2026-27 NCHSAA Girls Basketball Playoff Projections

Week 1. The 4,461 regular-season games left before February 19 were played out 1,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, and the field drawn by RPI every time. A team's playoff chance is how often it made the field; its projected RPI is its average final RPI. The bracket is the most likely path: the teams most likely to make the field, seeded on projected RPI, every game going to the team our ratings favor, with the score they predict. There are 48 teams in each class and 24 in 8A, split East and West by longitude. The higher seed hosts through the fourth round; the regional final and the state final are at set sites. We are assuming February 19 is the last day that counts; the NCHSAA's calendar for this season may differ. RPI here is ours, computed with NCHSAA's formula; seeding uses the association's own figures.

8A

Projected champion: Leesville Road

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
17	Apex Friendship	96%	In	—	—	0.5336
18	Athens Drive	90%	In	—	—	0.5127
19	Ardrey Kell	89%	In	—	—	0.5088
On the bubble
20	Chambers	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.5033
21	Apex	79%	Bubble	—	—	0.4970
22	Palisades	76%	Bubble	—	—	0.4959
23	Broughton	64%	Bubble	—	—	0.4766
24	Hoke County	64%	Bubble	—	—	0.4777
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25	Green Hope	53%	Bubble	—	—	0.4669
26	Corinth Holders	29%	Bubble	—	—	0.4462
27	Panther Creek	29%	Bubble	—	—	0.4418
28	West Charlotte	28%	Bubble	—	—	0.4387
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
29	East Mecklenburg	14%	Out	—	—	0.4285
30	Jordan	11%	Out	—	—	0.4186
31	Garinger	0%	Out	—	—	0.3427

24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Millbrook429Apex Friendship39Millbrook 58% · at Millbrook

5Laney4512Broughton36Laney 75% · at Laney

7Green Level4110Athens Drive40Green Level 54% · at Green Level

6Rolesville4511Apex36Rolesville 75% · at Rolesville

Second Round

1Hoggard448Millbrook37Hoggard 73% · at Hoggard

4Wakefield405Laney41Laney 51% · at Wakefield

2Willow Spring457Green Level36Willow Spring 78% · at Willow Spring

3Leesville Road446Rolesville37Leesville Road 70% · at Leesville Road

Third Round

1Hoggard425Laney39Hoggard 61% · at Hoggard

2Willow Spring393Leesville Road42Leesville Road 59% · at Willow Spring

Regional Final

1Hoggard403Leesville Road41Leesville Road 54% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Hough399Ardrey Kell42Ardrey Kell 61% · at Hough

5West Forsyth4612Hoke County35West Forsyth 79% · at West Forsyth

7South Mecklenburg4510Chambers36South Mecklenburg 77% · at South Mecklenburg

6Northwest Guilford4211Palisades39Northwest Guilford 61% · at Northwest Guilford

Second Round

1Providence449Ardrey Kell37Providence 71% · at Providence

4Pinecrest395West Forsyth42West Forsyth 60% · at Pinecrest

2Myers Park417South Mecklenburg40Myers Park 55% · at Myers Park

3Mallard Creek436Northwest Guilford38Mallard Creek 66% · at Mallard Creek

Third Round

1Providence425West Forsyth39Providence 57% · at Providence

2Myers Park403Mallard Creek42Mallard Creek 57% · at Myers Park

Regional Final

1Providence403Mallard Creek41Mallard Creek 54% · neutral site

State Championship

Leesville Road43Mallard Creek38Leesville Road 65% · neutral site

7A

Projected champion: North Mecklenburg

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
40	Parkland	92%	In	—	—	0.4885
41	Knightdale	92%	In	—	—	0.4972
42	Fuquay-Varina	91%	In	—	—	0.4796
On the bubble
43	A L Brown	83%	Bubble	—	—	0.4717
44	Cape Fear	68%	Bubble	—	—	0.4528
45	South Iredell	67%	Bubble	—	—	0.4525
46	New Bern	66%	Bubble	—	—	0.4483
47	Cary	55%	Bubble	—	—	0.4391
48	Mooresville	54%	Bubble	—	—	0.4388
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Page	54%	Bubble	—	—	0.4386
50	Hillside	50%	Bubble	—	—	0.4359
51	Riverside	48%	Bubble	—	—	0.4343
52	Clayton	35%	Bubble	—	—	0.4224
53	Independence	31%	Bubble	—	—	0.4198
54	Pine Forest	17%	Bubble	—	—	0.4001
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55	D H Conley	13%	Out	—	—	0.3993
56	West Mecklenburg	8%	Out	—	—	0.3882
57	North Brunswick	6%	Out	—	—	0.3915

48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16East Wake3917Wake Forest42Wake Forest 58% · at East Wake

9Lumberton4524Cary36Lumberton 76% · at Lumberton

13Overhills4420Purnell Swett38Overhills 69% · at Overhills

12Garner4521Fuquay-Varina36Garner 77% · at Garner

15Jack Britt3918New Hanover42New Hanover 59% · at Jack Britt

10Chapel Hill4723New Bern35Chapel Hill 82% · at Chapel Hill

14Topsail4119Knightdale42Knightdale 51% · at Topsail

11Cardinal Gibbons4722Cape Fear35Cardinal Gibbons 83% · at Cardinal Gibbons

Second Round

1South Garner5317Wake Forest28South Garner 96% · at South Garner

8Ashley419Lumberton40Ashley 52% · at Ashley

4Southern School of Energy and Sustainability4413Overhills37Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 72% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability

5Heritage4012Garner41Garner 54% · at Heritage

2South Central4618New Hanover35South Central 79% · at South Central

7Cleveland4310Chapel Hill38Cleveland 67% · at Cleveland

3Southeast Raleigh5119Knightdale30Southeast Raleigh 93% · at Southeast Raleigh

6Holly Springs4411Cardinal Gibbons38Holly Springs 69% · at Holly Springs

Third Round

1South Garner498Ashley32South Garner 90% · at South Garner

4Southern School of Energy and Sustainability4112Garner40Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 52% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability

2South Central407Cleveland41Cleveland 52% · at South Central

3Southeast Raleigh446Holly Springs37Southeast Raleigh 72% · at Southeast Raleigh

Fourth Round

1South Garner474Southern School of Energy and Sustainability34South Garner 84% · at South Garner

3Southeast Raleigh457Cleveland36Southeast Raleigh 75% · at Southeast Raleigh

Regional Final

1South Garner433Southeast Raleigh38South Garner 65% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Ballantyne Ridge4017R J Reynolds41R J Reynolds 54% · at Ballantyne Ridge

9Cox Mill4724Mooresville34Cox Mill 84% · at Cox Mill

13Cuthbertson4620Richmond35Cuthbertson 80% · at Cuthbertson

12Hickory Ridge4421Parkland37Hickory Ridge 71% · at Hickory Ridge

15Southwest Guilford4218Butler40Southwest Guilford 57% · at Southwest Guilford

10West Cabarrus4623South Iredell36West Cabarrus 78% · at West Cabarrus

14Rocky River4119Reagan40Rocky River 54% · at Rocky River

11East Forsyth4822A L Brown33East Forsyth 87% · at East Forsyth

Second Round

1North Mecklenburg5517R J Reynolds27North Mecklenburg 97% · at North Mecklenburg

8Porter Ridge439Cox Mill38Porter Ridge 66% · at Porter Ridge

4Grimsley4213Cuthbertson39Grimsley 62% · at Grimsley

5Davie County4312Hickory Ridge38Davie County 66% · at Davie County

2McDowell4715Southwest Guilford35McDowell 83% · at McDowell

7Weddington4410West Cabarrus37Weddington 70% · at Weddington

3Marvin Ridge4714Rocky River34Marvin Ridge 83% · at Marvin Ridge

6Lake Norman4311East Forsyth38Lake Norman 65% · at Lake Norman

Third Round

1North Mecklenburg488Porter Ridge33North Mecklenburg 87% · at North Mecklenburg

4Grimsley415Davie County40Grimsley 53% · at Grimsley

2McDowell427Weddington40McDowell 57% · at McDowell

3Marvin Ridge416Lake Norman40Marvin Ridge 55% · at Marvin Ridge

Fourth Round

1North Mecklenburg474Grimsley34North Mecklenburg 85% · at North Mecklenburg

2McDowell403Marvin Ridge41Marvin Ridge 55% · at McDowell

Regional Final

1North Mecklenburg473Marvin Ridge33North Mecklenburg 86% · neutral site

State Championship

North Mecklenburg43South Garner37North Mecklenburg 68% · neutral site

6A

Projected champion: Northern Guilford

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
39	Southern Lee	91%	In	—	—	0.4646
40	Freedom	89%	In	—	—	0.4506
41	Ashbrook	88%	In	—	—	0.4560
On the bubble
42	East Chapel Hill	85%	Bubble	—	—	0.4500
43	Asheville	84%	Bubble	—	—	0.4507
44	Gray's Creek	84%	Bubble	—	—	0.4461
45	Middle Creek	66%	Bubble	—	—	0.4243
46	Northern Nash	63%	Bubble	—	—	0.4206
47	Sun Valley	60%	Bubble	—	—	0.4151
48	Saint Stephens	59%	Bubble	—	—	0.4168
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Central Cabarrus	54%	Bubble	—	—	0.4102
50	Triton	52%	Bubble	—	—	0.4110
51	Olympic	41%	Bubble	—	—	0.4013
52	Felton Grove	32%	Bubble	—	—	0.3905
53	Harding University	27%	Bubble	—	—	0.3854
54	Lee County	17%	Bubble	—	—	0.3712
55	Western Guilford	17%	Bubble	—	—	0.3790
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
56	Southern Alamance	12%	Out	—	—	0.3732
57	Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	7%	Out	—	—	0.3562
58	Scotland	7%	Out	—	—	0.3553

48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16West Brunswick4117South View42South View 50% · at West Brunswick

9Union Pines4724Northern Nash35Union Pines 82% · at Union Pines

13Harnett Central4220Southern Lee39Harnett Central 58% · at Harnett Central

12Western Harnett3921East Chapel Hill42East Chapel Hill 60% · at Western Harnett

15Northern4018Franklinton42Franklinton 57% · at Northern

10E E Smith4723Middle Creek34E E Smith 83% · at E E Smith

14South Johnston3919White Oak42White Oak 59% · at South Johnston

11Williams4722Gray's Creek34Williams 85% · at Williams

Second Round

1Terry Sanford5317South View28Terry Sanford 96% · at Terry Sanford

8Swansboro419Union Pines40Swansboro 55% · at Swansboro

4Westover4813Harnett Central33Westover 86% · at Westover

5West Johnston4221East Chapel Hill39West Johnston 62% · at West Johnston

2Seventy-First4918Franklinton32Seventy-First 90% · at Seventy-First

7Junius H Rose3810E E Smith43E E Smith 66% · at Junius H Rose

3Jacksonville5019White Oak32Jacksonville 91% · at Jacksonville

6Vance County4011Williams42Williams 57% · at Vance County

Third Round

1Terry Sanford518Swansboro31Terry Sanford 93% · at Terry Sanford

4Westover455West Johnston37Westover 74% · at Westover

2Seventy-First4510E E Smith36Seventy-First 77% · at Seventy-First

3Jacksonville4311Williams38Jacksonville 67% · at Jacksonville

Fourth Round

1Terry Sanford464Westover35Terry Sanford 81% · at Terry Sanford

2Seventy-First423Jacksonville39Seventy-First 60% · at Seventy-First

Regional Final

1Terry Sanford432Seventy-First37Terry Sanford 69% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Glenn3817Southeast Guilford43Southeast Guilford 67% · at Glenn

9Mount Tabor4824Sun Valley34Mount Tabor 86% · at Mount Tabor

13Ben L. Smith4620Ashbrook35Ben L. Smith 80% · at Ben L. Smith

12Kings Mountain4021Asheville41Asheville 54% · at Kings Mountain

15Asheboro3818North Iredell43North Iredell 65% · at Asheboro

10Ragsdale4723Saint Stephens34Ragsdale 84% · at Ragsdale

14Piedmont4319Roberson38Piedmont 67% · at Piedmont

11South Caldwell4522Freedom37South Caldwell 74% · at South Caldwell

Second Round

1Reynolds5217Southeast Guilford29Reynolds 95% · at Reynolds

8Alexander Central419Mount Tabor40Alexander Central 53% · at Alexander Central

4Dudley4513Ben L. Smith37Dudley 74% · at Dudley

5Eastern Guilford4821Asheville33Eastern Guilford 88% · at Eastern Guilford

2Northern Guilford5318North Iredell28Northern Guilford 96% · at Northern Guilford

7Statesville4010Ragsdale41Ragsdale 53% · at Statesville

3Watauga4514Piedmont36Watauga 78% · at Watauga

6Charlotte Catholic4511South Caldwell37Charlotte Catholic 74% · at Charlotte Catholic

Third Round

1Reynolds478Alexander Central34Reynolds 84% · at Reynolds

4Dudley415Eastern Guilford42Eastern Guilford 50% · at Dudley

2Northern Guilford4910Ragsdale32Northern Guilford 89% · at Northern Guilford

3Watauga406Charlotte Catholic41Charlotte Catholic 52% · at Watauga

Fourth Round

1Reynolds455Eastern Guilford36Reynolds 76% · at Reynolds

2Northern Guilford456Charlotte Catholic36Northern Guilford 76% · at Northern Guilford

Regional Final

1Reynolds392Northern Guilford41Northern Guilford 56% · neutral site

State Championship

Terry Sanford40Northern Guilford41Northern Guilford 53% · neutral site

5A

Projected champion: North Lincoln

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
38	Saint Pauls	93%	In	—	—	0.4577
39	Erwin	91%	In	—	—	0.4500
40	Crest	89%	In	—	—	0.4520
On the bubble
41	Parkwood	85%	Bubble	—	—	0.4472
42	Cedar Ridge	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.4330
43	East Rowan	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.4353
44	J. F. Webb	79%	Bubble	—	—	0.4344
45	Northside	78%	Bubble	—	—	0.4388
46	Montgomery Central	76%	Bubble	—	—	0.4246
47	Southern Wayne	64%	Bubble	—	—	0.4162
48	Person	62%	Bubble	—	—	0.4129
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	North Henderson	61%	Bubble	—	—	0.4146
50	Richlands	45%	Bubble	—	—	0.4003
51	Fike	43%	Bubble	—	—	0.3967
52	Jay M Robinson	38%	Bubble	—	—	0.3907
53	Northeast Guilford	31%	Bubble	—	—	0.3851
54	Southern Guilford	24%	Bubble	—	—	0.3806
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55	High Point Central	7%	Out	—	—	0.3580
56	Forestview	5%	Out	—	—	0.3465
57	Concord	4%	Out	—	—	0.3446

48 of 59 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Southern Nash3917Hunt43Hunt 63% · at Southern Nash

9Seaforth4724Person34Seaforth 85% · at Seaforth

13South Granville4320Northside38South Granville 67% · at South Granville

12Orange4521J. F. Webb36Orange 78% · at Orange

15Havelock4118West Carteret42West Carteret 51% · at Havelock

10Charles B Aycock4923Southern Wayne32Charles B Aycock 90% · at Charles B Aycock

14Dixon4319Saint Pauls38Dixon 64% · at Dixon

11Durham School of the Arts4922Cedar Ridge39Durham School of the Arts 78% · at Durham School of the Arts

Second Round

1Eastern Alamance5417Hunt27Eastern Alamance 97% · at Eastern Alamance

8Western Alamance429Seaforth39Western Alamance 60% · at Western Alamance

4Southeast Alamance4913South Granville33Southeast Alamance 89% · at Southeast Alamance

5Rockingham County4412Orange37Rockingham County 70% · at Rockingham County

2Currituck County4818West Carteret33Currituck County 87% · at Currituck County

7South Brunswick4210Charles B Aycock40South Brunswick 57% · at South Brunswick

3Rocky Mount4714Dixon35Rocky Mount 83% · at Rocky Mount

6Croatan4611Durham School of the Arts42Croatan 60% · at Croatan

Third Round

1Eastern Alamance458Western Alamance36Eastern Alamance 76% · at Eastern Alamance

4Southeast Alamance435Rockingham County38Southeast Alamance 67% · at Southeast Alamance

2Currituck County397South Brunswick42South Brunswick 61% · at Currituck County

3Rocky Mount436Croatan38Rocky Mount 65% · at Rocky Mount

Fourth Round

1Eastern Alamance424Southeast Alamance40Eastern Alamance 57% · at Eastern Alamance

3Rocky Mount417South Brunswick40Rocky Mount 55% · at Rocky Mount

Regional Final

1Eastern Alamance453Rocky Mount36Eastern Alamance 77% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16South Point3917Smoky Mountain42Smoky Mountain 57% · at South Point

9West Rowan4824Montgomery Central33West Rowan 88% · at West Rowan

13North Forsyth Magnet4320Crest38North Forsyth Magnet 64% · at North Forsyth Magnet

12East Lincoln4521Erwin37East Lincoln 74% · at East Lincoln

15Carson3818North Davidson43North Davidson 66% · at Carson

10North Buncombe5023East Rowan31North Buncombe 92% · at North Buncombe

14Enka4219North Gaston39Enka 58% · at Enka

11Hickory5122Parkwood30Hickory 93% · at Hickory

Second Round

1North Lincoln5717Smoky Mountain24North Lincoln 98% · at North Lincoln

8Oak Grove419West Rowan40Oak Grove 55% · at Oak Grove

4Franklin4613North Forsyth Magnet35Franklin 80% · at Franklin

5Forest Hills4312East Lincoln39Forest Hills 63% · at Forest Hills

2Huss5018North Davidson31Huss 93% · at Huss

7Monroe4010North Buncombe42North Buncombe 56% · at Monroe

3Northwest Cabarrus4614Enka35Northwest Cabarrus 81% · at Northwest Cabarrus

6West Henderson3911Hickory43Hickory 62% · at West Henderson

Third Round

1North Lincoln508Oak Grove31North Lincoln 92% · at North Lincoln

4Franklin395Forest Hills42Forest Hills 58% · at Franklin

2Huss4410North Buncombe37Huss 69% · at Huss

3Northwest Cabarrus4111Hickory40Northwest Cabarrus 53% · at Northwest Cabarrus

Fourth Round

1North Lincoln495Forest Hills33North Lincoln 89% · at North Lincoln

2Huss423Northwest Cabarrus39Huss 58% · at Huss

Regional Final

1North Lincoln472Huss34North Lincoln 85% · neutral site

State Championship

North Lincoln44Eastern Alamance36North Lincoln 73% · neutral site

4A

Projected champion: Fairmont

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
40	Roanoke Rapids	87%	In	—	—	0.4550
41	Southwest	86%	In	—	—	0.4474
42	Washington	85%	In	—	—	0.4545
On the bubble
43	Graham	84%	Bubble	—	—	0.4508
44	R-S Central	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.4501
45	Carver	79%	Bubble	—	—	0.4388
46	Tuscola	77%	Bubble	—	—	0.4384
47	Bunker Hill	75%	Bubble	—	—	0.4332
48	Morehead	74%	Bubble	—	—	0.4359
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Eastern Wayne	45%	Bubble	—	—	0.4075
50	Jordan-Matthews	44%	Bubble	—	—	0.4064
51	West Craven	40%	Bubble	—	—	0.4043
52	Carrboro	35%	Bubble	—	—	0.3983
53	Red Springs	19%	Bubble	—	—	0.3824
54	East Gaston	18%	Bubble	—	—	0.3833
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55	Wilkes Central	5%	Out	—	—	0.3572
56	Brevard	3%	Out	—	—	0.3476
57	Central Academy of Technology and Arts	2%	Out	—	—	0.3407

48 of 59 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16North Lenoir4117North Pitt40North Lenoir 51% · at North Lenoir

9T Wingate Andrews5224Morehead29T Wingate Andrews 95% · at T Wingate Andrews

13North Johnston4520Washington36North Johnston 75% · at North Johnston

12Southwestern Randolph4121Graham42Graham 50% · at Southwestern Randolph

15Randleman4718Reidsville34Randleman 85% · at Randleman

10Uwharrie Charter Academy5023Carver32Uwharrie Charter Academy 91% · at Uwharrie Charter Academy

14Cummings5119Roanoke Rapids30Cummings 94% · at Cummings

11Central Davidson4622Southwest35Central Davidson 81% · at Central Davidson

Second Round

1SouthWest Edgecombe5116North Lenoir30SouthWest Edgecombe 94% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

8Bunn379T Wingate Andrews44T Wingate Andrews 71% · at Bunn

4Nash Central4613North Johnston36Nash Central 78% · at Nash Central

5First Flight4421Graham37First Flight 70% · at First Flight

2Fairmont4915Randleman32Fairmont 90% · at Fairmont

7Clinton4210Uwharrie Charter Academy40Clinton 56% · at Clinton

3Ledford4314Cummings38Ledford 67% · at Ledford

6East Duplin4211Central Davidson41East Duplin 51% · at East Duplin

Third Round

1SouthWest Edgecombe459T Wingate Andrews37SouthWest Edgecombe 74% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

4Nash Central435First Flight39Nash Central 63% · at Nash Central

2Fairmont487Clinton33Fairmont 87% · at Fairmont

3Ledford446East Duplin37Ledford 69% · at Ledford

Fourth Round

1SouthWest Edgecombe444Nash Central37SouthWest Edgecombe 69% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

2Fairmont433Ledford38Fairmont 64% · at Fairmont

Regional Final

1SouthWest Edgecombe392Fairmont41Fairmont 56% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16West Stokes3717Bandys44Bandys 72% · at West Stokes

9Forbush4524Bunker Hill36Forbush 77% · at Forbush

13Lexington4620West Stanly35Lexington 82% · at Lexington

12Lake Norman Charter4121East Henderson40Lake Norman Charter 52% · at Lake Norman Charter

15Newton-Conover4618South Rowan35Newton-Conover 81% · at Newton-Conover

10Pisgah4523Tuscola36Pisgah 76% · at Pisgah

14Salisbury4319Mount Pleasant39Salisbury 62% · at Salisbury

11Ashe County4722R-S Central34Ashe County 85% · at Ashe County

Second Round

1Stuart W Cramer4417Bandys37Stuart W Cramer 72% · at Stuart W Cramer

8Foard429Forbush39Foard 58% · at Foard

4Burns4113Lexington40Burns 55% · at Burns

5North Surry4612Lake Norman Charter35North Surry 80% · at North Surry

2Hibriten4315Newton-Conover38Hibriten 67% · at Hibriten

7East Burke4110Pisgah40East Burke 54% · at East Burke

3Maiden4914Salisbury32Maiden 90% · at Maiden

6Lincoln Charter4011Ashe County41Ashe County 54% · at Lincoln Charter

Third Round

1Stuart W Cramer398Foard42Foard 59% · at Stuart W Cramer

4Burns365North Surry45North Surry 75% · at Burns

2Hibriten417East Burke40Hibriten 52% · at Hibriten

3Maiden4411Ashe County37Maiden 72% · at Maiden

Fourth Round

5North Surry398Foard42Foard 58% · at North Surry

2Hibriten373Maiden44Maiden 71% · at Hibriten

Regional Final

3Maiden428Foard38Maiden 62% · neutral site

State Championship

Fairmont44Maiden36Fairmont 74% · neutral site

3A

Projected champion: North Wilkes

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
41	Mount Airy	92%	In	—	—	0.4370
42	Princeton	92%	In	—	—	0.4329
43	Greene Central	90%	In	—	—	0.4336
On the bubble
44	North Moore	76%	Bubble	—	—	0.4103
45	West Caldwell	65%	Bubble	—	—	0.3985
46	Patton	64%	Bubble	—	—	0.3978
47	South Lenoir	60%	Bubble	—	—	0.3923
48	Madison	55%	Bubble	—	—	0.3918
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Bartlett Yancey	52%	Bubble	—	—	0.3850
50	Spring Creek	50%	Bubble	—	—	0.3861
51	West Bladen	46%	Bubble	—	—	0.3826
52	South Columbus	34%	Bubble	—	—	0.3651
53	Eastern Randolph	26%	Bubble	—	—	0.3646
54	McMichael	18%	Bubble	—	—	0.3499
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55	Walkertown	5%	Out	—	—	0.3119
56	Owen	4%	Out	—	—	0.3300
57	Pender	2%	Out	—	—	0.3301

48 of 59 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Midway3917Louisburg Magnet43Louisburg Magnet 62% · at Midway

9Hertford County4924South Lenoir33Hertford County 89% · at Hertford County

13Heide Trask4620Trinity35Heide Trask 80% · at Heide Trask

12Wallace-Rose Hill4421Greene Central37Wallace-Rose Hill 72% · at Wallace-Rose Hill

15Beddingfield4218Pasquotank County40Beddingfield 56% · at Beddingfield

10Ayden-Grifton4623North Moore35Ayden-Grifton 81% · at Ayden-Grifton

14Martin County4319Whiteville38Martin County 66% · at Martin County

11Farmville Central4422Princeton37Farmville Central 71% · at Farmville Central

Second Round

1Kinston5317Louisburg Magnet29Kinston 96% · at Kinston

8Northwood419Hertford County40Northwood 55% · at Northwood

4Wake Preparatory Academy4313Heide Trask39Wake Preparatory Academy 62% · at Wake Preparatory Academy

5Northeastern4312Wallace-Rose Hill38Northeastern 66% · at Northeastern

2James Kenan4815Beddingfield33James Kenan 86% · at James Kenan

7NCSSM: Durham3610Ayden-Grifton38Ayden-Grifton 57% · at NCSSM: Durham

3Goldsboro4714Martin County34Goldsboro 86% · at Goldsboro

6Providence Grove4311Farmville Central39Providence Grove 63% · at Providence Grove

Third Round

1Kinston478Northwood35Kinston 82% · at Kinston

4Wake Preparatory Academy405Northeastern41Northeastern 56% · at Wake Preparatory Academy

2James Kenan4710Ayden-Grifton34James Kenan 84% · at James Kenan

3Goldsboro436Providence Grove38Goldsboro 64% · at Goldsboro

Fourth Round

1Kinston465Northeastern36Kinston 78% · at Kinston

2James Kenan393Goldsboro42Goldsboro 57% · at James Kenan

Regional Final

1Kinston443Goldsboro37Kinston 72% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16West Wilkes4317East Davidson38West Wilkes 65% · at West Wilkes

9Bessemer City4624Madison36Bessemer City 79% · at Bessemer City

13Draughn4320Pine Lake Preparatory38Draughn 65% · at Draughn

12Piedmont Community Charter3921Mount Airy38Piedmont Community Charter 50% · at Piedmont Community Charter

15Union Academy4018East Rutherford41East Rutherford 51% · at Union Academy

10Polk County4723Patton34Polk County 85% · at Polk County

14Shelby4319West Lincoln39Shelby 62% · at Shelby

11North Stanly4422West Caldwell38North Stanly 68% · at North Stanly

Second Round

1North Wilkes5016West Wilkes32North Wilkes 91% · at North Wilkes

8West Davidson409Bessemer City41Bessemer City 55% · at West Davidson

4Surry Central4613Draughn35Surry Central 81% · at Surry Central

5East Surry4412Piedmont Community Charter32East Surry 83% · at East Surry

2Hendersonville5018East Rutherford31Hendersonville 92% · at Hendersonville

7Wheatmore3910Polk County42Polk County 60% · at Wheatmore

3Lincolnton4614Shelby36Lincolnton 78% · at Lincolnton

6Mountain Heritage4611North Stanly35Mountain Heritage 81% · at Mountain Heritage

Third Round

1North Wilkes499Bessemer City32North Wilkes 89% · at North Wilkes

4Surry Central405East Surry42East Surry 56% · at Surry Central

2Hendersonville4410Polk County37Hendersonville 71% · at Hendersonville

3Lincolnton396Mountain Heritage43Mountain Heritage 63% · at Lincolnton

Fourth Round

1North Wilkes435East Surry38North Wilkes 66% · at North Wilkes

2Hendersonville416Mountain Heritage40Hendersonville 52% · at Hendersonville

Regional Final

1North Wilkes442Hendersonville37North Wilkes 72% · neutral site

State Championship

Kinston40North Wilkes41North Wilkes 55% · neutral site

2A

Projected champion: Cherokee

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
39	Sugar Creek Charter	93%	In	—	—	0.4135
40	American Leadership Academy - Johnston	92%	In	—	—	0.4144
41	Elkin	88%	In	—	—	0.4038
On the bubble
42	Rosewood	84%	Bubble	—	—	0.4005
43	Voyager Academy	80%	Bubble	—	—	0.3947
44	Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy	77%	Bubble	—	—	0.3962
45	Langtree Charter Academy	73%	Bubble	—	—	0.3867
46	Northampton County	58%	Bubble	—	—	0.3727
47	Research Triangle	55%	Bubble	—	—	0.3690
48	Lejeune	49%	Bubble	—	—	0.3646
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	East Wake Academy	46%	Bubble	—	—	0.3616
50	Tarboro	41%	Bubble	—	—	0.3560
51	South Stanly	36%	Bubble	—	—	0.3523
52	Perquimans County	34%	Bubble	—	—	0.3530
53	Piedmont Classical	26%	Bubble	—	—	0.3444
54	West Columbus	22%	Bubble	—	—	0.3372
55	Corvian Community	21%	Bubble	—	—	0.3393
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
56	Gray Stone Day	14%	Out	—	—	0.3308
57	Alleghany	12%	Out	—	—	0.3265
58	Cherryville	11%	Out	—	—	0.3349

48 of 59 2A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Bertie3917Holmes42Holmes 58% · at Bertie

9Manteo5024Lejeune31Manteo 93% · at Manteo

13Southside4420Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy37Southside 72% · at Southside

12Raleigh Charter4521Voyager Academy36Raleigh Charter 77% · at Raleigh Charter

15Union4218American Leadership Academy - Johnston39Union 59% · at Union

10East Carteret5123Research Triangle30East Carteret 93% · at East Carteret

14Triangle Math and Science Academy3819Rosewood43Rosewood 64% · at Triangle Math and Science Academy

11Camden County4822Northampton County33Camden County 88% · at Camden County

Second Round

1Pamlico County5417Holmes27Pamlico County 97% · at Pamlico County

8Henderson Collegiate389Manteo43Manteo 65% · at Henderson Collegiate

4Warren County4813Southside33Warren County 88% · at Warren County

5North Duplin Jr Sr4712Raleigh Charter35North Duplin Jr Sr 83% · at North Duplin Jr Sr

2Lakewood5115Union31Lakewood 93% · at Lakewood

7East Bladen4210East Carteret40East Bladen 57% · at East Bladen

3Franklin Academy4919Rosewood29Franklin Academy 93% · at Franklin Academy

6Gates County4311Camden County39Gates County 62% · at Gates County

Third Round

1Pamlico County499Manteo32Pamlico County 89% · at Pamlico County

4Warren County415North Duplin Jr Sr40Warren County 53% · at Warren County

2Lakewood457East Bladen36Lakewood 75% · at Lakewood

3Franklin Academy416Gates County38Franklin Academy 60% · at Franklin Academy

Fourth Round

1Pamlico County444Warren County37Pamlico County 72% · at Pamlico County

2Lakewood403Franklin Academy39Lakewood 54% · at Lakewood

Regional Final

1Pamlico County432Lakewood37Pamlico County 69% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16North Rowan4017Mitchell42Mitchell 57% · at North Rowan

9Hayesville5224Langtree Charter Academy29Hayesville 95% · at Hayesville

13Highland Tech4420Bradford Preparatory38Highland Tech 68% · at Highland Tech

12Murphy5321Eno River Academy28Murphy 96% · at Murphy

15South Stokes4118Swain County40South Stokes 51% · at South Stokes

10Mountain Island Charter4723Elkin35Mountain Island Charter 82% · at Mountain Island Charter

14Cornerstone Charter Academy3319Starmount48Starmount 87% · at Cornerstone Charter Academy

11Albemarle4622Sugar Creek Charter35Albemarle 82% · at Albemarle

Second Round

1Cherokee5917Mitchell22Cherokee 98% · at Cherokee

8Avery County419Hayesville40Avery County 55% · at Avery County

4Bishop McGuinness4913Highland Tech32Bishop McGuinness 89% · at Bishop McGuinness

5Roxboro Community4012Murphy41Murphy 55% · at Roxboro Community

2Queen's Grant Community5315South Stokes29Queen's Grant Community 96% · at Queen's Grant Community

7Community School of Davidson4310Mountain Island Charter38Community School of Davidson 67% · at Community School of Davidson

3Christ the King4819Starmount33Christ the King 88% · at Christ the King

6East Wilkes4711Albemarle34East Wilkes 84% · at East Wilkes

Third Round

1Cherokee518Avery County30Cherokee 93% · at Cherokee

4Bishop McGuinness4512Murphy37Bishop McGuinness 74% · at Bishop McGuinness

2Queen's Grant Community457Community School of Davidson37Queen's Grant Community 74% · at Queen's Grant Community

3Christ the King396East Wilkes42East Wilkes 61% · at Christ the King

Fourth Round

1Cherokee494Bishop McGuinness32Cherokee 90% · at Cherokee

2Queen's Grant Community446East Wilkes38Queen's Grant Community 68% · at Queen's Grant Community

Regional Final

1Cherokee472Queen's Grant Community35Cherokee 81% · neutral site

State Championship

Cherokee50Pamlico County30Cherokee 93% · neutral site

1A

Projected champion: Wilson Preparatory Academy

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
39	Woods Charter	95%	In	—	—	0.3825
40	North Edgecombe	94%	In	—	—	0.3835
41	Ocracoke	90%	In	—	—	0.3835
On the bubble
42	Southern Wake Academy	83%	Bubble	—	—	0.3626
43	Blue Ridge Early College	80%	Bubble	—	—	0.3526
44	Sallie B Howard	70%	Bubble	—	—	0.3561
45	Carolina International	68%	Bubble	—	—	0.3439
46	KIPP Pride	65%	Bubble	—	—	0.3450
47	Excelsior Classical Academy	61%	Bubble	—	—	0.4447
48	Triad Math and Science Academy	58%	Bubble	—	—	0.3316
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Central Carolina Academy	56%	Bubble	—	—	0.3307
50	NCSSM: Morganton	52%	Bubble	—	—	0.3248
51	Weldon STEM	51%	Bubble	—	—	0.3294
52	Mattamuskeet	41%	Bubble	—	—	0.3189
53	South Davidson Middle and	29%	Bubble	—	—	0.3131
54	Nantahala	21%	Bubble	—	—	0.2556

48 of 54 1A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Rocky Mount Preparatory4017North East Carolina Prep42North East Carolina Prep 57% · at Rocky Mount Preparatory

9Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy4924KIPP Pride32Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 91% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy

13Hobgood Charter4220Ocracoke39Hobgood Charter 61% · at Hobgood Charter

12Oxford Preparatory4621Woods Charter35Oxford Preparatory 79% · at Oxford Preparatory

15Columbia4318Jones39Columbia 62% · at Columbia

10Ascend Leadership Academy: Lee County4423Sallie B Howard37Ascend Leadership Academy: Lee County 69% · at Ascend Leadership Academy: Lee County

14Excelsior Classical Academy4219North Edgecombe41Excelsior Classical Academy 50% · at Excelsior Classical Academy

11Cape Hatteras Secondary5122Southern Wake Academy31Cape Hatteras Secondary 93% · at Cape Hatteras Secondary

Second Round

1Falls Lake Academy5817North East Carolina Prep23Falls Lake Academy 98% · at Falls Lake Academy

8Bear Grass Charter419Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy40Bear Grass Charter 53% · at Bear Grass Charter

4Washington County5013Hobgood Charter31Washington County 91% · at Washington County

5Northside4812Oxford Preparatory33Northside 87% · at Northside

2Neuse Charter4715Columbia34Neuse Charter 84% · at Neuse Charter

7East Columbus Junior-Senior4810Ascend Leadership Academy: Lee County33East Columbus Junior-Senior 88% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior

3Wilson Preparatory Academy5914Excelsior Classical Academy22Wilson Preparatory Academy 98% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

6Vance Charter4611Cape Hatteras Secondary36Vance Charter 78% · at Vance Charter

Third Round

1Falls Lake Academy528Bear Grass Charter29Falls Lake Academy 95% · at Falls Lake Academy

4Washington County415Northside40Washington County 51% · at Washington County

2Neuse Charter407East Columbus Junior-Senior42East Columbus Junior-Senior 57% · at Neuse Charter

3Wilson Preparatory Academy496Vance Charter32Wilson Preparatory Academy 90% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

Fourth Round

1Falls Lake Academy464Washington County36Falls Lake Academy 79% · at Falls Lake Academy

3Wilson Preparatory Academy507East Columbus Junior-Senior31Wilson Preparatory Academy 93% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

Regional Final

1Falls Lake Academy393Wilson Preparatory Academy42Wilson Preparatory Academy 61% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy4417Discovery Charter School37Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy 70% · at Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy

9Chatham Charter4924Triad Math and Science Academy32Chatham Charter 91% · at Chatham Charter

13North Stokes4920The North Carolina Leadership Academy32North Stokes 89% · at North Stokes

12Hiwassee Dam5421Millennium Charter Academy27Hiwassee Dam 97% · at Hiwassee Dam

15Chatham Central4818River Mill Academy33Chatham Central 87% · at Chatham Central

10Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad4823Carolina International33Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 87% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad

14Clover Garden3619Rosman45Rosman 75% · at Clover Garden

11Highlands4922Blue Ridge Early College32Highlands 90% · at Highlands

Second Round

1Jackson Day4916Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy37Jackson Day 83% · at Jackson Day

8Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy469Chatham Charter35Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 81% · at Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy

4Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper3913North Stokes42North Stokes 59% · at Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper

5Summit Charter4212Hiwassee Dam39Summit Charter 58% · at Summit Charter

2College Prep and Leadership Academy4715Chatham Central34College Prep and Leadership Academy 85% · at College Prep and Leadership Academy

7Bethany Community3810Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad43Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 63% · at Bethany Community

3Andrews4919Rosman32Andrews 90% · at Andrews

6Robbinsville4211Highlands39Robbinsville 58% · at Robbinsville

Third Round

1Jackson Day458Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy41Jackson Day 62% · at Jackson Day

5Summit Charter4613North Stokes36Summit Charter 78% · at Summit Charter

2College Prep and Leadership Academy4610Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad35College Prep and Leadership Academy 80% · at College Prep and Leadership Academy

3Andrews406Robbinsville41Robbinsville 53% · at Andrews

Fourth Round

1Jackson Day425Summit Charter43Summit Charter 53% · at Jackson Day

2College Prep and Leadership Academy406Robbinsville41Robbinsville 56% · at College Prep and Leadership Academy

Regional Final

5Summit Charter416Robbinsville40Summit Charter 54% · neutral site

State Championship

Wilson Preparatory Academy46Summit Charter35Wilson Preparatory Academy 81% · neutral site