2026-27 NCHSAA Boys Basketball Playoff Projections

Week 1. The 4,711 regular-season games left before February 19 were played out 1,000 times, each won with the chance our ratings give it, and the field drawn by RPI every time. A team's playoff chance is how often it made the field; its projected RPI is its average final RPI. The bracket is the most likely path: the teams most likely to make the field, seeded on projected RPI, every game going to the team our ratings favor, with the score they predict. There are 48 teams in each class and 24 in 8A, split East and West by longitude. The higher seed hosts through the fourth round; the regional final and the state final are at set sites. We are assuming February 19 is the last day that counts; the NCHSAA's calendar for this season may differ. RPI here is ours, computed with NCHSAA's formula; seeding uses the association's own figures.

8A

Projected champion: West Forsyth

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
18	Hough	94%	In	—	—	0.5452
19	Northwest Guilford	92%	In	—	—	0.5413
20	Enloe	91%	In	—	—	0.5399
On the bubble
21	Providence	83%	Bubble	—	—	0.5295
22	Green Level	79%	Bubble	—	—	0.5196
23	East Mecklenburg	70%	Bubble	—	—	0.5071
24	Hoke County	50%	Bubble	—	—	0.4905
Projected cut · top 24 make the field
25	South Mecklenburg	43%	Bubble	—	—	0.4814
26	Apex	38%	Bubble	—	—	0.4778
27	Green Hope	31%	Bubble	—	—	0.4711
28	Palisades	31%	Bubble	—	—	0.4706
29	Mallard Creek	23%	Bubble	—	—	0.4628
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
30	Garinger	2%	Out	—	—	0.4149
31	Athens Drive	0%	Out	—	—	0.3739
32	Corinth Holders	0%	Out	—	—	0.3586

24 of 32 8A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 24 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

24 teams, 16-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Rolesville599Millbrook54Rolesville 65% · at Rolesville

5Wakefield6312Green Level50Wakefield 84% · at Wakefield

7Panther Creek5910Willow Spring54Panther Creek 64% · at Panther Creek

6Leesville Road6111Enloe52Leesville Road 76% · at Leesville Road

Second Round

1Apex Friendship628Rolesville50Apex Friendship 82% · at Apex Friendship

4Broughton605Wakefield52Broughton 73% · at Broughton

2Hoggard617Panther Creek51Hoggard 78% · at Hoggard

3Laney586Leesville Road54Laney 61% · at Laney

Third Round

1Apex Friendship604Broughton53Apex Friendship 70% · at Apex Friendship

2Hoggard603Laney53Hoggard 69% · at Hoggard

Regional Final

1Apex Friendship592Hoggard55Apex Friendship 61% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-4

8Hough619Northwest Guilford52Hough 76% · at Hough

5Chambers6812Hoke County45Chambers 94% · at Chambers

7Jordan6010Providence53Jordan 71% · at Jordan

6Pinecrest5911East Mecklenburg54Pinecrest 64% · at Pinecrest

Second Round

1West Forsyth668Hough46West Forsyth 92% · at West Forsyth

4Ardrey Kell565Chambers57Chambers 50% · at Ardrey Kell

2Myers Park657Jordan48Myers Park 89% · at Myers Park

3West Charlotte676Pinecrest46West Charlotte 93% · at West Charlotte

Third Round

1West Forsyth635Chambers50West Forsyth 83% · at West Forsyth

2Myers Park583West Charlotte54Myers Park 62% · at Myers Park

Regional Final

1West Forsyth572Myers Park56West Forsyth 54% · neutral site

State Championship

West Forsyth59Apex Friendship55West Forsyth 63% · neutral site

7A

Projected champion: Southern School of Energy and Sustainability

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
41	Riverside	87%	In	—	—	0.4888
42	Grimsley	86%	In	—	—	0.4918
43	Hopewell	85%	In	—	—	0.4882
On the bubble
44	Holly Springs	83%	Bubble	—	—	0.4840
45	Clayton	73%	Bubble	—	—	0.4727
46	Cuthbertson	69%	Bubble	—	—	0.4663
47	Cary	68%	Bubble	—	—	0.4642
48	Fuquay-Varina	57%	Bubble	—	—	0.4540
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Pine Forest	40%	Bubble	—	—	0.4390
50	Smithfield-Selma	39%	Bubble	—	—	0.4364
51	Rocky River	38%	Bubble	—	—	0.4350
52	East Wake	30%	Bubble	—	—	0.4297
53	Purnell Swett	29%	Bubble	—	—	0.4243
54	Ashley	22%	Bubble	—	—	0.4173
55	Ballantyne Ridge	15%	Bubble	—	—	0.4084
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
56	South Iredell	10%	Out	—	—	0.3992
57	Porter Ridge	9%	Out	—	—	0.4006
58	Topsail	5%	Out	—	—	0.3903

48 of 60 7A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16South Garner6017D H Conley52South Garner 73% · at South Garner

9Sanderson6424Fuquay-Varina48Sanderson 88% · at Sanderson

13North Brunswick5920Riverside54North Brunswick 66% · at North Brunswick

12Heritage6221Holly Springs51Heritage 80% · at Heritage

15Overhills6018Cape Fear52Overhills 74% · at Overhills

10Garner6423Cary48Garner 88% · at Garner

14Hillside6119Cleveland52Hillside 75% · at Hillside

11New Bern6122Clayton52New Bern 75% · at New Bern

Second Round

1Southern School of Energy and Sustainability6916South Garner44Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 96% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability

8Wake Forest579Sanderson56Wake Forest 54% · at Wake Forest

4New Hanover6413North Brunswick48New Hanover 88% · at New Hanover

5South Central6012Heritage53South Central 70% · at South Central

2Cardinal Gibbons6815Overhills45Cardinal Gibbons 94% · at Cardinal Gibbons

7Lumberton5610Garner57Garner 53% · at Lumberton

3Knightdale6414Hillside49Knightdale 87% · at Knightdale

6Southeast Raleigh6211New Bern50Southeast Raleigh 81% · at Southeast Raleigh

Third Round

1Southern School of Energy and Sustainability668Wake Forest46Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 93% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability

4New Hanover605South Central52New Hanover 73% · at New Hanover

2Cardinal Gibbons6310Garner50Cardinal Gibbons 84% · at Cardinal Gibbons

3Knightdale616Southeast Raleigh51Knightdale 78% · at Knightdale

Fourth Round

1Southern School of Energy and Sustainability644New Hanover49Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 86% · at Southern School of Energy and Sustainability

2Cardinal Gibbons593Knightdale53Cardinal Gibbons 68% · at Cardinal Gibbons

Regional Final

1Southern School of Energy and Sustainability592Cardinal Gibbons54Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 65% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16East Forsyth5817Lake Norman55East Forsyth 61% · at East Forsyth

9Jack Britt6224Cuthbertson50Jack Britt 82% · at Jack Britt

13Marvin Ridge6020West Cabarrus52Marvin Ridge 73% · at Marvin Ridge

12Davie County6021West Mecklenburg53Davie County 71% · at Davie County

15Page6018Richmond53Page 71% · at Page

10Cox Mill6223Hopewell51Cox Mill 80% · at Cox Mill

14Reagan5719Butler56Reagan 50% · at Reagan

11Chapel Hill6322Grimsley50Chapel Hill 84% · at Chapel Hill

Second Round

1Hickory Ridge6516East Forsyth48Hickory Ridge 89% · at Hickory Ridge

8R J Reynolds599Jack Britt54R J Reynolds 65% · at R J Reynolds

4Independence6313Marvin Ridge49Independence 86% · at Independence

5Mooresville6312Davie County50Mooresville 83% · at Mooresville

2North Mecklenburg6615Page47North Mecklenburg 91% · at North Mecklenburg

7McDowell5510Cox Mill58Cox Mill 59% · at McDowell

3Southwest Guilford6114Reagan52Southwest Guilford 75% · at Southwest Guilford

6Weddington6111Chapel Hill51Weddington 78% · at Weddington

Third Round

1Hickory Ridge638R J Reynolds49Hickory Ridge 85% · at Hickory Ridge

4Independence605Mooresville53Independence 70% · at Independence

2North Mecklenburg6510Cox Mill48North Mecklenburg 89% · at North Mecklenburg

3Southwest Guilford576Weddington56Southwest Guilford 54% · at Southwest Guilford

Fourth Round

1Hickory Ridge584Independence54Hickory Ridge 61% · at Hickory Ridge

2North Mecklenburg633Southwest Guilford49North Mecklenburg 85% · at North Mecklenburg

Regional Final

1Hickory Ridge552North Mecklenburg59North Mecklenburg 63% · neutral site

State Championship

Southern School of Energy and Sustainability58North Mecklenburg56Southern School of Energy and Sustainability 56% · neutral site

6A

Projected champion: Mount Tabor

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
38	Triton	93%	In	—	—	0.4741
39	South Johnston	89%	In	—	—	0.4639
40	Southeast Guilford	85%	In	—	—	0.4596
On the bubble
41	East Chapel Hill	84%	Bubble	—	—	0.4561
42	Franklinton	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.4508
43	Piedmont	74%	Bubble	—	—	0.4442
44	Jacksonville	63%	Bubble	—	—	0.4327
45	Ragsdale	62%	Bubble	—	—	0.4313
46	Northern	62%	Bubble	—	—	0.4322
47	Glenn	57%	Bubble	—	—	0.4252
48	Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	53%	Bubble	—	—	0.4201
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Eastern Guilford	51%	Bubble	—	—	0.4192
50	Sun Valley	50%	Bubble	—	—	0.4192
51	Scotland	45%	Bubble	—	—	0.4126
52	Vance County	44%	Bubble	—	—	0.4125
53	Asheville	41%	Bubble	—	—	0.4101
54	Western Harnett	32%	Bubble	—	—	0.4007
55	Union Pines	29%	Bubble	—	—	0.3992
56	North Iredell	15%	Bubble	—	—	0.3775
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
57	Gray's Creek	12%	Out	—	—	0.3714
58	Felton Grove	4%	Out	—	—	0.3638

48 of 58 6A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Williams5717South View55Williams 55% · at Williams

9Middle Creek6624Northern47Middle Creek 91% · at Middle Creek

13Terry Sanford5920Southeast Guilford53Terry Sanford 67% · at Terry Sanford

12West Brunswick6121East Chapel Hill52West Brunswick 77% · at West Brunswick

15Westover6318Triton50Westover 84% · at Westover

10Southern Alamance6223Jacksonville51Southern Alamance 80% · at Southern Alamance

14West Johnston6119South Johnston51West Johnston 78% · at West Johnston

11Lee County5922Franklinton54Lee County 65% · at Lee County

Second Round

1Junius H Rose6716Williams45Junius H Rose 94% · at Junius H Rose

8Swansboro579Middle Creek56Swansboro 50% · at Swansboro

4Southern Lee6013Terry Sanford53Southern Lee 72% · at Southern Lee

5Harnett Central5912West Brunswick54Harnett Central 66% · at Harnett Central

2White Oak6315Westover50White Oak 83% · at White Oak

7Seventy-First6210Southern Alamance51Seventy-First 79% · at Seventy-First

3E E Smith6614West Johnston47E E Smith 92% · at E E Smith

6Northern Nash6411Lee County48Northern Nash 88% · at Northern Nash

Third Round

1Junius H Rose658Swansboro48Junius H Rose 90% · at Junius H Rose

4Southern Lee585Harnett Central55Southern Lee 60% · at Southern Lee

2White Oak607Seventy-First53White Oak 69% · at White Oak

3E E Smith606Northern Nash52E E Smith 72% · at E E Smith

Fourth Round

1Junius H Rose644Southern Lee48Junius H Rose 88% · at Junius H Rose

2White Oak573E E Smith55White Oak 57% · at White Oak

Regional Final

1Junius H Rose592White Oak54Junius H Rose 65% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Alexander Central5317Olympic59Olympic 67% · at Alexander Central

9Dudley6224Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology51Dudley 80% · at Dudley

13Harding University6220Northern Guilford51Harding University 81% · at Harding University

12Asheboro6121Piedmont52Asheboro 76% · at Asheboro

15Saint Stephens5518Ashbrook58Ashbrook 61% · at Saint Stephens

10Watauga6423Glenn49Watauga 86% · at Watauga

14Central Cabarrus6219Statesville51Central Cabarrus 80% · at Central Cabarrus

11Roberson6022Ragsdale53Roberson 72% · at Roberson

Second Round

1Freedom6117Olympic52Freedom 75% · at Freedom

8Reynolds579Dudley56Reynolds 53% · at Reynolds

4Ben L. Smith6113Harding University51Ben L. Smith 78% · at Ben L. Smith

5Western Guilford6312Asheboro49Western Guilford 85% · at Western Guilford

2Mount Tabor6518Ashbrook48Mount Tabor 90% · at Mount Tabor

7South Caldwell6010Watauga52South Caldwell 74% · at South Caldwell

3Kings Mountain6214Central Cabarrus51Kings Mountain 80% · at Kings Mountain

6Charlotte Catholic6411Roberson49Charlotte Catholic 87% · at Charlotte Catholic

Third Round

1Freedom628Reynolds51Freedom 81% · at Freedom

4Ben L. Smith605Western Guilford53Ben L. Smith 70% · at Ben L. Smith

2Mount Tabor667South Caldwell47Mount Tabor 91% · at Mount Tabor

3Kings Mountain596Charlotte Catholic53Kings Mountain 68% · at Kings Mountain

Fourth Round

1Freedom574Ben L. Smith56Freedom 52% · at Freedom

2Mount Tabor603Kings Mountain53Mount Tabor 69% · at Mount Tabor

Regional Final

1Freedom542Mount Tabor59Mount Tabor 66% · neutral site

State Championship

Junius H Rose56Mount Tabor57Mount Tabor 52% · neutral site

5A

Projected champion: Huss

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
40	Northwest Cabarrus	87%	In	—	—	0.4713
41	Seaforth	87%	In	—	—	0.4593
42	South Brunswick	85%	In	—	—	0.4739
On the bubble
43	Rockingham County	85%	Bubble	—	—	0.4623
44	Concord	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.4568
45	North Buncombe	79%	Bubble	—	—	0.4573
46	West Rowan	76%	Bubble	—	—	0.4499
47	East Rowan	73%	Bubble	—	—	0.4453
48	North Davidson	72%	Bubble	—	—	0.4428
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Forestview	70%	Bubble	—	—	0.4439
50	Erwin	64%	Bubble	—	—	0.4382
51	North Gaston	25%	Bubble	—	—	0.4035
52	Enka	25%	Bubble	—	—	0.3983
53	Cedar Ridge	15%	Bubble	—	—	0.3846
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
54	Saint Pauls	15%	Out	—	—	0.3851
55	Southern Nash	12%	Out	—	—	0.3854
56	Richlands	10%	Out	—	—	0.3803

48 of 59 5A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Southern Guilford6017Havelock53Southern Guilford 69% · at Southern Guilford

9Northeast Guilford6524Seaforth48Northeast Guilford 89% · at Northeast Guilford

13Orange6120South Brunswick51Orange 78% · at Orange

12West Carteret6021Western Alamance53West Carteret 72% · at West Carteret

15Douglas Byrd6118Currituck County51Douglas Byrd 78% · at Douglas Byrd

10Charles B Aycock6423Rockingham County48Charles B Aycock 88% · at Charles B Aycock

14J. F. Webb5819Dixon54J. F. Webb 63% · at J. F. Webb

11Northside6122Southern Wayne51Northside 78% · at Northside

Second Round

1Eastern Alamance6516Southern Guilford48Eastern Alamance 89% · at Eastern Alamance

8Rocky Mount599Northeast Guilford53Rocky Mount 69% · at Rocky Mount

4South Granville6213Orange50South Granville 81% · at South Granville

5Fike6512West Carteret48Fike 90% · at Fike

2Southeast Alamance6415Douglas Byrd49Southeast Alamance 86% · at Southeast Alamance

7Person5710Charles B Aycock56Person 51% · at Person

3Hunt6714J. F. Webb45Hunt 94% · at Hunt

6Croatan6111Northside52Croatan 76% · at Croatan

Third Round

1Eastern Alamance628Rocky Mount51Eastern Alamance 80% · at Eastern Alamance

4South Granville555Fike58Fike 59% · at South Granville

2Southeast Alamance647Person49Southeast Alamance 86% · at Southeast Alamance

3Hunt626Croatan51Hunt 80% · at Hunt

Fourth Round

1Eastern Alamance585Fike54Eastern Alamance 63% · at Eastern Alamance

2Southeast Alamance573Hunt56Southeast Alamance 54% · at Southeast Alamance

Regional Final

1Eastern Alamance582Southeast Alamance56Eastern Alamance 57% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Oak Grove6217West Henderson50Oak Grove 81% · at Oak Grove

9Jay M Robinson6924North Davidson44Jay M Robinson 96% · at Jay M Robinson

13Monroe6320North Buncombe50Monroe 84% · at Monroe

12Parkwood6221Concord50Parkwood 81% · at Parkwood

15Forest Hills6418Atkins49Forest Hills 86% · at Forest Hills

10High Point Central6523East Rowan47High Point Central 91% · at High Point Central

14Smoky Mountain5719Northwest Cabarrus55Smoky Mountain 57% · at Smoky Mountain

11South Point6422West Rowan49South Point 87% · at South Point

Second Round

1Huss7016Oak Grove42Huss 97% · at Huss

8North Henderson549Jay M Robinson58Jay M Robinson 61% · at North Henderson

4North Lincoln6613Monroe47North Lincoln 91% · at North Lincoln

5Carson6412Parkwood49Carson 86% · at Carson

2Hickory6615Forest Hills47Hickory 92% · at Hickory

7Crest6010High Point Central52Crest 73% · at Crest

3Franklin6614Smoky Mountain47Franklin 91% · at Franklin

6East Lincoln6111South Point52East Lincoln 76% · at East Lincoln

Third Round

1Huss659Jay M Robinson48Huss 90% · at Huss

4North Lincoln595Carson54North Lincoln 66% · at North Lincoln

2Hickory637Crest50Hickory 84% · at Hickory

3Franklin586East Lincoln55Franklin 59% · at Franklin

Fourth Round

1Huss624North Lincoln50Huss 81% · at Huss

2Hickory623Franklin50Hickory 82% · at Hickory

Regional Final

1Huss592Hickory54Huss 66% · neutral site

State Championship

Huss62Eastern Alamance52Huss 77% · neutral site

4A

Projected champion: Reidsville

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
38	North Pitt	92%	In	—	—	0.4530
39	Lexington	90%	In	—	—	0.4532
40	Newton-Conover	87%	In	—	—	0.4457
On the bubble
41	West Iredell	79%	Bubble	—	—	0.4323
42	North Lenoir	78%	Bubble	—	—	0.4345
43	East Gaston	77%	Bubble	—	—	0.4276
44	Graham	76%	Bubble	—	—	0.4335
45	R-S Central	68%	Bubble	—	—	0.4226
46	Ashe County	64%	Bubble	—	—	0.4180
47	Cummings	58%	Bubble	—	—	0.4123
48	Forbush	58%	Bubble	—	—	0.4106
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Bunker Hill	47%	Bubble	—	—	0.4008
50	West Craven	46%	Bubble	—	—	0.4010
51	Morehead	44%	Bubble	—	—	0.3990
52	West Stanly	43%	Bubble	—	—	0.3975
53	North Johnston	32%	Bubble	—	—	0.3836
54	Carrboro	24%	Bubble	—	—	0.3807
55	South Rowan	23%	Bubble	—	—	0.3787
56	Foard	16%	Bubble	—	—	0.3735
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
57	Central Academy of Technology and Arts	7%	Out	—	—	0.3510
58	Red Springs	7%	Out	—	—	0.3493
59	Tuscola	3%	Out	—	—	0.3490

48 of 59 4A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Carver5717Fairmont56Carver 52% · at Carver

9Clinton6324Cummings49Clinton 85% · at Clinton

13Jordan-Matthews5920Anson54Jordan-Matthews 66% · at Jordan-Matthews

12Roanoke Rapids5921North Pitt53Roanoke Rapids 68% · at Roanoke Rapids

15Ledford6018Nash Central53Ledford 71% · at Ledford

10Uwharrie Charter Academy6223Graham50Uwharrie Charter Academy 82% · at Uwharrie Charter Academy

14Randleman6219East Duplin50Randleman 82% · at Randleman

11Bunn6122North Lenoir52Bunn 75% · at Bunn

Second Round

1Reidsville6916Carver44Reidsville 96% · at Reidsville

8SouthWest Edgecombe619Clinton51SouthWest Edgecombe 77% · at SouthWest Edgecombe

4First Flight6313Jordan-Matthews50First Flight 84% · at First Flight

5Southwestern Randolph6012Roanoke Rapids53Southwestern Randolph 71% · at Southwestern Randolph

2Washington6115Ledford52Washington 77% · at Washington

7Eastern Wayne6210Uwharrie Charter Academy51Eastern Wayne 81% · at Eastern Wayne

3T Wingate Andrews6314Randleman50T Wingate Andrews 84% · at T Wingate Andrews

6Southwest6111Bunn52Southwest 77% · at Southwest

Third Round

1Reidsville658SouthWest Edgecombe47Reidsville 90% · at Reidsville

4First Flight615Southwestern Randolph52First Flight 74% · at First Flight

2Washington587Eastern Wayne54Washington 62% · at Washington

3T Wingate Andrews626Southwest51T Wingate Andrews 81% · at T Wingate Andrews

Fourth Round

1Reidsville644First Flight48Reidsville 88% · at Reidsville

2Washington563T Wingate Andrews57T Wingate Andrews 51% · at Washington

Regional Final

1Reidsville603T Wingate Andrews54Reidsville 67% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Pisgah6017East Burke53Pisgah 70% · at Pisgah

9Hibriten6724Forbush45Hibriten 94% · at Hibriten

13Bandys6320West Iredell50Bandys 84% · at Bandys

12Stuart W Cramer6421East Gaston49Stuart W Cramer 86% · at Stuart W Cramer

15Maiden6118Lexington52Maiden 74% · at Maiden

10Wilkes Central6323Ashe County49Wilkes Central 85% · at Wilkes Central

14Brevard5819Newton-Conover55Brevard 59% · at Brevard

11Mount Pleasant6622R-S Central46Mount Pleasant 93% · at Mount Pleasant

Second Round

1Lincoln Charter6616Pisgah46Lincoln Charter 93% · at Lincoln Charter

8North Surry589Hibriten55North Surry 58% · at North Surry

4East Henderson6213Bandys51East Henderson 80% · at East Henderson

5Burns6212Stuart W Cramer50Burns 81% · at Burns

2Central Davidson6515Maiden48Central Davidson 90% · at Central Davidson

7Salisbury6710Wilkes Central46Salisbury 93% · at Salisbury

3West Stokes6414Brevard49West Stokes 88% · at West Stokes

6Lake Norman Charter6311Mount Pleasant50Lake Norman Charter 84% · at Lake Norman Charter

Third Round

1Lincoln Charter648North Surry49Lincoln Charter 87% · at Lincoln Charter

4East Henderson585Burns55East Henderson 61% · at East Henderson

2Central Davidson597Salisbury54Central Davidson 66% · at Central Davidson

3West Stokes556Lake Norman Charter58Lake Norman Charter 59% · at West Stokes

Fourth Round

1Lincoln Charter614East Henderson52Lincoln Charter 75% · at Lincoln Charter

2Central Davidson596Lake Norman Charter53Central Davidson 68% · at Central Davidson

Regional Final

1Lincoln Charter562Central Davidson57Central Davidson 52% · neutral site

State Championship

Reidsville59Central Davidson55Reidsville 62% · neutral site

3A

Projected champion: Farmville Central

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
41	Union Academy	92%	In	—	—	0.4789
42	Owen	89%	In	—	—	0.4616
43	South Columbus	86%	In	—	—	0.4697
On the bubble
44	Surry Central	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.4465
45	Providence Grove	78%	Bubble	—	—	0.4447
46	Bartlett Yancey	74%	Bubble	—	—	0.4393
47	Princeton	65%	Bubble	—	—	0.4294
48	Trinity	58%	Bubble	—	—	0.4249
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Pender	44%	Bubble	—	—	0.4098
50	North Moore	42%	Bubble	—	—	0.4071
51	Beddingfield	37%	Bubble	—	—	0.4053
52	West Lincoln	31%	Bubble	—	—	0.3968
53	Draughn	23%	Bubble	—	—	0.3882
54	West Caldwell	18%	Bubble	—	—	0.3855
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
55	Chase	13%	Out	—	—	0.3740
56	Spring Creek	5%	Out	—	—	0.3604
57	Polk County	4%	Out	—	—	0.3578

48 of 59 3A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16NCSSM: Durham5817Pasquotank County63Pasquotank County 67% · at NCSSM: Durham

9Goldsboro6724Princeton45Goldsboro 94% · at Goldsboro

13Louisburg Magnet6020Wallace-Rose Hill53Louisburg Magnet 70% · at Louisburg Magnet

12Heide Trask5921Hertford County54Heide Trask 67% · at Heide Trask

15South Lenoir5718Eastern Randolph56South Lenoir 51% · at South Lenoir

10Wake Preparatory Academy6523Bartlett Yancey47Wake Preparatory Academy 90% · at Wake Preparatory Academy

14Ayden-Grifton6219Midway51Ayden-Grifton 79% · at Ayden-Grifton

11Whiteville6522South Columbus47Whiteville 91% · at Whiteville

Second Round

1Farmville Central6817Pasquotank County45Farmville Central 95% · at Farmville Central

8Greene Central629Goldsboro51Greene Central 79% · at Greene Central

4Martin County6813Louisburg Magnet45Martin County 95% · at Martin County

5Northwood6512Heide Trask48Northwood 89% · at Northwood

2Northeastern6815South Lenoir44Northeastern 95% · at Northeastern

7West Bladen6010Wake Preparatory Academy53West Bladen 71% · at West Bladen

3Kinston6814Ayden-Grifton44Kinston 95% · at Kinston

6James Kenan5811Whiteville54James Kenan 62% · at James Kenan

Third Round

1Farmville Central618Greene Central52Farmville Central 76% · at Farmville Central

4Martin County615Northwood52Martin County 75% · at Martin County

2Northeastern627West Bladen50Northeastern 82% · at Northeastern

3Kinston666James Kenan47Kinston 91% · at Kinston

Fourth Round

1Farmville Central594Martin County54Farmville Central 66% · at Farmville Central

2Northeastern573Kinston56Northeastern 51% · at Northeastern

Regional Final

1Farmville Central582Northeastern56Farmville Central 58% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Mount Airy5917North Wilkes54Mount Airy 65% · at Mount Airy

9Thomasville6524Trinity48Thomasville 90% · at Thomasville

13Patton6120West Davidson52Patton 74% · at Patton

12Pine Lake Preparatory6621Owen47Pine Lake Preparatory 92% · at Pine Lake Preparatory

15Madison5718Bessemer City56Madison 54% · at Madison

10McMichael6623Providence Grove47McMichael 91% · at McMichael

14Wheatmore5719Union Academy56Wheatmore 52% · at Wheatmore

11East Surry6422Surry Central49East Surry 86% · at East Surry

Second Round

1Hendersonville6916Mount Airy43Hendersonville 96% · at Hendersonville

8North Stanly619Thomasville52North Stanly 74% · at North Stanly

4Lincolnton6713Patton46Lincolnton 93% · at Lincolnton

5East Rutherford5912Pine Lake Preparatory54East Rutherford 64% · at East Rutherford

2Walkertown6915Madison43Walkertown 96% · at Walkertown

7Mountain Heritage5810McMichael55Mountain Heritage 59% · at Mountain Heritage

3Piedmont Community Charter6914Wheatmore41Piedmont Community Charter 97% · at Piedmont Community Charter

6Shelby6311East Surry50Shelby 84% · at Shelby

Third Round

1Hendersonville648North Stanly49Hendersonville 87% · at Hendersonville

4Lincolnton615East Rutherford52Lincolnton 77% · at Lincolnton

2Walkertown667Mountain Heritage47Walkertown 91% · at Walkertown

3Piedmont Community Charter616Shelby49Piedmont Community Charter 82% · at Piedmont Community Charter

Fourth Round

1Hendersonville594Lincolnton53Hendersonville 68% · at Hendersonville

2Walkertown573Piedmont Community Charter53Walkertown 63% · at Walkertown

Regional Final

1Hendersonville562Walkertown58Walkertown 57% · neutral site

State Championship

Farmville Central58Walkertown56Farmville Central 56% · neutral site

2A

Projected champion: Queen's Grant Community

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
39	East Wake Academy	93%	In	—	—	0.4545
40	East Wilkes	93%	In	—	—	0.4363
41	Hobbton	85%	In	—	—	0.4264
On the bubble
42	Henderson Collegiate	84%	Bubble	—	—	0.4215
43	Avery County	82%	Bubble	—	—	0.4211
44	Triangle Math and Science Academy	79%	Bubble	—	—	0.4138
45	Starmount	69%	Bubble	—	—	0.4028
46	American Leadership Academy - Johnston	63%	Bubble	—	—	0.3985
47	Research Triangle	61%	Bubble	—	—	0.3985
48	Pamlico County	54%	Bubble	—	—	0.3921
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Gates County	51%	Bubble	—	—	0.3861
50	Roxboro Community	50%	Bubble	—	—	0.3868
51	Lakewood	40%	Bubble	—	—	0.3778
52	Sugar Creek Charter	25%	Bubble	—	—	0.3665
53	South Stanly	25%	Bubble	—	—	0.3614
54	Union	18%	Bubble	—	—	0.3498
55	Raleigh Charter	16%	Bubble	—	—	0.3507
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
56	Cherryville	12%	Out	—	—	0.3511
57	Langtree Charter Academy	12%	Out	—	—	0.3537
58	Northampton County	11%	Out	—	—	0.3407

48 of 59 2A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16East Wake Academy5517Perquimans County57Perquimans County 57% · at East Wake Academy

9Camden County6824Pamlico County45Camden County 95% · at Camden County

13North Duplin Jr Sr6220Henderson Collegiate50North Duplin Jr Sr 81% · at North Duplin Jr Sr

12Rosewood6321Triangle Math and Science Academy50Rosewood 84% · at Rosewood

15West Columbus6118East Carteret52West Columbus 75% · at West Columbus

10Tarboro6923Research Triangle44Tarboro 96% · at Tarboro

14East Bladen6119Hobbton51East Bladen 79% · at East Bladen

11Lejeune6322American Leadership Academy - Johnston50Lejeune 82% · at Lejeune

Second Round

1Voyager Academy6517Perquimans County47Voyager Academy 90% · at Voyager Academy

8Bertie589Camden County55Bertie 60% · at Bertie

4Holmes6313North Duplin Jr Sr49Holmes 85% · at Holmes

5Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy6112Rosewood52Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy 76% · at Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy

2Franklin Academy6615West Columbus51Franklin Academy 87% · at Franklin Academy

7Southside5210Tarboro61Tarboro 75% · at Southside

3Warren County6214East Bladen50Warren County 82% · at Warren County

6Manteo6111Lejeune51Manteo 78% · at Manteo

Third Round

1Voyager Academy618Bertie50Voyager Academy 80% · at Voyager Academy

4Holmes595Northwest Halifax Collegiate and Technical Academy53Holmes 68% · at Holmes

2Franklin Academy6010Tarboro57Franklin Academy 58% · at Franklin Academy

3Warren County596Manteo54Warren County 64% · at Warren County

Fourth Round

1Voyager Academy604Holmes52Voyager Academy 75% · at Voyager Academy

2Franklin Academy613Warren County56Franklin Academy 66% · at Franklin Academy

Regional Final

1Voyager Academy612Franklin Academy57Voyager Academy 62% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Albemarle6117Elkin52Albemarle 75% · at Albemarle

9North Rowan6824Starmount45North Rowan 95% · at North Rowan

13Eno River Academy5720Highland Tech56Eno River Academy 51% · at Eno River Academy

12Mitchell5821Bradford Preparatory55Mitchell 61% · at Mitchell

15Community School of Davidson6718Swain County46Community School of Davidson 93% · at Community School of Davidson

10Mountain Island Charter6523Avery County48Mountain Island Charter 90% · at Mountain Island Charter

14Corvian Community6019Christ the King53Corvian Community 72% · at Corvian Community

11Hayesville5922East Wilkes54Hayesville 66% · at Hayesville

Second Round

1Queen's Grant Community7616Albemarle37Queen's Grant Community 98% · at Queen's Grant Community

8Piedmont Classical549North Rowan59North Rowan 65% · at Piedmont Classical

4South Stokes6813Eno River Academy44South Stokes 95% · at South Stokes

5Alleghany6012Mitchell53Alleghany 69% · at Alleghany

2Cherokee5915Community School of Davidson54Cherokee 65% · at Cherokee

7Cornerstone Charter Academy5510Mountain Island Charter58Mountain Island Charter 61% · at Cornerstone Charter Academy

3Bishop McGuinness6414Corvian Community49Bishop McGuinness 87% · at Bishop McGuinness

6Murphy6011Hayesville52Murphy 73% · at Murphy

Third Round

1Queen's Grant Community729North Rowan41Queen's Grant Community 98% · at Queen's Grant Community

4South Stokes645Alleghany49South Stokes 86% · at South Stokes

2Cherokee5910Mountain Island Charter54Cherokee 64% · at Cherokee

3Bishop McGuinness686Murphy45Bishop McGuinness 95% · at Bishop McGuinness

Fourth Round

1Queen's Grant Community694South Stokes43Queen's Grant Community 96% · at Queen's Grant Community

2Cherokee523Bishop McGuinness60Bishop McGuinness 72% · at Cherokee

Regional Final

1Queen's Grant Community663Bishop McGuinness48Queen's Grant Community 90% · neutral site

State Championship

Queen's Grant Community70Voyager Academy43Queen's Grant Community 97% · neutral site

1A

Projected champion: Southern Wake Academy

RPI bubble

	School	Playoff chance	Status	RPI today	Rank today	Projected RPI
Edge of the bubble: last teams safely in
41	Jones	91%	In	—	—	0.3835
42	Nantahala	90%	In	—	—	0.3792
43	Sallie B Howard	90%	In	—	—	0.4040
On the bubble
44	KIPP Pride	80%	Bubble	—	—	0.3856
45	Bear Grass Charter	77%	Bubble	—	—	0.3751
46	Ocracoke	69%	Bubble	—	—	0.3561
47	Triad Math and Science Academy	68%	Bubble	—	—	0.3476
48	Summit Charter	63%	Bubble	—	—	0.3431
Projected cut · top 48 make the field
49	Central Carolina Academy	61%	Bubble	—	—	0.3426
50	Blue Ridge Early College	40%	Bubble	—	—	0.3251
51	South Davidson Middle and	39%	Bubble	—	—	0.3239
52	NCSSM: Morganton	33%	Bubble	—	—	0.3235
53	North East Carolina Prep	25%	Bubble	—	—	0.3091
Edge of the bubble: first teams out
54	Millennium Charter Academy	3%	Out	—	—	0.2772

48 of 54 1A teams make the field. Teams are listed by their chance of finishing in it, from the season simulation, which plays out the games each team has left; the dashed line is where the field is projected to be cut, and the bracket is drawn from the teams above it. RPI today and Rank today are our RPI, computed with NCHSAA's formula from the games stored, as it stands: the top 48 would make it if the season ended now. Projected RPI is the average final RPI across the simulated seasons. The order goes by playoff chance, which also counts how far a team's finish could swing either way, so two teams close in projected RPI can sit a place or two apart.

Projected bracket

48 teams, 32-team bracket per region, seeded on projected final RPI.

East

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Hobgood Charter5217Sallie B Howard60Sallie B Howard 73% · at Hobgood Charter

9Weldon STEM7024Ocracoke43Weldon STEM 97% · at Weldon STEM

13East Columbus Junior-Senior6120Rocky Mount Preparatory51East Columbus Junior-Senior 78% · at East Columbus Junior-Senior

12Washington County6321KIPP Pride49Washington County 86% · at Washington County

15Mattamuskeet5718Excelsior Classical Academy55Mattamuskeet 56% · at Mattamuskeet

10Columbia6323Bear Grass Charter49Columbia 85% · at Columbia

14Oxford Preparatory6319Cape Hatteras Secondary50Oxford Preparatory 83% · at Oxford Preparatory

11Falls Lake Academy6522Jones47Falls Lake Academy 91% · at Falls Lake Academy

Second Round

1Southern Wake Academy7017Sallie B Howard43Southern Wake Academy 97% · at Southern Wake Academy

8Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy599Weldon STEM53Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy 67% · at Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy

4Wilson Preparatory Academy6713East Columbus Junior-Senior45Wilson Preparatory Academy 94% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

5North Edgecombe6412Washington County49North Edgecombe 86% · at North Edgecombe

2Vance Charter7015Mattamuskeet42Vance Charter 97% · at Vance Charter

7Woods Charter6210Columbia51Woods Charter 81% · at Woods Charter

3Northside6414Oxford Preparatory49Northside 86% · at Northside

6Neuse Charter5911Falls Lake Academy54Neuse Charter 66% · at Neuse Charter

Third Round

1Southern Wake Academy678Southeast Collegiate Prep Academy46Southern Wake Academy 93% · at Southern Wake Academy

4Wilson Preparatory Academy595North Edgecombe53Wilson Preparatory Academy 68% · at Wilson Preparatory Academy

2Vance Charter627Woods Charter50Vance Charter 82% · at Vance Charter

3Northside606Neuse Charter52Northside 73% · at Northside

Fourth Round

1Southern Wake Academy614Wilson Preparatory Academy52Southern Wake Academy 75% · at Southern Wake Academy

2Vance Charter613Northside52Vance Charter 76% · at Vance Charter

Regional Final

1Southern Wake Academy632Vance Charter51Southern Wake Academy 81% · neutral site

West

First Round

Byes: seeds 1-8

16Carolina International6117North Stokes52Carolina International 76% · at Carolina International

9Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper7124Summit Charter42Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper 97% · at Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper

13Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad6820Ascend Leadership Academy: Lee County45Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad 94% · at Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad

12The North Carolina Leadership Academy5721Bonnie Cone Leadership Academy56The North Carolina Leadership Academy 51% · at The North Carolina Leadership Academy

15Clover Garden6218Rosman51Clover Garden 79% · at Clover Garden

10Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy7123Triad Math and Science Academy42Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 97% · at Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy

14College Prep and Leadership Academy6519River Mill Academy47College Prep and Leadership Academy 90% · at College Prep and Leadership Academy

11Highlands6122Nantahala52Highlands 75% · at Highlands

Second Round

1Andrews6316Carolina International50Andrews 83% · at Andrews

8Hiwassee Dam559Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper58Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper 59% · at Hiwassee Dam

4Robbinsville6013Winston-Salem Preparatory Acad52Robbinsville 72% · at Robbinsville

5Jackson Day6812The North Carolina Leadership Academy42Jackson Day 96% · at Jackson Day

2Chatham Charter6915Clover Garden44Chatham Charter 96% · at Chatham Charter

7Bethany Community5510Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy58Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy 58% · at Bethany Community

3Chatham Central6614College Prep and Leadership Academy47Chatham Central 91% · at Chatham Central

6Discovery Charter School6911Highlands48Discovery Charter School 93% · at Discovery Charter School

Third Round

1Andrews649Phoenix Academy - Primary Elem Upper49Andrews 86% · at Andrews

4Robbinsville515Jackson Day59Jackson Day 72% · at Robbinsville

2Chatham Charter6010Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy53Chatham Charter 70% · at Chatham Charter

3Chatham Central656Discovery Charter School52Chatham Central 85% · at Chatham Central

Fourth Round

1Andrews545Jackson Day56Jackson Day 55% · at Andrews

2Chatham Charter573Chatham Central56Chatham Charter 53% · at Chatham Charter

Regional Final

2Chatham Charter535Jackson Day59Jackson Day 67% · neutral site

State Championship

Southern Wake Academy59Jackson Day52Southern Wake Academy 72% · neutral site