2026 NCHSAA Girls Flag Football Playoff Projections
Week 4. The 642 regular-season games left before
the October 27 reporting deadline were played out 2,000 times, each won with the
chance our ratings give it, and the field drawn by RPI every time. A team's playoff chance
is how often it made the field; its projected RPI is its average final RPI. The bracket is
the most likely path: the teams most likely to make the field, seeded on projected RPI,
every game going to the team our ratings favor, with the score they predict. Field sizes
and seeding follow the NCHSAA handbook: 24 teams in 8A, 48 in 7A and 48 in 1A-6A, split
East and West by longitude, the higher seed hosting through the regional final, the final
at a neutral site. RPI here is ours, computed with NCHSAA's formula; seeding on October 28
uses the association's own figures.
8A
Projected champion: Green Hope
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
20
Apex Friendship
3-5
96%
In
0.50209
17
0.4715
21
Mallard Creek
1-5
87%
In
0.40890
25
0.4621
22
Myers Park
1-5
86%
In
0.41810
24
0.4576
On the bubble
23
Athens Drive
2-4
77%
Bubble
0.43623
23
0.4481
24
Ardrey Kell
1-5
56%
Bubble
0.44977
22
0.4271
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25
Northwest Guilford
2-4
38%
Bubble
0.39985
26
0.4145
26
East Mecklenburg
2-4
35%
Bubble
0.45299
21
0.4142
27
Enloe
2-6
25%
Bubble
0.39537
27
0.4118
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
28
Jordan
0-5
3%
Out
0.34789
28
0.3660
29
Garinger
0-4
2%
Out
0.30255
30
0.3381
30
West Forsyth
0-5
2%
Out
0.32258
29
0.3568
24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Millbrook169Laney12Millbrook 60% · at Millbrook
5Willow Spring2612Athens Drive0Willow Spring 93% · at Willow Spring
7Hoggard1710Panther Creek11Hoggard 66% · at Hoggard
6Broughton2211Corinth Holders11Broughton 75% · at Broughton
Second Round
1Green Hope318Millbrook0Green Hope 96% · at Green Hope
4Leesville Road205Willow Spring19Leesville Road 52% · at Leesville Road
2Wakefield267Hoggard4Wakefield 90% · at Wakefield
3Apex296Broughton8Apex 89% · at Apex
Third Round
1Green Hope254Leesville Road13Green Hope 77% · at Green Hope
2Wakefield213Apex20Wakefield 50% · at Wakefield
Regional Final
1Green Hope222Wakefield14Green Hope 69% · at Green Hope
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-4
8Green Level159Apex Friendship16Apex Friendship 51% · at Green Level
5West Charlotte2112Ardrey Kell6West Charlotte 82% · at West Charlotte
7Pinecrest1110Mallard Creek17Mallard Creek 65% · at Pinecrest
6Chambers1811Myers Park6Chambers 78% · at Chambers
Second Round
1Providence279Apex Friendship0Providence 94% · at Providence
4Hough145West Charlotte16West Charlotte 54% · at Hough
2Palisades2410Mallard Creek1Palisades 91% · at Palisades
3Hoke County156Chambers13Hoke County 56% · at Hoke County
Third Round
1Providence225West Charlotte5Providence 85% · at Providence
2Palisades263Hoke County5Palisades 88% · at Palisades
Regional Final
1Providence152Palisades16Palisades 52% · at Providence
State Championship
Green Hope17Palisades13Green Hope 60% · neutral site
7A
Projected champion: Holly Springs
RPI bubble
All 46 7A teams make the 48-team field, so there is no bubble in 7A.
Projected bracket
46 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Overhills1817Knightdale19Knightdale 52% · at Overhills
13North Brunswick1820East Wake9North Brunswick 70% · at North Brunswick
12New Bern1421Sanderson16Sanderson 54% · at New Bern
15Garner1618Cleveland2Garner 81% · at Garner
10Wake Forest2723Smithfield-Selma0Wake Forest 94% · at Wake Forest
14New Hanover1619Clayton2New Hanover 80% · at New Hanover
11Heritage3822Hillside0Heritage 97% · at Heritage
Second Round
1Ashley3517Knightdale2Ashley 96% · at Ashley
8Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi209Southeast Raleigh14Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi 65% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi
4South Garner2113North Brunswick5South Garner 83% · at South Garner
5Cary1721Sanderson1Cary 84% · at Cary
2Holly Springs3315Garner0Holly Springs 96% · at Holly Springs
7Fuquay-Varina1410Wake Forest11Fuquay-Varina 58% · at Fuquay-Varina
3Cardinal Gibbons2814New Hanover1Cardinal Gibbons 94% · at Cardinal Gibbons
6Riverside1911Heritage14Riverside 64% · at Riverside
Third Round
1Ashley308Southern School of Energy and Sustainabi11Ashley 87% · at Ashley
4South Garner95Cary8South Garner 51% · at South Garner
2Holly Springs297Fuquay-Varina4Holly Springs 93% · at Holly Springs
3Cardinal Gibbons246Riverside10Cardinal Gibbons 80% · at Cardinal Gibbons
Fourth Round
1Ashley244South Garner10Ashley 81% · at Ashley
2Holly Springs223Cardinal Gibbons12Holly Springs 73% · at Holly Springs
Regional Final
1Ashley192Holly Springs21Holly Springs 56% · at Ashley
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-9
16Marvin Ridge1417Lake Norman6Marvin Ridge 69% · at Marvin Ridge
13Hickory Ridge2320West Mecklenburg5Hickory Ridge 85% · at Hickory Ridge
12West Cabarrus2321Porter Ridge5West Cabarrus 86% · at West Cabarrus
15Reagan918Independence11Independence 54% · at Reagan
10Davie County3623A L Brown0Davie County 97% · at Davie County
14Hopewell2919Page3Hopewell 93% · at Hopewell
11R J Reynolds3322North Mecklenburg8R J Reynolds 93% · at R J Reynolds
Second Round
1Cuthbertson3216Marvin Ridge0Cuthbertson 96% · at Cuthbertson
8Rocky River219Ballantyne Ridge20Rocky River 50% · at Rocky River
4Grimsley1413Hickory Ridge9Grimsley 62% · at Grimsley
5Mooresville2512West Cabarrus8Mooresville 85% · at Mooresville
2Cox Mill2118Independence4Cox Mill 84% · at Cox Mill
7Weddington1210Davie County14Davie County 53% · at Weddington
3Butler2014Hopewell3Butler 84% · at Butler
6Southwest Guilford1511R J Reynolds14Southwest Guilford 53% · at Southwest Guilford
Third Round
1Cuthbertson248Rocky River16Cuthbertson 70% · at Cuthbertson
4Grimsley145Mooresville24Mooresville 72% · at Grimsley
2Cox Mill1910Davie County8Cox Mill 75% · at Cox Mill
3Butler236Southwest Guilford5Butler 86% · at Butler
Fourth Round
1Cuthbertson295Mooresville18Cuthbertson 74% · at Cuthbertson
2Cox Mill133Butler15Butler 57% · at Cox Mill
Regional Final
1Cuthbertson223Butler16Cuthbertson 64% · at Cuthbertson
State Championship
Cuthbertson18Holly Springs21Holly Springs 59% · neutral site
1A-6A
Projected champion: Eastern Guilford
RPI bubble
School
Record
Playoff chance
Status
RPI today
Rank today
Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
31
Middle Creek
4-4
90%
In
0.54319
24
0.5280
32
Asheboro
4-4
86%
In
0.52534
35
0.5184
33
Bertie
4-2
86%
In
0.51560
38
0.5245
On the bubble
34
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology
3-5
75%
Bubble
0.49568
42
0.5070
35
Jordan-Matthews
4-3
62%
Bubble
0.47244
45
0.4940
36
Reidsville
2-3
60%
Bubble
0.53867
28
0.4970
37
West Johnston
6-3
59%
Bubble
0.47913
44
0.4951
38
Northside
3-3
59%
Bubble
0.54094
26
0.4945
39
Northern Nash
4-3
58%
Bubble
0.51638
36
0.4927
40
West Rowan
1-4
52%
Bubble
0.39349
70
0.4860
41
South Johnston
2-5
45%
Bubble
0.38848
72
0.4803
42
Northeast Guilford
1-2
44%
Bubble
0.46540
46
0.4785
43
Vance Charter
0-1
40%
Bubble
0.40000
66
0.4702
44
Smoky Mountain
3-5
40%
Bubble
0.50427
41
0.4782
45
Harnett Central
2-4
37%
Bubble
0.40474
64
0.4736
46
Charlotte Catholic
1-1
36%
Bubble
0.45464
50
0.4747
47
Southern Alamance
0-1
36%
Bubble
0.53254
29
0.4642
48
West Brunswick
3-6
36%
Bubble
0.43105
61
0.4743
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49
High Point Central
1-2
32%
Bubble
0.46003
48
0.4652
50
Louisburg Magnet
2-3
25%
Bubble
0.40807
63
0.4619
51
Western Alamance
0-1
25%
Bubble
0.53254
30
0.4520
52
Salisbury
3-4
23%
Bubble
0.43198
60
0.4608
53
Monroe
3-3
21%
Bubble
0.45076
52
0.4518
54
Concord
2-5
21%
Bubble
0.43974
57
0.4563
55
Southern Guilford
0-1
21%
Bubble
0.28857
90
0.4344
56
Hunt
2-3
16%
Bubble
0.44448
55
0.4493
57
North Henderson
5-5
16%
Bubble
0.44604
54
0.4583
58
Sun Valley
0-2
16%
Bubble
0.44929
53
0.4197
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
59
T Wingate Andrews
1-2
15%
Out
0.37268
74
0.4438
60
Felton Grove
4-8
14%
Out
0.48507
43
0.4600
61
McMichael
2-4
14%
Out
0.52987
33
0.4447
48 of 100 1A-6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.
Projected bracket
48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.
East
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Middle Creek3017Bertie6Middle Creek 92% · at Middle Creek
9Roxboro Community3524Vance Charter4Roxboro Community 96% · at Roxboro Community
13Hertford County1720Northern Nash10Hertford County 69% · at Hertford County
12Seaforth2321South Johnston13Seaforth 73% · at Seaforth
15Franklinton2218West Johnston6Franklinton 84% · at Franklinton
10Union Pines2523Harnett Central4Union Pines 89% · at Union Pines
14Rocky Mount1919Northside18Rocky Mount 52% · at Rocky Mount
11Wake Preparatory Academy1822West Brunswick23West Brunswick 62% · at Wake Preparatory Academy
Second Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy2716Middle Creek19Wilson Preparatory Academy 69% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
8Northside79Roxboro Community29Roxboro Community 90% · at Northside
4Northwood2613Hertford County9Northwood 84% · at Northwood
5Vance County2612Seaforth9Vance County 86% · at Vance County
2Southeast Alamance2215Franklinton9Southeast Alamance 79% · at Southeast Alamance
7Southern Lee1710Union Pines23Union Pines 66% · at Southern Lee
3Southern Nash3114Rocky Mount10Southern Nash 90% · at Southern Nash
6Pamlico County2522West Brunswick22Pamlico County 57% · at Pamlico County
Third Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy259Roxboro Community16Wilson Preparatory Academy 72% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
4Northwood145Vance County21Vance County 67% · at Northwood
2Southeast Alamance2210Union Pines14Southeast Alamance 70% · at Southeast Alamance
3Southern Nash316Pamlico County16Southern Nash 81% · at Southern Nash
Fourth Round
1Wilson Preparatory Academy175Vance County22Vance County 61% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy
2Southeast Alamance233Southern Nash22Southeast Alamance 52% · at Southeast Alamance
Regional Final
2Southeast Alamance175Vance County19Vance County 57% · at Southeast Alamance
West
First Round
Byes: seeds 1-8
16Asheboro817Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology13Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology 63% · at Asheboro
9Watauga5024Southern Alamance0Watauga 97% · at Watauga
13Ragsdale2120West Rowan3Ragsdale 87% · at Ragsdale
12Piedmont2121Northeast Guilford5Piedmont 84% · at Piedmont
15Olympic2218Reidsville3Olympic 87% · at Olympic
10Union Academy2023Charlotte Catholic11Union Academy 71% · at Union Academy
14Northwest Cabarrus1119Jordan-Matthews13Jordan-Matthews 54% · at Northwest Cabarrus
11East Rowan1622Smoky Mountain7East Rowan 72% · at East Rowan
Second Round
1Eastern Guilford3317Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology2Eastern Guilford 96% · at Eastern Guilford
8Mount Pleasant159Watauga13Mount Pleasant 57% · at Mount Pleasant
4Mount Tabor1913Ragsdale15Mount Tabor 62% · at Mount Tabor
5West Henderson1112Piedmont18Piedmont 67% · at West Henderson
2Brevard1515Olympic14Brevard 52% · at Brevard
7Jay M Robinson610Union Academy19Union Academy 79% · at Jay M Robinson
3Rockingham County1719Jordan-Matthews10Rockingham County 67% · at Rockingham County
6Carver2611East Rowan11Carver 82% · at Carver
Third Round
1Eastern Guilford338Mount Pleasant5Eastern Guilford 95% · at Eastern Guilford
4Mount Tabor2212Piedmont16Mount Tabor 64% · at Mount Tabor
2Brevard2010Union Academy19Brevard 50% · at Brevard
3Rockingham County196Carver21Carver 57% · at Rockingham County
Fourth Round
1Eastern Guilford354Mount Tabor10Eastern Guilford 92% · at Eastern Guilford
2Brevard206Carver21Carver 53% · at Brevard
Regional Final
1Eastern Guilford396Carver8Eastern Guilford 95% · at Eastern Guilford
State Championship
Eastern Guilford24Vance County15Eastern Guilford 72% · neutral site