2026 NCHSAA Girls Flag Football Playoff Projections
Week 5 (week in progress). The 541 regular-season games left before
the October 27 reporting deadline were played out 2,000 times, each won with the
chance our ratings give it, and the field drawn by RPI every time. A team's playoff chance
is how often it made the field; its projected RPI is its average final RPI. The bracket is
the most likely path: the teams most likely to make the field, seeded on projected RPI,
every game going to the team our ratings favor, with the score they predict. Field sizes
and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 24 teams in 8A, 48 in 7A and 48 in 1A-6A, split
East and West by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final, the final
at a neutral site. RPI here is ours, computed with NCHSAA's formula; seeding on October 28
uses the association's own figures.
8A
Projected champion: Palisades
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
19
Green Level
4-7
99%
In
0.46420
20
0.4800
20
Corinth Holders
3-6
97%
In
0.46184
21
0.4745
21
Mallard Creek
2-5
86%
In
0.43502
22
0.4566
On the bubble
22
Athens Drive
2-5
82%
Bubble
0.42631
23
0.4470
23
Myers Park
1-6
77%
Bubble
0.40980
24
0.4419
24
East Mecklenburg
3-4
67%
Bubble
0.46483
19
0.4328
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Ardrey Kell
1-6
35%
Bubble
0.40524
25
0.4109
26
Enloe
2-6
29%
Bubble
0.39522
27
0.4097
27
Northwest Guilford
2-5
26%
Bubble
0.40052
26
0.4042
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
28
Jordan
0-6
2%
Out
0.33212
30
0.3593
29
South Mecklenburg
1-8
1%
Out
0.33253
29
0.3580
30
West Forsyth
0-6
1%
Out
0.33746
28
0.3524
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Hoggard139Laney7Hoggard 63% · at Hoggard
5Willow Spring2412Athens Drive0Willow Spring 92% · at Willow Spring
7Millbrook2010Panther Creek15Millbrook 61% · at Millbrook
6Broughton2011Corinth Holders11Broughton 72% · at Broughton
Second Round
1Green Hope288Hoggard0Green Hope 94% · at Green Hope
4Leesville Road205Willow Spring19Leesville Road 50% · at Leesville Road
2Wakefield317Millbrook8Wakefield 92% · at Wakefield
3Apex296Broughton8Apex 89% · at Apex
Third Round
1Green Hope254Leesville Road13Green Hope 77% · at Green Hope
2Wakefield223Apex21Wakefield 51% · at Wakefield
Regional Final
1Green Hope222Wakefield16Green Hope 66% · at Green Hope
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Green Level159Apex Friendship16Apex Friendship 52% · at Green Level
5Hoke County2312East Mecklenburg7Hoke County 83% · at Hoke County
7Pinecrest1210Mallard Creek16Mallard Creek 62% · at Pinecrest
6Chambers2111Myers Park5Chambers 83% · at Chambers
Second Round
1Palisades339Apex Friendship0Palisades 97% · at Palisades
4West Charlotte155Hoke County13West Charlotte 55% · at West Charlotte
2Providence2210Mallard Creek0Providence 90% · at Providence
3Hough176Chambers15Hough 56% · at Hough
Third Round
1Palisades294West Charlotte4Palisades 92% · at Palisades
2Providence233Hough7Providence 84% · at Providence
Regional Final
1Palisades182Providence11Palisades 68% · at Palisades
State Championship
Green Hope15Palisades17Palisades 54% · neutral site
7A
Projected champion: Holly Springs
RPI bubble
All 46 7A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 7A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Overhills1817Knightdale19Knightdale 50% · at Overhills
13Garner1220Sanderson7Garner 63% · at Garner
12New Bern2321East Wake9New Bern 80% · at New Bern
15New Hanover1718Cleveland7New Hanover 72% · at New Hanover
10Heritage2823Smithfield-Selma0Heritage 94% · at Heritage
14North Brunswick1919Clayton3North Brunswick 84% · at North Brunswick
11Wake Forest3222Hillside0Wake Forest 96% · at Wake Forest
Second Round
1Ashley3517Knightdale1Ashley 97% · at Ashley
8Cary159Southeast Raleigh10Cary 60% · at Cary
4South Garner1613Garner4South Garner 78% · at South Garner
5Riverside2312New Bern11Riverside 77% · at Riverside
2Holly Springs3915New Hanover0Holly Springs 97% · at Holly Springs
7Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi2110Heritage13Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi 69% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi
3Cardinal Gibbons2714North Brunswick4Cardinal Gibbons 92% · at Cardinal Gibbons
6Fuquay-Varina1311Wake Forest9Fuquay-Varina 60% · at Fuquay-Varina
Third Round
1Ashley278Cary6Ashley 89% · at Ashley
4South Garner175Riverside10South Garner 65% · at South Garner
2Holly Springs327Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi7Holly Springs 92% · at Holly Springs
3Cardinal Gibbons236Fuquay-Varina7Cardinal Gibbons 84% · at Cardinal Gibbons
Fourth Round
1Ashley254South Garner10Ashley 82% · at Ashley
2Holly Springs253Cardinal Gibbons11Holly Springs 80% · at Holly Springs
Regional Final
1Ashley192Holly Springs25Holly Springs 64% · at Ashley
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Marvin Ridge1217Lake Norman6Marvin Ridge 64% · at Marvin Ridge
13Rocky River3120West Mecklenburg3Rocky River 94% · at Rocky River
12Hickory Ridge2921North Mecklenburg6Hickory Ridge 91% · at Hickory Ridge
15Reagan1118Independence10Reagan 50% · at Reagan
10West Cabarrus3123A L Brown3West Cabarrus 95% · at West Cabarrus
14Hopewell2719Page2Hopewell 93% · at Hopewell
11R J Reynolds2822Porter Ridge3R J Reynolds 93% · at R J Reynolds
Second Round
1Cuthbertson3316Marvin Ridge1Cuthbertson 96% · at Cuthbertson
8Ballantyne Ridge259Davie County10Ballantyne Ridge 82% · at Ballantyne Ridge
4Butler1913Rocky River10Butler 71% · at Butler
5Mooresville2212Hickory Ridge8Mooresville 81% · at Mooresville
2Cox Mill2315Reagan4Cox Mill 87% · at Cox Mill
7Weddington1610West Cabarrus8Weddington 69% · at Weddington
3Grimsley1214Hopewell9Grimsley 59% · at Grimsley
6Southwest Guilford1511R J Reynolds12Southwest Guilford 57% · at Southwest Guilford
Third Round
1Cuthbertson268Ballantyne Ridge21Cuthbertson 61% · at Cuthbertson
4Butler215Mooresville14Butler 67% · at Butler
2Cox Mill227Weddington8Cox Mill 80% · at Cox Mill
3Grimsley166Southwest Guilford12Grimsley 61% · at Grimsley
Fourth Round
1Cuthbertson214Butler17Cuthbertson 60% · at Cuthbertson
2Cox Mill203Grimsley9Cox Mill 75% · at Cox Mill
Regional Final
1Cuthbertson242Cox Mill17Cuthbertson 68% · at Cuthbertson
State Championship
Cuthbertson18Holly Springs27Holly Springs 70% · neutral site
1A-6A
Projected champion: Eastern Guilford
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
32
Asheboro
6-4
89%
In
0.50116
39
0.5179
33
Reidsville
2-3
88%
In
0.52812
31
0.5359
34
Hertford County
4-4
87%
In
0.54902
26
0.5244
On the bubble
35
Northeast Guilford
1-3
83%
Bubble
0.48140
45
0.5247
36
Piedmont
3-4
82%
Bubble
0.48362
43
0.5100
37
Bertie
4-2
79%
Bubble
0.54313
28
0.5117
38
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
3-5
74%
Bubble
0.48942
42
0.5054
39
South Johnston
4-5
68%
Bubble
0.43087
61
0.4940
40
Northside
3-3
65%
Bubble
0.54094
30
0.5024
41
Jordan-Matthews
5-4
58%
Bubble
0.47891
46
0.4892
42
West Johnston
6-3
52%
Bubble
0.48206
44
0.4884
43
Sun Valley
1-2
48%
Bubble
0.51301
35
0.4817
44
Smoky Mountain
4-5
47%
Bubble
0.49485
41
0.4828
45
Salisbury
4-4
45%
Bubble
0.47654
47
0.4822
46
Harnett Central
2-4
43%
Bubble
0.44259
58
0.4778
47
Felton Grove
5-9
41%
Bubble
0.49805
40
0.4799
48
Vance Charter
0-1
37%
Bubble
0.40000
67
0.4662
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
West Brunswick
3-6
31%
Bubble
0.43162
60
0.4700
50
Eastern Alamance
0-1
31%
Bubble
0.40000
68
0.4586
51
Concord
3-5
30%
Bubble
0.44686
55
0.4668
52
West Rowan
1-5
24%
Bubble
0.38500
75
0.4579
53
North Henderson
5-5
20%
Bubble
0.45107
53
0.4609
54
Hunt
3-4
17%
Bubble
0.45251
51
0.4571
55
Louisburg Magnet
4-4
17%
Bubble
0.43817
59
0.4559
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
56
Morehead
1-1
13%
Out
0.44361
57
0.4233
57
Dudley
1-5-1
11%
Out
0.38594
74
0.4455
58
North Forsyth Magnet
1-3
11%
Out
0.35097
82
0.4352
48 of 102 1A-6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Hertford County1217Northern Nash13Northern Nash 51% · at Hertford County
9Roxboro Community3524Vance Charter3Roxboro Community 96% · at Roxboro Community
13Rocky Mount2020South Johnston18Rocky Mount 57% · at Rocky Mount
12Union Pines2621West Johnston5Union Pines 89% · at Union Pines
15Franklinton2418Bertie1Franklinton 91% · at Franklinton
10Seaforth2123Harnett Central8Seaforth 80% · at Seaforth
14Middle Creek2819Northside16Middle Creek 77% · at Middle Creek
11Wake Preparatory Academy1222Felton Grove18Felton Grove 65% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
Second Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy2417Northern Nash7Wilson Preparatory Academy 85% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
8Northside89Roxboro Community28Roxboro Community 89% · at Northside
4Northwood2613Rocky Mount14Northwood 76% · at Northwood
5Vance County2112Union Pines9Vance County 76% · at Vance County
2Southern Nash2915Franklinton10Southern Nash 87% · at Southern Nash
7Southern Lee1910Seaforth18Southern Lee 51% · at Southern Lee
3Southeast Alamance2214Middle Creek18Southeast Alamance 60% · at Southeast Alamance
6Pamlico County2122Felton Grove17Pamlico County 59% · at Pamlico County
Third Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy249Roxboro Community18Wilson Preparatory Academy 66% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
4Northwood155Vance County22Vance County 67% · at Northwood
2Southern Nash337Southern Lee12Southern Nash 89% · at Southern Nash
3Southeast Alamance236Pamlico County16Southeast Alamance 68% · at Southeast Alamance
Fourth Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy165Vance County22Vance County 65% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
2Southern Nash273Southeast Alamance17Southern Nash 75% · at Southern Nash
Regional Final
2Southern Nash235Vance County19Southern Nash 60% · at Southern Nash
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Ragsdale1417Northeast Guilford9Ragsdale 64% · at Ragsdale
9East Rowan1924Sun Valley18East Rowan 53% · at East Rowan
13Jay M Robinson120Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology14Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology 79% · at Jay M Robinson
12Northwest Cabarrus1521Jordan-Matthews12Northwest Cabarrus 57% · at Northwest Cabarrus
15Reidsville1118Asheboro12Asheboro 53% · at Reidsville
10Watauga2923Salisbury8Watauga 90% · at Watauga
14Olympic1619Piedmont12Olympic 61% · at Olympic
11Union Academy2722Smoky Mountain5Union Academy 90% · at Union Academy
Second Round
1Eastern Guilford3216Ragsdale2Eastern Guilford 95% · at Eastern Guilford
8Williams309East Rowan7Williams 91% · at Williams
4West Henderson1120Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology12Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology 50% · at West Henderson
5Carver2812Northwest Cabarrus9Carver 87% · at Carver
2Rockingham County1818Asheboro7Rockingham County 74% · at Rockingham County
7Mount Pleasant2010Watauga13Mount Pleasant 67% · at Mount Pleasant
3Brevard1614Olympic14Brevard 54% · at Brevard
6Mount Tabor2311Union Academy19Mount Tabor 61% · at Mount Tabor
Third Round
1Eastern Guilford298Williams15Eastern Guilford 81% · at Eastern Guilford
5Carver2220Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology12Carver 73% · at Carver
2Rockingham County127Mount Pleasant20Mount Pleasant 69% · at Rockingham County
3Brevard166Mount Tabor21Mount Tabor 64% · at Brevard
Fourth Round
1Eastern Guilford345Carver13Eastern Guilford 89% · at Eastern Guilford
6Mount Tabor167Mount Pleasant18Mount Pleasant 53% · at Mount Tabor
Regional Final
1Eastern Guilford307Mount Pleasant9Eastern Guilford 89% · at Eastern Guilford
State Championship
Eastern Guilford27Southern Nash21Eastern Guilford 64% · neutral site