthbertson 62% · at Cuthbertson
2Cox Mill166Ballantyne Ridge19Ballantyne Ridge 59% · at Cox Mill
Regional Final
1Cuthbertson256Ballantyne Ridge21Cuthbertson 61% · at Cuthbertson
State Championship
Cuthbertson20Holly Springs24Holly Springs 62% · neutral site
1A-6A
Projected champion: Eastern Guilford
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
33
Asheboro
6-4
91%
In
0.50379
41
0.5166
34
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
5-5
90%
In
0.51915
34
0.5192
35
Smoky Mountain
6-5
86%
In
0.52050
33
0.5063
On the bubble
36
Williams
2-1
84%
Bubble
0.60306
18
0.5385
37
Hertford County
5-5
84%
Bubble
0.55169
26
0.5159
38
Northeast Guilford
1-3
79%
Bubble
0.47932
47
0.5183
39
Salisbury
5-4
77%
Bubble
0.48504
45
0.5071
40
Olympic
5-4
76%
Bubble
0.52150
32
0.5047
41
Piedmont
3-4
72%
Bubble
0.48315
46
0.5005
42
Northside
3-3
64%
Bubble
0.53784
29
0.5016
43
Jordan-Matthews
5-4
62%
Bubble
0.49305
44
0.4903
44
Bertie
4-4
57%
Bubble
0.49668
43
0.4834
45
South Johnston
4-5
49%
Bubble
0.42462
60
0.4811
46
Vance Charter
1-1
40%
Bubble
0.44794
53
0.4668
47
Felton Grove
5-10
39%
Bubble
0.50211
42
0.4782
48
Hunt
3-4
22%
Bubble
0.45504
50
0.4622
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Charlotte Catholic
1-2
18%
Bubble
0.38771
74
0.4415
50
Louisburg Magnet
4-4
16%
Bubble
0.43232
56
0.4545
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
51
Dudley
1-5-1
14%
Out
0.38478
76
0.4482
52
Concord
3-6
14%
Out
0.42704
58
0.4459
53
North Rowan
2-3
13%
Out
0.53160
30
0.4378
48 of 103 1A-6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Franklinton2217West Johnston6Franklinton 83% · at Franklinton
9Northside1724Hunt13Northside 61% · at Northside
13Union Pines2720Bertie0Union Pines 94% · at Union Pines
12Seaforth2321South Johnston16Seaforth 65% · at Seaforth
15Northern Nash1518Hertford County11Northern Nash 60% · at Northern Nash
10Wake Preparatory Academy2423Vance Charter3Wake Preparatory Academy 90% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
14Middle Creek2719Northside19Middle Creek 68% · at Middle Creek
11Rocky Mount2122Felton Grove16Rocky Mount 63% · at Rocky Mount
Second Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy2216Franklinton12Wilson Preparatory Academy 73% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
8Roxboro Community339Northside13Roxboro Community 88% · at Roxboro Community
4Vance County2413Union Pines8Vance County 84% · at Vance County
5Northwood2612Seaforth15Northwood 74% · at Northwood
2Southern Nash3115Northern Nash3Southern Nash 95% · at Southern Nash
7Southern Lee1810Wake Preparatory Academy15Southern Lee 60% · at Southern Lee
3Southeast Alamance2514Middle Creek17Southeast Alamance 70% · at Southeast Alamance
6Pamlico County2311Rocky Mount18Pamlico County 63% · at Pamlico County
Third Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy288Roxboro Community20Wilson Preparatory Academy 69% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
4Vance County265Northwood13Vance County 78% · at Vance County
2Southern Nash357Southern Lee10Southern Nash 93% · at Southern Nash
3Southeast Alamance246Pamlico County17Southeast Alamance 67% · at Southeast Alamance
Fourth Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy174Vance County24Vance County 67% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
2Southern Nash273Southeast Alamance17Southern Nash 74% · at Southern Nash
Regional Final
2Southern Nash244Vance County20Southern Nash 60% · at Southern Nash
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Ragsdale1217Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology11Ragsdale 50% · at Ragsdale
9Mount Pleasant2624Jordan-Matthews3Mount Pleasant 91% · at Mount Pleasant
13Sun Valley3120Salisbury13Sun Valley 86% · at Sun Valley
12Jay M Robinson821Smoky Mountain4Jay M Robinson 60% · at Jay M Robinson
15Williams2218Northeast Guilford12Williams 74% · at Williams
10Union Academy2723Piedmont16Union Academy 74% · at Union Academy
14Reidsville1219Asheboro11Reidsville 52% · at Reidsville
11Northwest Cabarrus1022Olympic12Olympic 54% · at Northwest Cabarrus
Second Round
1Eastern Guilford3116Ragsdale2Eastern Guilford 95% · at Eastern Guilford
8Carver199Mount Pleasant21Mount Pleasant 54% · at Carver
4West Henderson1613Sun Valley20Sun Valley 60% · at West Henderson
5Mount Tabor2112Jay M Robinson2Mount Tabor 88% · at Mount Tabor
2Brevard1915Williams20Williams 54% · at Brevard
7Watauga2110Union Academy20Watauga 54% · at Watauga
3Rockingham County2114Reidsville9Rockingham County 78% · at Rockingham County
6East Rowan1222Olympic13Olympic 51% · at East Rowan
Third Round
1Eastern Guilford299Mount Pleasant10Eastern Guilford 87% · at Eastern Guilford
5Mount Tabor2313Sun Valley19Mount Tabor 61% · at Mount Tabor
7Watauga2015Williams17Watauga 57% · at Watauga
3Rockingham County1722Olympic10Rockingham County 65% · at Rockingham County
Fourth Round
1Eastern Guilford325Mount Tabor9Eastern Guilford 91% · at Eastern Guilford
3Rockingham County157Watauga18Watauga 58% · at Rockingham County
Regional Final
1Eastern Guilford317Watauga7Eastern Guilford 91% · at Eastern Guilford
State Championship
Eastern Guilford25Southern Nash22Eastern Guilford 56% · neutral site