Carolina VarsityNC high school football · 2026
Girls Flag Football

Week11

This week's report

203 games, Oct 29–31

Ratings basis: 4464 2026 results, seeded with 2025. Home-field advantage 1.2 points. Weeks run Tuesday to Monday, so a Monday makeup counts in the week it was scheduled.

Read the week 11 reportProjected playoff bracketsFull rankingsPlayoff projectionsPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
Winners picked, week 10
84%
166 of 197 decided games
Average miss, week 10
12.4 pts
predicted margin against the final
Results stored
1,953
games with an NC team this season
On the slate, week 11
203
Oct 29–31

Season 2026, week by week

PlayedThis weekAhead

This week

The top of the week 11 table as each rating system sees it, and the closest games among ranked teams.

Top 10

Ranked among the 427 teams in the week 11 table (5+ games). Other systems are ranked over the same teams.

#TeamRec PowerCV MasseyMaxPreps
1Hough8A · Greater Charlotte9-0132.6111
2Weddington7A · Southern Carolina10-0127.3233
3Grimsley7A · Metro9-0125.5342
4Providence DayNCISAA I · NCISAA Big South8-1125.0424
5Millbrook8A · CAP8-0-1124.5577
6Chambers8A · Meck Power Six9-0119.761412
7Lake Norman7A · North Piedmont9-0119.171010
8Rolesville8A · CAP6-2-1118.881618
9Cleveland7A · Greater Neuse River8-1118.69617
10Reagan7A · Central Piedmont8-1117.1101311

Rank all by Carolina Varsity →

Rank all:Statewide8A7A6A5A4A3A2A1ANCISAA INCISAA IINCISAA 88-MAN

Games to watch

The closest predictions where both teams rank in the top 40. Percent is the favorite's win probability.

  • Fri Oct 30 Kings Mountain@Crest 51% Pick: Crest 22–22
  • Fri Oct 30 Chambers@Mallard Creek 59% Pick: Chambers 24–21
  • Fri Oct 30 Clayton@Cleveland 63% Pick: Cleveland 25–21
  • Fri Oct 30 East Forsyth@Reagan 72% Pick: Reagan 28–20
  • Fri Oct 30 Lake Norman@Mooresville 85% Pick: Lake Norman 33–18

Statewide leaders

From the week 11 report, among the 427 teams with 5+ games. Offense and defense switch between points as scored and opponent-adjusted.

Top 10 offenses

PPG is points per game as scored. Adj is points above what the defenses they faced usually allow.

#TeamPPGAdj
1Pungo Christian AcademyNCISAA 851.0+7.0
2John Paul II CatholicNCISAA 850.5+15.8
3Southeast Alamance5A47.8+21.2
4Fike5A47.4+17.3
5Harnett Central6A47.1+13.6
6Seaforth5A46.2+8.8
7Tarboro2A45.8+13.9
8Faith ChristianNCISAA 845.6+13.1
9Hibriten4A45.6+14.3
10Holmes2A45.5+19.7

Rank all →

Top 10 defenses

PA/G is points allowed per game. Adj is points allowed against what the offenses they faced usually score, so lower is better.

#TeamPA/GAdj
1Warren County2A1.3-14.1
2Millbrook8A2.6-26.3
3Hough8A3.7-27.2
4Jay M Robinson5A3.7-17.9
5Grimsley7A5.0-23.2
6Hibriten4A7.1-13.8
7Northside5A7.3-18.2
8Lake Norman7A7.4-16.5
9Weddington7A7.6-21.6
10Northside1A7.7-8.9

Rank all →

Top 10 toughest schedules

Strength of schedule on the report's rating scale. Higher is tougher.

#TeamRecSOS
1West Charlotte8A5-434.8
2Mallard Creek8A7-232.0
3Providence DayNCISAA I8-131.3
4Garner7A7-230.8
5Independence7A1-830.7
6Butler7A4-530.5
7West Forsyth8A7-228.4
8Myers Park8A6-328.4
9Northwest Guilford8A1-828.1
10Sun Valley6A4-528.1

Rank all →

Toughest conferences

The three strongest conferences in each classification, by the average power of every team in them that has played this season, from the week 11 report. A conference counts once it has 4 rated teams, and one that spans classifications is listed under each. Click a classification for all of its conferences, or a conference for its teams.

Rank all conferences:All8A7A6A5A4A3A2A1ANCISAA INCISAA IINCISAA 88-MAN

Winningest coaches

North Carolina head-coaching records: every game in our archive for the seasons a coach is credited with, from HSFHA, the NCHSAA, NCHSFootball and MaxPreps, with a published stint filling a season no source names. Records outside North Carolina are HSFHA's. Still being completed: for 1980-1999 many seasons have no coach on record anywhere yet.

All-time

NC record
  1. 1Jack HolleyTabor City 1964-69, 1972-81; Hallsboro 1970-71; Wallace-Rose Hill 1982-92, 1997-2008; South Columbus 1993-96; Harrells Christian Academy 2009-10417-126-8
  2. 2David GentryEdneyville 1974-83; Murphy 1984-2020 · 9 state titles406-173-2
  3. 3Burton CatesEastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17 · 1 state title392-132
  4. 4Bob ParoliBenson 1958-63; Jacksonville 1964; Fike 1971-75; Cummings 1976-79; Douglas Byrd 1980-2004; Seventy-First 2005-12 · 1 state title375-191-11
  5. 5Jim TeagueEastern Alamance 1985-88; Garinger 1989-91; Reidsville 1992-2008, 2012-22 · 8 state titles371-102
  6. 6Tom BrownMaiden 1966-78, 1986-2004, 2006-07; Bunker Hill 1982-85; East Burke 2014-16 · 2 state titles354-139-7
  7. 7Jim OddoCharlotte Catholic 1973-2008, 2010-13 · 3 state titles350-142-2
  8. 8Bob LewisEast Bladen 1972-79; Pender 1980-85; Clinton 1988-2001, 2004, 2012-17; Harrells Christian Academy 2007; Whiteville 2008-09; South Brunswick 2020 · 4 state titles316-142-6
  9. 9Allen BrownCentral Davidson 1968; Thomasville 1973-99, 2008, 2010-13 · 4 state titles311-103-2
  10. 10Tom KnottsHarding University 1983-88; West Charlotte 1989-99; Independence 2000-03, 2005-09 · 7 state titles · 195-29-1 in SC306-45

Rank all coaches →

Coaching in 2026

NC record
  1. 1Burton CatesEastern Randolph 1984-2009, 2012, 2018-26; Lee County 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17 · 1 state title392-132
  2. 2Jeff CraddockTarboro 2004-26 · 9 state titles264-48
  3. 3Steve DavisDudley 2004-26 · 5 state titles252-61
  4. 4Richard BaileyJack Britt 2000-02, 2004, 2006-10; Scotland 2012-26240-76
  5. 5Antonio MooreNortheastern 2005-26238-58
  6. 6Donnie KieferSaint Pauls 1986-87; Southwest Guilford 1988-90; Gates County 1991-93; Andrews 1994-95; Hibriten 1996-98; Roanoke 1999-2003; East Carteret 2004-06; Tuscola 2007-11; Central Cabarrus 2012-16, 2022, 2025-26 · 55-34 in SC233-174-5
  7. 7John KirbyEastern Alamance 2001-02, 2004-23, 2025-26222-85-1
  8. 8Todd WillertEast Forsyth 2003-26 · 2 state titles211-87
  9. 9Johnny SowellMonroe 2004-11, 2013-26 · 2 state titles200-82
  10. 10Greg LloydKings Mountain 2004, 2007-22; East Gaston 2005-06; Starmount 2023; Crest 2024-26 · 1 state title200-96

Rank all active coaches →

The record

Every week played, and how its picks held up in final games with an NC team. A tie has no winner to pick, so ties are left out.

Winners picked correctly

Share of decided games, by week. Hover or focus a week for the average miss.

0%25%50%75%100%68%Wk 178%Wk 281%Wk 381%Wk 482%Wk 588%Wk 680%Wk 786%Wk 884%Wk 984%Wk 10
10 Oct 22–24 · 203 games · 201 scored 166 of 197 winners right (84%) · off by 12.4 pts on average ReadPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
09 Oct 13–19 · 201 games · 199 scored 164 of 196 winners right (84%) · off by 12.5 pts on average ReadPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
08 Oct 8–12 · 200 games · 197 scored 165 of 192 winners right (86%) · off by 11.8 pts on average ReadPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
07 Oct 1–5 · 199 games · 197 scored 155 of 194 winners right (80%) · off by 13.1 pts on average ReadPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
06 Sep 22–28 · 149 games · 146 scored 125 of 142 winners right (88%) · off by 13.1 pts on average ReadPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
05 Sep 15–21 · 201 games · 198 scored 161 of 197 winners right (82%) · off by 11.8 pts on average ReadPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
04 Sep 8–14 · 188 games · 187 scored 151 of 186 winners right (81%) · off by 15.1 pts on average ReadPDFCSVJSONMarkdown
03 Sep 3–7 · 202 games · 199 scored 159 of 196 winners right (81%) · off by 14.6 pts on average ReadMarkdown
02 Aug 26–31 · 214 games · 214 scored 166 of 213 winners right (78%) · off by 16.8 pts on average ReadMarkdown
01 Aug 20–24 · 212 games · 212 scored 143 of 210 winners right (68%) · off by 18.4 pts on average ReadMarkdown

Ahead

From the simulation stored Oct 27: 120 seasons over 4464 results.

  • The schedule is played out.

State title odds

Share of 120 simulated seasons ending in a title, each team within its own bracket.

  • Providence DayNCISAA I 94%
  • Asheville School (Independent)NCISAA II 62%
  • Northside1A 57%
  • John Paul II CatholicNCISAA 8 57%
  • Hough8A 48%
  • Tarboro2A 47%
  • Shelby3A 38%
  • High Point Christian AcademyNCISAA II 36%
  • Junius H Rose6A 32%
  • Weddington7A 31%

Ratings desk

When each system last published. The report drops an outside column when its source has not published since before the first kickoff.

Carolina Varsity

Rebuilt weekly
Report
Week 11, built 2026-10-27
Basis
4464 2026 results, seeded with 2025
Home field
1.2 pts

Our own ratings, refit from every result each time a report is written.

Massey

38 days old
As of
Sep 19
Filed as
Week 5
NC teams
428

Massey Ratings for North Carolina, captured every week.

MaxPreps

Current
As of
Oct 25
Filed as
Week 11
NC teams
414

MaxPreps state ratings, captured every week. MaxPreps replaces its numbers when it recomputes, so each week is kept as it stood.

Simmons

Current
As of
Oct 22
Filed as
Week 11
NC teams
426

Simmons Ratings for North Carolina, captured every week with the date the edition was published.

Built Sep 15, 2026

The 2026 season book

Every week on one page, played and projected, through the brackets to a champion. Built before the latest week report, so its played and projected weeks may be a week behind.

Open the season book

New for 2026

Girls flag football

NCHSAA's first sanctioned season: weekly results, power ratings and RPI by playoff group for every school fielding a team.

Open girls flag football