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Update: Jim's 1A/2A Playoff Projections after Week 12 (with 2018 ADMs)
Last Post 11/09/2018 9:03 AM by RaiderTrap. 19 Replies.
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Jim West Posts:2280
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11/07/2018 2:27 PM 0
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1A East

 

(1) Northampton County (bye)

(9) Weldon at (8) Southside

(4) Gates County (bye)

(12) Northside-Pinetown at (5) Rosewood

(3) Pamlico (bye)

(11) North Duplin at (6) North Edgecombe

(2) Bear Grass Charter (bye)

(10) Washington County at (7) South Creek

 

1A West

 

(1) Thomas Jefferson  (bye)

(9) Bishop McGuinness at (8) Cherokee

(4) Robbinsville (bye)

(12) Rosman at (5) East Wilkes

(3) Murphy (bye)

(11) Albemarle at (6) Alleghany

(2) Mitchell (bye)

(10) East Columbus at (7) Elkin

 

1AA East

 

(1) Tarboro (bye)

(9) Manteo at (8) South Stanly 

(4) Granville Central (bye) 

(12) West Montgomery at (5) East Carteret

(3) Holmes (bye)

(11) Louisburg at (6) Riverside-Martin

(2) Princeton (bye)

(10) Hobbton at (7) Lakewood

 

1AA West

 

(1) Mount Airy (bye)

(9) Mountain Island Charter at (8) Swain

(4) North Rowan (bye)

(12) Highland at (5) East Surry

(3) Starmount (bye)

(11) Polk at (6) Bessemer City

(2) North Stanly (bye)

(10) Community School of Davidson at (7) Cherryville

 

Last four teams in the 1A/1AA playoffs: Louisburg, West Montgomery, Highland, Rosman

Last four teams out of the 1A/1AA playoffs:  Union Academy, Pine Lake Prep, Southeast Halifax, Avery 

 

2A East

 

(16) Goldsboro at (1) South Granville

(9) Eastern Randolph at (8) Beddingfield

(12) James Kenan at (5) Southwest Onslow

(13) Ayden-Grifton at (4) Kinston

(14) Bertie at (3) South Columbus

(11) Whiteville at (6) Clinton

(10) Wallace-Rose Hill at (7) East Bladen

(15) Greene Central at (2) Northeastern

 

2A West

 

(16) Lexington at (1) Randleman

(9) Maiden at (8) Brevard

(12) Patton at (5) West Stanly

(13) Providence Grove at (4) Wheatmore

(14) Owen at (3) Mountain Heritage

(11) Thomasville at (6) North Surry

(10) Hendersonville at (7) East Rutherford

(15) Oak Grove at (2) Reidsville

 

2AA East

 

(16) Vance County at (1)  SouthWest Edgecombe

(9) Bunn at (8) Croatan

(12) Richlands at (5) West Craven

(13) First Flight at (4) North Davidson

(14) Washington at (3) East Duplin

(11) Saint Pauls at (6) Hertford County

(10) Currituck at (7) Cummings

(15) Carrboro at (2) Ledford

 

2AA West

 

(16) East Lincoln at (1) Pisgah

(9) Smoky Mountain at (8) North Lincoln

(12) Salisbury at (5) Ashe County

(13) West Lincoln at (4) Shelby

(14) Franklin at (3) Bandys

(11) Fred T. Foard at (6) West Stokes

(10) South Point at (7) Mount Pleasant

(15) East Henderson at (2) Hibriten

 

Last Four 2A/2AA teams in the playoffs:  East Lincoln, Carrboro, Lexington, Vance County

Last Four 2A/2AA teams out of the playoffs:  Roanoke Rapids, T.W. Andrews, Newton-Conover, North Wilkes

Shaked Bar-tal Posts:79 Freshman Member Freshman Member
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11/07/2018 2:40 PM 0
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Hi Jim, wouldn't MP be moving down to 2A West or still go to 2AA East based off the new adms?
Jim West Posts:2280
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11/07/2018 5:23 PM 0
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Posted By Shaked Bar-tal on 11/07/2018 2:40 PM
Hi Jim, wouldn't MP be moving down to 2A West or still go to 2AA East based off the new adms?

 

Step 1:  Determine the teams that qualify for the playoffs (64 2A teams).

Step 2:  Subdivide between 2A and 2AA.  Based on the teams that I project to make the playoffs, Mount Pleasant is the 26th largest team (ADM 861) which puts them in the 2AA playoffs.  The dividing line betwen 2A and 2AA is South Granville (ADM 836) and Southwest Edgecombe (ADM 838).  So the first part of your question, the answer is "no based on the teams I have projected for the playoffs".

Step 3:  Separate the 2AA teams between East and West based on longitudinal lines.  Of the 32 2AA teams, Mount Pleasant (longitude 80.482) is the 15th most western team, so they would go to the West.  The dividing line is between West Stokes (80.375) and North Davidson (80.249).  So the answer to the 2nd part of your question is "no based on the teams I have projected for the playoffs".

 

Shaked Bar-tal Posts:79 Freshman Member Freshman Member
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11/07/2018 6:25 PM 0
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Posted By Jim West on 11/07/2018 5:23 PM
Posted By Shaked Bar-tal on 11/07/2018 2:40 PM

Hi Jim, wouldn't MP be moving down to 2A West or still go to 2AA East based off the new adms?


 



Step 1:  Determine the teams that qualify for the playoffs (64 2A teams).



Step 2:  Subdivide between 2A and 2AA.  Based on the teams that I project to make the playoffs, Mount Pleasant is the 26th largest team (ADM 861) which puts them in the 2AA playoffs.  The dividing line betwen 2A and 2AA is South Granville (ADM 836) and Southwest Edgecombe (ADM 838).  So the first part of your question, the answer is "no based on the teams I have projected for the playoffs".



Step 3:  Separate the 2AA teams between East and West based on longitudinal lines.  Of the 32 2AA teams, Mount Pleasant (longitude 80.482) is the 15th most western team, so they would go to the West.  The dividing line is between West Stokes (80.375) and North Davidson (80.249).  So the answer to the 2nd part of your question is "no based on the teams I have projected for the playoffs".



 



I see so the only hope for MP to go to 2AA East is to have some team making the playoff West of MP. It will be interesting to see with the final projecting coming out on Saturday morning what suprise we will see as far seeding goes etc.
Slash Posts:102 Sophomore Member Sophomore Member
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11/07/2018 9:35 PM 0
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It's crazy seeing us small 2A.. lowest numbers North Surry has had since the 1960's. It's also crazy to think we coulda played Patton again if we had beaten Elkin. I'll take that 6th seed draw though.

My dream matchup for round 2 with MA may happen if they get MI Charter.. That will be a high scoring slugfust as they can match MA's speed. Just not sure if they can match MA's physicality or not. East Wilkes going small is a surprise but they can do better there; still years too late though. I see Adkins 2015 and 2017 teams making it deep in small 1A. Starmount vs CSD's gonna be a thriller; CSD played us tough so I see them playing Starmount the same. CSD may have enough athletes to give them troubles all night.
Jim West Posts:2280
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11/07/2018 9:42 PM 0
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Posted By Slash on 11/07/2018 9:35 PM
It's crazy seeing us small 2A.. lowest numbers North Surry has had since the 1960's. It's also crazy to think we coulda played Patton again if we had beaten Elkin. I'll take that 6th seed draw though.

My dream matchup for round 2 with MA may happen if they get MI Charter.. That will be a high scoring slugfust as they can match MA's speed. Just not sure if they can match MA's physicality or not. East Wilkes going small is a surprise but they can do better there; still years too late though. I see Adkins 2015 and 2017 teams making it deep in small 1A. Starmount vs CSD's gonna be a thriller; CSD played us tough so I see them playing Starmount the same. CSD may have enough athletes to give them troubles all night.

 

If Mountain Island Charter was at full strength, I think they would give Mount Airy a whale of a game.  I don't know if that is the case at this juncture of the season, but some of their reserves seem to be ready.  This would be a fun game to watch but I think Mount Airy and their home field would have the upper hand.

 

Jim West Posts:2280
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11/07/2018 9:58 PM 0
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Correction: I've moved Starmount from #7 to #3. For whatever reason, I realized that I was seeding Starmount as an at-large team although they are the projected winner of the 1A portion of the 1A/2A Mountain Valley Conference and they finished in the top 3 within conference (I seeded them as an at-large team because of a sub .500 overall record but if they finish in the top 3, it doesn't matter).

North Rowan moves from a 3 seed to a 4 seed.
East Surry moves from a 4 seed to a 5 seed.
Bessemer City moves from a 5 seed to a 6 seed.
Cherryville moves from a 6 seed to a 7 seed.
Jim West Posts:2280
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11/07/2018 10:06 PM 0
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Another correction: Bunn moves from the #7 seed to #9 seed. Bunn finished 2nd in their 2A portion of their conference but finished 3rd overall (1A/2A Northern Carolina). As such, they are seeded as a 3rd place automatic qualifier. Cummings moves from the 8 seed to the 7 seed and Croatan moves from the 9 seed to the 8 seed.
Smoking Gunz Posts:43 Freshman Member Freshman Member
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11/07/2018 10:30 PM 0
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Jim, the adjusted MaxPreps rankings as of 11/5 doesn't factor in Mountain Island Charter victory over Highland Tech on 11/5. This puts Mountain Island Charter at 7-4, not 6-4. This would be the same record as Cherryville at 7-4. Mountain Island Charter holds the tiebreaker over Cherryville. Mountain Island Charter will be ranked higher than Cherryville.

Jim West Posts:2280
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11/07/2018 10:55 PM 0
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Posted By Smoking Gunz on 11/07/2018 10:30 PM

Jim, the adjusted MaxPreps rankings as of 11/5 doesn't factor in Mountain Island Charter victory over Highland Tech on 11/5. This puts Mountain Island Charter at 7-4, not 6-4. This would be the same record as Cherryville at 7-4. Mountain Island Charter holds the tiebreaker over Cherryville. Mountain Island Charter will be ranked higher than Cherryville.

 

Tiebreakers are used on whether a team will get an automatic seed or an at-large seed.  Both Mountain Island Charter and Cherryville will get at-large bids and as such they are seeded based on their adjusted MaxPreps rankings regardless on how they finish within the conference.

The new rule incorporated this year prevents a team from qualifying for the playoffs if a team that finishes higher in the conference does not qualify.  Call it the "Trask rule".  

As far as Mountain Island Charter defeating Highland, it will help their adjusted MaxPreps rankings.  I don't know at this point whether it will leap frog MICS ahead of Cherryville.

 

allenjd4life Posts:303 Junior Member Junior Member
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11/08/2018 1:04 AM 0
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Maiden survives Lincolnton 13 to 0 should keep them round that 11-9 range
Champ Posts:7 Middle School Middle School
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11/08/2018 9:53 AM 0
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Sounds like North Stanley was close to going 1AA east. What would need to happen to push them east?
Shaked Bar-tal Posts:79 Freshman Member Freshman Member
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11/08/2018 11:02 AM 0
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Jim, the adjusted MaxPreps rankings as of 11/5 doesn't factor in Mount Pleasant 46-6 win over West Stanly. Do you think ones it's factor in could change the seeding for MP maybe move them to East?
Jim West Posts:2280
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11/08/2018 11:53 AM 0
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Posted By Shaked Bar-tal on 11/08/2018 11:02 AM
Jim, the adjusted MaxPreps rankings as of 11/5 doesn't factor in Mount Pleasant 46-6 win over West Stanly. Do you think ones it's factor in could change the seeding for MP maybe move them to East?


Mount Pleasant’s seeding might swap with West Stokes. As far as this win goes, it will have no impact on the Tigers going East or West.
84k Posts:549 Senior Member Senior Member
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11/08/2018 12:31 PM 0
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Jim, how can West Stanly be seated higher than Mount Pleasant when Mount Pleasant won the conference and West Stanly finish second.
Jim West Posts:2280
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11/08/2018 1:52 PM 0
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Posted By 84k on 11/08/2018 12:31 PM
Jim, how can West Stanly be seated higher than Mount Pleasant when Mount Pleasant won the conference and West Stanly finish second.


Mount Pleasant is 2AA and West Stanly is 2A. In the 2AA West, there are 7 conference champions. In the 2A West, there are only 3 conference champions. Mount Pleasant was the 7th conference champion seeded. West stanly was seeded behind 3 conference champion and 1 2nd place conference team.
84k Posts:549 Senior Member Senior Member
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11/08/2018 2:14 PM 0
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This new seeding process is crazy. So winning your conference Championship really doesn't mean anything based on your explanation for seating purpose.
Smoking Gunz Posts:43 Freshman Member Freshman Member
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11/08/2018 4:49 PM 0
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Mountain Island Charter finished higher than Cherryville in the conference. We'll see how it shakes out Saturday. Thanks for giving us insight and understanding.
Jim West Posts:2280
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11/08/2018 6:42 PM 0
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Posted By 84k on 11/08/2018 2:14 PM
This new seeding process is crazy. So winning your conference Championship really doesn't mean anything based on your explanation for seating purpose.


With Mt. Pleasant/West Stanly, the subdividing is the problem. Had West Stanly finished 1st and Mount Pleasant finished 2nd, West Stanly would have been seeded 4th in the 2A and Mount Pleasant would have been seeded 10th in the 2AA. So it matters, but the subdividing adds a major curve in the process.
RaiderTrap Posts:36 Freshman Member Freshman Member
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11/09/2018 9:03 AM 0
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There is no way for this format makes sense. It is the most absurd attempt and I am challenged to call this an honest attempt to bracket teams based on what most of us know is legitimate. It's incomprehensible that this is the best product the NCHSAA could come up with to sort who is the best teams and how do you bracket them equitably. I use SP as the bases for my argument but I speak for the many schools and players effected negatively by the 2018 playoff system controlled by our very own NCHSAA.
* South Point beats East Rutherfordton at ER by 2 touchdowns
* South Point finished 2nd to Shelby while ER finished 3rd in the conference
* ER (2A) gets a 7 seed and plays the first round at home. SP(2AA) gets a 10 seed with no home games.
*Strength of schedule.....If a 2A or 2AA conference had 3 teams as good as Shelby, SP and ER I am not aware of it
Yes I am bias relative to my relationship to SP but this scenario encompasses all brackets across 1A, 2A, 3A and 4A because the NCHSAA failed to do their job and the 2018 season is marred because of their inept decision to format the teams in this concoction.
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