NC girls flag football · 2026 · week 8 · as of October 25
Title races and the RPI bubble
Which remaining games decide a conference title, and which teams are fighting for the last playoff berths. Built from the games in our database as of Sunday, October 25.
Talking points
- Pinecrest at Hoke County (Mon 10/26) is the biggest decider on the board this week (Mid South). Hoke County is 53% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss; Pinecrest is 47% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss. We favor Hoke County, 53%.
- 3 conference title deciders in Week 8 (Mon 10/26 to Tue 10/27); the full list is below, biggest swings first.
- Hough, No. 20 in our power ratings, has a decider on Tue 10/27 (Hough at Hopewell, Greater Charlotte): 68% to share the title now, 100% with a win over Hopewell and 7% with a loss.
- Clinched outright: Southern Nash (Big East), Wakefield (CAP), Ashley (Carolina Coast), Southern Lee (Carolina Pines), R J Reynolds (Central Piedmont), Northwood (Four Rivers), Cox Mill (Greater Metro GMAC), South Garner (Greater Neuse River), Butler (Meck Power Six), Southwest Guilford (Metro), Southeast Alamance (Mid Carolina), Brevard (Mountain Eight), Vance County (Northern Six), Green Hope (Quad City Seven), Mount Pleasant (Rocky River), Eastern Guilford (TAAC Six), Holly Springs (Triangle Six); clinched at least a share: Wake Preparatory Academy (Quad County). This week a win clinches at least a share for Hoke County (outright) (Pinecrest at Hoke County, Mon 10/26); Pinecrest (outright) (Pinecrest at Hoke County, Mon 10/26); Hough (outright) (Hough at Hopewell, Tue 10/27); Louisburg Magnet (Wake Preparatory Academy at Louisburg Magnet, Tue 10/27); Wake Preparatory Academy (outright) (Wake Preparatory Academy at Louisburg Magnet, Tue 10/27).
- Final week's de facto title games (Week 8): Pinecrest at Hoke County (Mid South, Mon 10/26); Wake Preparatory Academy at Louisburg Magnet (Quad County, Tue 10/27). The winner is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive. The decider list for that week has 3 games in all.
- No bubble in 7A (48 teams for 48 spots): everyone is in on these numbers, so what is left to play for is seeding. The bubble is 8A, 1A-6A.
- 8A: 24 of 32 teams get in. 21 are above 99% and 6 below 1%; the 3 closest calls: Myers Park 90%, East Mecklenburg 84%, Enloe 30%.
- 1A-6A: 48 of 115 teams get in. 36 are above 99% and 56 below 1%; the 15 closest calls: Northside (Jacksonville) 88%, North Forsyth Magnet 86%, South Johnston 82%, Ragsdale 76%, Reidsville 74%, Jordan-Matthews 74%.
- Best bubble-versus-bubble game: Ragsdale at Western Guilford in 1A-6A (Mon 10/26). Western Guilford goes from <1% to 24% to make the field with a win; Ragsdale goes from 27% to 90%.
- Can't get in by winning out (under 5% even with a sweep, in our simulations): Hunt (1A-6A); Need help even if they win out: Felton Grove (1A-6A), Western Guilford (1A-6A), West Forsyth (8A).
- Already safe (above 99% to make the field): 8A 21 of 32, 1A-6A 36 of 115.
How to read this
Share of the title means finishing level with or ahead of everyone else in the conference on conference winning percentage (a tie counts as half a win). We do not call tiebreakers, so we never say who wins one. “Alive” means a path to a share exists. “Clinched” and “eliminated” appear only where we counted every outcome of every remaining conference game and it is proven. Percentages are whole numbers, and “<1%” and “>99%” mean not proven impossible or certain.
Win chances for girls flag football come from the weekly flag report's power model (the 18-point spread, capped at 97%). The bubble tables give, for each team, the chance to make the playoff field and the chance if it wins out or loses a given number of its remaining games. Team strength is our own power ratings first.
Conference title deciders
3 deciders across 3 conferences, grouped by week. A game is a decider when both teams are alive with at least a 5% chance at a share of the title, and either side's chance moves 25 points or more between a win and a loss (or the two sides' moves add to 30 or more), or a win clinches a share, or a loss eliminates a team. Within a week, games are in date order and then by how much they move the race.
Week 8Mon 10/26 to Tue 10/27 · 3 deciders, 2 marked as de facto title games
A de facto title game in the last week is one where whoever wins is guaranteed at least a share of the title whenever both teams arrive still alive.
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 10/26 | Pinecrest 3-1 / 9-6 at Hoke County 4-1 / 13-4DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Pinecrest 69 (No. 29); Hoke County 70 (No. 26) | Mid South | Hoke County 53% | Pinecrest 47% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Hoke County 53% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Tue 10/27 | Hough 7-0 / 9-1 at Hopewell 7-1 / 9-2 Our power ratings: Hough 75 (No. 20); Hopewell 68 (No. 36) | Greater Charlotte | Hough 65% | Hough 68% now → 100% with a win, 7% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Hopewell 32% now → 93% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
| Tue 10/27 | Wake Preparatory Academy 6-1 / 7-2 at Louisburg Magnet 5-2 / 6-8DE FACTO TITLE GAME Our power ratings: Wake Preparatory Academy 57 (No. 82); Louisburg Magnet 38 (No. 151) | Quad County | Wake Preparatory Academy 86% | Wake Preparatory Academy >99% now → >99% with a win, >99% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Louisburg Magnet 14% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches at least a sharea loss eliminates it |
19 conferences have too few marked conference games in our data to judge a title race and are left out: Big Carolina, Big Seven, Central Tar Heel, Coastal, Coastal Plains, Diamond Nine, Eastern Carolina, Eastern Plains, Mid State, Mountain, North Piedmont, Northwestern, PAC Seven, Piedmont Triad, Southern Carolina, Three Rivers, Tobacco Road, Western Foothills, Yadkin Valley.
The RPI bubble
NCHSAA fills each field by final RPI alone, with no automatic bids. We play out every remaining regular-season game 20,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, turn each finish into RPI with the association's formula, and count how often a team is in the field (24 in 8A, 48 in 7A, 48 in 1A-6A). Teams listed are those with a real chance either way, plus the nearest teams on each side.
8A24 of 32 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 24th team's RPI is 0.4124 (next team 0.4069). In our simulation 21 teams are above 99% to make it, 6 are below 1%, and 5 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Level | 5-12 | 59 (No. 74) | 0.4598 (20) | 0 | >99% | — | — | — | Safe |
| Willow Spring | 14-3 | 83 (No. 12) | 0.6527 (5) | 0 | >99% | — | — | — | Safe |
| Mallard Creek | 3-8 | 66 (No. 45) | 0.4265 (22) | 2 | 96% | >99% | >99% | 5% | Safe even with a slip |
| Myers Park | 3-9 | 54 (No. 88) | 0.4206 (23) | 2 | 90% | >99% | 90% | <1% | Win and in |
| East Mecklenburg | 3-9 | 50 (No. 109) | 0.4124 (24) | 2 | 84% | >99% | >99% | 83% | Safe even with a slip |
| Enloe | 4-10 | 52 (No. 99) | 0.4069 (25) | 1 | 30% | 99% | 27% | — | Win and in |
| West Forsyth | 1-8 | 43 (No. 138) | 0.3532 (27) | 1 | 1% | 18% | <1% | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Jordan | 0-13 | 47 (No. 121) | 0.3401 (29) | 0 | <1% | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 25, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
7A48 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
7A has 48 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
1A-6A48 of 115 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.4911 (next team 0.4891). In our simulation 36 teams are above 99% to make it, 56 are below 1%, and 23 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maiden | 3-3 | 42 (No. 141) | 0.5000 (40) | 0 | >99% | — | — | — | — | Safe |
| Piedmont | 5-5 | 54 (No. 90) | 0.5243 (34) | 1 | >99% | >99% | 99% | — | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Smoky Mountain | 8-8 | 47 (No. 125) | 0.4974 (42) | 0 | 96% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Northwest Cabarrus | 7-7 | 53 (No. 95) | 0.5143 (38) | 1 | 93% | >99% | 77% | — | — | Win and in |
| Asheboro | 8-5 | 50 (No. 111) | 0.5170 (36) | 2 | 93% | >99% | >99% | 63% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Vance Charter | 3-2 | 48 (No. 119) | 0.5338 (30) | 2 | 90% | >99% | 30% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| Northside (Jacksonville) | 5-5 | 62 (No. 65) | 0.5385 (28) | 3 | 88% | >99% | >99% | 94% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 4-3 | 50 (No. 112) | 0.4935 (46) | 1 | 86% | >99% | <1% | — | — | Win and in |
| South Johnston | 8-5 | 53 (No. 94) | 0.4937 (45) | 2 | 82% | >99% | 92% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| Ragsdale † | 8-7 | 64 (No. 57) | 0.4911 (48) | 2 | 76% | >99% | 36% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| Reidsville † | 4-3 | 47 (No. 124) | 0.4972 (43) | 2 | 74% | >99% | 24% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| Jordan-Matthews | 8-7 | 46 (No. 129) | 0.4953 (44) | 2 | 74% | >99% | 81% | 2% | — | Win and in |
| Northeast Guilford | 5-5 | 51 (No. 104) | 0.4843 (52) | 2 | 64% | >99% | 56% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| High Point Central | 6-5 | 51 (No. 105) | 0.4977 (41) | 2 | 63% | >99% | >99% | 50% | — | Win and in |
| West Johnston | 8-6 | 48 (No. 118) | 0.4859 (50) | 2 | 56% | >99% | 86% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| Hertford County | 6-9 | 49 (No. 113) | 0.4933 (47) | 0 | 43% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Charlotte Catholic | 2-3 | 45 (No. 133) | 0.4674 (55) | 1 | 30% | >99% | <1% | — | — | Win and in |
| Felton Grove | 6-11 | 58 (No. 80) | 0.4833 (53) | 1 | 27% | 79% | <1% | — | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| North Rowan | 4-4 | 40 (No. 146) | 0.4803 (54) | 3 | 24% | >99% | >99% | 3% | <1% | Win and in |
| Bertie | 6-4 | 38 (No. 152) | 0.4891 (49) | 0 | 16% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Northern Guilford | 6-6 | 45 (No. 134) | 0.4659 (56) | 2 | 12% | >99% | 1% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Western Guilford | 5-7-1 | 51 (No. 103) | 0.4520 (61) | 2 | 5% | 40% | <1% | <1% | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Central Cabarrus | 7-9 | 53 (No. 93) | 0.4843 (51) | 0 | 4% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Parkwood | 4-7 | 47 (No. 122) | 0.4646 (58) | 2 | 2% | >99% | 1% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Hunt | 3-6 | 47 (No. 120) | 0.4560 (59) | 2 | 2% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — | Can't get there by winning out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 25, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
The simulation does not model forfeits, opt-outs, cancellations or games not yet on a schedule. Games dated after October 27 come after seeding and are left out of the RPI field. Flag football is a first-season sport, so a 60% pick is a lean, not a lock.
7 teams with almost no reported games and no computable RPI today (D H Conley, South Central, Ayden-Grifton, Farmville Central, North Pitt, Junius H Rose, ...) are held out of the simulated field.
Chances are good to a few points, not exact: 20,000 simulated finishes, and rarer scenarios re-run with the team's own results fixed.
Data check: records match NCHSAA for 186 of 190 teams (table dated October 25); 23 past-dated games are still unscored, 23 of them with an NCHSAA team.