NC girls flag football · 2026 · week 7 · as of October 18
Title races and the RPI bubble
Which remaining games decide a conference title, and which teams are fighting for the last playoff berths. Built from the games in our database as of Sunday, October 18.
Talking points
- R J Reynolds at Reagan (Tue 10/20) is the biggest decider on the board this week (Central Piedmont). Reagan is 44% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss; R J Reynolds is 56% to share the title, 100% with a win and 0% with a loss. We favor R J Reynolds, 56%.
- 2 conference title deciders in Week 7 (Tue 10/20). The unbeaten-versus-unbeaten ones: Hoke County at Pinecrest (Mid South, 3-0 vs 1-0 in the league). In each, the winner is at or near a sure share and the loser's title chance collapses.
- Hough, No. 20 in our power ratings, has a decider on Tue 10/27 (Hopewell at Hough, Greater Charlotte): 93% to share the title now, >99% with a win over Hopewell and 79% with a loss.
- Week 8 (Tue 10/27) has 1 deciders. Biggest: Hopewell at Hough (Greater Charlotte, power 69 and 74).
- Clinched outright: Ashley (Carolina Coast), Cox Mill (Greater Metro GMAC), Southeast Alamance (Mid Carolina), Vance County (Northern Six), Mount Pleasant (Rocky River), Jay M Robinson (South Piedmont); clinched at least a share: Southern Nash (Big East), Butler (Meck Power Six), Green Hope (Quad City Seven); 2 more conferences have a team above 99% to at least share it (not proven, so not called clinched). This week a win clinches at least a share for Reagan (outright) (R J Reynolds at Reagan, Tue 10/20); R J Reynolds (outright) (R J Reynolds at Reagan, Tue 10/20); Hoke County (outright) (Hoke County at Pinecrest, Tue 10/20).
- No bubble in 7A (46 teams for 48 spots): everyone is in on these numbers, so what is left to play for is seeding. The bubble is 8A, 1A-6A.
- 8A: 24 of 32 teams get in. 19 are above 99% and 5 below 1%; the 4 closest calls: Ardrey Kell 81%, East Mecklenburg 65%, Enloe 39%, Northwest Guilford 24%.
- 1A-6A: 48 of 110 teams get in. 30 are above 99% and 38 below 1%; the 19 closest calls: Northeast Guilford 88%, West Johnston 84%, Salisbury 82%, South Johnston 73%, Reidsville 72%, Jordan-Matthews 68%.
- Best bubble-versus-bubble game: Piedmont at Charlotte Catholic in 1A-6A (Tue 10/27). Charlotte Catholic goes from 4% to >99% to make the field with a win; Piedmont goes from 15% to 91%.
- Need help even if they win out: Bertie (1A-6A), Northwest Guilford (8A), Jordan (8A).
- Already safe (above 99% to make the field): 8A 19 of 32, 1A-6A 30 of 110.
How to read this
Share of the title means finishing level with or ahead of everyone else in the conference on conference winning percentage (a tie counts as half a win). We do not call tiebreakers, so we never say who wins one. “Alive” means a path to a share exists. “Clinched” and “eliminated” appear only where we counted every outcome of every remaining conference game and it is proven. Percentages are whole numbers, and “<1%” and “>99%” mean not proven impossible or certain.
Win chances for girls flag football come from the weekly flag report's power model (the 18-point spread, capped at 97%). The bubble tables give, for each team, the chance to make the playoff field and the chance if it wins out or loses a given number of its remaining games. Team strength is our own power ratings first.
Conference title deciders
3 deciders across 3 conferences, grouped by week. A game is a decider when both teams are alive with at least a 5% chance at a share of the title, and either side's chance moves 25 points or more between a win and a loss (or the two sides' moves add to 30 or more), or a win clinches a share, or a loss eliminates a team. Within a week, games are in date order and then by how much they move the race.
Week 7Tue 10/20 · 2 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 10/20 | R J Reynolds 3-0 / 9-4 at Reagan 3-1 / 7-4 Our power ratings: R J Reynolds 64 (No. 60); Reagan 61 (No. 70) | Central Piedmont | R J Reynolds 56% | R J Reynolds 56% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it Reagan 44% now → 100% with a win, 0% with a lossa win clinches the title outrighta loss eliminates it |
| Tue 10/20 | Hoke County 3-0 / 12-3 at Pinecrest 1-0 / 7-5 (two games) Our power ratings: Hoke County 71 (No. 26); Pinecrest 68 (No. 38) | Mid South | Hoke County 56% | Hoke County 80% now → 100% with a win, 56% with a lossa win clinches the title outright Pinecrest 20% now → 44% with a win, 0% with a lossa loss eliminates it |
Week 8Tue 10/27 · 1 deciders
| When | Game · conference / overall record | Conference | Our pick | What is at stake: chance of at least a share of the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 10/27 | Hopewell 5-1 / 7-2 at Hough 6-0 / 7-1 Our power ratings: Hopewell 69 (No. 32); Hough 74 (No. 20) | Greater Charlotte | Hough 65% | Hopewell 7% now → 21% with a win, <1% with a loss Hough 93% now → >99% with a win, 79% with a loss |
25 conferences have too few marked conference games in our data to judge a title race and are left out: Big Seven, Central Tar Heel, Coastal, Coastal Plains, Diamond Nine, Eastern Carolina, Four Rivers, Greater Neuse River, Metro, Mid State, Mountain, Mountain Eight, North Piedmont, Northwestern, PAC Seven, Piedmont Triad, Quad County, Southern Carolina, Southwestern, TAAC Six, Three Rivers, Tobacco Road, Triangle Six, Western Foothills, Yadkin Valley.
The RPI bubble
NCHSAA fills each field by final RPI alone, with no automatic bids. We play out every remaining regular-season game 20,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, turn each finish into RPI with the association's formula, and count how often a team is in the field (24 in 8A, 48 in 7A, 48 in 1A-6A). Teams listed are those with a real chance either way, plus the nearest teams on each side.
8A24 of 32 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 24th team's RPI is 0.4317 (next team 0.4165). In our simulation 19 teams are above 99% to make it, 5 are below 1%, and 8 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 or more losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinth Holders | 5-7 | 63 (No. 66) | 0.4629 (19) | 4 | >99% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 99% | Safe even with a slip |
| Green Level | 4-11 | 59 (No. 76) | 0.4598 (20) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 97% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Mallard Creek | 3-7 | 67 (No. 45) | 0.4317 (24) | 3 | 93% | >99% | >99% | 89% | 1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Myers Park | 3-7 | 56 (No. 86) | 0.4414 (22) | 4 | 91% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 37% | Safe even with a slip |
| Ardrey Kell | 2-8 | 58 (No. 83) | 0.4411 (23) | 4 | 81% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 79% | Safe even with a slip |
| East Mecklenburg | 3-7 | 52 (No. 104) | 0.4540 (21) | 4 | 65% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 62% | Win and in |
| Enloe | 4-8 | 51 (No. 106) | 0.4165 (25) | 3 | 39% | >99% | >99% | 91% | 10% | Win and in |
| Northwest Guilford ‡ | 2-6 | 41 (No. 148) | 0.3871 (26) | 1 | 24% | 45% | <1% | — | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Athens Drive | 2-9 | 55 (No. 87) | 0.3781 (27) | 3 | 8% | >99% | 46% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| West Forsyth | 0-7 | 40 (No. 149) | 0.3085 (30) | 3 | <1% | 94% | 6% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Jordan | 0-10 | 47 (No. 117) | 0.3402 (28) | 2 | <1% | 35% | <1% | <1% | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 18, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
7A46 teams for 48 spots: no bubble
7A has 46 teams for 48 spots, so there is no bubble: everyone is in on these numbers and what is left to play for is seeding.
1A-6A48 of 110 teams make the field
Official cut line today: the 48th team's RPI is 0.4791 (next team 0.4789). In our simulation 30 teams are above 99% to make it, 38 are below 1%, and 42 are in between.
| Team | Record | Our power | Official RPI (rank) | Games left | Makes the field | Wins out | 1 loss | 2 losses | 3 or more losses | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Nash | 7-4 | 59 (No. 80) | 0.5128 (35) | 2 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 97% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Sun Valley | 4-2 | 64 (No. 61) | 0.5596 (25) | 3 | 99% | >99% | >99% | 73% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Phillip O. Berry | 6-7 | 64 (No. 55) | 0.5208 (32) | 3 | 97% | >99% | >99% | 85% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Asheboro | 8-5 | 52 (No. 102) | 0.5141 (34) | 3 | 95% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 49% | Safe even with a slip |
| Ragsdale † | 7-6 | 66 (No. 49) | 0.4789 (49) | 4 | 92% | >99% | >99% | 47% | <1% | Safe even with a slip |
| Smoky Mountain | 7-6 | 46 (No. 125) | 0.5043 (38) | 2 | 90% | >99% | 98% | 3% | — | Safe even with a slip |
| Northeast Guilford | 3-3 | 55 (No. 88) | 0.5121 (36) | 5 | 88% | >99% | >99% | 95% | 3% | Safe even with a slip |
| West Johnston | 8-6 | 48 (No. 115) | 0.4858 (46) | 0 | 84% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Salisbury | 7-4 | 47 (No. 119) | 0.5025 (40) | 4 | 82% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 40% | Safe even with a slip |
| South Johnston | 6-5 | 52 (No. 98) | 0.4619 (54) | 2 | 73% | 91% | <1% | <1% | — | Win out, likely in |
| Reidsville | 4-3 | 47 (No. 116) | 0.4915 (44) | 2 | 72% | >99% | 25% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| Jordan-Matthews | 7-5 | 46 (No. 126) | 0.5008 (41) | 5 | 68% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 56% | Win and in |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 3-2 | 47 (No. 120) | 0.4791 (48) | 3 | 66% | >99% | 91% | <1% | <1% | Win and in |
| Felton Grove | 6-11 | 61 (No. 69) | 0.4940 (43) | 0 | 63% | — | — | — | — | Season over, waits on others |
| Bertie | 5-4 | 41 (No. 146) | 0.5042 (39) | 1 | 63% | 68% | <1% | — | — | Needs help even if it wins out |
| Northside (Jacksonville) | 4-5 | 60 (No. 74) | 0.5067 (37) | 4 | 62% | >99% | >99% | 99% | 7% | Win and in |
| Franklinton | 7-8 | 63 (No. 63) | 0.4872 (45) | 1 | 61% | 84% | <1% | — | — | Win out, likely in |
| Hertford County | 5-6 | 51 (No. 105) | 0.5337 (30) | 4 | 60% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 50% | Win and in |
| Piedmont | 3-5 | 53 (No. 97) | 0.4767 (50) | 3 | 55% | >99% | 99% | <1% | <1% | Win and in |
| Charlotte Catholic | 2-2 | 51 (No. 109) | 0.4595 (56) | 2 | 49% | >99% | >99% | <1% | — | Win and in |
| Vance Charter | 1-1 | 42 (No. 139) | 0.4705 (51) | 4 | 48% | >99% | >99% | 3% | <1% | Win and in |
| Hunt | 3-4 | 47 (No. 121) | 0.4567 (57) | 4 | 22% | >99% | >99% | 12% | <1% | Win and in |
| High Point Central | 2-5 | 52 (No. 103) | 0.4289 (63) | 5 | 19% | >99% | >99% | 27% | <1% | Win and in |
| West Brunswick | 5-9 | 65 (No. 52) | 0.4600 (55) | 3 | 18% | 84% | 1% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in |
| North Rowan | 4-3 | 37 (No. 155) | 0.4848 (47) | 6 | 16% | >99% | >99% | >99% | 15% | Win and in |
| Eastern Alamance | 2-2 | 42 (No. 140) | 0.4262 (64) | 2 | 9% | >99% | >99% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 1 of 2) |
| Erwin | 4-11 | 45 (No. 128) | 0.4641 (53) | 3 | 9% | 90% | 2% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Western Guilford | 2-5-1 | 51 (No. 108) | 0.3990 (75) | 6 | 8% | >99% | >99% | 50% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 5 of 6) |
| Northern Guilford | 3-4 | 42 (No. 142) | 0.4547 (58) | 5 | 7% | >99% | >99% | 44% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) (95%+ with 4 of 5) |
| Central Cabarrus | 6-8 | 51 (No. 107) | 0.4689 (52) | 2 | 7% | >99% | 26% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Harnett Central | 4-6 | 41 (No. 143) | 0.4224 (67) | 3 | 4% | >99% | 15% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Dudley | 1-5-1 | 54 (No. 94) | 0.4038 (72) | 5 | 3% | >99% | 9% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Jackson Day | 0-1 | 17 (No. 187) | 0.4010 (73) | 1 | 3% | >99% | <1% | — | — | Win and in (long shot) |
| Louisburg Magnet | 5-6 | 38 (No. 152) | 0.4095 (71) | 7 | 2% | >99% | 41% | <1% | <1% | Win and in (long shot) |
| Monroe | 3-4 | 44 (No. 135) | 0.4242 (66) | 3 | 1% | 83% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Win out, likely in (long shot) |
| Parkwood | 4-7 | 45 (No. 129) | 0.4463 (60) | 2 | 1% | 99% | 3% | <1% | — | Win and in (long shot) |
Ordered by one measure: the overall chance to make the field. Official RPI and rank are the association's table as of October 18, shown for reference only; they do not set the order. "Wins out" and "N losses" are the chance of making the field if the team wins all its remaining games or loses exactly that many. † our record differs from the association's. ‡ has a past-dated game with no result on file, simulated as still open.
The simulation does not model forfeits, opt-outs, cancellations or games not yet on a schedule. Games dated after October 27 come after seeding and are left out of the RPI field. Flag football is a first-season sport, so a 60% pick is a lean, not a lock.
Chances are good to a few points, not exact: 20,000 simulated finishes, and rarer scenarios re-run with the team's own results fixed.
Data check: records match NCHSAA for 186 of 188 teams (table dated October 18); 31 past-dated games are still unscored, 31 of them with an NCHSAA team.