2026 NCHSAA Girls Flag Football Playoff Projections
Week 7. The 285 regular-season games left before
the October 27 reporting deadline were played out 2,000 times, each won with the
chance our ratings give it, and the field drawn by RPI every time. A team's playoff chance
is how often it made the field; its projected RPI is its average final RPI. The bracket is
the most likely path: the teams most likely to make the field, seeded on projected RPI,
every game going to the team our ratings favor, with the score they predict. Field sizes
and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 24 teams in 8A, 48 in 7A and 48 in 1A-6A, split
East and West by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final, the final
at a neutral site. RPI here is ours, computed with NCHSAA's formula; seeding on October 28
uses the association's own figures.
8A
Projected champion: Palisades
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
21
Mallard Creek
3-7
96%
In
0.43171
24
0.4510
22
Myers Park
3-7
91%
In
0.44136
22
0.4485
23
Ardrey Kell
2-8
85%
In
0.44106
23
0.4351
On the bubble
24
East Mecklenburg
3-7
69%
Bubble
0.45399
21
0.4257
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Enloe
4-8
43%
Bubble
0.41654
25
0.4188
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
26
Athens Drive
2-9
9%
Out
0.37812
27
0.3885
27
Northwest Guilford
2-6
6%
Out
0.38738
26
0.3837
28
Jordan
0-10
0%
Out
0.34024
28
0.3514
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
8A bubble card, 1920×1080, for a broadcast or a post · Download the PNG
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Millbrook149Laney13Millbrook 53% · at Millbrook
5Willow Spring3112Green Level3Willow Spring 94% · at Willow Spring
7Hoggard2010Panther Creek11Hoggard 72% · at Hoggard
6Broughton1911Corinth Holders14Broughton 63% · at Broughton
Second Round
1Green Hope308Millbrook3Green Hope 94% · at Green Hope
4Apex165Willow Spring18Willow Spring 55% · at Apex
2Wakefield257Hoggard7Wakefield 87% · at Wakefield
3Leesville Road316Broughton12Leesville Road 88% · at Leesville Road
Third Round
1Green Hope225Willow Spring13Green Hope 71% · at Green Hope
2Wakefield253Leesville Road20Wakefield 62% · at Wakefield
Regional Final
1Green Hope222Wakefield17Green Hope 63% · at Green Hope
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Chambers129Mallard Creek9Chambers 57% · at Chambers
5West Charlotte2712East Mecklenburg7West Charlotte 88% · at West Charlotte
7Apex Friendship1710Myers Park7Apex Friendship 73% · at Apex Friendship
6Pinecrest2511Ardrey Kell13Pinecrest 76% · at Pinecrest
Second Round
1Providence228Chambers2Providence 88% · at Providence
4Hoke County145West Charlotte13Hoke County 54% · at Hoke County
2Palisades337Apex Friendship1Palisades 96% · at Palisades
3Hough256Pinecrest17Hough 67% · at Hough
Third Round
1Providence234Hoke County5Providence 86% · at Providence
2Palisades313Hough9Palisades 90% · at Palisades
Regional Final
1Providence132Palisades20Palisades 67% · at Providence
State Championship
Green Hope18Palisades20Palisades 53% · neutral site
7A
Projected champion: Holly Springs
RPI bubble
All 46 7A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 7A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Knightdale2317Hillside7Knightdale 84% · at Knightdale
13North Brunswick1820Clayton2North Brunswick 84% · at North Brunswick
12Garner1821East Wake5Garner 79% · at Garner
15Southeast Raleigh1618Cleveland6Southeast Raleigh 72% · at Southeast Raleigh
10New Bern3423Smithfield-Selma0New Bern 97% · at New Bern
14New Hanover2919Overhills9New Hanover 88% · at New Hanover
11Cary1422Sanderson8Cary 64% · at Cary
Second Round
1Ashley3716Knightdale0Ashley 97% · at Ashley
8Wake Forest139Heritage12Wake Forest 52% · at Wake Forest
4South Garner2113North Brunswick7South Garner 80% · at South Garner
5Riverside1712Garner6Riverside 75% · at Riverside
2Holly Springs4215Southeast Raleigh0Holly Springs 97% · at Holly Springs
7Fuquay-Varina1610New Bern17New Bern 50% · at Fuquay-Varina
3Cardinal Gibbons2414New Hanover4Cardinal Gibbons 88% · at Cardinal Gibbons
6Southern School of Energy and Sustainability1911Cary12Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 67% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
Third Round
1Ashley288Wake Forest4Ashley 92% · at Ashley
4South Garner165Riverside13South Garner 59% · at South Garner
2Holly Springs3510New Bern5Holly Springs 96% · at Holly Springs
3Cardinal Gibbons236Southern School of Energy and Sustainability13Cardinal Gibbons 72% · at Cardinal Gibbons
Fourth Round
1Ashley274South Garner9Ashley 86% · at Ashley
2Holly Springs273Cardinal Gibbons11Holly Springs 83% · at Holly Springs
Regional Final
1Ashley212Holly Springs23Holly Springs 55% · at Ashley
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Lake Norman617Independence16Independence 73% · at Lake Norman
13Hickory Ridge2320Porter Ridge2Hickory Ridge 89% · at Hickory Ridge
12Hopewell2321Marvin Ridge0Hopewell 91% · at Hopewell
15Rocky River3018Page4Rocky River 93% · at Rocky River
10Mooresville4223A L Brown0Mooresville 97% · at Mooresville
14Reagan2119West Mecklenburg7Reagan 79% · at Reagan
11R J Reynolds3222North Mecklenburg10R J Reynolds 90% · at R J Reynolds
Second Round
1Cuthbertson2917Independence7Cuthbertson 90% · at Cuthbertson
8Southwest Guilford129Davie County13Davie County 53% · at Southwest Guilford
4Ballantyne Ridge2613Hickory Ridge1Ballantyne Ridge 93% · at Ballantyne Ridge
5Grimsley1412Hopewell9Grimsley 63% · at Grimsley
2Cox Mill2015Rocky River8Cox Mill 78% · at Cox Mill
7Weddington1210Mooresville19Mooresville 67% · at Weddington
3Butler2314Reagan1Butler 90% · at Butler
6West Cabarrus1411R J Reynolds12West Cabarrus 55% · at West Cabarrus
Third Round
1Cuthbertson249Davie County12Cuthbertson 77% · at Cuthbertson
4Ballantyne Ridge255Grimsley9Ballantyne Ridge 83% · at Ballantyne Ridge
2Cox Mill2010Mooresville13Cox Mill 67% · at Cox Mill
3Butler216West Cabarrus3Butler 86% · at Butler
Fourth Round
1Cuthbertson204Ballantyne Ridge24Ballantyne Ridge 60% · at Cuthbertson
2Cox Mill153Butler14Cox Mill 53% · at Cox Mill
Regional Final
2Cox Mill154Ballantyne Ridge21Ballantyne Ridge 65% · at Cox Mill
State Championship
Holly Springs22Ballantyne Ridge18Holly Springs 59% · neutral site
1A-6A
Projected champion: Eastern Guilford
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
36
Ragsdale
7-6
92%
In
0.48065
48
0.5190
37
Smoky Mountain
7-6
89%
In
0.50433
38
0.5029
38
Northeast Guilford
3-3
86%
In
0.51247
36
0.5295
On the bubble
39
Salisbury
7-4
82%
Bubble
0.50253
40
0.5160
40
West Johnston
8-6
80%
Bubble
0.48579
46
0.4957
41
Reidsville
4-3
71%
Bubble
0.49147
44
0.5088
42
South Johnston
6-5
68%
Bubble
0.46186
54
0.4907
43
Jordan-Matthews
7-5
66%
Bubble
0.50082
41
0.4968
44
North Forsyth Magnet
3-2
63%
Bubble
0.47930
49
0.4904
45
Northside
4-5
61%
Bubble
0.50669
37
0.5010
46
Felton Grove
6-11
60%
Bubble
0.49405
43
0.4915
47
Bertie
5-4
58%
Bubble
0.50419
39
0.4904
48
Franklinton
7-8
57%
Bubble
0.48717
45
0.4878
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
Hertford County
5-6
55%
Bubble
0.53374
30
0.4964
50
Piedmont
3-5
55%
Bubble
0.47674
50
0.4898
51
Charlotte Catholic
2-2
51%
Bubble
0.45947
56
0.4952
52
Vance Charter
1-1
49%
Bubble
0.47050
51
0.4911
53
Hunt
3-4
22%
Bubble
0.45671
57
0.4735
54
High Point Central
2-5
18%
Bubble
0.43075
63
0.4630
55
West Brunswick
5-9
16%
Bubble
0.46003
55
0.4679
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
56
North Rowan
4-3
15%
Out
0.48477
47
0.4582
57
Erwin
4-11
9%
Out
0.46407
53
0.4665
58
Eastern Alamance
2-2
9%
Out
0.42619
64
0.4476
48 of 110 1A-6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
1A-6A bubble card, 1920×1080, for a broadcast or a post · Download the PNG
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Union Pines1317Northern Nash9Union Pines 59% · at Union Pines
9Southeast Alamance1724Franklinton13Southeast Alamance 61% · at Southeast Alamance
13Williams2220West Johnston10Williams 77% · at Williams
12Rocky Mount2221Felton Grove15Rocky Mount 67% · at Rocky Mount
15Middle Creek2518Northside17Middle Creek 70% · at Middle Creek
10Wake Preparatory Academy2023Bertie4Wake Preparatory Academy 83% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
14Pamlico County2519Jordan-Matthews5Pamlico County 88% · at Pamlico County
11Seaforth2522South Johnston17Seaforth 69% · at Seaforth
Second Round
1Eastern Guilford3416Union Pines3Eastern Guilford 96% · at Eastern Guilford
8Southern Lee119Southeast Alamance23Southeast Alamance 76% · at Southern Lee
4Vance County2813Williams5Vance County 91% · at Vance County
5Northwood2012Rocky Mount21Rocky Mount 50% · at Northwood
2Wilson Preparatory Academy2315Middle Creek20Wilson Preparatory Academy 56% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
7Northside1510Wake Preparatory Academy16Wake Preparatory Academy 51% · at Northside
3Southern Nash3214Pamlico County12Southern Nash 88% · at Southern Nash
6Roxboro Community3511Seaforth15Roxboro Community 88% · at Roxboro Community
Third Round
1Eastern Guilford339Southeast Alamance8Eastern Guilford 93% · at Eastern Guilford
4Vance County2512Rocky Mount10Vance County 81% · at Vance County
2Wilson Preparatory Academy2510Wake Preparatory Academy9Wilson Preparatory Academy 82% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
3Southern Nash316Roxboro Community25Southern Nash 64% · at Southern Nash
Fourth Round
1Eastern Guilford254Vance County14Eastern Guilford 75% · at Eastern Guilford
2Wilson Preparatory Academy183Southern Nash31Southern Nash 79% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
Regional Final
1Eastern Guilford303Southern Nash21Eastern Guilford 71% · at Eastern Guilford
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Northeast Guilford617Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology15Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology 71% · at Northeast Guilford
9Watauga2324North Forsyth Magnet3Watauga 89% · at Watauga
13Jay M Robinson1420Salisbury8Jay M Robinson 64% · at Jay M Robinson
12Sun Valley2821Reidsville10Sun Valley 86% · at Sun Valley
15Olympic1318Asheboro5Olympic 70% · at Olympic
10Union Academy3223Maiden8Union Academy 92% · at Union Academy
14Northwest Cabarrus919Ragsdale20Ragsdale 76% · at Northwest Cabarrus
11Bunker Hill1322Smoky Mountain8Bunker Hill 62% · at Bunker Hill
Second Round
1Saint Stephens1817Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology16Saint Stephens 55% · at Saint Stephens
8Mount Pleasant169Watauga14Mount Pleasant 57% · at Mount Pleasant
4Rockingham County1413Jay M Robinson7Rockingham County 66% · at Rockingham County
5West Henderson1412Sun Valley20Sun Valley 64% · at West Henderson
2Brevard1415Olympic13Brevard 53% · at Brevard
7Carver2410Union Academy20Carver 60% · at Carver
3Mount Tabor1619Ragsdale17Ragsdale 51% · at Mount Tabor
6East Rowan1911Bunker Hill15East Rowan 60% · at East Rowan
Third Round
1Saint Stephens188Mount Pleasant20Mount Pleasant 54% · at Saint Stephens
4Rockingham County1612Sun Valley22Sun Valley 64% · at Rockingham County
2Brevard157Carver22Carver 68% · at Brevard
6East Rowan1219Ragsdale24Ragsdale 78% · at East Rowan
Fourth Round
8Mount Pleasant2212Sun Valley17Mount Pleasant 62% · at Mount Pleasant
7Carver2019Ragsdale17Carver 56% · at Carver
Regional Final
7Carver198Mount Pleasant18Carver 51% · at Carver
State Championship
Eastern Guilford33Carver10Eastern Guilford 91% · neutral site
