2026 NCHSAA Football Playoffs, with Projections
Week 13. The field and seeds are the NCHSAA's, from its final RPI table, and the bracket is the most likely path through it. Every game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts. The title odds beside it come from playing the rest of the season and the playoffs 120 times, upsets included — a 60% favorite wins this bracket every time and the title 60% of the time. Field sizes and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 48 teams in 1A-7A and 24 in 8A, split east and west by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final and the final at a neutral site.
Not every classification is complete. 1A is waiting on Washington County at Columbia (Monday, Nov. 9). Its bracket stays partly projected until that result is in, and will be updated then. 8A, 7A, 6A, 5A, 4A, 3A and 2A are up to date with every result played so far.
8A
Projected champion: Hough · wins the title in 57% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 22 | Wakefield | 4-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.47898 | 22 | 0.4687 |
| 23 | South Mecklenburg | 4-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.47319 | 23 | 0.4586 |
| 24 | Willow Spring | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.44869 | 24 | 0.4405 |
| Projected cut · top 24 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 25 | Enloe | 4-6-0 | 0% | Out | 0.43711 | 25 | 0.4360 |
| 26 | Northwest Guilford | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.41876 | 26 | 0.4211 |
| 27 | Apex | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.41050 | 27 | 0.4082 |
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Bracket, with projections
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 8 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Panther Creek279Laney47Final · at Panther Creek
5Green Hope4912Willow Spring17Final · at Green Hope
7Leesville Road3710Broughton0Final · at Leesville Road
6Jordan6211Wakefield21Final · at Jordan
Second Round
1Millbrook459Laney13Millbrook 97% · at Millbrook
4Rolesville435Green Hope14Rolesville 97% · at Rolesville
2Apex Friendship227Leesville Road23Leesville Road 54% · at Apex Friendship
3Hoggard396Jordan15Hoggard 93% · at Hoggard
Third Round
1Millbrook264Rolesville20Millbrook 67% · at Millbrook
3Hoggard357Leesville Road17Hoggard 89% · at Hoggard
Regional Final
1Millbrook293Hoggard19Millbrook 76% · at Millbrook
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Palisades559Ardrey Kell17Final · at Palisades
5Myers Park5512South Mecklenburg22Final · at Myers Park
7West Charlotte2010Hoke County7Final · at West Charlotte
6Pinecrest4911Providence29Final · at Pinecrest
Second Round
1Hough438Palisades14Hough 96% · at Hough
4West Forsyth315Myers Park18West Forsyth 80% · at West Forsyth
2Chambers387West Charlotte16Chambers 93% · at Chambers
3Mallard Creek346Pinecrest17Mallard Creek 87% · at Mallard Creek
Third Round
1Hough364West Forsyth17Hough 90% · at Hough
2Chambers253Mallard Creek21Chambers 61% · at Chambers
Regional Final
1Hough342Chambers17Hough 87% · at Hough
State Championship
Hough28Millbrook19Hough 74% · neutral site
Every 8A team's projection — 32 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hough | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 56.7% |
| Chambers | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 1.7% |
| Millbrook | 9.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.8% |
| Mallard Creek | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 2.5% |
| Hoggard | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 6.7% |
| Apex Friendship | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| West Forsyth | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 2.5% |
| Pinecrest | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Rolesville | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 9.2% |
| Myers Park | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| West Charlotte | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Palisades | 9.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Green Hope | 9.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Jordan | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Laney | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Leesville Road | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Ardrey Kell | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Panther Creek | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Hoke County | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Providence | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Broughton | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Wakefield | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| South Mecklenburg | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Willow Spring | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Enloe | 4.0-6.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Northwest Guilford | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Apex | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Corinth Holders | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Mecklenburg | 4.0-6.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Athens Drive | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Garinger | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Green Level | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
7A
Projected champion: Weddington · wins the title in 32% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Chapel Hill | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.39384 | 47 | 0.3927 |
| 47 | South Iredell | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.39578 | 45 | 0.3895 |
| 48 | North Mecklenburg | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.38697 | 49 | 0.3857 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Purnell Swett | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.37833 | 50 | 0.3849 |
| 50 | East Wake | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.39215 | 48 | 0.3825 |
| 51 | Southwest Guilford | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.37133 | 52 | 0.3751 |
48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Bracket, with projections
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 16 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Fuquay-Varina717Topsail34Final · at Fuquay-Varina
9D H Conley6324East Wake38Final · at D H Conley
13Holly Springs4220Overhills10Final · at Holly Springs
12Ashley3821Pine Forest7Final · at Ashley
15Heritage1518North Brunswick28Final · at Heritage
10Southeast Raleigh4123New Hanover7Final · at Southeast Raleigh
14South Central2819Sanderson41Final · at South Central
11Hillside1622South Garner20Final · at Hillside
Second Round
1Cleveland4617Topsail12Cleveland 98% · at Cleveland
8Cape Fear309D H Conley19Cape Fear 77% · at Cape Fear
4Southern School of Energy and Sustainability3813Holly Springs16Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 93% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
5New Bern3312Ashley18New Bern 85% · at New Bern
2Garner4618North Brunswick13Garner 98% · at Garner
7Cardinal Gibbons2310Southeast Raleigh21Cardinal Gibbons 55% · at Cardinal Gibbons
3Clayton4519Sanderson13Clayton 97% · at Clayton
6Wake Forest4222South Garner14Wake Forest 96% · at Wake Forest
Third Round
1Cleveland408Cape Fear15Cleveland 95% · at Cleveland
4Southern School of Energy and Sustainability285New Bern20Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 71% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability
2Garner237Cardinal Gibbons21Garner 56% · at Garner
3Clayton276Wake Forest20Clayton 70% · at Clayton
Fourth Round
1Cleveland324Southern School of Energy and Sustainability18Cleveland 84% · at Cleveland
2Garner223Clayton22Clayton 51% · at Garner
Regional Final
1Cleveland253Clayton21Cleveland 62% · at Cleveland
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Hopewell1417Porter Ridge23Final · at Hopewell
9Hickory Ridge5924Chapel Hill0Final · at Hickory Ridge
13Jack Britt4220R J Reynolds7Final · at Jack Britt
12West Cabarrus3121Parkland19Final · at West Cabarrus
15Butler3018Independence14Final · at Butler
10Davie County5023Lumberton23Final · at Davie County
14Richmond3519Ballantyne Ridge27Final · at Richmond
11Mooresville4222South Iredell13Final · at Mooresville
Second Round
1Weddington4917Porter Ridge11Weddington 99% · at Weddington
8East Forsyth269Hickory Ridge21East Forsyth 64% · at East Forsyth
4Reagan4313Jack Britt14Reagan 97% · at Reagan
5A L Brown4112West Cabarrus14A L Brown 95% · at A L Brown
2Grimsley4515Butler13Grimsley 97% · at Grimsley
7Page3110Davie County18Page 81% · at Page
3Lake Norman3914Richmond15Lake Norman 94% · at Lake Norman
6Marvin Ridge2711Mooresville20Marvin Ridge 69% · at Marvin Ridge
Third Round
1Weddington368East Forsyth16Weddington 90% · at Weddington
4Reagan335A L Brown18Reagan 84% · at Reagan
2Grimsley367Page16Grimsley 90% · at Grimsley
3Lake Norman346Marvin Ridge17Lake Norman 86% · at Lake Norman
Fourth Round
1Weddington314Reagan18Weddington 82% · at Weddington
2Grimsley263Lake Norman21Grimsley 64% · at Grimsley
Regional Final
1Weddington252Grimsley21Weddington 63% · at Weddington
State Championship
Weddington29Cleveland19Weddington 76% · neutral site
Every 7A team's projection — 60 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weddington | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 32.5% |
| Grimsley | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 16.7% |
| Cleveland | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.2% |
| Lake Norman | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 10.8% |
| Garner | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 5.0% |
| Reagan | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 7.5% |
| A L Brown | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Marvin Ridge | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Clayton | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 4.2% |
| New Bern | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Southern School of Energy and Sustainability | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 1.7% |
| Cardinal Gibbons | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.8% |
| Wake Forest | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.8% |
| Page | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.8% |
| East Forsyth | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Cape Fear | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| D H Conley | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Raleigh | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Hickory Ridge | 9.0-2.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Davie County | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Mooresville | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Ashley | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| West Cabarrus | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Hillside | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Jack Britt | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Holly Springs | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Topsail | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Richmond | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| North Brunswick | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Butler | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| South Central | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Heritage | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Sanderson | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Porter Ridge | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Fuquay-Varina | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| South Garner | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Hopewell | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Overhills | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Independence | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Pine Forest | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| New Hanover | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| R J Reynolds | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Ballantyne Ridge | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Lumberton | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Parkland | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Chapel Hill | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| South Iredell | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| North Mecklenburg | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Purnell Swett | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Wake | 3.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southwest Guilford | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cary | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cuthbertson | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| West Mecklenburg | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Riverside | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cox Mill | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| McDowell | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Smithfield-Selma | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Knightdale | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Rocky River | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
6A
Projected champion: Junius H Rose · wins the title in 44% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | South Caldwell | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.42000 | 43 | 0.4132 |
| 47 | Western Harnett | 4-6-0 | 100% | In | 0.41408 | 45 | 0.4128 |
| 48 | West Brunswick | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.40512 | 50 | 0.4121 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Western Guilford | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.40596 | 49 | 0.4080 |
| 50 | Saint Stephens | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.41200 | 47 | 0.4058 |
| 51 | Southeast Guilford | 3-7-0 | 0% | Out | 0.39314 | 51 | 0.3977 |
48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Bracket, with projections
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 16 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16South Johnston5517Felton Grove22Final · at South Johnston
9Seventy-First4824Lee County7Final · at Seventy-First
13Swansboro1920White Oak6Final · at Swansboro
12Franklinton4321Terry Sanford54Final · at Franklinton
15Gray's Creek4918Northern20Final · at Gray's Creek
10Triton2823South View24Final · at Triton
14Westover4419West Johnston0Final · at Westover
11Harnett Central5422Western Harnett14Final · at Harnett Central
Second Round
1Junius H Rose4916South Johnston11Junius H Rose 99% · at Junius H Rose
8Middle Creek289Seventy-First20Middle Creek 71% · at Middle Creek
4Scotland4413Swansboro13Scotland 97% · at Scotland
5Union Pines4121Terry Sanford14Union Pines 95% · at Union Pines
2Jacksonville4715Gray's Creek12Jacksonville 98% · at Jacksonville
7Williams2910Triton19Williams 74% · at Williams
3Northern Nash4214Westover14Northern Nash 96% · at Northern Nash
6Southern Alamance3011Harnett Central19Southern Alamance 79% · at Southern Alamance
Third Round
1Junius H Rose278Middle Creek20Junius H Rose 70% · at Junius H Rose
4Scotland305Union Pines19Scotland 78% · at Scotland
2Jacksonville417Williams15Jacksonville 95% · at Jacksonville
3Northern Nash346Southern Alamance17Northern Nash 87% · at Northern Nash
Fourth Round
1Junius H Rose304Scotland19Junius H Rose 77% · at Junius H Rose
2Jacksonville243Northern Nash21Jacksonville 57% · at Jacksonville
Regional Final
1Junius H Rose252Jacksonville21Junius H Rose 62% · at Junius H Rose
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Reynolds1017Statesville7Final · at Reynolds
9Sun Valley4124Saint Stephens7Final · at Sun Valley
13Watauga1620Olympic8Final · at Watauga
12Ashbrook4721Central Cabarrus21Final · at Ashbrook
15Ragsdale3718Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology6Final · at Ragsdale
10Charlotte Catholic4823Piedmont6Final · at Charlotte Catholic
14Glenn719Eastern Guilford20Final · at Glenn
11Northern Guilford6322South Caldwell0Final · at Northern Guilford
Second Round
1Asheville4016Reynolds15Asheville 95% · at Asheville
8Dudley239Sun Valley22Dudley 52% · at Dudley
4Kings Mountain4113Watauga14Kings Mountain 95% · at Kings Mountain
5Mount Tabor2512Ashbrook21Mount Tabor 62% · at Mount Tabor
2Roberson4115Ragsdale14Roberson 95% · at Roberson
7Freedom1910Charlotte Catholic30Charlotte Catholic 79% · at Freedom
3Asheboro3319Eastern Guilford18Asheboro 86% · at Asheboro
6Alexander Central2111Northern Guilford24Northern Guilford 59% · at Alexander Central
Third Round
1Asheville288Dudley20Asheville 72% · at Asheville
4Kings Mountain305Mount Tabor19Kings Mountain 77% · at Kings Mountain
2Roberson3310Charlotte Catholic18Roberson 85% · at Roberson
3Asheboro2211Northern Guilford22Asheboro 50% · at Asheboro
Fourth Round
1Asheville214Kings Mountain26Kings Mountain 64% · at Asheville
2Roberson373Asheboro16Roberson 91% · at Roberson
Regional Final
2Roberson254Kings Mountain21Roberson 63% · at Roberson
State Championship
Junius H Rose28Roberson19Junius H Rose 73% · neutral site
Every 6A team's projection — 58 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junius H Rose | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 44.2% |
| Asheville | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.8% |
| Jacksonville | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 15.0% |
| Scotland | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 15.8% |
| Northern Nash | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 10.0% |
| Union Pines | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.8% |
| Southern Alamance | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Roberson | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 2.5% |
| Williams | 6.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Asheboro | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Middle Creek | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 5.0% |
| Seventy-First | 10.0-1.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 2.5% |
| Triton | 10.0-1.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Kings Mountain | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 3.3% |
| Harnett Central | 9.0-2.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Mount Tabor | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Swansboro | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Freedom | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Alexander Central | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Sun Valley | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Northern Guilford | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Catholic | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Dudley | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Westover | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Franklinton | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Ashbrook | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Watauga | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Ragsdale | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Gray's Creek | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Reynolds | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Glenn | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Guilford | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| South Johnston | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Terry Sanford | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Statesville | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Felton Grove | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Northern | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| West Johnston | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Olympic | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Piedmont | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| South View | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| White Oak | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Central Cabarrus | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Lee County | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| South Caldwell | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Western Harnett | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| West Brunswick | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Western Guilford | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Saint Stephens | 3.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southeast Guilford | 3.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Vance County | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| E E Smith | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Harding University | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Ben L. Smith | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Lee | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Iredell | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Chapel Hill | 1.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
5A
Projected champion: Crest · wins the title in 9% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Huss | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.40898 | 46 | 0.4089 |
| 47 | Richlands | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.40205 | 47 | 0.4011 |
| 48 | Charles B Aycock | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.39617 | 48 | 0.3905 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Dixon | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.36431 | 51 | 0.3761 |
| 50 | Northeast Guilford | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.36144 | 52 | 0.3666 |
| 51 | Atkins | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.36572 | 50 | 0.3640 |
48 of 57 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Bracket, with projections
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 16 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16West Carteret2117Currituck County14Final · at West Carteret
9Rocky Mount3824Charles B Aycock20Final · at Rocky Mount
13Western Alamance5620Southern Wayne0Final · at Western Alamance
12South Granville3121South Brunswick29Final · at South Granville
15Southern Nash4118Rockingham County25Final · at Southern Nash
10Orange3523Richlands21Final · at Orange
14Montgomery Central4819J. F. Webb7Final · at Montgomery Central
11Saint Pauls3322Person32Final · at Saint Pauls
Second Round
1Southeast Alamance4516West Carteret13Southeast Alamance 98% · at Southeast Alamance
8Havelock299Rocky Mount19Havelock 76% · at Havelock
4Croatan3513Western Alamance17Croatan 88% · at Croatan
5Seaforth3412South Granville17Seaforth 88% · at Seaforth
2Northside4515Southern Nash13Northside 97% · at Northside
7Eastern Alamance4510Orange13Eastern Alamance 97% · at Eastern Alamance
3Hunt3714Montgomery Central16Hunt 91% · at Hunt
6Fike3611Saint Pauls16Fike 90% · at Fike
Third Round
1Southeast Alamance278Havelock20Southeast Alamance 67% · at Southeast Alamance
4Croatan335Seaforth18Croatan 85% · at Croatan
2Northside297Eastern Alamance19Northside 76% · at Northside
3Hunt206Fike27Fike 68% · at Hunt
Fourth Round
1Southeast Alamance264Croatan20Southeast Alamance 66% · at Southeast Alamance
2Northside286Fike20Northside 72% · at Northside
Regional Final
1Southeast Alamance202Northside28Northside 71% · at Southeast Alamance
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Parkwood4217Erwin27Final · at Parkwood
9Hickory5624Huss14Final · at Hickory
13Smoky Mountain5820North Buncombe34Final · at Smoky Mountain
12Northwest Cabarrus4421North Lincoln50Final · at Northwest Cabarrus
15West Henderson5618Carson27Final · at West Henderson
10Forest Hills4823Forestview25Final · at Forest Hills
14North Davidson5019East Rowan7Final · at North Davidson
11Enka3022North Henderson15Final · at Enka
Second Round
1Crest4316Parkwood13Crest 97% · at Crest
8Oak Grove239Hickory22Oak Grove 54% · at Oak Grove
4South Point3513Smoky Mountain17South Point 89% · at South Point
5Monroe4621North Lincoln12Monroe 98% · at Monroe
2Franklin4115West Henderson14Franklin 96% · at Franklin
7East Lincoln3810Forest Hills16East Lincoln 92% · at East Lincoln
3Jay M Robinson3814North Davidson15Jay M Robinson 93% · at Jay M Robinson
6West Rowan3011Enka19West Rowan 78% · at West Rowan
Third Round
1Crest248Oak Grove21Crest 58% · at Crest
4South Point235Monroe22South Point 53% · at South Point
2Franklin207East Lincoln26East Lincoln 65% · at Franklin
3Jay M Robinson386West Rowan16Jay M Robinson 93% · at Jay M Robinson
Fourth Round
1Crest254South Point21Crest 62% · at Crest
3Jay M Robinson277East Lincoln20Jay M Robinson 69% · at Jay M Robinson
Regional Final
1Crest233Jay M Robinson22Crest 54% · at Crest
State Championship
Crest24Northside21Crest 59% · neutral site
Every 5A team's projection — 57 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Alamance | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.0% |
| Crest | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 9.2% |
| Northside | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 25.0% |
| Franklin | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| South Point | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 13.3% |
| Hunt | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.8% |
| Jay M Robinson | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 6.7% |
| Monroe | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 5.8% |
| Croatan | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 2.5% |
| East Lincoln | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 5.8% |
| West Rowan | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Seaforth | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Oak Grove | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 4.2% |
| Hickory | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 1.7% |
| Forest Hills | 9.0-2.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Fike | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 5.0% |
| Eastern Alamance | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 5.0% |
| Enka | 9.0-2.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Smoky Mountain | 9.0-2.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Havelock | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| North Davidson | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Rocky Mount | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Cabarrus | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Parkwood | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Orange | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Saint Pauls | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| West Henderson | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Montgomery Central | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| South Granville | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Western Alamance | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| West Carteret | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Southern Nash | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Erwin | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| North Lincoln | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Carson | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Currituck County | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Rockingham County | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.2 | 0.0% |
| South Brunswick | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.8 | 0.0% |
| J. F. Webb | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Southern Wayne | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| North Buncombe | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| East Rowan | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| North Henderson | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Forestview | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Person | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Huss | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Richlands | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Charles B Aycock | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Dixon | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Northeast Guilford | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Atkins | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Concord | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Forsyth Magnet | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Southern Guilford | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Gaston | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Cedar Ridge | 1.0-7.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Douglas Byrd | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
4A
Projected champion: Hibriten · wins the title in 12% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Lincoln Charter | 2-8-0 | 100% | In | 0.39008 | 46 | 0.3917 |
| 47 | Cummings | 1-9-0 | 100% | In | 0.39790 | 44 | 0.3876 |
| 48 | Carver | 3-7-0 | 100% | In | 0.37006 | 48 | 0.3631 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Ashe County | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34647 | 50 | 0.3525 |
| 50 | East Henderson | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.35089 | 49 | 0.3525 |
| 51 | North Johnston | 2-8-0 | 0% | Out | 0.34154 | 51 | 0.3453 |
48 of 55 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Bracket, with projections
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 16 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Washington3417Eastern Wayne28Final · at Washington
9Fairmont5824Carver6Final · at Fairmont
13Ledford4220Jordan-Matthews6Final · at Ledford
12Randleman4821Cummings24Final · at Randleman
15Bunn918Anson15Final · at Bunn
10Roanoke Rapids723Lexington28Final · at Roanoke Rapids
14North Pitt819Southwest48Final · at North Pitt
11Nash Central2122Central Davidson28Final · at Nash Central
Second Round
1East Duplin3816Washington15East Duplin 93% · at East Duplin
8Southwestern Randolph229Fairmont23Fairmont 52% · at Southwestern Randolph
4West Craven4213Ledford14West Craven 96% · at West Craven
5Reidsville4012Randleman15Reidsville 95% · at Reidsville
2T Wingate Andrews4018Anson15T Wingate Andrews 95% · at T Wingate Andrews
7Morehead2123Lexington23Lexington 55% · at Morehead
3Clinton3019Southwest19Clinton 78% · at Clinton
6SouthWest Edgecombe3522Central Davidson17SouthWest Edgecombe 88% · at SouthWest Edgecombe
Third Round
1East Duplin389Fairmont16East Duplin 92% · at East Duplin
4West Craven235Reidsville22West Craven 54% · at West Craven
2T Wingate Andrews4323Lexington13T Wingate Andrews 97% · at T Wingate Andrews
3Clinton216SouthWest Edgecombe25SouthWest Edgecombe 60% · at Clinton
Fourth Round
1East Duplin214West Craven25West Craven 62% · at East Duplin
2T Wingate Andrews326SouthWest Edgecombe18T Wingate Andrews 83% · at T Wingate Andrews
Regional Final
2T Wingate Andrews224West Craven22West Craven 51% · at T Wingate Andrews
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16East Burke3617North Surry14Final · at East Burke
9R-S Central6224Lincoln Charter28Final · at R-S Central
13Bunker Hill4420East Gaston6Final · at Bunker Hill
12Wilkes Central2221Bandys3Final · at Wilkes Central
15Maiden2918Newton-Conover27Final · at Maiden
10Pisgah2423Foard38Final · at Pisgah
14West Stanly2819Salisbury7Final · at West Stanly
11South Rowan4222Forbush31Final · at South Rowan
Second Round
1Hibriten4316East Burke14Hibriten 97% · at Hibriten
8Lake Norman Charter209R-S Central28R-S Central 73% · at Lake Norman Charter
4Burns3413Bunker Hill17Burns 87% · at Burns
5Mount Pleasant2512Wilkes Central21Mount Pleasant 61% · at Mount Pleasant
2Tuscola3415Maiden17Tuscola 87% · at Tuscola
7Stuart W Cramer4423Foard13Stuart W Cramer 97% · at Stuart W Cramer
3West Iredell4314West Stanly13West Iredell 97% · at West Iredell
6West Stokes3511South Rowan17West Stokes 89% · at West Stokes
Third Round
1Hibriten399R-S Central15Hibriten 94% · at Hibriten
4Burns325Mount Pleasant18Burns 82% · at Burns
2Tuscola247Stuart W Cramer21Tuscola 57% · at Tuscola
3West Iredell316West Stokes18West Iredell 80% · at West Iredell
Fourth Round
1Hibriten274Burns20Hibriten 69% · at Hibriten
2Tuscola233West Iredell22Tuscola 53% · at Tuscola
Regional Final
1Hibriten242Tuscola21Hibriten 58% · at Hibriten
State Championship
Hibriten24West Craven21Hibriten 59% · neutral site
Every 4A team's projection — 55 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Duplin | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 3.3% |
| West Iredell | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.0% |
| Hibriten | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 11.7% |
| Tuscola | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 11.7% |
| T Wingate Andrews | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 25.0% |
| Clinton | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.8% |
| West Craven | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 1.7% |
| Mount Pleasant | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Burns | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 10.0% |
| West Stokes | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 1.7% |
| Reidsville | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 7.5% |
| SouthWest Edgecombe | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 3.3% |
| Stuart W Cramer | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 7.5% |
| Lake Norman Charter | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| R-S Central | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Bunker Hill | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Wilkes Central | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Maiden | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| West Stanly | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| South Rowan | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| East Burke | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Pisgah | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Morehead | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Fairmont | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Southwestern Randolph | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Ledford | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.8% |
| Randleman | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| North Surry | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Washington | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Anson | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Newton-Conover | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Nash Central | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Southwest | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| East Gaston | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Roanoke Rapids | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| North Pitt | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Salisbury | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Foard | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Bandys | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Bunn | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Central Davidson | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Wayne | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Lexington | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Forbush | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Jordan-Matthews | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Lincoln Charter | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Cummings | 1.0-10.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Carver | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Ashe County | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| East Henderson | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Johnston | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Brevard | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Red Springs | 2.0-8.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Carrboro | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| North Lenoir | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
3A
Projected champion: Shelby · wins the title in 33% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
| School | Record | Playoff chance | Status | RPI today | Rank today | Projected RPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in | |||||||
| 46 | Patton | 1-9-0 | 100% | In | 0.32667 | 46 | 0.3327 |
| 47 | Bessemer City | 1-9-0 | 100% | In | 0.32533 | 48 | 0.3310 |
| 48 | Trinity | 1-9-0 | 100% | In | 0.30719 | 50 | 0.3078 |
| Projected cut · top 48 make the field | |||||||
| Edge of the bubble: first teams out | |||||||
| 49 | Goldsboro | 0-10-0 | 0% | Out | 0.29021 | 52 | 0.2956 |
| 50 | Bartlett Yancey | 1-9-0 | 0% | Out | 0.29315 | 51 | 0.2892 |
| 51 | Beddingfield | 0-10-0 | 0% | Out | 0.26539 | 53 | 0.2661 |
48 of 52 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are the official NCHSAA table as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Bracket, with projections
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 16 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Wake Preparatory Academy617Greene Central42Final · at Wake Preparatory Academy
9Wallace-Rose Hill6824Trinity0Final · at Wallace-Rose Hill
13Louisburg Magnet2020Ayden-Grifton15Final · at Louisburg Magnet
12South Columbus5821McMichael6Final · at South Columbus
15Northwood3418Kinston30Final · at Northwood
10Farmville Central4923Heide Trask6Final · at Farmville Central
14Princeton5819Pender26Final · at Princeton
11Providence Grove3522South Lenoir6Final · at Providence Grove
Second Round
1Northeastern3217Greene Central18Northeastern 83% · at Northeastern
8Pasquotank County189Wallace-Rose Hill32Wallace-Rose Hill 83% · at Pasquotank County
4James Kenan4413Louisburg Magnet13James Kenan 97% · at James Kenan
5Martin County3412South Columbus17Martin County 87% · at Martin County
2Whiteville3715Northwood16Whiteville 91% · at Whiteville
7Hertford County3010Farmville Central19Hertford County 77% · at Hertford County
3Midway2314Princeton22Midway 53% · at Midway
6Eastern Randolph3811Providence Grove15Eastern Randolph 93% · at Eastern Randolph
Third Round
1Northeastern289Wallace-Rose Hill20Northeastern 72% · at Northeastern
4James Kenan295Martin County19James Kenan 75% · at James Kenan
2Whiteville257Hertford County21Whiteville 61% · at Whiteville
3Midway206Eastern Randolph26Eastern Randolph 64% · at Midway
Fourth Round
1Northeastern244James Kenan21Northeastern 58% · at Northeastern
2Whiteville216Eastern Randolph25Eastern Randolph 62% · at Whiteville
Regional Final
1Northeastern266Eastern Randolph20Northeastern 66% · at Northeastern
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16North Wilkes6017Pine Lake Preparatory22Final · at North Wilkes
9Mountain Heritage5224Bessemer City14Final · at Mountain Heritage
13Owen2220Polk County28Final · at Owen
12West Davidson4721East Davidson0Final · at West Davidson
15East Rutherford4018West Lincoln61Final · at East Rutherford
10West Wilkes4123Draughn12Final · at West Wilkes
14East Surry4619Wheatmore36Final · at East Surry
11Union Academy1922Patton14Final · at Union Academy
Second Round
1North Stanly4516North Wilkes13North Stanly 98% · at North Stanly
8Lincolnton399Mountain Heritage15Lincolnton 93% · at Lincolnton
4Walkertown4320Polk County13Walkertown 97% · at Walkertown
5Thomasville3512West Davidson17Thomasville 89% · at Thomasville
2Shelby4718West Lincoln12Shelby 98% · at Shelby
7Chase2210West Wilkes22Chase 51% · at Chase
3Hendersonville3614East Surry16Hendersonville 91% · at Hendersonville
6Mount Airy4111Union Academy14Mount Airy 95% · at Mount Airy
Third Round
1North Stanly258Lincolnton21North Stanly 62% · at North Stanly
4Walkertown215Thomasville25Thomasville 61% · at Walkertown
2Shelby457Chase13Shelby 97% · at Shelby
3Hendersonville246Mount Airy21Hendersonville 57% · at Hendersonville
Fourth Round
1North Stanly315Thomasville19North Stanly 80% · at North Stanly
2Shelby363Hendersonville16Shelby 90% · at Shelby
Regional Final
1North Stanly212Shelby25Shelby 61% · at North Stanly
State Championship
Northeastern19Shelby30Shelby 77% · neutral site
Every 3A team's projection — 52 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeastern | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 12.5% |
| North Stanly | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.2% |
| Whiteville | 9.0-0.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 1.7% |
| Shelby | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 33.3% |
| Midway | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 2.5% |
| Hendersonville | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| James Kenan | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 8.3% |
| Walkertown | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Martin County | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.8% |
| Eastern Randolph | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 9.2% |
| Thomasville | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 3.3% |
| Mount Airy | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.8% |
| Chase | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Lincolnton | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 6.7% |
| Hertford County | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Mountain Heritage | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| West Wilkes | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Union Academy | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Pasquotank County | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Wallace-Rose Hill | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| West Davidson | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Farmville Central | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Providence Grove | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| South Columbus | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Princeton | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 1.7% |
| Northwood | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Greene Central | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Louisburg Magnet | 8.0-3.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Wake Preparatory Academy | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| East Surry | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| North Wilkes | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Owen | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| East Rutherford | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| Kinston | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| West Lincoln | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Polk County | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Pender | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Pine Lake Preparatory | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| East Davidson | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Wheatmore | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Ayden-Grifton | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| McMichael | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| South Lenoir | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Heide Trask | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Draughn | 0.0-11.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| Patton | 1.0-10.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 0.0% |
| Bessemer City | 1.0-10.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Trinity | 1.0-10.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 0.0% |
| Goldsboro | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Bartlett Yancey | 1.0-9.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Beddingfield | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
| Surry Central | 0.0-10.0 | 0% | — | 0.0% |
2A
Projected champion: Tarboro · wins the title in 36% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 44 2A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 2A.
Bracket, with projections
44 teams, 32-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 12 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-10
16Rosewood3617Pamlico County16Final · at Rosewood
13Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy3220Lejeune8Final · at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy
12Camden County4021American Leadership Academy - Johnston14Final · at Camden County
15Hobbton5618Northampton County12Final · at Hobbton
14East Carteret3619Union6Final · at East Carteret
11Bertie122Triangle Math and Science Academy0Final · at Bertie
Second Round
1Tarboro4916Rosewood11Tarboro 99% · at Tarboro
8Gates County309North Duplin Jr Sr19Gates County 79% · at Gates County
4Lakewood4013Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy15Lakewood 94% · at Lakewood
5Manteo2712Camden County20Manteo 70% · at Manteo
2Holmes4315Hobbton13Holmes 97% · at Holmes
7Southside2110West Columbus25West Columbus 63% · at Southside
3Warren County4814East Carteret11Warren County 98% · at Warren County
6East Bladen3411Bertie17East Bladen 86% · at East Bladen
Third Round
1Tarboro468Gates County12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
4Lakewood255Manteo21Lakewood 60% · at Lakewood
2Holmes4610West Columbus12Holmes 98% · at Holmes
3Warren County426East Bladen14Warren County 96% · at Warren County
Fourth Round
1Tarboro474Lakewood12Tarboro 98% · at Tarboro
2Holmes233Warren County22Holmes 55% · at Holmes
Regional Final
1Tarboro312Holmes18Tarboro 80% · at Tarboro
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-10
16Langtree Charter Academy4417Avery County28Final · at Langtree Charter Academy
13Albemarle3820Bradford Preparatory19Final · at Albemarle
12Cherryville6321Elkin0Final · at Cherryville
15Swain County4918Bishop McGuinness43Final · at Swain County
14South Stokes2819South Stanly56Final · at South Stokes
11Cherokee3922Hayesville12Final · at Cherokee
Second Round
1Corvian Community4916Langtree Charter Academy11Corvian Community 99% · at Corvian Community
8East Wilkes299Christ the King19East Wilkes 76% · at East Wilkes
4Community School of Davidson4513Albemarle13Community School of Davidson 98% · at Community School of Davidson
5Alleghany2612Cherryville20Alleghany 66% · at Alleghany
2Starmount4615Swain County13Starmount 98% · at Starmount
7Mountain Island Charter1910Mitchell30Mitchell 79% · at Mountain Island Charter
3Murphy4319South Stanly13Murphy 97% · at Murphy
6North Rowan3711Cherokee16North Rowan 91% · at North Rowan
Third Round
1Corvian Community308East Wilkes19Corvian Community 77% · at Corvian Community
4Community School of Davidson295Alleghany19Community School of Davidson 75% · at Community School of Davidson
2Starmount3310Mitchell17Starmount 86% · at Starmount
3Murphy246North Rowan21Murphy 56% · at Murphy
Fourth Round
1Corvian Community304Community School of Davidson19Corvian Community 77% · at Corvian Community
2Starmount293Murphy19Starmount 77% · at Starmount
Regional Final
1Corvian Community262Starmount20Corvian Community 65% · at Corvian Community
State Championship
Corvian Community20Tarboro28Tarboro 72% · neutral site
Every 2A team's projection — 44 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corvian Community | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.3% |
| Starmount | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 9.2% |
| Holmes | 8.0-1.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 25.8% |
| Tarboro | 9.0-1.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 35.8% |
| Warren County | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 5.8% |
| Murphy | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Alleghany | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.2 | 0.8% |
| Community School of Davidson | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.8 | 0.8% |
| North Rowan | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 2.5% |
| Lakewood | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Manteo | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Mountain Island Charter | 8.0-2.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| East Bladen | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| East Wilkes | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.8% |
| Christ the King | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Southside | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Mitchell | 7.0-3.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Cherokee | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Cherryville | 7.0-4.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Gates County | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| North Duplin Jr Sr | 5.0-4.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| West Columbus | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Albemarle | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| Bertie | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Camden County | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 13.0 | 0.0% |
| East Carteret | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Hobbton | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Rosewood | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| South Stokes | 5.0-6.0 | 100% | 14.0 | 0.0% |
| Swain County | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 15.0 | 0.0% |
| Langtree Charter Academy | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 16.0 | 0.0% |
| South Stanly | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Pamlico County | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Avery County | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Bishop McGuinness | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Elkin | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Union | 3.0-8.0 | 100% | 18.0 | 0.0% |
| Bradford Preparatory | 2.0-9.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Northampton County | 2.0-10.0 | 100% | 19.0 | 0.0% |
| Lejeune | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Hayesville | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
| American Leadership Academy - Johnston | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Triangle Math and Science Academy | 1.0-7.0 | 100% | 22.0 | 0.0% |
1A
1A is not complete: it is waiting on one first-round game. Washington County at Columbia, Monday, Nov. 9. Every other 1A first-round game is final. Until that game is played, its winner and every later 1A game it feeds are projections, and this bracket will be updated with the result.
Projected champion: Northside · wins the title in 60% of simulated seasons
RPI bubble
All 22 1A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 1A.
Bracket, with projections
22 teams, 16-team bracket per region, the NCHSAA's field and seeds. 5 games played, marked Final; every other game goes to the team our model favors, with the score it predicts.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-5
8Columbia179Washington County35Washington County 88% · at Columbia · not yet played, set for Monday, Nov. 9
7Rocky Mount Preparatory810Weldon STEM16Final · at Rocky Mount Preparatory
6KIPP Pride1511Jones12Final · at KIPP Pride
Second Round
1Northside469Washington County12Northside 98% · at Northside
4North Edgecombe235Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy22North Edgecombe 53% · at North Edgecombe
2Hobgood Charter4010Weldon STEM15Hobgood Charter 95% · at Hobgood Charter
3Sallie B Howard376KIPP Pride16Sallie B Howard 91% · at Sallie B Howard
Third Round
1Northside454North Edgecombe13Northside 97% · at Northside
2Hobgood Charter203Sallie B Howard26Sallie B Howard 65% · at Hobgood Charter
Regional Final
1Northside443Sallie B Howard13Northside 97% · at Northside
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-5
8College Prep and Leadership Academy169Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy0Final · at College Prep and Leadership Academy
7Rosman5010Andrews0Final · at Rosman
6South Davidson Middle and1211North Stokes21Final · at South Davidson Middle and
Second Round
1Chatham Central398College Prep and Leadership Academy15Chatham Central 94% · at Chatham Central
4Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad295East Columbus Junior-Senior19Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 76% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad
2Wilson Preparatory Academy417Rosman14Wilson Preparatory Academy 95% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
3Robbinsville5111North Stokes10Robbinsville 99% · at Robbinsville
Third Round
1Chatham Central254Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad21Chatham Central 60% · at Chatham Central
2Wilson Preparatory Academy233Robbinsville22Wilson Preparatory Academy 52% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
Regional Final
1Chatham Central162Wilson Preparatory Academy37Wilson Preparatory Academy 92% · at Chatham Central
State Championship
Northside23Wilson Preparatory Academy22Northside 53% · neutral site
Every 1A team's projection — 22 teams
| School | Proj. record | Playoffs | Avg seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 60.0% |
| Chatham Central | 10.0-0.0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.8% |
| Wilson Preparatory Academy | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 30.8% |
| Hobgood Charter | 7.0-2.0 | 100% | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| Sallie B Howard | 6.0-3.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0.0% |
| Robbinsville | 5.0-5.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 6.7% |
| North Edgecombe | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.0% |
| Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad | 6.0-4.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 0.8% |
| East Columbus Junior-Senior | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| Rosman | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy | 4.0-6.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| South Davidson Middle and | 6.0-5.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| KIPP Pride | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 0.0% |
| College Prep and Leadership Academy | 3.0-7.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Rocky Mount Preparatory | 4.0-7.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 0.0% |
| Columbia | 2.0-5.0 | 100% | 8.0 | 0.0% |
| Washington County | 2.0-8.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.8% |
| Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy | 1.0-10.0 | 100% | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Andrews | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| North Stokes | 1.0-10.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |
| Weldon STEM | 1.0-9.0 | 100% | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Jones | 0.0-11.0 | 100% | 11.0 | 0.0% |