2026 NCHSAA Girls Flag Football Playoff Projections
Week 8. The 121 regular-season games left before
the October 27 reporting deadline were played out 2,000 times, each won with the
chance our ratings give it, and the field drawn by RPI every time. A team's playoff chance
is how often it made the field; its projected RPI is its average final RPI. The bracket is
the most likely path: the teams most likely to make the field, seeded on projected RPI,
every game going to the team our ratings favor, with the score they predict. Field sizes
and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 24 teams in 8A, 48 in 7A and 48 in 1A-6A, split
East and West by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final, the final
at a neutral site. RPI here is ours, computed with NCHSAA's formula; seeding on October 28
uses the association's own figures.
8A
Projected champion: Palisades
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
21
Ardrey Kell
3-9
100%
In
0.44528
21
0.4436
22
Mallard Creek
3-8
97%
In
0.42647
22
0.4369
23
Myers Park
3-9
90%
In
0.42064
23
0.4242
On the bubble
24
East Mecklenburg
3-9
84%
Bubble
0.41242
24
0.4112
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Enloe
4-10
29%
Bubble
0.40695
25
0.4086
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
26
West Forsyth
1-8
1%
Out
0.35316
27
0.3595
27
Northwest Guilford
3-8
0%
Out
0.37635
26
0.3767
28
Athens Drive
2-11
0%
Out
0.35259
28
0.3637
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
8A bubble card, 1920×1080, for a broadcast or a post · Download the PNG
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Millbrook149Laney12Millbrook 57% · at Millbrook
5Leesville Road3512Green Level7Leesville Road 95% · at Leesville Road
7Hoggard2110Panther Creek7Hoggard 81% · at Hoggard
6Broughton1711Corinth Holders15Broughton 56% · at Broughton
Second Round
1Green Hope288Millbrook5Green Hope 91% · at Green Hope
4Apex195Leesville Road21Leesville Road 56% · at Apex
2Wakefield257Hoggard8Wakefield 85% · at Wakefield
3Willow Spring286Broughton8Willow Spring 88% · at Willow Spring
Third Round
1Green Hope255Leesville Road17Green Hope 69% · at Green Hope
2Wakefield233Willow Spring15Wakefield 70% · at Wakefield
Regional Final
1Green Hope212Wakefield18Green Hope 56% · at Green Hope
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Chambers209Ardrey Kell9Chambers 75% · at Chambers
5Hoke County2812East Mecklenburg7Hoke County 90% · at Hoke County
7Apex Friendship1210Mallard Creek11Apex Friendship 54% · at Apex Friendship
6Pinecrest2411Myers Park7Pinecrest 85% · at Pinecrest
Second Round
1Providence238Chambers2Providence 90% · at Providence
4West Charlotte145Hoke County13West Charlotte 52% · at West Charlotte
2Palisades337Apex Friendship2Palisades 96% · at Palisades
3Hough236Pinecrest16Hough 68% · at Hough
Third Round
1Providence224West Charlotte2Providence 88% · at Providence
2Palisades313Hough10Palisades 89% · at Palisades
Regional Final
1Providence142Palisades20Palisades 65% · at Providence
State Championship
Green Hope18Palisades21Palisades 58% · neutral site
7A
Projected champion: Ashley
RPI bubble
All 46 7A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 7A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Southeast Raleigh1417Cleveland8Southeast Raleigh 66% · at Southeast Raleigh
13New Hanover2020East Wake8New Hanover 77% · at New Hanover
12Wake Forest1821Clayton0Wake Forest 86% · at Wake Forest
15Knightdale2418Hillside6Knightdale 86% · at Knightdale
10New Bern3423Smithfield-Selma0New Bern 97% · at New Bern
14North Brunswick3119Overhills8North Brunswick 91% · at North Brunswick
11Cary1322Sanderson11Cary 53% · at Cary
Second Round
1Ashley3916Southeast Raleigh0Ashley 97% · at Ashley
8Fuquay-Varina109Garner14Garner 60% · at Fuquay-Varina
4South Garner2413New Hanover5South Garner 87% · at South Garner
5Southern School of Energy and Sustainability1912Wake Forest9Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 73% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
2Holly Springs3415Knightdale0Holly Springs 97% · at Holly Springs
7Heritage1910New Bern14Heritage 63% · at Heritage
3Cardinal Gibbons2214North Brunswick5Cardinal Gibbons 84% · at Cardinal Gibbons
6Riverside2111Cary5Riverside 83% · at Riverside
Third Round
1Ashley309Garner3Ashley 94% · at Ashley
4South Garner225Southern School of Energy and Sustainability12South Garner 74% · at South Garner
2Holly Springs317Heritage8Holly Springs 91% · at Holly Springs
3Cardinal Gibbons176Riverside9Cardinal Gibbons 69% · at Cardinal Gibbons
Fourth Round
1Ashley264South Garner13Ashley 77% · at Ashley
2Holly Springs233Cardinal Gibbons11Holly Springs 78% · at Holly Springs
Regional Final
1Ashley232Holly Springs21Ashley 57% · at Ashley
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Lake Norman1717Page13Lake Norman 60% · at Lake Norman
13Hickory Ridge2920North Mecklenburg5Hickory Ridge 92% · at Hickory Ridge
12Hopewell3121Porter Ridge0Hopewell 96% · at Hopewell
15Rocky River1518Independence9Rocky River 66% · at Rocky River
10Mooresville4023A L Brown0Mooresville 97% · at Mooresville
14Reagan2119West Mecklenburg8Reagan 79% · at Reagan
11R J Reynolds3022Marvin Ridge0R J Reynolds 95% · at R J Reynolds
Second Round
1Cuthbertson3616Lake Norman1Cuthbertson 97% · at Cuthbertson
8Ballantyne Ridge299Weddington6Ballantyne Ridge 92% · at Ballantyne Ridge
4West Cabarrus1013Hickory Ridge9West Cabarrus 55% · at West Cabarrus
5Grimsley1512Hopewell11Grimsley 60% · at Grimsley
2Cox Mill2415Rocky River6Cox Mill 86% · at Cox Mill
7Southwest Guilford1410Mooresville17Mooresville 59% · at Southwest Guilford
3Butler2414Reagan0Butler 91% · at Butler
6Davie County1711R J Reynolds10Davie County 67% · at Davie County
Third Round
1Cuthbertson218Ballantyne Ridge24Ballantyne Ridge 56% · at Cuthbertson
4West Cabarrus115Grimsley16Grimsley 60% · at West Cabarrus
2Cox Mill2310Mooresville12Cox Mill 75% · at Cox Mill
3Butler186Davie County8Butler 74% · at Butler
Fourth Round
5Grimsley108Ballantyne Ridge25Ballantyne Ridge 82% · at Grimsley
2Cox Mill173Butler13Cox Mill 60% · at Cox Mill
Regional Final
2Cox Mill188Ballantyne Ridge20Ballantyne Ridge 55% · at Cox Mill
State Championship
Ashley22Ballantyne Ridge21Ashley 54% · neutral site
1A-6A
Projected champion: Eastern Guilford
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
40
Vance Charter
3-2
90%
In
0.53377
30
0.5375
41
Northside
5-5
87%
In
0.53850
28
0.5164
42
North Forsyth Magnet
4-3
86%
In
0.49294
47
0.4977
On the bubble
43
South Johnston
8-5
82%
Bubble
0.49369
45
0.5057
44
Ragsdale
8-7
78%
Bubble
0.49172
48
0.5037
45
Jordan-Matthews
8-7
75%
Bubble
0.49526
44
0.4979
46
Reidsville
4-3
74%
Bubble
0.49973
41
0.5159
47
Northeast Guilford
5-5
63%
Bubble
0.48448
51
0.4996
48
High Point Central
6-5
63%
Bubble
0.49839
42
0.4996
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
West Johnston
8-6
56%
Bubble
0.48590
50
0.4915
50
Hertford County
6-9
43%
Bubble
0.49335
46
0.4900
51
Felton Grove
6-11
29%
Bubble
0.48329
53
0.4825
52
Charlotte Catholic
2-3
29%
Bubble
0.46737
55
0.4658
53
North Rowan
4-4
24%
Bubble
0.48032
54
0.4796
54
Bertie
6-4
16%
Bubble
0.48905
49
0.4863
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55
Northern Guilford
6-6
11%
Out
0.46612
56
0.4694
56
Western Guilford
5-7-1
6%
Out
0.45324
61
0.4573
57
Central Cabarrus
7-9
4%
Out
0.48430
52
0.4849
48 of 110 1A-6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
1A-6A bubble card, 1920×1080, for a broadcast or a post · Download the PNG
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Northern Nash1817Vance Charter4Northern Nash 80% · at Northern Nash
9Pamlico County2724Jordan-Matthews2Pamlico County 92% · at Pamlico County
13Williams2120Reidsville12Williams 72% · at Williams
12Seaforth1521Franklinton18Franklinton 58% · at Seaforth
15Union Pines1818Middle Creek19Middle Creek 51% · at Union Pines
10Southern Lee1123Northeast Guilford7Southern Lee 60% · at Southern Lee
14Wake Preparatory Academy1319Northside17Northside 61% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
11Rocky Mount3122South Johnston13Rocky Mount 86% · at Rocky Mount
Second Round
1Eastern Guilford3216Northern Nash1Eastern Guilford 96% · at Eastern Guilford
8Northside129Pamlico County27Pamlico County 83% · at Northside
4Northwood2513Williams13Northwood 77% · at Northwood
5Wilson Preparatory Academy1821Franklinton14Wilson Preparatory Academy 60% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
2Southern Nash3618Middle Creek14Southern Nash 90% · at Southern Nash
7Vance County2710Southern Lee1Vance County 93% · at Vance County
3Roxboro Community3319Northside17Roxboro Community 84% · at Roxboro Community
6Southeast Alamance1911Rocky Mount20Rocky Mount 53% · at Southeast Alamance
Third Round
1Eastern Guilford339Pamlico County11Eastern Guilford 90% · at Eastern Guilford
4Northwood215Wilson Preparatory Academy20Northwood 51% · at Northwood
2Southern Nash247Vance County18Southern Nash 66% · at Southern Nash
3Roxboro Community2911Rocky Mount21Roxboro Community 70% · at Roxboro Community
Fourth Round
1Eastern Guilford364Northwood10Eastern Guilford 93% · at Eastern Guilford
2Southern Nash333Roxboro Community26Southern Nash 68% · at Southern Nash
Regional Final
1Eastern Guilford302Southern Nash23Eastern Guilford 68% · at Eastern Guilford
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Asheboro717Olympic13Olympic 65% · at Asheboro
9Carver2424Smoky Mountain3Carver 89% · at Carver
13Sun Valley2120Ragsdale19Sun Valley 53% · at Sun Valley
12Jay M Robinson1621Maiden4Jay M Robinson 77% · at Jay M Robinson
15Piedmont1118Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology22Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology 75% · at Piedmont
10Union Academy2623North Forsyth Magnet10Union Academy 84% · at Union Academy
14Salisbury1119Northwest Cabarrus15Northwest Cabarrus 60% · at Salisbury
11Bunker Hill1522High Point Central14Bunker Hill 51% · at Bunker Hill
Second Round
1Saint Stephens2217Olympic11Saint Stephens 73% · at Saint Stephens
8Mount Pleasant219Carver15Mount Pleasant 63% · at Mount Pleasant
4Rockingham County1713Sun Valley23Sun Valley 64% · at Rockingham County
5East Rowan1512Jay M Robinson12East Rowan 57% · at East Rowan
2Brevard1218Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology19Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology 66% · at Brevard
7West Henderson1410Union Academy22Union Academy 69% · at West Henderson
3Mount Tabor2019Northwest Cabarrus7Mount Tabor 78% · at Mount Tabor
6Watauga2411Bunker Hill5Watauga 87% · at Watauga
Third Round
1Saint Stephens188Mount Pleasant21Mount Pleasant 57% · at Saint Stephens
5East Rowan1713Sun Valley27Sun Valley 73% · at East Rowan
10Union Academy2018Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology19Union Academy 51% · at Union Academy
3Mount Tabor146Watauga17Watauga 56% · at Mount Tabor
Fourth Round
8Mount Pleasant2313Sun Valley17Mount Pleasant 65% · at Mount Pleasant
6Watauga2210Union Academy18Watauga 59% · at Watauga
Regional Final
6Watauga168Mount Pleasant17Mount Pleasant 53% · at Watauga
State Championship
Eastern Guilford30Mount Pleasant10Eastern Guilford 89% · neutral site
