March 29, 2024

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4A/4AA Contenders?
 
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4A/4AA Contenders?

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Jim West
(@jimwest)
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Here are the leading 12 candidates to play in the 4AA West:

Richmond County
Mallard Creek
West Forsyth
Myers Park
Ardrey Kell
Pinecrest
Vance
Butler
Olympic
Reagan
Hough
Independence

I would guess that 5 of the state's best 10 football teams will be playing in the 4AA West.  The Richmond County Raiders have been playing lights out the entire season.  Myers Park have been winning their games, on average, 51 to 7.  West Forsyth might have the best football team in the Triad.  Vance's defense has been absolutely outstanding.   While Butler has lost 3 games this year (Mallard Creek, Richmond County, Myers Park), they are still a tough out (and Butler might actually sink to 4A, and if so, watch out!).  Mallard Creek has been a force the entire season, playing a very tough non-conference schedule while also playing in a very tough conference.  My gut tells me that the championship will come down between Myers Park and Mallard Creek, but several other teams could definitely upset that potential match-up.

 

Here are the 12 most viable candidates to play in the 4AA East:

 

Wake Forest
Leesville Road
Holly Springs
Green Hope
Hoggard
Panther Creek
Friendship
Rolesville
Hoke County
Wakefield
Millbrook
Garner

The 4AA East is not nearly as strong as the 4AA West.  Wake Forest might not be as good as they have been the past 3 seasons, but I still believe they are the team to beat.  Leesville Road, a pragmatic team that minimizes mistakes, will be their toughest opponent.  I would not whatsoever discount Rolesville, a team that took Wake Forest to overtime during the regular season.

Here are the 12 most viable candidates out of the 4A West:

Grimsley
East Forsyth
Ragsdale
Scotland
Glenn
Hickory Ridge
Mooresville
Davie County
Lake Norman
Porter Ridge
West Mecklenburg
South Caldwell

Scotland could play in the 4A East (probably a 50/50 proposition), but should they play in the West, they will be one tough out.  East Forsyth has somewhat struggled this year, but they are still loaded.  Grimsley has played their finest football in over a decade.  Several other teams, such as Glenn, Hickory Ridge, Mooresville, and Davie County), will make this region a dog fight.

 

...and the 12 most viable candidates to play in the 4A East.

New Bern
South View
Cardinal Gibbons
Heritage
Jack Britt
Middle Creek
Riverside
Seventy-First
Jordan
Knightdale
South Central
Pine Forest

Is their a clear 4A East favorite?  Hardly.  I believe this region is all about who protects the ball the best and who can play the best defense.  Heritage is playing their best ball of the season right now, so it's hard to dismiss the Huskies.  Cardinal Gibbons can simply light up the scoreboard.  South View seems to have struggled recently, but they will be one tough out.  New Bern is really good, but they have played only 1 4A team the entire year, so it's hard to gauge how good the Bears are this year.  Jack Britt and Seventy-First, on the other hand, are very battle-tested.  The 4A East is simply up for grabs.


   
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NBBears12
(@nbbears12)
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Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 8
 
Posted by: @jimwest

Here are the leading 12 candidates to play in the 4AA West:

Richmond County
Mallard Creek
West Forsyth
Myers Park
Ardrey Kell
Pinecrest
Vance
Butler
Olympic
Reagan
Hough
Independence

I would guess that 5 of the state's best 10 football teams will be playing in the 4AA West.  The Richmond County Raiders have been playing lights out the entire season.  Myers Park have been winning their games, on average, 51 to 7.  West Forsyth might have the best football team in the Triad.  Vance's defense has been absolutely outstanding.   While Butler has lost 3 games this year (Mallard Creek, Richmond County, Myers Park), they are still a tough out (and Butler might actually sink to 4A, and if so, watch out!).  Mallard Creek has been a force the entire season, playing a very tough non-conference schedule while also playing in a very tough conference.  My gut tells me that the championship will come down between Myers Park and Mallard Creek, but several other teams could definitely upset that potential match-up.

 

Here are the 12 most viable candidates to play in the 4AA East:

 

Wake Forest
Leesville Road
Holly Springs
Green Hope
Hoggard
Panther Creek
Friendship
Rolesville
Hoke County
Wakefield
Millbrook
Garner

The 4AA East is not nearly as strong as the 4AA West.  Wake Forest might not be as good as they have been the past 3 seasons, but I still believe they are the team to beat.  Leesville Road, a pragmatic team that minimizes mistakes, will be their toughest opponent.  I would not whatsoever discount Rolesville, a team that took Wake Forest to overtime during the regular season.

Here are the 12 most viable candidates out of the 4A West:

Grimsley
East Forsyth
Ragsdale
Scotland
Glenn
Hickory Ridge
Mooresville
Davie County
Lake Norman
Porter Ridge
West Mecklenburg
South Caldwell

Scotland could play in the 4A East (probably a 50/50 proposition), but should they play in the West, they will be one tough out.  East Forsyth has somewhat struggled this year, but they are still loaded.  Grimsley has played their finest football in over a decade.  Several other teams, such as Glenn, Hickory Ridge, Mooresville, and Davie County), will make this region a dog fight.

 

...and the 12 most viable candidates to play in the 4A East.

New Bern
South View
Cardinal Gibbons
Heritage
Jack Britt
Middle Creek
Riverside
Seventy-First
Jordan
Knightdale
South Central
Pine Forest

Is their a clear 4A East favorite?  Hardly.  I believe this region is all about who protects the ball the best and who can play the best defense.  Heritage is playing their best ball of the season right now, so it's hard to dismiss the Huskies.  Cardinal Gibbons can simply light up the scoreboard.  South View seems to have struggled recently, but they will be one tough out.  New Bern is really good, but they have played only 1 4A team the entire year, so it's hard to gauge how good the Bears are this year.  Jack Britt and Seventy-First, on the other hand, are very battle-tested.  The 4A East is simply up for grabs.

Wouldn't judge a team by how many larger schools they play. In my opinion, too much emphasis is put on ADM's. New Bern has a ADM of over 1600 kids and a varsity roster south of 40 kids. Three of those 30+ kids kick or punt, one being a female who made history this year for the Bears. New Bern only has one other 4A school in the conference and that isn't changing anytime soon. However, I do agree with you that 4A is wide open, both east and west. 


   
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Jim West
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Posts: 130
Topic starter  

Not judging...I merely stated that it's hard to gauge how good New Bern really is when they have not had much competition among 4A squads.  Now New Bern has played some good 3A teams, most notably Havelock, Conley, and Jacksonville, and one stout 2A team (West Craven), but it's still hard to gauge a 4A squad that hasn't played against much 4A competition.

I mentioned the same thing last year regarding South Central.  South Central had gone undefeated in 2018, beating 5 2A schools, 5 3A schools, and 1 4A school (ironically, Da Bears).  I even predicted that South Central would lose in their 2nd round game against South View (South View won 33-32).

All that being stated, I do agree that we shouldn't judge a team entirely on their strength of schedule.  The 2016 4AA champs Wake Forest played a relatively weak schedule, went undefeated, and then dominated Page in the championship game.  Wake Forest was also hard to gauge and many of us didn't know quite how strong the Cougars were.  I think Wake Forest intercepted the ball 6 times and played some of the best defense ever witnessed in a state championship game.

From the release of the preliminary brackets, New Bern will get a 1st round bye and then play the winner of Riverside Durham/71st, and I would predict that New Bern should handle either team.  For me, it will be hard to gauge who could win in a possible match-up between New Bern and Cardinal Gibbons.  


   
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NBBears12
(@nbbears12)
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Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 8
 

You have to go 2 hours from New Bern in order to find another 4A school. 

Most in our area knew South Central wasn't as good as their record last year and it was proven quickly in the playoffs. 

Of the 55 TD's that New Bern has accounted for this year -- 51 of them were scored by underclassmen. They only lose 1 offensive linemen on O and will return 7 guys on D. They have 14 9th/10th graders on their 40 man roster. Team is extremely young but also extremely talented. We'll see who we face first. Either a team that has 3,000 yards passing, or a team that has 400 carries on the year. 

Scotland, Gibbons and South View are the favorites. We're just playing with house money this year. 


   
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Jim West
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Posts: 130
Topic starter  

@nbbears12

You hit the nail on the head.  As recent as 2016, Rose and Conley were both 4A squads.  Going back further, Havelock was briefly a 4A team (2001-2005) along with Northern Nash and Rocky Mount.  Even further back (as late as 2000), Northeastern was 4A.  Today, Northeastern is a small 2A squad while Havelock, Northern Nash, Rocky Mount, Rose, and Conley are 3A squads.

Very few understand how tough it is to be a school in Eastern NC.  I don't care what conference the schools in (except possibly the 3A/4A Mideastern), the geography is very tough to travel.  Long drives, long nights.  It pays hell on non-revenue sports.  

At the 1989-1993 realignment, New Bern was in the same 4A only conference with Eastern Wayne, Goldsboro, Hoggard, Jacksonville, Laney, New Hanover, and Southern Wayne.  

This is one of the many reasons why I love the New Bern Bear football program.  It takes a rare guy like Bobby Curlings, a man who is a good as you can ever imagine, to overlook those obstacles and impairments to produce championship football teams.  I would rank Bobby Curlings as one of the top 10 best ever football coaches in North Carolina.  Coach Nowell is also a proven winner.  One of the biggest stories ever that was not mentioned was how his small program from Bayboro reached the 2018 state championship game.  His squad didn't even have 30 players dressed.  They lost, but I will tell you, that was one determined team.

 


   
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